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Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories. The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders. Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters. Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations. Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data. Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood. A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts: Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan. Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations. Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability. Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems. Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response. Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research. Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend. Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally. With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.

Open-File Report↗

Pesticide concentrations associated with augmented flow pulses in the Yolo Bypass and Cache Slough Complex, California

Surface-water and suspended-sediment samples were collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for multiple current-use pesticides and pesticide degradates approximately every 2 weeks at up to five sites in the Yolo Bypass and Cache Slough Complex before, during, and after augmented flow pulses in summer and fall 2016 and 2018 as well as during ambient flow conditions in summer and fall 2017 (no flow pulse). In 2016, augmented flows occurred during the summer (July) and required the pumping of Sacramento River water by local Reclamation Districts into the Colusa Basin Drain and Yolo Bypass Toe Drain. In contrast, augmented flows in 2018 occurred in the fall (August–September) and used agricultural tailwater (primarily rice field discharge water) to create the flow pulse. Water samples were analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for a suite of 175 current-use pesticides and pesticide degradates using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry laboratory methods. Suspended sediments filtered from the water samples were analyzed for 143 pesticides and degradates by gas chromatography with mass spectrometry. During the study, 53 pesticides were detected, and all the samples contained mixtures of multiple pesticides at concentrations ranging from below method detection limits to 8,780 nanograms per liter. Pesticides used in growing rice were the dominant pesticides present at four of the five sites sampled and urban-use pesticides dominated at the remaining site. Overall, total pesticide concentrations tended to be higher at sites in the northern part of the Yolo Bypass and lower at southern sites, except for the farthest downstream site which received additional pesticide inputs from the Sacramento River. Flow-pulse water source influenced total pesticide concentrations in the Yolo Bypass and Cache Slough Complex, and the highest total pesticide concentrations at each site were detected either immediately before or during the flow pulse generated with agricultural tailwater in 2018. Data gathered during this study will aid the California Department of Water Resources and other agencies working in the region in adaptively managing pulse flows in the Yolo Bypass and Cache Slough Complex, as one of several California Natural Resources Agency’s Delta Smelt Resiliency strategies.

California↗

Spectrographic and chemical analyses of drill core from Precambrian igneous rocks of the St. Francois igneous province in southeast Missouri

Seventy-nine samples of igneous rock from drill holes in and near the Rolla, Missouri, 2° quadrangle were collected and catalogued by the Division of Geology and Land Survey of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources. Spectrographic and chemical analyses were performed to characterize some of the major, minor, and trace element contents of these subsurface samples. The analytical results for these samples are given in this report.

Missouri↗

Water-level changes in the High Plains aquifer, Republican River Basin in Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska, 2002 to 2015

The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.8 million acres (about 175,000 square miles) in parts of eight States—Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. More than 95 percent of the water withdrawn from the High Plains aquifer is used for irrigation. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the beginning of substantial irrigation with groundwater in the aquifer area (about 1950). The Republican River Basin is 15.9 million acres (about 25,000 square miles) and is located in northeast Colorado, northern Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. The Republican River Basin overlies the High Plains aquifer for 87 percent of the basin area. Water-level declines had begun in parts of the High Plains aquifer within the Republican River Basin by 1964. In 2002, management practices were enacted in the Middle Republican Natural Resources District in Nebraska to comply with the Republican River Compact Final Settlement. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Middle Republican Natural Resources District, completed a study of water-level changes in the High Plains aquifer within the Republican River Basin from 2002 to 2015 to enable the Middle Republican Natural Resources District to assess the effect of the management practices, which were specified by the Republican River Compact Final Settlement. Water-level changes determined from this study are presented in this report. Water-level changes from 2002 to 2015 in the High Plains aquifer within the Republican River Basin, by well, ranged from a rise of 9.4 feet to a decline of 43.2 feet. The area-weighted, average water-level change from 2002 to 2015 in this part of the aquifer was a decline of 4.5 feet.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗

Hydrology of subsurface waste disposal, National Reactor Testing Station, Idaho: Annual progress report for 1964

The principal purpose of the past research program on geohydrology at the NRTS has been to acquire information on the physical and geochemical environment of the station. This requires a knowledge of the composition and structure of the earth materials underlying the plain, the inventory of the water resources, the dynamics of natural and man-produced changes in the hydrologic regimen, details of the hydrologic cycle, and relevant geochemical processes. The Geological Survey in the course of its early studies by Nace and others (IDO 22033-34-USGS) obtained, compiled, and analyzed a considerable amount of basic geologic and hydrologic information on these subjects. These basic goals were expanded and carried forward to guide the continuing research work. Jones (IDO 22042-USGS) emphasized the use of borehole geophysics and specialized down-hole techniques. Olmsted (IDO 22043-USGS) made a preliminary appraisal of the nature and distribution of the quality of ground water beneath the Station. Their work has been continued and elaborated upon by Morris and others (IDO 22044-USGS, 46-USGS) and the present report with greater emphasis on the regional geology and hydrology. This involved some procurement of needed information but, for the most part, involved a continued evaluation and refinement of data and results that had been acquired in the past. The Geological Survey also encouraged a more comprehensive study of the regional geologic structure including the use of aeromagnetic, gravity, and seismic geophysical techniques and cosponsored a seminar on it in 1964. Along with this investigation and study of the regional geology and of hydrologic principles operative in the basalt environment, and made possible because of it, research continues on the-hydrologic aspects of the disposal of low-level aqueous waste to the environment.

Idaho↗

National Research Program of the Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey, Fiscal Year 1992

This report, one in a series of annual reports, provides current information about the National Research Program (NRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division (WRD) during fiscal year 1992. Organized by NRP's six research disciplines, the volume contains a summary of the problem, objective, approach, and progress for each project that was active during fiscal year 1992. It also contains bibliographic information that, because of the long-term nature of the program, covers a 5-year period. The bibliographic information does not include abstracts or informal reports. Rather it contains those reports that are readily available in the form of journal articles, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications, book chapters, or books.

Open-File Report↗

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example. “As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

Wyoming↗

U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park campus: Self-guided tour

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), established by an act of Congress in 1879, is the Nation's largest natural science and civilian mapping agency. The USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific information. This information is used to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, safeguard the Nation's natural resources, and enhance quality of life through careful monitoring of water, biological, energy, and mineral resources.

California↗

National Research Program of the Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, Fiscal Year 1993

INTRODUCTION This report, one in a series of annual reports, provides current information about the National Research Program (NRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water Resources Division (WRD) during fiscal year 1993. Organized by NRP's six research disciplines, the volume contains a summary of the problem, objective, approach, and progress for each project that was active during fiscal year 1993. It also contains bibliographic information that, because of the long-term nature of the program, covers a 5-year period. The bibliographic information does not include abstracts or informal reports. Rather it contains those reports that are readily available in the form of journal articles, USGS publications, book chapters, or books.

Open-File Report↗

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the West Greenland-East Canada Province, 2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently assessed the potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources of the West Greenland-East Canada Province as part of the USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal program. The province lies in the offshore area between western Greenland and eastern Canada and includes Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound, and Nares Strait west of, and including, part of Kane Basin. A series of major tectonic events led to the formation of several distinct structural domains that are the geologic basis for defining five assessment units (AU ) in the province, all of which are within the Mesozoic-Cenozoic Composite Total Petroleum System (TPS). Potential petroleum source rocks within the TPS include strata of Ordovician, Lower and Upper Cretaceous, and Paleogene ages. The five AUs defined for this study—the Eurekan Structures AU, Northwest Greenland Rifted Margin AU, Northeast Canada Rifted Margin AU, Baffin Bay Basin AU, and the Greater Ungava Fault Zone AU— encompass the entire province and were assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. The estimated mean volumes of undiscovered resources for the West GreenlandEast Canada Province are 10.7 billion barrels of oil, 75 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 1.7 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. For the part of the province that is north of the Arctic Circle, the estimated mean volumes of these undiscovered resources are 7.3 billion barrels of oil, 52 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1.1 billion barrels of natural-gas liquids.

Professional Paper↗

Strategic plan for the U.S. Geological Survey status and trends of Biological Resources Program: 2004-2009

The mission of the USGS Status and Trends of Biological Resources Program is to measure, predict, assess, and report the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources to facilitate research, enable resource management and stewardship, and promote public understanding and appreciation of our living resources. Determining the status (abundance, distribution, productivity, and health) and trends (how these variables change over time) of our living natural resources is critical for their Trumpeter swan with numbered wing tags. This tech- protection or restoration. The Progg ran nique allows birds to he monitored remotely without the provides the USGS, other agencies of need for recapture to identify individuals. Photo by the Department of the Interior (DOI), Wayne Miller. other federal and state agencies, and the public with science-based monitoring data and information for local, regional, and national assessment of biological resources and the ecosystems that support them.

Circular↗

Floods of July 12, 1972, March 19, 1979, and June 15, 1991, in the Turkey River Basin, northeast Iowa

Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of July 12, 1972, March 19, 1979, and June 15, 1991, in the Turkey River Basin, northeast Iowa, are presented in this report. The profiles illustrate the 1979 and 1991 floods along the Turkey River in Fayette and Clayton Counties and along the Volga River in Clayton County; the 1991 flood along Roberts Creek in Clayton County and along Otter Creek in Fayette County; and the 1972 flood along the Turkey River in Winneshiek and Fayette Counties. Watersurface elevations for the flood of March 19,1979, were collected by the Iowa Natural Resources Council. The June 15, 1991, flood on the Turkey River at Garber (station number 05412500) is the largest known flood-peak discharge at the streamflow-gaging station for the period 1902-95. The peak discharge for June 15, 1991, of 49,900 cubic feet per second was 1.4 times larger than the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations in the Turkey River Basin using flood information collected during 1902-95. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Turkey River Basin during 1981, 1992, and 1996 also is included in the report. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1922, 1947, 1972, 1979, and 1991.

Iowa↗

Multipurpose Wetlands Phase II/III: final design and ongoing research investigations

The Eastern Municipal Water District (EMWD), the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), and the National Biological Survey (NBS), in consultation with other governmental agencies, the academic community, and environmental groups, are involved in a cooperative wetlands research and demonstration effort. This report reflects progress through the first 3 years of a 5-year program. The goal of the Multipurpose Wetlands Research and Demonstration Project is to evaluate and expand the use of reclaimed water and contaminated ground water through the incorporation of multipurpose constructed wetlands into EMWD's total water resources management program. The focus of the wetlands is the development of design, construction, and operation criteria that will provide a cost-effective and innovative alternative for managing water resources and provide other public benefits in arid areas. The program also recognizes the fact that naturally-occurring wetlands, both coastal and inland, have been disappearing at an alarming rate.

Report↗

Final Report fr critical thresholds and ecosystem services for coastal ecological and human climate adaptation

Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. As the effects of climate change on ecological communities grow, the possibility of crossing tipping points or thresholds of viability increases the potential for rapid and possibly irreversible changes in ecosystems. Therefore, understanding thresholds related to climate change is critical for facilitating conservation and management actions, which could help to prevent more costly and possibly catastrophic effects in the future. As part of a broad effort to synthesize and deliver coastal resilience information through the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), Climate Science Centers, states, and other partners along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, we synthesized existing quantitative threshold information for 45 priority coastal fish, wildlife, and plant species and habitats in response to sea level rise and storm projections. Additional information was synthesized on climate change adaptation actions that can increase the persistence and resilience of species and their habitats and how these actions relate to human community resilience. In addition to two peer-reviewed manuscripts, results from these synthesis efforts were disseminated online through easily accessible, topic-specific web pages in the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (climateactiontool.org) to make this information more easily accessible to stakeholders across the region. The compilation and dissemination of species and habitat threshold information will help to develop a more comprehensive understanding of how natural systems will respond to climate change and how land and resource management decisions could potentially help these species.

Report↗

Aftermath of Hurricane Fran in North Carolina; preliminary data on flooding and water quality

Floods resulting from Hurricane Fran, which passed through North Carolina on September 5-6, 1996, were some of the most severe and widespread in the State in recent memory. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources information, including flood data, for the Nation. As such, the USGS, in cooperation with the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and numerous other State and local agencies, is continuing to document the effects of Hurricane Fran on the water resources of North Carolina. The purpose of this report is to present preliminary, selected information on the flooding and associated water-quality conditions which followed Hurricane Fran in North Carolina

North Carolina↗

Accuracy of EAARL lidar ground elevations using a bare-earth algorithm in marsh and beach grasses on the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana

The NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Lidar (EAARL) is an airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) instrument designed to map coastal topography and bathymetry. The EAARL system has the capability to capture each laser-pulse return over a large signal range and can digitize the full waveform of the backscattered energy. Because of this ability to capture the full waveform, the EAARL system can map features such as coral reefs, beaches, coastal vegetation, and trees, where extreme variations in the laser backscatter are caused by different physical and optical characteristics. Post-processing of the EAARL data is accomplished using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) (Nayegandhi and others, 2009). In ALPS, the waveform of the lidar is analyzed and split into first and last returns. The 'first returns' are indicative of vegetation-canopy height, or bare ground in the absence of vegetation, whereas 'last returns' typically represent 'bare-earth' elevations under vegetation. To test the accuracy of the first-return and bare-earth EAARL data, topographic and vegetation height surveys were conducted in the Chandeleur Islands, concurrent with an EAARL lidar survey and an aerial oblique-photographic survey from September 20 to 27, 2006. The Chandeleur Islands are a north-south-oriented chain of low-lying islands located approximately 100 kilometers east of the city of New Orleans, Louisiana. The islands are narrow north-south strips of land with marsh on the landward (west sides) and sandy beaches on their gulfward (east sides). Prior to Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall at Buras, Louisiana, as a Category 3 storm on August 29, 2005, prominent, 3- to 4-meter-high sand dunes were present in the northern Chandeleurs. The storm removed them, leaving post-storm island elevations of generally less than 2 meters above 0.0 NAVD88. This report is part of a study of the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Chandeleur Islands using pre-storm and post-storm lidar surveys to detect morphological changes. The islands lost over 80 percent of their land area during Hurricane Katrina, and in the first 2 years following Katrina, many of the islands experienced continued shoreline retreat (Sallenger and others, 2007). In addition to land-area losses, the loss of dunes made the islands increasingly vulnerable to future storm impacts. The U.S. Geological Survey, along with partners in the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, continues to monitor changes in shoreline position, land area, and elevation in the Chandeleur Islands.

Open-File Report↗

WICCI Wildlife Working Group Report

Wisconsin is world-renowned for its diversity of ecological landscapes and wildlife populations. The northern forests, southern prairies, and interior and coastal wetlands of the state are home to more than 500 terrestrial animal species. These animals supply the Wisconsin public with aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits; our identity and economy are intertwined with these natural resources. Climate change is altering the behavior, distribution, development, reproduction, and survival of these animal populations. In turn, these changes will alter the aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits we receive from them. The focus of the Wildlife Working Group is to document past and current impacts, anticipate changes in wildlife distribution and abundance, and develop adaptation strategies to maintain the vitality and diversity of Wisconsin's wildlife populations.

Report↗