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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Insect pathogenic fungi for biocontrol of plague vector fleas: A review

Bubonic plague is a lethal bacterial disease of great historical importance. The plague organism, Yersinia pestis , is primarily transmitted by fleas (Siphonaptera). In natural settings, where its range expands, Y. pestis resides in association with wild rodents and their fleas (sylvatic plague). While chemical insecticides are used against plague vector fleas, biological approaches have not been as critically evaluated. Benign and cost-effective control methods are sorely needed, particularly where imperiled species are at risk. Here we explore the potential of two representative insect pathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana Vuillemin 1912 (Hypocreales: Cordycipitaceae) and Metarhizium anisopliae Metschnikoff 1879 (Hypocreales: Clavicipitaceae), each already used commercially worldwide in large-scale agricultural applications, as candidate biopesticides for application against fleas. We review the life cycles, flea virulence, commercial production, and field application of these fungi, and ecological and safety considerations. Pathogenic fungi infections among natural flea populations suggest that conditions within at least some rodent burrows are favorable, and laboratory studies demonstrate lethality of these fungi to at least some representative flea species. Continued study and advancements with these fungi, under appropriate safety measures, may allow for effective biocontrol of plague vector fleas to protect imperiled species, decrease plague outbreaks in key rodent species, and limit plague in humans.

Journal of Integrated Pest Management↗

USGS2015

Evaluating the relationship between biomass, percent groundcover and remote sensing indices across six winter cover crop fields in Maryland, United States

Winter cover crops are an essential part of managing nutrient and sediment losses from agricultural lands. Cover crops lessen sedimentation by reducing erosion, and the accumulation of nitrogen in aboveground biomass results in reduced nutrient runoff. Winter cover crops are planted in the fall and are usually terminated in early spring, making them susceptible to senescence, frost burn, and leaf yellowing due to wintertime conditions. This study sought to determine to what extent remote sensing indices are capable of accurately estimating the percent groundcover and biomass of winter cover crops, and to analyze under what critical ranges these relationships are strong and under which conditions they break down. Cover crop growth on six fields planted to barley, rye, ryegrass, triticale or wheat was measured over the 2012–2013 winter growing season. Data collection included spectral reflectance measurements, aboveground biomass, and percent groundcover. Ten vegetation indices were evaluated using surface reflectance data from a 16-band CROPSCAN sensor. Restricting analysis to sampling dates before the onset of prolonged freezing temperatures and leaf yellowing resulted in increased estimation accuracy. There was a strong relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and percent groundcover ( r 2 = 0.93) suggesting that date restrictions effectively eliminate yellowing vegetation from analysis. The triangular vegetation index (TVI) was most accurate in estimating high ranges of biomass ( r 2 = 0.86), while NDVI did not experience a clustering of values in the low and medium biomass ranges but saturated in the higher range (>1500 kg/ha). The results of this study show that accounting for index saturation, senescence, and frost burn on leaves can greatly increase the accuracy of estimates of percent groundcover and biomass for winter cover crops.

Maryland↗

USGS2024

Melded integrated population models

Integrated population models provide a framework for assimilating multiple datasets to understand population dynamics. Understanding drivers of demography is key to improving wildlife management, and integrated population models have informed conservation practices for many species of conservation concern. Motivated by multiple surveys of lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), we developed a flexible integrated population modeling framework for assimilating demographic data with multiple surveys of abundance. Measurements of abundance are derived from aerial and ground surveys that vary in their observational uncertainty, sampling design, temporal coverage, and survey effort. Our proposed integrated population model draws from the strengths of each survey and prevents their sampling biases from compromising inference. We facilitate posterior inference for our integrated population model using chained Markov melding, which induces the joint distribution for all data sources by linking inference across several submodels. Using Markov melding, we extend the modeling framework previously proposed for analyzing the individual data sources while still obtaining joint Bayesian inference. We fit the melded model with a multistage Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that decreases run time and improves mixing. We assimilate data from several state and federal wildlife agencies and over a dozen independent researchers to infer lesser prairie-chicken abundance and vital rates across its entire range over the last 18 years. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2026

Lake trout colonization of artificial reefs: Who’s interested, and how long does it take?

Restoring self-sustaining lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) populations has been a major management objective for decades across the species’ native range. Reproduction has been observed but recruitment has been limited in many areas of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Reef restoration and construction have been proposed to increase recruitment, leading to the construction of experimental spawning reefs in Thunder Bay, Lake Huron, during 2009–2010. Research shortly after reef construction demonstrated lake trout quickly colonized those reefs during spawning. We revisited this site after 10 years to evaluate lake trout encounter rate and residency on each reef over time and relative to an adjacent historical, anthropogenic reef complex using fine-scale acoustic telemetry. Encounter frequency increased at most experimental reefs since reef construction, but changes in residency were dependent on lake trout origin (hatchery or wild). Hatchery-produced fish increased their residency on the experimental reefs and spent more time on these reefs collectively than the historical reef; wild lake trout continued to primarily use the historical reef. We expected younger wild fish to have increased residency on the experimental reefs assuming these individuals could have originated from those reefs and were therefore more likely to return to them; however, residency on experimental reefs remained low (< 50%) for these fish. These results indicate that reef construction provided additional habitat used by spawning lake trout, but wild individuals continue to prefer older habitat including naive wild fish born after reef construction.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Shrinking channels, growing threats: Habitat degradation from channel narrowing and invasive vegetation in three dryland rivers

Water development and the proliferation of invasive riparian vegetation have led to widespread habitat loss and simplification of rivers in the western United States, contributing to the imperilment of native fishes. Here, we quantify channel narrowing and vegetation encroachment, which are conspicuous indicators of riverine habitat alteration, along ∼400 km of three dryland tributaries of the upper Colorado River. We conducted a comparative analysis of aerial photographs between the 1930s and 2010s/2020s time periods using visual interpretation and used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data along with Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) to quantify canopy cover of woody riparian species. All three rivers underwent substantial channel narrowing, coinciding with a general decrease in spring floods over time. However, the extent of narrowing varied among the rivers (78 %, 73 %, and 29 %) with greater narrowing corresponding to larger reductions in spring flows. In contrast, contemporary woody cover was similarly high among all three rivers (39 %, 41 %, and 36 %), and a woody vegetation analysis we conducted for one river indicated a substantial increase in vegetation along the active channel (4 %–74 %). These findings underscore a common pattern observed in rivers throughout the basin, where river channels often undergo narrowing and encroachment by invasive vegetation following dam construction and/or decreases in flows, ultimately leading to habitat simplification, with negative implications for native fishes and other riparian biota. Our findings also emphasize that, even in the presence of nonnative vegetation establishment, preserving or restoring large magnitude and long duration floods can help conserve diverse habitat in dryland rivers.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS1986

Marking fingerling striped bass and blue tilapia with coded wire tags and microtaggants

Fingerling striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ) of two year classes were tagged in four body locations with coded wire tags and on two locations with Microtaggants (laminated plastic particles containing layers of fluorescent and magnetic material). Retention of coded wire tags ranged from 33% for tags in the nose to 100% for tags in the cephalic portion of the adductor mandibularis (a small muscle located below the eye). Twenty percent of the fish tagged with Microtaggants in 1982 retained tags after 471 d; 98% of the ones tagged in 1983 retained Microtaggants after 270 d. Fingerling blue tilapias ( Tilapia aurea ) were tagged on the body with Microtaggant particles and in the nose and epaxial muscle with coded wire tags. After 328 d, retention was 11% for Microtaggants. Coded wire tag retention was 93% for tags in the nose, 94% for tags in the epaxial muscle anterior to the dorsal fin, and 88% for tags in the muscle posterior to the dorsal fin. For striped bass, implantation of coded wire tags in the adductor mandibularis is recommended for long-term tag retention. Implantation of coded wire tags in the nose is recommended for blue tilapia for long-term retention. Microtaggants are not recommended for long-term tagging of either species, but are appropriate for short-term studies of 1 year or less.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2006

Survival and growth of age-0 steelhead after surgical implantation of 23-mm passive integrated transponders

Little information is available on the effects of implanting 23-mm passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags in salmonids less than 90 mm fork length (FL). Using juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (range, 73–97 mm FL), we compared instantaneous growth rates and survival among three experimental groups: control, surgery with no tag, and surgery with tag. Survival rate was lower for tagged fish (86%) than for control and surgery−no tag fish (virtually 100% in each group). Approximately 90% of the mortalities occurred during days 1–3. Growth rate for the tagged group was lower for the first two 10-d measurement intervals; however, during the third 10-d interval, growth rates for tagged fish equaled or exceeded values for the other groups. These results suggest that tagged fish recovered by day 20. Growth rates for the control and surgery−no tag groups did not differ from one another during any measurement interval. Tag retention rate was 97% over the 30-d period of the study. It appears that the combination of fish length and tag size in this study resulted in short-term negative effects on growth rate and survival; however, 23-mm PIT tags may still be useful for studies of salmonids 80–90 mm FL when survival is not the parameter of interest.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2012

Age, growth, and reproductive biology of three catostomids from the Apalachicola River, Florida

Riverine catostomids can show a wide range of interspecific variation in life-history characteristics. Understanding these differences is an important consideration in evaluating the sensitivity of these fishes to disturbance and in formulating effective conservation strategies, particularly when dealing with an assemblage consisting of multiple species within a watershed. We collected Apalachicola redhorse Moxostoma n. sp. cf. poecilurum ( n = 125), spotted sucker Minytrema melanops ( n = 94), and quillback Carpiodes cyprinus ( n = 94) to determine age, growth, and reproductive biology of spawning catostomids in the Apalachicola River, Florida, during 2007. Quillback was the smallest in total length at age; longest-lived; most fecund; and produced the smallest eggs. Apalachicola redhorse was the largest in body size; had an intermediate life span; and produced the fewest yet largest eggs. Spotted sucker was more similar to Apalachicola redhorse in most characteristics. Growth during ages 1-3 in all three species seemed to be negatively related to the proportion of observations of extreme flow, both high (Q 90 ) and low (Q 10 ), per year and a positive response in growth rate to high flows (>Q 75 but < Q 90 ). However, Apalachicola redhorse and spotted sucker growth was more sensitive to flow conditions than that of quillback. Our results suggest the life histories and ecological response of Apalachicola River catostomids to flow regulation are important components for developing strategies that incorporate the needs of these fishery resources into an ecosystem-based management approach.

Florida↗

USGS2010

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2000

Predicting red wolf release success in the southeastern United States

Although the red wolf ( Canis rufus ) was once found throughout the southeastern United States, indiscriminate killing and habitat destruction reduced its range to a small section of coastal Texas and Louisiana. Wolves trapped from 1973 to 1980 were taken to establish a captive breeding program that was used to repatriate 2 mainland and 3 island red wolf populations. We collected data from 320 red wolf releases in these areas and classified each as a success or failure based on survival and reproductive criteria, and whether recaptures were necessary to resolve conflicts with humans. We evaluated the relations between release success and conditions at the release sites, characteristics of released wolves, and release procedures. Although <44% of the variation in release success was explained, model performance based on jackknife tests indicated a 72-80% correct prediction rate for the 4 operational models we developed. The models indicated that success was associated with human influences on the landscape and the level of wolf habituation to humans prior to release. We applied the models to 31 prospective areas for wolf repatriation and calculated an index of release success for each area. Decision-makers can use these models to objectively rank prospective release areas and compare strengths and weaknesses of each.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2024

How diverse is the toolbox? A review of management actions to conserve or restore coregonines

Over the past centuries, coregonines have been exposed to a range of stressors that have led to extinctions, extirpations, and speciation reversals. Given that some populations remain at risk and fishery managers have begun restoring coregonines where they have been extirpated, we reviewed the primary and gray literature to describe the diversity of coregonine restoration or conservation actions that have been previously used. Although stocking of hatchery-reared fish has been commonly used for supplementing existing coregonine fisheries, we considered stocking efforts only with specifically conservation or restoration goals. Likewise, conservation-driven efforts of translocation were not widespread, except in the United Kingdom for the creation of refuge populations to supplement the distribution of declining stocks. Habitat restoration efforts have occurred more broadly and have included improving spawning habitat, connectivity, or nutrient concentrations. Although harvest regulations are commonly used to regulate coregonine fisheries, we found fewer examples of the creation of protected areas or outright closures. Finally, interactions with invasive species can be a considerable stressor, yet we found relatively few examples of invasive species control undertaken for the direct benefit of coregonines. In conclusion, our review of the literature and prior Coregonid symposia revealed relatively limited direct emphasis on coregonine conservation or restoration relative to more traditional fishery approaches ( e.g. , supplementation of fisheries, stock assessment) or studying life history and genetics. Ideally, by providing this broad review of conservation and restoration strategies, future management efforts will benefit from learning about a greater diversity of potential actions that could be locally applied.

International Journal of Limnology↗

USGS2022

Streamwide evaluation of survival and reproduction of MYY and wild Brook Trout populations

Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis have been introduced across the western USA, where the species competes with and often replaces native salmonids. Nonnative Brook Trout are difficult to eradicate; thus, new removal strategies are needed. One novel methodology couples the partial suppression of wild Brook Trout with the replacement of M YY Brook Trout (males with two Y chromosomes). If M YY fish survive to reproduce with wild female Brook Trout, their progeny will be 100% male, which eventually shifts the sex ratio and theoretically extirpates the population. However, the effectiveness of this approach depends on survival and reproduction of M YY fish relative to the surviving wild conspecifics. From 2018 to 2020, we annually removed an estimated 45.7% of wild Brook Trout from three streams in New Mexico and stocked fingerling M YY Brook Trout (mean TL = 94 mm; range = 61–123 mm) targeting 50.0% of wild annual abundance estimates. Annual survival for M YY and wild Brook Trout was similar in Leandro Creek (M YY = 0.63 and wild = 0.63) and Rito de los Piños (M YY = 0.37 and wild = 0.46) but differed in Placer Creek (M YY = 0.28 and wild = 0.75). During spawning, we evaluated the reproductive potential of M YY Brook Trout by comparing the percentage of sexually mature male Brook Trout comprised of M YY fish to the percentage of hybrid (M YY × wild) F 1 progeny. By the second spawning season (2019), M YY fish comprised 59.8, 50.4, and 34.5% of milt-producing Brook Trout, which resulted in 55.1, 33.3, and 0% hybrid progeny in Leandro Creek, Rito de los Piños, and Placer Creek, respectively. We demonstrated that M YY fish exhibit similar vital rates compared with wild conspecifics in two of three streams; however, differences among streams highlights unforeseen variables that influence M YY survival and reproduction. The study offers promising results of the M YY approach for potentially eradicating unwanted Brook Trout populations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2024

Documentation of a probable spawning run of cisco Coregonus artedi in the Spanish River, Ontario, Canada

Coregonines were historically diverse and abundant in the Laurentian Great Lakes but declined throughout the 19th and 20th centuries due to multiple factors, including overfishing, habitat degradation, and interactions with invasive species. Great Lakes fishery managers are now working to restore coregonines across the basin. An important aspect of restoration efforts is the identification of key habitats, such as spawning habitats. Our understanding of the extent and diversity of coregonine spawning habitats in the Great Lakes is limited. Historical accounts suggest some cisco Coregonus artedi migrated to tributaries to spawn, but contemporary runs have not been reported. Moreover, cisco display considerable phenotypic variation, with different “forms” often occupying specific habitats or regions. We provide evidence for a previously undocumented spawning run of cisco in the Spanish River, a tributary to the North Channel of Lake Huron. We captured 31 mature and ripe fish (25 males, 6 females) approximately 52 km upstream of the river mouth on 15–16 November 2022. The fish ranged in age from 3-9 yr and total length from 287-394 mm. Of these 31 individuals, 27 were morphologically similar to C. artedi manitoulinus , a subspecies of cisco found in the North Channel; however, four individuals more closely resembled cisco captured in other areas of Lake Huron. These findings represent the best evidence of tributary spawning by cisco since the 1880s, and they have important implications for coregonine conservation and restoration efforts. Ongoing work aims to augment our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary importance of this population.

Ontario↗

USGS2017

Estimating inbreeding rates in natural populations: Addressing the problem of incomplete pedigrees

Understanding and estimating inbreeding is essential for managing threatened and endangered wildlife populations. However, determination of inbreeding rates in natural populations is confounded by incomplete parentage information. We present an approach for quantifying inbreeding rates for populations with incomplete parentage information. The approach exploits knowledge of pedigree configurations that lead to inbreeding coefficients of F = 0.25 and F = 0.125, allowing for quantification of Pr( I | k ): the probability of observing pedigree I given the fraction of known parents ( k ). We developed analytical expressions under simplifying assumptions that define properties and behavior of inbreeding rate estimators for varying values of k . We demonstrated that inbreeding is overestimated if Pr( I | k ) is not taken into consideration and that bias is primarily influenced by k . By contrast, our new estimator, incorporating Pr( I | k ), is unbiased over a wide range of values of k that may be observed in empirical studies. Stochastic computer simulations that allowed complex inter- and intragenerational inbreeding produced similar results. We illustrate the effects that accounting for Pr( I | k ) can have in empirical data by revisiting published analyses of Arabian oryx ( Oryx leucoryx ) and Red deer ( Cervus elaphus ). Our results demonstrate that incomplete pedigrees are not barriers for quantifying inbreeding in wild populations. Application of our approach will permit a better understanding of the role that inbreeding plays in the dynamics of populations of threatened and endangered species and may help refine our understanding of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in the wild.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2021

Dynamic landscapes in northwestern North America structured populations of wolverines (Gulo gulo)

Cyclic climatic and glacial fluctuations of the Late Quaternary produced a dynamic biogeographic history for high latitudes. To refine our understanding of this history in northwestern North America, we explored geographic structure in a wide-ranging carnivore, the wolverine ( Gulo gulo ). We examined genetic variation in populations across mainland Alaska, coastal Southeast Alaska, and mainland western Canada using nuclear microsatellite genotypes and sequence data from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and Cytochrome b ( Cytb ) gene. Data from maternally inherited mtDNA reflect stable populations in Northwest Alaska, suggesting the region harbored wolverine populations since at least the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 Kya), consistent with their persistence in the fossil record of Beringia. Populations in Southeast Alaska are characterized by minimal divergence, with no genetic signature of long-term refugial persistence (consistent with the lack of pre-Holocene fossil records there). The Kenai Peninsula population exhibits mixed signatures depending on marker type: mtDNA data indicate stability (i.e., historical persistence) and include a private haplotype, whereas biparentally inherited microsatellites exhibit relatively low variation and a lack of private alleles consistent with a more recent Holocene colonization of the peninsula. Our genetic work is largely consistent with the early 20 th century taxonomic hypothesis that wolverines on the Kenai Peninsula belong to a distinct subspecies. Our finding of significant genetic differentiation of wolverines inhabiting the Kenai Peninsula, coupled with the peninsula’s burgeoning human population and the wolverine’s known sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts, provides valuable foundational data that can be used to inform conservation and management prescriptions for wolverines inhabiting these landscapes.

Alaska, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, N↗

USGS1998

Outcome of aggressive interactions between American black ducks and mallards during the breeding season

American black duck (Anas rubripes) numbers have declined during the past several decades, while mallards (A. platyrhynchos) have expanded their range eastward. Competitive exclusion of black ducks from wetlands by mallards has been proposed as a principal cause of the decline. We studied a sympatric population of black ducks and mallards in Maine during the early breeding season to document behavior and interactions. We observed 832 aggressive interactions; most (72%) were interspecific. When a choice was available, both species interacted more often with conspecifics than with the other species (P < 0.028). On wetlands occupied simultaneously by both species, numbers of intraspecific interactions initiated by each species were similar (P = 0.470). The proportions of won (initiator displaces recipient of attack), lost (initiator displaced), and "no change" outcomes of these interactions were different (P < 0.001). When black ducks initiated interactions with mallards, black ducks did not lose any interactions and displaced mallards 87.2% of the time; no change occurred during 12.8% of the interactions. When mallards initiated interactions with black ducks, mallards displaced black ducks 63.3% of the time but were displaced by black ducks 15.0% of the time; no change occurred during 21.7% of the interactions. Displacement from wetlands was rare (38 of 229 interspecific interactions) and was equal between species.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (p A and p B , respectively, or p , collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., p A or p B , depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (p A and p B ) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (p A  = 0.30, p B  = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing p B , the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p ≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Tennessee↗

USGS2021

Using simulation to understand annual sea lamprey marking rates on lake trout

Sea lampreys attack fish, killing some and leaving marks on others. Great Lakes fishery managers rely on observed marking rates to assess the success of the sea lamprey control program and estimate sea lamprey-induced mortality of lake trout. Because marking rates are only observed on survivors of sea lamprey attacks, they may not provide a reliable index of actual attack or mortality rates. To investigate the effect of survivor bias, we developed a simulation model representing a single season (June–December) of sea lamprey attacks. Simulated attack rates varied with month and lake trout size; simulated pierce and lethality rates varied with month alone. Surveyed marking rates were represented by simulated survivors in October; true rates were calculated from all simulated lake trout (dead and alive) in December. Simulation results were subsetted to include only those within the range of marking rates actually observed in the Great Lakes. Type A (piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual lethality rates were relatively constant. Type B (non-piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual pierce rates were relatively constant. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the pierce and lethality rates, we recommend that sea lamprey abundance information be incorporated in existing lake trout statistical catch-at-age models via a functional response component relating sea lamprey feeding to lake trout abundance, if possible.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗