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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Four major Holocene earthquakes on the Reelfoot fault recorded by sackungen in the New Madrid seismic zone, USA

Three sequences of well-documented, major ~M7+ earthquakes (1811-1812 CE, ~1450 CE, and ~900 CE) in the New Madrid seismic zone, USA, contribute significantly to seismic hazard in the region. However, it is unknown whether this <550 yr recurrence interval has been constant throughout the Holocene given limited geomorphic evidence of prior earthquakes. We extend the record of paleoearthquakes along the Reelfoot fault via investigation of ridge-top gravitational failure features, interpreted as sackungen. The sackungen occur in bluffs along the eastern margin of the Mississippi River floodplain and are concentrated near (<15 km) the southwest-dipping Reelfoot reverse fault. A paleoseismic trench excavated across sackungen at the Paw Paw site exposed four packages of colluvial sediment that postdate 30-11 ka Peoria loess. We interpret the colluvial packages to have been deposited following episodic failure of the sackungen as a result of strong ground motions from the following sequence of earthquakes: event 4, 1640 ± 1730 BCE; event 3, 340 ± 670 CE; event 2, 1430 ± 380 CE; and event 1, 1810 ± 50 CE (2-sigma). Event timing corresponds to previously documented earthquakes and represents the longest archive of paleoearthquakes on the Reelfoot fault. If the trenched sackungen record all major Reelfoot fault earthquakes, our observations in combination with prior investigations indicate a period of quiescence from at least 11 – 4.7 ka, followed by four major seismic events culminating in the 1811-1812 CE sequence. This clustered earthquake recurrence helps place bounds on seismic-hazard and geodynamic models in the New Madrid seismic zone.

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2020

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long‐term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter‐term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Depth determination of the 2010 El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake sequence (M ≥ 4.0)

The 2010 M W 7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake ruptured a zone of ~120 km in length in northern Baja California. The geographic distribution of this earthquake sequence was well constrained by waveform relocation. The depth distribution, however, was poorly determined as it is near the edge of, or outside, the Southern California Seismic Network. Here we use two complementary methods to constrain the focal depths of moderate‐sized events ( M ≥ 4.0) in this sequence. We first determine the absolute earthquake depth by modeling the regional depth phases at high frequencies (~1 Hz). We mainly focus on Pn and its depth phases pPn and sPn , which arrive early at regional distance and are less contaminated by crustal multiples. To facilitate depth phase identification and to improve signal‐to‐noise ratio, we take advantage of the dense Southern California Seismic Network and use array analysis to align and stack Pn waveforms. For events without clear depth phases, we further determine their relative depths with respect to those with known depths using differential travel times of the Pn , direct P , and direct S phases recorded for event pairs. Focal depths of 93 out of 122 M ≥ 4.0 events are tightly constrained with absolute uncertainty of about 1 km. Aftershocks are clustered in the depth range of 3–10 km, suggesting a relatively shallow seismogenic zone, consistent with high surface heat flow in this region. Most aftershocks are located outside or near the lower terminus of coseismic high‐slip patches of the main shock, which may be governed by residual strains, local stress concentration, or postseismic slip.

Baja California↗
USGS2019

Assessing seasonal changes in microgravity at Yellowstone caldera

Microgravity time series at active volcanoes can provide an indication of mass change related to subsurface magmatic processes, but uncertainty is often introduced by hydrologic variations and other noise sources that cannot easily be isolated. We empirically assessed seasonality and noise by conducting four surveys over the course of May-October 2017 at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming. Yellowstone experiences frequent changes in the rates and styles of seismicity and surface deformation, but the mechanisms of these changes are poorly understood because the characteristics of the driving fluids are not clear. Past gravity data from the caldera have yielded ambiguous results, possibly due to hydrologic noise. Given the strong visually observable changes in surface water and snow conditions over the course of our surveys, we expected to see significant variations in gravity. The net change in gravity, however, was less than 20 µGal at most sites, and there was no strong correlation with river and lake levels or snow conditions. Seasonal changes in gravity are therefore small compared to those that would be expected from magmatic activity, although they may be on the same order as those associated with Yellowstone’s hydrothermal system. We did find that noise levels in gravity data were highly dependent on site characteristics, with bedrock sites away from trees yielding the lowest levels of noise, and thin concrete pads in forested areas the highest. These results can be used to plan future surveys at Yellowstone and to reinterpret past data, and they provide guidance in terms of best practices for repeat gravity work on volcanoes worldwide.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Surface imaging functions for elastic reverse time migration

Reverse time migration is often used to interpret acoustic or three‐component seismic recordings by creating an image of subsurface seismic reflectors. Here I describe elastic reverse time migration imaging functions that are cast as waveform misfit sensitivity kernels of contrasts in material parameters across hypothetical seismic discontinuities, that is, specular reflectors. The proposed “surface” imaging functions are theoretically applicable to either reflected or converted waves in order to estimate the location and reflectivity of these discontinuities. The surface imaging functions, as well as volumetric sensitivity kernels that target point diffractors, are tested on sets of synthetic surface array recordings that sample the 3‐D seismic wavefield on simple 2‐D structures generated using a 2.5‐D spectral element method. These tests illustrate that in contrast with the volumetric sensitivity kernels, the reflectivity is generally dominated by a high‐amplitude peak that coincides with input locations of discontinuities. Passive recordings of microseismicity, shot gathers, or a combination thereof can be potentially interpreted with the new surface imaging functions to yield useful reflectivity images.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Peak ground displacement saturates exactly when expected: Implications for earthquake early warning

The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements measured at stations triggered by the event. The algorithms used in ShakeAlert assume that the displacement measurements at each station are statistically independent and that there exists a linear and time-independent relation between log peak ground displacement and earthquake magnitude. Here we challenge this basic assumption using a comprehensive database of more than 130,000 vertical component waveforms from M4.5-M9 earthquakes occurring near Japan from 1997 through 2017 and recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net strong-motion networks. By analyzing the time-evolution of P-wave peak ground displacements for these earthquakes, we show that there is a break, or saturation, in the magnitude-displacement scaling that depends on the length of the measurement time window. We demonstrate that the magnitude at which this saturation occurs is well-explained by a simple and non-deterministic model of earthquake rupture growth. We then use the predictions of this saturation model to develop a Bayesian framework for estimating posterior uncertainties in real-time magnitude estimates which incorporates the expected time-dependence of the peak displacement measurements.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Vertical coseismic offsets from differential high-resolution stereogrammetric DSMs: The 2013 Baluchistan, Pakistan earthquake

The recent proliferation of high-resolution (< 3-m spatial resolution) digital topography datasets opens a spectrum of geodetic applications in differential topography, including the quantification of coseismic vertical displacement fields. Most investigations of coseismic vertical displacements to date rely, in part, on pre- or post-event lidar surveys that are intractable or non-existent in many locales. Stereogrammetric digital surface models (DSMs) derived from high-resolution satellite optical imagery provide a new avenue for the retrieval of spatially-dense vertical coseismic displacements on a global scale. In this study, we generated 2-m resolution pre- and post-seismic DSMs from satellite optical imagery spanning the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan strike-slip earthquake that occurred on the Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan. We applied the Iterative Closest Point algorithm to the DSMs to quantify the coseismic vertical displacement field at a spatial resolution of 10-30 m and to generate 3D coseismic strain tensors. We found that across-fault vertical offsets alternated between uplift and subsidence and varied between ~1-3 m in a non-systematic manner along the Hoshab fault. We show that the pre-existing topography and near-fault geomorphology are variably consistent and inconsistent with the displacement kinematics of the 2013 earthquake, and we argue that these relationships highlight varied slip sense history along the Hoshab fault. Notably, topography along the southern extents of the Hoshab fault requires different surface displacement kinematics than occurred in the 2013 earthquake, suggesting that the Hoshab fault accommodates varying senses of slip (bimodal slip) through time.

Baluchistan Province↗
USGS2019

Sea level rise in the Samoan Islands escalated by viscoelastic relaxation after the 2009 Samoa‐Tonga earthquake

The Samoan islands are an archipelago hosting a quarter million people mostly residing in three major islands, Savai'i and Upolu (Samoa), and Tutuila (American Samoa). The islands have experienced sea level rise by 2–3 mm/year during the last half century. The rate, however, has dramatically increased following the M w 8.1 Samoa‐Tonga earthquake doublet (megathrust + normal faulting) in September 2009. Since the earthquake, we found large‐scale gravity increase (0.5 μ Gal/year) around the islands and ongoing subsidence (8–16 mm/year) of the islands from our analysis of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment gravity and GPS displacement data. The postseismic horizontal displacement is faster in Samoa, while the postseismic subsidence rate is considerably larger in American Samoa. The analysis of local tide gauge records and satellite altimeter data also identified that the relative sea level rise becomes faster by 7–9 mm/year in American Samoa than Samoa. A simple viscoelastic model with a Maxwell viscosity of 2–3 × 10 18 Pa s for the asthenosphere explained postseismic deformation at nearby GPS sites as well as Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment gravity change. It is found that the constructive interference of viscoelastic relaxation from both megathrust and normal faulting has intensified the postseismic subsidence at American Samoa, causing ~5 times faster sea level rise than the global average. Our model indicates that this trend is likely to continue for decades and result in sea level rise of 30–40 cm, which is independent of and in addition to anticipated climate‐related sea level rise. It will worsen coastal flooding on the islands leading to regular nuisance flooding.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2019

Groundwater inflow toward a preheated volcanic conduit: Application to the 2018 eruption at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

The many successes in volcano forecasting over the past several decades owe mainly to pattern recognition, both in monitoring data and the geologic record. During the early stages of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption, the conceptual model of Stearns (1925), based on the explosive 1924 Kīlauea eruption, was highly influential. This model postulates that explosions are triggered by liquid-water inflow into a recently vacated magma conduit. Modern quantitative modeling approaches, supplemented by hydrogeologic data unavailable in 1925, yield a more nuanced view. Results demonstrate that liquid-water inflow would likely be delayed by months to years, owing to the inability of liquid water to transit a zone of very hot rock surrounding the conduit. The exercise demonstrates the use of physically based modeling to supplement traditional volcano-forecasting approaches during an ongoing event.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Delayed dynamic triggering of disposal-induced earthquakes observed by a dense array in Northern Oklahoma

Recent increases in earthquake occurrence rates in Oklahoma have been linked to the injection of large volumes of saltwater, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction. Here we present a detailed study of remote earthquake triggering in an area of active injection‐induced seismicity in northern Oklahoma using data from the LArge‐n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) temporary array and nearby permanent broadband seismic stations. We estimate changes in earthquake rates and calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes on potential receiver faults due to passing teleseismic surface waves. A statistically significant increase in seismicity is observed ∼8 hr after the 16 April 2016 M w 7.8 Ecuador earthquake. The Coulomb stress changes associated with the Ecuador earthquake are on the order of ∼1 kPa. Physical mechanisms consistent with the observed dynamic stress threshold include failure driven by activation of aseismic slip or hydrological response of the fault system.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2019

Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions

We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method analyzes ten different continental margins, that were mapped by high-resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent GIS procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin [Chaytor et al., 2009]. Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the ten margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin, the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all ten margins and thus the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Locating shallow seismic sources with waves scattered by surface topography: Validation of the method at the Nevada Test Site

Accurate and robust source location is fundamental in seismology. Previously, we proposed a new full waveform location method using waves scattered by topography near the source, and we demonstrated its potential in obtaining accurate source location using synthetic data. In the work presented here, we validate this method with observed seismic data from the 1993 Non-Proliferation Experiment, a chemical explosion with a precisely known location in a region with moderate topography at the Nevada Test Site. We select the first arrivals (Pn/Pg) and their immediate codas to determine the source location and compare our solution with the known location. We use a collocated-grid finite-difference method to calculate the strain Green’s tensor in a grid-search volume containing the source, and obtain three-component synthetic waveforms at 12 broadband seismic stations at regional distances using source-receiver reciprocity. We assess the solution using a least-squares misfit between the observed and synthetic waveforms. When scattered coda waves are incorporated, the best solution is within a few hundreds of meters of the exact source location, and the estimated uncertainty of the solution is reduced compared to the waveform based solution using only the P waves. The solution is robust to the choice of the frequency content and to the addition of random velocity heterogeneity. We conclude that the full waveform source location method is effective for real seismic data, though more validation tests like this one are needed to further understand its efficacy for source-station geometry, roughness of topography, signal quality and other factors.

Nevada↗
USGS2019

Laboratory experiments of volcanic ash resuspension by wind

Fresh volcanic eruption deposits tend to be loose, bare, and readily resuspended by wind. Major resuspension events in Patagonia, Iceland, and Alaska have lofted ash clouds with potential to impact aircraft, infrastructure, and downwind communities. However, poor constraints on this resuspension process limit our ability to model this phenomenon. Here, we present laboratory experiments measuring threshold shear velocities and emission rates of resuspended ash under different environmental conditions, including relative humidity of 25–75% and simulated rainfall with subsequent drying. Eruption deposits were replicated using ash collected from two major eruptions: the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens and the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, in Alaska's Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. Samples were conditioned in a laboratory chamber and prepared with bulk deposit densities of 1,300–1,500 kg/m 3 . A control sample of dune sand was included for comparison. The deposits were subjected to different wind speeds using a modified PI‐SWERL® instrument. Under a constant relative humidity of 50% and shear velocities 0.4–0.8 m/s, PM 10 emission by resuspension ranged from 10 to >100 mg·m −2 ·s −1 . Addition of liquid water equivalent to 5 mm of rainfall had little lasting effect on Mount St. Helens wind erosion potential, while the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes deposits exhibited lower emissions for at least 12 days. The results indicate that particle resuspension due to wind erosion from ash deposits potentially exceeds that of most desert surfaces and approaches some of the highest emissions ever measured.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres↗
USGS2018

Degradation of 100‐m‐scale rocky ejecta craters at the InSight Landing Site on Mars and implications for surface processes and erosion rates in the hesperian and amazonian

Rocky ejecta craters (RECs) at the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) landing site on Elysium Planitia, Mars, provide constraints on crater modification and rates for the Hesperian and Amazonian. The RECs are between 10 m and 1.2 km in diameter and exhibit five classes of preservation. Class 1 represents pristine craters with sharp rims and abundant ejected rocks. From Classes 2 to 5, rims become more subdued, craters are infilled, and the ejecta become discontinuously distributed. High‐Resolution Imaging Science Experiment digital elevation models indicate a maximum depth to diameter ratio of ~0.15, which is lower than pristine models for craters of similar size. The low ratio is related to the presence of a loosely consolidated regolith and early‐stage eolian infill. Rim heights have an average height to diameter ratio of ~0.03 for the most pristine class. The size‐frequency distribution of RECs, plotted using cumulative and differential methods, indicates that crater classes within the diameter range of 200 m to 1.2 km are separated by ~100 to 200 Myr. Smaller craters degrade faster, with classes separated by <100 Myr. Rim erosion can be entirely modeled by nonlinear diffusional processes using the calculated timescales and a constant diffusivity of 8 × 10 −7 m 2 /year for craters 200 to 500 m in diameter. Diffusion models only partly capture depth‐related degradation, which requires eolian infill. Depth degradation and rim erosion rates are 10 −2 to 10 −3 m/Myr, respectively. The rates are consistent with relatively slow modification that is typical of the last two epochs of Martian history.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2018

Floor-fractured craters on Ceres and implications for interior processes

Several of the impact craters on Ceres have sets of fractures on their floors. These fractures appear similar to those found within a class of lunar craters referred to as floor-fractured craters (FFCs). We have cataloged the Ceres FFCs according to the classification scheme designed for the Moon. An analysis of the depth to diameter ratio for Ceres craters shows that, like lunar FFCs, the Ceres FFCs are anomalously shallow. Large (>50 km) Ceres FFCs are most consistent with Class 1 lunar FFCs, while smaller craters on Ceres are more consistent with Class 4 lunar FFCs. This suggests that Ceres FFCs may similarly be undergoing fracturing due to the intrusion of a low-density material below the craters. While on the Moon (and Mars) the intrusive material is hypothesized to be silicate magma, cryomagmatic intrusions are more likely responsible for the formation of the Ceres FFCs. However, new models suggest that at least some of the FFC fractures may have formed due to the solid-state flow of a low-viscosity and low-density material into the crater wall.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2019

Overview of spirit microscopic imager results

This paper provides an overview of Mars Exploration Rover Spirit Microscopic Imager (MI) operations and the calibration, processing, and analysis of MI data. The focus of this overview is on the last five Earth years (2005–2010) of Spirit 's mission in Gusev crater, supplementing the previous overview of the first 450 sols of the Spirit MI investigation. Updates to radiometric calibration using in‐flight data and improvements in high‐level processing are summarized. Released data products are described, and a table of MI observations, including target/feature names and associated data sets, is appended. The MI observed natural and disturbed exposures of rocks and soils as well as magnets and other rover hardware. These hand‐lens‐scale observations have provided key constraints on interpretations of the formation and geologic history of features, rocks, and soils examined by Spirit . MI images complement observations by other Spirit instruments, and together show that impact and volcanic processes have dominated the origin and evolution of the rocks in Gusev crater, with aqueous activity indicated by the presence of silica‐rich rocks and sulfate‐rich soils. The textures of some of the silica‐rich rocks are similar to terrestrial hot spring deposits, and observations of subsurface cemented layers indicate recent aqueous mobilization of sulfates in places. Wind action has recently modified soils and abraded many of the rocks imaged by the MI, as observed at other Mars landing sites.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2018

Submarine deposition of a subaerial landslide in Taan Fiord, Alaska

A large subaerial landslide entered Taan Fiord, Alaska, on 17 October 2015 producing a tsunami with runup to 193 m. We use LiDAR data to show the slide volume to be 76 + 3/−4 million cubic meters and that 51,000,000 m 3 entered Taan Fiord. In 2016, we mapped the fjord with multibeam bathymetry and high‐resolution seismic data. Landslide and postlandslide deposits extend 6 km downfjord, are up to 70 ± 11 m thick, and have a total volume of ~147,000,000 m 3 . Seismic data image a blocky landslide unit and two units deposited immediately after the landslide. The blocky landslide unit is ~65,000,000 m 3 . We infer it consists dominantly of subaerially derived material and secondarily of fjord floor sediment. The overlying units are likely megaturbidites presumably deposited within minutes to days after the landslide. We infer that these deposits dominantly consist of fjord floor material mobilized and suspended as the slide entered and traveled downfjord. The lower postlandslide unit is up to 35 ± 6 m thick, and the upper unit is up to 12 ± 3 m thick. These deposits are distinctive and will leave a lasting record of the event. This subaerial‐to‐submarine landslide deposit is distinct from other submarine landslide deposits studied in Alaskan fjords because it has a much greater thickness, larger and more angular blocks, distinctive postlandslide megaturbidites, and a higher‐amplitude acoustic signature of the blocky deposit. The tight constraints on the landslide source and deposit volumes, topography, bathymetry, and tsunami runup heights and flow directions should make this a benchmark site for landslide‐tsunami models.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Geomorphic evolution of a gravel‐bed river under sediment‐starved vs. sediment‐rich conditions: River response to the world's largest dam removal

Understanding river response to sediment pulses is a fundamental problem in geomorphic process studies, with myriad implications for river management. However, because large sediment pulses are rare and usually unanticipated, they are seldom studied at field scale. We examine fluvial response to a massive (~20 Mt) sediment pulse released by the largest dam removal globally, on the Elwha River, Washington, United States, in an 11‐year before‐after/control‐impact study of channel morphology and grain size. We test the hypothesis that for a given flow magnitude, greater geomorphic change occurs under sediment‐rich conditions than under sediment‐starved conditions. Channel response to flow forcing was significantly different during the sediment‐pulse peak, 1–2 years after dam removal began, than earlier or later. During peak sediment supply our hypothesis was supported; major geomorphic change occurred under low flows and unit stream power ≤60 W/m 2 . However, by 4–6 years after dam removal began, rates of geomorphic change and sensitivity to stream power had decreased substantially such that our hypothesis was no longer unequivocally supported. These findings are consistent with a two‐phase conceptual model of dam‐removal response, involving a transport‐limited state followed by a more supply‐limited state. From comparisons with other dam removals and natural sediment pulses, we infer that the longevity of sediment‐pulse signals in gravel‐bed rivers depends upon gradient, river discharge, valley morphology, and sediment grain size. Stream power associated with substantial geomorphic change varies with sediment supply, such that assigning a general threshold stream power to gravel‐bed rivers may be untenable.

Washington↗