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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of the White River Formation, Lance Formation, and Fox Hills Sandstone, northern greater Denver Basin, southeastern Laramie County, Wyoming

In cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, the U.S. Geological Survey studied the geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Cenozoic and Upper Cretaceous strata at a location in southeastern Laramie County within the Wyoming part of the Cheyenne Basin, the northern subbasin of the greater Denver Basin. The study aimed to improve understanding of the aquifers/aquifer systems in these strata, motivated in part by declining groundwater levels and interest in exploring future groundwater supplies. Based on detailed geologic characterization using information obtained by drilling and coring a 960-foot-(ft) deep exploratory borehole, and comparisons with previously published descriptions, identified Cenozoic lithostratigraphic units included 40 ft of Quaternary older alluvial fan deposits consisting of an unconsolidated mixture of sand and gravel with lesser quantities of silt and clay in varying proportions and the underlying 407.3-ft-thick White River Formation of late Eocene-Oligocene age consisting largely of mudrocks with sparse thin beds of sandstone, muddy gravel, and conglomeratic mudrocks. Identified Upper Cretaceous lithostratigraphic units included the 351.6-ft-thick Lance Formation, consisting of terrestrial sedimentary rocks including mudrocks (muddy shale and silty and sandy shale, siltstone, claystone, and mudstone) interbedded with much smaller quantities of very fine- to medium-grained muddy and silty sandstone and coal; the 79.6-ft-thick Fox Hills Sandstone, consisting of a transitional marine sequence of muddy or silty sandstone present in five individual beds; and 86.7 ft of the upper transition member of the Pierre Shale, consisting largely of marine sedimentary rocks such as muddy shale. Beds of the upper and lower Fox Hills Sandstone were separated by tongues of the Lance Formation and upper transition member of the Pierre Shale, respectively. The White River hydrogeologic unit, consisting of the entire White River Formation or Group at the study site, did not contain any substantial secondary permeability features in the mudrocks that composed almost all the unit. A monitoring well (BR–1) was completed in the White River aquifer with the well screen open to the only coarse-grained unit (muddy sandstone) that had sufficient thickness and permeability to be considered as an aquifer. Sampling of the well for a broad suite of constituents indicated groundwater generally was of excellent quality except dissolved arsenic was detected at a concentration greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Maximum Contaminant Level, and dissolved sodium was measured at a concentration greater than several EPA Drinking Water Advisory Levels (DWAs) for the constituent. Well development, well purging for groundwater sampling, and calculated aquifer properties indicated the sandstone aquifer screened by monitoring well BR–1 was not very productive. Analysis of the well water-level responses in BR–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response with wellbore-storage effects. Hydraulic properties estimated based on these responses yielded values of hydraulic conductivity ( K , 0.057 foot per day [ft/d]), specific storage ( Ss , 1.6×10 −6 per foot [ft −1 ]) and porosity ( n , 0.43). Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated an upward trend (+1.13 foot per year [ft/yr]) during the period analyzed, September 5, 2014, to September 30, 2017. Lithologic characteristics of the Lance hydrogeologic unit, consisting of the entire Lance Formation at the study site, indicated a potential aquifer in a “sandy” interval in the upper part of the unit. Most of the Lance hydrogeologic unit below the “sandy” interval consisted of various low-permeability lithologies unlikely to yield substantial quantities of water. This lower part of the hydrogeologic unit likely functions as a confining unit separating the underlying Lance-Fox Hills aquifer. A geologic cross section constructed for this study indicated fine-grained sediments composed most of the Lance Formation/hydrogeologic unit not only at the study location, but also throughout southern Laramie County along the line of section and throughout the Wyoming and Colorado parts of the Cheyenne Basin. A monitoring well (LN–1) completed in a sandstone bed in the “sandy” interval of the Lance hydrogeologic unit produced a mean of about 23 gallons per minute (gal/min) during well development, indicating sandstone beds can form moderately productive confined subaquifers in this part of the hydrogeologic unit. Analysis of the well water-level responses in well LN–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response. Hydraulic properties estimated based on these responses yielded values for a lower bounding K of 0.60 ft/d, Ss of 1.6×10 −6 ft −1 , and n of 0.38. Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated a downward trend (−0.86 ft/yr) during the period analyzed (November 8, 2014, to September 30, 2017). Analyses for a broad suite of constituents in samples from well LN–1 indicated groundwater quality generally was excellent, although dissolved sodium was measured at a concentration greater than two EPA DWA levels for the constituent. Because of the absence of any overlying or intertonguing sandstone beds belonging to the lower/basal part of the Lance Formation, the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer at the study site consisted only of the five sandstone beds of the Fox Hills Sandstone. The cross section constructed for this study illustrated how the Fox Hills Sandstone, and thus, most of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer, consists of a series of sandstone bodies that overlap (shingle) upward to the east across southern Laramie County. These bodies collectively form a fairly continuous body of sandstone, thus potentially forming an areally extensive aquifer across southern Laramie County, and by extension, throughout most of the formation’s extent in the Wyoming part of the Cheyenne Basin, as is the case in the Colorado part of the basin. A monitoring well (FH–1) completed in part of the thickest sandstone bed of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer was moderately to highly productive and easily produced 25 to 30 gal/min after development. Substantially larger water production rates likely could be obtained by penetrating the full thickness of this bed and by completing a well open to the other overlying and underlying sandstone beds of the aquifer. Analysis of the water-level responses in well FH–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response. Hydraulic properties computed based on these responses yielded values for a lower bounding estimate for K of 0.26 ft/d, for Ss of 1.0×10 −6 ft −1 , and for n of 0.41. Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated a downward trend (−1.74 ft/yr) during the period analyzed, December 19, 2014, to September 30, 2017. Sampling of monitoring well FH–1 and two production wells completed in the Fox Hills Sandstone in other parts of Laramie County indicated groundwater quality generally is excellent, although pH exceeded a recommended EPA aesthetic drinking-water standard (Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level) in two of three sampled wells, total dissolved solids concentrations exceeded the Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level in one of the two sampled production wells, and dissolved sodium was measured in all three sampled wells at a concentration greater than two EPA DWA levels for the constituent. The Wyoming Class II agricultural (irrigation) sodium adsorption ratio standard of 8 was exceeded in all three sampled wells, indicating these waters are not suitable for irrigation use. Computed vertical hydraulic gradients indicated a strong potential for downward flow throughout the groundwater system at the study site, including from the low-yielding aquifer in the upper White River Formation/hydrogeologic unit (monitoring well BR–1) to the sandstone subaquifer in the Lance Formation/hydrogeologic unit (monitoring well LN–1), and from the Lance subaquifer (monitoring well LN–1) to the sandstone bed/aquifer that composes much of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer thickness at the study site (monitoring well FH–1). However, large hydraulic-head differences between wells indicated high resistance to vertical flow attributable to the low vertical hydraulic conductivity of intervening strata, which consisted almost entirely of low-permeability mudrocks. The confined nature of the sandstone aquifers monitored by the various wells coupled with dissimilarities between groundwater-level fluctuations and trends in groundwater levels indicated downward flow through the intervening strata (primarily mudrocks in the various lithostratigraphic/hydrogeologic units) between the examined sets of wells likely was small.

Wyoming↗

Delineation of marsh types of the Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River in 2010

Coastal zone managers and researchers often require detailed information regarding emergent marsh vegetation types for modeling habitat capacities and needs of marsh-reliant wildlife (such as waterfowl and alligator). Detailed information on the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation zones throughout the Texas coast has been historically unavailable. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation and collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via the Gulf Coast Joint Venture, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, and Ducks Unlimited, Inc., has produced a classification of marsh vegetation types along the middle and upper Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River. This study incorporates approximately 1,000 ground reference locations collected via helicopter surveys in coastal marsh areas and about 2,000 supplemental locations from fresh marsh, water, and “other” (that is, nonmarsh) areas. About two-thirds of these data were used for training, and about one-third were used for assessing accuracy. Decision-tree analyses using Rulequest See5 were used to classify emergent marsh vegetation types by using these data, multitemporal satellite-based multispectral imagery from 2009 to 2011, a bare-earth digital elevation model (DEM) based on airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), alternative contemporary land cover classifications, and other spatially explicit variables believed to be important for delineating the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation communities. Image objects were generated from segmentation of high-resolution airborne imagery acquired in 2010 and were used to refine the classification. The classification is dated 2010 because the year is both the midpoint of the multitemporal satellite-based imagery (2009–11) classified and the date of the high-resolution airborne imagery that was used to develop image objects. Overall accuracy corrected for bias (accuracy estimate incorporates true marginal proportions) was 91 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 89.2–92.8), with a kappa statistic of 0.79 (95 percent CI: 0.77–0.81). The classification performed best for saline marsh (user’s accuracy 81.5 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 62.9 percent) but showed a lesser ability to discriminate intermediate marsh (user’s accuracy 47.7 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 49.5 percent). Because of confusion in intermediate and brackish marsh classes, an alternative classification containing only three marsh types was created in which intermediate and brackish marshes were combined into a single class. Image objects were reattributed by using this alternative three-marsh-type classification. Overall accuracy, corrected for bias, of this more general classification was 92.4 percent (95 percent CI: 90.7–94.2), and the kappa statistic was 0.83 (95 percent CI: 0.81–0.85). Mean user’s accuracy for marshes within the four-marsh-type and three-marsh-type classifications was 65.4 percent and 75.6 percent, respectively, whereas mean producer’s accuracy was 56.7 percent and 65.1 percent, respectively. This study provides a more objective and repeatable method for classifying marsh types of the middle and upper Texas coast at an extent and greater level of detail than previously available for the study area. The seamless classification produced through this work is now available to help State agencies (such as the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department) and landscape-scale conservation partnerships (such as the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the Gulf Coast Joint Venture) to develop and (or) refine conservation plans targeting priority natural resources. Moreover, these data may improve projections of landscape change and serve as a baseline for monitoring future changes resulting from chronic and episodic stressors.

Texas↗

Widespread landslide activity in an extreme wet season and implications for regional sediment management, eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Watershed sediment production is expected to increase in a warmer future with more extreme rain, with cascading effects throughout drainage and sediment-transport networks. This study investigated landscape-scale sediment movement in the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California, USA, during the extreme 2016–2017 wet season that brought major rainfall, landslides, and flooding. Mapping 8,928 landslides across a 1,050-km 2 study area revealed new sediment yield of 510–956 t/km 2 , equivalent to denudation of 193–361 mm/ky. These results correspond closely to long-term denudation rates in the northern and central California Coast Ranges, indicating that mass wasting in very wet years dominates long-term sediment mobilization. However, due to long residence times in drainage networks, the 2017 landslides contributed at most ∼1%–2% of the estimated locally derived fluvial sediment transport to San Francisco Bay. Although the amount of sediment mobilized did not threaten municipal water supplies, small rangeland impoundments in this mixed-use landscape lost storage capacity to new sedimentation. Considering regional sediment supply and demand, even the exceptionally large sediment delivery in an extreme wet year cannot meet the need for sediment to accrete tidal wetlands in the bay. To keep pace with rising sea levels, this abnormally high terrestrial sediment input would need to occur in 50 of the next 75 years, an unlikely occurrence due to the prevalence of recent drought years. Shoreline protection and restoration in the bay would need additional sources of sediment, such as through management of dredged sediment through beneficial-reuse programs.

California↗

Microseismicity at the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara offshore Istanbul, NW Turkey

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) below the Sea of Marmara forms a “seismic gap” where a major earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. This segment of the fault lies between the 1912 Ganos and 1999 İzmit ruptures and is the only NAFZ segment that has not ruptured since 1766. To monitor the microseismic activity at the main fault branch offshore of Istanbul below the Çınarcık Basin, a permanent seismic array (PIRES) was installed on the two outermost Prince Islands, Yassiada and Sivriada, at a few kilometers distance to the fault. In addition, a temporary network of ocean bottom seismometers was deployed throughout the Çınarcık Basin. Slowness vectors are determined combining waveform cross correlation and P wave polarization. We jointly invert azimuth and traveltime observations for hypocenter determination and apply a bootstrap resampling technique to quantify the location precision. We observe seismicity rates of 20 events per month for M < 2.5 along the basin. The spatial distribution of hypocenters suggests that the two major fault branches bounding the depocenter below the Çınarcık Basin merge to one single master fault below ∼17 km depth. On the basis of a cross-correlation technique we group closely spaced earthquakes and determine composite focal mechanisms implementing recordings of surrounding permanent land stations. Fault plane solutions have a predominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, indicating that normal faulting along this part of the NAFZ plays a minor role. Toward the west we observe increasing components of thrust faulting. This supports the model of NW trending, dextral strike-slip motion along the northern and main branch of the NAFZ below the eastern Sea of Marmara.

Istanbul↗

Multi-decadal simulation of marsh topography evolution under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads

Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but neglects biophysical interactions (P-Event), and (c) a biophysical model that resolves event-scale physical processes and biophysical processes at annual and longer time scales (BP-Event). A calibrated BP-Event model shows that large (>20-year return period) episodic storm events are major drivers of marsh accretion, depositing up to 30 cm of sediment in one event. Greater deposition is predicted near fluvial sources and tidal channels and less on marshes further from fluvial sources and tidal channels. In contrast, the BP-Annual model poorly resolves spatial structure in marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting event-scale processes. Furthermore, the P-Event model significantly overestimates marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting marsh surface compaction driven by annual scale biophysical processes. Differences between BP-Event and BP-Annual models translate up to 20 cm per century in marsh surface elevation.

California↗

Heavy mineral sands resources in China

About 200 known coastal deposits of heavy mineral sands (HMS) occur in China, in which considerable mineral resources of titanium, zircon, rare earth elements, and thorium exist in the forms of ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and monazite. More than 20 of these HMS deposits are reported as having been or are actively being mined in China during the past three decades, of which 12 have been reported to have industrial resources. Commercially important deposits occur almost entirely in Cenozoic beach and sand dune deposits, principally along China’s eastern coast (e.g., Shandong Province) and southern coast (e.g., Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian provinces), and particularly on Hainan island. There are also important deposits of HMS along coastal areas of Taiwan. China has the largest share of the world’s economic ilmenite resources in HMS deposits (31%). A variety of igneous and associated metamorphic rocks along the coastal areas of China provided an abundant source of heavy minerals for the formation of the HMS occurrences. Studies of titanium-rich HMS deposits have shown that ilmenite is mostly sourced from igneous rocks. For example, 40% of the bedrock of Hainan island consists of Triassic and Cretaceous granites emplaced into rocks of the Cathyasia Block, and all of the HMS districts on the island lie no more than 15 km downstream from a Middle Triassic suite of syenite to granite intrusions. The southern coastal regions of Guangdong and Guangxi provinces are dominated by Jurassic granodiorite, biotite granite, two-mica granite, and A-type granite, with minor gabbro and syenite. Identified accessory minerals in the Jurassic alkaline granitoids include zircon, apatite, allanite, titanite, magnetite, ilmenite, monazite, and niobite. Thus, multiple plutons are in proximity to the Cenozoic coastal plain and are available as bedrock sources for the detrital titanium minerals, zircon, and monazite. More than 100 HMS deposits and prospects have been identified in Shandong Province, consisting of more than 20 varieties of heavy minerals in quartz sand, which include zircon, ilmenite, rutile, monazite, magnetite, xenotime, and gold (in general order of abundance) derived from Precambrian metamorphic basement and Mesozoic intrusions. Of these minerals, zircon, magnetite, gold, and quartz sand have economic significance. The quartz sands are used by the glass and construction industries. The placers mainly occur in and adjacent to the littoral zones of the northern and southern coasts of the Jiaodong Peninsula in Shandong province. Seven beach placer, HMS prospective areas have been delineated in coastal areas of the peninsula. Due to nearly exhausted placer reserves in the Chinese coastal zones, as well as increased environmental restrictions, future prospecting for heavy minerals will likely focus on ancient beach systems in China’s inland sedimentary basins. Also, offshore deposits of HMS in shallow coastal waters are other potential sources of heavy minerals, such as the Baoding Sea zircon-titanium, minerals-rich placer under development near Wanning on Hainan. Similarly, there is potential for offshore HMS deposits in shallow waters of the entire coastal area of southern Taiwan that remains to be fully evaluated. Reconnaissance sampling along Taiwan island’s coasts has revealed the potential for extensive, high-grade HMS accumulations nearshore.

Book chapter↗

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

Spectral matching techniques (SMTs) and automated cropland classification algorithms (ACCAs) for mapping croplands of Australia using MODIS 250-m time-series (2000–2015) data

Mapping croplands, including fallow areas, are an important measure to determine the quantity of food that is produced, where they are produced, and when they are produced (e.g. seasonality). Furthermore, croplands are known as water guzzlers by consuming anywhere between 70% and 90% of all human water use globally. Given these facts and the increase in global population to nearly 10 billion by the year 2050, the need for routine, rapid, and automated cropland mapping year-after-year and/or season-after-season is of great importance. The overarching goal of this study was to generate standard and routine cropland products, year-after-year, over very large areas through the use of two novel methods: (a) quantitative spectral matching techniques (QSMTs) applied at continental level and (b) rule-based Automated Cropland Classification Algorithm (ACCA) with the ability to hind-cast, now-cast, and future-cast. Australia was chosen for the study given its extensive croplands, rich history of agriculture, and yet nonexistent routine yearly generated cropland products using multi-temporal remote sensing. This research produced three distinct cropland products using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m normalized difference vegetation index 16-day composite time-series data for 16 years: 2000 through 2015. The products consisted of: (1) cropland extent/areas versus cropland fallow areas, (2) irrigated versus rainfed croplands, and (3) cropping intensities: single, double, and continuous cropping. An accurate reference cropland product (RCP) for the year 2014 (RCP2014) produced using QSMT was used as a knowledge base to train and develop the ACCA algorithm that was then applied to the MODIS time-series data for the years 2000–2015. A comparison between the ACCA-derived cropland products (ACPs) for the year 2014 (ACP2014) versus RCP2014 provided an overall agreement of 89.4% (kappa = 0.814) with six classes: (a) producer’s accuracies varying between 72% and 90% and (b) user’s accuracies varying between 79% and 90%. ACPs for the individual years 2000–2013 and 2015 (ACP2000–ACP2013, ACP2015) showed very strong similarities with several other studies. The extent and vigor of the Australian croplands versus cropland fallows were accurately captured by the ACCA algorithm for the years 2000–2015, thus highlighting the value of the study in food security analysis. The ACCA algorithm and the cropland products are released through http://croplands.org/app/map and http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/croplands/algorithms/australia_250m.html

International Journal of Digital Earth↗

Monitoring land surface albedo and vegetation dynamics using high spatial and temporal resolution synthetic time series from Landsat and the MODIS BRDF/NBAR/albedo product

Seasonal vegetation phenology can significantly alter surface albedo which in turn affects the global energy balance and the albedo warming/cooling feedbacks that impact climate change. To monitor and quantify the surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes, high temporal and spatial resolution synthetic time series of albedo and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were generated from the 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational Collection V006 daily BRDF/NBAR/albedo products and 30 m Landsat 5 albedo and near-nadir reflectance data through the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). The traditional Landsat Albedo (Shuai et al., 2011) makes use of the MODIS BRDF/Albedo products (MCD43) by assigning appropriate BRDFs from coincident MODIS products to each Landsat image to generate a 30 m Landsat albedo product for that acquisition date. The available cloud free Landsat 5 albedos (due to clouds, generated every 16 days at best) were used in conjunction with the daily MODIS albedos to determine the appropriate 30 m albedos for the intervening daily time steps in this study. These enhanced daily 30 m spatial resolution synthetic time series were then used to track albedo and vegetation phenology dynamics over three Ameriflux tower sites (Harvard Forest in 2007, Santa Rita in 2011 and Walker Branch in 2005). These Ameriflux sites were chosen as they are all quite nearby new towers coming on line for the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), and thus represent locations which will be served by spatially paired albedo measures in the near future. The availability of data from the NEON towers will greatly expand the sources of tower albedometer data available for evaluation of satellite products. At these three Ameriflux tower sites the synthetic time series of broadband shortwave albedos were evaluated using the tower albedo measurements with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.013 and a bias within the range of ±0.006. These synthetic time series provide much greater spatial detail than the 500 m gridded MODIS data, especially over more heterogeneous surfaces, which improves the efforts to characterize and monitor the spatial variation across species and communities. The mean of the difference between maximum and minimum synthetic time series of albedo within the MODIS pixels over a subset of satellite data of Harvard Forest (16 km by 14 km) was as high as 0.2 during the snow-covered period and reduced to around 0.1 during the snow-free period. Similarly, we have used STARFM to also couple MODIS Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectances (NBAR) values with Landsat 5 reflectances to generate daily synthetic times series of NBAR and thus Enhanced Vegetation Index (NBAR-EVI) at a 30 m resolution. While normally STARFM is used with directional reflectances, the use of the view angle corrected daily MODIS NBAR values will provide more consistent time series. These synthetic times series of EVI are shown to capture seasonal vegetation dynamics with finer spatial and temporal details, especially over heterogeneous land surfaces.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

Monitoring marine eruptions

Introduction Submarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and provides recommendations for monitoring volcanoes fully or partly in marine environments to meet the capabilities described in other chapters of this volume. The United States and its territories host dozens of submarine volcanoes with most (around 60) in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Approximately 20 of the Northern Mariana Islands submarine volcanoes are known to be hydrothermally active, and 10 have confirmed eruptions since the 1950s (for example, Baker and others, 2008; Tepp and others, 2019a). Nine of those volcanoes were considered by the National Volcanic Threat Assessment (Ewert and others, 2018) to have a combination of eruptive type and summit depth that poses a higher risk of hazardous eruptions, although only one was listed as a moderate (level 3) threat. Other notable submarine volcanoes of interest to the United States that have historically erupted are Axial Seamount off the Washington State coast, Kamaʻehuakanaloa in Hawaiʻi, and Vailuluʻu seamount in American Samoa. All of these, however, have a low risk of hazards because of their depth (greater than 600 meters below sea level) and eruptive type and so are not included in the National Volcanic Threat Assessment. In addition to submarine volcanoes, the submerged flanks of island volcanoes can also be a source of hazardous submarine eruptions—for example, the 1877 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, in Kealakekua Bay (Wanless and others, 2006). The most notable submarine eruption in recent times was the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in Tonga, which was one of the largest eruptions on Earth in the past 100 years. It created a massive volcanic plume, unprecedented shock waves, and far-reaching tsunami (Lynett and others, 2022). Other recent submarine eruptions in the Pacific Ocean Basin have produced subaerial plumes that reached aircraft heights (Carey and others, 2014) and large pumice rafts that can affect marine traffic and harbors (for example, Jutzeler and others, 2014; Kornei, 2019). These examples illustrate the potential hazards of major submarine eruptions. Yet, submarine volcanoes are largely unmonitored, and many eruptions occur that are unnoticed or only identified hours or days afterward. Within U.S. territory, submarine volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands have been known to produce eruptive activity that can affect society. Reports from fishermen and other marine vessels in the Northern Mariana Islands have noted underwater explosions, sea-surface discoloration, and bubbling water, all of which are known to be signs of submarine volcanic activity. South Sarigan seamount, located about 160 kilometers (km) north of Saipan, erupted in 2010 from greater than 150 meters below the sea surface, resulting in a gas and ash plume that reached more than 11.9 km into the atmosphere (for example, Searcy, 2013; Embley and others, 2014), high enough to affect international air traffic. Precursory and co-eruptive seismicity was detected on the regional Northern Mariana Islands seismic network (Searcy, 2013) and on global monitoring instruments (Green and others, 2013). Monitoring of submarine volcanoes is best accomplished with marine-based instrumentation, which is also useful for monitoring small island volcanoes that may not have the land area necessary for comprehensive subaerial monitoring. The primary marine-based instrumentation used for submarine volcanoes includes ocean-bottom pressure sensors to assess sea-floor deformation, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) to detect seismicity, and both moored and ocean-bottom hydrophones to detect submarine explosions. Other sensors offer important monitoring data, such as turbidity, temperature, and chemistry of hydrothermal emissions. Marine-based instruments are typically deployed in campaign-style networks with no real-time telemetry owing to cost considerations and technical limitations. However, when necessary, marine instruments can be operated in real time using cables to transmit data to land-based facilities; other technologies for this purpose are in use or in development, such as acoustic transmission from the instrument to a moored buoy (Matsumoto and others, 2016) and a winch-based system with a satellite antenna that is part of the instrument mooring (Matsumoto and others, 2019). Emerging technologies for marine-based monitoring may be considered as part of a future monitoring plan. These technologies include ocean gliders and floats with on-board hydrophones that have been used to record earthquakes and submarine eruptions (for example, Matsumoto and others, 2013; Sukhovich and others, 2015) and fiber-optic cables that have been used as strainmeters to detect earthquakes (for example, Marra and others, 2018; Lindsey and others, 2019). Land-based instruments and satellites can also provide some capability for monitoring submarine volcanoes, but they provide more limited observations than marine-based instrumentation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Debris-flow monitoring and warning: Review and examples

Debris flows represent one of the most dangerous types of mass movements, because of their high velocities, large impact forces and long runout distances. This review describes the available debris-flow monitoring techniques and proposes recommendations to inform the design of future monitoring and warning/alarm systems. The selection and application of these techniques is highly dependent on site and hazard characterization, which is illustrated through detailed descriptions of nine monitoring sites: five in Europe, three in Asia and one in the USA. Most of these monitored catchments cover less than ∼10 km 2 and are topographically rugged with Melton Indices greater than 0.5. Hourly rainfall intensities between 5 and 15 mm/h are sufficient to trigger debris flows at many of the sites, and observed debris-flow volumes range from a few hundred up to almost one million cubic meters. The sensors found in these monitoring systems can be separated into two classes: a class measuring the initiation mechanisms, and another class measuring the flow dynamics. The first class principally includes rain gauges, but also contains of soil moisture and pore-water pressure sensors. The second class involves a large variety of sensors focusing on flow stage or ground vibrations and commonly includes video cameras to validate and aid in the data interpretation. Given the sporadic nature of debris flows, an essential characteristic of the monitoring systems is the differentiation between a continuous mode that samples at low frequency (“non-event mode”) and another mode that records the measurements at high frequency (“event mode”). The event detection algorithm, used to switch into the “event mode” depends on a threshold that is typically based on rainfall or ground vibration. Identifying the correct definition of these thresholds is a fundamental task not only for monitoring purposes, but also for the implementation of warning and alarm systems.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

U.S. Geological Survey Activities Related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal Year 2005

Introduction This report describes the activities that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, educational institutions, and individuals during Federal fiscal year (FY) 2005. Most of these USGS activities were collaborations with Tribes, Tribal organizations, or professional societies. Others were conducted cooperatively with the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) or other Federal entities. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). The USGS does not have regulatory or land management responsibilities. As described in this report, there are many USGS activities that are directly relevant to American Indians, Alaska Natives, and to Native lands. A USGS website, dedicated to making USGS more accessible to American Indians, Alaska Natives, their governments, and institutions, is available at www.usgs.gov/indian. This website includes information on how to contact USGS American Indian/Alaska Native Liaisons, training opportunities, and links to other information resources. This report and previous editions are also available through the website. The USGS realizes that Native knowledge and cultural traditions of living in harmony with nature result in unique Native perspectives that enrich USGS studies. USGS seeks to increase the sensitivity and openness of its scientists to the breadth of Native knowledge, expanding the information on which their research is based. USGS scientific studies include data collection, mapping, natural resource modeling, and research projects. These projects typically last 2 or 3 years, although some are parts of longer-term activities. Some projects are funded cooperatively, with USGS funds matched or supplemented by individual Tribal governments, or by the BIA. These projects may also receive funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Indian Health Service (part of the Department of Health and Human Services), or other Federal agencies. The USGS routinely works with its sister bureaus in the Department of the Interior to provide the scientific information and expertise needed to meet the Department's science priorities. Some USGS activities described in this report are conducted as collateral tasks that result from USGS employees identifying and responding to perceived needs. These endeavors are usually prompted by employee interests and frequently involve educational activities. The education is often a reciprocal learning and teaching experience for USGS employees and for Native participants. Through these activities, USGS employees help to fulfill a mission of the USGS - to demonstrate scientific relevance - while helping their fellow citizens. Increasingly, some of the educational activities are becoming parts of formal USGS projects. USGS employees also take initiative in assisting American Indians and Alaska Natives by participating in several organizations that promote awareness of science career opportunities among Native peoples and help build support and communication networks. One such group is the American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES). USGS employees join this organization on a voluntary basis, bringing the benefits of this expanded network to the USGS, as many employees do with other professional organizations. The studies briefly described in this report span subsistence issues, wildlife health, water quality, mineral resources, monitoring and modeling to gather information and predict what may happen in the future. Although each project description relates to Native Americans in some way, the projects vary widely, including who conducted the work, the goals and products, the duration of the study, and whether it was local or covered a broad area. Each major organizational unit of the USGS has identified an American Indian/Alaska Native liaison. The USGS has a regional organizational structure, with Western, Central,

Circular↗

A 36-year record of rock avalanches in the Saint Elias Mountains of Alaska, with implications for future hazards

Glacial retreat and mountain-permafrost degradation resulting from rising global temperatures have the potential to impact the frequency and magnitude of landslides in glaciated environments. Several recent events, including the 2015 Taan Fiord rock avalanche, which triggered a tsunami with one of the highest wave runups ever recorded, have called attention to the hazards posed by landslides in regions like southern Alaska. In the Saint Elias Mountains, the presence of weak sedimentary and metamorphic rocks and active uplift resulting from the collision of the Yakutat and North American tectonic plates create landslide-prone conditions. To differentiate between the typical frequency of landsliding resulting from the geologic and tectonic setting of this region, and landslide processes that may be accelerated due to changes in climate, we used Landsat imagery to create an inventory of rock avalanches in a 3700 km2 area of the Saint Elias Mountains. During the period from 1984-2019, we identified 220 rock avalanches with a mean recurrence interval of 60 days. We compared our landslide inventory with a catalog of M ≥ 4 earthquakes to identify potential coseismic events, but only found three possible earthquake-triggered rock avalanches. We observed a distinct temporal cluster of 41 rock avalanches from 2013 through 2016 that correlated with above average air temperatures (including the three warmest years on record in Alaska, 2014-2016); this cluster was similar to a temporal cluster of recent rock avalanches in nearby Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. The majority of rock avalanches initiated from bedrock ridges in probable permafrost zones, suggesting that ice loss due to permafrost degradation, as opposed to glacial thinning, could be a dominant factor contributing to rock-slope failures in the high elevation areas of the Saint Elias Mountains. Although earthquake-triggered landslides have episodically occurred in southern Alaska, evidence from our study suggests that area-normalized rates of non-coseismic rock avalanches were greater during the period from 1964 to 2019, and that the frequency of these events will continue to increase as the climate continues to warm. These findings highlight the need for hazard assessments in Alaska that address changes in landslide patterns related to climate change.

Alaska↗

Trace elements in olivine fingerprint the source of 2018 magmas and shed light on explosive-effusive eruption cycles at Kīlauea Volcano

Understanding magma genesis and the evolution of intensive parameters (temperature, pressure, composition, degree of melting) in the mantle source of highly active volcanic systems is crucial for interpreting magma supply changes over time and recognizing cyclic behavior to anticipate future volcanic behavior. Major and trace elements in olivine are commonly used to study variations in mantle lithologies and melting conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure, oxygen fugacity) affecting the mantle over time. Here, we track the temporal evolution of primary melts through the most recent cycle of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea (Hawai‘i), which spans the last ∼500 years. We report major and trace elements in olivine from the last explosive period (∼1500 – early 1820’s Keanakāko‘i Tephra) and the most recent decade of the current effusive period (2018 LERZ, 2015–2018 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō, 2008–2018 lava lake and 2020 eruption in Halema‘uma‘u). Scandium concentrations in olivine allow characterizing changes in mantle source between 1500 and 2018, and suggest that the recent (2015–2018) magma feeding the Pu‘u‘ō‘ō cone did not significantly interact with the magma that erupted in the LERZ in 2018. The evolution of olivine and melt compositions over the past 500 years is not easily reconcilable with variations in mantle potential temperature, pressure of mantle melt pooling and storage, or oxygen fugacity. Instead, Sc, Mn, and Co concentrations and Ni/Mg ratio in high forsterite (Fo >87) olivine advocate for an increase in the proportion of clinopyroxene in the mantle source associated with a slightly higher degree of partial melting from 1500 to 2018. Changes in primitive melt compositions and degrees of mantle melting may well modulate magma supply to the crust and formation-replenishment of steady or ephemeral summit reservoirs, and thereby control transitions between explosive and effusive periods at Kīlauea. Analyzing trace elements in olivine at Kīlauea and elsewhere could therefore provide important clues on subtle changes occurring at the mantle level that might herald changes in volcanic behavior.

Hawaii↗

FLUXNET-CH4: A global, multi-ecosystem database and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH 4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH 4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ , last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH 4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20 ∘ S to 20 ∘ N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

Earth System Science Data↗

Methods of practice and guidelines for using survey-grade global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to establish vertical datum in the United States Geological Survey

Geodetic surveys have evolved through the years to the use of survey-grade (centimeter level) global positioning to perpetuate and post-process vertical datum. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technology to monitor natural hazards, ensure geospatial control for climate and land use change, and gather data necessary for investigative studies related to water, the environment, energy, and ecosystems. Vertical datum is fundamental to a variety of these integrated earth sciences. Essentially GNSS surveys provide a three-dimensional position x, y, and z as a function of the North American Datum of 1983 ellipsoid and the most current hybrid geoid model. A GNSS survey may be approached with post-processed positioning for static observations related to a single point or network, or involve real-time corrections to provide positioning "on-the-fly." Field equipment required to facilitate GNSS surveys range from a single receiver, with a power source for static positioning, to an additional receiver or network communicated by radio or cellular for real-time positioning. A real-time approach in its most common form may be described as a roving receiver augmented by a single-base station receiver, known as a single-base real-time (RT) survey. More efficient real-time methods involving a Real-Time Network (RTN) permit the use of only one roving receiver that is augmented to a network of fixed receivers commonly known as Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS). A post-processed approach in its most common form involves static data collection at a single point. Data are most commonly post-processed through a universally accepted utility maintained by the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), known as the Online Position User Service (OPUS). More complex post-processed methods involve static observations among a network of additional receivers collecting static data at known benchmarks. Both classifications provide users flexibility regarding efficiency and quality of data collection. Quality assurance of survey-grade global positioning is often overlooked or not understood and perceived uncertainties can be misleading. GNSS users can benefit from a blueprint of data collection standards used to ensure consistency among USGS mission areas. A classification of GNSS survey qualities provide the user with the ability to choose from the highest quality survey used to establish objective points with low uncertainties, identified as a Level I, to a GNSS survey for general topographic control without quality assurance, identified as a Level IV. A Level I survey is strictly limited to post-processed methods, whereas Level II, Level III, and Level IV surveys integrate variations of a RT approach. Among these classifications, techniques involving blunder checks and redundancy are important, and planning that involves the assessment of the overall satellite configuration, as well as terrestrial and space weather, are necessary to ensure an efficient and quality campaign. Although quality indicators and uncertainties are identified in post-processed methods using CORS, the accuracy of a GNSS survey is most effectively expressed as a comparison to a local benchmark that has a high degree of confidence. Real-time and post-processed methods should incorporate these "trusted" benchmarks as a check during any campaign. Global positioning surveys are expected to change rapidly in the future. The expansion of continuously operating reference stations, combined with newly available satellite signals, and enhancements to the conterminous geoid, are all sufficient indicators for substantial growth in real-time positioning and quality thereof.

Techniques and Methods↗

Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study

The southwestern United States consists of diverse ecosystems that are experiencing increasing pressures from rising temperatures, increasing aridity, and sea level rise. To prepare this region for future uncertainty, there is a need for strong partnerships among researchers and societal partners. The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) acts to foster engaged scholarship from diverse perspectives to produce science relevant for management and policy decisions. Here, we synthesized a subset of SW CASC-funded projects and published manuscripts to illustrate how the combination of new scientific knowledge and the research and practice of engaged scholarship produce actionable science with direct societal impacts. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Science section, we touch on new research produced from funded projects on the most common topics: (1) Forest Ecosystems, (2) Coastal Ecosystems, (3) Hydrometeorology, and (4) Research on Engaged Scholarship. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Impacts section, we outline engaged scholarship activities to demonstrate how they created societal impacts: (1) the Keepers of the Flame course and workshops, (2) the Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership and the Southern California Montane Forests Project, (3) the Coastal Managers Workshop, (4) the Colorado River Basin Wiki, and (5) the Natural Resource Workforce Development Program. In the SW CASC Publications Cited in Policy section, we used a bibliometric analysis to assess the impact of the SW CASC-funded research on policy. We analyzed how often publications were used in policy documents, finding a citation rate of 27.6%. This is high compared to similar analyses that found peer-reviewed research articles cited at a rate of 3.9% in policy documents. We conclude that coproduced science makes unique and important contributions to the resilience of the Southwest, not only by generating new knowledge but by building capacity, creating lasting relationships, and informing policy and conservation and management decisions.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗