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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS2016

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Tropical forests and global change: Biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023

Tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth (Hengl et al ., 2017 ), contain c . 30% of terrestrial C stocks (Jobbagy & Jackson, 2000 ), and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally (Jackson et al ., 1996 ), as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes (Cusack et al ., 2021 ). Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC, 2021 ) are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1 ), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108 th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1 ).

New Phytologist↗
USGS2012

Selecting sagebrush seed sources for restoration in a variable climate: ecophysiological variation among genotypes

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) communities dominate a large fraction of the United States and provide critical habitat for a number of wildlife species of concern. Loss of big sagebrush due to fire followed by poor restoration success continues to reduce ecological potential of this ecosystem type, particularly in the Great Basin. Choice of appropriate seed sources for restoration efforts is currently unguided due to knowledge gaps on genetic variation and local adaptation as they relate to a changing landscape. We are assessing ecophysiological responses of big sagebrush to climate variation, comparing plants that germinated from ~20 geographically distinct populations of each of the three subspecies of big sagebrush. Seedlings were previously planted into common gardens by US Forest Service collaborators Drs. B. Richardson and N. Shaw, (USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho) as part of the Great Basin Native Plant Selection and Increase Project. Seed sources spanned all states in the conterminous Western United States. Germination, establishment, growth and ecophysiological responses are being linked to genomics and foliar palatability. New information is being produced to aid choice of appropriate seed sources by Bureau of Land Management and USFS field offices when they are planning seed acquisitions for emergency post-fire rehabilitation projects while considering climate variability and wildlife needs.

Report↗
USGS2017

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Greater Yellowstone Area↗
USGS2013

Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Modeling climate and hydropower influences on the movement decisions of an anadromous species

In large river basins, migratory fish populations are threatened by the combination of hydropower and climate change. With river temperatures rising and hydropower development increasing globally, the longstanding monitoring programs for threatened Pacific salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin present an opportunity to study these impacts over extended time scales. We fit a statistical model to 20 years of PIT-tagging data to jointly model the effects of temperature and dam operations (spill management) on the movement of Steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss ) during their adult pre-spawn migration. We modeled the relationship between these factors and behaviors that pose mortality risks, including natal tributary overshoot (ascending a dam upstream of a natal tributary) and non-natal tributary use. We then used the posterior distributions of model-estimated parameters to predict the homing success of fish to natal tributaries under different climate and hydropower scenarios. Across the populations in our study, movement decisions were consistently thermally influenced, with temperature having a negative relationship with natal homing and a positive relationship with both natal tributary overshoot and non-natal tributary use. Another consistent finding across the populations in our study was that higher overshoot rates were associated with lower homing rates. Despite data limitations associated with the PIT-tag array network, we found evidence for population-specific benefits of winter spill on natal homing success, which is currently being implemented to assist the downstream migration of overshooting Steelhead. We demonstrate how integrating the effects of climate and hydropower management actions with movement ecology provides powerful insights into how species may respond to future scenarios. In our case study, we found that pre-spawn mortality of Steelhead is likely to increase with future climate change due to temperature-driven interactions with the hydrosystem, but there is potential for hydropower managers to partially offset these impacts.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Evaluating consumptive and nonconsumptive predator effects on prey density using field times series data

Determining the degree to which predation affects prey abundance in natural communities constitutes a key goal of ecological research. Predators can affect prey through both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs), although the contributions of each mechanism to the density of prey populations remain largely hypothetical in most systems. Common statistical methods applied to time series data cannot elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hypothesized predator effects on prey density (e.g., differentiate CEs from NCEs), nor provide parameters for predictive models. State space models (SSMs) applied to time series data offer a way to meet these goals. Here, we employ SSMs to assess effects of an invasive predatory zooplankter, Bythotrephes longimanus, on an important prey species, Daphnia mendotae, in Lake Michigan. We fit mechanistic models in a SSM framework to seasonal time series (1994-2012) using a recently developed, maximum likelihood-based optimization method, iterated filtering, which can overcome challenges in ecological data (e.g. nonlinearities, measurement error, and irregular sampling intervals). Our results indicate that B. longimanus strongly influences D. mendotae dynamics, with mean annual peak densities of B. longimanus observed in Lake Michigan estimated to cause a 61% reduction in D. mendotae population growth rate and a 59% reduction in peak biomass density. Further, the observed B. longimanus effect is most consistent with an NCE via reduced birth rates. The SSM approach also provided estimates for key biological parameters (e.g., demographic rates) and the contribution of dynamic stochasticity and measurement error. Our study therefore provides evidence derived directly from survey data that the invasive zooplankter B. longimanus is affecting zooplankton demographics and offer parameter estimates needed to inform predictive models that explore the effect of B. longimanus under different scenarios such as climate change.

Ecology↗
USGS2024

Pollen in polar ice implies eastern Canadian forest dynamics diverged from climate after European settlement

Rapid warming and human exploitation threaten boreal forests. Understanding links among vegetation, climate, and people in this vast biome requires highly resolved long-term records that integrate regional inputs. We developed an 850-year pollen-based record of supraregional vegetation change using a southern Greenland ice core and atmospheric modeling that identified the boreal and mixed-conifer forests of eastern Canada as the dominant pollen source regions. Conifer pollen increased ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice Age. A subsequent decline began ∼1650 CE and a statistically significant pollen change after 1760 CE suggests ecological consequences of the Little Ice Age cooling and initial human exploitation that persisted until recent decades. These supraregional changes are broadly consistent with local records and demonstrate intensification of human impacts on northern forests, suggesting a shift from a climate-modulated to an increasingly human-controlled system during recent centuries.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1996

Differentiating climatic and successional influences on long-term development of a marsh

Comparison of long—term records of local wetland vegetation dynamics with regional, climate—forced terrestrial vegetation changes can be used to differentiate the rates and effects of autogenic successional processes and allogenic environmental change on wetland vegetation dynamics. We studied Holocene plant macrofossil and pollen sequences from Portage Marsh, a shallow, 18—ha marsh in northeastern Indiana. Between 10 000 and 5700 yr BP the basin was occupied by a shallow, open lake, while upland vegetation consisted of mesic forests of Pinus, Quercus, Ulmus, and Carya. At 5700 yr BP the open lake was replaced rapidly by a shallow marsh, while simultaneously Quercus savanna developed on the surrounding uplands. The marsh was characterized by periodic drawdowns, and the uplands by periodic fires. Species composition of the marsh underwent further changes between 3000 and 2000 yr BP. Upland pollen spectra at Portage Marsh and other sites in the region shifted towards more mesic vegetation during that period. The consistency and temporal correspondence between the changes in upland vegetation and marsh vegetation indicate that the major vegetational changes in the marsh during the Holocene resulted from hydrologic changes forced by regional climate change. Progressive shallowing of the basin by autogenic accumulation of organic sediment constrained vegetational responses to climate change but did not serve as the direct mechanism of change.

Ecology↗
USGS2025

Systematic shifts in the variation among host individuals must be considered in climate-disease theory

To make more informed predictions of host–pathogen interactions under climate change, studies have incorporated the thermal performance of host, vector and pathogen traits into disease models to quantify effects on average transmission rates. However, this body of work has omitted the fact that variation in susceptibility among individual hosts affects disease spread and long-term patterns of host population dynamics. Furthermore, and especially for ectothermic host species, variation in susceptibility is likely to be plastic, influenced by variables such as environmental temperature. For example, as host individuals respond idiosyncratically to temperature, this could affect the population-level variation in susceptibility, such that there may be predictable functional relationships between variation in susceptibility and temperature. Quantifying the relationship between temperature and among-host trait variation will therefore be critical for predicting how climate change and disease will interact to influence host–pathogen population dynamics. Here, we use a model to demonstrate how short-term effects of temperature on the distribution of host susceptibility can drive epidemic characteristics, fluctuations in host population sizes and probabilities of host extinction. Our results emphasize that more research is needed in disease ecology and climate biology to understand the mechanisms that shape individual trait variation, not just trait averages.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2020

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through time-series remote sensing

Californias Central Valley, USA is a critical component of the Pacific Flyway despite loss of more than 90% of its wetlands. Moist soil seed (MSS) wetland plants are now produced by mimicking seasonal flooding in managed wetlands to provide an essential food resource for waterfowl. Managers need MSS plant area and productivity estimates to support waterfowl conservation, yet this remains unknown at the landscape scale. Also the effects of recent drought on MSS plants have not been quantified. We generated Landsat-derived estimates of extents and productivity (seed yield or its proxy, the green chlorophyll index) of major MSS plants including watergrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) and smartweed (Polygonum spp.) (WGSW), and swamp timothy (Crypsis schoenoides) (ST) in all Central Valley managed wetlands from 20072017. We tested the effects of water year, land ownership and region on plant area and productivity with a multifactor nested analysis of variance. For the San Joaquin Valley we explored the association between water year and water supply, and we developed metrics to support management decisions. MSS plant area maps were based on a support vector machine classification of Landsat phenology metrics (2017 map overall accuracy: 89%). ST productivity maps were created with a linear regression model of seed yield (n=68, R2 = 0.53, normalized RMSE = 10.5%). The Central Valley-wide estimated area for ST in 2017 was 32,369 ha 2,524 ha (95% C.I.), and 13,012 ha 1,384 ha for WGSW. Mean ST seed yield ranged from 577 kg/ha in the Delta Basin to 365 kg/ha in the San Joaquin Basin. WGSW area and ST seed yield decreased while ST area increased in critical drought years compared to normal water years (Scheffes test, p<0.05). Greatest ST area increases occurred in the Sacramento Valley (~75%). Voluntary water deliveries increased in normal water years, and ST seed yield increased with water supply. Z-scores of ST seed yield can be used to evaluate wetland performance and aid resource allocation decisions. Updated maps will support habitat monitoring, conservation planning and water management in future years, which are likely to face greater uncertainty in water availability with climate change.

California↗
USGS2018

Flood effects on soil thermal regimes in contrasting cold‐desert river floodplains (Yampa and Green rivers, Colorado)

Heat transfer theory suggests that floodplain soils in dryland riverine ecosystems can be cooled by hyporheic flows generated during spring floods. I compared soil temperature cycles and associated hydrologic factors on a free‐flowing river to those on a river where flows and surface water temperatures are now regulated. Spring surface water temperatures were comparable on the 2 rivers, as was apparent diffusivity of the soil under mature Populus fremontii in a year when severe drought produced similar soil moisture regimes. Over 9 years of monitoring, mean annual maximum soil temperature was higher on the regulated river than on the free‐flowing river (10 cm depth: 33 vs. 23 °C; 40 cm depth: 30 vs. 20°C, respectively), and sinusoidal models of the annual temperature cycle at each depth indicated higher means and greater amplitudes on the regulated river. The annual maximum soil temperature was inversely related to peak flood discharge on the free‐flowing river but not on the regulated river. Temporal shifts in the lag between diel cycles at 40 and 10 cm depths—an index of soil thermal diffusivity—suggested that the capillary fringe is strongly involved in heat exchange. An increase in the lag during some water table declines suggested that shallow soils may undergo flood‐induced evaporative cooling. Hyporheic recharge can be an ecologically important determinant of growing‐season soil temperatures at plant rooting depth in dryland river floodplains. Reductions in spring flood magnitude due to river regulation, water abstraction, or climate change can increase these temperatures and thereby alter ecosystem structure and functioning.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

N supply mediates the radiative balance of N2O emissions and CO2 sequestration driven by N-fixing vs. non-fixing trees

Forests are a significant CO 2 sink. However, CO 2 sequestration in forests is radiatively offset by emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas, from forest soils. Reforestation, an important strategy for mitigating climate change, has focused on maximizing CO 2 sequestration in plant biomass without integrating N 2 O emissions from soils. Although nitrogen (N)-fixing trees are often recommended for reforestation because of their rapid growth on N-poor soil, they can stimulate significant N 2 O emissions from soils. Here, we first used a field experiment to show that a N-fixing tree ( Robinia pseudoacacia ) initially mitigated climate change more than a non-fixing tree ( Betula nigra ). We then used our field data to parameterize a theoretical model to investigate these effects over time. Under lower N supply, N-fixers continued to mitigate climate change more than non-fixers by overcoming N limitation of plant growth. However, under higher N supply, N-fixers ultimately mitigated climate change less than non-fixers by enriching soil N and stimulating N 2 O emissions from soils. These results have implications for reforestation, suggesting that N-fixing trees are more effective at mitigating climate change at lower N supply, whereas non-fixing trees are more effective at mitigating climate change at higher N supply.

New York↗
USGS2016

A modeling study of the impacts of Mississippi River diversion and sea-level rise on water quality of a deltaic estuary

Freshwater and sediment management in estuaries affects water quality, particularly in deltaic estuaries. Furthermore, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence also affect estuarine water quality by changing salinity, circulation, stratification, sedimentation, erosion, residence time, and other physical and ecological processes. However, little is known about how the magnitudes and spatial and temporal patterns in estuarine water quality variables will change in response to freshwater and sediment management in the context of future SLR. In this study, we applied the Delft3D model that couples hydrodynamics and water quality processes to examine the spatial and temporal variations of salinity, total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-α concentration in response to small (142 m 3 s −1 ) and large (7080 m 3 s −1 ) Mississippi River (MR) diversions under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative SLR (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) scenarios in the Breton Sound Estuary, Louisiana, USA. The hydrodynamics and water quality model were calibrated and validated via field observations at multiple stations across the estuary. Model results indicate that the large MR diversion would significantly affect the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of the studied water quality variables across the entire estuary, whereas the small diversion tends to influence water quality only in small areas near the diversion. RSLR would also play a significant role on the spatial heterogeneity in estuary water quality by acting as an opposite force to river diversions; however, RSLR plays a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of the water quality parameters in this deltaic estuary.

Louisiana↗
USGS2011

An analysis of modern pollen rain from the Maya lowlands of northern Belize

In the lowland Maya area, pollen records provide important insights into the impact of past human populations and climate change on tropical ecosystems. Despite a long history of regional paleoecological research, few studies have characterized the palynological signatures of lowland ecosystems, a fact which lowers confidence in ecological inferences made from palynological data. We sought to verify whether we could use pollen spectra to reliably distinguish modern ecosystem types in the Maya lowlands of Central America. We collected 23 soil and sediment samples from eight ecosystem types, including upland, riparian, secondary, and swamp ( bajo ) forests; pine savanna; and three distinct wetland communities. We analyzed pollen spectra with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), and found significant compositional differences in ecosystem types' pollen spectra. Forested sites had spectra dominated by Moraceae/Urticaceae pollen, while non-forested sites had significant portions of Poaceae, Asteraceae, and Amaranthaceae pollen. Upland, bajo , and riparian forest differed in representation of Cyperaceae, Bactris -type, and Combretaceae/Melastomataceae pollen. High percentages of pine ( Pinus ), oak ( Quercus ), and the presence of Byrsonima characterized pine savanna. Despite its limited sample size, this study provides one of the first statistical analyses of modern pollen rain in the Maya lowlands. Our results show that pollen assemblages can accurately reflect differences between ecosystem types, which may help refine interpretations of pollen records from the Maya area.

Maya lowlands↗
USGS2019

To what extent is drought-induced tree mortality a natural phenomenon?

Aim Catastrophic forest mortality due to more extreme rainfall deficits and higher temperatures under future climate scenarios has been predicted. The aim of this study is to explore the magnitude of historical drought-induced tree mortality under pre-warming conditions. Location North-eastern Australia. Time period 1845–2017. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods Field survey, historical analysis and climate analysis. Results We present evidence of 18%–30% tree mortality from recent droughts across three regions of north-eastern Australia with rainfall deficits less severe than earlier historical droughts. The corrected temperature record represents modest warming at the stations with long records in the vicinity of the study areas. In terms of rainfall deficit the most severe drought on record occurred in the early 20th century, and historical evidence confirms that this drought and earlier droughts before the advent of pastoralism coincided with substantial tree mortality. Main conclusions Dramatic declines in woody biomass in response to drought historically occurred more than once a century and are a natural phenomenon in semi-arid Australia. The magnitude of drought-induced tree mortality under natural climate fluctuations requires further investigation in other continents. Widespread drought-induced tree mortality is not just a recent global change phenomenon and has been underestimated as a natural ecological process. However, even more severe forest die-off events from more extreme hotter droughts are predicted if Earth’s warming proceeds as currently projected.

Queensland↗
USGS2019

Flow modification in the Nation’s streams and rivers

This report summarizes a national assessment of flowing waters conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project and addresses several pressing questions about the modification of natural flows in streams and rivers. The assessment is based on the integration, modeling, and synthesis of monitoring data collected by the USGS and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at more than 7,000 streams and rivers across the conterminous United States from 1980 to 2014. Key findings include the following. First, flow in many of the Nation’s streams and rivers is different from what it would be under natural conditions. In particular, low flows are more frequent, are of shorter duration, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. In addition, high flows have been reduced in magnitude, are of shorter duration, are less frequent, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. Other characteristics of natural flows also have been modified. Second, over the last 60 years (1955–2014), climatic trends have caused a change of 50 percent or more in one or more streamflow attributes at two-thirds of climate-sensitive streamgaging sites. However, these climate-induced changes have been less influential on streamflow modification than have land and water-management practices. Third, in every region assessed, streamflow modification was associated with reduced ecological health, as indicated by two biological communities—invertebrates and fish. Biological communities were increasingly likely to be impaired (defined as having lost a statistically significant number of species) in streams with flows most different from natural conditions. Finally, several case studies are presented that illustrate viable management strategies for balancing the water needs of people and ecosystems.

Circular↗
USGS2015

Chemical and biotic characteristics of prairie lakes and large wetlands in south-central North Dakota—Effects of a changing climate

The climate of the prairie pothole region of North America is known for variability that results in significant interannual changes in water depths and volumes of prairie lakes and wetlands; however, beginning in July 1993, the climate of the region shifted to an extended period of increased precipitation that has likely been unequaled in the preceding 500 years. Associated changing water volumes also affect water chemical characteristics, with potential effects on fish and wildlife populations. To explore the effect of changing climate patterns, in 2012 and 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey revisited 167 of 178 prairie lakes and large wetlands of south-central North Dakota that were originally sampled in the mid-1960s to mid-1970s. During the earlier sampling period, these lakes and wetlands displayed a great range of chemical characteristics (for example, specific conductance ranged from 365 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius to 70,300 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius); however, increased water volumes have resulted in greatly reduced variation among lakes and wetlands and a more homogeneous set of chemical conditions defined by pH, specific conductance, and concentrations of major cations and anions. High concentrations of dissolved solids previously limited fish occurrence in many of the lakes and wetlands sampled; however, freshening of these lakes and large wetlands has allowed fish to populate and flourish where they were previously absent. Conversely, the freshening of previously saline lakes and wetlands has resulted in concurrent shifts away from invertebrate species adapted to live in these highly saline environments. A shift in the regional climate has changed a highly diverse landscape of wetlands (fresh to highly saline) to a markedly more homogeneous landscape that has reshaped the fish and wildlife communities of this ecologically and economically important region.

North Dakota↗