Critical minerals memory match game
An educational information packet about the 2025 List of Critical Minerals, which includes a memory match game about select critical minerals and how they are used.
General Information Product↗
SEARCH · USGS Science
Search USGS Science
Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Time-to-depth conversion of seismic-reflection data from eastern Lake Superior and implications for the eastern arm of the Midcontinent Rift
Seismic-reflection data were acquired in the mid 1980s along several lines across eastern Lake Superior by industry and the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE) (Fig. 1). The lines form part of a larger network of crossing lines over the entire lake, which can be used to develop three-dimensional geologic models of the Mesoproterozoic Midcontinent Rift that lies below. To better interpret these lines, we developed velocity models to convert seismic reflections versus two-way travel time (TWTT) to reflections versus depth. In addition, the velocity models themselves provide insights into the structure of the Midcontinent Rift by recognizing common velocity ranges for certain rock types (Grauch, 2023).
eastern Lake Superior↗
Rebuttal to correspondence on “Examining the compositional selectivity of hydrocarbon oxidation products using liquid–liquid extraction and solid-phase extraction techniques”
No abstract available.
Environmental Science & Technology↗
Beyond technical expertise: The role of mindset, interpersonal, and intrapersonal skills in the development of fisheries professionals
Objective Recognized as essential components for success, mindset and inter- and intrapersonal skills (often referred to as soft skills) play a crucial role in the growth and effectiveness of individuals throughout their careers. Individuals with strong inter- and intrapersonal skills and a mindset open to growth can efficiently navigate complex challenges that may involve working with diverse stakeholder groups, managing interdisciplinary teams, or resolving conflicts in ways that allow them to excel beyond their technical skill sets. Although formal education of natural resources professionals (and many other professions) generally prioritizes technical skills, cultivating inter- and intrapersonal skills and a growth mindset is critical to success. Methods Drawing on presentations and discussion from an early-career symposium at the 2023 American Fisheries Society Conference, we summarize skill sets valuable for success in fisheries and natural resources. Results We provide an overview of the roles mindset and inter- and intrapersonal skills have in developing a career, how to use these competencies to navigate natural resources professions, and actions for enhancing personal skills. This paper aims to provide a compendium of information and lessons learned from natural resources professionals with diverse experiences and to emphasize familiar concepts to help formalize their discussion in the fisheries profession. Conclusion Fisheries and other natural resource fields have become increasingly interdisciplinary, necessitating a broad suite of skills to effectively communicate across disciplines, convey multiple data types, and make decisions to address complex problems. Inter- and intrapersonal skill sets are foundational to successfully navigating the fisheries profession. Moreover, personal skills transcend our profession into our everyday lives, thus strengthening personal skills is a worthy endeavor.
Fisheries↗
A novel method for quantifying streambed penetrability to inform benthic habitat assessment
Objective Penetrability of streambed sediments is important for the ecological functioning of many benthic organisms, yet there is ambiguity in terminology associated with this concept and there is no standardized method of penetrability measurement available to scientists and resource managers. The goal of our study was to better define the terms of compaction and penetrability as they relate to streambed substrate and to advance the measurement techniques for assessing penetrability of bed sediments in gravel-bed streams. Methods We tested the performance of a modified penetrometer method in 12 different substrate configurations in the laboratory and used the data to determine the relationship between penetration depth and substrate characteristics. We then simulated additional sampling effort and used bootstrapping methods to provide guidance on the number of samples required to achieve consistent results. Finally, we tested the device in a field setting to validate our laboratory and simulation results. Results Depth of penetration was negatively related to increasing substrate particle diameter and number of particle size-classes in both laboratory and field tests. Mean depth of penetration and CV stabilized after five samples, but variation remained high in scenarios containing large-grained particles. Conclusions Our results show that the device has application in gravel-bed streams but may require high amounts of sampling effort to capture variation in streams dominated by large substrate. We discuss the uses and limitations of this method for estimating substrate penetrability and provide guidance on interpretation of the estimates that it produces.
Transaction of the American Fisheries Society↗
Beyond barriers: Fish assemblage recovery following dam removal on the Cuyahoga River, a Lake Erie tributary
Dam removals are increasing globally, yet ecological outcomes vary widely because biological recovery depends on post-removal connectivity and access to source populations. We evaluated how multiple dam removals and remaining fragmentation influenced fish assemblage recovery in the Cuyahoga River (OH, United States), a historically polluted Great Lakes tributary now undergoing extensive remediation and restoration. Using fish assemblage data collected from 1984 to 2024 across reaches downstream, within, and upstream of the Gorge Plant Dam (GPD), an 18-m barrier slated for removal, we quantified spatial and temporal change with ordination, trajectory, and distance-based redundancy analyses. Downstream assemblages showed a clear shift through time and gained 15 newly detected taxa after the 2020 Brecksville Dam removal increased longitudinal connectivity to Lake Erie by 39 river kilometers, more than doubling free-flowing habitat below GPD. In contrast, assemblages upstream of GPD exhibited limited change and patterns consistent with redistribution of resident species rather than colonization-driven turnover. Across the full time series, site position relative to GPD and the rate of dam removal were the strongest predictors of assemblage variation, with habitat gradients (e.g. depth, velocity, turbidity, and canopy cover) further differentiating reaches. Together, these results show that connectivity and barrier position shape assemblage recovery following dam removal. Most newly detected taxa downstream were native, though three were nonnative, indicating trade-offs between recolonization and nonnative spread.
Ohio↗
Patterns of recent brook trout invasion in bull trout streams in relation to habitat, source connectivity, biotic resistance, and disturbance
Knowledge of which habitats are at risk of invasion by nonnative species is essential to conservation, but a changing climate often complicates assessments of where future invasions may occur. Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis threaten cold-adapted native salmonids throughout western North America, and the extent of future invasions in coldwater streams is recognized as an area of uncertainty with important consequences. We addressed this uncertainty using spatial-stream-network (SSN) modeling to develop a species distribution model (SDM) for brook trout in Idaho, creating high-resolution prediction maps of suitable (i.e., invadable) habitat under baseline (1990–2015) and future (2080s) climate scenarios, and querying predictions within natal bull trout S. confluentus habitat patches (stream–subwatershed scale) for each scenario. Results indicated that brook trout will experience a net loss of suitable habitat in Idaho, but a large increase of suitable habitat in cold streams. The total proportion of bull trout habitat invadable by brook trout increased from 0.33 during the baseline scenario to 0.44 during the future scenario—a result of upstream expansions of brook trout habitat that were partially offset by contractions in bull trout habitat. Changes in the proportion of invadable habitat varied widely among bull trout patches. Between scenarios, the largest increases in suitable habitat occurred in small, low-gradient, unconfined streams with mean August water temperatures of 7–9 °C during the baseline period. A relatively small proportion of patches contained the majority of invadable habitat in both scenarios, particularly patches in “U-shaped” glacial valleys. A changing climate will broadly increase the threat that brook trout pose to bull trout, but the degree of change experienced by individual populations will vary with local context. The high-resolution prediction maps created by our SSN model will help conservation planners identify and prioritize control efforts on the small proportion of brook trout populations that most threaten bull trout.
Idaho↗
Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the Berkine, Illizi, Hamra, Murzuq, and Erdis Kufra Basins of northern Africa, 2026
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 419 million barrels of oil and 5.5 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Berkine, Illizi, Hamra, Murzuq, and Erdis Kufra Basins of northern Africa.
Berkine, Illizi, Hamra, Murzuq, and Erdis Kufra Ba↗
The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region
Introduction The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region. During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region. Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores. To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗
Advancing ecosystem recovery with diverse species plantings in tropical forest restoration
Tropical forest restoration has increased in the past decades, with possible advancements given the UN declaration of the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration”. However, robust assessments to compare ecosystem functions among restored forest stages are essential. We evaluated 13 actively restored forest stands ranging from 3 to 21 years of age and compared measures of forest biodiversity, structure, and ecosystem function to four 70+ year old “reference” stands that serve as restoration “targets” in the study region of the Premontane wet forest of Costa Rica. The restored stands were planted with an average of 13 tree species on abandoned pastures that were fallow for at least two years. Sixteen tree-stand attributes and six ecosystem function estimates were assessed, including: annual biomass (C) accumulation, N-fixation potential, threatened species conservation, and the provision of avian frugivore forage, insect habitat, and insect pollination. Using Principal Component Analysis, linear modeling, and Mahalanobis distance analyses, we learned that planting a diversity of tree species sets the stage for forest recovery at early restoration ages, with an inflection point at 15 years towards older reference forest characteristics and functions. Given that all restoration ages provided tree diversity and some level of ecosystem functions, the value of all restored stands in the landscape is notable. The assessment methods are easily employed, thereby providing an accessible tool to restoration practitioners.
Monteverde↗
Factors affecting benthic macroinvertebrate health in the City of Roanoke, Virginia, 2020–2023
Major waterways in the City of Roanoke (City) have failed to meet Virginia’s aquatic life designated use since 1996. Segments of the upper Roanoke River lack healthy benthic macroinvertebrate communities which prompted a total maximum daily load (TMDL) study by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) to identify the most probable stressor(s) causing the impairment. Excess fine sediment was identified as the most probable stressor impairing benthic macroinvertebrates on portions of the Roanoke River in 2006, and a watershed implementation plan published in 2016 required communities within the impaired watershed to implement projects that would reduce the load of fine sediment entering the Roanoke River. Additional benthic macroinvertebrate sampling and stream habitat assessments along the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek (a tributary to the Roanoke River that flows through the City) revealed continued impaired conditions, and subsequent stressor identification analysis was completed in 2023. Samples collected downstream of the City on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek generally showed more impaired conditions relative to samples collected at locations upstream of the City. Based on this evaluation, sediment and sediment-bound polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were identified as probable stressors while specific conductance, total nitrogen, and sediment metals were possible stressors in Tinker Creek; however, only a sediment TMDL target was identified to address impaired benthic macroinvertebrate communities. In the Roanoke River upstream of the Niagara Dam, sediment and total phosphorus were identified as probable stressors, sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and sediment PCB were considered possible stressors; however, the TMDL target was only for total phosphorus. The City partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2016 to continuously monitor water quality and streamflow conditions on a major tributary of Tinker Creek, Lick Run, and by 2020, four similar monitoring stations were installed on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek near the locations of benthic macroinvertebrate sampling. Monitored parameters included streamflow and/or gage height (water level), water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and turbidity. Turbidity is a measure of the relative clarity of the water and was previously used to model suspended-sediment concentrations at the monitoring stations. The City also contracted Kirk Environmental, LLP (KE) to collect benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessments near the locations of the water-quality monitoring stations. Identified benthic macroinvertebrates were used to calculate the Virginia Stream Condition Index (SCI), a multi-metric index composed of eight biological attributes that represent elements of the structure and function of the benthic macroinvertebrate community that measure diversity, composition, and tolerance to pollution. Study objective: In this report, benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessment scores collected at four locations on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek by KE and the VDEQ between 2020 and 2023 were compared to measured water-quality and streamflow conditions prior to sampling to evaluate patterns between benthic macroinvertebrate health, water quality, and hydrology.
Virginia↗
A 2.5 km movement by a potentially ill white-tailed deer along Nantasket Beach in suburban Massachusetts, USA
White-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) ecology has received significant research attention, yet there is a need for further synthetic work on the species across environmental contexts and research areas. Opportunistic natural history accounts can help identify new conceptual links and research directions by offering new observations and ideas, synthesizing context from the literature, and highlighting gaps in understanding. We provide an opportunistic account of a 2.5 km movement of a white-tailed deer walking, wading, and swimming along Nantasket Beach in a suburban context in Massachusetts, USA. The deer displayed behaviors that could potentially be reflective of trauma, disorientation, or illness, including possibly symptomatic head movements and crouching behavior. The behavior of the deer may also have been influenced by the coastal and suburban context in which the observation took place. Our account explores swimming, deer behavior, and possible illness in a coastal, suburban context. We highlight the need for additional research on the ecology and management of white-tailed deer, including swimming and disease in coastal, marine, and developed contexts, and intersections across these areas.
Massachusetts↗
Whatever it takes— Shaping the L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor to deliver true benefit
There are clear advantages for those who openly share their research. Publishing Open Access (OA) articles can increase author visibility (McCabe and Snyder 2014 ), improve productivity metrics (i.e., more diverse and higher citation rates; Huang et al. 2024 ; Piwowar et al. 2018 ), widen collaborative networks (Tai and Robinson 2018 ), and help secure future funding and/or comply with funder mandates (Herrmannova et al. 2019 ; Larivière and Sugimoto 2018 ; McKiernan et al. 2016 and references therein). These benefits can be vital for students and early career researchers (ECRs) trying to advance and thrive in academia. However, publishing papers in Gold OA journals such as L&O Letters comes at a notable financial cost, as these journals require that the corresponding author (or their organization or funder) pay a fee to make their published article immediately freely available to the public. These article processing charges can be prohibitively expensive (Fontúrbel and Vizentin-Bugoni 2021 ; Mekonnen et al. 2022 ; Ross-Hellauer et al. 2022 ). While Read and Publish agreements and waiver programs may be available to help cover these costs, these programs often exclude independent authors as well as those affiliated with ineligible or non-participating institutions (e.g., publisher waivers using the Research4Life eligibility criteria for access currently only allow authors from one of 13 South American countries/territories to publish free of charge). Besides the financial barrier, authors from underrepresented groups can also face a myriad of other publishing roadblocks, such as linguistic challenges (for speakers of English as a foreign language; Amano et al. 2023 ; Franco-Santos 2024 ; Ramírez-Castañeda 2020 ) and geopolitical-scientific bias (e.g., science conducted in the Global South being seen as less impactful and innovative than that conducted in the Global North; Ghosh 2022 ; Smits et al. 2025 ). For context, Global South (GS) and Global North (GN) are not geographic determinations (i.e., South and North hemispheres), but geopolitical classifications regarding a nation's level of development (underdeveloped, developing, or developed). For example: Australia and Brazil are both located in the southern hemisphere, but the former is considered as a Global North (developed) country and the latter as a Global South (underdeveloped or developing) country. When a subset of researchers is unable to openly publish their work, the diversity of voices represented in OA literature can decline (Williams et al. 2023 ). Loss of diversity is a loss to science, as diversity increases productivity, innovation, and scientific impact (refer to opening quote; Freeman and Huang 2014 ; AlShebli et al. 2018 ; Tomillo et al. 2022 ). To partially address the above-mentioned challenges and enable underfunded ECRs to publish their work in OA format, the biennial L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor (ECPH) was established in 2020 by the ASLO Raelyn Cole Editorial (RCE) Fellows (Hotaling et al. 2022 ). Below we reflect on the benefits, outcomes, and scientific impact of the 2022 call and introduce the articles it helped publish in L&O Letters , which are bundled in this section of the ECPH Virtual Issue. Articles published in L&O Letters during other calls are available in their respective sections. We also refer the reader to six articles published by ECRs in other journals (not included in this Virtual Issue) whose content originally warranted their leading author an ECPH in 2022.
Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗
Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model
The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.
Mathematical Geosciences↗
Remote sensing enables basin-scale inventories of coal mine methane
Underground coal mines are important global sources of methane, but emission estimates are uncertain. We show that emission estimates for individual mines from aircraft remote-sensing surveys in the United States agree within 40% with direct measurements used for national emission reporting (IPCC Tier 3 estimate). Such direct measurements are unavailable in most countries, which rely on estimated emission factors (EFs) applied to coal-production rates. We find that EFs from IPCC Tier 1 and the Model for Calculating Coal Mine Methane (MC2M) methods overestimate U.S. emissions 3-fold due to incorrect dependence on mine depth. An IPCC Tier 2 method using measured basin-specific mine gas content agrees with direct emission measurements but does not account for gob well emissions and requires gas content data that are generally unavailable. We show that aircraft remote sensing for a small sample of mines can successfully estimate basin-specific EFs for ventilation shafts and gob wells, enabling estimates of basin- and national-scale emissions. We discuss how the method can be applied with satellite remote sensing to quantify coal emissions worldwide.
Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, New Mexico, Ohio, Pen↗
The accelerating loss and shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands
Tidal wetlands are critical ecosystems for coastal sustainability, yet despite growing regulatory protection, they continue to decline globally. Their long-term resilience to interacting chronic stressors and extreme events remains uncertain, in part because comprehensive, high-frequency monitoring has been lacking. While direct land-use conversion has been substantially restricted in the United States, the true trajectory of these protected habitats has remained unclear. Here, we use four decades of high-resolution satellite records to analyze the shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands. We reveal a widespread and previously unquantified acceleration in the rate of tidal wetland loss, amounting to a net loss of −1640 km 2 at the rate of −40.53 km 2 year −1 , accelerating by −0.73 km 2 year −2 , of which tidal marsh contributed the majority of this loss with a cumulative decline of 1567 km 2 . Furthermore, we show that the drivers of this decline are shifting: while chronic stressors like relative sea level rise have caused the largest cumulative loss (~60% of the total area loss), acute shocks from extreme weather now dominate (1.4 times that of the chronic stressors) the acceleration of that loss. By contrast, direct human activities were a minor driver, accounting for only 4% of total observed losses. These findings indicate that the resilience of these protected ecosystems is declining. It provides an urgent warning that existing conservation strategies, initially concerned with direct human impacts and increasingly focused on relative sea level rise as a slow-moving pressure, are ill-equipped for a future of increasing extreme weather events and highlights the need to redesign adaptation policies.
conterminous United States↗
Functional restructuring of the global soil microbiome under multiple stressors
Microbes, as the planet’s most abundant and diverse organisms, drive soil functions globally and are vulnerable to environmental stressors triggered by global change. Yet, knowledge regarding the impacts of multiple environmental stressors on their functional profiles as well as the consequences for soil functionality largely remains unknown. Here, we analyze two global-scale datasets including information on soil metagenomics and multiple environmental stressors. We find that across terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, up to 60% of all functional genes significantly shift when soil microbes experience the high-level of concurrent stressors. In this regard, the relative abundances of genes involved in microbial growth are negatively linked to the increasing number of stressors. Conversely, those genes linked to stress resistance and energy production exhibit positive responses. Taken together, our findings highlight a significant restructuring of global soil functional microbiomes in response to multiple environmental stressors. Consequently, such restructuring drives community-level shifts in matter and energy reallocations, thereby impacting the maintenance of soil functionality under the projected global change.
Nature Communications↗
Incorporating location uncertainty improves inference with stop-level North American Breeding Bird Survey data
Ecological models should account for uncertainty to be most effective and useful. Yet, uncertainty from model covariates—unlike that from other sources, such as sampling error or process variability—is seldom explicitly incorporated. This can cause underestimates of uncertainty to cascade through model parameter estimates, predictions, and downstream uses. Burner et al. proposed a method for quantifying uncertainty in covariates and incorporating it into models using informative Bayesian priors. This method was applied to stop-level Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) analyses, where land cover uncertainty at each stop arises from substantial stop location uncertainty. A limited validation of model-estimated land cover, using stops with known locations, indicated the method’s potential effectiveness, but it was not rigorously evaluated. We conduct a robust simulation-based test, generating stop locations, extracting land cover, and simulating bird communities across 210 BBS routes in the upper Midwest. We compare 3 models: a “known” model with true land cover, a “naive” model assuming consistent 800-m stop spacing, and a “full” model using informative priors to estimate land cover. Species parameter estimates and predicted prevalence patterns across gradients in land cover from the full model approached those of the known model and were substantially closer to the true values used in simulations relative to those from the naive model. Naive model parameters were more biased relative to the other models, and credible intervals of predicted species prevalence rarely included the true simulated values. The full model also produced land cover covariate estimates closer to true simulation values relative to the mean informative priors. Our results show that, for the BBS, informative priors enable more accurate stop-level analyses despite location uncertainty. In contrast, naive models that ignore this uncertainty yield poor inferences. More broadly, we demonstrate empirically the utility of informative priors to account for covariate uncertainty in ecological models.
Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconson↗