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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

USGS2000

Water resources data Texas, water year 1999, volume 2. Trinity River basin

Water-resources data for the 1999 water year for Texas are presented in six volumes, and consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and canals; stage, contents, and water-quality of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality of ground-water wells. Volume 2 contains records for water discharge at 47 gaging stations; stage only at 2 gaging stations; stage and contents at 18 lakes and reservoirs; water quality at 35 gaging stations; and data for 3 partial-record stations comprised of 2 flood-hydrograph and 1 crest-stage stations. Also included are lists of discontinued surface-water discharge or stage-only stations and discontinued surface-water-quality stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data-collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in Texas. Records for a few pertinent stations in the bordering States also are included.

Texas↗

USGS2000

Water resources data Texas, water year 1999, volume 3. San Jacinto River basin, Brazos River basin, San Bernard River basin, and intervening coastal basins

Water-resources data for the 1999 water year for Texas are presented in six volumes, and consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and canals; stage, contents, and water quality of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality of ground-water wells. Volume 3 contains records for water discharge at 78 gaging stations; stage only at 7 gaging stations; stage and contents at 28 lakes and reservoirs; water quality at 27 gaging stations; and data for 48 partial-record stations comprised of 19 flood-hydrograph, 8 low-flow, and 17 crest-stage, and 4 miscellaneous stations. Also included are lists of discontinued surface-water discharge or stage-only stations and discontinued surface-water-quality stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data-collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in Texas. Records for a few pertinent stations in the bordering States also are included.

Texas↗

USGS2000

Water resources data Texas, water year 1999, volume 5. Guadalupe River basin, Nueces River basin, Rio Grande basin, and intervening coastal basins

Water-resources data for the 1999 water year for Texas are presented in six volumes, and consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams and canals; stage, contents, and water-quality of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality of ground-water wells. Volume 5 contains records for water discharge at 76 gaging stations; stage only at 1 gaging stations; stage and contents at 4 lakes and reservoirs; water quality at 38 gaging stations; and data for 30 partial-record stations comprised of 3 flood-hydrograph, 14 low-flow, and 8 crest-stage, and 5 miscellaneous stations. Also included are lists of discontinued surface-water discharge or stage-only stations and discontinued surface-water-quality stations. Additional water data were collected at various sites, not part of the systematic data-collection program, and are published as miscellaneous measurements. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating Federal, State, and local agencies in Texas. Records for a few pertinent stations in the bordering States also are included.

Texas↗

USGS2004

Simulated effects of ground-water augmentation on the hydrology of Round and Halfmoon Lakes in northwestern Hillsborough County, Florida

Pumpage from the Upper Floridan aquifer in northwest Hillsborough County near Tampa, Florida, has induced downward leakage from the overlying surficial aquifer and lowered the water table in many areas. Leakage is highest where the confining layer separating the aquifers is breached, which is common beneath many of the lakes in the study area. Leakage of water to the Upper Floridan aquifer has lowered the water level in many lakes and drained many wetlands. Ground water from the Upper Floridan aquifer has been added (augmented) to some lakes in an effort to maintain lake levels, but the resulting lake-water chemistry and lake leakage patterns are substantially different from those of natural lakes. Changes in lake-water chemistry can cause changes in lake flora, fauna, and lake sediment composition, and large volumes of lake leakage are suspected to enhance the formation of sinkholes near the shoreline of augmented lakes. The leakage rate of lake water through the surficial aquifer to the Upper Floridan aquifer was estimated in this study using ground-water-flow models developed for an augmented lake (Round Lake) and non-augmented lake (Halfmoon Lake). Flow models developed with MODFLOW were calibrated through nonlinear regression with UCODE to measured water levels and monthly net ground-water-flow rates from the lakes estimated from lake-water budgets. Monthly estimates of ground-water recharge were computed using an unsaturated flow model (LEACHM) that simulated daily changes in storage of water in the soil profile, thus estimating recharge as drainage to the water table. Aquifer properties in the Round Lake model were estimated through transient-state simulations using two sets of monthly recharge rates computed during July 1996 to February 1999, which spanned both average conditions (July 1996 through October 1997), and an El Niño event (November 1997 through September 1998) when the recharge rate doubled. Aquifer properties in the Halfmoon Lake model were estimated through steady-state simulations of average conditions in July 1996. Simulated hydrographs computed by the Round and Halfmoon Lake models closely matched measured water-level fluctuations, except during El Niño, when the Halfmoon Lake model was unable to accurately reproduce water levels. Possibly, potential recharge during El Niño was diverted through ground-water-flow outlets that were not represented in the Halfmoon Lake model, or a large part of the rainfall was diverted into runoff before it could become recharge. Solute transport simulations with MT3D indicate that leakage of lake water extended 250 to 400 feet into the surficial aquifer around Round Lake, and from 75 to 150 feet around Halfmoon Lake before flowing to the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. These results are in agreement with concentrations of stable isotopes of oxygen-18 (d18O) and deuterium (dD) in the surficial aquifer. Schedules of monthly augmentation rates to maintain constant stages in Round and Halfmoon Lakes were computed using an equation that accounted for changes in the Upper Floridan aquifer head and the deviation from the mean recharge rate. Resulting lake stages were nearly constant during the first half of the study, but increased above target lake stages during El Niño; modifying the computation of augmentation rates to account for the higher recharge rate during El Niño resulted in lake stages that were closer to the target lake stage. Substantially more lake leakage flows to the Upper Floridan aquifer from Round Lake than from Halfmoon Lake, because the estimated vertical hydraulic conductivities of lake and confining layer sediments and breaches in the confining layer beneath Round Lake are much greater. Augmentation rates required to maintain the low guidance stages in Round Lake (53 feet) and Halfmoon Lake (42 feet) under average Upper Floridan aquifer heads are estimated as 33,850 cubic feet per day and 1,330 to 10,000 cubic feet per day, respectively. These rates equate to 26 inches per month of water applied to the entire surface of Round Lake and 0.34 to 2.5 inches per month of water applied to Halfmoon Lake.

Florida↗

USGS1959

Hydrologic budget of the Beaverdam Creek basin, Maryland

A hydrologic budget is a statement accounting for the water gains and losses for selected periods in an area. Weekly measurements of precipitation streamflow, surface-water storage, ground-water stage, and soil resistivity were made during a 2year period, April 1, 1950, to March 28, 1952, in the Beaverdam Creek basin, Wicomico County, Md. The hydrologic measurements are summarized in two budgets, a total budget and a ground-water budget, and in supporting tables and graphs. The results of the investigation have some potentially significant applications because they describe a method for determining the annual replenishment of the water supply of a basin and the ways of water disposal under natural conditions. The information helps to determine the 'safe' yield of water in diversion from natural to artificial discharge. The drainage basin of Beaverdam Creek was selected because it appeared to have fewer hydrologic variables than are generally found. However, the methods may prove applicable in many places under a variety of conditions. The measurements are expressed in inches of water over the area of the basin. The equation of the hydrologic cycle is the budget balance: P= R+E+ASW+ delta SW + delta SM + delta GW where P is precipitation; R is runoff; ET is evapotranspiration; delta SW is change in surface-water storage; delta SM is change in soil moisture; and delta GW is change in ground-water storage. In this report 'change' is the final quantity minus the initial quantity and thus is synonymous with 'increase.' Further, ,delta GW= delta H .x Yg, in which delta H is the change in ground-water stage and Yg is the gravity yield, or the specific yield of the sediments as measured during the short periods of declining ground-water levels characteristic of the area. The complex sum of the revised equation P ? R - delta SW ? ET - delta SM, which is equal to delta H. x Yg, has been named the 'infiltration residual'; it is equivalent to ground-water recharge. Two unmeasured, but not entirely unknown, quantities, evapotranspiration, (ET) and gravity yield, (Yg), are included in the equation. They are derived statistically by a method of convergent approximations, one of the contributions of this investigation. On the basis of laboratory analysis, well-field tests, and general information on rates of drainage from saturated sediments, a gravity yield of 14 percent was assumed as a first approximation. The equation was then solved, by weeks, for evapotranspiration, ET. The evapotranspiration losses were plotted against the calendar week. Using the time of year as a control, a smooth curve was fitted to the evapotranspiration data, and modified values of ET were read from the curve. These were used to compute weekly values of the infiltration residual which were plotted against ground-water stage. The slope of the line of best fit gave a closer approximation of gravity yield, Yg. The process was repeated. The approximations converged, so that a fourth and final approximation resulted in a close grouping of all the points along a line whose slope indicated a Yg of 11.0 percent, and a slightly asymmetric bell-shaped curve of total evapotranspiration by weeks was obtained that is considered representative of this area. Check calculations of gravity yield were made during periods of low evapotranspiration and high infiltration, which substantiate the computed average of 11.0 percent. Refinements in the method of deriving the ground-water budget were introduced to supplement the techniques developed by Meinzer and Stearns in the study of the Pomperaug River basin in Connecticut in 1913 and 1916. The hydrologic equation for the ground-water cycle may be written Gr=D + delta H. x Yg + ETg, in which Gr is ground-water recharge (infiltration); D is ground-water drainage; delta H is the change in mean ground-water stage (final stage minus initial stage); Yg is gravity yield (taken as 11.0 percent in computations here); an

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2021

Habitat suitability index model improvements

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models were developed for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan to evaluate the potential effects of coastal restoration and protection projects on habitat for key coastal fish, shellfish, and wildlife species. These species included: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. Most of these species were included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the HSI models from that effort were refined and improved following the recommendations described in the technical memorandum: 2023 Coastal Master Plan Habitat Suitability Index Model Improvement Recommendations (Sable et al., 2019). In addition to model improvements, HSI models were created for seaside sparrow and bald eagle, both of which are new species for the master plan analyses. For the HSI models that are primarily literature-based, literature reviews were conducted for recent studies that could be used to improve the suitability index (SI) relationships that compose the models. As a result of this review, modifications were made to the salinity-related SIs of the oyster model including: expanding the time period used for salinity effects to spawning; adjusting the range of suitable annual average salinity to be more representative of Louisiana populations; and making oyster’s minimum salinity tolerance temperature dependent. In addition, a new SI was incorporated in the oyster HSI model that accounts for the effects of sediment deposition on oysters. The crayfish HSI model was improved by adjusting the time periods used for the SIs that describe the hydrology required for the crayfish life cycle, and the soil characteristics SI that was part of the 2017 crayfish model was removed because soil conditions do not appear to be limiting for crayfish burrow construction in coastal Louisiana. The other literature-based HSI models from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, i.e., American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, and brown pelican, were unchanged, with the exception of a small adjustment made to the suitability of forested wetlands for gadwall. Lastly, a literature-based HSI model was created for seaside sparrow that consists of SIs related to vegetated habitat type, marsh vegetation coverage, and marsh elevation. Statistical-based HSI models were developed for brown shrimp (both small and large juvenile stages), white shrimp (small and large juvenile stages), blue crab (juvenile stage), gulf menhaden (juvenile and adult stages), spotted seatrout (juvenile and adult stages), largemouth bass, and bald eagle. The bald eagle HSI model was developed from a bald eagle nest probability of occurrence model that related nest occurrence from survey data with land cover type. The resulting model showed that combinations of forested wetlands, flotant marsh, and open water habitats were most suitable for nesting bald eagles. The 2023 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models were developed using new approaches for the formulation of the water quality and structural habitat SIs that compose the models. For the 2017 models, the water quality SI was derived using only generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to estimate the relationship between salinity, water temperature, and species’ catch. For the 2023 models, however, multiple GLMMs and generalized additive models (GAMMs) were created for each species or life stage. These alternative models were compared and a single model that performed well statistically and was ecologically reasonable was selected for the species’ water quality SI. The structural habitat SI was developed using a meta-analysis of published literature to estimate the relative importance of various estuarine habitats to the fish and shellfish species. The results of this analysis were then used to modify the 2017 structural habitat SI relationship to account for the added habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important habitats for juvenile fish and shellfish. Similar to the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab models, the water quality and structural habitat SIs were then combined to create the 2023 HSI models. The 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models were integrated with the Integrated Compartment Model (and are referred to as ICM-HSIs) and tested using environmental output from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan Future Without Action scenario. The tests showed that, in general, the models produced reasonable representations of species’ habitat distribution. Furthermore, the improvements made to the oyster, crayfish, fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models generally yielded more realistic results compared to the 2017 HSI models.

Report↗

USGS2015

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2018

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life‐history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow‐dominated to rain‐dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post‐metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species’ life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage‐based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed‐specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84–1.13), but predict that λ s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Coldwater periods in warmwater streams: Microhabitat shifts from autumn to winter by Smallmouth Bass

Seasonal and life stage variation in microhabitat use is an important driver of fish survival and bioenergetics, but knowledge of microhabitat selection during colder periods is generally lacking in warmwater streams. Our objective was to examine changes in microhabitat selection by age‐0 (TL ≤ 85 mm) and age‐1+ (TL > 85 mm) Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu from autumn to winter in streams of the southwest Ozark Highlands ecoregion. We examined microhabitat selection (depth, velocity, substrate, cover, and temperature) during autumn 2017 (Spavinaw Creek) and winter 2018 (Spavinaw and Spring creeks). During autumn and winter, age‐0 fish selected intermediate depths of approximately 1 m, whereas age‐1+ fish selected the deepest available habitat. Water depth selection was similar across seasons for both life stages. Both age‐0 and age‐1+ bass selected areas of zero velocity, increasing substrate size, instream cover, and warmwater patches in autumn. Velocity selection differed between autumn and winter with both life stages showing stronger selection of low velocity patches (0.1–0.3 m/s) during winter. Both life stages shifted to having no substrate selection during winter. Age‐1+ bass were more likely than age‐0 bass to use cover during autumn, but this relationship shifted in winter to the age‐0 cohort increasing their selection of cover and the age‐1+ cohort decreasing their selection. Both age‐0 and age‐1+ bass selected relatively warmer habitats during autumn, but not winter. Collectively, our results highlight both seasonal and life stage variation in Smallmouth Bass microhabitat selection. As our understanding of habitat selection across seasons develops, the management of Smallmouth Bass will undoubtedly improve. Changing environmental conditions over time may influence available habitat as well as the timing of seasonal shifts across a range of spatial and temporal scales, including microhabitat patches.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

The role of floodplain restoration in mitigating flood risk, Lower Missouri River, USA

Recent extreme floods on the Lower Missouri River have reinvigorated public policy debate about the potential role of floodplain restoration in decreasing costs of floods and possibly increasing other ecosystem service benefits. The first step to addressing the benefits of floodplain restoration is to understand the interactions of flow, floodplain morphology, and land cover that together determine the biophysical capacity of the floodplain. In this article we address interactions between ecological restoration of floodplains and flood-risk reduction at 3 scales. At the scale of the Lower Missouri River corridor (1300 km) floodplain elevation datasets and flow models provide first-order calculations of the potential for Missouri River floodplains to store floods of varying magnitude and duration. At this same scale assessment of floodplain sand deposition from the 2011 Missouri River flood indicates the magnitude of flood damage that could potentially be limited by floodplain restoration. At the segment scale (85 km), 1-dimensional hydraulic modeling predicts substantial stage reductions with increasing area of floodplain restoration; mean stage reductions range from 0.12 to 0.66 m. This analysis also indicates that channel widening may contribute substantially to stage reductions as part of a comprehensive strategy to restore floodplain and channel habitats. Unsteady 1-dimensional flow modeling of restoration scenarios at this scale indicates that attenuation of peak discharges of an observed hydrograph from May 2007, of similar magnitude to a 10 % annual exceedance probability flood, would be minimal, ranging from 0.04 % (with 16 % floodplain restoration) to 0.13 % (with 100 % restoration). At the reach scale (15–20 km) 2-dimensional hydraulic models of alternative levee setbacks and floodplain roughness indicate complex processes and patterns of flooding including substantial variation in stage reductions across floodplains depending on topographic complexity and hydraulic roughness. Detailed flow patterns captured in the 2-dimensional model indicate that most floodplain storage occurs on the rising limb of the flood as water flows into floodplain bottoms from downstream; at a later time during the rising limb this pattern is reversed and the entire bottom conveys discharge down the valley. These results indicate that flood-risk reduction by attenuation is likely to be small on a large river like the Missouri and design strategies to optimize attenuation and ecological restoration should focus on frequent floods (20–50 % annual exceedance probability). Local stage reductions are a more certain benefit of floodplain restoration but local effects are highly dependent on magnitude of flood discharge and how floodplain vegetation communities contribute to hydraulic roughness. The most certain flood risk reduction benefit of floodplain restoration is avoidance of flood damages to crops and infrastructure.

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South↗

USGS1980

Stable isotope and fluid inclusion studies of carbonate deposits from the Tolfa Mountains mining district (Latium, central Italy)

Carbon and oxygen isotope analyses were made of representative samples of calcite and quartz from the carbonate deposits in the Tolfa Mountains mining district. Measurements were also made of hydrogen isotope compositions, filling temperatures and salinities of fluid inclusions in these minerals. There are three stages of mineralization at Tolfa. In stage I, characterized by calc-silicate hornfels, the carbonates have relatively high ?? 18O values of 14.5 to 21.6 suggesting a rather low water/rock ratio. ??13C values of -0.3 to 2.1 indicate that appreciable decarbonation or introduction of deep-seated carbon did not occur. Stage II is marked by phanerocrystalline carbonates; ?? 18O values of 13.1 to 20.0 and ??13C values of 0.7 to 5.0 identify them as hydrothermal veins rather than marbles. ?? D values of -56 to -50 for inclusion fluids suggest a possible magmatic component to the hydrothermal fluid. Filling temperatures of coarse-grained samples of Calcite II are 309?? to 362?? C with a salinity range of 5.3 to 7.1 weight percent NaCl. Calculated ??18O values of 11-12 for these fluids are again indicative of low water/rock ratios. The sparry calcites of stage III have ??18O and ??13C values of 8.1 to 12.9 and -1.7 to 3.2, respectively. ?? D values of inclusion fluids are -40 to -33, clearly heavier than in earlier stages and similar to values of modern local ground waters. A salinity measurement of <0.1 weight percent NaCl in a sample of Calcite III is compatible with a relatively unaltered ground water origin for this fluid. Precipitation of the sparry calcite took place at much lower temperatures, around 160?? C. For quartz, ??18O values of 9.3 to 12.4 and ?? D values for inclusions of -53 to -28 are consistent with its late occurrence and paragenetic link with associated carbonates. ?? 1980 Springer-Verlag.

Mineralium Deposita↗

USGS2014

Evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults

We investigate the evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults composed of solid rock blocks. This evolution is analyzed through shear experiments along five rock types, and the experiments were conducted in a rotary apparatus at slip velocities of 0.002–0.97 m/s, slip distances from a few millimeters to tens of meters, and normal stress of 0.25–6.9 MPa. The wear and friction measurements and fault surface observations revealed three evolution phases: A) An initial stage (slip distances <50 mm) of wear by failure of isolated asperities associated with roughening of the fault surface; B) a running-in stage of slip distances of 1–3 m with intense wear-rate, failure of many asperities, and simultaneous reduction of the friction coefficient and wear-rate; and C) a steady-state stage that initiates when the fault surface is covered by a gouge layer, and during which both wear-rate and friction coefficient maintain quasi-constant, low levels. While these evolution stages are clearly recognizable for experimental faults made from bare rock blocks, our analysis suggests that natural faults “bypass” the first two stages and slip at gouge-controlled steady-state conditions.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2013

Aggregation of carbon dioxide sequestration storage assessment units

The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting a national assessment of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources, mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Pre-emission capture and storage of CO 2 in subsurface saline formations is one potential method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the negative impact of global climate change. Like many large-scale resource assessments, the area under investigation is split into smaller, more manageable storage assessment units (SAUs), which must be aggregated with correctly propagated uncertainty to the basin, regional, and national scales. The aggregation methodology requires two types of data: marginal probability distributions of storage resource for each SAU, and a correlation matrix obtained by expert elicitation describing interdependencies between pairs of SAUs. Dependencies arise because geologic analogs, assessment methods, and assessors often overlap. The correlation matrix is used to induce rank correlation, using a Cholesky decomposition, among the empirical marginal distributions representing individually assessed SAUs. This manuscript presents a probabilistic aggregation method tailored to the correlations and dependencies inherent to a CO 2 storage assessment. Aggregation results must be presented at the basin, regional, and national scales. A single stage approach, in which one large correlation matrix is defined and subsets are used for different scales, is compared to a multiple stage approach, in which new correlation matrices are created to aggregate intermediate results. Although the single-stage approach requires determination of significantly more correlation coefficients, it captures geologic dependencies among similar units in different basins and it is less sensitive to fluctuations in low correlation coefficients than the multiple stage approach. Thus, subsets of one single-stage correlation matrix are used to aggregate to basin, regional, and national scales.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessm↗

USGS2025

Variation in soil organic carbon across a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove poleward expansion

The critical carbon sink provided by coastal wetlands, known as blue carbon, can be affected by multiple aspects of climate change. One important example is warming-induced mangrove poleward expansion, which is shifting dominant plant cover across tropical–temperate transitional zones and altering ecosystem structure and function. We examined how mangrove expansion affects soil organic carbon (SOC) quantity and source, using measurements of SOC density and isotopic signatures (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) at 15 sites across Florida’s west coast (USA). The sampled sites represent examples of three expansion stages: a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove expansion, spanning mature mangroves in the south, former ecotones at mid latitudes, and current ecotones in the north. Our analyses of soil core data indicate that mangrove expansion stage is a significant predictor of SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N, but not C:N ratio. Current ecotones exhibited significantly lower SOC density but higher δ 13 C, suggesting a greater contribution of preexisting C 4 salt marshes, while no difference was found between former ecotones and mature mangroves. SOC density, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N were found to vary with mangrove aboveground biomass, stage, and sedimentary setting along the latitudinal gradient. For all three mangrove expansion stages, SOC density decreased with depth, but δ 13 C showed no vertical trend, suggesting that mangroves contributed organic carbon to the entire 20-cm soil profile. The observed regional trend of SOC across mangrove expansion stages highlights the ecological impacts of warming-driven vegetation shifts in coastal wetlands, though further evidence is needed to determine the primary drivers and mechanisms, while also considering local and regional environmental factors.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Greater than the sum of its parts: Computationally flexible Bayesian hierarchical modeling

We propose a multistage method for making inference at all levels of a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using natural data partitions to increase efficiency by allowing computations to take place in parallel form using software that is most appropriate for each data partition. The full hierarchical model is then approximated by the product of independent normal distributions for the data component of the model. In the second stage, the Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is found by maximizing the approximated posterior density with respect to the parameters. If the parameters of the model can be represented as normally distributed random effects, then the second-stage optimization is equivalent to fitting a multivariate normal linear mixed model. We consider a third stage that updates the estimates of distinct parameters for each data partition based on the results of the second stage. The method is demonstrated with two ecological data sets and models, a generalized linear mixed effects model (GLMM) and an integrated population model (IPM). The multistage results were compared to estimates from models fit in single stages to the entire data set. In both cases, multistage results were very similar to a full MCMC analysis. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

USGS1987

Modes of development of slope canyons and their relation to channel and levee features on the Ebro sediment apron, off-shore northeastern Spain

Six submarine slope canyons in an area of the northwestern Mediterranean, offshore from the Ebro River and Delta, were surveyed with bathymetric swathmapping (SeaBeam) and mid-range side-looking sonar (SeaMARC I). All of the canyons have slightly winding paths with concave-upwards gradients that are relatively steep shallower than 1,200 m. Two major types of canyons are identified on the basis of their morphologic character at the base of the slope; Type-I canyons lead to an unchannelled base-of-slope deposit and Type-II canyons are continuous with channel-levee systems that cross the rise. Four Type-I canyons were surveyed in the area. Two of these are broad, U-shaped, steep (average gradients of 1:14), do not indent the shelf, and terminate downslope at debris-flow deposits. These two canyons, the most northern in the area, have rounded heads with extensive gullies separated by knife-edge ridges. Relief of the canyon walls is about equal on both sides of the canyons, although the right-hand walls (looking downslope) are generally steeper. The other two Type-I canyons in the area are similar in that they do not indent the shelf, but they are much smaller and shallower and coalesce before terminating in the base-of-slope region. The two Type-II canyons that feed leveed-channels are U-shaped with flatter floors, longer profiles and gentler gradients than Type-I canyons. They are closer to the Valencia Valley and have relatively small cross-sectional areas. We propose a four-stage evolutionary sequence to explain the development of the canyons observed in this section on the prograding Ebro margin. During the initial stage, slumping and erosion on the slope creates a network of small gullies. During the next stage, headward growth of one (or more) gully leads to a major indentation of the shelf. This is the critical factor for developing a channel that will incise the slope and provide a major conduit for moving sediment to the basin. Stage 3 is characterized by the development of a continuous channel accompanied by levee growth across the lobe. In the final stage, the channel-levee system becomes inactive either through destruction by mass wasting, infilling of the channel, or loss of the major sediment source. ?? 1987.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2021

Geology of the Hawaiian Islands

Long known as the island chain farthest from any continental landmass, the Hawaiian Islands are the subaerial expression of volcanism above the relatively fixed Hawaiian hot spot as the Pacific plate drifts northwest above it. Each island is built by one or several overlapping shield volcanoes, some of the most voluminous on Earth. Plate translation creates the well-known age-progressive sequence of shield volcanoes from northwest to southeast. Total volume of magma produced along the Hawaiian chain has been irregular but generally increasing for the past 50 million years, a trend that has peaked in the last 3 million years. Hawaiian volcanoes grow through stages that have geologic expression and geochemical differences that reflect position relative to the underlying hot spot. Of these stages, the shield stage is the most productive when an estimated 80–95% of a volcano's ultimate volume is emplaced. The shield stage endures for about 1 million years. The burden of shield volcanoes depresses the ocean crust near the hot spot, creating the Hawaiian Moat. Greatest rate of subsidence today occurs at the Island of Hawai‘i, 2–3 mm per year along its coast. Flexural rebound occurs as volcanoes move away from the hot spot; the Island of O‘ahu shows the greatest uplift. Slow subsidence resumes downstream from the flexure, leading ultimately to submergence of each island in the chain. Large landslides, albeit infrequent, can occur at any stage of island evolution. Ground water is the principal source of potable and agricultural water on all islands; its distribution both reflects and influences island geology.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Dynamic deformation of Seguam Island, Alaska, 1992--2008, from multi-interferogram InSAR processing

We generated a time-series of ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images to study ground surface deformation at Seguam Island from 1992 to 2008. We used the small baseline subset (SBAS) technique to reduce artifacts associated with baseline uncertainties and atmospheric delay anomalies, and processed images from two adjacent tracks to validate our results. Seguam Island comprises the remnants of two late Quaternary calderas, one in the western caldera of the island and one in the eastern part of the island. The western caldera subsided at a constant rate of ~ 1.6 cm/yr throughout the study period, while the eastern caldera experienced alternating periods of subsidence and uplift: ~ 5 cm/year uplift during January 1993–October 1993 (stage 1), ~ 1.6 cm/year subsidence during October 1993–November 1998 (stage 2), ~ 2.0 cm/year uplift during November 1998–September 2000 (stage 3), ~ 1.4 cm/year subsidence during September 2000–November 2005 (stage 4), and ~ 0.8 cm/year uplift during November 2005– July 2007 (stage 5). Source modeling indicates a deflationary source less than 2 km below sea level (BSL) beneath the western caldera and two sources beneath the eastern caldera: an inflationary source 2.5–6.0 km BSL and a deflationary source less than 2 km BSL. We suggest that uplift of the eastern caldera is driven by episodic intrusions of basaltic magma into a poroelastic reservoir 2.5–6.0 km BSL beneath the caldera. Cooling and degassing of the reservoir between intrusions results in steady subsidence of the overlying surface. Although we found no evidence of magma intrusion beneath the western caldera during the study period, it is the site (Pyre Peak) of all historical eruptions on the island and therefore cooling and degassing of intrusions presumably contributes to subsidence there as well. Another likely subsidence mechanism in the western caldera is thermoelastic contraction of lava flows emplaced near Pyre Peak during several historical eruptions, most recently in 1977 and 1992–93.

Alaska↗