Estimation of the sensitivity of CSEM coupling to coil movement and resistivity changes of simple models
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Open-File Report↗
SEARCH · USGS Science
Results for “Modeling Report”
Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
A graphical kernel system (GKS) version of computer program MODPATH-PLOT for displaying path lines generated from the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional ground-water flow model
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Open-File Report↗
A computer program for calculating subregional water budgets using results from the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Three-Dimensional Finite- Difference Ground-Water Flow Model
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Open-File Report↗
Documentation of a computer program to estimate the head in a well of finite radius using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite difference ground-water flow model
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Open-File Report↗
Optimization of ground-water withdrawal in the lower Fox River communities, Wisconsin
Pumping from closely spaced wells in the Central Brown County area and the Fox Cities area near the north shore of Lake Winnebago has resulted in the formation of deep cones of depression in the vicinity of the two pumping centers. Water-level measurements indicate there has been a steady decline in water levels in the vicinity of these two pumping centers for the past 50 years. This report describes the use of ground-water optimization modeling to efficiently allocate the ground-water resources in the Lower Fox River Valley. A 3-dimensional ground-water flow model was used along with optimization techniques to determine the optimal withdrawal rates for a variety of management alternatives. The simulations were conducted separately for the Central Brown County area and the Fox Cities area. For all simulations, the objective of the optimization was to maximize total ground-water withdrawals. The results indicate that ground water can supply nearly all of the projected 2030 demand for Central Brown County municipalities if all of the wells are managed (including the city of Green Bay), 8 new wells are installed, and the water-levels are allowed to decline to 100 ft below the bottom of the confining unit. Ground water can supply nearly all of the projected 2030 demand for the Fox Cities if the municipalities in Central Brown County convert to surface water; if Central Brown County municipalities follow the optimized strategy described above, there will be a considerable shortfall of available ground water for the Fox Cities communities. Relaxing the water-level constraint in a few wells, however, would likely result in increased availability of water. In all cases examined, optimization alternatives result in a rebound of the steady-state water levels due to projected 2030 withdrawal rates to levels at or near the bottom of the confining unit, resulting in increased well capacity. Because the simulations are steady-state, if all of the conditions of the model remain the same these withdrawal rates would be sustainable in perpetuity.
Wisconsin↗
Surface-source downhole seismic analysis in R
This report discusses a method for interpreting a layered slowness or velocity model from surface-source downhole seismic data originally presented by Boore (2003). I have implemented this method in the statistical computing language R (R Development Core Team, 2007), so that it is freely and easily available to researchers and practitioners that may find it useful. I originally applied an early version of these routines to seismic cone penetration test data (SCPT) to analyze the horizontal variability of shear-wave velocity within the sediments in the San Francisco Bay area (Thompson et al., 2006). A more recent version of these codes was used to analyze the influence of interface-selection and model assumptions on velocity/slowness estimates and the resulting differences in site amplification (Boore and Thompson, 2007). The R environment has many benefits for scientific and statistical computation; I have chosen R to disseminate these routines because it is versatile enough to program specialized routines, is highly interactive which aids in the analysis of data, and is freely and conveniently available to install on a wide variety of computer platforms. These scripts are useful for the interpretation of layered velocity models from surface-source downhole seismic data such as deep boreholes and SCPT data. The inputs are the travel-time data and the offset of the source at the surface. The travel-time arrivals for the P- and S-waves must already be picked from the original data. An option in the inversion is to include estimates of the standard deviation of the travel-time picks for a weighted inversion of the velocity profile. The standard deviation of each travel-time pick is defined relative to the standard deviation of the best pick in a profile and is based on the accuracy with which the travel-time measurement could be determined from the seismogram. The analysis of the travel-time data consists of two parts: the identification of layer-interfaces, and the inversion for the velocity of each layer. The analyst usually picks layer-interfaces by visual inspection of the travel-time data. I have also developed an algorithm that automatically finds boundaries which can save a significant amount of the time when analyzing a large number of sites. The results of the automatic routines should be reviewed to check that they are reasonable. The interactivity of these scripts allows the user to add and to remove layers quickly, thus allowing rapid feedback on how the residuals are affected by each additional parameter in the inversion. In addition, the script allows many models to be compared at the same time.
Open-File Report↗
Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics
Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
SWB Version 2.0—A soil-water-balance code for estimating net infiltration and other water-budget components
The U.S. Geological Survey’s Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) code was developed as a tool to estimate distribution and timing of net infiltration out of the root zone by means of an approach that uses readily available data and minimizes user effort required to begin a SWB application. SWB calculates other components of the water balance, including soil moisture, reference and actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, snowmelt, canopy interception, and crop-water demand. SWB is based on a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance approach, with components of the soil-water balance calculated at a daily time step. Net-infiltration calculations are computed by means of a rectangular grid of computational elements, which allows the calculated infiltration rates to be imported into grid-based regional groundwater-flow models. SWB makes use of gridded datasets, including datasets describing hydrologic soil groups, moisture-retaining capacity, flow direction, and land use. Climate data may be supplied in gridded or tabular form. The SWB 2.0 code described in this report extends capabilities of the original SWB version 1.0 model by adding new options for representing physical processes and additional data input and output capabilities. New methods included in SWB 2.0 allow for direct gridded input of externally calculated water-budget components (fog, septic, and storm-sewer leakage), simulation of canopy interception by several alternative processes, and a crop-water demand method for estimating irrigation amounts. New input and output capabilities allow for grids with differing spatial extents and projections to be combined without requiring the user to resample and resize the grids before use.
Techniques and Methods↗
Pre-eruptive characteristics of “suspect” silicic magmas in Carlin-type Au-forming systems
World-class Carlin-type Au deposits hosted in sedimentary rock were formed when profuse Eocene silicic magmatism swept across northern Nevada in response to arc migration. Carlin-type Au deposits formed along with porphyry/skarn Cu-Mo-W-Au deposits, epithermal Ag-Au deposits, and distal disseminated Ag-Au deposits. But unlike these other Au-bearing deposits that have clear associations with igneous intrusions, Carlin-type ore deposits appear to have formed distant from concealed plutons, and their origin remains controversial. Despite decades of abundant geophysical, geochronological, and geochemical studies suggesting the involvement of magmas, concrete evidence for magmatic involvement is still lacking. Consequently, the involvement of contemporaneous igneous systems remains inferred based on age, proximity, and variable isotopic, geochemical, and geophysical clues. A recent synthesis of deposit models postulates that Carlin-type Au deposits are intrusion-related, but that the causative magmas reside deeper (∼6–12 km) than in typical porphyry and peripheral systems (∼3–5 km), meaning that Carlin-type deposits are perhaps more distal expressions of igneous intrusions. We investigate a collection of “suspect” magmatic systems over a ∼7 m.y. timespan (∼41–34 Ma) that are contemporaneous with and near known Carlin-type ore deposits. We report results of a multifaceted array of in situ geochemical analyses (FTIR, EMP, SHRIMP-RG, LA-ICP-MS) of quartz-hosted melt inclusions, biotite, and quartz to better characterize the pre-eruptive characteristics of these magmas. We also report results of thermobarometry and thermodynamic phase equilibria modeling to help place constraints on magmatic reservoir depths and processes. Rather than a single “flavor” of silicic magma, we observe a surprisingly broad compositional spectrum of rhyolites, with one end of the spectrum exhibiting more arc-like (I-type) characteristics and the other end displaying more post-subduction, thick-crust extensional (A-type) characteristics. This broad compositional spectrum suggests a more complex picture of silicic crustal magmatism operating over a narrow span of time during slab rollback. Despite this spectrum, magmatic systems in this study are consistently ferroan and generally peraluminous, which we interpret as an expression of the relatively elevated geotherm at the time and incorporation of variable amounts of highly peraluminous metasedimentary crustal components. The silicic magma spectrum encompasses a range of mineralization associations, including subduction-related Cu-Mo-W-Au-Ag and post-subduction, thick-crust extensional rare-metal Mo-Sn-W-F-Be-Ag-Au, consistent with the prolific and diverse array of ore deposits that formed during this time. Carlin-type Au deposition appears to be associated with nearly the entire magmatic spectrum. This apparent indifference to silicic magma “flavor” would seem to imply that if magmas are involved in Carlin-type Au deposit genesis, they perhaps do not need to be compositionally specialized and/or possibly are only relevant as heat sources driving circulation to remobilize and redistribute metals.
Nevada↗
Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin
Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).
Wisconsin↗
Particle-tracking investigation of the retention of sucker larvae emerging from spawning grounds in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon
This study had two objectives: (1) to use the results of an individual-based particle-tracking model of larval sucker dispersal through the Williamson River delta and Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, to interpret field data collected throughout Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, and (2) to use the model to investigate the retention of sucker larvae in the system as a function of Williamson River flow, wind, and lake elevation. This is a follow-up study to work reported in Wood and others (2014) in which the hydrodynamic model of Upper Klamath Lake was combined with an individual-based, particle-tracking model of larval fish entering the lake from spawning areas in the Williamson River. In the previous study, the performance of the model was evaluated through comparison with field data comprising larval sucker distribution collected in 2009 by The Nature Conservancy, Oregon State University (OSU), and the U.S. Geological Survey, primarily from the (at that time) recently reconnected Williamson River Delta and along the eastern shoreline of Upper Klamath Lake, surrounding the old river mouth. The previous study demonstrated that the validation of the model with field data was moderately successful and that the model was useful for describing the broad patterns of larval dispersal from the river, at least in the areas surrounding the river channel immediately downstream of the spawning areas and along the shoreline where larvae enter the lake. In this study, field data collected by OSU throughout the main body of Upper Klamath Lake, and not just around the Williamson River Delta, were compared to model simulation results. Because the field data were collected throughout the lake, it was necessary to include in the simulations larvae spawned at eastern shoreline springs that were not included in the earlier studies. A complicating factor was that the OSU collected data throughout the main body of the lake in 2011 and 2012, after the end of several years of larval drift collection in the Williamson River by the U.S. Geological Survey. Those larval drift data provided necessary boundary-condition information for the earlier studies, but there were no measured boundary conditions for larval input into model simulations during the years of this study (2011−12). Therefore, we developed a method to estimate a time series of larval drift in the Williamson River, and of the emergence of larvae from the gravel at the eastern shoreline springs, that captured the approximate timing of the larval pulse of the Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose sucker (Chasmistes brevirostris) and the relative magnitude of the pulses by species and spawning location. The method is not able to predict larval drift on any given day, but it can reasonably predict the approximate temporal progression of the larval drift through the season, based on counts of adult suckers returning to spawn. The accuracy in the timing of the larval pulses is not better than about plus or minus 5 days. Model results and field data were consistent in the basic progression of both catch per unit effort (CPUE) and larval length through time. The model simulation results also duplicated some of the characteristics of the spatial patterns of density in the field data, notably the tendency for high larval densities closer to the eastern and western shorelines. However, the model simulations could not explain high densities in the northern part of the lake or far into Ball Bay, locations that are far from the source of larvae in the Williamson River or eastern shoreline springs (as measured along the predominant transport pathways simulated in the model). This suggests the possibility of unaccounted-for spawning areas in the northern part of the lake and also that the period during which larvae are transported passively by the currents is shorter than the 46 days simulated in the model. Similarly, the progression of larval lengths in the field data is not a simple progression from smaller to larger fish away from sources in the river and springs, as simulated by the particle-tracking model; the smallest fish were caught at different times near the Williamson River, in the northwestern part of the lake, and in the southernmost part of the lake. This again suggests that fish may be spawning at places other than the river and eastern springs, that our understanding of larval transport is incomplete, or both. The model was used to run 96 numerical “experiments” in which lake elevation, river discharge, and wind forcing were varied systematically in order to investigate the sensitivity of particle retention to each variable, and with particular emphasis on the idea of managing lake elevation to control emigration. The estimates of particle retention cannot be equated directly to retention of fish larvae, primarily because there was no mortality included in the simulations, but the relative comparison of retention and emigration around the matrix of experimental conditions provided several “big picture” results: - Variables that cannot be controlled—winds and discharge—had the largest effect on retention. For example, at the lowest river discharge (20 cubic meters per second), simulated retention was high regardless of wind or lake elevation, whereas at the highest river discharge (100 cubic meters per second), retention was low regardless of wind or lake elevation. - When river discharge and wind were held constant, a higher elevation delayed the onset of the most rapid exit of particles by 1 (from the springs) to 4 (from the river) days, but did not determine overall retention. Only under the combination of conditions consisting of low discharge (50 cubic meters per second or less) and strong wind reversals for several days was there a consistent effect of lake elevation on overall retention several weeks into the simulation, and, under those conditions, retention was at the high end of the possible range regardless of lake elevation. - Under most combinations of conditions tested, after particles had been in the system for several days, the complex interaction between wind, elevation, and river discharge resulted in particle pathways, and therefore retention, being highly variable and unpredictable, at which point controlling lake elevation could not produce a predictable result. Therefore, on the basis of the model predictions, managing lake elevation probably is not a way to reliably provide any particular level of retention.
Oregon↗
Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington
Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F
Scientific Investigations Report↗
Water Quality in the High Plains Aquifer, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1999-2004
This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2004 assessment of water quality in the High Plains aquifer. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings for principal and other aquifers and major river basins across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, regional, State, and national issues. Conditions in the aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as drinking-water quality, the effects of agricultural practices on water quality, source-water protection, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of ground water in areas near where they live and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the region and the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer summarized in this report are discussed in greater detail in other reports that can be accessed in Appendix 1 of http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa). This report accompanies the detailed and technical report of water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer 'Water-quality assessment of the High Plains aquifer, 1999-2004' (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/)
Circular↗
Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico
Errata **September 28, 2018: The purpose of a USGS Open-file report (OFR) is dissemination of information that must be released immediately to fill a public need or information that is not sufficiently refined to warrant publication in one of the other USGS series. As part of that refinement process, an error was discovered in one of the input data sets of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) that this OFR was based upon. The error involved the assignment of storage properties to “phantom cells.” Phantom cells are required for most variants of MODFLOW that use a structured finite-difference grid when individual stratigraphic layers are represented as separate layers. Using phantom cells is a common practice that allows separate model layers to be maintained without having to combine stratigraphic layers into equivalent model layers or to use an unstructured grid. Typically, phantom cell horizontal hydraulic conductivities and storage properties are set to a small number and vertical hydraulic conductivities are set to a number large enough to allow vertical flow between the vertically adjacent layers. In the RGTIHM, the specific storage properties of the phantom cells for the upper (RGTIHM layers 3 and 4), middle (RGTIHM layers 5 and 6), and lower (RGTIHM layers 7 and 8) members of the Santa Fe Group were inadvertently assigned a value of 1 feet -1 . The revision of these specific storage values to a small number (1.0 x 10 -09 feet -1 ) required additional trial-and-error model calibration and a new sensitivity analysis. After calibration, the overall model fit remained similar to the fit described in the OFR, but the fit for many individual features such as project water available for diversions at the American Canal and Acequia Madre improved due to the reduction in flow coming from lower layers. Overall, there is still an average net depletion of groundwater flow, and the conclusions of the report are not changed. The revised average annual groundwater flow depletion simulated for the period 1953-2014 is -1,480 acre-feet/year for the entire model region, and -3,660 acre-feet/year for the portion of the model in the United States. The final version of the model will be the basis of the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that will supersede this OFR. An updated Model Archive of RGTIHM is available upon request to the USGS California Water Science Center. The corrected version of the model WAS the basis for the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that SUPERSEDED this Open-File Report.** Abstract Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.
New Mexico, Northern Chihuahua, Texas↗
MODFLOW-2000 ground-water model-user guide to the Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction (SUB) Package
This report documents a computer program, the Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction (SUB) Package, to simulate aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. The SUB Package simulates elastic (recoverable) compaction and expansion, and inelastic (permanent) compaction of compressible fine-grained beds (interbeds) within the aquifers. The deformation of the interbeds is caused by head or pore-pressure changes, and thus by changes in effective stress, within the interbeds. If the stress is less than the preconsolidation stress of the sediments, the deformation is elastic; if the stress is greater than the preconsolidation stress, the deformation is inelastic. The propagation of head changes within the interbeds is defined by a transient, one-dimensional (vertical) diffusion equation. This equation accounts for delayed release of water from storage or uptake of water into storage in the interbeds. Properties that control the timing of the storage changes are vertical hydraulic diffusivity and interbed thickness. The SUB Package supersedes the Interbed Storage Package (IBS1) for MODFLOW, which assumes that water is released from or taken into storage with changes in head in the aquifer within a single model time step and, therefore, can be reasonably used to simulate only thin interbeds. The SUB Package relaxes this assumption and can be used to simulate time-dependent drainage and compaction of thick interbeds and confining units. The time-dependent drainage can be turned off, in which case the SUB Package gives results identical to those from IBS1. Three sample problems illustrate the usefulness of the SUB Package. One sample problem verifies that the package works correctly. This sample problem simulates the drainage of a thick interbed in response to a step change in head in the adjacent aquifer and closely matches the analytical solution. A second sample problem illustrates the effects of seasonally varying discharge and recharge to an aquifer system with a thick interbed. A third sample problem simulates a multilayered regional ground-water basin. Model input files for the third sample problem are included in the appendix.
Open-File Report↗
Final report: Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and Western Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis) surveys and habitat availability modeling on the Santa Clara River, California, 26 March 2020
Our project aimed to conduct population surveys for Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax trailii extimus; SWFL) and Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus; YBCU) in 2018 and 2019, apply existing habitat models to illustrate and predict past, current, and future habitat suitabilities for these two species, and update and standardize classification and mapping of riparian vegetation to reflect recent conditions along the lower 50 miles of the Santa Clara River. Models developed by Hatten and Paradzick (2003), Hatten, et al. (2010), Hatten (2016), and Johnson et al. (2016) were applied to the SCR to provide California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with useful tools for management of resources for SWFL and YBCU.
California↗
Interactive tool to estimate groundwater elevations in central and eastern North Dakota
This report describes an interactive tool (NDakGWtool) in which a statistical model is developed using locally weighted regression to estimate monthly mean groundwater elevations for a specified latitude and longitude, referred to as the “user-specified location.” For each user-specified location, seven models are developed for each month from April through October. Localized, high spatial-resolution maps of estimated monthly mean groundwater surface elevations are produced from the models. The tool was evaluated for glacial drift aquifers of the 32-county study area in central and eastern North Dakota. Although groundwater elevations from 1960 to 2017 were available to develop the tool, groundwater elevations from 1995 to 2015 were used for model testing and development of the model domain. There are 413 grid cells of 0.1-degree latitude by 0.1-degree longitude size in the model domain, and the tool produces maps of estimated monthly mean groundwater surface elevations for the cell containing the user-specified location. Additionally, the NDakGWtool produces maps of estimated groundwater depth below land surface and ArcGIS files of estimated groundwater surface elevations and groundwater depth below land surface. The tool is composed of four main components: data input, statistical model, output, and user-interactive process.
North Dakota↗
Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois
Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of impervious land cover in the watershed and errors in measuring rainfall for convective storms. Overall, the results of regional calibration and verification of the rainfall-runoff model indicate the simulated rainfall-runoff relations are adequate for stormwater-management planning and design for watersheds in Du Page County.
Water-Resources Investigations Report↗