SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Holocene”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

USGS2000

Environmental history and tephrostratigraphy at Carp Lake, southwestern Columbia Basin, Washington, USA

Sediment cores from Carp Lake provide a pollen record of the last ca. 125,000 years that helps disclose vegetational and climatic conditions from the present day to the previous interglaciation (120-133 ka). The core also contained 15 tephra layers, which were characterised by electron-microprobe analysis of volcanic glass shards. Identified tephra include Mount St. Helens Ye, 3.69 ka; Mazama ash bed, 7.54 ka; Mount St. Helens layer C, 35-50 ka; an unnamed Mount St. Helens tephra, 75-150 ka; the tephra equivalent of layer E at Pringle Falls, Oregon, <218 ka; and an andesitic tephra layer similar to that at Tulelake, California, 174 ka. Ten calibrated radiocarbon ages and the ages of Mount St. Helens Ye, Mazama ash, and the unnamed Mount St. Helens tephra were used to develop an age-depth model. This model was refined by also incorporating the age of marine oxygen isotope stage (IS) boundary 4/5 (73.9 ka) and the age of IS-5e (125 ka). The justification for this age-model is based on an analysis of the pollen record and lithologic data. The pollen record is divided into 11 assemblage zones that describe alternations between periods of montane conifer forest, pine forest, and steppe. The previous interglacial period (IS-5e) supported temperate xerothermic forests of pine and oak and a northward and westward expansion of steppe and juniper woodland, compared to their present occurrence. The period from 83 to 117 ka contains intervals of pine forest and parkland alternating with pine-spruce forest, suggesting shifts from cold humid to cool temperate conditions. Between 73 and 83 ka, a forest of oak, hemlock, Douglas-fir, and fir was present that has no modem analogue. It suggests warm wet summers and cool wet winters. Cool humid conditions during the mid-Wisconsin interval supported mixed conifer forest with Douglas-fir and spruce. The glacial interval featured cold dry steppe, with an expansion of spruce in the late-glacial. Xerothermic communities prevailed in the early Holocene, when temperate steppe was widespread and the lake dried intermittently. The middle Holocene was characterised by ponderosa pine forest, and the modem vegetation was established in the last 3900 yr, when ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, fir, and oak were part of the local vegetation.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

A late quaternary record of eolian silt deposition in a maar lake, St. Michael Island, western Alaska

Recent stratigraphic studies in central Alaska have yielded the unexpected finding that there is little evidence for full-glacial (late Wisconsin) loess deposition. Because the loess record of western Alaska is poorly exposed and not well known, we analyzed a core from Zagoskin Lake, a maar lake on St. Michael Island, to determine if a full-glacial eolian record could be found in that region. Particle size and geochemical data indicate that the mineral fraction of the lake sediments is not derived from the local basalt and is probably eolian. Silt deposition took place from at least the latter part of the mid-Wisconsin interstadial period through the Holocene, based on radiocarbon dating. Based on the locations of likely loess sources, eolian silt in western Alaska was probably deflated by northeasterly winds from glaciofluvial sediments. If last-glacial winds that deposited loess were indeed from the northeast, this reconstruction is in conflict with a model-derived reconstruction of paleowinds in Alaska. Mass accumulation rates in Zagoskin Lake were higher during the Pleistocene than during the Holocene. In addition, more eolian sediment is recorded in the lake sediments than as loess on the adjacent landscape. The thinner loess record on land may be due to the sparse, herb tundra vegetation that dominated the landscape in full-glacial time. Herb tundra would have been an inefficient loess trap compared to forest or even shrub tundra due to its low roughness height. The lack of abundant, full-glacial, eolian silt deposition in the loess stratigraphic record of central Alaska may be due, therefore, to a mimimal ability of the landscape to trap loess, rather than a lack of available eolian sediment. ?? 2003 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2002

Depositional history and neotectonics in Great Salt Lake, Utah, from high-resolution seismic stratigraphy

High-resolution seismic-reflection data from Great Salt Lake show that the basinal sediment sequence is cut by numerous faults with N-S and NE-SW orientations. This faulting shows evidence of varied timing and relative offsets, but includes at least three events totaling about 12 m following the Bonneville phase of the lake (since about 13.5 ka). Several faults displace the uppermost sediments and the lake floor. Bioherm structures are present above some faults, which suggests that the faults served as conduits for sublacustrine discharge of fresh water. A shallow, fault-controlled ridge between Carrington Island and Promontory Point, underlain by a well-cemented pavement, separates the main lake into two basins. The pavement appears to be early Holocene in age and younger sediments lap onto it. Onlap-offlap relationships, reflection truncations, and morphology of the lake floor indicate a low lake, well below the present level, during the early Holocene, during which most of the basin was probably a playa. This low stand is represented by irregular reflections in seismic profiles from the deepest part of the basin. Other prominent reflectors in the profiles are correlated with lithologic changes in sediment cores related to the end of the Bonneville stage of the lake, a thick mirabilite layer in the northern basin, and the Mazama tephra. Reflections below those penetrated by sediment cores document earlier lacustrine cycles. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Utah↗

USGS1999

Trench investigation along the Merida section of the Bocono fault (central Venezuelan Andes), Venezuela

The Bocono fault is a major NE-SW-trending, dextral fault that extends for about 500 km along the backbone of the Venezuelan Andes. Several large historical earthquakes in this region have been attributed to the Bocono fault, and some of these have been recently associated with specific parts through paleoseismologic investigations. A new trench study has been performed, 60 km to the northeast of Merida in the central Venezuelan Andes, where the fault forms a releasing bend, comprising two conspicuous late Holocene fault strands that are about 1 km apart. The southern and northern strands carry about 70% and 30% (respectively) of the 7-10 mm/yr net slip rate measured in this sector, which is based on a 40 vs. 85-100 m right-lateral offset of the Late Pleistocene Los Zerpa moraines. A trench excavated on the northern strand of the fault (near Morros de los Hoyos, slightly northeast of Apartaderos) across a twin shutter ridge and related sag pond exposed two main fault zones cutting Late Pleistocene alluvial and Holocene peat deposits. Each zone forms a shutter ridge with peat deposits ponded against the uplifted block. The paleoearthquake reconstruction derived from this trench allow us to propose the occurrence of at least 6-8 earthquakes in the past 9000 yr, yielding a maximum average recurrence interval of about 1100-1500 yr. Based on the northern strands average slip rate (2.6 mm/yr), such as earthquake sequence should have accommodated about 23 m of slip since 9 ka, suggesting that the maximum slip per event ranges between 3 and 4 m. No direct evidence for the large 1812 earthquake has been found in the trench, although this earthquake may have ruptured this section of the fault. Further paleoseismic studies will investigate the possibility that this event occurred in the Bocono fault, but ruptured mainly its southern strand in this region.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2001

Formation and failure of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley associated with eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex, Alaska

The formation of lahars and a debris avalanche during Holocene eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex in south-central Alaska have led to the development of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley. Debris dams composed of lahar and debris-avalanche deposits formed at least five times in the last 8000-10,000 years and most recently during eruptions of Crater Peak vent in 1953 and 1992. Water impounded by a large debris avalanche of early Holocene (?) age may have destabilized an upstream glacier-dammed lake causing a catastrophic flood on the Chakachatna River. A large alluvial fan just downstream of the debris-avalanche deposit is strewn with boulders and blocks and is probably the deposit generated by this flood. Application of a physically based dam-break model yields estimates of peak discharge (Qp) attained during failure of the debris-avalanche dam in the range 104 < Qp < 106 m3 s-1 for plausible breach erosion rates of 10-100 m h-1. Smaller, short-lived, lahar dams that formed during historical eruptions in 1953, and 1992, impounded smaller lakes in the upper Chakachatna River valley and peak flows attained during failure of these volcanic debris dams were in the range 103 < Qp < 104 m3 s-1 for plausible breach erosion rates. Volcanic debris dams have formed at other volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region, Aleutian arc, and Wrangell Mountains but apparently did not fail rapidly or result in large or catastrophic outflows. Steep valley topography and frequent eruptions at volcanoes in this region make for significant hazards associated with the formation and failure of volcanic debris dams. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2003

Quaternary deposits and landscape evolution of the central Blue Ridge of Virginia

A catastrophic storm that struck the central Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains in June 1995 delivered over 775 mm (30.5 in) of rain in 16 h. The deluge triggered more than 1000 slope failures; and stream channels and debris fans were deeply incised, exposing the stratigraphy of earlier mass movement and fluvial deposits. The synthesis of data obtained from detailed pollen studies and 39 radiometrically dated surficial deposits in the Rapidan basin gives new insights into Quaternary climatic change and landscape evolution of the central Blue Ridge Mountains. The oldest depositional landforms in the study area are fluvial terraces. Their deposits have weathering characteristics similar to both early Pleistocene and late Tertiary terrace surfaces located near the Fall Zone of Virginia. Terraces of similar ages are also present in nearby basins and suggest regional incision of streams in the area since early Pleistocene–late Tertiary time. The oldest debris-flow deposits in the study area are much older than Wisconsinan glaciation as indicated by 2.5YR colors, thick argillic horizons, and fully disintegrated granitic cobbles. Radiocarbon dating indicates that debris flow activity since 25,000 YBP has recurred, on average, at least every 2500 years. The presence of stratified slope deposits, emplaced from 27,410 through 15,800 YBP, indicates hillslope stripping and reduced vegetation cover on upland slopes during the Wisconsinan glacial maximum. Regolith generated from mechanical weathering during the Pleistocene collected in low-order stream channels and was episodically delivered to the valley floor by debris flows. Debris fans prograded onto flood plains during the late Pleistocene but have been incised by Holocene stream entrenchment. The fan incision allows Holocene debris flows to largely bypass many of the higher elevation debris fan surfaces and deposit onto the topographically lower surfaces. These episodic, high-magnitude storm events are responsible for transporting approximately half of the sediment from high gradient, low-order drainage basins to debris fans and flood plains.

Virginia↗

USGS1994

Lake Michigan's late Quaternary limnological and climate history from ostracode, oxygen isotope, and magnetic susceptibility

The limnology of Lake Michigan has changed dramatically since the late Pleistocene in response to the expansion and contraction of continental glaciers, to differential isostatic rebound, and to climate change. The lake sediment's stratigraphic trends, magnetic susceptibility, δ 18 O, and ostracode species abundance ratios provide criteria to identify the lake's response to glacial ice and to differential isostatic rebound. The latter phenomena dominate the lake's late Pleistocene and early Holocene history. The lake's hydrological budget provides the primary linkage between the lake and climate, particularly effective moisture. Dissolved salts were stored in the lake's water column when the lake's output shifted toward evaporation, but were flushed when output shifted toward outflow. The lake's salt storage history may be interpreted from some ostracode, δ 18 O, and magnetic susceptibility records found in sediment cores. Climate change influenced the entire lake's limnological history, but became the primary limnological driver from about the middle-Holocene to the present. The complex limnological history of Lake Michigan resulted in substantial changes in the ostracode species assemblages; from about 12,000 ka to about 5,500 ka, five ostracode intervals can be identified. These ostracode intervals provide a within-lake biostratigraphy and a stratigraphic reference for reconstruction of the paleoenvironmental dynamics of the lake.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2008

Cenozoic climate history from seismic reflection and drilling studies on the Antarctic continental margin

Seismic stratigraphic studies and scientific drilling of the Antarctic continental margin have yielded clues to the evolution of Cenozoic climates, depositional paleoenvironments and paleoceanographic conditions. This paper draws on studies of the former Antarctic Offshore Stratigraphy Project and others to review the geomorphic and lithostratigraphic offshore features that give insights into the long-duration (m.y.) and short-term (k.y.) changes that document the great variability of Cenozoic Antarctic paleoenvironments. The lithologic drilling record documents non-glacial (pre-early Eocene) to full-glacial (late Pliocene to Holocene) times, and documents times of cyclic ice-sheet fluctuations at k.y. scales (early Miocene to Pliocene and Holocene). Times of significant change in types and/or amounts of glaciation are also seen in the offshore lithologic record (early Oligocene, mid-Miocene, early Pliocene). Seismic data illustrate large-scale geomorphic features that point to massive sediment erosion and dispersal by ice sheets and paleoceanographic processes (e.g. cross-shelf troughs, slope-fans, rise-drifts). The commonality of these features to East and West Antarctica since late Eocene time points to a continent that has been intermittently covered, partially to completely, by glaciers and ice sheets. The greatest advances in our understanding of paleoenvironments and the processes that control them have been achieved from scientific drilling, and future progress depends on a continuation of such drilling.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Aleutian Low variability for the last 7500 years and its relation to the Westerly Jet

The Aleutian Low (AL) is one of the major atmospheric systems that determines environmental conditions during winter in the North Pacific Ocean, with impacts that affect the climates of both Asia and North America from mid- to high latitudes. However, the multi-centennial and longer scale behavior of the AL during the Holocene is not fully understood. In this study, AL variability since 7.5 ka was examined by applying the principal component analysis technique to published δ 18 O data derived from sedimentary calcite, peat, ice, and speleothem from western North America. The extracted Principal Component 1 (PC1) represents a dramatic change from the mid- to late Holocene, and appears to reflect long-term intensified AL related to interactions between orbitally-driven southward shift of the Westerly Jet (WJ) over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific, and intensification of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In contrast, PC2 is characterized by multi-centennial to millennial-scale oscillations, with a spatial loading pattern that suggests PC2 reflects AL intensity and position shifts. These oscillations are contemporaneous with both WJ latitude and/or the meandering path shifts over East Asia and solar activity change, suggesting that a decrease/increase in solar irradiance is related to AL variability via interactions with the WJ.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2011

Partially melted granodiorite and related rocks ejected from Crater Lake caldera, Oregon

Blocks of medium-grained granodiorite to 4 m, and minor diabase, quartz diorite, granite, aplite and granophyre, are common in ejecta of the ∼6,900 yrBP calderaforming eruption of Mount Mazama. The blocks show degrees of melting from 0–50 vol%. Because very few have adhering juvenile magma, it is thought that the blocks are fragments of the Holocene magma chamber's walls. Primary crystallisation of granodiorite produced phenocrystic pl + hyp + aug + mt + il + ap + zc, followed by qz + hb + bt + alkali feldspar (af). Presence of fluid inclusions in all samples implies complete crystallisation before melting. Subsolidus exchange with meteoric hydrothermal fluids before melting is evident in δ 18 O values of −3·4+4·9‰ for quartz and plagioclase in partially melted granodiorites (fresh lavas from the region have δ 18 O values of +5·8−+7·0‰); δ 18 O values of unmelted granodiorites from preclimatic eruptive units suggest hydrothermal exchange began between ∼70 and 24 ka. Before eruption, the granitic rocks equilibrated at temperatures, estimated from Fe-Ti oxide compositions, of up to ∼1000°C for c. 10 2 –10 4 years at a minimum pressure of 100-180 MPa. Heating caused progressive breakdown or dissolution of hb, af, bt, and qz, so that samples with the highest melt fractions have residual pl + qz and new or re-equilibrated af + hyp + aug + mt + il in high-silica rhyolitic glass (75-77% SiO 2 ). Mineral compositions vary systematically with increasing temperature. Hornblende is absent in rocks with Fe-Ti oxide temperatures >870°C, and bt above 970°C. Oxygen isotope fractionation between qz, pl, and glass in partially fused granodiorite also is consistent with equilibration at T≥900°C (Δ 18 O qz.pl = +0·7 ± 0·5‰). Element partitioning between glass and crystals reflects the large fraction of refractory pl, re-equilibration of af and isolation or incomplete dissolution of accessory phases. Ba and REE contents of analysed glass separates can be successfully modelled by observed degrees of partial melting of granodiorite, but Rb, Sr and Sc concentrations cannot. Several samples have veins of microlite-free glass 1–5 mm thick that are compositionally and physically continuous with intergranular melt and which apparently formed after the climactic eruption began. Whole-rock H 2 O content, microprobe glass analysis sums near 100% and evidence for high temperature suggest liquids in the hotter samples were nearly anhydrous. The occurrence of similar granodiorite blocks at all azimuths around the 8 × 10 km caldera implies derivation from one pluton. Compositional similarity between granodiorite and pre-Mazama rhyodacites suggests that the pluton may have crystallised as recently as 0·4 Ma; compositional data preclude crystallisation from the Holocene chamber. The history of crystallisation, hydrothermal alteration, and remelting of the granitic rocks may be characteristic of shallow igneous systems in which the balance between hydrothermal cooling and magmatic input changes repeatedly over intervals of 10 4 -10 6 years.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Diatoms in estuaries and tidal marshes

Diatoms from estuarine and marsh sediments can be used to evaluate a number of geological processes. Information on salinity, elevation, and substrate derived from modern assemblages have been used to determine local and regional Holocene sea level history, identify seismic and tsunami events, and aid in the recognition of regional variations in precipitation. In order to apply diatoms to these questions, it is necessary to have a detailed knowledge of the ecology of marine, brackish, and freshwater taxa, as well as an understanding of the taphonomic processes that determine the final diatom assemblage. The potential for studies of pre-Holocene estuarine depositional systems is largely limited by the availability of study sites.

The Paleontological Society Papers↗

USGS1999

Biogenic silica from the BDP93 drill site and adjacent areas of the Selenga Delta, Lake Baikal, Siberia

Biogenic silica contents of sediments on the lower Selenga Delta and Buguldeika saddle in Lake Baikal show distinct fluctuations that reflect changes in diatom productivity, and ultimately, climate. The pattern of the upper 50 m of the section, dating from about 334 ka, is similar to that of the marine oxygen-isotope record, increasingly so as the younger sediments become progressively finer grained and less locally derived with time. The last two interglaciations are marked by biogenic silica abundances similar to those of the Holocene. The equivalent of marine oxygen-isotope stage 3 is distinctly intermediate in character between full glacial and full interglacial biogenic silica values. Following near-zero values during the last glacial maximum, biogenic silica began to increase at about 13 ka. The rise in biogenic silica to Holocene values was interrupted by an abrupt decrease during Younger Dryas time, about 11 to 10 14C ka.

Lake Baikal, Selenga Delta, Siberia↗

USGS2002

Cycling of beryllium and carbon through hillslope soils in Iowa

Isotopes of Be and C were used to reconstruct loess accumulation, hillslope evolution, and agricultural modification in soils of western Iowa. While both elements are derived from additions by the atmosphere (via plants in the case of carbon), the differences in element cycling allow erosional and depositional processes to be separated from biochemical processing. Based on 10Be, loess accumulation likely occurred simultaneously with hillslope degradation. Rates of loess accumulation declined five-fold between early stages (late Pleistocene and early Holocene) and later stages (late Holocene) of accumulation, but the absolute timing of accumulation requires independent dating methods. Based on 14C measurements, plant inputs and decomposition are significant near the surface, but below 1-1.5 m carbon inputs are minimal and decomposition is nearly arrested. The amount of carbon below 1.5 m is constant (0.1%) and is composed of soil organic matter that was buried by loess. Agricultural modification results in a dramatic redistribution of 10Be through soil erosion and deposition. By contrast, the redistribution of soil organic matter is masked by the rapid cycling of C through the topsoil as it continually decomposes and is replaced by plant inputs.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2004

Limnological and climatic environments at Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon during the past 45 000 years

Upper Klamath Lake, in south-central Oregon, contains long sediment records with well-preserved diatoms and lithological variations that reflect climate-induced limnological changes. These sediment archives complement and extend high resolution terrestrial records along a north-south transect that includes areas influenced by the Aleutian Low and Subtropical High, which control both marine and continental climates in the western United States. The longest and oldest core collected in this study came from the southwest margin of the lake at Caledonia Marsh, and was dated by radiocarbon and tephrochronology to an age of about 45 ka. Paleolimnological interpretations of this core, based upon geochemical and diatom analyses, have been augmented by data from a short core collected from open water environments at nearby Howards Bay and from a 9-m core extending to 15 ka raised from the center of the northwestern part of Upper Klamath Lake. Pre- and full-glacial intervals of the Caledonia Marsh core are characterized and dominated by lithic detrital material. Planktic diatom taxa characteristic of cold-water habitats (Aulacoseira subarctica and A. islandica) alternate with warm-water planktic diatoms (A. ambigua) between 45 and 23 ka, documenting climate changes at millennial scales during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 3. The full-glacial interval contains mostly cold-water planktic, benthic, and reworked Pliocene lacustrine diatoms (from the surrounding Yonna Formation) that document shallow water conditions in a cold, windy environment. After 15 ka, diatom productivity increased. Organic carbon and biogenic silica became significant sediment components and diatoms that live in the lake today, indicative of warm, eutrophic water, became prominent. Lake levels fell during the mid-Holocene and marsh environments extended over the core site. This interval is characterized by high levels of organic carbon from emergent aquatic vegetation (Scirpus) and by the Mazama ash (7.55 ka), generated by the eruption that created nearby Crater Lake. For a brief time the ash increased the salinity of Upper Klamath Lake. High concentrations of molybdenum, arsenic, and vanadium indicate that Caledonia Marsh was anoxic from about 7 to 5 ka. After the mid-Holocene, shallow, but open-water environments returned to the core site. The sediments became dominated (>80%) by biogenic silica. The open-water cores show analogous but less extreme limnological and climatic changes more typical of mid-lake environments. Millennial-scale lake and climate changes during OIS 3 at Upper Klamath Lake contrast with a similar record of variation at Owens Lake, about 750 km south. When Upper Klamath Lake experienced cold-climate episodes during OIS 3, Owens Lake had warm but wet episodes; the reverse occurred during warmer intervals at Upper Klamath Lake. Such climatic alternations apparently reflect the variable position and strength of the Aleutian Low during the mid-Wisconsin.

Oregon↗

USGS2004

Hydrologic processes in deep vadose zones in interdrainage arid environments

A unifying theory for the hydrology of desert vadose zones is particularly timely considering the rising population and water stresses in arid and semiarid regions. Conventional models cannot reconcile the apparent discrepancy between upward flow indicated by hydraulic gradient data and downward flow suggested by environmental tracer data in deep vadose zone profiles. A conceptual model described here explains both hydraulic and tracer data remarkably well by incorporating the hydrologic role of desert plants that encroached former juniper woodland 10 to 15 thousand years ago in the southwestern United States. Vapor transport also plays an important role in redistributing moisture through deep soils, particularly in coarse-grained sediments. Application of the conceptual model to several interdrainage arid settings reproduces measured matric potentials and chloride accumulation by simulating the transition from downward flow to upward flow just below the root zone initiated by climate and vegetation change. Model results indicate a slow hydraulic drying response in deep vadose zones that enables matric potential profiles to be used to distinguish whether precipitation episodically percolated below the root zone or was completely removed via evapotranspiration during the majority of the Holocene. Recharge declined dramatically during the Holocene in interdrainage basin floor settings of arid and semiarid basins. Current flux estimates across the water table in these environmental settings, are on the order of 0.01 to 0.1 mm yr -1 and may be recharge (downward) or discharge (upward) depending on vadose zone characteristics, such as soil texture, geothermal gradient, and water table depth. In summary, diffuse recharge through the basin floor probably contributes only minimally to the total recharge in arid and semiarid basins.

Water Science and Application↗

USGS2000

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2011

Toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

At the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release. In this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811–1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts. Using these values and the grid search method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997), we estimate magnitudes around 7.0 for all four events, values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities. We further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one M max 6.8 every 500 years, a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late Holocene moment release. However, M w 6.8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811–1812 event. We show that M w 6.8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario. One can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher M max , with a longer average recurrence rate. It is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models: one in which 1811–1812 sequences occur every 500 years, with the largest events being M max ∼6.8, or one in which sequences occur, on average, less frequently, with Mmax of ∼7.0. Both models predict that the late Holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years.

New Madrid Seismic Zone↗

USGS2024

Clumped isotopes record a glacial-interglacial shift in seasonality of soil carbonate accumulation in the San Luis Valley, southern Rocky Mountains, USA

Clumped isotope paleothermometry using pedogenic carbonates is a powerful tool for investigating past climate changes. However, location-specific seasonal patterns of precipitation and soil moisture cause systematic biases in the temperatures they record, hampering comparison of data across large areas or differing climate states. To account for biases, more systematic studies of carbonate forming processes are needed. We measured modern soil temperatures within the San Luis Valley of the Rocky Mountains and compared them to paleotemperatures determined using clumped isotopes. For Holocene-age samples, clumped isotope results indicate carbonate accumulated at a range of temperatures with site averages similar to the annual mean. Paleotemperatures for late Pleistocene-age samples (ranging 19–72 ka in age) yielded site averages only 2°C lower, despite evidence that annual temperatures during glacial periods were 5–9°C colder than modern. We use a 1D numerical model of soil physics to support the idea that differences in hydrologic conditions in interglacial versus glacial periods promote differences in the seasonal distribution of soil carbonate accumulation. Model simulations of modern (Holocene) conditions suggest that soil drying under low soil p CO 2 favors year-round carbonate accumulation in this region but peaking during post-monsoon soil drying. During a “glacial” simulation with lowered temperatures and added snowpack, more carbonate accumulation shifted to the summer season. These experiments show that changing hydrologic regimes could change the seasonality of carbonate accumulation, which in this study blunts the use of clumped isotopes to quantify glacial-interglacial temperature changes. This highlights the importance of understanding seasonal biases of climate proxies for accurate paleoenvironmental reconstruction.

Colorado, new Mexico↗