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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development

The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America.

Energy Policy↗

Complexity of human and ecosystem interactions in an agricultural landscape

The complexity of human interaction in the commercial agricultural landscape and the resulting impacts on the ecosystem services of water quality and quantity is largely ignored by the current agricultural paradigm that maximizes crop production over other ecosystem services. Three examples at different spatial scales (local, regional, and global) are presented where human and ecosystem interactions in a commercial agricultural landscape adversely affect water quality and quantity in unintended ways in the Delta of northwestern Mississippi. In the first example, little to no regulation of groundwater use for irrigation has caused declines in groundwater levels resulting in loss of baseflow to streams and threatening future water supply. In the second example, federal policy which subsidizes corn for biofuel production has encouraged many producers to switch from cotton to corn, which requires more nutrients and water, counter to national efforts to reduce nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico and exacerbating groundwater level declines. The third example is the wholesale adoption of a system for weed control that relies on a single chemical, initially providing many benefits and ultimately leading to the widespread occurrence of glyphosate and its degradates in Delta streams and necessitating higher application rates of glyphosate as well as the use of other herbicides due to increasing weed resistance. Although these examples are specific to the Mississippi Delta, analogous situations exist throughout the world and point to the need for change in how we grow our food, fuel, and fiber, and manage our soil and water resources.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri↗

Effects of a low severity prescribed fire on water-soluble elements in ash from a cork oak (Quercus suber) forest located in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula

Wildfire is the major disturbance in Mediterranean forests. Prescribed fire can be an alternative to reduce the amount of fuel and hence decrease the wildfire risk. However the effects of prescribed fire must be studied, especially on ash properties, because ash is an important nutrient source for ecosystem recovery. The aim of this study is to determine the effects of a low severity prescribed fire on water-soluble elements in ash including pH, electrical conductivity (EC), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), potassium (K), aluminum (Al), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), silica (SiO 2 ) and total sulphur (TS). A prescribed fire was conducted in a cork oak ( Quercus suber ) (Q.S) forest located in the northeast part of the Iberian Peninsula. Samples were collected from a flat plot of 40×70 m mainly composed of Q.S and Quercus robur (Q.R) trees. In order to understand the effects of the prescribed fire on the soluble elements in ash, we conducted our data analysis on three data groups: all samples, only Q.S samples and only Q.R samples. All three sample groups exhibited a significant increase in pH, EC ( p <0.001), water-soluble Ca, Mg, Na, SiO 2 and TS and a decrease in water-soluble Mn, Fe and Zn. Differences were identified between oak species for water-soluble K, Al and Fe. In Q.S samples we registered a significant increase in the first two elements p <0.001 and p <0.01, respectively, and a non-significant impact in the third, at p <0.05. In Q.R data we identified a non-significant impact on water-soluble K and Al and a significant decrease in water-soluble Fe ( p <0.05). These differences are probably due to vegetation characteristics and burn severity. The fire induced a higher variability in the ash soluble elements, especially in Q.S samples, that at some points burned with higher severity. The increase of pH, EC, Ca, Mg, Na and K will improve soil fertility, mainly in the study area where soils are acidic. The application of this low severity prescribed fire will improve soil nutrient status without causing soil degradation and thus is considered to be a good management strategy.

Environmental Research↗

Greenhouse gas emissions from an arid-zone reservoir and their environmental policy significance: Results from existing global models and an exploratory dataset

Reservoirs in arid regions often provide critical water storage but little is known about their greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint. While there is growing appreciation of the role reservoirs play as GHG sources, there is a lack of understanding of GHG emission dynamics from reservoirs in arid regions and implications for environmental policy. Here we present initial GHG emission measurements from Lake Powell, a large water storage reservoir in the desert southwest United States. We report CO 2 -eq emissions from the shallow (< 15 m) littoral regions of the reservoir that are higher than the global average areal emissions from reservoirs (9.4 vs. 5.8 g CO 2 -eq m −2 d −1 ) whereas fluxes from the main reservoir were two orders of magnitude lower (0.09 g CO 2 -eq m −2 d −1 ). We then compared our measurements to modeled CO 2 + CH 4 emissions from the reservoir using four global scale models. Factoring these emissions into hydropower production at Lake Powell yielded low GHG emissions per MWh −1 as compared to fossil-fuel based energy sources. With the exception of one model, the estimated hydropower emissions for Lake Powell ranged from 10−32 kg CO 2 -eq MWh −1 , compared to ∼400−1000 kg CO 2 -eq MWh −1 for natural gas, oil, and coal. We also estimate that reduced littoral habitat under low water levels leads to ∼50% reduction in the CO 2 equivalent emissions per MWh. The sensitivity of GHG emissions to reservoir water levels suggests that the interaction will be an important policy consideration in the design and operation of arid region systems.

Utah↗

Thermal and petrologic constraints on lower crustal melt accumulation under the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

In the Salton Sea region of southern California (USA), concurrent magmatism, extension, subsidence, and sedimentation over the past 0.5 to 1.0 Ma have led to the creation of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF)—the second largest and hottest geothermal system in the continental United States—and the small-volume rhyolite eruptions that created the Salton Buttes. In this study, we determine the flux of mantle-derived basaltic magma that would be required to produce the elevated average heat flow and sustain the magmatic roots of rhyolite volcanism observed at the surface of the Salton Sea region. We use a 2D thermal model to show that a lower-crustal, partially molten mush containing &lt; 20 &#x2013; 40 % "> <20–40% interstitial melt develops over a &#x223C; 10 5 "> ∼105 -yr timescale for basalt fluxes of 0.008 to 0.010 m 3 / m 2 / yr "> 0.010m3/m2/yr (∼0.0008 to ∼0.001 km / 3 yr "> /3yr injection rate) given extension rates at or below the current value of ∼0.01 m/yr ( Brothers et al., 2009 ). These regions of partial melt are a natural consequence of a thermal regime that scales with average surface heat flow in the Salton Trough, and are consistent with seismic observations. Our results indicate limited melting and assimilation of pre-existing rocks in the lower crust. Instead, we find that basalt fractionation in the lower crust produces derivative melts of andesitic to dacitic composition. Such melts are then expected to ascend and accumulate in the upper crust, where they further evolve to give rise to small-volume rhyolite eruptions (Salton Buttes) and fuel local spikes in surface heat flux as currently seen in the SSGF. Such upper crustal magma evolution, with limited assimilation of hydrothermally altered material, is required to explain the slight decrease in &#x3B4; 18 O "> δ18O values of zircons (and melts) that have been measured in these rhyolites.

California↗

Estimating stand structure using discrete-return lidar: an example from low density, fire prone ponderosa pine forests

The ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA, have historically been subjected to wildfires. Recent large burns have increased public interest in fire behavior and effects, and scientific interest in the carbon consequences of wildfires. Remote sensing techniques can provide spatially explicit estimates of stand structural characteristics. Some of these characteristics can be used as inputs to fire behavior models, increasing our understanding of the effect of fuels on fire behavior. Others provide estimates of carbon stocks, allowing us to quantify the carbon consequences of fire. Our objective was to use discrete-return lidar to estimate such variables, including stand height, total aboveground biomass, foliage biomass, basal area, tree density, canopy base height and canopy bulk density. We developed 39 metrics from the lidar data, and used them in limited combinations in regression models, which we fit to field estimates of the stand structural variables. We used an information&ndash;theoretic approach to select the best model for each variable, and to select the subset of lidar metrics with most predictive potential. Observed versus predicted values of stand structure variables were highly correlated, with r 2 ranging from 57% to 87%. The most parsimonious linear models for the biomass structure variables, based on a restricted dataset, explained between 35% and 58% of the observed variability. Our results provide us with useful estimates of stand height, total aboveground biomass, foliage biomass and basal area. There is promise for using this sensor to estimate tree density, canopy base height and canopy bulk density, though more research is needed to generate robust relationships. We selected 14 lidar metrics that showed the most potential as predictors of stand structure. We suggest that the focus of future lidar studies should broaden to include low density forests, particularly systems where the vertical structure of the canopy is important, such as fire prone forests.

Colorado↗

Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA, 1940-2002

The current ecological state of the Lake Tahoe basin has been shaped by significant landscape-altering human activity and management practices since the mid-1850s; first through widespread timber harvesting from the 1850s to 1920s followed by urban development from the 1950s to the present. Consequences of landscape change, both from development and forest management practices including fire suppression, have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The impacts from these activities include decreased water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard. To establish an understanding of the Lake Tahoe basin's landscape change in the context of forest management and development we mapped, quantified, and described the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin (279 km2) from 1940 to 2002. Our assessment relied on post-classification change detection of multi-temporal land-use/cover and impervious-surface-area data that were derived through manual interpretation, image processing, and GIS data integration for four dates of imagery: 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002. The most significant land conversion during the 62-year study period was an increase in developed lands with a corresponding decrease in forests, wetlands, and shrublands. Forest stand densities increased throughout the 62-year study period, and modern thinning efforts resulted in localized stand density decreases in the latter part of the study period. Additionally forests were gained from succession, and towards the end of the study period extensive tree mortality occurred. The highest rates of change occurred between 1940 and 1969, corresponding with dramatic development, then rates declined through 2002 for all observed landscape changes except forest density decrease and tree mortality. Causes of landscape change included regional population growth, tourism demands, timber harvest for local use, fire suppression, bark beetle attack, and fuels reduction activities. Results from this study offer land managers within the Lake Tahoe basin and in similar regions a basis for making better informed land-use and management decisions to potentially minimize detrimental ecological impacts of landscape change. The perspective to be gained is based on quantitative retrospection of the effects of human-driven changes and the impacts of management action or inaction to the forested landscape. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Prescribed fires as ecological surrogates for wildfires: A stream and riparian perspective

Forest managers use prescribed fire to reduce wildfire risk and to provide resource benefits, yet little information is available on whether prescribed fires can function as ecological surrogates for wildfire in fire-prone landscapes. Information on impacts and benefits of this management tool on stream and riparian ecosystems is particularly lacking. We used a beyond-BACI (Before, After, Control, Impact) design to investigate the effects of a prescribed fire on a stream ecosystem and compared these findings to similar data collected after wildfire. For 3 years after prescribed fire treatment, we found no detectable changes in periphyton, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, fish, and riparian and stream habitats compared to data collected over the same time period in four unburned reference streams. Based on changes in fuels, plant and litter cover, and tree scorching, this prescribed fire was typical of those being implemented in ponderosa pine forests throughout the western U.S. However, we found that the extent and severity of riparian vegetation burned was substantially lower after prescribed fire compared to nearby wildfires. The early-season prescribed fire did not mimic the riparian or in-stream ecological effects observed following a nearby wildfire, even in catchments with burn extents similar to the prescribed fire. Little information exists on the effects of long-term fire exclusion from riparian forests, but a "prescribed fire regime" of repeatedly burning upland forests while excluding fire in adjacent riparian forests may eliminate an important natural disturbance from riparian and stream habitats.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1&ndash;3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286&ndash;5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

Idaho↗

Tree mortality patterns following prescribed fire for Pinus and Abies across the southwestern United States

The reintroduction of fire to historically fire-prone forests has been repeatedly shown to reduce understory fuels and promote resistance to high severity fire. However, there is concern that prescribed fire may also have unintended consequences, such as high rates of mortality for large trees and fire-tolerant Pinus species. To test this possibility we evaluated mortality patterns for two common genera in the western US, Pinus and Abies , using observations from a national-scale prescribed fire effects monitoring program. Our results show that mortality rates of trees >50 DBH were similar for Pinus (4.6% yr -1 ) and Abies (4.0% yr -1 ) 5 years following prescribed fires across seven sites in the southwestern US. In contrast, mortality rates of trees >50 cm DBH differed between Pinus (5.7% yr -1 ) and Abies (9.0% yr -1 ). Models of post-fire mortality probabilities suggested statistically significant differences between the genera (after including differences in bark thickness), but accounting for these differences resulted in only small improvements in model classification. Our results do not suggest unusually high post-fire mortality for large trees or for Pinus relative to the other common co-occurring genus, Abies , following prescribed fire in the southwestern US.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Effect of long-term understory prescribed burning on standing and down dead woody material in dry upland oak forests

Dead woody material, long ignored or viewed as a nuisance for forest management, has gained appreciation for its many roles in the forest including wildlife habitat, nutrient storage and cycling, energy for trophic webs, protection of soil, fuel for fire and carbon storage. The growing interest in managing dead woody material has created strong demand for greater understanding of factors controlling amounts and turnover. Prescribed burning, an important management tool, may have strong effects of dead woody material given fire&rsquo;s capacity to create and consume dead woody material. We determined effects of long-term understory prescribed burning on standing and down woody material in upland oak forests in south-central North America. We hypothesized that as frequency of fire increased in these stands the amount of deadwood would decrease and the fine woody material would decrease more rapidly than coarse woody material. The study was conducted in forests dominated by post oak ( Quercus stellata ) and blackjack oak ( Quercus marilandica ) in wildlife management areas where understory prescribed burning had been practiced for over 20 years and the range of burn frequencies was 0 (unburned) fires per decade (FPD) to 4.6 FPD. The amount of deadwood was low compared with more productive forests in southeastern North America. The biomass (24.7 Mg ha -1 ) and carbon stocks (11.7 Mg ha -1 ) were distributed among standing dead (22%), coarse woody debris (CWD, dia. > 7.5 cm., 12%), fine woody debris (FWD, dia. < 7.5 cm., 23%), and forest floor (43%). There was no evidence that understory prescribed burning influenced the amount and size distribution of standing and down dead woody material. There were two explanations for the lack of a detectable effect. First, a high incidence of severe weather including ice storms and strong winds that produce large amounts of deadwood intermittently in an irregular pattern across the landscape may preclude detecting a strong effect of understory prescribed burning. Second, fire suppression during the first one-half of the 20th Century may have led to encroachment of woody plants into forest gaps and savannas creating a patchwork of young and old stands that produced deadwood of different sizes and at different rates.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Strategies for preventing invasive plant outbreaks after prescribed fire in ponderosa pine forest

Land managers use prescribed fire to return a vital process to fire-adapted ecosystems, restore forest structure from a state altered by long-term fire suppression, and reduce wildfire intensity. However, fire often produces favorable conditions for invasive plant species, particularly if it is intense enough to reveal bare mineral soil and open previously closed canopies. Understanding the environmental or fire characteristics that explain post-fire invasive plant abundance would aid managers in efficiently finding and quickly responding to fire-caused infestations. To that end, we used an information-theoretic model-selection approach to assess the relative importance of abiotic environmental characteristics (topoedaphic position, distance from roads), pre-and post-fire biotic environmental characteristics (forest structure, understory vegetation, fuel load), and prescribed fire severity (measured in four different ways) in explaining invasive plant cover in ponderosa pine forest in South Dakota’s Black Hills. Environmental characteristics (distance from roads and post-fire forest structure) alone provided the most explanation of variation (26%) in post-fire cover of Verbascum thapsus (common mullein), but a combination of surface fire severity and environmental characteristics (pre-fire forest structure and distance from roads) explained 36–39% of the variation in post-fire cover of Cirsium arvense (Canada thistle) and all invasives together. For four species and all invasives together, their pre-fire cover explained more variation (26–82%) in post-fire cover than environmental and fire characteristics did, suggesting one strategy for reducing post-fire invasive outbreaks may be to find and control invasives before the fire. Finding them may be difficult, however, since pre-fire environmental characteristics explained only 20% of variation in pre-fire total invasive cover, and less for individual species. Thus, moderating fire intensity or targeting areas of high severity for post-fire invasive control may be the most efficient means for reducing the chances of post-fire invasive plant outbreaks when conducting prescribed fires in this region.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Short-term ecological consequences of collaborative restoration treatments in ponderosa pine forests of Colorado

Ecological restoration treatments are being implemented at an increasing rate in ponderosa pine and other dry conifer forests across the western United States, via the USDA Forest Service’s Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration (CFLR) program. In this program, collaborative stakeholder groups work with National Forests (NFs) to adaptively implement and monitor ecological restoration treatments intended to offset the effects of many decades of anthropogenic stressors. We initiated a novel study to expand the scope of treatment effectiveness monitoring efforts in one of the first CFLR landscapes, Colorado’s Front Range. We used a Before/After/Control/Impact framework to evaluate the short-term consequences of treatments on numerous ecological properties. We collected pre-treatment and one year post-treatment data on NF and partner agencies’ lands, in 66 plots distributed across seven treatment units and nearby untreated areas. Our results reflected progress toward several treatment objectives: treated areas had lower tree density and basal area, greater openness, no increase in exotic understory plants, no decrease in native understory plants, and no decrease in use by tree squirrels and ungulates. However, some findings suggested the need for adaptive modification of both treatment prescriptions and monitoring protocols: treatments did not promote heterogeneity of stand structure, and monitoring methods may not have been robust enough to detect changes in surface fuels. Our study highlights both the effective aspects of these restoration treatments, and the importance of initiating and continuing collaborative science-based monitoring to improve the outcomes of broad-scale forest restoration efforts.

Colorado↗

Pathways of productivity and influences on top consumers in forested streams

Forested stream ecosystems involve complex physical and biotic pathways that can influence fish in numerous ways. Consequently, the responses of fish communities to disturbance can be difficult to understand. In this study, we employed a food web model that links biotic (e.g., physiology, predator–prey interactions) and abiotic (e.g., temperature, sunlight) attributes to address fish responses to changes in stream-riparian ecosystems. We modeled responses to food web dynamics in four streams, using scenarios that included responses to riparian disturbance, climate change, and shifts in top consumers. The two consumers we focused on were coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and sculpin ( Cottus spp., collectively treated as a functional group) . We found the responses to environmental changes varied by fish species and among streams, and that responses were not independent due to exploitative interspecific competition. Simulations based on long-term data indicated that coastal cutthroat trout were responsive to changes in allochthonous resources including terrestrial detritus and invertebrates, whereas sculpin were more responsive to changes to autochthonous resources that included, periphyton and aquatic invertebrates. These results may be, in part, a consequence of species-specific foraging behavior. Trout have a higher propensity to drift feed and therefore receive a substantial subsidy from terrestrial invertebrates, whereas sculpin feed mostly on aquatic insects on the streambed. Simulations of changes in summer temperature and stream discharge suggest decreased biomass of both fish species because of physiological constraints on invertebrate prey which reduce fish foraging opportunities. Exploitative competition also may be important in fish responses: when one fish taxon was removed, the other showed increased biomass. Although the pattern of simulation results was consistent across the four streams, the magnitude of change varied among streams. Streams with food webs fueled by multiple energy sources may be more resilient to changes to riparian forests and climate. Through application of a systems model, we gained insights into pathways of productivity for fish in forested stream ecosystems that provide understanding of processes that influence fish and streams, as well as implications for management of both.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Stable C, O and clumped isotope systematics and 14C geochronology of carbonates from the Quaternary Chewaucan closed-basin lake system, Great Basin, USA: Implications for paleoenvironmental reconstructions using carbonates

Isotopic compositions of lacustrine carbonates are commonly used for dating and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Here we use carbonate δ13C and δ18O, clumped (Δ47), and 14C compositions to better understand the carbonate isotope system in closed-basin lakes and trace the paleohydrologic and temperature evolution in the Chewaucan closed-basin lake system, northern Great Basin, USA, over the Last Glacial/Holocene transition. We focus on shorezone tufas to establish that they form in isotopic equilibrium with lake water and DIC, they can be dated reliably using 14C, and their clumped isotope composition can be used to reconstruct past lake temperature. Calculations of the DIC budget and reservoir age for the lake indicate residence time is short, and dominated by exchange with atmospheric CO2 at all past lake levels. Modern lake DIC and shorezone tufas yield δ13C and 14C values consistent with isotopic equilibrium with recent fossil fuel and bomb-influenced atmospheric CO2, supporting these calculations. δ13C values of fossil tufas are also consistent with isotopic equilibrium with pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 at all shoreline elevations. This indicates that the 14C reservoir effect for this material is negligible. Clumped isotope (Δ47) results indicate shorezone tufas record mean annual lake temperature. Modern (average 13 ± 2 °C) and 18 ka BP-age tufas (average 6 ± 2 °C) have significantly different temperatures consistent with mean annual temperature lowering of 7 ± 3 °C (1 SE) under full glacial conditions. For shorezone tufas and other lake carbonates, including spring mounds, mollusk shells, and ostracod tests, overall δ13C and δ18O values co-vary according to the relative contribution of spring and lacustrine end member DIC and water compositions in the drainage system, but specific isotope values depend strongly upon sample context and are not well correlated with past lake depth. This contrasts with the interpretation that carbonate isotopes in closed-basin lake systems reflect changes in DIC and water budgets connected to higher or lower lake volumes. Instead, a small overlapping range of isotope compositions characterize multiple lake levels, so that none can be identified uniquely by isotope composition alone. Relative to other lake carbonates, δ13C and δ18O values for ostracods in Ana River Canyon deposits are very strongly influenced by Ana River water, suggesting low lake level and volume characterized Summer Lake for most of the past 100,000 years. Coupled with sedimentologic observations, the Ana River deposits thus suggest dry conditions like today are close to the mean climate state in the northern Great Basin. By contrast, basin-integrating highstands such as that dating to ∼14 ka BP, during the last glacial termination, are hydrologically unique and short-lived. Overall, our results indicate carbonate isotope records must account for the specific geochemical and hydrologic characteristics of lake system in order to provide robust paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Great Basin↗

Potential 2050 distributions of World Terrestrial Ecosystems from projections of changes in World Climate Regions and Global Land Cover

The urgency to address ecosystem loss is paramount, as both land use change and climate change will continue to rapidly alter and degrade natural ecosystems and reduce the many services they provide. To support conservation actions that mitigate impacts from these dual threats, we have developed potential World Terrestrial Ecosystem (WTE) distributions for 2050 following IPCC best practice guidelines. This projection of ecosystem distributions builds on the previously released 2015 WTEs, a snapshot of the distribution and conservation status of 431 terrestrial ecosystem types defined as distinct combinations of 18 global climate regions, 4 global landform classes, and 8 global vegetation/land cover classes. Extending that work herein, we modeled the potential 2050 WTE distributions based on projections of five CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) and one global land cover change model, determined for three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The climate region modeling included projections for 2050 for both mean annual temperature and mean annual aridity. Model agreement for changes to WTEs was generally high, particularly for temperature projections. Widespread changes in ecosystem classes due to shifts in climate settings and/or land cover between 2015 and 2050 were projected, with both the magnitude and specific geography of projected change largely governed by the SSP scenario. For the three SSP scenarios (sustainable development, regional rivalry, and fossil-fueled development), geographic changes in climate setting (temperature, aridity, or both) and/or changes in vegetation/land cover are projected for 29 %, 36 %, and 39 % of Earth’s terrestrial surface, respectively. These changes occur in areas where 31 %, 36 %, and 41 % of the global population lives. Projected changes in ecosystem distributions related to temperature change are approximately an order of magnitude greater than for aridity change. By offering insight into potential ecosystem changes, this new resource is intended to facilitate conservation planning and priority setting aimed at improved conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Small anthropogenic landforms from past charcoal production control moisture dynamics and chemistry in northcentral Appalachian soils

Throughout the northeastern United States (U.S.) and Europe, relict charcoal hearths (RCHs) are regularly being discovered in proximity to furnaces once used for the extraction of metal from ore or quick-lime production; charcoal produced in hearths was used as a furnace fuel. Given previous research has shown that topographic and subsurface disturbance can be great when a hearth is constructed, we hypothesize that hearth construction alters surface hydrology and soil chemistry in environments in and near hearths. We used a landscape classification process to identify 6,758 hearths near furnaces at Greenwood and Pine Grove Furnace State Park, central and southcentral Pennsylvania, U.S. Two types of digital elevation model wetness indexes were used to quantify surface hydrology effects in and around hearths. Modeled wetness conditions were compared to field soil volumetric water content in RCHs near Greenwood Furnace State Park. Modeled wetness indexes indicate that RCH interiors are significantly wetter than RCH rim areas; RCHs are acting as a landscape moisture sink. Results also indicate that RCHs on slopes result in downslope drier conditions below RCHs. Field measured volumetric water content indicates that as distance from the center of the hearth increases, soil moisture significantly decreases. Geomorphic position was found to not be related to RCH wetness. Soil from RCHs, compared to nearby native soils, has significantly higher total C, a lower Mehlich 3 extractable acidity, higher Ca and P. No trend was evident with RCH soil chemistry and geomorphic position. The high frequency of RCH occurrence, in proximity to the furnace’s RCHs supported, suggests that RCHs today could locally be an important niche for understory flora and fauna. Further research could explore how RCHs might be affecting surrounding plant populations and how within RCH patterns, especially on hillslopes, might represent a distinctly different scale of physical and chemical variability.

Pennsylvania↗

Pb-Sr isotopic and geochemical constraints on sources and processes of lead contamination in well waters and soil from former fruit orchards, Pennsylvania, USA: A legacy of anthropogenic activities

Isotopic discrimination can be an effective tool in establishing a direct link between sources of Pb contamination and the presence of anomalously high concentrations of Pb in waters, soils, and organisms. Residential wells supplying water containing up to 1600 ppb Pb to houses built on the former Mohr orchards commercial site, near Allentown, PA, were evaluated to discern anthropogenic from geogenic sources. Pb (n = 144) and Sr (n = 40) isotopic data and REE (n = 29) data were determined for waters from residential wells, test wells (drilled for this study), and surface waters from pond and creeks. Local soils, sediments, bedrock, Zn-Pb mineralization and coal were also analyzed (n = 94), together with locally used Pb-As pesticide (n = 5). Waters from residential and test wells show overlapping values of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb, 208 Pb/ 207 Pb and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr. Larger negative Ce anomalies (Ce/Ce*) distinguish residential wells from test wells. Results show that residential and test well waters, sediments from residential water filters in water tanks, and surface waters display broad linear trends in Pb isotope plots. Pb isotope data for soils, bedrock, and pesticides have contrasting ranges and overlapping trends. Contributions of Pb from soils to residential well waters are limited and implicated primarily in wells having shallow water-bearing zones and carrying high sediment contents. Pb isotope data for residential wells, test wells, and surface waters show substantial overlap with Pb data reflecting anthropogenic actions (e.g., burning fossil fuels, industrial and urban processing activities). Limited contributions of Pb from bedrock, soils, and pesticides are evident. High Pb concentrations in the residential waters are likely related to sediment build up in residential water tanks. Redox reactions, triggered by influx of groundwater via wells into the residential water systems and leading to subtle changes in pH, are implicated in precipitation of Fe oxyhydroxides, oxidative scavenging of Ce(IV), and desorption and release of Pb into the residential water systems. The Pb isotope features in the residences and the region are best interpreted as reflecting a legacy of industrial Pb present in underlying aquifers that currently supply the drinking water wells.

Pennsylvania↗