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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Status and population trends of Hawaii's native waterbirds, 1977-1987

Status and population trends of Hawaiis ’ native waterbirds were examined from 1977 through 1987. Waterbird population fluctuations were analyzed in relation to rainfall and land use dynamics. Numbers of Hawaiian Duck (Koloa) ( Anus wyvilliana ) and Hawaiian Common Moorhen ( Gallinula chloropus sandvicensis ) appeared stable over time; however, surveys were limited. Increase in Black-crowned Night-Heron ( Nycticorux nycticorux ) abundance appeared linked to expansion of aquaculture, particularly on Oahu, and not to climatic events. Annual rainfall patterns help explain and predict population fluctuations and anomalous distribution patterns involving Hawaiian American Coots ( Fulica americana alai ), moorhens, and Hawaiian Black-necked Stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus knudseni ). Coot, stilt, and moorhen populations fluctuated with climatic events, and intraisland dispersal to ephemeral wetlands occurred. Stilts exhibited regular inter-island migratory behavior, but coots dispersed in relation to major rainfall events. Seasonal fluctuation recorded for coots by past observers is the result of survey techniques not accounting for seasonal dispersal patterns.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2018

Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The U.S. Pacific Islands are culturally and environmentally diverse, treasured by the 1.9 million people who call them home. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their exposure and isolation, small size, low elevation (in the case of atolls), and concentration of infrastructure and economy along the coasts. A prevalent cause of year-to-year changes in climate patterns around the globe and in the Pacific Islands region is the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, air and ocean temperature, sea surface height, storminess, wave size, and trade winds. It is unknown exactly how the timing and intensity of ENSO will continue to change in the coming decades, but recent climate model results suggest a doubling in frequency of both El Niño and La Niña extremes in this century as compared to the 20th century under scenarios with more warming, including the higher scenario (RCP8.5). On islands, all natural sources of freshwater come from rainfall received within their limited land areas. Severe droughts are common, making water shortage one of the most important climate-related risks in the region. As temperature continues to rise and cloud cover decreases in some areas, evaporation is expected to increase, causing both reduced water supply and higher water demand. Streamflow in Hawai‘i has declined over approximately the past 100 years, consistent with observed decreases in rainfall. The impacts of sea level rise in the Pacific include coastal erosion, episodic flooding, permanent inundation, heightened exposure to marine hazards, and saltwater intrusion to surface water and groundwater systems. Sea level rise will disproportionately affect the tropical Pacific and potentially exceed the global average. Invasive species , landscape change, habitat alteration, and reduced resilience have resulted in extinctions and diminished ecosystem function. Inundation of atolls in the coming decades is projected to impact existing on-island ecosystems. Wildlife that relies on coastal habitats will likely also be severely impacted. In Hawaiʻi, coral reefs contribute an estimated $477 million to the local economy every year. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5°F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands region will experience annual bleaching before 2050. An ecosystem -based approach to international management of open ocean fisheries in the Pacific that incorporates climate-informed catch limits is expected to produce more realistic future harvest levels and enhance ecosystem resilience. Indigenous communities of the Pacific derive their sense of identity from the islands. Emerging issues for Indigenous communities of the Pacific include the resilience of marine-managed areas and climate-induced human migration from their traditional lands. The rich body of traditional knowledge is place-based and localized and is useful in adaptation planning because it builds on intergenerational sharing of observations. Documenting the kinds of governance structures or decision-making hierarchies created for management of these lands and waters is also important as a learning tool that can be shared with other island communities. Across the region, groups are coming together to minimize damage and disruption from coastal flooding and inundation as well as other climate-related impacts. Social cohesion is already strong in many communities, making it possible to work together to take action. Early intervention can lower economic, environmental, social, and cultural costs and reduce or prevent conflict and displacement from ancestral land and resources.

Report↗
USGS2004

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2017

A synthesis of thermokarst lake water balance in high-latitude regions of North America from isotope tracers

Numerous studies utilizing remote sensing imagery and other methods have documented that thermokarst lakes are undergoing varied hydrological transitions in response to recent climate changes, from surface area expansion to drainage and evaporative desiccation. Here, we provide a synthesis of hydrological conditions for 376 lakes of mainly thermokarst origin across high-latitude North America. We assemble surface water isotope compositions measured during the past decade at five lake-rich landscapes including Arctic Coastal Plain (Alaska), Yukon Flats (Alaska), Old Crow Flats (Yukon), northwestern Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba), and Nunavik (Quebec). These landscapes represent the broad range of thermokarst environments by spanning gradients in meteorological, permafrost, and vegetation conditions. An isotope framework was established based on flux-weighted long-term averages of meteorological conditions for each lake to quantify water balance metrics. The isotope composition of source water and evaporation-to-inflow ratio for each lake were determined, and the results demonstrated a substantial array of regional and subregional diversity of lake hydrological conditions. Controls on lake water balance and how these vary among the five landscapes and with differing environmental drivers are assessed. Findings reveal that lakes in the Hudson Bay Lowlands are most vulnerable to evaporative desiccation, whereas those in Nunavik are most resilient. However, we also identify the complexity in predicting hydrological responses of these thermokarst landscapes to future climate change.

Arctic Science↗
USGS2023

Climate-driven mid- to late Holocene hydrologic evolution of arid wetlands documented by strontium, uranium, and oxygen isotopes from Lower Pahranagat Lake, southern Nevada, USA

Lacustrine carbonates in a 12.4-m-long core from Lower Pahranagat Lake (LPAH), southern Nevada, indicate that radiogenic isotopes of Sr and U ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 234 U/ 238 U) preserve evidence of past variations in water sources and evolving hydrologic conditions. Sr and U isotope compositions in LPAH carbonates fall within the range defined by the three primary groundwater sources in Pahranagat Valley and reflect variable mixtures of those sources since the mid-Holocene. Compositions in the oldest sample (5.78 ka) closely match modern compositions of modern discharge from nearby springs, indicating that LPAH water was derived almost exclusively from the local volcanic aquifer. By ca. 5.3–5.2 ka, LPAH water compositions shifted sharply towards isotopic compositions observed in groundwater from the regional carbonate aquifer, indicating a marked increase in surface flow from high-volume springs discharging from the carbonate aquifer to the north. Sediments deposited between 3.08–1.06 ka indicate reduced contributions from the regional aquifer. A comparison of uranium- and oxygen-isotope values in LPAH carbonates suggests that wetter climate conditions favor increased supply from deeper, regional carbonate aquifers compared to drier conditions when contributions from shallower, local volcanic aquifers were more important.

Nevada↗
USGS2009

Geologic Map of MTM 35337, 40337, and 45337 Quadrangles, Deuteronilus Mensae Region of Mars

Deuteronilus Mensae, first defined as an albedo feature at lat 35.0 deg N., long 5.0 deg E., by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and International Astronomical Union (IAU) nomenclature, is a gradational zone along the dichotomy boundary in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. The boundary in this location includes the transition from the rugged cratered highlands of Arabia Terra to the northern lowland plains of Acidalia Planitia. Within Deuteronilus Mensae, polygonal mesas are prominent along with features diagnostic of Martian fretted terrain, including lobate debris aprons, lineated valley fill, and concentric crater fill. Lobate debris aprons, as well as the valley and crater fill deposits, are geomorphic indicators of ground ice, and their concentration in Deuteronilus Mensae is of great interest because of their potential association with Martian climate change. The paucity of impact craters on the surfaces of debris aprons and the presence of ice-cemented mantle material imply young (for example, Amazonian) surface ages that are consistent with recent climate change in this region of Mars. North of Deuteronilus Mensae are the northern lowlands, a potential depositional sink that may have had large standing bodies of water or an ocean in the past. The northern lowlands have elevations that are several kilometers below the ancient cratered highlands with significantly younger surface ages. The morphologic and topographic characteristics of the Deuteronilus Mensae region record a diverse geologic history, including significant modification of the ancient highland plateau and resurfacing of low-lying regions. Previous studies of this region have interpreted a complex array of geologic processes, including eolian, fluvial and glacial activity, coastal erosion, marine deposition, mass wasting, tectonic faulting, effusive volcanism, and hydrovolcanism. The origin and age of the Martian crustal dichotomy boundary are fundamental questions that remain unresolved at the present time. Several scenarios for its formation, including single and multiple large impact events, have been proposed and debated in the literature. Endogenic processes whereby crust is thinned by internal mantle convection and tectonic processes have also been proposed. Planetary accretion models and isotopic data from Martian meteorites suggest that the crust formed very early in Martian history. Using populations of quasi-circular depressions extracted from the topography of Mars, other studies suggest that the age difference between the highlands and lowlands could be ~100 m.y.. Furthermore, understanding the origin and age of the dichotomy boundary has been made more complicated due to significant erosion and deposition that have modified the boundary and its adjacent regions. The resulting diversity of terrains and features is likely a combined result of ancient and recent events. Detailed geologic analyses of dichotomy boundary zones are important for understanding the spatial and temporal variations in highland evolution. This information, and comparisons to other highland regions, can help elucidate the scale of potential environmental changes. Previous geomorphic and geologic mapping investigations of the Deuteronilus Mensae region have been completed at local to global scales. The regional geology was first mapped by Lucchitta (1978) at 1:5,000,000 scale using Mariner 9 data. This study concluded that high crater flux early in Martian history formed overlapping craters and basins that were later filled by voluminous lava flows that buried the impacted surface, creating the highlands. After this period of heavy bombardment, fluvial erosion of the highlands formed the canyons and valleys, followed by dissection that created the small mesas and buttes, and later, formation of the steep escarpment marking the present-day northern highland margin. After valley dissection, mass wasting and eolian processes caused lateral retreat of mesas and buttes

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS1999

Upper Klamath Lake Basin nutrient-loading study: Assessment of historic flows in the Williamson and Sprague rivers

The Williamson River Basin, located in south-central Oregon, has a drainage area of approximately 3,000 square miles. The Sprague River, which flows into the Williamson River Basin, has a drainage area of 1,580 square miles. Together, the Williamson and Sprague Rivers supply about one-half of the inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Various statistical techniques, which included trend tests, double-mass curves, and two-sample tests, were used to detect significant changes in the precipitation-runoff relation for the Williamson and Sprague River Basins. Flows from these two rivers were compared with the precipitation and air temperature records collected at Klamath Falls to assess the effect of climate on flow variations. Most of the double-mass curves showed a major break in the slope of the curve occurring around 1950 and a smaller one near 1990. For the years 1930-50 and 1990-96, February through May flows were relatively lower in the Williamson River than in rivers in nearby basins, by an average of 25,000 acre-feet per year and 36,000 acre-feet per year, respectively, for the 4-month period. From 1950 through 1963, flows were generally higher in the Williamson River compared with the nearby rivers by an average of 38,000 acre-feet for the 4 months. In July through September of 1945-51, 1970-76, and 1992-96, flows were lower in the Williamson River than in the comparison rivers by an average of about 6,000 acre-feet for the 3-month period. Two-sample statistical tests of the annual flow data sets for the Williamson and Sprague Rivers showed a significant increase in the estimated population mean for the period 1951-96 compared to the estimated population mean for the period 1922-50. However, climate data, which included annual precipitation data from Klamath Falls, Crater Lake, and Medford, and annual air temperature data from Klamath Falls, all showed no significant difference between the two periods. During the past century, various human land-use activities, such as irrigation, grazing, drainage, and timber harvesting, may have had some impact on the hydrology within the Williamson River Basin. However, relating specific land-use activities to changes in flow is impossible to assess owing to the size and geologic complexity of the basin and to the paucity of historical land- and water-use data for local areas.

Oregon↗
USGS2007

Adapting to the reality of climate change at Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

The glaciers of Glacier National Park (GNP) are disappearing rapidly and likely will be gone by 2030. These alpine glaciers have been continuously present for approximately 7,000 years so their loss from GNP in another 25 years underscores the significance of current climate change. There are presently only 27 glaciers remaining of the 150 estimated to have existed when GNP was created in 1910. Mean annual temperature in GNP has increased 1.6°C during the past century, three times the global mean increase. The temperature increase has affected other parts of the mountain ecosystem, too. Snowpacks hold less water equivalent and melt 2+ weeks earlier in the spring. Forest growth rates have increased, alpine treelines have expanded upward and become denser, and subalpine meadows have been invaded by high elevation tree species. These latter responses can be mostly attributed to longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures. Ecosystem modeling of possible future changes in the GNP mountain environments suggest that increased tree growth rates and evapotranspiration will reduce soil moisture and streamflow. The drier forests, with more wood, will burn more frequently and with greater severity, leading to degradation in air quality and increased risk to people and infrastructure. Management of forest fires is an important issue in the arid western United States. In 2003, 13% of GNP’s 4,082 km 2 was burned in three large fires and numerous smaller fires. Managers can accomplish some of their goals, such as preserving threatened wildlife populations, by altering their management of fires. In 2003, intense efforts were successfully made to divert the fires away from valuable grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) habitat that contained huckleberry plants ( Vaccinium spp .) necessary to ensure bear survival through the winter.

Montana↗
USGS2013

2011 floods of the central United States

The Central United States experienced record-setting flooding during 2011, with floods that extended from headwater streams in the Rocky Mountains, to transboundary rivers in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, to the deep and wide sand-bedded lower Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of its mission, collected extensive information during and in the aftermath of the 2011 floods to support scientific analysis of the origins and consequences of extreme floods. The information collected for the 2011 floods, combined with decades of past data, enables scientists and engineers from the USGS to provide syntheses and scientific analyses to inform emergency managers, planners, and policy makers about life-safety, economic, and environmental-health issues surrounding flood hazards for the 2011 floods and future floods like it. USGS data, information, and scientific analyses provide context and understanding of the effect of floods on complex societal issues such as ecosystem and human health, flood-plain management, climate-change adaptation, economic security, and the associated policies enacted for mitigation. Among the largest societal questions is "How do we balance agricultural, economic, life-safety, and environmental needs in and along our rivers?" To address this issue, many scientific questions have to be answered including the following: * How do the 2011 weather and flood conditions compare to the past weather and flood conditions and what can we reasonably expect in the future for flood magnitudes? * What is the “natural” hydrology of these watersheds and how have they been changed? * How do rivers change during floods and what effects do they have on the natural and built environment: conversely, what effects do the natural and built environments have on rivers and floods? * Do floods contribute to the transport and fate of contaminants that affect human and ecosystem health? In an effort to help address these and other questions, USGS Professional Paper 1798 consists of independent but complementary chapters dealing with various scientific aspects of the 2011 floods in the Central United States.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2023

Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2017

Late Holocene eolian activity in the mineralogically mature Nebraska Sand Hills

The age of sand dunes in the Nebraska Sand Hills has been controversial, with some investigators suggesting a full-glacial age and others suggesting that they were last active in the late Holocene. New accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon ages of unaltered bison bones and organic-rich sediments suggest that eolian sand deposition occurred at least twice in the past 3000 14C yr B.P. in three widely separated localities and as many as three times in the past 800 14C yr at three other localities. These late Holocene episodes of eolian activity are probably the result of droughts more intense than the 1930s "Dust Bowl" period, based on independent Great Plains climate records from lake sediments and tree rings. However, new geochemical data indicate that the Nebraska Sand Hills are mineralogically mature. Eolian sands in Nebraska have lower K-feldspar (and K2O, Rb, and Ba) contents than most possible source sediments and lower K-feldspar contents than dunes of similar age in Colorado. The most likely explanation for mineralogical maturity is reduction of sand-sized K-feldspar to silt-sized particles via ballistic impacts due to strong winds over many cycles of eolian activity. Therefore, dunes of the Nebraska Sand Hills must have had a long history, probably extending over more than one glacial-interglacial cycle, and the potential for reactivation is high, with or without a future greenhouse warming. ?? 1997 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2010

First high-resolution stratigraphic column of the Martian north polar layered deposits

This study achieves the first high-spatial-resolution, layer-scale, measured stratigraphic column of the Martian north polar layered deposits using a 1m-posting DEM. The marker beds found throughout the upper North Polar Layered Deposits range in thickness from 1.6 m-16.0 m +/-1.4 m, and 6 of 13 marker beds are separated by ???25-35 m. Thin-layer sets have average layer separations of 1.6 m. These layer separations may account for the spectral-power-peaks found in previous brightness-profile analyses. Marker-bed layer thicknesses show a weak trend of decreasing thickness with depth that we interpret to potentially be the result of a decreased accumulation rate in the past, for those layers. However, the stratigraphic column reveals that a simple rhythmic or bundled layer sequence is not immediately apparent throughout the column, implying that the relationship between polar layer formation and cyclic climate forcing is quite complex.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1996

Ventilation changes in the northeast Pacific during the last deglaciation

Under present climate conditions, convection at high latitudes of the North Pacific is restricted to shallower depths than in the North Atlantic. To what extent this asymmetry between the two ocean basins was maintained over the past 20 kyr is poorly known because there are few unambiguous proxy records of ventilation from the North Pacific. We present new data for two sediment cores from the California margin at 800 and 1600 m depth to argue that the depth of ventilation shifted repeatedly in the northeast Pacific over the course of deglaciation. The evidence includes benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca, 18 O/ 16 O, and 13 C/ 12 C data as well as radiocarbon age differences between benthic and planktonic foraminifera. A number of features in the shallower of the two cores, including an interval of laminated sediments, are consistent with changes in ventilation over the past 20 kyr suggested by alternations between laminated and bioturbated sediments in the Santa Barbara Basin and the Gulf of California [ Keigwin and Jones , 1990; Kennett and Ingram , 1995; Behl and Kennett , 1996]. Data from the deeper of the two California margin cores suggest that during times of reduced ventilation at 800 m, ventilation was enhanced at 1600 m depth, and vice versa. This pronounced depth dependence of ventilation needs to be taken into account when exploring potential teleconnections between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗
USGS2024

Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline

As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern observations. Here, we provide geological insights into coral range expansions by reconstructing the composition of a Late Holocene-aged subfossil coral death assemblage on the southeast Florida reef tract and comparing it to modern reefs throughout the region. Our findings show that the Late Holocene coral assemblages were dominated by now critically endangered Acropora species between ~3500 and 1800 years before present, mirroring classic zonation patterns characteristic of healthy pre-1970s Caribbean reefs. In contrast, the modern reefs off southeast Florida are becoming increasingly dominated by stress-tolerant species like Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea despite modest expansions of Acropora cervicornis over the past several decades. Our results suggest that ongoing anthropogenic stressors, not present during the Late Holocene, are likely limiting the ability of modern higher latitude reefs in Florida to function as long-term climate refugia.

Florida↗
USGS2010

The Origins of C4 Grasslands: Integrating Evolutionary and Ecosystem Science

The evolution of the C 4 photosynthetic pathway from the ancestral C 3 pathway in grasses led to the establishment of grasslands in warm climates during the Late Miocene (8 to 3 million years ago). This was a major event in plant evolutionary history, and their high rates of foliage production sustained high levels of herbivore consumption. The past decade has seen significant advances in understanding C 4 grassland ecosystem ecology, and now a wealth of data on the geological history of these ecosystems has accumulated and the phylogeny of grasses is much better known. Edwards et al. (p. 587) review this multidisciplinary research area and attempt to synthesize emerging knowledge about the evolution of grass species within the context of plant and ecosystem ecology.

Science↗
USGS2010

Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas. Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk, Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even lesscertain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Human drivers, biophysical changes, and climatic variation affecting contemporary cropping proportions in the northern prairie of the U.S

Grassland to cropland conversion in the northern prairie of the United States has been a topic of recent land use change studies. Within this region more corn and soybeans are grown now (2017) than in the past, but most studies to date have not examined multi-decadal trends and the synergistic web of socio-ecological driving forces involved, opting instead for short-term analyses and easily targeted agents of change. This paper examines the coalescing of biophysical and socioeconomic driving forces that have brought change to the agricultural landscape of this region between 1980 and 2013. While land conversion has occurred, most of the region’s cropland in 2013 had been previously cropped by the early 1980s. Furthermore, the agricultural conditions in which crops were grown during those three decades have changed considerably because of non-biophysical alterations to production practices and changing agricultural markets. Findings revealed that human drivers played more of a role in crop change than biophysical changes, that blending quantitative and qualitative methods to tell a more complete story of crop change in this region was difficult because of the synergistic characteristics of the drivers involved, and that more research is needed to understand how farmers make crop choice decisions.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2021

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗