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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Understanding the effects of climate change via disturbance on pristine arctic lakes — Multitrophic level response and recovery to a 12-yr, low-level fertilization experiment

Effects of climate change-driven disturbance on lake ecosystems can be subtle; indirect effects include increased nutrient loading that could impact ecosystem function. We designed a low-level fertilization experiment to mimic persistent, climate change-driven disturbances (deeper thaw, greater weathering, or thermokarst failure) delivering nutrients to arctic lakes. We measured responses of pelagic trophic levels over 12 yr in a fertilized deep lake with fish and a shallow fishless lake, compared to paired reference lakes, and monitored recovery for 6 yr. Relative to prefertilization in the deep lake, we observed a maximum pelagic response in chl a (+201%), dissolved oxygen (DO, −43%), and zooplankton biomass (+88%) during the fertilization period (2001–2012). Other responses to fertilization, such as water transparency and fish relative abundance, were delayed, but both ultimately declined. Phyto- and zooplankton biomass and community composition shifted with fertilization. The effects of fertilization were less pronounced in the paired shallow lakes, because of a natural thermokarst failure likely impacting the reference lake. In the deep lake there was (a) moderate resistance to change in ecosystem functions at all trophic levels, (b) eventual responses were often nonlinear, and (c) postfertilization recovery (return) times were most rapid at the base of the food web (2–4 yr) while higher trophic levels failed to recover after 6 yr. The timing and magnitude of responses to fertilization in these arctic lakes were similar to responses in other lakes, suggesting indirect effects of climate change that modify nutrient inputs may affect many lakes in the future.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2005

Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change. To meet this challenge, mountain scientists increasingly are modeling the vast array of relationships that comprise ecosystem dynamics. Dynamic modeling can examine the interactions between land management strategies and climatic change to develop appropriate responses to future human demands on mountain systems. Modeling provides spatially and temporally explicit, quantified results that can be validated in the field, thus providing feedback to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Modeling results, particularly maps and other visual tools, also give a concrete dimension to our understanding of the scale and magnitude of potential future changes. Modeling alerts scientists and land managers to apparently counter-intuitive outcomes of ecosystem responses to climate change or management decisions. For instance, in an early modeling exercise for northwest Montana, USA, Running and Nemani (1991) found that streamflow in a warmer future climate decreased by 30% in the Swan Range even when precipitation was increased by 10% in a particular climate change scenario. This unexpected response was due to enhanced forest growth, and increased evapotranspiration, resulting from the earlier snowmelt and extended growing season. There is a rich legacy of models that address climate and weather, hydrology, forest growth (e.g. gap dynamics and succession), forest fires (e.g. fuel loading) and land cover change (cf. Bugmann et al., this volume). Much less common, however, are attempts to fully integrate models from various disciplines to create a robust system that adequately addresses the entire range of ecosystem dynamics. In addition, fine-resolution modeling of entire mountain ranges (i.e. regional ecosystem scale) is not as common as global or continental scale modeling or watershed/catchment scale modeling. However, this is the scale that is germane to policy decisions such as in the western US and Canada, i.e. in those areas that contain most of the mountainous terrain of North America. This paper describes our efforts to implement an integrated regional modeling approach while characterizing potential future responses of a mountain ecosystem to climate change. Our study area was Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana, USA. Glacier Park is a 4082 km” mountain wilderness that straddles the continental divide and contains over 150 summits of up to 3150 m elevation in the Lewis and Livingston mountain ranges.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Nature↗
USGS2020

Mapping climate change resistant vernal pools in the northeastern U.S.

Vernal pools are seasonal wetlands that provide important breeding habitat for a variety of amphibian species. As future climate projections indicate warmer growing seasons and earlier seasonal increases in evapotranspiration, some managers of vernal pools have expressed concern that pools may dry earlier in the season, potentially interfering with completion of amphibian life cycles. In this context, a subset of pools might function as hydrologic refugia by providing wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions, thus supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. This study used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 450 pools in the northeastern United States—located from West Virginia to Maine—to train machine-learning models for predicting the likelihood of pool inundation. Inputs to these models included pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and attributes of the landscapes in which pools were embedded. Predictions of pool wetness were generated on a daily time step from late April through late July using three short-term weather scenarios (dry, wet, and average) under historical climate conditions and four sets of downscaled climate projections (2050s and 2080s under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The modeling and inundation prediction process was replicated using four inundation thresholds on wetted area and depth. Model outputs can enable users to examine the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify subsets of pools that may be most likely to function as hydrologic refugia from changing climate conditions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
USGS2012

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Black Tern ( Chlidonias niger ), Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) and Sora ( Porzana carolina ), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

North Dakota;South Dakota;Minnesota;Iowa↗
USGS2018

Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors—information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Utah↗
USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California↗
USGS2012

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2010

Studies of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin: Connecting Community and Science Through a Unique Partnership

An exciting new partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) is yielding critical data for the assessment of climate change effects in the Yukon River Basin. The foundation of this partnership is a shared interest in the current and future water quality of the Yukon River and its relation to climate. The USGS began a landmark study of the Yukon River and its major tributaries in 2000. A key objective of this study is to establish a baseline dataset of water quality, which will serve as an important frame of reference to assess future changes in the basin that may result from a warmer climate.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Geomorphic responses of fluvial systems to climate change: A habitat perspective

Fluvial systems provide a variety of habitats that support thousands of species including many that are threatened or endangered. Moreover, these habitats, which range from aquatic and riparian to floodplain, are important for the variety of ecosystem services they provide. In addition to water temperature and streamflow change, geomorphic change is important and warrants consideration as one of the several potential threats to these habitats posed by climate change. The geomorphic response of fluvial systems to global warming in temperate environments, for example, caused by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods, is important because geomorphology is a primary determinant of habitat availability and quality. Possible geomorphic responses include increased erosion and (or) deposition in the river channel, riparian zone, and floodplain with associated habitat implications. Geomorphic changes caused by global warming can be beneficial (e.g., increased habitat complexity) or detrimental (e.g., mortality caused by scour or burial) to biota. The ability of a species to respond to and survive disturbances, including geomorphic changes, will depend on the nature of the disturbances and the sensitivity and adaptive capabilities of the species. Post-flood recovery often is rapid; however, for certain species (e.g., periphyton, macroinvertebrates), changes in community composition may persist. Increased flood frequency, sediment mobility, and associated geomorphic changes potentially will result in more frequent and persistent changes in habitat and community composition in the affected fluvial systems.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2022

Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (T min , T mean , T max ) and mean precipitation (P mean ) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2020

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. We used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. We compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2017

Introduction The year 2017 was a year of review and renewal for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). The Southeast, Northwest, Alaska, Southwest, and North Central CSCs’ 5-year summary review reports were released in 2017 and contain the findings of the external review teams led by the Cornell University Human Dimensions Research Unit in conjunction with the American Fisheries Society. The reports for the Pacific Islands, South Central, and Northeast CSCs are planned for release in 2018. The reviews provide an opportunity to evaluate aspects of the cooperative agreement, such as the effectiveness of the CSC in meeting project goals and assessment of the level of scientific contribution and achievement. These reviews serve as a way for the CSCs and NCCWSC to look for ways to recognize and enhance our network’s strengths and identify areas for improvement. The reviews were followed by the CSC recompetition, which led to new hosting agreements at the Northwest, Alaska, and Southeast CSCs. Learn more about the excellent science and activities conducted by the network centers in the 2017 annual report.

Open-File Report↗