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USGS2012

State of the Earth’s cryosphere at the beginning of the 21st century: Glaciers, global snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost and periglacial environments

This chapter is the tenth in a series of 11 book-length chapters, collectively referred to as “this volume,” in the series U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World. In the other 10 chapters, each of which concerns a specific glacierized region of Earth, the authors used remotely sensed images, primarily from the Landsat 1, 2, and 3 series of spacecraft, in order to analyze that glacierized region and to monitor changes in its glaciers. Landsat images, acquired primarily during the period 1972 through 1981, were used by an international team of glaciologists and other scientists to study the various glacierized regions and (or) to discuss related glaciological topics. In each glacierized region, the present distribution of glaciers within its geographic area is compared, wherever possible, with historical information about their past areal extent. The atlas provides an accurate regional inventory of the areal extent of glacier ice on our planet during the 1970s as part of an expanding international scientific effort to measure global environmental change on the Earth’s surface. However, this chapter differs from the other 10 in its discussion of observed changes in all four elements of the Earth’s cryosphere (glaciers, snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost) in the context of documented changes in all components of the Earth System. Human impact on the planet at the beginning of the 21st century is pervasive. The focus of Chapter A is on changes in the cryosphere and the importance of long-term monitoring by a variety of sensors carried on Earth-orbiting satellites or by a ground-based network of observatories in the case of permafrost. The chapter consists of five parts. The first part provides an introduction to the Earth System, including the interrelationships of the geosphere (cryosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere), the biosphere, climate processes, biogeochemical cycles, and the critically important hydrologic cycle, in which glacier ice is the second largest reservoir of water after the oceans. The second part assesses the state of glaciers in all of the glacierized regions of the planet, primarily as drawn in the other 10 chapters. It includes sections on ice cores and the climate record they contain, volumetric changes in glaciers, harnessing spaceborne sensors to measure changes in glaciers, and related topics. The third part summarizes trends in global snow cover. The fourth part summarizes long-term changes in area and thickness of floating ice, including polar sea ice and freshwater (lake and river) ice. The fifth part assesses the loss of permafrost and changes in periglacial environments at high latitudes and high altitudes.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2014

Origins and delineation of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and changes in the distribution of saltwater in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Intrusion of saltwater into parts of the shallow karst Biscayne aquifer is a major concern for the 2.5 million residents of Miami-Dade County that rely on this aquifer as their primary drinking water supply. Saltwater intrusion of this aquifer began when the Everglades were drained to provide dry land for urban development and agriculture. The reduction in water levels caused by this drainage, combined with periodic droughts, allowed saltwater to flow inland along the base of the aquifer and to seep directly into the aquifer from the canals. The approximate inland extent of saltwater was last mapped in 1995. An examination of the inland extent of saltwater and the sources of saltwater in the aquifer was completed during 2008–2011 by using (1) all available salinity information, (2) time-series electromagnetic induction log datasets from 35 wells, (3) time-domain electromagnetic soundings collected at 79 locations, (4) a helicopter electromagnetic survey done during 2001 that was processed, calibrated, and published during the study, (5) cores and geophysical logs collected from 8 sites for stratigraphic analysis, (6) 8 new water-quality monitoring wells, and (7) analyses of 69 geochemical samples. The results of the study indicate that as of 2011 approximately 1,200 square kilometers (km 2 ) of the mainland part of the Biscayne aquifer were intruded by saltwater. The saltwater front was mapped farther inland than it was in 1995 in eight areas totaling about 24.1 km 2 . In many of these areas, analyses indicated that saltwater had encroached along the base of the aquifer. The saltwater front was mapped closer to the coast than it was in 1995 in four areas totaling approximately 6.2 km 2 . The changes in the mapped extent of saltwater resulted from improved spatial information, actual movement of the saltwater front, or a combination of both. Salinity monitoring in some of the canals in Miami-Dade County between 1988 and 2010 indicated influxes of saltwater, with maximum salinities ranging from 1.4 to 32 practical salinity units (PSU) upstream of the salinity control structures. Time-series electromagnetic induction log data from monitoring wells G–3601, G–3608, and G–3701, located adjacent to the Biscayne, Snapper Creek, and Black Creek Canals, respectively, and upstream of the salinity control structures, indicated shallow influxes of conductive water in the aquifer that likely resulted from leakage of brackish water or saltwater from these canals. The determination that saltwater influxes were recent is supported by the similarity in the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope composition in samples from the Snapper Creek Canal, 1.6 kilometers (km) inland of a salinity control structure, and in samples from well G–3608, which is adjacent to the canal, as well as by the relative ages of the water sampled from well G–3608 and other wells open to the aquifer below the saltwater interface. Historical and recent salinity information from the Card Sound Road Canal, monitoring well FKS8 located adjacent to the canal, and the 2001 helicopter electromagnetic survey indicated that saltwater may occasionally leak from this canal as far inland as 15 km. This leakage may be prevented or reduced by a salinity control structure that was installed in May 2010. Saltwater also may have leaked from the Princeton Canal. Results of geochemical sampling and analysis indicate a close correspondence between droughts and saltwater intrusion. Tritium/helium-3 apparent (piston-flow) ages determined from samples of saltwater with chloride concentrations of about 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) or greater generally corresponded to a period during which droughts were frequent. Comparison of average daily air temperatures in Miami, Florida, with estimates of recharge temperatures determined from the dissolved gas composition in water samples indicated that saltwater likely entered the aquifer in April or early May when water levels are typically at their lowest during the year. Conversely, most of the samples of freshwater with chloride concentrations less than about 1,000 mg/L indicate recharge temperatures corresponding to air temperatures in mid to late May when rainfall and water levels in the aquifer increase, and the piston-flow ages of these samples correspond to wet years. The piston-flow ages of freshwater samples generally were younger than ages of samples of saltwater. Saltwater samples that were depleted in boron, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate, and enriched in calcium relative to the concentrations theoretically produced by freshwater/seawater mixing, generally were found to be associated with areas where saltwater had recently intruded. The calcium to (bicarbonate + sulfate) molar ratios (Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 )) of these samples generally were greater than 1. Saltwater samples from some of the monitoring wells, however, indicated little or no enrichment or depletion of these ions relative to the theoretical freshwater/seawater mixing line, and the Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 ) molar ratios of these samples generally were less than 1. Results indicated that aquifer materials are approaching equilibrium with seawater at these well locations.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Data compilation and assessment for water resources in Pennsylvania state forest and park lands

As a result of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (PaDCNR), available electronic data were compiled for Pennsylvania state lands (state forests and parks) to allow PaDCNR to initially determine if data exist to make an objective evaluation of water resources for specific basins. The data compiled included water-quantity and water-quality data and sample locations for benthic macroinvertebrates within state-owned lands (including a 100-meter buffer around each land parcel) in Pennsylvania. In addition, internet links or contacts for geographic information system coverages pertinent to water-resources studies also were compiled. Water-quantity and water-quality data primarily available through January 2007 were compiled and summarized for site types that included streams, lakes, ground-water wells, springs, and precipitation. Data were categorized relative to 35 watershed boundaries defined by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for resource-management purposes. The primary sources of continuous water-quantity data for Pennsylvania state lands were the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS). The USGS has streamflow data for 93 surface-water sites located in state lands; 38 of these sites have continuous-recording data available. As of January 2007, 22 of these 38 streamflow-gaging stations were active; the majority of active gaging stations have over 40 years of continuous record. The USGS database also contains continuous ground-water elevation data for 32 wells in Pennsylvania state lands, 18 of which were active as of January 2007. Sixty-eight active precipitation stations (primarily from the NWS network) are located in state lands. The four sources of available water-quality data for Pennsylvania state lands were the USGS, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP), and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission. The water-quality data, which were primarily collected after 1970, were summarized by categorizing the analytical data for each site into major groups (for example, trace metals, pesticides, major ions, etc.) for each type (streams, lakes, ground-water wells, and springs) of data compiled. The number of samples and number of detections for each analyte within each group also were summarized. A total of 410 stream sites and 205 ground-water wells in state lands had water-quality data from the available data sets, and these sites were well-distributed across the state. A total of 107 lakes and 47 springs in state lands had water-quality data from the available data sets, but these data types were not well-distributed across the state; the majority of water-quality data for lakes was in the western or eastern sections of the state and water-quality data for springs was primarily located in the central part of the Lower Susquehanna River Valley. The most common types of water-quality data collected were major ions, trace elements, and nutrients. Physical parameters, such as water temperature, stream discharge, or water level, typically were collected for most water-quality samples. Given the large database available from PaDEP for benthic macroinvertebrates, along with some data from other agencies, there is very good distribution of benthic-macroinvertebrate data for state lands. Benthic macroinvertebrate samples were collected at 1,077 locations in state lands from 1973 to 2006. Most (980 samples) of the benthic-macroinvertebrate samples were collected by PaDEP as part of the state assessment of stream conditions required by the Clean Water Act. Data compiled in this report can be used for various water-resource issues, such as basin-wide water-budget analysis, studies of ecological or instream flow, or water-quality assessments. The determination of an annual water budget in selected basins is best supported by the availab

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1998

Factors affecting Escherichia coli concentrations at Lake Erie public bathing beaches

The environmental and water-quality factors that affect concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water and sediment were investigated at three public bathing beachesEdgewater Park, Villa Angela, and Sims Parkin the Cleveland, Ohio metropolitan area. This study was done to aid in the determination of safe recreational use and to help water- resource managers assess more quickly and accurately the degradation of recreational water quality. Water and lake-bottom sediments were collected and ancillary environmental data were compiled for 41 days from May through September 1997. Water samples were analyzed for E. coli concentrations, suspended sediment concentrations, and turbidity. Lake- bottom sediment samples from the beach area were analyzed for E. coli concentrations and percent dry weight. Concentrations of E. coli were higher and more variable at Sims Park than at Villa Angela or Edgewater Park; concentrations were lowest at Edgewater Park. Time-series plots showed that short-term storage (less than one week) of E. coli in lake-bottom sediments may have occurred, although no evidence for long-term storage was found during the sampling period. E. coli concentrations in water were found to increase with increasing wave height, but the resuspension of E. coli from lake-bottom sediments by wave action could not be adequately assessed; higherwave heights were often associated with the discharge of sewage containing E. coli during or after a rainfall and wastewater-treatment plant overflow. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop models to predict recreational water quality at the in water. The related variables included turbidity, antecedent rainfall, antecedent weighted rainfall, volumes of wastewater-treatment plant overflows and metered outfalls (composed of storm-water runoff and combined-sewer overflows), a resuspension index, and wave heights. For the beaches in this study, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and the prswimmers were not included in the model because they were shown to be statistically unrelated to E. coli concentrations. From the several models developed, one model was chosen that accounted for 58 percent of the variability in E. coli concentrations. The chosen MLR model contained weighted categorical rainfall, beach-specific turbidity, wave height, and terms to correct for the different magnitudes of E. coli concentrations among the three beaches. For 1997, the MLR model predicted the recreational water quality as well as, and in some cases better than, antecedent E. coli concentrations (the current method). The MLR model improved the sensitivity of the prediction and the percentage of correct predictions over the current method; however, the MLR model predictions still erred to a similar degree as the current method with regard to false negatives. A false negative would allow swimming when, in fact, the bathing water standard was exceeded. More work needs to be done to validate the MLR model with data collected during other recreational seasons, especially during a season with a greater frequency and intensity of summer rains. Studies could focus on adding to the MLR model other environmental and water-quality variables that improve the predictive ability of the model. These variables might include concentrations of E. coli in deeper sediments outside the bathing area, the direction of lake currents, site-specific-rainfall amounts, time-of-day information on overflows and metered outfalls, concentrations of E. coli in treated wastewater-treatment plant effluents, and occurrences of sewage-line breaks. Rapid biological or chemical methods for determination of recreational water quality could also be used as variables in model refinements. Possible methods include the use of experimental rapid assay methods for determination of E. coli concentrations or other fecal indicators and the use of chemical tracers for fecal contamination, such as coprostanol (a degradation

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Updates to the regional groundwater-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1980–2013

A 21-layer three-dimensional transient groundwater-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was developed and calibrated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection to simulate groundwater-flow conditions during 1980–2013, incorporating average annual groundwater withdrawals and average annual groundwater recharge. This model is the third version of the New Jersey Coastal Plain regional groundwater-flow model that was initially developed as part of the USGS Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) program. The model simulates groundwater flow in 11 aquifers and 10 intervening confining units of the New Jersey Coastal Plain to provide a regional overview of groundwater conditions. Averaged groundwater withdrawal data for 1980 to 2013 were used in the model. The 11 aquifers in New Jersey are, from shallowest to deepest, the Holly Beach water-bearing zone and the confined Cohansey aquifer in Cape May County; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; the Atlantic City 800-foot sand; the Piney Point, Vincentown, and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers; the Englishtown aquifer system; and the upper, middle, and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy (PRM) aquifer system. The model was developed with the MODFLOW–2005 numerical code and the UCODE parameter estimation technique and calibrated using water-level and base-flow observations. A total of 3,453 water-level observations from 392 wells in New Jersey and 48 wells in Delaware from 1983 to 2013 were used in model calibration, which includes historical water-level trends for 29 wells in New Jersey during 1980–2013 presented in time-series hydrographs. In addition, derived observations also were included by calculating the vertical gradient at 33 pairs of nested observation wells in New Jersey, for a total of 210 observations. Changes in water levels over time were calculated for 134 wells in New Jersey and four wells in Delaware where water levels had varied substantially (approximately 10 ft) over the 30-year span of synoptic water-level measurements, for a total of 767 observations. A total of 1,485 base-flow observations in 47 surface-water basins in New Jersey from 1980 to 2013 were used in model calibration. Updates to the groundwater-flow model include the conversion to a fully three-dimensional model from the previous quasi-three-dimensional model. The new model will allow for potential future uses such as particle tracking or simulation of variable-density groundwater flow that could not be accomplished with earlier versions of the model. Spatially and temporally variable recharge estimated by using a soil-water balance model resulted in a spatially and temporally finer discretization. The Rio Grande water-bearing zone was added to the model as an aquifer layer to refine estimates of simulated flow in Atlantic and Cape May Counties, New Jersey. Hydrogeologic parameters were updated to include the confining units in New Jersey and corresponding hydrogeologic units in Delaware and eastern Maryland. The simulated water levels for the New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers were compared to water-level measurements made during 1980–2013. The average residual for 4,243 water-level observations for New Jersey (simulated water levels minus measured water levels) is 1.5 feet. The simulated water-level contours for the confined aquifers for 2013 were compared to potentiometric surfaces produced from water levels measured during 2013. Simulated water levels generally matched the 2013 potentiometric surfaces of the confined aquifers in the areas of large withdrawals. Hydrographs of wells in the confined Coastal Plain aquifers of New Jersey show that simulated water levels generally match the magnitude and seasonal variation of the observed water levels. Hydrographs of base flow for the 47 streamgaging stations in New Jersey indicate that most of the simulated and estimated data match reasonably well. Groundwater withdrawals are an important resource for water supply, agricultural, industrial, and commercial needs in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Groundwater withdrawals from the New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers have resulted in persistent, regionally extensive cones of depression in the Englishtown aquifer system and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Ocean and Monmouth Counties; Wenonah-Mount Laurel and upper, middle, and lower PRM aquifers in Camden County; and Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Atlantic County. Because hydrologic stresses and water-management needs change with time, periodic updates to the groundwater-flow model are required to provide current information about hydrologic conditions in the New Jersey Coastal Plain and to maintain its usefulness as a tool to manage water resources and develop water-resource strategies. The current updates will support the continued application of this model as a tool for evaluating the regional effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and of current and potential future water-management strategies on groundwater levels in the New Jersey Coastal Plain.

New Jersey Coastal Plain↗

USGS2008

Streamflow and Endangered Species Habitat in the Lower Isleta Reach of the Middle Rio Grande

San Acacia Dam is located in a reach of the Rio Grande that has been designated as critical habitat for two endangered species, the Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus) and the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus). Under present operations, the Rio Grande upstream from the dam is used to convey irrigation water to the Socorro main canal at San Acacia Dam. In order to increase operational flexibility and improve irrigation delivery efficiency, the 'Bernardo Siphon' has been proposed to intercept up to 150 cubic feet per second from the Lower San Juan Riverside Drain on the east side of the Rio Grande and transport it under the river into a drainage canal on the west side. Irrigation deliveries to the Socorro main canal would be conveyed by way of the drainage canal rather than the Rio Grande. The objective of this study was to provide the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) and other stakeholders with a tool to evaluate the effects of different operational modes of the Bernardo siphon on habitat for H. amarus and E. t. extimus in this section of river. We used a two-dimensional hydraulic simulation model to simulate hydraulic conditions for a range of discharges at three study sites in the Rio Grande between the proposed siphon location and San Acacia Dam. Suitable habitat characteristics were defined for H. amarus by consensus of a panel of experts and for E. t. extimus on the basis of a study conducted in 2003 by BOR. Habitat suitability maps for each targeted life stage and simulated discharge were constructed using a Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) and the results compiled into tables relating discharge to areas of suitable habitat. A separate analysis was conducted to calculate an index of connectivity among habitat patches at low flows. A hydrologic model was constructed to synthesize flows, by reach, without the siphon, which was used as a baseline for comparison with similarly-synthesized discharges with the siphon under different operating rules. Results from the hydrologic time series were combined with the discharge-habitat relations to develop habitat time series models, statistics, and scoring metrics for comparisons of alternative rules of operation for the Bernardo siphon. Suitable habitat for H. amarus was defined as areas having suitable hydraulic conditions alone and as areas having suitable hydraulics in association with large woody debris. Suitable hydraulic habitat for adults was maximized at discharges between 40 and 80 cubic feet per second, and declined rapidly at discharges larger than 150 cubic feet per second. When large woody debris was included in the definition of suitable habitat, discharges between 40 and 200 cubic feet per second provided maximum suitable habitat for adults. Juvenile hydraulic habitat was maximized at discharges between 20 and 80 cubic feet per second, and hydraulic habitat associated with large woody debris was largest at flows between 40 and 150 cubic feet per second. Nesting habitat area for E. t. extimus increased monotonically at discharges larger than 5 ft3/s, but decreased rapidly below that flow.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Effects of Iron Gate Dam discharge and other factors on the survival and migration of juvenile coho salmon in the lower Klamath River, northern California, 2006-09

Current management of the Klamath River includes prescribed minimum discharges intended partly to increase survival of juvenile coho salmon during their seaward migration in the spring. To determine if fish survival was related to river discharge, we estimated apparent survival and migration rates of yearling coho salmon in the Klamath River downstream of Iron Gate Dam. The primary goals were to determine if discharge at Iron Gate Dam affected coho salmon survival and if results from hatchery fish could be used as a surrogate for the limited supply of wild fish. Fish from hatchery and wild origins that had been surgically implanted with radio transmitters were released into the Klamath River slightly downstream of Iron Gate Dam at river kilometer 309. Tagged fish were used to estimate apparent survival between, and passage rates at, a series of detection sites as far downstream as river kilometer 33. Conclusions were based primarily on data from hatchery fish, because wild fish were only available in 2 of the 4 years of study. Based on an information-theoretic approach, apparent survival of hatchery and wild fish was similar, despite differences in passage rates and timing, and was lowest in the 54 kilometer (km) reach between release and the Scott River. Models representing the hypothesis that a short-term tagging- or handling-related mortality occurred following release were moderately supported by data from wild fish and weakly supported by data from hatchery fish. Estimates of apparent survival of hatchery fish through the 276 km study area ranged from 0.412 (standard error [SE] 0.048) to 0.648 (SE 0.070), depending on the year, and represented an average of 0.790 per 100 km traveled. Estimates of apparent survival of wild fish through the study area were 0.645 (SE 0.058) in 2006 and 0.630 (SE 0.059) in 2009 and were nearly identical to the results from hatchery fish released on the same dates. The data and models examined supported positive effects of water temperature, river discharge, and fish weight as factors affecting apparent survival in the Klamath River upstream of the confluence with the Shasta River, but few of the variables examined were supported as factors affecting survival farther downstream. The effect of water temperature on apparent survival upstream of the Shasta River was greater than Iron Gate Dam discharge, which was greater than fish weight. The estimated effect on apparent survival between release and the Shasta River with each 1degree Celsius increase in water temperature was 1.4 times the effect of a 100 cubic feet per second increase in Iron Gate Dam discharge and 2.5 times the effect of a 1 gram increase in fish weight, and the effects of discharge and weight diminished at higher water temperatures up to the 17.91 degrees Celsius maximum present in the data examined. The rate of passage at the detection site near the confluence with the Shasta River was primarily affected by date of release, and water temperature was the only factor supported at the site near the confluence with the Scott River. Passage rates at sites downstream of the Scott River were affected by several of the variables examined, but the estimated effects were small and often imprecise. Results from this study indicate that discharge at Iron Gate Dam has a positive effect on apparent survival of yearling coho salmon in the Klamath River upstream of the Shasta River, but the effects are smaller than those of water temperature and are mediated by it. The results also support the use of hatchery fish as surrogates for wild fish in studies of apparent survival, but the available evidence suggests that study fish should be released well upstream of the area of interest, due to short-term differences in survival and migration behavior of hatchery and wild fish after release.

California↗

USGS2012

Archive of single beam and swath bathymetry data collected nearshore of the Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, from West Ship Island, Mississippi, to Dauphin Island, Alabama: Methods and data report for USGS Cruises 08CCT01 and 08CCT02, July 2008, and 09CCT03 and 09CCT04, June 2009

During the summers of 2008 and 2009 the USGS conducted bathymetric surveys from West Ship Island, Miss., to Dauphin Island, Ala., as part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility project. The survey area extended from the shoreline out to approximately 2 kilometers and included the adjacent passes (fig. 1). The bathymetry was primarily used to create a topo-bathymetric map and provide a base-level assessment of the seafloor following the 2005 hurricane season. Additionally, these data will be used in conjunction with other geophysical data (chirp and side scan sonar) to construct a comprehensive geological framework of the Mississippi Barrier Island Complex. The culmination of the geophysical surveys will provide baseline bathymetry necessary for scientists to define and interpret seafloor habitat for this area and for scientists to predict future geomorpholocial changes of the islands with respect to climate change, storm impact, and sea-level rise. Furthermore, these data provide information for feasibility of barrier island restoration, particularly in Camille Cut, and for the preservation of historical Fort Massachusetts. For more information refer to http://ngom.usgs.gov/gomsc/mscip/index.html. Since bathymetric surveys have often been conducted for navigational purposes, soundings have traditionally been referenced to a water level datum using tide gages and tide models. Bathymetric measurements referenced to a Global Positioning System (GPS) is a more accurate way of representing water depth and has been implemented in the acquisition and processing procedures for these datasets. Previous single-beam bathymetric studies performed at the USGS Center for Coastal and Marine Science have successfully referenced bathymetric measurements to GPS (DeWitt and others, 2007; Hansen 2008 and 2009). The 2008-2009 bathymetry surveys were conducted as a test to (1) develop acquisition and processing technology utilizing both single beam and swath bathymetry survey methods together, (2) reference both types of measurements to GPS rather than water level, and (3) compare the differences between methods in acquisition and processing. Results of the survey are explained in greater detail within this report. To acquire suitable coverage of the study area in a limited time frame, the seafloor-elevation survey was conducted using three techniques: single-beam bathymetry, interferometric swath bathymetry, and a walking kinematic survey of the island shorelines. All three techniques utilized GPS measurements. Implementation of these techniques was executed concurrently yet independently aboard two research vessels: the RV Survey Cat , a 26-foot (ft) shallow-draft Glacier Bay Coastal Runner, and the 50-ft RV G.K. Gilbert . A portable push buggy with a rigid antenna mount served as the platform for the kinematic shoreline survey. Data from each survey technique was post-processed and edited independently with proper inclusion of the differentially processed external navigation files. The x,y,z components from each method were then combined and the two survey years (2008 and 2009) were merged into one dataset. The 2008 bathymetry data were processed at the USGS Center for Coastal and Marine Science in St. Petersburg, Fla., and the 2009 bathymetry data were processed at the USGS Coastal and Marine Science Center located in Woods Hole, Mass. This report serves as an archive of the processed single beam and interferometric swath bathymetry, outlines the methodology, and reports the results. Data products herein include gridded and interpolated digital depth surfaces, and x,y,z data products for both single beam and interferometric swath bathymetry. Additional files include trackline maps, navigation files, geographic information system (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Scanned images of the handwritten FACS logs and digital FACS logs are also provided as PDF files. Refer to the Acronyms page for description of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report or hold the cursor over an acronym for a pop-up explanation. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 08CCT01 indicates that the data were collected in 2008 for the Coastal Change and Transport (CCT) study and the data were collected during the first (01) field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. See the digital FACS equipment log for details about the acquisition equipment used. Raw datasets are stored digitally at the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center and processed systematically using Novatel's GrafNav version 7.6, SANDS version 3.7, SEA SWATH plus version 3.06.04.03, CARIS HIPS AND SIPS version 3.6, and ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3.1. For more information on processing refer to the Equipment and Processing page. Chirp seismic data were also collected during these surveys and are archived separately.

Mississippi;Alabama↗

USGS2017

Guidance documents: Continued support to improve operations of fish hatcheries and field sites to reduce the impact or prevent establishment of New Zealand Mudsnails and other invasive mollusks

This project tested and revised a risk assessment/management tool authored by Moffitt and Stockton designed to provide hatchery biologists and others a structure to measure risk and provide tools to control, prevent or eliminate invasive New Zealand mudsnails (NZMS) and other invasive mollusks in fish hatcheries and hatchery operations. The document has two parts: the risk assessment tool, and an appendix that summarizes options for control or management. The framework of the guidance document for risk assessment/hatchery tool combines approaches used by the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) process with those developed by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, in the Tri-National Risk Assessment Guidelines for Aquatic Alien Invasive Species. The framework approach for this attached first document assesses risk potential with two activities: probability of infestation and consequences of infestation. Each activity is treated equally to determine the risk potential. These two activities are divided into seven basic elements that utilize scientific, technical, and other relevant information in the process of the risk assessment. To determine the probability of infestation four steps are used that have scores reported or determined and averaged. This assessment follows a familiar HACCP process to assess pathways of entry, entry potential, colonization potential, spread potential. The economic, environmental and social consequences are considered as economic impact, environmental impact, and social and cultural influences. To test this document, the Principal Investigator worked to identify interested hatchery managers through contacts at regional aquaculture meetings, fish health meetings, and through the network of invasive species managers and scientists participating in the Western Regional Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species and the 100th Meridian Initiative's Columbia River Basin Team, and the Western New Zealand Mudsnail Conference in Seattle. Targeted hatchery workshops were conducted with staff at Dworshak National Fish Hatchery Complex (ID), Similkameen Pond, Oroville WA, and Ringold Springs State Hatchery (WA). As a result of communications with hatchery staff, invasive species managers, and on site assessments of hatchery facilities, the document was modified and enhanced. Additional resources were added to keep it up to date. The result is a more simplified tool that can lead hatchery or management personnel through the process of risk assessment and provide an introduction to the risk management and communication process. In addition to the typical HACCP processes, this tool adds steps to rate and consider uncertainty and the weight of evidence regarding options and monitoring results . Uncertainty of outcome exists in most tools that can be used to control or prevent NZMS or other invasive mollusks from infesting an area. In additional this document emphasizes that specific control tools and plans must be tailored to each specific setting to consider the economic, environmental and social influences. From the testing and evaluation process, there was a strong recognition that a number of control and prevention tools previously suggested and reported in the literature from laboratory and small scale trials may not be compatible with regional and national regulations, economic constraints, social or cultural constraints, engineering or water chemistry characteristics of each facility. The options for control are summarized in the second document, Review of Control Measures for Hatcheries Infested with NZMS (Appendix A) that provides sources for additional resources and specific tools, and guidance regarding the feasibility and success of each approach. This tool also emphasizes that management plans need to be adaptive and incorporate oversight from professionals familiar with measuring risks of fish diseases, and treatments (e.g. the fish health practitioners and water quality and effluent management teams). Finally, with such a team, the adaptive management approach must be ongoing, and become a regular component of hatchery operations. Although it was the intent that this two part document would be included as part of the revised National Management and Control Plan for the NZMS proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and others, it is provided as a stand-alone document.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS2022

Assessing the distribution and habitat needs of the Least Darter and sympatric species of the Ozark and Arbuckle Mountain ecoregions

Limited information is known about factors driving the distribution of Least Darter in Oklahaoma. The Least Darter occurs in the Ozark Highland and Arbuckle Uplift ecoregions of Oklahoma which represent the southern extent of its range. Least Darter was historically recorded in Oklahoma from groundwater-fed streams. Our study objectives were to determine the distribution of Least Darter and a subset of congeners across the two ecoregions of Oklahoma and assess factors driving patch occupancy of Least Darter at a fine spatial scale. We used temporally replicated snorkel surveys conducted in July through October 2018-2019 to determine occupany by Least Darter. We snorkeled and seined for four species in each reach including two life stages of Smallmouth Bass (subadult and adult). We sampled 153 sites (i.e., riffle-pool complexes) nested within 61 stream reaches (i.e., 200-500-m long) in the Arbuckle Uplift and Ozark Highland ecoregions. Detection probability was similar between ecoregions. Least Darter was detected at more sites when snorkeling compared to seining (24 versus 18). Smallmouth Bass, Redspot Chub and Southern Redbelly Dace were typically 2-3 times more likely to be detected by snorkeling than by seining. We found relationships between occupancy and habitat parameters that were both shared among species but also species-specific. Least Darter occurrence probability in the Ozark Highlands was lower than in the Arbuckle Uplift. Occurrence probability was higher for subadult Smallmouth Bass and Southern Redbelly Dace in 2018 compared to 2019. Occurrence probabilities of both Least Darter and Southern Redbelly Dace were higher in cooler habitat patches. Southern Redbelly Dace was negatively associated with a higher proportion of pool habitat across a reach. Lastly, subadult Smallmouth Bass and Redspot Chub were more likely to occur in deeper pools and in larger streams (i.e., drainage area). We sampled one study reach (~150-m long with shallow riffles or a waterfall on each end) in the Arbuckle Uplift (winter and summer sampling) and Ozark Highland (winter sampling) ecoregions to determine fine-scale habitat selection during the thermally harsh seasons. We developed transects across the reaches to quantify depth, velocity, substrate, cover and water temperature. We found Least Darter used higher water column velocities and shallower water depths with little vegetation during the winter. The average water depth used was similar during summer and winter (~ 20 cm deep). Least Darter used denser vegetation during the summer and tended to avoid coarse substrates in both seasons. If the conservation of Least Darter is a management goal, actions to mitigate increasing stream water temperatures (e.g., protection of springs and riparian corridors) and protecting stream morphologies that facilitate species separations (i.e., allow for a wide range of water depth and velocities) may be beneficial (e.g., fencing cattle from streams, promoting natural bankful flows during spring)

Oklahoma↗

USGS2016

Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Conference of research on the Colorado Plateau

Introduction The Colorado Plateau is a physiographic region that encompasses 330,000 square kilometers in parts of four states in the southwestern United States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona). Known for its high deserts, the Colorado Plateau also includes isolated mountains, high plateaus, and rugged canyons. Not only is the region topographically diverse, but geologically, biologically, and culturally diverse as well. The landscape is managed by Federal entities including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Forest Service; Tribal nations including the Navajo Nation, Kaibab Paiute, Mountain Ute, Southern Ute, Hopi, Zuni, Hualapai, Havasupai, and White Mountain Apache Tribes; State land and wildlife management agencies; and privately owned holdings, creating complex interactions and management challenges. Population growth, increased tourism to Federal and State lands, and energy development have increased water demands and altered land-use patterns, and these changes have emerged as management challenges facing the people working and living in the region. Climate change, particularly the ongoing drought, has exacerbated the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other stressors such as invasive species. As managers seek solutions to the challenges facing the region’s natural and cultural resources, the Biennial Conference of Science and Management of the Colorado Plateau has become an important venue for exchanging information about emerging management concerns and recent scientific research. Each biennial conference has sought to promote discussion, information sharing, and productive communication among the managers, scientists, students, administrators, tribal representatives, and others who attend the conference with the goal of enhancing the use of the best available science to manage the region’s incomparable natural and cultural resources. The publication and dissemination of a conference proceedings series expands the reach of the conference beyond those people in attendance and creates a record on the research presented. The idea of producing a conference proceedings, and its subsequent publication, first occurred in 1993 following the first biennial conference in 1991. A published volume of contributed papers has followed each subsequent biennial conference, including this volume. The venue for publishing proceedings has changed over the years and has included the National Park Service, the Government Printing Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Arizona Press. Recently, van Riper and others (2015) published a compilation of the abstracts from the 11 previous conference proceedings. Collectively, the proceedings highlight approximately 25 years of natural- and cultural-resources research, promoting the integration of research with resource management across the Colorado Plateau. This volume is freely downloadable by the public, thereby further expanding the influence of this conference beyond the Colorado Plateau. The 12th Biennial Conference held in Flagstaff, Arizona, from September 16 to 19, 2013, covered a range of topics in the physical, biological, and socio-cultural sciences. The conference was organized and hosted by Northern Arizona University’s ( NAU) Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, and the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Financial and in-kind support was provided by a wide range of organizations including the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Grand Canyon Trust, Colorado Plateau Research Station, and various NAU entities. NAU sponsors include the Landscape Conservation Initiative, School of Forestry, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Office of the Provost, and Office of the Vice President of Research. Contributors to these proceedings include researchers and managers from Federal, State, and Tribal governments, universities, private entities, and non-profit organizations. In this regard, this conference has wide-ranging support and participation among private and public entities involved in the science and management of natural resources on the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2020

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates at defined frequencies and durations for nontidal streams in Delaware

Reliable estimates of the magnitude of peak flows in streams are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water conveyance structures. In addition, reliable estimates of the magnitude of low flows at defined frequencies and durations are needed for meeting regulatory requirements, quantifying base flows in streams and rivers, and evaluating time of travel and dilution of toxic spills. This report, in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation and the Delaware Geological Survey, presents methods for estimating the magnitude of peak flows and low flows at defined frequencies and durations on nontidal streams in Delaware, at locations both monitored by streamflow-gage sites and ungaged. Methods are presented for estimating (1) the magnitude of peak flows for return periods ranging from 2 to 500 years (50-percent to 0.2-percent annual-exceedance probability), and (2) the magnitude of low flows as applied to 7-, 14-, and 30-consecutive day low-flow periods with recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 20 years (50-, 10-, and 5-percent annual non-exceedance probabilities). These methods are applicable to watersheds that exhibit a full range of development conditions in Delaware. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that allows users to easily obtain peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for user-selected locations in Delaware. Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for ungaged sites are obtained using statistical regression analysis through a process known as regionalization, where information from a group of streamflow-gage sites within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the same region. Ninety-four streamflow-gage sites in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of nonregulated annual peak-flow data were used for the peak-flow regression analysis, a subset of the 121 sites for which peak-flow estimates were computed. These sites included both continuous-record streamflow-gage sites as well as partial record sites. Forty-five streamflow-gage sites with at least 10 years of nonregulated low-flow data available were used for the low-flow regression analyses, a subset of the 68 sites for which low-flow estimates were computed. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates using the recent Bulletin 17C guidelines that incorporate the Expected Moments Algorithm with (2) regional estimates of peak-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations and regional skew derived from sites with records greater than or equal to 35 years. Example peak-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Estimates for low-flow gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station low-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and low-flow estimates with (2) regional estimates of low-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations. Example low-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. A total of 54 sites in the Coastal Plain region were used to develop peak-flow regressions for the region and 40 sites were used for the Piedmont region. Similarly, 24 sites were used for low-flow regression equation development in the Coastal Plain, with 21 in the Piedmont. Peak and low-flow site inclusion in the Coastal Plain tended to be more restricted with tidal influence and ranges of basin characteristics, including drainage area, limiting regression equation development and application. Regional regression equations for peak flows and low flows, as applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces in Delaware, are presented. Peak-flow regression equations used variables that quantified drainage area, basin slope, percent area with well-drained soils, percent area with poorly drained soils, impervious area, and percent area of surface water storage in estimating peak-flow estimates, whereas low-flow regression equations used only drainage area and percent poorly drained soils in the estimation of low flows. Average standard errors for peak-flow regressions tended to be lower than those for low- flow regressions, with lower errors in the Piedmont region for both peak- and low-flow regressions. For peak-flow estimates, a sensitivity analysis of Piedmont regression equation estimates to changes in impervious area is also presented. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are discussed, including (1) the availability and description of 32 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites and inclusion in or exclusion from the regional analysis; (3) regional skew analysis and determination of regression regions; (4) sample adjustments and removal of sites owing to regulation and redundancy; and (5) a brief comparison of peak- and low-flow estimates at gages used in previous studies.

Delaware↗

USGS2021

Geohydrologic and water-quality characterization of a fractured-bedrock test hole in an area of Marcellus Shale gas development, Sullivan County, Pennsylvania

The stratigraphy, water-bearing zones, and quality of groundwater were characterized in a 1,400-ft-deep test hole drilled during 2013 in fractured bedrock in Sullivan County, Pa., by collection and analysis of measurements made during drilling, geophysical logs, and depth-specific hydraulic tests and water samples. The multidisciplinary characterization of the test hole was a cooperative effort between the Pennsylvania Department of Natural Resources, Bureau of Geological Survey (BGS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The study provided information to aid the bedrock mapping of the Laporte 7.5-minute quad-rangle by BGS to help quantify the depth and character of fresh and saline groundwater in an area of shale-gas exploration (described in this report), which could help gas operators protect groundwater resources. The Laporte test hole was drilled with air-hammer methods in an upland setting in the headwaters of Loyalsock Creek in the Glaciated High Plateau section of the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province. Bedrock residuum and till were penetrated from land surface to 8.5 ft, the Huntley Mountain Formation of Mississippian and Devonian age was penetrated from 8.5 to 540 ft, and the Catskill Formation of Devonian age was penetrated from 540 to 1,400 ft. Fractures, determined from optical televiewer, acoustic televiewer, and video logs, were commonly encountered to 200 ft bls (below land surface), then decreased exponentially with depth, except at a highly fractured zone from 637 to 644 ft bls. Most fractures were along bedding planes and had a strike of about 243 degrees and dip about 4 degrees to the northwest, consistent with the test-hole location on the north limb of the Muncy Creek anticline. Few fractures were noted below 650 ft. The depths of fresh and saline water-bearing fracture zones were identified in the test hole by geophysical-log analysis and were verified by pumping samples from zones isolated with packers and by collecting samples in the open hole with a wire-line point sampler. Six water-bearing zones associated with single or multiple fractures were identified at depths of 130–135, 180, 267–275, 425, 637–644, and 1,003 ft bls. Under ambient conditions, fresh water entered the hole from fractures at 130-135 and 180 ft bls, flowed downward and exited at fractures from 267–275, 425, and 637–644 ft. When pumped at 16.2 gal/min, most of the water from the open test hole was contributed from the fracture at 180 ft bls. Transmissivity, estimated from analysis of the specific-capacity data and flowmeter logs, is about 850 ft 2 /d for the entire open hole, and about 60 percent of the transmissivity is contributed from the fracture zone at 180 ft bls. The hydraulic heads in the deep water-bearing zones at 425 and 637–644 ft were about 100 ft lower than hydraulic heads in shallow water-bearing zones at 180 ft bls and above, indicating a large downward vertical hydraulic gradient. Water samples pumped from fracture zones isolated by packers at and above the water-bearing zone at 450 ft bls were fresh with dissolved-solids contents of 105 mg/L or less. The sample isolated at 637–644 ft bls was probably affected by leakage around packers, but the specific-conductance samples collected during drilling that were believed to be representa-tive of the fracture zone at 637–644 ft bls indicated slightly saline water. Below the 637–644 ft zone, a flowmeter log in the open hole did not detect any vertical flow, and the temperature log approached the geothermal gradient, indicating little ambient fluid flow and minimal fracture transmissivity below this depth. A petrophysical-log analysis using estimates of formation water resistivity from Archie’s Equation indicated an apparent transition from fresh to saline water in the sandstones occurs between 450 to 900 ft bls, with saline water indicated below 900 ft. Small seeps of saline water were delineated at 958, 989, and 1,003 ft bls by a time series of specific-conductance logs, and a discrete-point water sample at 990 ft bls with total dissolved-solids concentration of 19,900 mg/L verified that highly saline water was present below 900 ft bls. Occurrence of saline water at a depth of about 900 ft bls is below altitude of streams within 3 to 5 miles of the test hole but is about 930 ft above the altitude at the mouth of Loyalsock Creek where is enters the West Branch Susquehanna River at Montours-ville, Pa. The depth to saline water in this test hole is close to depths estimated at two other deep test holes drilled by the BGS in upland settings in Bradford and Tioga Counties in north-ern Pennsylvania. The saline water from 990 ft bls had a chemical composition similar to Appalachian Basin brines that had been diluted with fresh water. Predominant ions in the saline water were sodium, chloride, and calcium. Trace constituents of strontium, bromide, barium, lithium, and molybdenum were all more than 5,000 times greater than in freshwater samples from 167 or 270 ft bls. Methane concentration in the saline water sample from 990 ft was 120 mg/L. The concentration ratios of methane to higher-chain hydrocarbon gases and isotopic ratios of 13 C/ 12 C and 2 H/ 1 H of methane indicate that the gases are likely of thermogenic origin. In the sample from 990 ft bls, the 13 C/ 12 C of methane was less negative (-34.81 per mil) than 13 C/ 12 C of ethane (-37.1 per mil). Isotopic reversals such as this are generally found in gases from rocks older than the Catskill Formation, so its recognition in a natural upland setting at relatively shallow depth could be important when interpreting isotopic results to identify the origin of stray gas in the area.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2006

Development and application of a screening model for simulating regional ground-water flow in the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin

A series of databases and an accompanying screening model were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, to better understand the regional ground-water-flow system and its relation to stream drainage in the St. Croix River Basin. The St. Croix River and its tributaries drain about 8,000 square miles in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The databases contain information for the entire St. Croix River Basin pertaining to well logs, lithology, thickness of lithologic groups, ground-water levels, streamflow, and well pumpage. Maps and generalized cross sections created from the compiled data show the lithologic groups, extending from the water table to the crystalline bedrock, through which ground water flows. These lithologic groups are: fine-grained unconsolidated deposits; coarse-grained unconsolidated deposits; sandstone bedrock; carbonate bedrock; and other bedrock lithologies including shale, siltstone, conglomerate, and igneous intrusions. The steady-state screening model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with transmissivity zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups, and with recharge zones that correspond to general areas of high or low evapotranspiration. The model includes representation of second- and higher-order streams and municipal and other high-capacity production wells. The analytic-element model code GFLOW was used to simulate the regional ground-water flow, the water-table surface across the St. Croix River Basin, and base-flow contributions from ground water to streams. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the stream network to the St. Croix River. The parameter-estimation inverse model UCODE was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match over 5,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 22 streamflow-gaging stations. Results from the calibrated screening model show ground-water contributing areas for selected stream reaches within the basin. The delineation of these areas is useful to water-resource managers concerned with protection of fisheries and other resources. The model results also identify the areas of the basin where ground-water travel time from the water table to streams and wells is relatively short (less than 50 years). Ninety percent of the simulated ground-water pathlines require travel times between 3 and 260 years. The median pathline distance traversed and the median pathline velocity were 1.7 mi and 177 ft/y, respectively. It is important to recognize the limitations of this screening model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale (hundreds to thousands of feet) flow systems associated with minor water bodies are neglected, and as a result, the model is not useful for simulating typical site-specific problems. Despite its limitations, the model serves as a framework for understanding the regional pattern of ground-water flow and as a starting point for a generation of more targeted and detailed ground-water models that would be needed to address emerging water-supply and water-quality concerns in the St. Croix River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Flood-inundation maps for the lower Pawcatuck River in Westerly, Rhode Island, and Stonington and North Stonington, Connecticut

A series of 11 digital flood-inundation maps was developed for a 5.5-mile reach of the lower Pawcatuck River in Westerly, Rhode Island, and Stonington and North Stonington, Connecticut, by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Town of Westerly, Rhode Island, and the Rhode Island Office of Housing and Community Development. The coverage of the maps extends from downstream from the Ashaway River inflow at the State Border between Hopkinton and Westerly, Rhode Island, and North Stonington, Connecticut, to about 500 feet (ft) downstream from the U.S. Route 1/Broad Street bridge on the State border between Westerly, Rhode Island, and Stonington, Connecticut. A one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model created and calibrated for an ongoing (2018) Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study for New London County, Connecticut and Washington County, Rhode Island was updated for this study. The hydraulic model reflects the removal of the White Rock dam during 2015–16, and was calibrated using the stage-discharge relation at the USGS Pawcatuck River at Westerly, Rhode Island, streamgage (01118500) and documented high-water marks from the March 30, 2010, flood, which had a peak flow slightly greater than the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floodflow. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for 11 flood stages at 1-ft intervals referenced to the USGS Pawcatuck River at Westerly, Rhode Island, streamgage (01118500) and ranging from 6.0 ft (3.32 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988), which is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood category “action stage,” to 16.0 ft (13.32 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988), which is the maximum stage of the stage-discharge relation at the streamgage and exceeds the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood category “major flood stage” of 11.0 ft. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a 1.0-ft vertical accuracy to create flood-inundation maps. The flood-inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to 11 selected flood stages at the streamgage. The flood-inundation maps depict only riverine flooding and do not depict any tidal backwater or coastal storm surge that could occur in the lower part of the river reach. The flood-inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation . Near-real-time stages and discharges at the Pawcatuck River streamgage can be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ . The National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service provides flood forecast of stage for this site (WSTR1) at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . The availability of flood-inundation maps referenced to current and forecasted water levels at the USGS Pawcatuck River at Westerly, Rhode Island streamgage (01118500) can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during flood events.

Connecticut, Rhode Island↗

USGS2005

Crystalline-rock ejecta and shocked minerals of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure, USGS-NASA Langley core, Hampton, Virginia, with supplemental constraints on the age of impact

The USGS-NASA Langley corehole at Hampton , Va., was drilled 2000 as the first in a series of new coreholes drilled in the late Eocene Chesapeake Bay impact structure to gain a comprehensive understanding of its three-dimensional character. This understanding is important for assessing ground-water resources in the region, as well as for learning about marine impacts on Earth. We studied crystalline-rock ejecta and shock-metamorphosed minerals from the Langley core to determine what they reveal about the geology of crystalline rocks beneath the Atlantic Coastal Plain and how those rocks were affected by the impact . An unusual polymict diamicton, informally called the Exmore beds (upper Eocene), is 33.8 meters (m; 110.9 feet (ft)) thick and lies at a depth of 269.4 to 235.65 m (884.0 to 773.12 ft) in the core . This matrix-supported sedimentary deposit contains clasts of Tertiary and Cretaceous sediment (ranging up to boulder size) and sparse pebbles of crystalline rock . The matrix consists of muddy sand that contains abundant quartz grains and minor glauconite and potassium feldspar. Significantly, the sandy matrix of the Exmore beds contains sparse quartz grains (0.1 to 0.3 millimeter (0.004 to 0.012 inch) in diameter) that contain multiple sets of intersecting planar deformation features formerly referred to as shock lamellae. As many as five different sets have been observed in some quartz grains. Planar deformation features also occur in quartz grains in reworked crystalline-rock clasts in the Exmore beds. Such grains are clearly of shock-metamorphic origin. The presence of these features indicates that the quartz grains have experienced pressures greater than 6 gigapascals (GPa) and strain rates greater than 10 6 /second. Thus, the shock-metamorphosed quartz grains, although rare, provide clear and convincing evidence that the Exmore beds are of hybrid impact origin. Identification of shocked quartz grains in the Langley core adds to the number of sites in the structure where their presence is confirmed. Most of the clasts of crystalline rock that are in and just below the Exmore beds are rounded, detrital, and typical of coastal plain sediments. However, a few have angular shapes and consist of cataclastically deformed felsite having aphanitic-porphyritic to aphanitic texture and peraluminous rhyolite composition. Three of these clasts contain quartz grains that display two sets of planar deformation features of shock-metamorphic origin. Shock-metamorphosed quartz is an integral part of the cataclastic fabric in these three clasts, indicating that both the fabric and the shocked quartz were produced by the same high-energy impact event. Some felsite clasts have spherulitic textures that may be features either of an impact melt or of preimpact volcanic rocks. A weighted-mean total-fusion 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age of 35.3±0.1 Ma (±lσ) for 19 analyses of 4 North American tektites records the age of the late Eocene Chesapeake Bay impact event.

Chesapeake Bay↗