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USGS1998

Preliminary lithostratigraphy, interpreted geophysical logs and hydrogeologic characteristics of the 98th Street core hole, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Core samples, cuttings, and numerous geophysical logs obtained from the 1560 ft (475.5 m) core hole drilled at 98th Street on the west side of Albuquerque provide key stratigraphic and hydraulicproperty information for the upper clastic sediments of the Santa Fe Group, which form the principal aquifer in the region. The core hole and an adjacent water-level monitoring well were drilled cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the City of Albuquerque and investigated in collaboration with the New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources and the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer to improve understanding of aquifer characteristics and controls on ground-water availability and quality. The 751.5 ft (229 m) of core samples recovered from the core hole are the only undisturbed samples of nonlithified sediments of the upper part of the Santa Fe Group that have been collected in this area. These samples have allowed us, for the first time, to directly observe and characterize the lithic and sedimentologic features of this part of the section, and to correlate the detailed geologic features with geophysical-log characteristics, magnetic susceptibility measurements, hydraulic variables, and trace-element geochemistry. The adjacent well was designed to be an areally representative ground-water level and water-quality monitoring well for the Santa Fe Group aquifer. This report chiefly addresses the lithologic, stratigraphic, and hydrogeologic features determined from the 98th Street core hole; other reports address related characteristics. Previous geologic studies predicted the stratigraphy at the site to be, from the land surface downward: 1) Quaternary alluvial and eolian valley-border sediments; 2) fluvial sand and gravel of the upper unit of the Santa Fe Group (Ceja Member of the Santa Fe Formation of Kelly, 1978; equivalent to the Sierra Ledrones Formation of Machette (1978a); 3) downward-fining basin-floor silty clay deposits and 4) fluvial sandy and silty facies of the middle unit of the Santa Fe Group (the Middle Red Member of Bryan and McCann, 1937, and Lambert, 1968). New geologic interpretations indicate that the drill site is in a fault block bounded by east-dipping normal faults and the oblique Atrisco-Rincon fault zone. Core-hole sampling recovered 760.6 ft (231.8 m) of core, in core segments 2.1-2.375 in. (5.3-6 cm) in diameter, and 0.2-10 ft (6.1 cm-3 m) long. The core hole was cased with centered 3-in. PVC casing, and is available for geophysical logging. The monitoring-well hole contains four piezometers at depths of 1544 ft (470.6 m), 1112 ft (338.9 m), 749 ft (228.3 m), and 458 ft (139.6 m). Sediments in the core are loose to weakly cemented gravel, sand, silt, and clay, and lithified sandstone. Laboratory analyses of particle-size distributions of 28 channel samples show that most silty sand samples are uniformly graded and poorly sorted; medium sand samples are moderately sorted. Six principal sediment types are used to describe the core; these sediment types are repeated in various combinations throughout the core and are used to define 22 lithologic units in the cored interval. The six principal sediment types contain sequences of beds having similar modal grain size and sedimentary structure, and are listed in decreasing abundance: 1) Silty fine sand, poorly sorted, containing a coarse silt matrix. Geophysical logs show highly variable baselines with deflections that are related to clay beds and sequences of silt, clay, and sorted fine sand. Density values of 2.12-2.25 g/cc and porosity values of 30-35 percent are typical. 2) Medium sand, moderately to poorly sorted. Geophysical logs show baselines of low variability with deflections that are related to clay beds and sequences of silt, clay, and sorted fine sand. Density values of 2.05-2.20 g/cc and porosity values of 30-35 percent are typical. 3) Clayey sandy silt, poorly sorted, locally microlaminated clay and silt, generally nonplastic. Geophysical logs show highly variable baselines with deflections that are related to sequences of clay and fine sand. Density values of 2.1-2.2 g/cc and porosity values of 30-40 percent are typical. 4) Silt and clay, characteristically red to reddish brown and medium to high plasticity, massive to indistinctly microlaminated. Geophysical logs show variable baselines with broad, high-amplitude compound spikes that are related to sequences of silt and fine sand. Density values of 2.12-2.25 g/cc and porosity values of >45 percent are typical. 5) Sand and gravel, poorly sorted. Geophysical logs show variable baselines with deflections that are related to sequences of silty and sorted fine sand. 6) Sandstone, fine-to-medium grained, poorly sorted, cemented chiefly by calcite, which fills the original pore space. Geophysical logs show density values >2.25 g/cc and porosity values <30 percent. The 22 lithologic units are correlated with recognized basin-floor fluvial lithofacies (Hawley, 1996), which include sand and gravel (lithofacies I), sand with lenses of pebbly sand, silt, and silty clay (lithofacies II), and interbedded sand, silt, and silty clay (modified lithofacies III, IV, IX). The sediments in the core hole are correlated with three informal lithostratigraphic units. The top unit, 0-19 ft (0-5.8 m) depth, consists of Quaternary eolian sand and valley-border alluvium. Coarsegrained deposits in the 19-97 ft (5.8-29.6 m) interval are correlated with the upper unit of the Santa Fe Group. The fine-grained section in the 97-787 ft (29.6-239.9 m) interval is correlated tentatively with the middle unit of the Santa Fe Group. This section contains thick sequences of laminated red and olivebrown clay and silt overbank deposits (441-787 ft) in the distinctive Atrisco member of Connell and others (1998). The Atrisco is correlated with fine-grained zones in numerous wells throughout the central Albuquerque metropolitan area, and is recognized as a zone that separates the upper Santa Fe aquifer from underlying middle Santa Fe deposits. The lower section of the middle unit of the Santa Fe, 787-1500 ft (239.9-457.2 m) depth, includes an upper sequence of moderately sorted channel-fill medium sand, and a lower sequence of sand, silt, and clay overbank deposits. The age of the cored interval is not known precisely. The upper Santa Fe gravel is related regionally to a through-flowing river system that was established in the Rio Grande rift valleys in Early Pliocene time, >4.5 MA. The middle Santa Fe unit is dated tentatively by correlation with a fossiliferous section, in which sandy beds that directly underlie the upper Santa Fe are Late Miocene (Hemphellian), 4.6- 8.9 MA. Further, the middle Santa Fe unit, with dominantly normal magnetic polarity, may have been deposited during closely spaced normal magnetic chrons 5.9-8.3 Ma. Four hydrostratigraphic units summarize the hydrogeologic framework for the 98th Street site: 1) Quaternary valley-border deposits, 2) upper Santa Fe sand and gravel deposits, 3) middle Santa Fe overbank deposits, and 4) middle Santa Fe channel-sand deposits. Empirical values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimated from core samples reveal a previously unknown contrast in hydraulic conductivity in the lowest two hydrostratigraphic units. Correlations among numerous wells show that the distinctively fine-grained Atrisco member, with estimated hydraulic conductivities (K) of <0.02-17 ft/day, is a laterally extensive barrier to vertical ground-water flow. The underlying unit that contains moderately sorted medium sand is a potential aquifer production zone that should be investigated further. Laboratory determination of vertical hydraulic conductivity values for fine-grained core samples range from 10 -2 to 10 -7 ft/day; recompacted sandy samples have K values of 1 to 10 -2 ft/day. Results of tests conducted with increasing effective stress show that K values of all samples decrease with decreasing porosity. Comparison of K values from laboratory, empirical, and calculated geophysical values shows discrepancies of 1-3 orders of magnitude (ft/day), indicating that additional analyses of core samples and geophysical data are necessary for future characterization of the Santa Fe Group aquifer.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

Sources, instream transport, and trends of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the lower Tennessee River basin, 1980-96

In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an assessment of the lower Tennessee River Basin as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Existing nutrient and sediment data from 1980 to 1996 were compiled, screened, and interpreted to estimate watershed inputs from nutrient sources, provide a general description of the distribution and transport of nutrients and sediments in surface water, and evaluate trends in nutrient and sediment concentrations in the lower Tennessee (LTEN) River Basin. Nitrogen inputs from major sources varied widely among tributary basins in the LTEN River Basin. Point source wastewater discharges contributed between 0 and 0.61 tons per square mile per year [(tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Of the nonpoint sources of nitrogen for which inputs were estimated (atmospheric deposition, nitrogen fixation, fertilizer application, and livestock waste) livestock waste contributed the largest input in about two-thirds (7 out of 11) of the tributary basins, and fertilizer application contributed the largest input in the remaining 4 basins. Nitrogen input from fertilizer application was the most variable spatially among the nonpoint sources of nitrogen, ranging from 1.5 to 23 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Atmospheric deposition estimates varied the least from basin to basin, ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Estimates of nitrogen input from livestock waste ranged between 2.0 to 13 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. The percentage of the input from each of these nonpoint sources that entered the surface-water system is not known. Wastewater discharge contributed between 0 and 0.14 (ton/mi 2 )/yr of phosphorus to tributary basins. Livestock waste contributed most of the input in 8 out of the 11 basins, and fertilizer application contributed the most in the remaining 3 basins. Estimates of phosphorus input for fertilizer application ranged from 0.35 to 5.1 (tons/mi 2 )/yr and from 0.62 to 4.3 (tons/mi 2 )/yr from livestock waste. Reservoirs on the main stem of the Tennessee River and on the Duck and Elk Rivers affect nutrient transport because hydrodynamic conditions in the reservoirs promote assimilation by aquatic plants and deposition of particulate matter. Observed decreases in total nitrite plus nitrate and dissolved-orthophosphorus concentrations in reservoirs or at sites downstream of reservoirs during summer months were probably related to seasonality of plant growth. Nutrient and sediment data used to estimate annual instream loads and yields were compiled from various water-quality monitoring programs and represent the best available data in the LTEN River Basin, but these data have several characteristics that limit accuracy of load estimates. Many of the monitoring programs were not designed with the objective of annual load estimation, and data representing storm transport are, therefore, sparse; sampling and analytical methods varied through time and among the monitoring programs, hampering spatial and temporal comparisons. The load estimates computed from these data are useful for evaluating broad spatial patterns of instream load, and comparisons of instream load to inputs, but may not be sufficiently accurate for local-scale evaluations of water quality. Estimates of the mean annual instream load of total nitrogen entering (Chattanooga, Tenn.) and leaving (Paducah, Ky.) the LTEN River Basin were 29,000 and 60,000 tons per year (tons/yr), respectively. These estimates represent a gain of 31,000 tons/yr, on average, across the area (18,930 mi 2 ) between these inlet and outlet sites. The sum of the mean annual instream load from gaged tributaries to the main stem within the study unit was 14,000 tons/yr; however, this number cannot be directly compared with the gain between the inlet and outlet sites because (1) the gaged area represents only 30 percent of the total area and (2) the period of record at many tributary sites did not correspond with the period of record at the inlet or outlet sites. Estimates of mean annual instream load of total phosphorus at the inlet and outlet sites of the LTEN River Basin were 1,300 and 5,000 tons/yr, respectively, representing a gain of 3,700 tons/yr, on average, across the study unit. The sum of the gaged tributary load, representing only 28 percent of the area contributing to the main stem, was 4,300 tons/yr. Although this number cannot be closely compared with the gain throughout the study unit, for the same reasons given for total nitrogen, a general comparison suggests that the main stem of the Tennessee River and the tributary embayments along the main stem function as a sink for total phosphorus, removing a substantial amount from the water column through deposition or assimilation. The estimates of inputs can be compared and correlated with yields (area-normalized instream loads); significant correlations between estimates of inputs and yields might be useful as predictive tools for instream water quality where monitoring data are not available. Yields of nitrogen correlated moderately well with inputs from nonpoint sources, based on 1992 estimates. Nitrogen yield was highest [3.5 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for Town Creek, for which the balance of nonpoint-source inputs to agricultural lands (fertilizer application plus nitrogen fixation plus livestock waste minus harvest) was also the highest [15 (tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Nitrogen yield was low [1.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for the Buffalo River, for which the balance of agricultural nonpoint-source input was correspondingly low [3.2 (tons/mi 2 )/yr, the second lowest]. Correlation of wastewater discharge with yield was poor, and contrasted with the significant correlation between wastewater discharge and median nitrogen concentration during low streamflow. The poor correlation between wastewater discharge and annual yield was expected, however, as wastewater discharge is a small fraction compared with annual yield. In contrast with nitrogen, phosphorus yield did not correlate well with any estimated inputs or land-use types for the tributary basins. Phosphorus yield was highest [1.1 and 0.93 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] at two sites along the Duck River and at Elk River near Prospect [0.89 (ton/mi 2 )/yr]; however, estimates of inputs at these sites were in the middle of their respective ranges. The influence of the outcrop of phosphatic limestone formations of the brown-phosphate districts in the lower Duck and lower Elk River Basins might be responsible for the poor correlation between estimated inputs and yields of phosphorus. The outcrop pattern of these phosphatic limestones are an important factor to consider as regional boundaries are established for attainable, region-specific water-quality criteria for total phosphorus. Estimates of sediment input from cropland soil erosion in 1992 ranged from 51 to 540 (tons/mi 2 )/yr among the major hydrologic units in the LTEN River Basin. Information was not available to estimate this input for individual tributaries. Sediment yield estimates ranged from 65 to 263 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the three tributary monitoring basins for which instream data were available, and from 17 to 26 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the Tennessee River at South Pittsburg and at Pickwick Landing Dam, respectively. Lower sediment yields for the main stem sites compared with the tributary sites is probably due to sediment deposition in the main stem of the Tennessee River and tributary embayments along the main stem. Most of the significant trends in nutrient concentrations from about 1985 to about 1995 were decreasing trends, except for total nitrite plus nitrate, which increased at one site on the Elk River. The spatial distribution of decreasing trends of total nitrogen and total ammonia corresponds with the spatial variation among basins in wastewater loading rate. The time period of observed trends corresponds to the period of improvements in municipal treatment, thus decreases in wastewater effluent concentrations of nitrogen might be responsible for the decreasing trend in instream concentrations at these sites. Concentrations of total phosphorus did not decrease during this period at these sites, as might have been expected considering the reductions in wastewater input of phosphorus during this period.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗