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USGS2022

Workshops report for mesophotic and deep benthic community fish, mobile invertebrates, sessile invertebrates and infauna

Two workshops with subject matter experts in the appropriate fields, were held in November and December 2021 to elicit guidance and feedback from the broader mesophotic and deep benthic scientific community. These workshops focused on best practices/approaches and identifying data gaps relative to habitat assessment and evaluation goals of the Mesophotic and Deep Benthic Community (MDBC) restoration portfolio. The first workshop was a combined effort of the Habitat Assessment and Evaluation (HAE) Project Team and the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Program. Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc) provided extensive workshop planning, organizing, execution, and facilitation support during all stages of the workshop. Based on a questionnaire sent to scientists in August, 2021, the workshop focused on fish and mobile invertebrate habitat associations, abundance trends, community metrics, and food web functionality. Topical presentations and discussions focused not only on demersal fish and mobile invertebrates that are directly associated with mesophotic and deep benthic habitats, but also considered water column species and communities that benefit from these habitats more broadly. The second workshop, intended to complement the first workshop, focused on identifying best practices and critical information gaps for key community metrics, larval dispersal modeling, connectivity, effects and variability of environmental parameters, and recovery trajectories of corals, infauna, and other sessile invertebrates. Through literature review, internal HAE scientists considered these topics to be critical for restoration success. Products from the literature review included topical summaries (see Appendix B) that summarized the current state-of-the-science and provided the framework for the workshop. Information generated from the workshops will assist the MDBC HAE Project, and more broadly the DWH Program, identify data gaps and develop a suite of best practices for restoration activities.

DWH MDBC Summary Report↗

USGS2015

Review of the USA National Phenology Network

In January 2014, leadership from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Ecosystems Mission Area commissioned a review of the USA National Phenology Network (USA–NPN) Program. The Ecosystems Mission Area has a key stake in the USA–NPN, providing both supervision of its Director and most of the appropriated funds. The products and objectives of the program are relevant to six of the seven USGS Mission Areas as well as to at least four Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus. A nine-person panel of reviewers, with representatives from the USGS, other Federal agencies, and academia, was convened to provide advice and recommendations to USGS leadership. Specifically, the panel was asked to assess the science utility of having a National Phenology Network; to consider USGS science mission and DOI management needs served by the USA–NPN; and to consider the utility of the USA–NPN to other Federal agency science missions or management needs (including the National Science Foundation [NSF] and university research funded by the NSF and other government agencies). This report summarizes the panel’s findings and offers five recommendations for USGS leadership: 1. Commit to stable USA–NPN funding and increase accountability. 2. Establish a Federal Steering Committee, led by the USGS, and a separate Scientific Phenology User Group. 3. Emphasize continental-scale phenology data and information. 4. Formalize volunteer engagement in phenology data collection. 5. Integrate phenology information into USGS science. The panel generally affirms the value of the USA–NPN program and finds that the program is successfully meeting the needs of its stakeholders, including the USGS. However, the USGS needs to be more engaged in the program, providing leadership and setting priorities for the future. The USA–NPN, in turn, needs to deliver more clearly defined, DOI-relevant, USGS-integrated, data product lines that have the broadest possible spatial and temporal scope to meet user needs across the United States. The panel recommends that the USA–NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) establish an implementation plan that addresses all of the panel recommendations, with priorities, timelines, and assumptions to move the program forward successfully.

Circular↗

USGS2016

Surface water-quality activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with a variety of Federal, State, local, and tribal partners on scientific projects to provide reliable and impartial water-quality data and interpretation to resource managers, planners, stakeholders, and the general public. The themes related to surface water quality include the following: • Water quality monitoring networks • Effects of best management practices and low impact development on water quality • Load estimation techniques and total maximum daily load assistance • Mercury studies • Toxics and emerging contaminants • Eutrophication and nuisance algal blooms

New England↗

USGS2017

Magnetic monitoring in Saguaro National Park

On a sandy, arid plain, near the Rincon Mountain Visitor Center of Saguaro National Park, tucked in among brittlebush, creosote, and other hardy desert plants, is an unusual type of observatory—a small unmanned station that is used for monitoring the Earth’s variable magnetic field. Named for the nearby city of Tucson, Arizona, the observatory is 1 of 14 that the Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey operates at various locations across the United States and Territories. Data from USGS magnetic observatories, including the Tucson observatory, as well as observatories operated by institutions in other countries, record a variety of signals related to a wide diversity of physical phenomena in the Earth’s interior and its surrounding outer-space environment. The data are used for geomagnetic mapping and surveying, for fundamental scientific research, and for assessment of magnetic storms, which can be hazardous for the activities and infrastructure of our modern, technologically based society. The U.S. Geological Survey observatory service is an integral part of a U.S. national project for monitoring and assessing space weather hazards.

Arizona↗

USGS2008

Geographic Names of Iceland's Glaciers: Historic and Modern

Climatic changes and resulting glacier fluctuations alter landscapes. In the past, such changes were noted by local residents who often documented them in historic annals; eventually, glacier variations were recorded on maps and scientific reports. In Iceland, 10 glacier place-names are to be found in Icelandic sagas, and one of Iceland's ice caps, Snaefellsjokull, appeared on maps of Iceland published in the 16th century. In the late 17th century, the first description of eight of Iceland's glaciers was written. Therefore, Iceland distinguishes itself in having a more than 300-year history of observations by Icelanders on its glaciers. A long-term collaboration between Oddur Sigurdsson and Richard S. Williams, Jr., led to the authorship of three books on the glaciers of Iceland. Much effort has been devoted to documenting historical glacier research and related nomenclature and to physical descriptions of Icelandic glaciers by Icelanders and other scientists from as far back as the Saga Age to recent (2008) times. The first book, Icelandic Ice Mountains, was published by the Icelandic Literary Society in 2004 in cooperation with the Icelandic Glaciological Society and the International Glaciological Society. Icelandic Ice Mountains was a glacier treatise written by Sveinn Palsson in 1795 and is the first English translation of this important scientific document. Icelandic Ice Mountains includes a Preface, including a summary of the history and facsimiles of page(s) from the original manuscript, a handwritten copy, and an 1815 manuscript (without maps and drawings) by Sveinn Palsson on the same subject which he wrote for Rev. Ebenezer Henderson; an Editor's Introduction; 82 figures, including facsimiles of Sveinn Palsson's original maps and perspective drawings, maps, and photographs to illustrate the text; a comprehensive Index of Geographic Place-Names and Other Names in the treatise; References, and 415 Endnotes. Professional Paper 1746 (this book) is the second of the three books; it is being published in both English and Icelandic editions. This book provides information about all named glaciers in Iceland, historic and modern. Descriptions, with geographic coordinates, and bibliographic citations to all glacier place-names on published maps, books, and scientific articles are included. Maps, oblique aerial photographs, ground photographs, and satellite images document each of the 269 modern named glaciers of Iceland. The third book, Glaciers of Iceland, is Chapter D of the 11-chapter [volume] U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386-A-K. Chapter D includes a 1:500,000-scale Map of the Glaciers of Iceland; it is a comprehensive historical and modern review and assessment of what is currently known about glaciers in Iceland's eight Regional Glacier Groups from a review of the scientific literature and from analysis of maps and remotely sensed data (ground, airborne, and satellite); topics include geology and geography, climate and climate variability, types of glaciers, history of glacier variation (including the 21 surge-type glaciers), and frequency and magnitude of volcanic and lacustrine jokulhlaups.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

Introduction

elemetry provides a powerful and flexible tool for studying aquatic animals, making it possible to repeatedly locate and identify individuals in remote or inaccessible settings—a task that would be difficult (if not impossible) to accomplish using other methods. The use of telemetry has increased dramatically in recent years, and its application is limited only by the capabilities of the equipment and the researcher’s imagination. In spite of these advantages, telemetry is equipment-intensive and generally requires more specialized knowledge and training than many other field techniques. The electronic equipment associated with its use can often dazzle, intimidate, and confuse those just starting out. Even experienced users are often hard-pressed to keep up with the technological advances. Answers to such basic questions as “what equipment do I need?” or “how do I get started?” are not always evident or straightforward. These are valid concerns, since the equipment and methods used can affect the success of the study and the quality of information collected. The purpose of this book is to provide a guide for using telemetry to study aquatic animals—call it a user’s manual or Telemetry 101. Our principal intent is to provide the basic information to plan, implement, and conduct telemetry studies under field conditions. Considerations related to data collection and interpretations are also discussed. As with any scientific procedure, collecting usable information and accurately interpreting study results depends on an understanding of the underlying principles of the methods used. A wide range of telemetry equipment and field techniques are available. Clearly defined research objectives and knowledge of the various options, capabilities, and limitations of the equipment and methods is essential for developing projects that effectively address the research or management questions being asked. Telemetry is a tool, and like any tool it will only function effectively when used properly.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Causal networks clarify productivity-richness interrelations, bivariate plots do not

Perhaps no other pair of variables in ecology has generated as much discussion as species richness and ecosystem productivity, as illustrated by the reactions by Pierce (2013) and others to Adler et al.'s (2011) report that empirical patterns are weak and inconsistent. Adler et al. (2011) argued we need to move beyond a focus on simplistic bivariate relationships and test mechanistic, multivariate causal hypotheses. We feel the continuing debate over productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) provides a focused context for illustrating the fundamental difficulties of using bivariate relationships to gain scientific understanding. Pierce (2013) disputes Adler et al.'s (2011) conclusion that bivariate productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) are ‘weak and variable’. He argues, instead, that relationships in the Adler et al. data are actually strong and, further, that failure to adhere to the humped-back model (HBM; sensu Grime 1979) threatens scientists' ability to advise conservationists. Here, we show that Pierce's reanalyses are invalid, that statistically significant boundary relations in the Adler et al. data are difficult to detect when proper methods are used and that his advice neither advances scientific understanding nor provides the quantitative forecasts actually needed by decision makers. We begin by examining Grimes' HBM through the lens of causal networks. We first translate the ideas contained in the HBM into a causal diagram, which shows explicitly how multiple processes are hypothesized to control biomass production and richness and their interrelationship. We then evaluate the causal diagram using structural equation modelling and example data from a published study of meadows in Finland. Formal analysis rejects the literal translation of the HBM and reveals additional processes at work. This exercise shows how the practice of abstracting systems as causal networks (i) clarifies possible hypotheses, (ii) permits explicit testing and (iii) provides more powerful and useful predictions. Building on the Finnish meadow example, we contrast the utility of bivariate plots compared with structural equation models for investigating underlying processes. Simulations illustrate the fallibility of bivariate analysis as a means of supporting one theory over another, while models based on causal networks can quantify the sensitivity of diversity patterns to both management and natural constraints. A key piece of Pierce's critique of Adler et al.'s conclusions relies on upper boundary regression which he claims to reveal strong relationships between production and richness in Adler et al.'s original data. We demonstrate that this technique shows strong associations in purely random data and is invalid for Adler et al.'s data because it depends on a uniform data distribution. We instead perform quantile regression on both the site-level summaries of the data and the plot-level data (using mixed-model quantile regression). Using a variety of nonlinear curve-fitting approaches, we were unable to detect a significant humped-shape boundary in the Adler et al. data. We reiterate that the bivariate productivity–richness relationships in Adler et al.'s data are weak and variable. We urge ecologists to consider productivity–richness relationships through the lens of causal networks to advance our understanding beyond bivariate analysis. Further, we emphasize that models based on a causal network conceptualization can also provide more meaningful guidance for conservation management than can a bivariate perspective. Measuring only two variables does not permit the evaluation of complex ideas nor resolve debates about underlying mechanisms.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2026

Holistic understanding of uncertainty for collaborative and proactive global change decision making

Global change is accelerating and pushing the planet's ecosystems beyond the range of historical observations, creating increasing uncertainty in future system conditions. Despite general agreement that proactive environmental action is warranted, environmental decision conversations often end by identifying additional data needed to reduce uncertainty before taking novel action. Given the inherent uncertainty in complex issues such as global change, quantitative data alone are likely insufficient to support proactive environmental action. Holistic understanding of uncertainty includes scientific quantification of uncertainty paired with emotional responses and transcendental grounding to help people work together toward proactive action in uncertain decision contexts. Holistic understanding arises from the four ways in which humans perceive the world, termed the Four Realms: Physical (e.g., how I observe), Mental (e.g., how I think), Emotional (e.g., how I feel), and Transcendental (e.g., how I connect to greater meaning or purpose). Environmental scientists and decision makers are generally trained in Physical and Mental Realm observation and analysis, but not in how to apply Emotional and Transcendental Realm understanding. Emotional and Transcendental processing occurs in scientists and decision makers whether it is acknowledged or not and contributes to different people interpreting the same information in different ways. Thus, when the role of Emotional and Transcendental Realms in an individual's interpretation process is not understood, it can derail conversations and perpetuate the status quo. Explicitly recognizing all Four Realms can bring people together across differences and inspire shared, novel decision making even in increasing uncertainty. To illustrate the benefits of holistic understanding, we share stories from our experiences in environmental decision contexts. Because accessing the Four Realms requires experiential and embodied techniques, while still relying on core scientific tenets of observation and analysis, we also present techniques for readers to learn to feel their own emotional understanding and connect to their own transcendental understanding. Holistic understanding can enhance data-driven decisions by recognizing that human responses to uncertainty inherently include interactions between emotions, thoughts, transcendental connections, and behavior. Ultimately, holistic understanding can help anchor data-driven decisions in intra- and interpersonal connections, inspiring action in the face of uncertainty.

Ecosphere↗

USGS1975

WATSTORE: National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System of the U. S. Geological Survey; user's guide

The U.S. Geological Survey investigates the occurrence , quantity, quality, distribution, and movement of the surface and underground water resources of the Nation. The investigations, which are conducted by the Water Resources Division, of the Survey include: systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of water data; investigation of in and agricultural water requirements; research and development to improve study techniques and methodologies to better understand the hydrologic principles that form the scientific basis of investigation; and publication and other forms of release to the public of results and data from these investigations. A large scale computerized storage and retrieval system is used by the Geological Survey to store and disseminate water data acquired through its many activities. The Geological Survey's National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE) was implemented in November 1971. In addition to its data processing, storage, and retrieval capabilities, WATSTORE has the capability of providing computer-printed tables, computer-printed graphs, statistical analyses of data, and digital plots. The system is operated and maintained on the central computer facility of the Survey at its National Center, Reston, Va. an through approximately 50 terminals in Water Resources Division district an subdistrict offices located in major cities throughout the country. Asccess to WATSTORE is limited by hardware, available telephone lines, etc; for example, direct access is possible only through terminal equipment capable of interfacing with an IBM 370/155 computer. WATSTORE is now (1975) available to other Federal agencies and selected cooperators of the Geological Survey who acquire and(or) use water data. The WATSTORE User's Guide describes the systeb and how it operates.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a preliminary database for the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico coasts

The prediction of coastal evolution is not straightforward. There is no standard methodology, and even the kind of data required to make such predictions are the subject of much scientific debate. Since a viable, quantitative predictive model for coastal evolution is not available. The relative susceptibility of the Nation's coastline to sea-level rise is quantified here at a regional to national scale using basic information on coastal geomorphology, rate of sea-level rise, past shoreline evolution and other factors. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental and conditions, and yields a relative measure of the system's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. This information has immediate application to many of the decisions our society will be making regarding coastal development in both the short- and long-term.

Data Series↗

USGS2002

Rationale and operational plan to upgrade the U.S. gravity database

A concerted effort is underway to prepare a substantially upgraded digital gravity anomaly database for the United States and to make this data set and associated usage tools available on the internet. This joint effort, spearheaded by the geophysics groups at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is an outgrowth of the new geoscientific community initiative called Geoinformatics (www.geoinformaticsnetwork.org). This dominantly geospatial initiative reflects the realization by Earth scientists that existing information systems and techniques are inadequate to address the many complex scientific and societal issues. Currently, inadequate standardization and chaotic distribution of geoscience data, inadequate accompanying documentation, and the lack of easy-to-use access tools and computer codes for analysis are major obstacles for scientists, government agencies, and educators. An example of the type of activities envisioned, within the context of Geoinformatics, is the construction, maintenance, and growth of a public domain gravity database and development of the software tools needed to access, implement, and expand it. This product is far more than a high quality database; it is a complete data system for a specific type of geophysical measurement that includes, for example, tools to manipulate the data and tutorials to understand and properly utilize the data. On August 9, 2002, twenty-one scientists from the federal, private and academic sectors met at a workshop to discuss the rationale for upgrading both the United States and North American gravity databases (including offshore regions) and, more importantly, to begin developing an operational plan to effectively create a new gravity data system. We encourage anyone interested in contributing data or participating in this effort to contact G.R. Keller or T.G. Hildenbrand. This workshop was the first step in building a web-based data system for sharing quality gravity data and methodology, and it builds on existing collaborative efforts. This compilation effort will result in significant additions to and major refinement of the U.S. database that is currently released publicly by NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center and will also include an additional objective to substantially upgrade the North American database, released over 15 years ago (Committee for the Gravity Anomaly Map of North America, 1987).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Space geodetic data improve seismic hazard assessment in California: Workshop on incorporating geodetic surface deformation data Into UCERF3; Pomona, California, 1–2 April 2010

A workshop was held to begin scientific consideration of how to incorporate space geodetic constraints on strain rates and fault slip rates into the next generation Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), due to be completed in mid-2012. Principal outcomes of the meeting were (1) an assessment of secure science ready for UCERF3 applications within the next year, and (2) an agenda of new research objectives for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and others in support of UCERF3 and related probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA). A number of goals potentially achievable within a year were identified, including (1) slip rate and fault locking depth estimates, with uncertainties or ranges, for all major and some minor faults of the extended San Andreas system; (2) strain rate estimates or bounds on rates for selected regions lying off the major faults of the San Andreas system; and (3) corrections or bounds on perturbing effects of postseismic deformation and elastic modulus heterogeneities on the observed Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field (needed as input to models for estimating fault slip and strain rates in goals 1 and 2 above).

California↗

USGS2017

Bedrock and structural geologic maps of eastern Candor Sulci, western Ceti Mensa, and southeastern Ceti Mensa, Candor Chasma, Valles Marineris region of Mars

This map product contains a set of three 1:18,000-scale maps showing the geology and structure of study areas in the western Candor Chasma region of Valles Marineris, Mars. These maps are part of an informal series of large-scale maps and map-based topical studies aimed at refining current understanding of the geologic history of western Candor Chasma. The map bases consist of digital elevation models and orthorectified images derived from High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) data. These maps are accompanied by geologic cross sections, colorized elevation maps, and cutouts of HiRISE images showing key superposition relations. Also included in this product is a Correlation of Map Units that integrates units across all three map areas, as well as an integrated Description of Map Units and an integrated Explanation of Map Symbols. The maps were assembled using ArcGIS software produced by Environmental Systems Research Institute (http://www.esri.com). The ArcGIS projects and databases associated with each map are included online as supplemental data.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2018

Geologic map of the Nepenthes Planum Region, Mars

This map product contains a map sheet at 1:1,506,000 scale that shows the geology of the Nepenthes Planum region of Mars, which is located between the cratered highlands that dominate the southern hemisphere and the less-cratered sedimentary plains that dominate the northern hemisphere. The map region contains cone- and mound-shaped landforms as well as lobate materials that are morphologically similar to terrestrial igneous or mud vents and flows. This map is part of an informal series of small-scale (large-area) maps aimed at refining current understanding of the geologic units and structures that make up the highland-to-lowland transition zone. The map base consists of a controlled Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) daytime infrared image mosaic (100 meters per pixel resolution) supplemented by a Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) digital elevation model (463 meters per pixel resolution). The map includes a Description of Map Units and a Correlation of Map Units that describes and correlates units identified across the entire map region. The geologic map was assembled using ArcGIS software by Environmental Systems Research Institute ( http://www.esri.com ). The ArcGIS project, geodatabase, base map, and all map components are included online as supplemental data.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2020

Geologic map of Jezero crater and the Nili Planum region, Mars

The cratered highlands located northwest of Isidis Planitia have been recognized as one of the best preserved Noachian landscapes currently exposed on Mars; the area hosts a record of diverse surface processes, diagenesis, and aqueous alteration. This region has consistently been considered a high priority for landed-mission exploration and includes the anticipated landing site of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover within Jezero crater. Past mapping, focused on Jezero crater and the surrounding area, Nili Planum, has varied in spatial extent, map scale, and purpose, though no previous maps have provided a continuous, high-resolution geologic map at uniform scale connecting the two locations. This map represents the first, large-scale, continuous geologic map spanning both Jezero crater and Nili Planum that is based on high-resolution images. The map area contains the majority of both Jezero crater and Nili Planum at a publication map scale of 1:75,000, which was chosen to encompass the Jezero and southern Nili Planum landing sites under consideration for the Mars 2020 mission at the time of project initiation. This map covers an area that is exactly 1° by 1° (~60 by 60 km), spanning lat 76.8° N. to long 77.8° E. and lat 17.7° to long 18.7° N. The primary base map used for this geologic map is composed of Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s Context Camera (CTX) images, compiled into a 6 meter per pixel (m/pixel) mosaic. A nighttime Thermal Emission Imaging System 100 m/pixel image mosaic, digital terrain models constructed from CTX images, High-Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) topographic data, and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRise) images also aided in unit identification and the assessment of stratigraphic relations. We defined map units on the basis of various characteristics visible in the CTX data at map scale, such as their texture, tone, morphology, marginal characteristics, geographic location, and stratigraphic relations to other units. Some units occur solely within Jezero crater, while Nili Planum contains a sequence of units that are present across the broader northwest Isidis Planitia region. Other units occur in both Jezero crater and Nili Planum, including bedrock, aeolian, and crater units. This map publication provides a regional geologic framework that connects the geologic units across Jezero crater and Nili Planum and the history they imply, facilitates future local-scale observations by landed missions of the Jezero crater and Nili Planum region, and enables the extrapolation of units that have been defined primarily by mineralogic composition to areas where there is no existing orbital spectroscopic data.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2024

Generalized potentiometric maps of the Fort Union, Hell Creek, and Fox Hills aquifers within the Standing Rock Reservation

Generalized potentiometric surfaces of the Fort Union, Hell Creek, and Fox Hills aquifers were constructed to assess the groundwater resources of the Standing Rock Reservation. Additionally, this information can provide water managers with tools and data to effectively manage water resources in the future. Previous studies that mapped the geology and hydrogeology of the area at differing scales were used to confirm in which aquifer the study wells were completed. Water-level data from wells are provided by the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater System Inventory database, the South Dakota Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources, and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources. Hydrographs were constructed for five selected observation wells to evaluate historical water-level fluctuations and trends. Hydrographs for the Hell Creek aquifer showed a flat trend with a rise in 2020. Hydrographs for the deeper Fox Hills aquifer showed that water levels fluctuated in response to climatic conditions and demonstrated an increasing trend in water-level elevations starting in 2010. Hydrographs were not constructed for any wells completed in the Fort Union Formation because none of the wells had continuous long-term measurements. Generalized potentiometric surfaces, constructed from interpolating water-level elevations, gave insight into groundwater flow directions. Groundwater in the Fort Union aquifer likely flows radially outward from the northwest part of the study area to the northeast and south-southeast parts. Groundwater in the Hell Creek aquifer generally flows from higher elevations in the northwest towards lower areas, where surface-water tributaries have incised into the aquifer. Groundwater in the Fox Hills aquifer likely flows from higher elevations in the west, southwest, and central parts of the study area towards the valleys of the Grand River and Missouri River. Most wells used for constructing potentiometric maps had only one recorded water-level measurement from drillers at the time of well construction. These measurements are often subject to error because the well is still recovering and because of spatial limitations of data availability. Also, because single water-level measurements were recorded at different points in time, additional uncertainty is introduced by fluctuating climatic conditions effect on water levels. Potentiometric map interpretation limitations are a result of areas with sparse data. Limitations also arise from potentiometric surfaces generalizing a complex and dynamic hydrogeologic system; however, the generalized potentiometric surface maps can be used to assist water managers and can help prioritize locations for future monitoring in areas with high uncertainty from sparse existing data.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2005

A computer program for predicting recharge with a master recession curve

Water-table fluctuations occur in unconfined aquifers owing to ground-water recharge following precipitation and infiltration, and ground-water discharge to streams between storm events. Ground-water recharge can be estimated from well hydrograph data using the water-table fluctuation (WTF) principle, which states that recharge is equal to the product of the water-table rise and the specific yield of the subsurface porous medium. The water-table rise, however, must be expressed relative to the water level that would have occurred in the absence of recharge. This requires a means for estimating the recession pattern of the water-table at the site. For a given site there is often a characteristic relation between the water-table elevation and the water-table decline rate following a recharge event. A computer program was written which extracts the relation between decline rate and water-table elevation from well hydrograph data and uses it to construct a master recession curve (MRC). The MRC is a characteristic water-table recession hydrograph, representing the average behavior for a declining water-table at that site. The program then calculates recharge using the WTF method by comparing the measured well hydrograph with the hydrograph predicted by the MRC and multiplying the difference at each time step by the specific yield. This approach can be used to estimate recharge in a continuous fashion from long-term well records. Presented here is a description of the code including the WTF theory and instructions for running it to estimate recharge with continuous well hydrograph data.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon↗