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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources

Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide

Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaking, and overland flow during runup. Potential tsunamis generated from the Currituck landslide are analyzed using four approaches: (1) tsunami wave history is calculated from several different scenarios indicated by geotechnical stability and mobility analyses; (2) a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the effects of both landslide failure duration during generation and bottom friction along the continental shelf during propagation; (3) wave history is calculated over a regional area to determine the propagation of energy oblique to the slide axis; and (4) a high-resolution 1D model is developed to accurately model wave breaking and the combined influence of nonlinearity and dispersion during nearshore propagation and runup. The primary source parameter that affects tsunami severity for this case study is landslide volume, with failure duration having a secondary influence. Bottom friction during propagation across the continental shelf has a strong influence on the attenuation of the tsunami during propagation. The high-resolution 1D model also indicates that the tsunami undergoes nonlinear fission prior to wave breaking, generating independent, short-period waves. Wave breaking occurs approximately 40-50??km offshore where a tsunami bore is formed that persists during runup. These analyses illustrate the complex nature of landslide tsunamis, necessitating the use of detailed landslide stability/mobility models and higher-order hydrodynamic models to determine their hazard.

Marine Geology↗

Diverting lava flows in the lab

Recent volcanic eruptions in Hawai'i, Iceland and Cape Verde highlight the challenges of mitigating hazards when lava flows threaten infrastructure. Diversion barriers are the most common form of intervention, but historical attempts to divert lava flows have met with mixed success and there has been little systematic analysis of optimal barrier design. We examine the interaction of viscous flows of syrup and molten basalt with barriers in the laboratory. We find that flows thicken immediately upslope of an obstacle, forming a localized bow wave that can overtop barriers. Larger bow waves are generated by faster flows and by obstacles oriented at a high angle to the flow direction. The geometry of barriers also influences flow behaviour. Barriers designed to split or dam flows will slow flow advance, but cause the flow to widen, whereas oblique barriers can effectively divert flows, but may also accelerate flow advance. We argue that to be successful, mitigation of lava-flow hazards must incorporate the dynamics of lava flow–obstacle interactions into barrier design. The same generalizations apply to the effect of natural topographic features on flow geometry and advance rates .

Nature Geoscience↗

Managing for a changing climate: A bended interdisciplinary climate course

We developed a blended (or hybrid) interactive course— Managing for a Changing Climate —that provides a holistic view of climate change. The course results from communication with university students and natural and cultural resource managers as well as the need for educational efforts aimed at the public, legislators, and decision-makers. Content includes the components of the physical climate system, natural climate variability, anthropogenic drivers of climate change, climate models and projections, climate assessments, energy economics, environmental policy, vulnerabilities to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, and decision-making related to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. To convey most of the content, the course-development team created over 50 short videos (3–10 min each) in partnership with experts from a variety of academic, government, and industry institutions. The blended course has been offered as an upper-division, undergraduate course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability and School of Meteorology (four times) and College of International Studies (in Italy, once) at the University of Oklahoma with over 100 total students. The course has also been presented online-only at no cost to the participants in four fall semesters with over 1,000 total registrations. Videos created for this course are freely available on the YouTube page of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. This course and its associated materials comprise high-quality, formal climate training and education that can be adapted to other formal and informal education settings beyond the walls of the university.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

Geotechnical characterization of TriNet sites: A status report

The TriNet project, launched in 1997, created an improved, real-time seismic monitoring network in Southern California. Planning of the network began in 1995 ( e.g. , Heaton et al. , 1996 ), building on the success of the earlier TERRAscope network, which included 24 digital broadband and strong-motion instruments throughout Southern California ( e.g. , Kanamori et al. , 1993 ). At the end of the five-year TriNet project the network comprised 150 real-time digital broadband stations and another 400 strong-motion sensors, 50 of which were also real-time. This network is now recording digital broadband data for Southern California earthquakes at an unprecedented rate, data that are already proving valuable for investigations of earthquake sources and regional wave propagation, as well as earthquake response. In this report we describe an ongoing effort aimed at a full geotechnical characterization of the newly installed TriNet sets. Shallow geologic structure is known to play a substantial role in controlling the ground motions recorded at any site. Documentation of amplified ground motion at soft-sediment sites can be found among even early macroseismic observations of strong ground motions ( e.g. , Drake, 1815 ). Seismic waves are also now known to be strongly affected by deep basin structure as well ( e.g. , Frankel et al. , 1991 ; Field, 2000 ; Joyner, 2000 ). It will be necessary to understand these effects to exploit fully the rich data set being recorded at TriNet sites. Clearly, the nature of site conditions and site response at the recording sites must be understood for studies focused on ground motions and hazard from future large earthquakes, but it is also necessary to understand these effects to conduct earthquake source studies of both large and small earthquakes. Our multifaceted site characterization project involves geological/geotechnical site investigations, database development, and investigation of empirical amplification factors determined from broadband and strong-motion data recorded to date. Our goal is to complete a first-order geologic site characterization by 2005 and then employ appropriate methods to obtain direct constraint on shallow shear-wave velocity structure at each site. In the latter effort we will endeavor to find the most accurate and cost-effective methods to quantify geotechnical parameters at sites that have ranges of geologic site conditions and cultural settings. Our long-term goal is to obtain direct estimates of the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, Vs30, at each site. If velocity information is available to greater depths, for example at sites characterized under the ROSRINE project ( http://geoinfo.usc.edu/rosrine/ ), this information will be included in the database as well. The original motivation for using Vs30 to characterize near-surface velocity was pragmatic, determined by such factors as the typical reach of a drill rig in a single day. The parameter has become the accepted standard with which many seismic recording sites are characterized, however. In a recent study using mainshock and aftershock recordings at sites in the Los Angeles region, Wald and Mori ( 2000 ) observed good correlation between Vs30 and amplification at 1-7 Hz, albeit with significant scatter. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we describe our ongoing efforts and present site characterization results collected to date for 62 broadband and strong-motion stations in and around the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region. Second, we present preliminary results that illustrate how improved geologic site characterizations can improve the correlation between site conditions and site response. Finally, we invite feedback from the community to guide our future investigations, in particular with respect to our ongoing database development efforts.

California↗

Storm tide monitoring during the blizzard of January 26-28, 2015, in eastern Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of six storm surge sensors and four barometric pressure sensors along the Atlantic coast in eastern Massachusetts, from Plymouth to Newburyport, before the blizzard of January 26–28, 2015 (Blizzard of January 2015), to record the timing and magnitude of storm tide at select locations where forecasters had predicted the potential for coastal flooding. Additionally, water-level data were recorded and transmitted in near real-time from four permanent USGS tidal stations—three on Cape Cod and one near the mouth of the Merrimack River in Newburyport. The storm surge sensors were deployed at previously established fixed sites outfitted with presurveyed mounting brackets. The mounting brackets were installed in 2014 as part of the USGS Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamic (SWaTH) Network ( https://water.usgs.gov/floods/STN/ ), which was funded through congressional supplemental appropriations for the U.S. Department of the Interior after the devastating landfall of Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012 (Simmons and others, 2014). The USGS received this funding to enable better understanding of coastal flooding hazards in the region, to improve preparedness for future coastal storms, and to increase the resilience of coastal cities, infrastructure, and natural systems in the region (Buxton and others, 2013). The USGS established 163 monitoring locations along the New England coast for the SWaTH Network, including 70 sites in Massachusetts. The Blizzard of January 2015 was a powerful and destructive storm that threatened public safety and led to widespread cancellations and delays at transportation hubs, schools, and businesses in Massachusetts, including, for example, the closure of General Edward Lawrence Logan (Boston-Logan) International Airport and cancellation of all flights on January 27 and a statewide travel ban issued for January 28. A total of 24.6 inches of snowfall and winds up to 45 miles per hour (mi/hr) were recorded at the airport. Several coastal communities were affected and experienced flooding, overwash, and damage to seawalls, dwellings, and other infrastructure. In Scituate, the National Guard was sent to rescue people from flooding, and power was cut to some areas of the town to prevent electrical fires.

Massachusetts↗

U.S. Geological Survey 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption response in Hawai'i—After-action review

The 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption lasted 107 days, and now ranks as the most destructive event at Kilauea since 1790, and as one of the most costly volcanic disasters in U.S. history. Multiple simultaneous hazard events unfolded, including sustained seismic activity leading to collapse at the summit of Halema'uma'u crater and severe damage to the HVO facility, with additional eruption of lava in the Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone that progressively grew to a total of 24 fissure openings. In response to the complex and uncertain nature of the eruption, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team activities tended to coalesce around several interrelated core functional areas: science operations, emergency management and administration, and external communications. Upon cessation of the eruption, the USGS Hazard Response Executive Committee charged the Alaska Regional Office to lead an After-Action Review team, which focused on two basic questions: (1) what went well, and why?; and (2) what can be improved, and how? The purpose of the After-Action Review is to identify priorities for programmatic or policy improvements that the USGS can feasibly implement to advance strategic preparation for future disasters, and thereby reduce public vulnerabilities. Specifically, the review is intended to help USGS respond even better to the next eruption in Hawai'i or elsewhere by advancing any of the following goals: Design better planning scenarios; Enhance response team effectiveness; Assist local decision makers; Promote new areas of strategic research; and Streamline administrative, finance, and Incident Management Team support functions during a crisis to secure continuity of operations and essential records management.

Hawaii↗

Preliminary field geotechnical and geophysical logs from a drill hole in the Capps coal field, Cook Inlet region, Alaska

The drilling and logging activity described in this report was undertaken in August 1979, as part of the Energy Lands program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The general objectives of the project, of which this work is a part, are to provide an understanding of the nature, location, and extent of the engineering and environmental concerns in potential coal-development areas of the Cook Inlet region, Alaska. The geotechnical and geophysical logs presented in this report provide some of the basic physical-property and engineering data needed to evaluate geologic hazards, and to predict the response of geologic materials to large-scale coal mining and related development in the Capps coal field of the Beluga coal area. Specifically, the information may be used to help determine such things as natural- and cut-slope stability, spoil-pile stability, ground response to seismic activity, blasting effects, excavatability, bulking characteristics, ground-water conditions, and erosion potential.

Alaska↗

Probabilistic regional-scale liquefaction triggering modeling using 3D Gaussian processes

Liquefaction is a major cause of coseismic damages, occurring irregularly over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers in large earthquakes. Large variations in the extent and location of liquefaction have been observed in recent earthquakes, motivating the need for prediction methods that consider the spatial heterogeneity of geologic deposits at a regional scale. Contemporary regional-scale liquefaction hazard analyses are typically performed using only surficial data, which does not address the complicated subsurface mechanics and spatial variability associated with artificial fill and natural soil deposits. In this study, we develop a probabilistic, regional-scale, subsurface model using data from hundreds of borings to better understand subsurface conditions that could influence liquefaction. We then use this subsurface sample database to train Gaussian process models, yielding 3D independent random fields of groundwater depth, soil plasticity, and penetration resistance for each geologic unit. We incorporate the Gaussian process models into probabilistic liquefaction triggering procedures, producing 3D estimates of the probability of liquefaction for an example study area in Portland, Oregon. Near sampling locations, the variance of the Gaussian process models approaches the variance of site-specific liquefaction triggering procedures. Conversely, when no sample data are nearby to condition a Gaussian process, the variance approaches the marginal variance of the entire recorded dataset. Thus, the procedure described in this study unifies probabilistic site-specific and regional-scale liquefaction triggering procedures and provides an important step towards quantitative liquefaction hazard assessments for regionally distributed infrastructures, such as levees, pipelines, roadways, and electrical transmission facilities.

Oregon↗

Dissolved methane in groundwater, Upper Delaware River Basin, Pennsylvania and New York, 2007-12

The prospect of natural gas development from the Marcellus and Utica Shales has raised concerns about freshwater aquifers being vulnerable to contamination. Well owners are asking questions about subsurface methane, such as, “Does my well water have methane and is it safe to drink the water?” and “Is my well system at risk of an explosion hazard associated with a combustible gas like methane in groundwater?” This newfound awareness of methane contamination of water wells by stray gas migration is based upon studies such as Molofsky and others (2011) who document the widespread natural occurrence of methane in drinking-water wells in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. In the same county, Osborn and others (2011) identified elevated methane concentrations in selected drinking-water wells in the vicinity of Marcellus Shale gas-development activities, although pre-development groundwater samples were not available for comparison. A compilation of dissolved methane concentrations in groundwater for New York State was published by Kappel and Nystrom (2012). Recent work documenting the occurrence and distribution of methane in groundwater was completed in southern Sullivan County, Pennsylvania (Sloto, 2013). Additional work is ongoing with respect to monitoring for stray gases in groundwater (Jackson and others, 2013). These studies and their results indicate the importance of collecting baseline or pre-development data. While such data are being collected in some areas, published data on methane in groundwater are sparse in the Upper Delaware River Basin of Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey. To manage drinking-water resources in areas of gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing in the Upper Delaware River Basin, the natural occurrence of methane in the tri-state aquifers needs to be documented. The purpose of this report is to present data on dissolved methane concentrations in the groundwater in the Upper Delaware River Basin. The scope is restricted to data for Pennsylvania and New York, no U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) methane analyses are presently available for northwestern New Jersey.

New York;Pennsylvania↗

The Saguenay Fjord, Quebec, Canada: Integrating marine geotechnical and geophysical data for spatial seismic slope stability and hazard assessment

In 1996 a major flood occurred in the Saguenay region, Quebec, Canada, delivering several km3 of sediment to the Saguenay Fjord. Such sediments covered large areas of the, until then, largely contaminated fjord bottom, thus providing a natural capping layer. Recent swath bathymetry data have also shown that sediment landslides are widely present in the upper section of the Saguenay Fjord, and therefore, should a new event occur, it would probably expose the old contaminated sediments. Landslides in the Upper Saguenay Fjord are most probably due to earthquakes given its proximity to the Charlevoix seismic region and to that of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. In consequence, this study tries to characterize the permanent ground deformations induced by different earthquake scenarios from which shallow sediment landslides could be triggered. The study follows a Newmark analysis in which, firstly, the seismic slope performance is assessed, secondly, the seismic hazard analyzed, and finally an evaluation of the seismic landslide hazard is made. The study is based on slope gradients obtained from EM1000 multibeam bathymetry data as well as water content and undrained shear strength measurements made in box and gravity cores. Ground motions integrating local site conditions were simulated using synthetic time histories. The study assumes the region of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake as the most likely source area for earthquakes capable of inducing large ground motions in the Upper Saguenay region. Accordingly, we have analyzed several shaking intensities to deduce that generalized sediment displacements will begin to occur when moment magnitudes exceed 6. Major displacements, failure, and subsequent landslides could occur only from earthquake moment magnitudes exceeding 6.75. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting the Kansas Economy

Introduction High-resolution elevation data for Kansas inform decision making to improve the State’s economy. Existing elevation data coverage is used to support State water planning initiatives, facilitate infrastructure management, and improve resilience to natural disasters. The expanding availability of current and more accurate elevation data helps better support natural resources conservation, agriculture and precision farming, flood risk management, water supply planning, infrastructure and construction management, and geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Kansas. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Kansas is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $14.41 million in new benefits annually to the State. The top nine Kansas business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Kansas↗

Determination of radium in water

Radium isotopes are common radioactive constituents of natural waters. The concentration of radium-226 in potable water is of particular significance because this isotope is generally considered the most hazardous of all radionuclides with respect to ingestion. The approximate concentration of radium-226 is determined after coprecipitating radium with barium sulfate. The short-lived daughters of radium are allowed to grow for 10-12 days, then the alpha activity of the precipitate is measured and compared with that of a precipitate containing a known amount of radium-226. Concentrations of the individual alpha-emitting isotopes of radium-223, radium-224, and radium-226, are determined by coprecipitating radium first with lead sulfate, then with barium chloride, and finally with barium sulfate. This final precipitate is initially free of other alpha-emitting nuclides, thus permitting the isotopic composition to be determined by measuring the growth and decay of the alpha activity of the precipitate.

Water Supply Paper↗

One hundred years of volcano monitoring in Hawaii

In 2012 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the oldest of five volcano observatories in the United States, is commemorating the 100th anniversary of its founding. HVO's location, on the rim of Kilauea volcano (Figure 1)—one of the most active volcanoes on Earth—has provided an unprecedented opportunity over the past century to study processes associated with active volcanism and develop methods for hazards assessment and mitigation. The scientifically and societally important results that have come from 100 years of HVO's existence are the realization of one man's vision of the best way to protect humanity from natural disasters. That vision was a response to an unusually destructive decade that began the twentieth century, a decade that saw almost 200,000 people killed by the effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Hawai'i↗

Hazards, Disasters, and The National Map

Governments depend on base geographic information that describes the Earth's surface and locates features. They use this information for economic and community development, land and natural resource management, delivery of health services, and ensuring public safety. It is also the foundation for studying and solving geographically based problems. Geographic information underpins an increasingly large part of the Nation's economy. It is an important part of our national infrastructure in the same way that the Interstate Highway System is an essential element of our transportation network. Federal, State, and local response and management personnel must have current, reliable, and easily accessible geographic information and maps to prepare for, respond to, or recover from emergency situations. In life-threatening events, such as earthquakes, floods, or wildland fires, geographic information is essential for locating critical infrastructure and carrying out evacuation and rescue operations.

Fact Sheet↗

Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States. The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

Open-File Report↗

Investigation of fish communities in natural channel sections of the Mohawk River, New York

Little is known about the natural resources in the natural channel sections of the Mohawk River between Rome and Frankfort, New York, where the river channel runs separately from and parallel to the Erie Canal. This river section runs through multiple locations that are listed as active remediation sites under New York’s Inactive Hazardous Waste Disposal Site Program and has negligible public or commercial access. As a result, there is minimal recreational usage of this river section, and efforts to conduct biological sampling have been limited. To better understand the composition of fish communities and contaminant concentrations in the natural channel of the Mohawk River, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, sampled resident fish in the 34-kilometer section from the mouth of Oriskany Creek downstream to Frankfort. Fish communities were sampled using boat electrofishing during 2021, 2023, and 2024 across multiple reaches within this section. These data were used to estimate species richness (number of species), relative abundance and biomass (catch rates), population size structure (distribution of lengths), and fish condition (a proxy for health). Some gamefish specimens were also analyzed to determine contaminant concentrations in fish tissue. A total of 1,531 individual fish and 38 fish species were captured across all surveys. Seventeen of the 38 (45 percent) species were classified as native to the Mohawk River watershed, whereas 21 of the 38 (55 percent) species were classified as nonnative. Some popular gamefish species such as largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) were abundant in most reaches, whereas others such as walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and northern pike ( Esox lucius ) were found sporadically. Only one round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) was captured, indicating that this high-profile invasive species remains uncommon in this habitat. A backwater reach had the greatest relative abundance and condition of many species. This indicates connected lentic habitats such as oxbows and backwaters may be important nursery and refuge areas in the aquatic ecosystem. Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in fish tissue were highly elevated relative to the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) fish consumption “don’t eat” advisory guideline. Some specimens exceeded the guideline by an order of magnitude or more, particularly those from a localized area downstream from the Utica Harbor Dam. Concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) often approached the NYSDOH “don’t eat” consumption guideline but only one sample exceeded the guideline. Concentrations of other contaminants such as mercury and pesticides were consistently measured at less than the “don’t eat” consumption guidelines. These data indicate PCBs remain the primary contaminant of concern in the natural channel of the Mohawk River and are readily bioaccumulating in aquatic organisms despite prior remediation measures. Taken together, the findings in this report are intended to inform future decisions related to fisheries management, public access, recreational usage, and fish consumption advisories.

New York↗

Organic and inorganic species in produced water: Implications for water reuse

Currently 20-30 billion barrels of formation water are co-produced annually in the USA with conventional oil and natural gas. The large database on the geochemistry of this produced water shows salinities that vary widely from ~5,000 to >350,000 mg/L TDS. Chloride, Na and Ca are generally the dominant ions, and concentrations of Fe, Mn, B, NH3 and dissolved organics, including, BTEX, phenols and poly aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may be relatively high. Hazardous concentrations of NORMs, including Ra-226 and Rn-222 have been reported in produced water from several states. Coal-bed methane (CBM) wells currently produce close to a billion barrels of water and deliver ~8% of total natural gas. The salinity of this produced water generally is lower than that of water from petroleum wells; salinity commonly is 1,000-20,000 mg/L, but ranges to150,000 mg/L TDS. Most CBM wells produce Na-HCO3-Cl type water that is low in trace metals and has no reported NORMs. This water commonly has no oil and grease and has relatively low DOC, but its organic composition has not been characterized in detail. The water is disposed of by injection into saline aquifers, through evaporation and/or percolation in disposal pits, road spreading, and surface discharge. Water that has an acceptable salinity and sodium absorption ratio (SAR) is considered acceptable for surface discharge and for injection into freshwater aquifers. As an alternative to costly disposal, low salinity produced water is being considered for reclamation, especially in the arid western USA. The cost of reclaiming this water to meet irrigation, industrial and drinking water standards was evaluated in a 10 gpm pilot field study at Placerita oil field, California. This produced water had a low salinity of ~8,000 mg/L, but high concentration of Si and organics. Removal of B, Si, NH3 and especially organics from this water proved difficult, and the estimated treatment cost was high at $0.08-$0.39/bbl for water treated for industrial and municipal uses.

Conference Paper↗

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗