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Land Cover Characterization Program

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long heritage of leadership and innovation in land use and land cover mapping. The USGS Anderson system defined the principles for land use and land cover mapping that have been the model both nationally and internationally for more than 20 years. The Land Cover Characterization Program (LCCP) is founded on the premise that the Nation's needs for land cover and land use data are diverse and increasingly sophisticated. The range of projects, programs, and organizations that use land cover data to meet their planning, management, development, and assessment objectives has expanded significantly. The reasons for this are numerous, and include the improved capabilities provided by geographic information systems, better and more data-intensive analytic models, and increasing requirements for improved information for decision making. The overall goals of the LCCP are to: (1) identify the broad range of user requirements; (2) identify sources, develop procedures, and organize partners to deliver data and information to meet user requirements. The LCCP builds on the heritage and success of previous USGS land use and land cover programs and projects. It will be compatible with current concepts of government operations, the changing needs of the land use and land cover data users, and the technological tools with which the data are applied.

Fact Sheet↗

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Open-File Report↗

Land-cover change in the central irregular plains, 1973-2000

Spearheaded by the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Land Cover Trends is a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary United States land-use and land-cover change. Using the EPA Level III ecoregions as the geographic framework, scientists process geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000 and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes for these periods were interpreted from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land Use Land Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The rates of land-cover change are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. These change statistics are applicable for different levels of scale, including total change for the individual sample blocks and change estimates for the entire ecoregion. The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change but instead point to geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to various factors including environmental, technological, and socioeconomic.

Open-File Report↗

A landscape indicator approach to the identification and articulation of the consequences of land-cover change in the Mid-Atlantic Region, 1973-2001

Landscape indicators, derived from land-use and land-cover data, hydrology, nitrate deposition, and elevation data, were used by Jones and others (2001a) to calculate the ecological consequences of land-cover change. Nitrate loading and physical bird habitat were modeled from 1973 and 1992 land-cover and other spatial data for the Mid-Atlantic region. Utilizing the same methods, this study extends the analysis another decade with the use of the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset. Land-cover statistics and trends are calculated for three time periods: 1973-1992, 1992-2001 and 1973-2001. In addition, high-resolution aerial photographs (1 meter or better ground-sample distance) were acquired and analyzed for thirteen pairs of adjacent USGS 7.5 minute quadrangle maps in areas where distinct positive or negative changes to nitrogen loading and bird habitat were previously calculated. During the entire 30 year period, the data show that there was extensive loss of agriculture and forest area and a major increase in urban land-cover classes. However, the majority of the conversion of other classes to urban occurred during the 1992-2001 period. During the 1973-1992 period, there was only moderate increase in urban area, while there was an inverse relationship between agricultural change and forest change. In general, forest gain and agricultural loss was found in areas of improving landscape indicators, and forest loss and agricultural gain was found to occur in areas of declining indicators related to habitat and nitrogen loadings, which was generally confirmed by the aerial photographic analysis. In terms of the specific model results, bird habitat, which is mainly related to the extent of forest cover, declined overall with forest extent, but was also affected more in the decline of habitat quality. Nitrate loading, which is mainly related to agricultural land cover actually improved from 1992-2001, and in the overall study, mainly due to the conversion of agriculture to forests and urban. The high-resolution imagery analysis was significant in that it confirmed, at a very local level, the specific land-cover changes that were driving the landscape metrics and model results that were calculated from moderate resolution land-cover data and models. These were generally subtle changes in patch size of agriculture, forest, and urban areas, but had substantial effects on bird habitat and nitrogen loadings. This analysis of high-resolution imagery demonstrates and confirms the important ability of moderate-resolution land-cover data to capture significant landscape-level activity that is directly related to specific metrics of ecological significance. It also demonstrates consistent landscape-scale relationships between data derived from high-resolution, moderate-resolution and landscape-model sources. Finally, many of the areas of improvement and decline in bird habitat and nitrogen loadings appear to be potentially regional in nature and likely reflect some local trend in landscape activity. Although the use of ecoregions as sampling units has been criticized in recent years, these results show that basic changes in Level 1 land-cover categories, such as forest and agriculture, may still reflect ecoregional patterns and considerations at some scale of mapping and analysis. This is a potentially important area for future landscape-indicator research. This and other follow-on research opportunities are discussed.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of the effects of water withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change on streamflow in the Blackstone River basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Streamflow in many parts of the Blackstone River Basin in south-central Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is altered by water-supply withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change associated with a growing population. Simulations from a previously developed and calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model for the basin were used to evaluate the effects of water withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change on streamflow. Most of the simulations were done for recent (1996–2001) conditions and potential buildout conditions in the future when all available land is developed to provide a long-range assessment of the effects of possible future human activities on water resources in the basin. The effects of land-use change were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term (1960–2004) simulations with (1) undeveloped land use, (2) 1995–1999 land use, and (3) potential buildout land use at selected sites across the basin. Flow-duration curves for these land-use scenarios were similar, indicating that land-use change, as represented in the HSPF model, had little effect on flow in the major tributary streams and rivers in the basin. However, land-use change—particularly increased effective impervious area—could potentially have greater effects on the hydrology, water quality, and aquatic habitat of the smaller streams in the basin. The effects of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term simulations with (1) no withdrawals and return flows, (2) actual (measured) 1996–2001 withdrawals and wastewater-return flows, and (3) potential withdrawals and wastewater-return flows at buildout. Overall, the results indicated that water use had a much larger effect on streamflow than did land use, and that the location and magnitude of wastewater-return flows were important for lessening the effects of withdrawals on streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin. Ratios of long-term (1960–2004) simulated flows with 1996–2001 water use (representing the net effect of withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) to long-term simulated flows with no water use indicated that, for many reaches, 1996–2001 water use did not deplete flows at the 90-percent flow duration substantially compared to flows unaffected by water use. Flows generally were more severely depleted in the reaches that include surface-water supplies for the larger cities in the basin (Kettle and Tatnuck Brooks, Worcester, Mass. water supply; Quinsigamond River, Shrewsbury, Mass. water supply; Crookfall Brook, Woonsocket, R.I. water supply; and Abbott Run, Pawtucket, R.I. water supply). These reaches did not have substantial wastewater-return flows that could offset the effects of the withdrawals. In contrast, wastewater-return flows from the Upper Blackstone Wastewater Treatment Facility in Millbury, Mass. increased flows at the 90-percent flow duration in the main stem of the Blackstone River compared to no-water-use conditions. Under the assumptions used to develop the buildout scenario, nearly all of the new water withdrawals were returned to the Blackstone River Basin at municipal wastewater-treatment plants or on-site septic systems. Consequently, buildout generally had small effects on simulated low flows in the Blackstone River and most of the major tributary streams compared to flows with 1996–2001 water use. To evaluate the effects of water use on flows in the rivers and major tributary streams in the Rhode Island part of the basin in greater detail, the magnitudes of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows in relation to simulated streamflow were calculated as unique ratios for individual HSPF subbasins, total contributing areas to HSPF subbasins, and total contributing areas to the major tributary streams. For recent conditions (1996–2001 withdrawals and 1995–1999 land use), ratios of average summer (June through September) withdrawals to the long-term (1960–2004) medians of average summer streamflow simulated in the absence of water use ranged from 0.039 to 2.5 with a median value of 0.11 for total contributing areas to HSPF subbasins. The largest ratios of withdrawal rates to streamflow were for Crookfall Brook and Abbott Run, the subbasins with major withdrawals for municipal water supply. The smallest ratios were for the rural subbasins in the Branch River drainage area in the southwestern part of the basin. For recent conditions, ratios of average summer wastewater-return flows to average summer streamflows ranged from 0.0 to 0.20 with a median value of 0.029 for total contributing areas to HSPF subbasins. The largest ratios of wastewater-return flows to streamflows were for the subbasins that contained return flows from municipal wastewater-treatment plants and the subbasins along the Blackstone River because of high wastewater-return-flow rates from upstream facilities. Under the assumptions used to develop the buildout analysis, withdrawal and return-flow ratios were estimated to increase for most of the HSPF subbasins in the Rhode Island part of the basin. Ratios more than doubled for some subbasins, but the large increases mainly were for subbasins that had low ratios in 1996–2001. The HSPF model also was used to estimate the effects of water-conservation measures on low flows in rivers and major tributary streams in the Rhode Island part of the basin, the contribution of wastewater-return flows to streamflow in the Blackstone River, and the effects of changes to two local water supplies in Rhode Island. Water-conservation measures were evaluated by reducing 1996–2001 withdrawals by 20 percent. Simulations with 20-percent reductions in withdrawal rates indicated that conservation measures would result in appreciable increases in low flows in the subbasins with the highest withdrawal rates in the Rhode Island part of the Blackstone River Basin, whereas the effects on streamflow would be much less pronounced in subbasins with lower withdrawal rates. The contribution of wastewater-return flows to streamflow in the Blackstone River was evaluated by comparing simulated flows with and without municipal wastewater-return flows. Under typical summer low-flow conditions, treated wastewater was a major component of streamflow (35 to 50 percent) in the Blackstone River, and the percentage of treated wastewater was larger during the driest periods. The simulations conducted to evaluate changes to local water supplies (effects of potential withdrawals from an inactive well adjacent to Slatersville Reservoir in North Smithfield on flows in the Branch River, and the effects of connecting the town of North Smithfield to the water-supply system for the city of Woonsocket, Rhode Island) indicated that each of these activities would alter low flows only slightly in the associated stream reaches.

Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗

Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.

Arkansas↗

Ecosystem services valuation to support decisionmaking on public lands—A case study of the San Pedro River watershed, Arizona

This report details the findings of the Bureau of Land Management–U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study. This project evaluated alternative methods and tools that quantify and value ecosystem services, and it assessed the tools’ readiness for use in the Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking process. We tested these tools on the San Pedro River watershed in northern Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. The study area includes the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (managed by the Bureau of Land Management), which has been a focal point for conservation activities and scientific research in recent decades. We applied past site-specific primary valuation studies, value transfer, the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) models to value locally important ecosystem services for the San Pedro River watershed—water, carbon, biodiversity, and cultural values. We tested these approaches on a series of scenarios to evaluate ecosystem service changes and the ability of the tools to accommodate scenarios. A suite of additional tools were either at too early a stage of development to run, were proprietary, or were place-specific tools inappropriate for application to the San Pedro River watershed. We described the strengths and weaknesses of these additional ecosystem service tools against a series of evaluative criteria related to their usefulness for Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking. Using these tools, we quantified gains or losses of ecosystem services under three categories of scenarios: urban growth, mesquite management, and water augmentation. These results quantify tradeoffs and could be useful for decisionmaking within Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Results are accompanied by a relatively high level of uncertainty associated with model outputs, valuation methods, and discount rates applied. Further guidance on representing uncertainty and applying uncertain results in decisionmaking would benefit both tool developers and those offices in using ecosystem services to compare management tradeoffs. Decisionmakers and Bureau of Land Management managers at the State-, district-, and field-office level would also benefit from continuing model improvements, training, and guidance on tool use that can be provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of the Interior. Tradeoffs were identified in the level of effort needed to parameterize and run tools and the amount and quality of information they provide to the decision process. We found the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, Ecosystem Services Review, and United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre Ecosystem Services Toolkit to be immediately feasible for application by the Bureau of Land Management, given proper guidance on their use. It is also feasible for the Bureau of Land Management to use the InVEST model, but in early 2012 the process of parameterizing the model required resources and expertise that are unlikely to be available in most Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Application of past primary valuation is feasible, but developing new primary-valuation studies is too time consuming for regular application. Value transfer approaches (aside from the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit) are best applied carefully on the basis of guidelines described in this report, to reduce transfer error. The ARIES model can provide useful information in regions modeled in the past (Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington), but it lacks some features that will improve its usability, such as a generalized model that could be applied anywhere in the United States. Eleven other tools described in this report could become useful as the tools more fully develop, in high-profile cases for which additional resources are available for tool application or in case-study regions where place-specific models have already been developed. To improve the value of these tools in decisionmaking, we suggest scientific needs that agencies such as U.S. Geological Survey can help meet—for instance, development and support of data archives. Such archives could greatly reduce resource needs and improve the reliability and consistency of results. Given the rapid state of evolution in the field, periodic follow-up studies on ecosystem services tools would help to ensure that the Bureau of Land Management and other public land management agencies are kept up to date on new tools and features that bring ecosystem services closer to readiness for use in regular decisionmaking.

Arizona;Sonora↗

Land subsidence along the Delta-Mendota Canal in the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley, California, 2003-10

Extensive groundwater withdrawal from the unconsolidated deposits in the San Joaquin Valley caused widespread aquifer-system compaction and resultant land subsidence from 1926 to 1970—locally exceeding 8.5 meters. The importation of surface water beginning in the early 1950s through the Delta-Mendota Canal and in the early 1970s through the California Aqueduct resulted in decreased pumping, initiation of water-level recovery, and a reduced rate of compaction in some areas of the San Joaquin Valley. However, drought conditions during 1976–77 and 1987–92, and drought conditions and regulatory reductions in surface-water deliveries during 2007–10, decreased surface-water availability, causing pumping to increase, water levels to decline, and renewed compaction. Land subsidence from this compaction has reduced freeboard and flow capacity of the Delta-Mendota Canal, the California Aqueduct, and other canals that deliver irrigation water and transport floodwater. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority, assessed land subsidence in the vicinity of the Delta-Mendota Canal as part of an effort to minimize future subsidence-related damages to the canal. The location, magnitude, and stress regime of land-surface deformation during 2003–10 were determined by using extensometer, Global Positioning System (GPS), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), spirit leveling, and groundwater-level data. Comparison of continuous GPS, shallow extensometer, and groundwater-level data, combined with results from a one-dimensional model, indicated the vast majority of the compaction took place beneath the Corcoran Clay, the primary regional confining unit. Land-surface deformation measurements indicated that much of the northern portion of the Delta-Mendota Canal (Clifton Court Forebay to Check 14) was fairly stable or minimally subsiding on an annual basis; some areas showed seasonal periods of subsidence and of uplift that resulted in little or no longer-term elevation loss. Many groundwater levels in this northern area did not reach historical lows during 2003–10, indicating that deformation in this region was primarily elastic. Although the northern portion of the Delta-Mendota Canal was relatively stable, land-surface deformation measurements indicated the southern portion of the Delta-Mendota Canal (Checks 15–21) subsided as part of a large subsidence feature centered about 15 kilometers northeast of the Delta-Mendota Canal, south of the town of El Nido. Results of InSAR analysis indicated at least 540 millimeters of subsidence near the San Joaquin River and the Eastside Bypass during 2008–10, which is part of a 3,200 square-kilometer area—including the southern part of the Delta-Mendota Canal—affected by 20 millimeters or more of subsidence during the same period. Calculations indicated that the subsidence rate doubled in 2008 in some areas. The GPS surveys done in 2008 and 2010 confirmed the high subsidence rate measured by using InSAR for the same period. Water levels in many shallow and deep wells in this area declined during 2007–10; water levels in many deep wells reached historical lows, indicating that subsidence measured during this period was largely inelastic. InSAR-derived subsidence maps for various periods during 2003–10 showed that the area of maximum active subsidence (that is, the largest rates of subsidence) shifted from its historical (1926–70) location southwest of Mendota to south of El Nido. Continued groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the San Joaquin Valley is important because (1) regulatory- and drought-related reductions in surface-water deliveries since 1976 have resulted in increased groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence, and (2) land use and associated groundwater pumping continue to change throughout the valley. The availability of surface water remains uncertain; even during record-setting precipitation years, such as 2010–11, water deliveries have fallen short of requests and groundwater pumping was required to meet the irrigation demand. Due to the expected continued demand for irrigation supply water and the limitations and uncertainty of surface-water supplies, groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence is likely to continue in the future. Spatially detailed information on land subsidence is needed to facilitate minimization of future subsidence-related damages to the Delta-Mendota Canal and other infrastructure in the San Joaquin Valley. The integration of subsidence, deformation, and water-level measurements—particularly continuous measurements—enables the analysis of aquifer-system response to increased groundwater pumping, which in turn, enables identification of the preconsolidation head and calculation of aquifer-system storage properties. This information can be used to improve numerical model simulations of groundwater flow and aquifer-system compaction and allow for consideration of land subsidence in the evaluation of water-resource management alternatives.

California↗

Detection and measurement of land subsidence using Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Coachella Valley, California, 1996-98

Land subsidence associated with ground-water-level declines has been recognized as a potential problem in Coachella Valley, California. Since the early 1920s, ground water has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley, resulting in water-level declines as large as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the lower Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in ground-water pumping and a recovery of water levels from the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, the demand for water in the valley has exceeded the deliveries of imported surface water, again resulting in increased pumping and ground-water-level declines. The magnitude and temporal occurrence of land subsidence in the lower Coachella Valley are not well known; data are sparse and accuracy varies. Also, the area is tectonically active and has subsided during the past several million years, which further complicates interpretations of the data. Land-surface-elevation data have been collected by many agencies using various methods and different geographic scales; because of this, the -150 millimeters (-0.5 foot) of subsidence determined for the southern parts of the valley for 1930-96 may have a possible error of plus or minus (?)90 millimeters (?0.3 foot). The location, extent, and magnitude of vertical land-surface changes from 1996 to 1998 were determined using Global Positioning System (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) methods. GPS measurements for 14 monuments in the lower Coachella Valley indicate that the vertical land-surface changes from 1996 to 1998 ranged from -13 to -67 millimeters ? 40 millimeters (-0.04 to -0.22 foot ?0.13 foot). Changes at seven of the monuments exceeded the measurement error of ?40 millimeters (?0.13 foot), which indicates that small amounts of land subsidence occurred at these monuments between 1996 and 1998. Some of the water levels measured in wells near several of these monuments during 1996-98 were the lowest water levels in the recorded histories of the wells. The possible relation between the stresses caused by historically low water levels and the measured vertical changes in land surface suggests that the preconsolidation stress of the aquifer system may have been exceeded during this period and that subsidence may be permanent. Comparisons of several paired monuments and wells indicated that the relation between short-term ground-water-level changes and vertical changes in land surface in the lower Coachella Valley is not clearly defined. Results of InSAR measurements made between 1996 and 1998 indicate that vertical changes in land surface, ranging from about -20 to -70 millimeters ? 5-10 millimeters (-0.07 to -0.23 foot ? 0.02-0.03 foot), occurred in three areas of the Coachella Valley--near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and Lake Cahuilla. The areas of subsidence near Palm Desert and Indian Wells coincide with areas of substantial ground-water production during 1996-98. The Coachella Valley Water District reported that they had no ground-water production wells in the Lake Cahuilla area but that there may be private production wells in the area. Production from these wells or possibly tectonic activity may be contributing to or causing the subsidence. The geodetic network used for the GPS measurements described in this report covers the area from the Salton Sea on the south to just northwest of Indio. The maps processed using InSAR overlap the part of the geodetic network west of Coachella and north of Lake Cahuilla, and include the Palm Desert area. Both methods of measuring vertical land-surface changes, GPS and InSAR, were used to characterize vertical land-surface changes from the Palm Desert area to the Salton Sea. Because InSAR produces more spatially detailed data over large areas, it generally was useful where vertical land-surface changes were previously unrecognized, such as the

California↗

Relation of Land Use to Streamflow and Water Quality at Selected Sites in the City of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, 1993-98

Streamflow and water-quality data were collected at nine sites in the city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, during 1993–97. Six of the basins drained areas having relatively homogeneous land use and were less than 0.3 square mile in size; the other three basins had mixed land use. Atmospheric wet-deposition data were collected in three of the basins during 1997–98. Streamflow yield varied by a factor of six among the sites, despite the fact that sites were in close proximity to one another. The lowest yield occurred in a residential basin having no curbs and gutters. The variability in mean flow from these small, relatively homogeneous basins is much greater than is found in streams draining basins that are 10 square miles in size or larger. The ratio of runoff to rainfall in the developing basin appears to have increased during the study period. Low-flow suspended-sediment concentrations in the study basins were about the same magnitude as median stormflow concentrations in Piedmont agricultural basins. Sediment concentrations were higher in the mixed land-use basins and in the developing basin. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in these basins generally were an order of magnitude greater than median concentrations in the other five basins, which had stable land use. Some of the highest total nitrogen concentrations occurred in residential basins. Total nitrogen concentrations detected in this study were about twice as high as concentrations in small Piedmont streams affected by agriculture and urbanization. Most of the total nitrogen consisted of organic nitrogen at all of the sites except in two residential land- use basins. The high ammonia content of lawn fertilizer may explain the higher ammonia concentration in stormflow from residential basins. The two basins with the highest median suspended-sediment concentrations also had the highest total phosphorus concentrations. Median total phosphorus concentrations measured in this study were several times greater than median concentrations in small Piedmont streams but almost an order of magnitude less than total phosphorus concentrations in Charlotte streams during the late 1970's. Bacteria concentrations are not correlated to streamflow. The highest bacteria levels were found in 'first-flush' samples. Higher fecal coliform concentrations were associated with residential land use. Chromium, copper, lead, and zinc occurred at all sites in concentrations that exceeded the North Carolina ambient water-quality standards. The median chromium concentration in the developing basin was more than double the median concentration at any other site. As with chromium, the maximum copper concentration in the developing basin was almost an order of magnitude greater than maximum concentrations at other sites. The highest zinc concentration also occurred in the developing basin. Samples were analyzed for 121 organic compounds and 57 volatile organic compounds. Forty-five organic compounds and seven volatile organic compounds were detected. At least five compounds were detected at all sites, and 15 or more compounds were detected at all sites except two mixed land-use basins. Atrazine, carbaryl, and metolachlor were detected at eight sites, and 90 percent of all samples had measurable amounts of atrazine. About 60 percent of the samples had detectable levels of carbaryl and metolachlor. Diazinon and malathion were measured in samples from seven sites, and methyl parathion, chlorpyrifos, alachlor, and 2,4-D were detected at four or more sites. The fewest compounds were detected in the larger, mixed land-use basins. Residential basins and the developing basin had the greatest number of detections of organic compounds. The pH of wet atmospheric deposition in three Charlotte basins was more variable than the pH measured at a National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)site in Rowan County. Summer pH values were significantly lower than pH measured during the remainder of the year, probably as a result of poorer air quality and different weather patterns during the summer. Concentrations of ammonia and nitrate at the Charlotte sites generally were lower than those measured at the NADP site. Summer concentrations of ammonia and nitrate at both the Charlotte and the NADP sites were significantly greater than concentrations measured during the remainder of the year, again probably reflecting poorer summertime air-quality conditions. Sediment yields at the nine sites ranged from 77 tons per square mile per year in a residential basin to 4,700 tons per square mile per year at the developing basin. Residential areas that have been built-out for several years and industrial areas appear, in general, to have the lowest sediment yields for the Charlotte study sites. Average annual yields of total nitrogen loads ranged from about 1.7 tons per square mile to 6.6 tons per square mile. Average annual total phosphorus yields for all sites except the developing basin were less than 1.4 tons per square mile. Phosphorus yield at the developing basin was 13 .4 tons per square mile per year. Biochemical oxygen demand loading in 1993 from all of the permitted wastewater-treatment facilities in Charlotte and Mecklenburg County was about 1.5 tons per day or 548 tons per year. Converting this point-source loading to an annual yield for the 528 square-mile area of Mecklenburg County is equivalent to 1.03 tons per square mile per year, or a yield much lower than any of the yields measured at the nine study sites. In other words, biochemical oxygen demand loading from nonpoint sources in Mecklenburg County probably exceeds loading from all point sources by a large amount. Loads and average annual yields were computed for five metals-chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc. The highest annual average yields for all five of these metals were in the developing basin, which also had the highest annual average suspended-sediment yield of all the sites. Estimated wet-deposition watershed loadings suggest that atmospheric deposition may be an important source of some metals, including chromium, copper, lead, and zinc, in Charlotte storm water. Storm water from residential land-use basins has higher concentrations of total nitrogen, fecal coliform bacteria, and organic compounds than do other land-use types. Reductions in suspended-sediment concentrations should generally result in reduced export of phosphorus and metals. Stable land uses, such as industrial areas and built-out residential basins, have lower sediment concentrations in stormwater than do mixed land use and developing basins. Finally, atmospheric deposition may be an important source of nitrogen and some metals in Charlotte stormwater.

North Carolina↗

Land cover characterization and mapping of South America for the year 2010 using Landsat 30 m satellite data

Detailed and accurate land cover and land cover change information is needed for South America because the continent is in constant flux, experiencing some of the highest rates of land cover change and forest loss in the world. The land cover data available for the entire continent are too coarse (250 m to 1 km) for resource managers, government and non-government organizations, and Earth scientists to develop conservation strategies, formulate resource management options, and monitor land cover dynamics. We used Landsat 30 m satellite data of 2010 and prepared the land cover database of South America using state-of-the-science remote sensing techniques. We produced regionally consistent and locally relevant land cover information by processing a large volume of data covering the entire continent. Our analysis revealed that in 2010, 50% of South America was covered by forests, 2.5% was covered by water, and 0.02% was covered by snow and ice. The percent forest area of South America varies from 9.5% in Uruguay to 96.5% in French Guiana. We used very high resolution (<5 m) satellite data to validate the land cover product. The overall accuracy of the 2010 South American 30-m land cover map is 89% with a Kappa coefficient of 79%. Accuracy of barren areas needs to improve possibly using multi-temporal Landsat data. An update of land cover and change database of South America with additional land cover classes is needed. The results from this study are useful for developing resource management strategies, formulating biodiversity conservation strategies, and regular land cover monitoring and forecasting.

Remote Sensing↗

Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively), to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

Alabama, Georgia↗

Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: Linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate

Sediment is one of the leading pollutants in rivers and streams across the United States (US) and the world. Between 1992 and 2012, concentrations of annual mean suspended sediment decreased at over half of the 137 stream sites assessed across the contiguous US. Increases occurred at less than 25 % of the sites, and the direction of change was uncertain at the remaining 25 %. Sediment trends were characterized using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model, and decreases in sediment ranged from −95 % to −8.5 % of the 1992 concentration. To explore potential drivers of these changes, the sediment trends were (1) parsed into two broad contributors of change, changes in land management versus changes in the streamflow regime, and (2) grouped by land use of the watershed and correlated to concurrent changes in land use or land cover (land use/cover), hydrology and climate variables and static/long-term watershed characteristics. At 83 % of the sites, changes in land management (captured by changes in the concentration–streamflow relationship over time; C–Q relationship) contributed more to the change in the sediment trend than changes in the streamflow regime alone (i.e., any systematic change in the magnitude, frequency or timing of flows). However, at >50 % of the sites, changes in the streamflow regime contributed at least a 5 % change in sediment, and at 11 sites changes in the streamflow regime contributed over half the change in sediment, indicating that at many sites changes in streamflow were not the main driver of changes in sediment but were often an important supporting factor. Correlations between sediment trends and concurrent changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate were often stronger at sites draining watersheds with more homogenous, human-related land uses (i.e., agricultural and urban lands) compared to mixed-use or undeveloped lands. At many sites, decreases in sediment occurred despite small-to-moderate increases in the amount of urban or agricultural land in the watershed, suggesting conservation efforts and best-management practices (BMPs) used to reduce sediment runoff to streams may be successful, up to a point, as lands are converted to urban and agricultural uses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Relations among geology, physiography, land use, and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo and Current River systems, Missouri and Arkansas

This study investigated links between drainage-basin characteristics and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas and the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri. It was designed as an associative study - the two parks were divided into their principle tributary drainage basins and then basin-scale and stream-habitat data sets were gathered and compared between them. Analyses explored the relative influence of different drainage-basin characteristics on stream habitat conditions. They also investigated whether a relation between land use and stream characteristics could be detected after accounting for geologic and physiographic differences among drainage basins. Data were collected for three spatial scales: tributary drainage basins, tributary stream reaches, and main-stem river segments of the Current and Buffalo Rivers. Tributary drainage-basin characteristics were inventoried using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and included aspects of drainage-basin physiography, geology, and land use. Reach-scale habitat surveys measured channel longitudinal and cross-sectional geometry, substrate particle size and embeddedness, and indicators of channel stability. Segment-scale aerial-photo based inventories measured gravel-bar area, an indicator of coarse sediment load, along main-stem rivers. Relations within and among data sets from each spatial scale were investigated using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. Study basins encompassed physiographically distinct regions of the Ozarks. The Buffalo River system drains parts of the sandstone-dominated Boston Mountains and of the carbonate-dominated Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The Current River system is within the Salem Plateau. Analyses of drainage-basin variables highlighted the importance of these physiographic differences and demonstrated links among geology, physiography, and land-use patterns. Buffalo River tributaries have greater relief, steeper slopes, and more streamside bluffs than the Current River tributaries. Land use patterns in both river systems correlate with physiography - cleared land area is negatively associated with drainage-basin average slope. Both river systems are dominantly forested (0-35 per-cent cleared land), however, the potential for landscape disturbance may be greater in the Buffalo River system where a larger proportion of cleared land occurs on steep slopes (>15 degrees). When all drainage basins are grouped together, reach-scale channel characteristics show the strongest relations with drainage-basin physiography. Bankfull channel geometry and residual pool dimensions are positively correlated with drainage area and topographic relief variables. After accounting for differences in drainage area, channel dimensions in Buffalo River tributaries tend to be larger than in Current River tributaries. This trend is consistent with the flashy runoff and large storm flows that can be generated in rugged, sandstone-dominate terrain. Substrate particle size is also most strongly associated with physiography; particle size is positively correlated with topographic relief variables. When tributaries are subset by river system, relations with geology and land use variables become apparent. Buffalo River tributaries with larger proportions of carbonate bedrock and cleared land area have shallower channels, better-sorted, gravel-rich substrate, and more eroding banks than those with little cleared land and abundant sandstone bedrock. Gravel-bar area on the Buffalo River main stem was also larger within 1-km of carbonate-rich tributary junctions. Because geology and cleared land are themselves correlated, relations with anthropogenic and natural factors could often not be separated. Channel characteristics in the Current River system show stronger associations with physiography than with land use. Channels are shallower and have finer substrates in the less rugged, karst-rich, western basins than in the

Arkansas, Missouri↗

Identifying policy-relevant indicators for assessing landscape vegetation patterns to inform planning and management on multiple use public lands

Understanding the structure and composition of landscapes can empower agencies to effectively manage public lands for multiple uses while sustaining land health. Many landscape metrics exist, but they are not often used in public land decision-making. Our objectives were to (1) develop and (2) apply a process for identifying a core set of indicators that public land managers can use to understand landscape-level resource patterns on and around public lands. We first developed a process for identifying indicators that are grounded in policy, feasible to quantify using existing data and resources, and useful for managers. We surveyed landscape monitoring efforts by other agencies, gathered science and agency input on monitoring goals, and quantified the prevalence of potential indicators in agency land health standards to identify five landscape indicators: amount, distribution, patch size, structural connectivity, and diversity of vegetation types. We then conducted pilot applications in four bureau of land management (BLM) field offices in Arizona, California, and Colorado to refine procedures for quantifying the indicators and assess the utility of the indicators for managers. Results highlighted the dominance of upland and the limited extent of riparian/wetland vegetation communities, moderate connectivity of priority vegetation patches, and lower diversity of native vegetation types on BLM compared to non-BLM lands. Agency staff can use the indicators to inform the development of quantitative resource management objectives in land use plans, evaluate progress in meeting those objectives, quantify potential impacts of proposed actions, and as a foundation for an all-lands approach to landscape-level management across public lands.

Environmental Management↗

Accelerating elevation gain indicates land loss associated with erosion in Mississippi River Deltaic Plain tidal wetlands

In recent years, the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) has experienced the highest rates of wetland loss in the USA. Although the process of vertical drowning has been heavily studied in coastal wetlands, less is known about the relationship between elevation change and land loss in wetlands that are experiencing lateral erosion and the contribution of erosion to land loss in the MRDP. We quantified relationships of elevation change and land change in ten submerging tidal wetlands and found that, despite significant land loss, elevation trajectories in seven of the land loss study sites were positive. Furthermore, we observed an acceleration in elevation gain preceding the conversion from vegetated marsh to open water. To identify regional contributions of lateral erosion to land loss, we quantified the relationship of elevation change and land change in 159 tidal marsh sites in the MRDP. Approximately half the sites were persistently losing land, and 82% of these sites were vulnerable to erosion, identifying erosion as a dominant mechanism of coastal wetland loss in this region. Notably, the sites that were vulnerable to erosion were experiencing land loss while also gaining elevation, and sites with the highest land loss exhibited accelerating elevation gain. Together, these data illustrate that (1) erosion is a dominant mechanism of wetland loss in the MRDP, (2) accelerated elevation gain is an indicator of erosion, and (3) consideration of elevation change trajectories within the context of land change is critical for providing accurate coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

Louisiana↗

Multi-scale effects of land cover and urbanization on the habitat suitability of an endangered toad

Habitat degradation, entwined with land cover change, is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Effects of land cover change on species can be direct (when habitat is converted to alternative land cover types) or indirect (when land outside of the species habitat is altered). Hydrologic and ecological connections between terrestrial and aquatic systems are well understood, exemplifying how spatially disparate land cover conditions may influence aquatic habitats, but are rarely examined. We sought to quantify relative effects of land cover at two different but interacting scales on habitat suitability for the endangered arroyo toad ( Anaxyrus californicus ). Based on an existing distribution model for the arroyo toad and available land cover data, we estimated effects of land cover along streams and within entire watersheds on habitat suitability using structural equation modeling. Relationships between land cover and habitat suitability differed between scales, and broader, watershed-scale conditions influenced land cover along the embedded stream networks. We found anthropogenic development and forest cover at the watershed-scale negatively impacted habitat suitability, but development along stream networks was positively associated with suitability. The positive association between development along streams and habitat suitability may be attributable to increased spatial heterogeneity along urbanized streams, or related factors including policies designed to conserve riparian habitats amidst development. These findings show arroyo toad habitat is influenced by land cover across multiple scales, and can inform conservation of the species. Furthermore, our methodology can help elucidate similar dynamics with other taxa, particularly those reliant on both terrestrial and aquatic environments.

California↗

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of São Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981–2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of São Paulo city. Furthermore, the past (1962) road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation.

São Paulo↗