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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Identifying Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in North America at the landscape scale

The Kittlitz's Murrelet ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ) is a small, non-colonial seabird endemic to marine waters of Alaska and eastern Russia that may have experienced significant population decline in recent decades, in part because of low reproductive success and terrestrial threats. Although recent studies have shed new light on Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in a few discrete areas, the location and extent of suitable nesting habitat throughout most of its range remains unclear. Here, we have compiled all existing nest records and locations to identify landscape-scale parameters (distance to coast, elevation, slope, and land cover) that provide potential nesting habitat in four regions: northern Alaska, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula Mountains and Kodiak Island, and Pacific Coastal Mountains (including nearshore interior Canada). We produced a final map classifying 12% (70,411 km 2 ) of the lands assessed as potential Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat, with dense but distinct patches in northern Alaska and a more uninterrupted, narrow band extending across the Pacific Coastal Mountains, Alaska Peninsula Mountains, and Aleutian Islands. The extent of habitat-capable parameter values varied regionally, indicating that the Kittlitz's Murrelet may be able to use a variety of habitats for nesting, depending on availability. Future nesting habitat studies could employ spatially random sampling designs to allow for quantitatively robust modeling of nesting habitat and predictive extrapolation to areas where nests have not been located but likely exist.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Bird community response to filter strips in Maryland

Filter strips are strips of herbaceous vegetation planted along agricultural field margins adjacent to streams or wetlands and are designed to intercept sediment, nutrients, and agrichemicals. Roughly 16,000 ha of filter strips have been established in Maryland through the United States Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. Filter strips often represent the only uncultivated herbaceous areas on farmland in Maryland and therefore may be important habitat for early-successional bird species. Most filter strips in Maryland are planted to either native warm-season grasses or cool-season grasses and range in width from 10.7 m to 91.4 m. From 2004 to 2007 we studied the breeding and wintering bird communities in filter strips adjacent to wooded edges and non-buffered field edges and the effect that grass type and width of filter strips had on bird community composition. We used 5 bird community metrics (total bird density, species richness, scrub-shrub bird density, grassland bird density, and total avian conservation value), species-specific densities, nest densities, and nest survival estimates to assess the habitat value of filter strips for birds. Breeding and wintering bird community metrics were greater in filter strips than in non-buffered field edges but did not differ between cool-season and warm-season grass filter strips. Most breeding bird community metrics were negatively related to the percent cover of orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata) in ???1 yr. Breeding bird density was greater in narrow (<30 m) compared to wide (>60 m) filter strips. Our results suggest that narrow filter strips adjacent to wooded edges can provide habitat for many bird species but that wide filter strips provide better habitat for grassland birds, particularly obligate grassland species. If bird conservation is an objective, avoid planting orchardgrass in filter strips and reduce or eliminate orchardgrass from filter strips through management practices. Copyright ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Post-parturition habitat selection by elk calves and adult female elk in New Mexico

Neonatal survival and juvenile recruitment are crucial to maintaining viable elk ( Cervus elaphus ) populations. Neonate survival is known to be influenced by many factors, including bed-site selection. Although neonates select the actual bed-site location, they must do so within the larger calf-rearing area selected by the mother. As calves age, habitat selection should change to meet the changing needs of the growing calf. Our main objectives were to characterize habitat selection at 2 spatial scales and in areas with different predator assemblages in New Mexico. We evaluated bed-site selection by calves and calf-rearing area selection by adult females. We captured 108 elk calves by hand and fitted them with ear tag transmitters in two areas in New Mexico: the Valle Vidal and Blue Range Wolf Recovery Area. In both study areas, we found that concealing cover structure and distance to that cover influenced bed-site selection of young calves (i.e., <2 weeks of age). Older calves (i.e., 3–10 weeks of age) still selected areas in relation to distance to cover, but also preferred areas with higher visibility. At the larger spatial scale of calf-rearing habitat selection by the adult female, concealing cover (e.g., rocks, shrubs, and logs) and other variables important to the hiding calves were still in the most supported models, but selection was also influenced by forage availability and indices of forage quality. Studies that seek to obtain insight into microhabitat selection of ungulate neonates should consider selection by the neonate and selection by the adult female, changes in selection as neonates age, and potential selection differences in areas of differing predation risk. By considering these influences together and at multiple scales, studies can achieve a broader understanding of neonatal ungulate habitat requirements.

New Mexico↗

USGS2023

Genetic structure of the Silver Chub indicates distinctiveness of Lake Erie population

Objective Silver Chub Macrhybopsis storeriana is a small riverine minnow endemic to North American fresh waters. Its range extends from the southern USA to southcentral Canada; the latter includes a rare lacustrine population in Lake Erie. Anthropogenic activities pose an immediate threat to several Silver Chub populations, currently categorized from special concern to threatened at the state level in the USA and federally and provincially not-at-risk to endangered in Canada. Several studies have examined the anthropogenic causes for the decline of Silver Chub populations, but conservation efforts have been hindered by the lack of knowledge of the population genetics of this species. Methods Here, we provide an assessment of the genetic diversity of Silver Chub populations across the USA and Canada using a fast-evolving mitochondrial gene, with particular focus on the Lake Erie population. Result We found the Lake Erie population to be divergent from all other populations, with nearly all the haplotypes sampled there being private. Conclusion Our study provides genetic evidence that the Silver Chub population in Lake Erie could be considered a separate conservation unit.

Lake Erie↗

USGS1998

Effects of reservoir hydrology on reproduction by largemouth bass and spotted bass in Normandy Reservoir, Tennessee

Age-0 largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and spotted bass M. punctulatus were collected from Normandy Reservoir, Tennessee, 1992–1996, to evaluate effects of reservoir hydrology and hatching of shad Dorosoma spp. on hatching and first-year growth and survival of these two species. Fish were collected in cove rotenone samples in early Aug and electrofishing samples biweekly throughout the summer; hatch dates and age-specific growth for both species were determined from cove samples with sagittal otoliths. Hatching of both species ranged from early April to early Jun. Initiation of largemouth bass spawning, but not spotted bass spawning, was positively related to the first day water levels achieved full pool. Mean hatch dates of both species were positively related to the first day of full pool. Timing of spawning for both species was not related to water temperature. Largemouth bass exhibited bimodal length-frequency distributions by midsummer in two wet years and length frequencies were unimodal in dry years; spotted bass always formed unimodal length-frequency distributions. When largemouth bass exhibited bimodal length distributions, earlier hatched fish grew faster than later hatched fish. Spotted bass grew at similar rates, regardless of hatch date, every year except during 1992 when later hatched fish grew faster than earlier hatched fish. Weekly survival of largemouth bass in their first summer was positively related to reservoir water level. First-year growth of both species was not directly affected by the timing of threadfin shad D. petenense or gizzard shad D. cepedianum hatching.

Tennessee↗

USGS2015

Black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits in the American West: History, ecology, ecological significance, and survey methods

Across the western United States, Leporidae are the most important prey item in the diet of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Leporids inhabiting the western United States include black-tailed ( Lepus californicus ) and white-tailed jackrabbits ( Lepus townsendi i) and various species of cottontail rabbit ( Sylvilagus spp.). Jackrabbits ( Lepus spp.) are particularly important components of the ecological and economic landscape of western North America because their abundance influences the reproductive success and population trends of predators such as coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), and a number of raptor species. Here, we review literature pertaining to black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits comprising over 170 published journal articles, notes, technical reports, conference proceedings, academic theses and dissertations, and other sources dating from the late 19th century to the present. Our goal is to present information to assist those in research and management, particularly with regard to protected raptor species (e.g., Golden Eagles), mammalian predators, and ecological monitoring. We classified literature sources as (1) general information on jackrabbit species, (2) black-tailed or (3) white-tailed jackrabbit ecology and natural history, or (4) survey methods. These categories, especially 2, 3, and 4, were further subdivided as appropriate. The review also produced several tables on population trends, food habits, densities within various habitats, and jackrabbit growth and development. Black-tailed and white-tailed jackrabbits are ecologically similar in general behaviors, use of forms, parasites, and food habits, and they are prey to similar predators; but they differ in their preferred habitats. While the black-tailed jackrabbit inhabits agricultural land, deserts, and shrublands, the white-tailed jackrabbit is associated with prairies, alpine tundra, and sagebrush-steppe. Frequently considered abundant, jackrabbit numbers in western North America fluctuate temporally and spatially. We also reviewed methods used to investigate jackrabbit populations, including spotlight line transects, flushing transects, drive counts, pellet plot counts, collections, roadside counts, mark-recapture studies, and radio-telemetry studies. Our review of jackrabbit literature illustrates a number of deficiencies in our understanding of jackrabbits in general. As an example, a detailed quantitative description of habitat preferences is lacking, as is a thorough understanding of sympatric jackrabbit species interactions. Even the existence of the oft-cited jackrabbit “cycle” is a matter of debate. Survey methods generally do not address efficacy or accuracy in measuring jackrabbit density or abundance. In addition, there is a paucity of information about jackrabbits in the Mojave Desert, with no real understanding of home ranges, habitat preferences, and population dynamics or demographics in this region.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas↗

USGS2026

When best intentions are not enough - A collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and an agricultural community

Rocky Mountain National Park is a Congressionally mandated Clean Air Act Class I Area, but years of research have documented evidence of biogeochemical and ecological change caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. A coalition of government agencies—National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency Region 8, and the State of Colorado—developed the 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the park from the baseline in 2006 by 50% by 2032. Fifty-four percent of wet nitrogen deposition is ammonium, primarily sourced from industrial cattle and dairy operations east of the park. An Agriculture Subcommittee, meeting with regulatory and management agencies and scientists since 2006, has explored voluntary options to reduce ammonia emissions. Ammonia emissions are unregulated in the U.S. Despite sustained efforts, neither ammonium deposition nor total inorganic nitrogen deposition have declined at the rate determined to reach the targeted value by 2032. In fact, ammonia is increasing over the Front Range agricultural area. Wet nitrogen deposition in 2024 was 2.81 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 0.61 kg N ha −1 yr −1 higher than targeted in the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan. The collaborative approach between agricultural producers, regulatory entities, and resource managers is not working, but not for lack of effort by all parties. Cattle process nitrogen inefficiently, and while management practices can somewhat reduce the proportion of ammonia emitted from feedlots, with more than one million head of cattle east of Rocky Mountain National Park, large-scale reductions are unlikely. New programs to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (46% of wet nitrogen deposition) may reduce nitrogen deposition that is changing park ecosystems. Improved integration of crop and livestock agriculture and valuation of the ecosystem services and economy of Rocky Mountain National Park alongside agricultural value are topics for further discussion. Implications : Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to Rocky Mountain National Park has changed natural ecosystems. To protect its Clean Air Act Class I status a 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan agreed upon by state and federal agencies set a goal to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the Park by half by 2032. Industrial livestock operations are a large source of nitrogen; an Agriculture Subcommittee explored voluntary options to reduce emissions from cattle. Despite sustained efforts nitrogen deposition has not declined. Further reductions in industry and transportation emissions will be needed reduce nitrogen deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

Eastern Whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferus) are positively associated with low elevation forest In the central Appalachians

Populations of the Eastern Whip-poor-will ( Antrostomus vociferus ) are thought to be declining because of a range of potential factors including habitat loss, pesticide use, and predation. However, this species is nocturnal and, as a consequence, it is poorly studied, and its population status is not well assessed by traditional diurnal bird surveys. We used nocturnal road surveys to study habitat associations and distribution of Eastern Whip-poor-wills to better understand and contextualize their population status and to provide a framework for subsequent research and management. We used occupancy models to associate presence of Eastern Whip-poor-wills with habitat characteristics. Global models with habitat associations at a radius of 1600 m (1.0-ha area) were the best supported by the data, suggesting that this was the scale at which the species responded to the habitat parameters we measured. At this scale, Eastern Whip-poor-wills most frequently occupied areas lower in elevation and characterized by forested, herbaceous, and wetland cover types. In contrast, high elevation conifer forest communities had substantially fewer Eastern Whip-poor-wills. Detection rates were positively correlated with moon visibility and negatively correlated with noise. We used the results of our surveys to generate a regional model to predict distributions of Eastern Whip-poor-wills and that can be used as a framework for future management. Our results suggest that succession of agricultural fields and other clearings into forested habitats with dense understory may be a contributing factor to ongoing declines of Eastern Whip-poor-wills.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Seismic survey design and impacts to maternal polar bear dens

Large‐scale industrial activities can have negative effects on wildlife populations. Some of these effects, however, could be reduced with effective planning prior to development. The Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in northeastern Alaska, USA, is an important maternal denning area for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Recent legislation has opened the area for potential oil and gas development. As a result, there is interest in conducting winter seismic surveys across the area that could disturb denning female polar bears and lead to decreased cub survival. We sought to demonstrate how different seismic survey designs, with and without aerial den detection surveys, could affect the level of potential effect on denning polar bears during spring (Feb–Apr). We developed 5 hypothetical seismic survey designs for a portion of the Coastal Plain ranging from no spatial or temporal restrictions on activities to explicit consideration of when and where operations can occur. We evaluated how many dens might be disturbed by seismic surveys and the average distance activity came within simulated polar bear dens. Survey design had a large effect on the estimated number of dens that could be disturbed; the scenario with the highest spatial and temporal specificity reduced the number of dens disturbed by >90% compared to the scenario with no restrictions on when and where activity could occur. The use of an aerial den detection survey prior to seismic activity further reduced the number of dens disturbed by 68% across all scenarios. The scenario with the highest spatial and temporal specificity always had the lowest level of disturbance for all scenarios with and without the aerial survey included. Our study suggests that large reductions in the probability of disturbance can occur through careful planning on the timing and distribution of proposed activities even when surveys are planned in areas with a high density of polar bear dens.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the urban San Francisco Bay estuary, California. In particular, we examine the influence of shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and subregional floodgates on regional water levels. The result shows that under present conditions, tidal amplification is responsible for generating a wide distribution of extreme water levels across San Francisco Bay. Tidal amplification is found to decrease under sea level rise, thereby producing a relative damping effect on extremes. A comparison of different shoreline scenarios demonstrates that hard frontal shorelines result in higher tidal amplification, whereas restored (soft) shorelines lower amplification. The current shoreline configuration has both hard and soft characteristics and results in an intermediate tidal response. In some areas, wetland restoration reduces extreme water levels by as much as 20 cm, whereas hard-shoreline addition elevates them by as much as 10 cm for 1.5 m of sea level rise. Furthermore, local floodgates can significantly reduce high water levels without major adverse effects elsewhere in San Francisco Bay. These findings point toward the justification for a range of adaptive measures across political boundaries, weighing hard and soft options in addressing the mounting danger of sea level rise.

California↗

USGS2026

Space between houses influences movement and habitat selection of ungulates: Width as a novel metric of development

Wildlife often lose access to habitat due to housing development. The magnitude of indirect habitat loss can be conditional on the configuration of individual houses, but commonly used metrics (i.e. density or distance) can overlook the configuration of development. We introduce a novel framework to index the configuration of development based on the width of space between houses and associated structures. We use resource selection functions to assess the degree that GPS-collared elk ( Cervus canadensis ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), pronghorn and moose ( Alces alces ) on winter range and on migration routes use space between houses within northwest Wyoming, USA, near the towns of Cody and Jackson. Further, to help inform regulations aiming to promote wildlife movement across a gradient of land uses, we differentiated between individuals residing in primarily rural and exurban areas. Rural populations of elk, mule deer, pronghorn and moose avoided spaces narrower than 2 km and never used spaces narrower than 50 m between houses, whereas exurban populations of elk, mule deer and moose selected for spaces narrower than 2 km but avoided spaces narrower than 50 m. We identified cutoffs in rural and exurban areas where space may become too narrow for most animals to use. Through this metric, managers and policy makers can inform the necessary width to maintain wildlife movement through corridors. Our width metric can be applied to other systems and our workflow is publicly available ( https://wildlifemovetools.org/width-calculator ) so users can estimate the width of space between structures in their focal areas. Synthesis and applications . In rural areas, maintaining spaces between houses >500 m will likely facilitate ungulate movement. To fully conserve functional habitat, such as unimpeded habitat use along migration corridors, maintaining spaces approximately >2.5 km between houses will likely be necessary.

Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Assessing water quality suitability for shortnose sturgeon in the Roanoke River, North Carolina, USA with an in situ bioassay approach

The aim of this study was to determine the suitability of water quality in the Roanoke River of North Carolina for supporting shortnose sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum, an endangered species in the United States. Fathead minnows Pimephales promelas were also evaluated alongside the sturgeon as a comparative species to measure potential differences in fish survival, growth, contaminant accumulation, and histopathology in a 28-day in situ toxicity test. Captively propagated juvenile shortnose sturgeon (total length 49 ± 8mm, mean ±SD) and fathead minnows (total length 39 ± 3mm, mean ± SD) were used in the test and their outcomes were compared to simultaneous measurements of water quality (temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, total ammonia nitrogen, hardness, alkalinity, turbidity) and contaminant chemistry (metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organochlorine pesticides, current use pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls) in river water and sediment. In the in situ test, there were three non-riverine control sites and eight riverine test sites with three replicate cages (25 X 15-cm (OD) clear plexiglass with 200-lm tear-resistant Nitex screen over each end) of 20 shortnose sturgeon per cage at each site. There was a single cage of fathead minnows also deployed at each site alongside the sturgeon cages. Survival of caged shortnose sturgeon among the riverine sites averaged 9% (range 1.7-25%) on day 22 of the 28-day study, whereas sturgeon survival at the non-riverine control sites averaged 64% (range 33-98%). In contrast to sturgeon, only one riverine deployed fathead minnow died (average 99.4% survival) over the 28-day test period and none of the control fathead minnows died. Although chemical analyses revealed the presence of retene (7-isopropyl-1-methylphenanthrene), a pulp and paper mill derived compound with known dioxin-like toxicity to early life stages of fish, in significant quantities in the water (251-603ngL-1) and sediment (up to 5000ngg-1 dry weight) at several river sites, no correlation was detected of adverse water quality conditions or measured contaminant concentrations to the poor survival of sturgeon among riverine test sites. Histopathology analysis determined that the mortality of the river deployed shortnose sturgeon was likely due to liver and kidney lesions from an unknown agent(s). Given the poor survival of shortnose sturgeon (9%) and high survival of fathead minnows (99.4%) at the riverine test sites, our study indicates that conditions in the Roanoke River are incongruous with the needs of juvenile shortnose sturgeon and that fathead minnows, commonly used standard toxicity test organisms, do not adequately predict the sensitivity of shortnose sturgeon. Therefore, additional research is needed to help identify specific limiting factors and management actions for the enhancement and recovery of this imperiled fish species.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

A framework for assessing the feasibility of native fish conservation translocations: Applications to threatened bull trout

There is an urgent need to consider more aggressive and direct interventions for the conservation of freshwater fishes that are threatened by invasive species, habitat loss, and climate change. Conservation introduction (moving a species outside its indigenous range to other areas where conditions are predicted to be more suitable) is one type of translocation strategy that fisheries managers can use to establish new conservation populations in areas of refugia. To date, however, there are few examples of successful conservation-based introductions. Many attempts fail to establish new populations—in part because environmental factors that might influence success are inadequately evaluated before the translocation is implemented. We developed a framework to assess the feasibility of rescuing threatened fish populations through translocation into historically unoccupied stream and lake habitats. The suitability of potential introduction sites was evaluated based on four major components: the recipient habitat, recipient community, donor population, and future threats. Specific questions were then developed to evaluate each major component. The final assessment was based on a scoring system that addressed each question by using criteria developed from characteristics representative of highly suitable habitats and populations. This framework was used to evaluate the proposed within-drainage translocation of three Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus populations in Glacier National Park, Montana. Our results indicated that within-drainage translocation is a feasible strategy for conserving locally adapted populations of Bull Trout through the creation of new areas of refugia in Glacier National Park. The framework provides a flexible platform that can help managers make informed decisions for moving threatened fishes into new areas of refugia for conservation and recovery programs.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2015

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1-min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species-specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy-based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.

Mississippi↗

USGS2022

Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions

High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscape conditions differ, which becomes a source of uncertainty when they are applied to subsequent analyses. Here we tested the range of values from five gridded climate datasets. We compared their values to observations from 1231 weather stations, first using each dataset’s native scale, and then after each was rescaled to 270-m resolution. We inputted the downscaled grids to a mechanistic hydrology model and assessed the spatial results of six hydrological variables across California, in 10 ecoregions and 11 large watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. PRISM was most accurate for precipitation, ClimateNA for maximum temperature, and TopoWx for minimum temperature. The single most accurate dataset overall was PRISM due to the best performance for precipitation and low air temperature errors. Hydrological differences ranged up to 70% of the average monthly streamflow with an average of 35% disagreement for all months derived from different historical climate maps. Large differences in minimum air temperature data produced differences in modeled actual evapotranspiration, snowpack, and streamflow. Areas with the highest variability in climate data, including the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains ecoregions, also had the largest spread for snow water equivalent, recharge, and runoff.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2014

Characterizing phosphorus dynamics in tile-drained agricultural fieldsof eastern Wisconsin

Artificial subsurface drainage provides an avenue for the rapid transfer of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields to surface waters. This is of particular interest in eastern Wisconsin, where there is a concentrated population of dairy farms and high clay content soils prone to macropore development. Through collaboration with private landowners, surface and tile drainage was measured and analyzed for dissolved reactive P (DRP) and total P (TP) losses at four field sites in eastern Wisconsin between 2005 and 2009. These sites, which received frequent manure applications, represent a range of crop management practices which include: two chisel plowed corn fields (CP1, CP2), a no-till corn–soybean field (NT), and a grazed pasture (GP). Subsurface drainage was the dominant pathway of water loss at each site accounting for 66–96% of total water discharge. Average annual flow-weighted (FW) TP concentrations were 0.88, 0.57, 0.21, and 1.32 mg L −1 for sites CP1, CP2, NT, and GP, respectively. Low TP concentrations at the NT site were due to tile drain interception of groundwater flow where large volumes of tile drainage water diluted the FW-TP concentrations. Subsurface pathways contributed between 17% and 41% of the TP loss across sites. On a drainage event basis, total drainage explained between 36% and 72% of the event DRP loads across CP1, CP2, and GP; there was no relationship between event drainflow and event DRP load at the NT site. Manure applications did not consistently increase P concentrations in drainflow, but annual FW-P concentrations were greater in years receiving manure applications compared to years without manure application. Based on these field measures, P losses from tile drainage must be integrated into field level P budgets and P loss calculations on heavily manured soils, while also acknowledging the unique drainage patterns observed in eastern Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 < rate < 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate < -1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate > 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2017

Isotopic structure of Lake Whitefish in Lake Huron: Evidence for regional and local populations based on resource use

Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis is the most commercially valuable species in Lake Huron. The fishery for this species has historically been managed based on 25 management units (17 in Canada, 8 in the USA). However, congruence between the contemporary population structure of Lake Whitefish and management units is poorly understood. We used stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N), food web markers that reflect patterns in resource use (i.e., prey, location, habitat), to assess the population structure of spawning-phase Lake Whitefish collected from 32 sites (1,474 fish) across Lake Huron. We found large isotopic variation among fish from different sites (ranges: δ 13 C = 10.2‰, δ 15 N = 5.5‰) and variable niche size and levels of overlap (standard ellipse area = 1.0–4.3‰ 2 ). Lake Huron contained spawning-phase fish from four major isotopic clusters largely defined by extensive variation in δ 13 C, and the isotopic composition of fish sampled was spatially structured both within and between lake basins. Based on cluster compositions, we identified six putative regional groups, some of which represented sites of high diversity (three to four clusters) and others with less (one to two clusters). Analysis of isotopic values from Lake Whitefish collected from summer feeding locations and baseline prey items showed similar isotopic variation and established spatial linkage between spawning-phase and summer fish. Our results show that summer feeding location contributes strongly to the isotopic structure we observed in spawning-phase fish. One of the regional groups we identified in northern Georgian Bay is highly distinct based on isotopic composition and possibly ecologically unique within Lake Huron. Our findings are congruent with several previous studies using different markers (genetics, mark–recapture), and we conclude that current management units are generally too small and numerous to reflect the population structure of Lake Whitefish in Lake Huron.

Lake Huron↗