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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources
USGS1986

Directions and rates of ground-water movement in the vicinity of Kesterson Reservoir, San Joaquin Valley, California

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was used to simulate groundwater flow for a 124 sq mi area in the vicinity of Kesterson Reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Available data were used to calculate a probable range of groundwater flow rates, but calibration and sensitivity analysis were not done for this model. Flow directions, as inferred from measured groundwater levels and simulated hydraulic heads from all model simulations, indicate that regional groundwater flow is from the south to the north. Kesterson Reservoir acts as a recharge mound superimposed on the regional-flow system. Groundwater moves in the horizontal and vertical direction away from Kesterson Reservoir. Mud and Salt Sloughs act as groundwater discharge areas. Simulated groundwater flow from Kesterson Reservoir did not flow beyond these sloughs. Groundwater from west of Mud Slough seems to flow west toward Los Banos Creek and east toward Mud Slough. Groundwater that travels toward Salt Slough from Kesterson Reservoir probably is lost by evapotranspiration near the surface before reaching Salt Slough. Groundwater between Salt Slough and the San Joaquin River seems to flow north and toward Salt Slough and the San Joaquin River. The canals and duck ponds generally act as sources of groundwater recharge. A method was developed for determining flow directions and distance traveled in three dimensions for discrete time increments using simulated groundwater fluxes. Simulated average horizontal pore velocities away from Kesterson range less than 0.01 to 140 ft/year. The simulated average vertical pore velocities range from 0.01 to 14.7 ft/year. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

Ground-water and surface-water flow and estimated water budget for Lake Seminole, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida

Lake Seminole is a 37,600-acre impoundment formed at the confluence of the Flint and Chattahoochee Rivers along the Georgia?Florida State line. Outflow from Lake Seminole through Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam provides headwater to the Apalachicola River, which is a major supply of freshwater, nutrients, and detritus to ecosystems downstream. These rivers,together with their tributaries, are hydraulically connected to karst limestone units that constitute most of the Upper Floridan aquifer and to a chemically weathered residuum of undifferentiated overburden. The ground-water flow system near Lake Seminole consists of the Upper Floridan aquifer and undifferentiated overburden. The aquifer is confined below by low-permeability sediments of the Lisbon Formation and, generally, is semiconfined above by undifferentiated overburden. Ground-water flow within the Upper Floridan aquifer is unconfined or semiconfined and discharges at discrete points by springflow or diffuse leakage into streams and other surface-water bodies. The high degree of connectivity between the Upper Floridan aquifer and surface-water bodies is limited to the upper Eocene Ocala Limestone and younger units that are in contact with streams in the Lake Seminole area. The impoundment of Lake Seminole inundated natural stream channels and other low-lying areas near streams and raised the water-level altitude of the Upper Floridan aquifer near the lake to nearly that of the lake, about 77 feet. Surface-water inflow from the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers and Spring Creek and outflow to the Apalachicola River through Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam dominate the water budget for Lake Seminole. About 81 percent of the total water-budget inflow consists of surface water; about 18 percent is ground water, and the remaining 1 percent is lake precipitation. Similarly, lake outflow consists of about 89 percent surface water, as flow to the Apalachicola River through Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam, about 4 percent ground water, and about 2 percent lake evaporation. Measurement error and uncertainty in flux calculations cause a flow imbalance of about 4 percent between inflow and outflow water-budget components. Most of this error can be attributed to errors in estimating ground-water discharge from the lake, which was calculated using a ground-water model calibrated to October 1986 conditions for the entire Apalachicola?Chattahoochee?Flint River Basin and not just the area around Lake Seminole. Evaporation rates were determined using the preferred, but mathematically complex, energy budget and five empirical equations: Priestley-Taylor, Penman, DeBruin-Keijman, Papadakis, and the Priestley-Taylor used by the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network. Empirical equations require a significant amount of data but are relatively easy to calculate and compare well to long-term average annual (April 2000?March 2001) pan evaporation, which is 65 inches. Calculated annual lake evaporation, for the study period, using the energy-budget method was 67.2 inches, which overestimated long-term average annual pan evaporation by 2.2 inches. The empirical equations did not compare well with the energy-budget method during the 18-month study period, with average differences in computed evaporation using each equation ranging from 8 to 26 percent. The empirical equations also compared poorly with long-term average annual pan evaporation, with average differences in evaporation ranging from 3 to 23 percent. Energy budget and long-term average annual pan evaporation estimates did compare well, with only a 3-percent difference between estimates. Monthly evaporation estimates using all methods ranged from 0.7 to 9.5 inches and were lowest during December 2000 and highest during May 2000. Although the energy budget is generally the preferred method, the dominance of surface water in the Lake Seminole water budget makes the method inaccurate and difficult to use, because surface water makes up m

Florida, Georgia↗
USGS1980

Data-base system for northern Midwest regional aquifer-system analysis

The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a study of the Cambrian and Ordovician aquifer system of the northern Midwest as part of a national series of Regional Aquifer-Systems Analysis (RASA). An integral part of this study will be a simulation of the ground-water flow regime using the Geological Survey's three-dimensional finite-difference model. The first step in the modeling effort is the design and development of a systematic set of processes to facilitate the collection, evaluation, manipulation, and use of large quantities of information. A computerized data-base system to accomplish these goals has been completed for the northern Midwest RASA. The input to the data-base system consists of either point values or contour maps of the hydrogeologic data required by the model. Digital samples of contoured surfaces are obtained by machine digitization. Uniformly spaced model-node values are then computed from the discrete data by two-dimensional interpolation. The interpolator uses the regional (long wavelength) characteristics of the data to compute a surface with minimum total curvature. Local (short wavelength) data are merged with the regional surface to produce the model-node values at the desired spacing. Nonuniformly spaced nodal values may be obtained by fitting two-dimensional polynomials (bicubic splines) to surfaces formed by uniformly spaced points and solving for the surface values at the node locations. The uniformly or nonuniformly spaced node values constitute the output of the data-base system and in turn are the input arrays of data values for the ground-water flow model. Management of the data base is facilitated by forming a data file for each model input parameter and for other hydrogeologic data used in the study. The data files are subdivided into elements consisting of individual model-layer arrays. In this form the data base can be readily accessed and edited. In addition to the interpolation programs, software components of the system include programs: (1) to transform geographic coordinates on a Lambert conformal conic projection to cartesian coordinates and vice versa, (2) to machine contour gridded data, (3) to expedite manipulation and editing of data, and (4) to perform various interarray computations. The data-base system has the following attributes: (1) manual handling of data is minimized and machine handling of data is maximized, (2) given unequally spaced point data over the extent of a study area, model input arrays for any reasonable uniform node spacing can be rapidly computed, (3) accuracy of computed node values are generally compatible with accuracy and spatial distribution of point data, (4) a relatively large class of nonuniformly spaced node configurations can be computed, (5) data within data-base files can be easily accessed and readily edited, and (6) the occurrence of data processing errors at various stages of data-base generation is monitored by machine contouring the computed grids. Functioning of the data-base system is illustrated by the sequence of steps required to produce a model-input array of transmissivity, given raw geologic and hydraulic conductivity data.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Analyses of Water-Level Differentials and Variations in Recharge between the Surficial and Upper Floridan Aquifers in East-Central and Northeast Florida

Continuous (daily) water-level data collected at 29 monitoring-well cluster sites were analyzed to document variations in recharge between the surficial (SAS) and Floridan (FAS) aquifer systems in east-central and northeast Florida. According to Darcy's law, changes in the water-level differentials (differentials) between these systems are proportional to changes in the vertical flux of water between them. Variations in FAS recharge rates are of interest to water-resource managers because changes in these rates affect sensitive water resources subject to minimum flow and water-level restrictions, such as the amount of water discharged from springs and changes in lake and wetland water levels. Mean daily differentials between 2000-2004 ranged from less than 1 foot at a site in east-central Florida to more than 114 feet at a site in northeast Florida. Sites with greater mean differentials exhibited lower percentage-based ranges in fluctuations than did sites with lower mean differentials. When averaged for all sites, differentials (and thus Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) recharge rates) decreased by about 18 percent per site between 2000-2004. This pattern can be associated with reductions in ground-water withdrawals from the UFA that occurred after 2000 as the peninsula emerged from a 3-year drought. Monthly differentials exhibited a well-defined seasonal pattern in which UFA recharge rates were greatest during the dry spring months (8 percent above the 5-year daily mean in May) and least during the wetter summer/early fall months (4 percent below the 5-year daily mean in October). In contrast, differentials exceeded the 5-year daily mean in all but 2 months of 2000, indicative of relatively high ground-water withdrawals throughout the year. On average, the UFA received about 6 percent more recharge at the project sites in 2000 than between 2000-2004. No statistically significant correlations were detected between monthly differentials and precipitation at 27 of the 29 sites between 2000-2004. For longer periods of record, double-mass plots of differentials and precipitation indicate the UFA recharge rate increased by about 34 percent at a site in west Orange County between the periods of 1974-1983 and 1983-2004. Given the absence of a trend in rainfall, the increase can likely be attributed to ground-water development. At a site in south Lake County, double-mass plots indicate that dredging of the Palatlakaha River and other nearby drainage improvements may have reduced recharge rates to the UFA by about 30 percent from the period between 1960-1965 to 1965-1970. Water-level differentials were positively correlated with land-surface altitude. The correlation was particularly strong for the 11 sites located in physiographically-defined ridge areas (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89). Weaker yet statistically significant negative correlations were detected between differentials and the model-calibrated leakance and thickness of the intermediate confining unit (ICU). Recharge to the UFA decreased by about 14 percent at the Charlotte Street monitoring-well site in Seminole County between 2000-2004. The decrease can be attributed to a reduction in nearby pumpage, from 57 to 49 million gallons per day over the 5-year period, with a subsequent recovery in UFA water levels that exceeded those in the SAS. Differentials at Charlotte were influenced by system memory of both precipitation and pumpage. While not statistically correlated with monthly precipitation, monthly differentials were well correlated with the 9-month moving average of precipitation. Similarly, differentials were best correlated with the 2-month moving average of pumpage. The polynomial function that quantifies the correlation between differentials and the 2-month moving average of pumpage indicates that, in terms of UFA recharge rates, the system was closer to a steady-state condition in 2000 when pumpage rates were high, than from 2001-2004 when p

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1980

Digital-simulation and projection of head changes in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, coastal plain, New Jersey

The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system of Cretaceous age, which is the principal source of water to the major population and industrial centers in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey, has undergone continuous and widespread reduction in head. The reduced head, already below sea level throughout most of the aquifer system, in conjunction with encroachment of salty water toward centers of pumping, threatens the continued use of the aquifer as a source of freshwater in the area. A single layer, two-dimensional finite difference digital model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer system to pumping stresses during the 18-year period, 1956-73. Model simulations were based on close agreement between (1) observed and calculated heads and head trends for 10 observation wells during the period, 1956-73; and (2) the computed nonpumping steady-state potentiometric surface and a potentiometric surface based on early water-level observations (1900±) solutions. In addition, the hydrologic budget estimated by the model appears to be reasonable for the transient (1956-73) and the steady-state (1900±) solutions. The model was used to compute projected potentiometric heads and trends to the year 2000. Three sets of conditions, all using the 1973 distribution of pumping centers, were simulated. The conditions are: (1) no increase in ground-water extractions; (2) continued growth in ground-water extractions at the rate of 1.7 and 3 percent annually; and (3) continued growth in ground-water extractions at the rate of 3 percent annually, in conjunction with the activitation of a freshwater head barrier in the fresh-salty transition zone. Under the first set of conditions, further head reduction would cease over very large regions within two years. Under the second set of conditions involving a 3 percent growth rate similar to that experienced during the simulation period, the broad cone of depression already encompassing most of the New Jersey Coastal Plain would broaden and deepen. Heads would range from 60 to 160 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929. The reduction of head after 1973 would approach 90 feet in some areas. The resultant steeper hydraullic gradients would accelerate the rate of movement of salty ground water toward the pumping centers. A freshwater head barrier could be established in the transition zone to prevent migration of salty ground water across a 35-mile stretch in Gloucester, Camden, and Burlington Counties. A line of injection wells would be required, with total rates of injection to the head barrier ranging from about 56 cubic feet per second in 1984 to about 95 cubic feet per second in 2000. Barrier recharge rates would be equivalent to about 20 percent of the ground water pumped in the fine-grid area in any particular year for a 3 percent increase in extractions.

New Jersey↗
USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2003

Hydrology, nutrient concentrations, and nutrient yields in nearshore areas of four lakes in northern Wisconsin, 1999-2001

The effects of shoreline development on water quality and nutrient yields in nearshore areas of four lakes in northern Wisconsin were investigated from October 1999 through September 2001. The study measured surface runoff and ground-water flows from paired developed (sites containing lawn, rooftops, sidewalks, and driveways) and undeveloped (mature and immature woods) catchments adjacent to four lakes in northern Wisconsin. Water samples from surface runoff and ground water were collected and analyzed for nutrients. Coupled with water volumes, loads and subsequent yields of selected constituents were computed for developed and undeveloped catchments. The median runoff from lawn surfaces ranged from 0.0019 to 0.059 inch over the catchment area. Median surface runoff estimates from the wooded catchments were an order of magnitude less than those from the lawn catchments. The increased water volumes from the lawn catchments resulted in greater nutrient loads and subsequent annual nutrient yields from the developed sites. Soil temperature and soil moisture were measured at two sites with mixed lawn and wooded areas. At both of these sites, the area covered with a lawn commonly was warmer than the wooded area. No consistent differences in soil moisture were found. A ground-water model was constructed to simulate the local flow systems at two of the paired catchments. Model simulations showed that much of the ground water delivered to the lake originated from distant areas that did not contribute runoff directly to the lake. Surface runoff and ground-water nutrient concentrations from the lawn and wooded catchments did not have apparent patterns. Some of the median concentrations from lawns were significantly different (at the 0.05 significance level) from those at wooded catchments. Water wells and piezometers were sampled for chemical analyses three times during the study period. Variability in the shallow ground-water chemistry over time in the lawn samples was larger than samples from the wooded areas and upgradient wells. Median nutrient yields in surface runoff from lawns always were greater than those from the wooded catchments. Runoff volumes were the most important factor in determining whether lawns or wooded catchments contribute more nutrients to the lake. The ground-water system had appreciable nutrient concentrations, and are likely an important pathway for nutrient transport to the lake. The nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen and total phosphorus yields to the ground-water system from a lawn catchment were approximately 3 to 4 times greater than those from the wooded catchment. There was no difference in the yields of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to the ground-water system from the lawn and wooded catchments. Study results demonstrate that choosing the appropriate landscape position for locating lawns in sloped areas (specifically, slopes that do not terminate at the lake or areas with intervening flat or buffer zones between lawn and lake) can help reduce the adverse effect of lawns on the shallow ground water and, ultimately, the lake. Additional information would be needed to extrapolate these results to a large drainage area of a lake.

Wisconsin↗
USGS1997

Review of selected features of the natural system model, and suggestions for applications in south Florida

A study was conducted to review selected features of the Natural System Model, version 4.3. The Natural System Model is a regional-scale model that uses recent climatic data and estimates of historic vegetation and topography to simulate pre-canal-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. Equations used to represent the hydrologic system and the numerical solution of these equations in the model were documented and reviewed. Convergence testing was performed using 1965 input data, and selected other aspects of the model were evaluated. Some conclusions from the evaluation of the Natural System Model include the following observations. Simulations were generally insensitive to the temporal resolution used in the model. However, reduction of the computational cell size from 2-mile by 2-mile to 2/3-mile by 2/3-mile resulted in a decrease in spatial mean ponding depths for October of 0.35 foot for a 3-hour time step. Review of the computer code indicated that there is no limit on the amount of water that can be transferred from the river system to the overland flow system, on the amount of seepage from the river to the ground-water system, on evaporation from the river system, or on evapotranspiration from the overland-flow system. Oscillations of 0.2 foot or less in simulated river stage were identified and attributed to a volume limiting function which is applied in solution of the overland-flow equations. The computation of the resistance coefficient is not consistent with the computation of overland-flow velocity. Ground-water boundary conditions do not always ensure a no-flow condition at the boundary. These inconsistencies had varying degrees of effects on model simulations, and it is likely that simulations longer than 1 year are needed to fully identify effects. However, inconsistencies in model formulations should not be ignored, even if the effects of such errors on model results appear to be small or have not been clearly defined. The Natural System Model can be a very useful tool for estimating pre-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. The model includes all of the important physical processes needed to simulate a water balance. With a few exceptions, these hydrologic processes are represented in a reasonable manner using empirical, semiempirical, and mechanistic relations. The data sets that have been assembled to represent physical features, and hydrologic and meteorological conditions are quite extensive in their scope. Some suggestions for model application were made. Simulation results from the Natural System Model need to be interpreted on a regional basis, rather than cell by cell. The available evidence suggests that simulated water levels should be interpreted with about a plus or minus 1 foot uncertainty. It is probably not appropriate to use the Natural System Model to estimate pre-drainage discharges (as opposed to hydroperiods and water levels) at a particular location or across a set of adjacent computational cells. All simulated results for computational cells within about 10 miles of the model boundaries have a higher degree of uncertainty than results for the interior of the model domain. It is most appropriate to interpret the Natural System Model simulation results in connection with other available information. Stronger linkages between hydrologic inputs to the Everglades and the ecological response of the system would enhance restoration efforts.

Florida↗
USGS1994

Hydrogeologic framework and simulation of shallow ground-water flow in the vicinity of a hazardous-waste landfill near Pinewood, South Carolina

The geologic units in the vicinity of a hazardous- waste landfill near Pinewood, S.C., were divided into hydrogeologic units on the basis of lithologic and hydrologic characteristics. A quasi-3- dimensional finite-difference ground-water-flow model was constructed to represent the hydrogeologic flamework. The simulation results indicate that if non-reactive constituents were released to the Lang Syne water-bearing zone underlying the central and western pans of the disposal area, the constituents would move in a southwesterly direction at a rate of about one-half to 7 feet per year. Contaminants could move from the Lang Syne water-bearing zone upward to the surficial aquifer, to streams, or to Lake Marion. Although these flow rates indicate that it would require at least 50 years for contaminants to travel between the disposal area and a nearby (400 ft) potential discharge area, the heterogeneity of the site hydrogeology imparts an uncertainty to the conclusion. Faster travel times cannot be ruled out if contamination enters an area having a higher hydraulic conductivity than those determined in this investigation. Faster arrival times at Lake Marion also could result if there are pathways shorter than about 400 feet between contaminated water and an area where it can discharge to the surficial aquifer or to streams. If contaminant releases were to occur on the eastern side of the ground-water mounds, near landfill section II and the southeastern part of land fill section I, initial flow directions would be toward the water-level depression in the eastern part of the facility. Ground water within water- level depression would flow downward, probably to the underlying lower Sawdust Landing water-beating zone. Movement of non-reactive constituents in the tower Sawdust Landing water-bearing zone would be southwestward toward Lake Marion at a rate of about 8 to 20 feet per year. Transport to the lake by this route could require more than 200 years.

South Carolina↗
USGS1981

Saline ground-water discharge to the Smoky Hill River between Salina and Abilene, central Kansas

Saline water discharges from the alluvial aquifer into the Smoky Hill and Solomon Rivers between New Cambria and Sand Springs, Kansas. During relatively stable base flow in 1976-77, the discharge was about 32 cubic feet per second. Chloride concentrations at base flow increased about 800 milligrams per liter in the Smoky Hill River and 550 milligrams per liter in the Solomon River. The source of the saline water is the underlying Wellington aquifer, a zone of dissolution, subsidence, and collapse along the eastern margin of the Wellington Formation. Locally, brine from the aquifer moves upward through collapse structures in the confining layer at the base of the alluvium. The brine discharge ranges from 0.3 to 0.8 cubic foot per second, and the chloride load ranges from 150 to 370 tons per day. Results from a mathematical model of the fl ow system indicated that recharge from periodic flooding, as in 1973, was sufficient to reverse the normal (197677) hydraulic gradient between aquifers. Although brine discharge was temporarily reduced, saline-water discharge to the rivers increased. The discharge of brine could be intercepted by pumping wells completed in the Wellington aquifer to lower the potentiometric head and reduce upward flow. The intercepted brine could be discharged into formations underlying the area at depth or piped to a storage reservoir from which the brine would be evaporated or released to the rivers during peak flows. Also, the freshwater in upstream base flow could be diverted by canal, and the saline-water discharge could be retained by low-head dams in the river channel for release during peak flows.

Kansas↗
USGS2004

Simulation of ground-water flow, contributing recharge areas, and ground-water travel time in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas

The Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, supplies all or part of the drinking water for Ft. Leavenworth; Leavenworth, Kansas; Weston, Missouri; and cooling water for the Kansas City Power and Light, Iatan Power Plant. Ground water at three sites within the alluvial aquifer near the Ft. Leavenworth well field is contaminated with trace metals and organic compounds and concerns have been raised about the potential contamination of drinking-water supplies. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Army began a study of ground-water flow in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth. Hydrogeologic data from 173 locations in the study area was used to construct a ground-water flow model (MODFLOW-2000) and particle-tracking program (MODPATH) to determine the direction and travel time of ground-water flow and contributing recharge areas for water-supply well fields within the alluvial aquifer. The modeled area is 28.6 kilometers by 32.6 kilometers and contains the entire study area. The model uses a uniform grid size of 100 meters by 100 meters and contains 372,944 cells in 4 layers, 286 columns, and 326 rows. The model represents the alluvial aquifer using four layers of variable thickness with no intervening confining layers. The model was calibrated to both quasi-steady-state and transient hydraulic head data collected during the study and ground-water flow was simulated for five well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. The model accuracy was calculated using the root mean square error between actual measurements of hydraulic head and model generated hydraulic head at the end of each model run. The accepted error for the model calibrations were below the maximum measurement errors. The error for the quasi-steady-state calibration was 0.82 meter; for the transient calibration it was 0.33 meter. The shape, size, and ground-water travel time within the contributing recharge area for each well or well field is affected by changes in river stage and pumping rates and by the location of the well or well field with respect to the major rivers, alluvial valley walls, and other pumping wells. The shapes of the simulated contributing recharge areas for the well fields in the study area are elongated in the upstream direction for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. The capture of ground water by the pumping wells as it moved downgradient toward the Missouri River caused the long up-valley extent of the contributing recharge areas. Recharge to the Iatan and Weston well fields primarily is from precipitation and surface runoff from the surrounding uplands because the contributing recharge area does not intersect the Missouri River for any well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Recharge to the Leavenworth and Ft. Leavenworth well fields is from precipitation, surface runoff from the surrounding uplands, and the Missouri River because the contributing recharge area intersects these boundaries for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Particle tracking analysis indicated ground water from the three contaminated sites was captured by the Ft. Leavenworth well field for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Ground-water travel times to the Ft. Leavenworth well field for average well-pumping/river-stage scenario ranged from about 33 years for the closest contamination site to about 71 years for the farthest contamination site. Ground-water flow was induced below the Missouri River by the Ft. Leavenworth and Leavenworth well fields for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN’s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida↗
USGS1982

Two-dimensional, steady-state model of ground-water flow, Nevada Test Site and vicinity, Nevada-California

A two-dimensional, steady-state model of ground-water flow beneath the Nevada Test Site and vicinity has been developed using inverse techniques. The area is underlain by clastic and carbonate rocks of Precambrian and Paleozoic age and by volcanic rocks and alluvium of Tertiary and Quaternary age that have been juxtaposed by normal and strike-slip faulting. Aquifers are composed of carbonate and volcanic rocks and alluvium. Characteristics of the flow system are determined by distribution of low-conductivity rocks (barriers); by recharge originating in the Spring Mountains, Pahranagat, Timpahute, and Sheep Ranges, and in Pahute Mesa; and by underflow beneath Pahute Mesa from Gold Flat and Kawich Valley. Discharge areas (Ash Meadows, Oasis Valley, Alkali Flat, and Furnace Creek Ranch) are upgradient from barriers. Sensitivities of simulated hydraulic heads and fluxes to variations in model parameters were calculated to guide field studies and to help estimate errors in predictions from transport modeling. Hydraulic heads and fluxes are very sensitive to variations in the greater magnitude recharge/discharge terms. Transmissivity at a location may not be the most important transmissivity for determining flux there. Transmissivities and geometries of large barriers that impede flow from Pahute Mesa have major effects on fluxes elsewhere; as their transmissivities are decreased, flux beneath western Jackass Flats and Yucca Mountains is increased as water is diverted around the barriers. Fortymile Canyon is underlain by highly transmissive rocks that cause potentiometric contours to vee upgradient; increasing their transmissivity increases flow through them, and decreases it beneath Yucca Mountain.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2005

Pond-aquifer flow and water availability in the vicinity of two coastal area seepage ponds, Glynn and Bulloch Counties, Georgia

Pond-aquifer flow and water availability at excavated seepage pond sites in Glynn County and in southern Bulloch County, Georgia, were evaluated to determine their potential as sources of water supply for irrigation. Excavated seepage ponds derive water primarily from ground water seeping into the pond, in a manner similar to a dug well completed in a surficial aquifer. The availability of water from seepage ponds is controlled by the permeability of surficial deposits, the amount of precipitation recharging the ground-water system, and the volume of water stored in the pond. The viability of seepage ponds as supplies for irrigation is limited by low seepage rates and high dependence on climatic conditions. Ponds will not refill unless there is adequate precipitation to recharge the surficial aquifer, which subsequently drains (seeps) into the pond. Ground-water seepage was estimated using a water-budget approach that utilized on-site climatic and hydrologic measurements, computing pond-volume changes during pond pumping tests, and by digital simulation using steady-state and transient ground-water flow models. From August 1999 to May 2000, the Glynn County pond was mostly losing water (as indicated by negative net seepage); whereas from October 2000 to June 2001, the Bulloch County pond was mostly gaining water. At both sites, most ground-water seepage entered the pond following major rainfall events that provided recharge to the surficial aquifer. Net ground-water seepage, estimated using water-budget analysis and simulation, ranged from -11.5 to 15 gallons per minute (gal/min) at the Glynn County pond site and from -55 to 31 gal/min at the Bulloch County pond site. Simulated values during pumping tests indicate that groundwater seepage to both ponds increases with decreased pond stage. At the Glynn County pond, simulated net ground-water seepage varied between 7.8 gal/min at the beginning of the test (high pond stage and low hydraulic gradient) and 103 gal/min at the end of the test (low pond stage and high hydraulic gradient). At the Bulloch County pond site, values ranged from -17.7 gal/min at the beginning of the test to 15 gal/min at the end of the test. Results at the two pond sites indicate that the use of excavated seepage ponds as sources for irrigation supply is limited by pond-storage volume and low net ground-water seepage rates during periods of low precipitation. Pumps withdrawing 1,000 gal/min for 10 hours per dayunder climatic and hydrologic conditions similar to those observed during pond pumping tests at each sitewould drain the Glynn County pond within 30 days and the Bulloch County pond within 3.5 days. Because the two pond sites are considered to represent the extremes of likely conditions to be encountered in the coastal Georgia area, it is likely that other seepage ponds would have similar storage-depletion rates.

Georgia↗
USGS2011

Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude M w 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great earthquakes over the past 5,000 years. The instrumental catalog of earthquakes is of little use for constraining the hazard of the CSZ, because there are virtually no recorded earthquakes on most of the plate interface of the CSZ. There are no historical accounts in the past 150 years of large earthquakes on most of the CSZ. Until about 20 years ago, some interpreted this lack of recent and historical earthquakes as an indicator that the subduction zone was slipping aseismically and could not produce a great earthquake. The work of Brian Atwater and others, in the late 1980s and the 1990s (Atwater, 1987, 1992; Atwater and others, 1995; Nelson and others, 1996; Clague, 1997; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Atwater and others, 2004) demonstrated that submerged forests, buried soils, tsunami deposits, and liquefaction along and near the coast were compelling evidence of repeated great Cascadia earthquakes over at least the past 5,000 years. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley (1997) concluded from paleoseismic evidence at Willapa Bay, Washington, that great earthquakes ruptured the CSZ with an average recurrence time of about 500 years. The date of the last great CSZ earthquake, January 26, 1700, was established from historical records of the so-called orphan tsunami in Japan that is inferred to have been produced by this earthquake (Satake and others, 1996, 2003; Atwater and others, 2005) and is consistent with tree-ring data from drowned forests in Washington and Oregon. From modeling the observations of the tsunami, Satake and others (2003) estimated a moment magnitude of about 9.0 for this earthquake. Many other paleoseismic sites have been investigated along the Pacific Northwest coast from Vancouver Island to northern California and show evidence of great CSZ earthquakes. Nelson and others (2006) summarized the dates found from these studies and proposed correlations between sites indicating the extent of rupture for individual events. Dating of inferred tsunami deposits in Bradley Lake, Oregon by Kelsey and others (2005), as well as tsunami and subsidence evidence from Six Rivers, Oregon (Kelsey and others, 2002) and Coquille River (Witter and others, 2003), indicates that there were probably M w 8 ruptures in the southern portion of the CSZ in addition to the M w 9 events that rupture the whole length of the CSZ (Nelson and others, 2006). A parallel development over the past 20 years or more is the use of deep-sea turbidite deposits for identifying and dating great Cascadia earthquakes over the past 10,000 years (Adams, 1990; Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Turbidites are sediment deposits in the deep ocean from turbidity currents, which are energetic flows of sediment and water along the continental shelf and slope. Adams (1990), using the counts of turbidites in deep-sea cores off the coast of Oregon and Washington collected and analyzed by Griggs (1969) and Griggs and others (1969), proposed that these turbidites were caused by the shaking of great Cascadia earthquakes. Part of his reasoning was that the number (13) of turbidite deposits that occurred since deposition of the Mazama Ash 7,000 years ago gave a recurrence time of about 500 years, consistent with that derived from the coastal submergence data. Adams (1990) also proposed the “confluence test” which evaluates the number of turbidites for submarine channels that form a confluence. He reported that the number of turbidites in the single downstream channel equaled the number in each of the tributary channels. He reasoned that this indicated that the turbidites in each tributary were simultaneously triggered and were, therefore, caused by a common forcing agent. He concluded that shaking from extended ruptures of great Cascadia earthquakes was the most likely cause of these turbidites. Based on the paleoseismic evidence of past great earthquakes, the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone was included in the 1996 U.S. NSHM (Frankel and others, 1996), which were the basis for seismic provisions in the 2000 International Building Code. These hazard maps used the paleoseismic studies to constrain the recurrence rate of great CSZ earthquakes. Goldfinger and his colleagues have since collected many more deep ocean cores and done extensive analysis on the turbidite deposits that they identified in the cores (Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Using their dating of the sediments and correlation of features in the logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores, they developed a detailed chronology of great earthquakes along the CSZ for the past 10,000 years (Goldfinger and others, in press). These correlations consist of attempting to match the peaks and valleys in logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores separated, in some cases, by hundreds of kilometers. Based on this work, Goldfinger and others (2003, 2008, in press) proposed that the turbidite evidence indicated the occurrence of great earthquakes (M w 8) that only ruptured the southern portion of the CSZ, as well as earthquakes with about M w 9 that ruptured the entire length of the CSZ. For the southernmost portion of the CSZ, Goldfinger and others (in press) proposed a recurrence time of M w 8 or larger earthquakes of about 230 years. This proposed recurrence time was shorter than the 500 year time that was incorporated in one scenario in the NSHM’s. It is important to note that the hazard maps of 1996 and later also included a scenario or set of scenarios with a shorter recurrence time for M w 8 earthquakes, using rupture zones that are distributed along the length of the CSZ (Frankel and others, 1996; Petersen and others, 2008). Originally, this scenario was meant to correspond to the idea that some of the 500-year averaged ruptures seen in the paleoseismic evidence could have been a series of M w 8 earthquakes that occurred over a short period of time (a few decades), rather than M w 9 earthquakes. Figure 2 shows the logic tree for the CSZ used in the 2008 NSHM’s (Petersen and others, 2008). This logic tree includes whole CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.8–9.2) and partial CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.0–8.7). In this latest version of the NSHM’s, the effective recurrence time of earthquakes on the CSZ with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 8.0 over the various models is about 270 years (Petersen and others, 2008). This recurrence time applies to the entire CSZ, so that the hazard from great earthquakes was approximately equal along the whole zone, although the hazard estimates taper on the northern and southern ends of the CSZ, because of the way rupture zones of M w 8 earthquakes were distributed along the strike of the CSZ. The NSHM will be updated in 2013, as part of the standard update cycle that corresponds to the update cycle of the national model building codes that are based on the seismic hazard maps. A meeting was necessary to assemble a wide group of experts to hear Dr. Goldfinger explain his methodology for dating and correlating the turbidites and for developing the earthquake chronology. The overall goal of the workshop was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence times and rupture extents of great Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes for the next update of the NSHM. Before the meeting, participants were supplied with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper of Goldfinger and others (in press), as well as material from Brian Atwater and Alan Nelson. The agenda of the meeting was developed by Art Frankel, with assistance from Chris Goldfinger, Brian Atwater, Alan Nelson, Mark Petersen, and Craig Weaver. The meeting was hosted by Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University. We stress that it is difficult to evaluate in a two-day meeting the large amount of work that Goldfinger and his colleagues have done over the past 15 years or more. This meeting is the first step in a process that develops the inputs to the update of the national maps. The conclusions of this workshop will be discussed and possibly modified at the regional Pacific Northwest workshop for the hazard maps to be held in early 2012. Vetting new research results using informed expert opinion is an integral part of updating the national maps and does not reflect on the veracity of these results.

Cascadia↗
USGS1998

Estimate of aquifer properties by numerically simulating ground-water/surface-water interactions, Fort Wainwright, Alaska

MODFLOW, a finite-difference model of ground-water flow, was used to simulate the flow of water between the aquifer and the Chena River at Fort Wainwright, Alaska. The model was calibrated by comparing simulated ground-water hydrographs to those recorded in wells during periods of fluctuating river levels. The best fit between simulated and observed hydrographs occurred for the following: 20 feet per day for vertical hydraulic conductivity, 400 feet per day for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, 1:20 for anisotropy (vertical to horizontal hydraulic conductivity), and 350 per feet for riverbed conductance. These values include a 30 percent adjustment for geometry effects. The estimated values for hydraulic conductivities of the alluvium are based on assumed values of 0.25 for specific yield and 0.000001 per foot for specific storage of the alluvium; the values assumed for bedrock are 0.1 foot per day horizontal hydraulic conductivity, 0.005 foot per day vertical hydraulic conductivity, and 0.0000001 per foot for specific storage. The resulting diffusivity for the alluvial aquifer is 1,600 feet per day. The estimated values of these hydraulic properties are nearly proportional to the assumed value of specific yield. These values were not found to be sensitive to the assumed values for bedrock. The hydrologic parameters estimated using the cross-sectional model are only valid when taken in context with the other values (both estimated and assumed) used in this study. The model simulates horizontal and vertical flow directions near the river during periods of varying river stage. This information is useful for interpreting bank-storage effects, including the flow of contaminants in the aquifer near the river.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Development of a groundwater-simulation model in the Los Angeles Coastal Plain, Los Angeles County, California

Executive Summary The Los Angeles Coastal Plain (LACP) covers about 580 square miles and is the largest coastal plain of semiarid southern California. The LACP is heavily developed with mostly residential, commercial, and industrial land uses that rely heavily on groundwater for water supply. In 2010, the LACP was home to about 14 percent of California’s population, or about 5.4 million residents. The LACP is also a major commercial and industrial hub with industries including manufacturing, aerospace, entertainment, and tourism. There has been a heavy reliance on groundwater from the LACP for many years. An average of 305,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of groundwater was used annually from the LACP from 1971 to 2015. The need to replenish the groundwater basins within the LACP was recognized as far back as the 1930s, when spreading grounds were first used to replenish groundwater basins and store water underground during times of water surplus to meet demands in times of shortage. Seawater intrusion resulting from freshwater pumping was first observed in the 1940s. As a result, injection of imported water through wells at what is now the West Coast Basin Barrier Project began on an experimental basis in 1951. Managed aquifer recharge from the spreading grounds and barrier wells is now a substantial component of the LACP’s groundwater supply. The average annual recharge from water spreading from 1971 to 2015 was about 120,000 acre-ft/yr, and the average annual injection into the barrier wells was about 33,000 acre-ft/yr. Other inflows include areal recharge, underflow from San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys, and onshore flow from the ocean. The average annual recharge from these sources was 100,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) from 1971 to 2015. Additionally, cross-boundary flow from Orange County into the western Orange County subareas of the LACP was simulated as 48,000 acre-ft from 1971 to 2015. This study, conducted in cooperation with the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRD), involved an assessment of the historical and present status of groundwater resources in the LACP and the development of tools to better understand the groundwater system. These efforts were built upon results from previous studies and incorporate new information and developments in modeling capabilities to provide a more detailed analysis of the aquifer systems. This study includes a comprehensive compilation of geologic and hydrologic data (Chapter A), development of a chronostratigraphic model that provides a detailed description of the LACP aquifer systems (Chapter B), characterization of the groundwater hydrology of the LACP, including a down-hole analysis of grain size using lithologic and geophysical logs (Chapter C), and development and application of the Los Angeles Coastal Plain Groundwater-flow Model (LACPGM) to simulate past groundwater conditions, estimate groundwater-budget components and flow paths, and approximate future groundwater conditions under different scenarios (Chapter D).

California↗
USGS1984

Hydrogeology and effects of tailings basins on the hydrology of Sands Plain, Marquette County, Michigan

Sands Plain, a 225-square mile area, is near the Marquette iron-mining district in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Gribben Basin, a settling basin for disposal of waste rock particles from iron-ore concentration, is in the western part. Because Sands Plain is near iron-ore deposits, but not underlain by them, parts of the area are being considered as sites for additional tailings basins. Glacial deposits, as much as 500 feet thick, comprise the principal aquifer. Most ground water flows through the glacial deposits and discharges in a series of nearly parallel tributaries to the Chocolay River which flows into Lake Superior. Ninety-five percent of the discharge of these streams is ground-water runoff. The aquifer is recharged by precipitation at an average rate of 15 inches per year and by streamflow losses from the upper reaches of Goose Lake Outlet at an average rate of 2 inches per year. Precipitation collected at two sites had mean pH values of 4.0; rates of deposition of sulfate and total dissolved nitrogen were estimated to be 17.4 and 5.8 pounds per acre per year, respectively. Dissolved-solids concentrations in water from streams ranged from 82 to 143 milligrams per liter; sulfate ranged from 4.2 to 10 milligrams per liter. Calcium and bicarbonate were the principal dissolved substances. Highest dissolved-solids concentrations in water from wells in glacial deposits were found in a major buried valley east of Goose Lake Outlet. These concentrations ranged from 14 to 246 milligrams per liter; sulfate concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 53 milligrams per liter. Because of the high ground-water component of streamflow, mean concentrations of total nitrogen and trace metals in surface water do not differ significantly from mean concentrations in ground water. A two-dimensional digital model of ground-water flow was used to simulate water levels and ground-water runoff under steady-state and transient conditions Predictive simulations with the steady-state model were made to determine the effects of continued operation of Gribben tailings basin and construction and operation of four hypothetical tailings basins. Operation of Gribben Basin has decreased the average rate of ground-water flow to Goose Lake Outlet by 0.9 to 1.6 cubic feet per second but has increased the average rate of groundwater flow to Warner Creek by about 0.2 cubic foot per second. Continued filling of the tailings basin to its design capacity is expected to cause a slight increase in leakage from the basin to Goose Lake Outlet. Four hypothetical tailings basins, comprising a total of 11 square miles, were simulated by successively adding one more basin to the previous basin configuration. Net ground-water flow to streams was reduced by the simulated basins. The magnitude of these reductions depends on engineering decisions about the method of basin construction and a better understanding of the hydraulic properties of the materials used to seal the basin perimeters. The maximum total reduction in ground-water runoff due to construction and operation of 11 square miles of tailings basins is about 18 cubic feet per second compared to flow simulated by a steady-state simulation without tailings basins. If bottom sealing, rather than slurry wall construction, is used for one of the hypothetical basins, the total maximum reduction is 7.5 cubic feet per second. Under some assumed conditions, leakage from the tailings basins may slightly increase ground-water flow to Goose Lake Outlet and Warner Creek. The maximum probable leakage from all tailings basins is about 7 cubic feet per second; the minimum probable leakage is about 0.7 cubic foot per second.

Michigan↗