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USGS2018

Assessment of potential risks from renewable energy development and other anthropogenic factors to wintering Golden Eagles in the western United States

Wind and other energy development are expanding rapidly and on an unprecedented scale within the range of the Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) while other anthropogenic-related changes, wildfires, invasive plants, drought, and climate change are altering or destroying native habitats occupied by Golden Eagles. However, the potential effects of these factors on North American Golden Eagle populations are largely unknown and the most recent evidence indicates that the population in the western United States is declining slightly. Impediments to evaluating the potential effects of energy development projects on wintering Golden Eagles include issues of scale and a paucity of available information about eagle winter use areas and ecology. We applied a predictive model of eagle winter distribution developed for Idaho and Montana, to Idaho, Utah, Nevada and eastern Oregon to help identify potential wintering areas and identify risks that occur in those areas. The model identifies ~40% of the four state study area as potentially suitable eagle winter habitat and provides a basis for spatial assessment of possible risk factors to eagles wintering there. We used eBird and Christmas Bird Count citizen science datasets for an independent evaluation of the accuracy of our predictive distribution model. The model was robust, accurately predicting the presence of wintering Golden Eagles significantly more often than expected. We used digital environmental datasets (layers) of potential risk factors, in conjunction with model predicted eagle distribution, to better understand and estimate the extent of risks to the wintering eagle population in the study area. These layers represent available data for some of the factors previously identified as risks in the landscape to wintering Golden Eagles. The majority of predicted eagle wintering areas occurred where there was little habitat fragmentation (<10%). All predicted winter areas contained at least one potential risk factor (e.g., potential for energy development); 39.4% of predicted winter areas contained at least two known risk factors. The greatest number of risks often occurred where the human footprint was highest and where eagles were less likely to occur during winter. Our results can be used to help prioritize field surveys for identifying important Golden Eagle winter areas in the western United States and determine potential locations where energy development is least likely to have negative effects on wintering eagles. Survey efforts can be allocated in consideration of management and conservation objectives based on predicted habitat suitability and risk factors. For example, surveys for areas of high suitability and low risk can identify places to focus management for conservation of eagle winter areas. Further, sites proposed for wind energy development could be reviewed initially based on model predicted eagle wintering areas and then surveyed to determine if permitting for development is appropriate.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Sustainability of the Lake Superior fish community: Interactions in a food web context

The restoration and rehabilitation of the native fish communities is a long-term goal for the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Superior, the ongoing restoration of the native lake trout populations is now regarded as one of the major success stories in fisheries management. However, populations of the deepwater morphotype (siscowet lake trout) have increased much more substantially than those of the nearshore morphotype (lean lake trout), and the ecosystem now contains an assemblage of exotic species such as sea lamprey, rainbow smelt, and Pacific salmon (chinook, coho, and steelhead). Those species play an important role in defining the constraints and opportunities for ecosystem management. We combined an equilibrium mass balance model (Ecopath) with a dynamic food web model (Ecosim) to evaluate the ecological consequences of future alternative management strategies and the interaction of two different sets of life history characteristics for fishes at the top of the food web. Relatively rapid turnover rates occur among the exotic forage fish, rainbow smelt, and its primary predators, exotic Pacific salmonids. Slower turnover rates occur among the native lake trout and burbot and their primary prey—lake herring, smelt, deepwater cisco, and sculpins. The abundance of forage fish is a key constraint for all salmonids in Lake Superior. Smelt and Mysis play a prominent role in sustaining the current trophic structure. Competition between the native lake trout and the exotic salmonids is asymmetric. Reductions in the salmon population yield only a modest benefit for the stocks of lake trout, whereas increased fishing of lake trout produces substantial potential increases in the yields of Pacific salmon to recreational fisheries. The deepwater or siscowet morphotype of lake trout has become very abundant. Although it plays a major role in the structure of the food web it offers little potential for the restoration of a valuable commercial or recreational fishery. Even if a combination of strong management actions is implemented, the populations of lean (nearshore) lake trout cannot be restored to pre-fishery and pre-lamprey levels. Thus, management strategy must accept the ecological constraints due in part to the presence of exotics and choose alternatives that sustain public interest in the resources while continuing the gradual progress toward restoration.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2015

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2009

Summer spatial patterning of chukars in relation to free water in Western Utah

Free water is considered important to wildlife in arid regions. In the western United States, thousands of water developments have been built to benefit wildlife in arid landscapes. Agencies and researchers have yet to clearly demonstrate their effectiveness. We combined a spatial analysis of summer chukar (Alectoris chukar) covey locations with dietary composition analysis in western Utah. Our specific objectives were to determine if chukars showed a spatial pattern that suggested association with free water in four study areas and to document summer dietary moisture content in relation to average distance from water. The observed data for the Cedar Mountains study area fell within the middle of the random mean distance to water distribution suggesting no association with free water. The observed mean distance to water for the other three areas was much closer than expected compared to a random spatial process, suggesting the importance of free water to these populations. Dietary moisture content of chukar food items from the Cedar Mountains (59%) was significantly greater (P < 0.05) than that of birds from Box Elder (44%) and Keg-Dugway (44%). Water developments on the Cedar Mountains are likely ineffective for chukars. Spatial patterns on the other areas, however, suggest association with free water and our results demonstrate the need for site-specific considerations. Researchers should be aware of the potential to satisfy water demand with pre-formed and metabolic water for a variety of species in studies that address the effects of wildlife water developments. We encourage incorporation of spatial structure in model error components in future ecological research. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2015

Rapid isolation of microsatellite DNAs and identification of polymorphic mitochondrial DNA regions in the fish rotan (Perccottus glenii) invading European Russia

Human-mediated translocations and subsequent large-scale colonization by the invasive fish rotan (Perccottus glenii Dybowski, 1877; Perciformes, Odontobutidae), also known as Amur or Chinese sleeper, has resulted in dramatic transformations of small lentic ecosystems. However, no detailed genetic information exists on population structure, levels of effective movement, or relatedness among geographic populations of P. glenii within the European part of the range. We used massively parallel genomic DNA shotgun sequencing on the semiconductor-based Ion Torrent Personal Genome Machine (PGM) sequencing platform to identify nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA sequences in P. glenii from European Russia. Here we describe the characterization of nine nuclear microsatellite loci, ascertain levels of allelic diversity, heterozygosity, and demographic status of P. glenii collected from Ilev, Russia, one of several initial introduction points in European Russia. In addition, we mapped sequence reads to the complete P. glenii mitochondrial DNA sequence to identify polymorphic regions. Nuclear microsatellite markers developed for P. glenii yielded sufficient genetic diversity to: (1) produce unique multilocus genotypes; (2) elucidate structure among geographic populations; and (3) provide unique perspectives for analysis of population sizes and historical demographics. Among 4.9 million filtered P. glenii Ion Torrent PGM sequence reads, 11,304 mapped to the mitochondrial genome (NC_020350). This resulted in 100 % coverage of this genome to a mean coverage depth of 102X. A total of 130 variable sites were observed between the publicly available genome from China and the studied composite mitochondrial genome. Among these, 82 were diagnostic and monomorphic between the mitochondrial genomes and distributed among 15 genome regions. The polymorphic sites (N = 48) were distributed among 11 mitochondrial genome regions. Our results also indicate that sequence reads generated from two three-hour runs on the Ion Torrent PGM can generate a sufficient number of nuclear and mitochondrial markers to improve understanding of the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of non-model and in particular, invasive species.

European Russia↗

USGS2024

A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

The US faces multiple challenges in facilitating the safe, effective, and proactive use of fire as a landscape management tool. This intentional fire use exposes deeply ingrained communication challenges and distinct but overlapping strategies of prescribed fire, cultural burning, and managed wildfire. We argue for a new conceptual model that is organized around ecological conditions, capacity to act, and motivation to use fire and can integrate and expand intentional fire use as a tool. This result emerges from more considered collaboration and communication of values and needs to address the negative consequences of contemporary fire use. When applied as a communication and translation tool, there is potential to lower barriers to faster and more successful collaboration among stakeholders. Such improvements are a vital part of strategies to address climate adaptation, wildfire mitigation, and the well-being of ecosystems.

Cell Reports Sustainability↗

USGS2023

A 1300-year microfaunal record from the Beaufort Sea shelf indicates exceptional climate-related environmental changes over the last two centuries

The environments of Arctic Ocean nearshore areas experience high intra- and inter-annual variability, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic warming. However, a sediment record from the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea allowed us to reconstruct the impacts of climate and environmental changes over the last 1300 years along the northern Yukon coast, Canada. The coring site (PG2303; 69.513°N, 138.895°W; water depth 32 m) is located in the Herschel Basin, where high sedimentation rates (0.1–0.5 cm a −1 ) allowed analyses at sub-centennial to decadal resolutions. Benthic foraminiferal, ostracod, and tintinnid assemblages, as well as the stable isotope composition of the foraminifera Elphidium clavatum and Cassidulina reniforme were used as paleoclimatic and ecological indicators, while the age model was based on the combined radiometric data of 14 C, 210 Pb and 137 Cs . From ca 700 to 1050 CE, our data suggest penetration of offshore shelf-break waters inferred by the dominance of C. reniforme followed by the relatively abundant Triloculina trihedra in the foraminiferal assemblages as both species are associated with stable saline conditions. Afterwards, the occurrence of ostracods Kotoracythere arctoborealis and Normanicythere leioderma suggests influx of Pacific-sourced waters until ca. 1150 CE. From ∼1150–1650 CE, persistent frigid waters, limited sediment supply, and low abundances of microfossils suggest cold conditions with pervasive annual sea-ice cover that may have restricted upwelling of oceanic waters. After ∼1800 CE, the co-occurrence of Tintinnopsis fimbriata and bacterial/complex organic carbon feeder foraminifera ( Quinqueloculina stalkeri , Textularia earlandi and Stetsonia horvathi ), suggest an increased influence of freshwater rich in particulate organic matter, which may be related to the spreading of the Mackenzie River plume and/or increased coastal permafrost erosion during longer ice-free seasons. Based on these proxy data, the shift at ∼1800 CE marks the onset of regional warming, which further intensified after ∼1955 CE, likely in response to the anthropogenic forcing.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2010

A comprehensive multilocus phylogeny for the wood-warblers and a revised classification of the Parulidae (Aves)

The birds in the family Parulidae-commonly termed the New World warblers or wood-warblers-are a classic model radiation for studies of ecological and behavioral differentiation. Although the monophyly of a 'core' wood-warbler clade is well established, no phylogenetic hypothesis for this group has included a full sampling of wood-warbler species diversity. We used parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods to reconstruct relationships among all genera and nearly all wood-warbler species, based on a matrix of mitochondrial DNA (5840 nucleotides) and nuclear DNA (6 loci, 4602 nucleotides) characters. The resulting phylogenetic hypotheses provide a highly congruent picture of wood-warbler relationships, and indicate that the traditional generic classification of these birds recognizes many non-monophyletic groups. We recommend a revised taxonomy in which each of 14 genera (Seiurus, Helmitheros, Mniotilta, Limnothlypis, Protonotaria, Parkesia, Vermivora, Oreothlypis, Geothlypis, Setophaga, Myioborus, Cardellina, Basileuterus, Myiothlypis) corresponds to a well-supported clade; these nomenclatural changes also involve subsuming a number of well-known, traditional wood-warbler genera (Catharopeza, Dendroica, Ergaticus, Euthlypis, Leucopeza, Oporornis, Parula, Phaeothlypis, Wilsonia). We provide a summary phylogenetic hypothesis that will be broadly applicable to investigations of the historical biogeography, processes of diversification, and evolution of trait variation in this well studied avian group. ?? 2010 Elsevier Inc.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Generating community-built tools for data sharing and analysis in environmental networks

Rapid data growth in many environmental sectors has necessitated tools to manage and analyze these data. The development of tools often lags behind the proliferation of data, however, which may slow exploratory opportunities and scientific progress. The Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) collaborative model supports an efficient and comprehensive data–analysis–insight life cycle, including implementations of data quality control checks, statistical calculations/derivations, models, and data visualizations. These tools are community-built and openly shared. We discuss the network structure that enables tool development and a culture of sharing, leading to optimized output from limited resources. Specifically, data sharing and a flat collaborative structure encourage the development of tools that enable scientific insights from these data. Here we provide a cross-section of scientific advances derived from global-scale analyses in GLEON. We document enhancements to science capabilities made possible by the development of analytical tools and highlight opportunities to expand this framework to benefit other environmental networks.

Inland Waters↗

USGS2021

Forecasting community reassembly using climate-linked spatio-temporal ecosystem models

Ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human activities, altering linkages among physical and biological components. Spatial community reassembly occurs when these human impacts modify the spatial overlap between system components, and there is need for practical tools to forecast spatial community reassembly at landscape scales using monitoring data. To illustrate a new approach, we extend a generalization of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which involves a spatio‐temporal ecosystem model that approximates coupled physical, biological and human dynamics. We then demonstrate its application to five trophic levels for the eastern Bering Sea by fitting to multiple, spatially unbalanced datasets measuring physical characteristics (temperature measurements and climate‐linked forecasts), primary producers (spring and fall size‐fractionated chlorophyll‐a), secondary producers (copepods), juveniles (age‐0 walleye pollock), adult consumers (five commercially important fishes), human activities (seasonal fishing effort) and mobile predators (seabirds). We identify the spatial niche for each ecosystem component, as well as dominant modes of variability that are highly correlated with a known bottom–up driver of dynamics. We then measure spatial overlap between interacting variables (using Schoener's‐D) and identify that age‐0 pollock have decreased spatial overlap with copepods and increased overlap with adult pollock during warm years, and also that adult pollock have increased overlap with arrowtooth flounder and decreased overlap with catcher–processor fishing effort during these warm years. Given the warming conditions that are projected for the coming decade, the model forecasts increased prey and competitor overlap involving adult pollock (between age‐0 pollock, adult pollock and arrowtooth flounder) and decreased overlap with the copepod forage base and with the catcher–processor fishery during future warming. We recommend that joint species distribution models be extended to incorporate ‘ecological teleconnections' (correlations between distant locations arising from known mechanisms) arising from behavioral adaptation by mobile animals as well as passive advection of nutrients and planktonic juvenile stages.

Ecography↗

USGS2005

Modelling habitat associations with fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) counts at multiple spatial scales using hierarchical count models

1. Macroinvertebrate count data often exhibit nested or hierarchical structure. Examples include multiple measurements along each of a set of streams, and multiple synoptic measurements from each of a set of ponds. With data exhibiting hierarchical structure, outcomes at both sampling (e.g. within stream) and aggregated (e.g. stream) scales are often of interest. Unfortunately, methods for modelling hierarchical count data have received little attention in the ecological literature. 2. We demonstrate the use of hierarchical count models using fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) count data and habitat predictors derived from sampling and aggregated spatial scales. The sampling scale corresponded to that of a standard Ponar grab (0.052 m 2 ) and the aggregated scale to impounded and backwater regions within 38–197 km reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Impounded and backwater regions were resampled annually for 10 years. Consequently, measurements on clams were nested within years. Counts were treated as negative binomial random variates, and means from each resampling event as random departures from the impounded and backwater region grand means. 3. Clam models were improved by the addition of covariates that varied at both the sampling and regional scales. Substrate composition varied at the sampling scale and was associated with model improvements, and reductions (for a given mean) in variance at the sampling scale. Inorganic suspended solids (ISS) levels, measured in the summer preceding sampling, also yielded model improvements and were associated with reductions in variances at the regional rather than sampling scales. ISS levels were negatively associated with mean clam counts. 4. Hierarchical models allow hierarchically structured data to be modelled without ignoring information specific to levels of the hierarchy. In addition, information at each hierarchical level may be modelled as functions of covariates that themselves vary by and within levels. As a result, hierarchical models provide researchers and resource managers with a method for modelling hierarchical data that explicitly recognises both the sampling design and the information contained in the corresponding data.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Ants as a measure of effectiveness of habitat conservation planning in southern California

In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed .

California↗

USGS2006

Risk of Myxobolus cerebralis infection to rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA

Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite that causes salmonid whirling disease, has had detrimental effects on several salmonid populations in the Intermountain West, including the rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA. The goal of this study was to examine relationships among characteristics of the environment, Tubifex tubifex (the alternate host) populations, and rainbow trout whirling disease risk in the Madison River. Environmental characteristics were measured in side channels of the Madison River, and differences were described with a principal components analysis. The density of T. tubifex, the prevalence of infection in T. tubifex, and the density of infected T. tubifex were determined for the side channels using benthic core samples and examination of live tubificids for infection. The site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk in the side channels was determined using in situ exposures of sentinel rainbow trout. Regression analyses were used to determine correlations among these characteristics. Side channels differed in site-specific contribution to rainbow trout whirling disease risk, which was positively correlated to the density of infected T. tubifex. Side channels with fine sediments and lower water temperatures made greater site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk and had higher densities of infected T. tubifex than side channels with coarser sediments and higher temperatures. The ability to characterize areas of high whirling disease risk is essential for improving our understanding of the dynamics of M. cerebralis such that appropriate management strategies can be implemented. In addition, this study provides a model of how the disease ecology of complex aquatic parasites can be examined when the influential processes operate on different spatial scales. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Montana↗

USGS2006

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Report↗

USGS2015

A framework for decision points to trigger adaptive management actions in long-term incidental take permits

Introduction The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has begun to issue incidental take permits (ITPs) to wind power companies to allow limited take of bird and bat species that are protected under the Endangered Species Act, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, or the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (Huso and others, 2015). Expected take rates are determined using scientifically based collision-risk models and knowledge about the ecology of the population of interest. ITPs often include mitigation requirements to compensate for estimated take and further describe (1) adaptive management actions (AMAs) that may be required to reduce take rates if permitted rate is exceeded, or (2) additional compensatory mitigation to offset take that exceeds permitted levels. Confirming the accuracy of predicted take and providing evidence that permitted take levels have not been exceeded can be challenging because carcasses may be detected with probability much less than 1, and often no carcasses are observed. When detection probability is high, finding 0 carcasses can be interpreted as evidence that none (or few) were actually killed. As the probability of observing an individual decreases, the likelihood of missing carcasses increases, making it unclear how to interpret having observed 0 (or few) carcasses. In a practical sense, the consequences of incorrect inference can be significant: overestimating take could result in costly and unjustified mitigation, whereas underestimating could result in unanticipated declines in species populations already at risk.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Physics to fish—Understanding the factors that create and sustain native fish habitat in the San Francisco Estuary

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Central Valley Project (CVP), one of the nation’s largest water projects. Reclamation has an ongoing need to improve the scientific basis for adaptive management of the CVP and, by extension, joint operations with California’s State Water Project. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works cooperatively with the Bureau of Reclamation to provide scientific support for the management of Reclamation’s CVP project. Major habitat restoration efforts and a new water-diversion point are planned to benefit delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) and other species of concern while ensuring the reliability of water supply. In addition, various flow actions and management activities have been identified as possible methods to increase populations of delta smelt and salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) runs of concern. The overarching goal of this cooperative project was to provide Reclamation with the scientific information needed to evaluate the efficacy of ongoing and future adaptive management actions and to improve the scientific basis for more flexible CVP operations that would achieve water-supply reliability and fish protection. The research and monitoring described in this report comprises the period 2015–19 and focuses on management issues related to native fish species of concern, especially delta smelt. Conserving the delta smelt population while providing a reliable water supply is a primary management and policy issue in California. Our approach for this cooperative project is based on the “physics to fish” concept, the idea that high-quality habitat is generated and sustained by the interaction between physical processes and the landscape. These interactions create a template for chemical and biological processes that can change across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Following this concept, this project (hereafter referred to as “the physics to fish project”) included monitoring and studies of water flows, sediments, water quality, and invertebrate and fish dynamics across a range of spatial and temporal scales and in regions relevant to resource managers tasked with managing water supplies and ecosystem health in the San Francisco Estuary. The intent of this approach was to document the habitat conditions, important processes, and interactions among them that create high-quality habitat for native fishes so that the likely effects of future management actions (for example, habitat restoration) can be objectively assessed at the local (site-specific), regional (within subregions of the estuary), and landscape (across the entire estuary and beyond) scales. Hydrodynamically, the upper estuary (landward of Carquinez Strait) is characterized by a fixed volume of tidally exchanged water (for example, tidal prism) that interacts with the existing channel network and bathymetry to create regions with differing hydrodynamics. Our results indicate that careful study of construction or reoperation of existing infrastructure to perform management actions can help (1) improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic models; (2) further understanding of ecological effects; and (3) enhance abilities to predict ecological outcomes. At the local scale, we developed a new concept called the Lagrangian to Eulerian (LE) ratio that can be used as a tool for understanding the importance of various hydrodynamic processes in specific channels or channel networks and for forecasting transport dynamics. Channels with LE ratios<1 in a channel network or in a dead-end slough are hydrodynamically able to develop an exchange zone between two parcels of water that may have different chemical and physical properties. In a dead-end channel, there is a landward region with long residence time (no-exchange zone) and a seaward region with short residence time (high-exchange zone) that are well mixed with seaward waters. At the transition (exchange zone) between the high and no-exchange regions, a gradient will form in water-quality constituents that differ in concentration between the landward and seaward waters. Turbidity affects fish habitat and has declined through time in the San Francisco Estuary. Average turbidity across the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter referred to as “the Delta”) is dependent on annual hydrology. In dry years, the region around Cache Slough (known regionally as the “Cache Slough Complex”) in the northern Delta is generally more turbid than Suisun Bay and the lower Sacramento River. When the Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), a large flood bypass that runs parallel to the Sacramento River in the northern Delta, is not flooding and river flows are lower, sediment is usually transported into the Cache Slough Complex because flood tides dominate ebb tides, resulting in transport of suspended sediment from seaward areas of the upper estuary into the Cache Slough Complex. These hydrodynamic conditions also favor the formation of turbidity maximums (TMs) in the Cache Slough Complex. The TMs are areas of higher suspended-sediment concentration, providing higher-turbidity habitat favored by some fishes, including delta smelt, and they can also concentrate other constituents, including phytoplankton and organic carbon that can be important in food webs. Pelagic primary production by phytoplankton is the basis for Delta food webs supporting pelagic fishes such as delta smelt; however, phytoplankton abundance in the Delta has declined during recent decades. We examined how nutrients, hydrodynamics, and other factors affect phytoplankton blooms. Based on our results, we developed three new concepts of phytoplankton bloom formation in the Delta, each associated with a distinct set of hydrologic conditions. First, productivity cascades highlighted how local processes can contribute to phytoplankton blooms observed at the regional scale. Second, we observed phytoplankton blooms in the upper San Francisco Estuary that were associated with transport out of Yolo By-Pass (transport blooms). Third, we also documented a series of phytoplankton blooms that were in the confluence area at the landward edge of Suisun Bay. The conditions leading to creation of confluence phytoplankton blooms are not yet understood, but the confluence region connects the Cache Slough Complex with Suisun Marsh. Therefore, blooms in this area have the potential to spread to large areas of the Delta. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the invasive clams ( Potamocorbula amurensis and Corbicula fluminea , hereafter referred to as “ Corbicula ”) is driven by salinity. At smaller spatial scales, the distribution of either species is sensitive to multiple factors affecting survival and reproduction, complicating efforts to predict distribution and abundance without considering local-scale conditions across the area of interest. In the Cache Slough Complex, the area landward of the exchange zone in regions with LE ratio<1 were characterized by low abundances of Corbicula probably because recruits from seaward areas are not transported past the exchange zone and because there are no landward tributaries with adult Corbicula to provide an upstream source of recruits. Corbicula biomass was highest near or downstream from the exchange zone consistent with Corbicula grazing on phytoplankton produced in the exchange zone or transported from the no-exchange zone. The severity of Corbicula grazing could be reduced by manipulating the hydrodynamic characteristics of waterways; however, the beneficial and harmful effects on the organisms meant to benefit from increased phytoplankton production, including zooplankton and fish species of concern, should be thoroughly examined before manipulating hydrodynamic characteristics. The distribution of fishes at the landscape scale is generally driven by the position of the salinity field in the estuary. The physics to fish project compared distributions of fishes at Ryer Island, a tidal wetland in Suisun Bay and a region of variable salinity, with fish distributions at the Cache Slough Complex, a freshwater region. At Ryer Island, there was an absence of freshwater invasive species and an abundance of native species, such as Sacramento splittail ( Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ), tule perch ( Hysterocarpus traskii ), and Sacramento pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus grandis ). The native species were almost exclusively captured in wetland and nearshore shallow-water habitat regardless of water-quality conditions. In the Cache Slough Complex, our regional scale objective was to elucidate how hydrodynamic-physical habitat interactions drive fish-community structure. Our studies showed that dendritic channel systems were better able to support native species, while intertidal habitats supported those species best able to exploit the transient character of the habitat. Habitats upstream from the exchange zone were especially important in supporting high numbers of native fishes relative to within or downstream from the exchange zone. Many of the native species were associated with tidal marsh in the no-exchange zone. More pelagic-oriented, mobile species, such as Striped Bass ( Morone saxatilis ), threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ), and Sacramento pikeminnow, were more affected by water-quality conditions, such as turbidity. The physics to fish concept developed in this project provides a framework for designing individual projects and for considering the cumulative effects of multiple projects in a region, using the LE ratio as a guiding metric. The physics to fish concept may also provide a suitable framework for coordinating management actions. Tidal wetlands can function in several ways in the hydrodynamic framework. Relatively small tidal wetlands with short channel networks and with LE ratios>1 are not able to maintain a landward no-exchange zone or an exchange zone. This likely means that any contributions to pelagic food webs would be limited to resources derived from wetland vegetation, which can include dissolved and particulate organic matter (detritus) and populations of consumers that can increase in abundance based on those resources. The fate of the contributed production from these channels depends on the characteristics of the receiving waters seaward of the tidal wetland. If these channels join a large system such as Suisun Bay, then any contribution is likely to be rapidly dispersed in the larger volume; however, the channel junction might provide a focal point for consumers, such as fishes, to congregate and feed on material leaving the wetland on ebb tides before it is dispersed in the larger volume. Fishes might also access these resources by entering the wetland. The physics to fish project has established a foundation and several new concepts for understanding how habitat restoration can benefit native fish populations at the local and regional levels. Many of the ideas regarding habitat restoration and channel modifications outlined in this report could help guide management actions that could improve conditions for native fishes at little or no water cost beyond water already dedicated to other management actions. A complete list of products originating from this work is provided in appendix 1.

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