Evaluation of management efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment contributions to the Chesapeake Bay estuary
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Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.
Massachusetts streams and stream basins have been subjected to a wide variety of human alterations since colonial times. These alterations include water withdrawals, treated wastewater discharges, construction of onsite septic systems and dams, forest clearing, and urbanization—all of which have the potential to affect streamflow regimes, water quality, and habitat integrity for fish and other aquatic biota. Indicators were developed to characterize these types of potential alteration for subbasins and groundwater contributing areas in Massachusetts. The potential alteration of streamflow by the combined effects of withdrawals and discharges was assessed under two water-use scenarios. Water-use scenario 1 incorporated publicly reported groundwater withdrawals and discharges, direct withdrawals from and discharges to streams, and estimated domestic-well withdrawals and septic-system discharges. Surface-water-reservoir withdrawals were excluded from this scenario. Water-use scenario 2 incorporated all the types of withdrawal and discharge included in scenario 1 as well as withdrawals from surface-water reservoirs—all on a long-term, mean annual basis. All withdrawal and discharge data were previously reported to the State for the 2000–2004 period, except domestic-well withdrawals and septic-system discharges, which were estimated for this study. The majority of the state’s subbasins and groundwater contributing areas were estimated to have relatively minor (less than 10 percent) alteration of streamflow under water-use scenario 1 (seasonally varying water use; no surface-water-reservoir withdrawals). However, about 12 percent of subbasins and groundwater contributing areas were estimated to have extensive alteration of streamflows (greater than 40 percent) in August; most of these basins were concentrated in the outer metropolitan Boston region. Potential surcharging of streamflow in August was most commonly indicated for main-stem river subbasins, although surcharging was also indicated for some smaller tributary subbasins. In the high-flow month of April, only 4.8 percent of subbasins and groundwater contributing areas had more than 10 percent potential flow alteration. A majority of the state’s subbasins and groundwater contributing areas were also indicated to have relatively minor alteration of streamflow under water-use scenario 2 (long-term average water use, including surface-water-reservoir withdrawals). Extensive alteration of mean annual flows was estimated for about 6 percent of the state’s subbasins and groundwater contributing areas. The majority of subbasins estimated to have extensive long-term flow alteration contained reservoirs that were specifically designed, constructed, and managed to supply drinking water to cities. Only a small number of subbasins and groundwater contributing areas (1 percent) were extensively surcharged on a long-term, mean annual basis. Because site-specific data concerning surface-water-reservoir storage dynamics and management practices are not available statewide, the seasonal effects of surface-water-reservoir withdrawals on downstream flows could not be assessed in this study. The impounded storage ratio (volume of impounded subbasin or groundwater-contributing-area storage divided by mean annual predevelopment outflow from the subbasin or contributing area, in units of days) indicates the potential for alteration of streamflow, sediment-transport, and temperature regimes by dams, independent of water use. Storage ratios were less than 1 day for 33 percent of the subbasins and groundwater contributing areas, greater than 1 month for about 40 percent of the cases, and greater than 1 year for 3.2 percent of the cases statewide. Dam density, an indicator of stream-habitat fragmentation by dams, averaged 1 dam for every 6.7 stream miles statewide. Many of these dams are not presently (2009) being managed. The highest dam densities were in portions of Worcester County and in the Plymouth-Carver region, respectively, reflecting the historical reliance of Massachusetts industry upon water power and agricultural water-management practices in southeastern Massachusetts. Impervious cover is a frequently used indicator of urban land use. About 33 percent of the state’s 1,429 subbasins and groundwater contributing areas are relatively undeveloped at the local scale, with a local impervious cover of less than 4 percent. About 18 percent of Massachusetts subbasins and contributing areas are highly developed, with a local impervious cover greater than 16 percent. The remaining 49 percent of subbasins and contributing areas have levels of urban development between these extremes (4 to 16 percent local impervious cover). Cumulative impervious cover, defined for the entire upstream area encompassed by each subbasin, shows a smaller range (0 to 55 percent) than local impervious cover. Both local and cumulative impervious cover were highest in metropolitan Boston and other urban centers. High elevated impervious-cover values were also found along major transportation corridors. The water-quality status of Massachusetts streams is assessed periodically by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection pursuant to the requirements of the Federal Clean Water Act. Streams selected for assessment are commonly located in larger subbasins where some degree of impairment is expected. In the 72 percent of the state’s subbasins and groundwater contributing areas with assessed streams in 2002, more than 50 percent of the assessed stream miles were considered impaired. All of the assessed stream miles were considered impaired in 66 percent of the subbasins and groundwater contributing areas with assessed streams. Large streams, such as the main stems of rivers that make up most of the assessed stream miles, also are in many cases the receiving waters for treated wastewater discharges and for this reason may be more susceptible to water-quality impairments than smaller streams. Subbasins and contributing areas with large fractions of assessed stream miles that are listed as impaired are distributed across the state, but are more prevalent in eastern Massachusetts.
Relations between water-quality and flow characteristics and the relative importance of constant (point sources and ground-water discharge) and intermittent (nonpoint storm runoff) sources were determined for eight water-quality stations located on the Flat Brook and the Delaware, Musconetcong, Whippany, and Saddle Rivers. Water-quality and streamflow data were categorized on the basis of streamflow at the time of sample collection. Differences in concentrations and yields of selected water-quality constituents, including nutrients and bacteria, (1) among the stations during eight streamflow conditions and (2) at each station (a) between base flow and stormflow; (b) among before, during, and after a storm; and (c) among low, medium, and high flows were determined and related to the predominant type(s) of land development in the areas contributing drainage. At the station on the Delaware River, yields of fecal-coliform bacteria were affected more by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharges; yields during a storm [7.0 x 108 (MPN/d)mi2 (most probable number per day per square mile)] were greater than yields during base flow (3.7 x 108 (MPN/d)mi2). Yields of nitrate plus nitrite, alkalinity, and chloride were affected more by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharges than by contributions from storm runoff; yields of these constituents were not significantly different during base flows and stormflows. At the Flat Brook and Whippany River stations, yields of most water-quality constituents were affected more by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharge. For example, yields of nitrate plus nitrite were greater during stormflow (1.20 (lb/d)/mi2 (pounds per day per square mile) and 15.88 (lb/d)/mi2, respectively) than during base flow (0.26 (lb/d)/mi2 and 8.20 (lb/d)/mi2, respectively). At the Musconetcong River station, yields of total nitrogen, alkalinity, and chloride were affected more by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharge. At three of the four water-quality stations on the Musconetcong River, yields of total phosphorus and bacteria were affected less by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharge. At the Saddle River station, yields of alkalinity and chloride were affected more by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharge; for example, yields of chloride during stormflows (707 (lb/d)/mi2) were greater than during base flows (401 (lb/d)/mi2). Yields of total phosphorus were affected less by contributions from storm runoff than by contributions from point sources and ground-water discharge; yields during base flows (4.00 (lb/d)/mi2) and stormflows (4.67 (lb/d)/mi2) were similar. Concentrations and yields of total phosphorus and nitrogen, and nitrate plus nitrite were strongly related to the amount of development in each drainage basin. At stations on the Saddle and Whippany Rivers, which drain areas with substantial development, concentrations and yields for all streamflow categories were higher than at stations on the Flat Brook and Delaware River, which drain areas with little development. Results of the Tukey test indicate that there are significant differences in total phosphorus concentrations at Saddle River and Flat Brook during base flows (0.77 mg/L (milligrams per liter) and 0.02 mg/L, respectively) and stormflows (0.42 mg/L and 0.02 mg/L, respectively).
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the East Dakota Water Development District conducted a reconnaissance study to determine the occurrence of organic wastewater compounds (OWCs) in wastewater effluent and the Big Sioux River at or near the cities of Watertown, Volga, and Brookings in the upper Big Sioux River Basin during August 2003 through June 2004. For each city, samples were collected from the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent and from Big Sioux River sites upstream and downstream from where the wastewater effluent discharges to the Big Sioux River. For Watertown and Brookings, samples were collected during a low-flow period (August 2003) and a runoff period (June 2004). For Volga, samples were collected during two low-flow periods (August 2003 and October 2003) and a runoff period (June 2004). A total of 125 different OWCs were analyzed for and were classified into six compound classes-human pharmaceutical compounds (HPCs), human and veterinary antibiotic compounds (HVACs), major agricultural herbicides (MAHs), household, industrial, and minor agricultural compounds (HIACs), polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and sterol compounds (SCs). Of the 125 different OWCs, 45 had acceptable analytical method performance, were detected at concentrations greater than the study reporting levels, and were included in analyses and discussion related to occurrence of OWCs in wastewater effluents and the Big Sioux River. OWCs in all six compound classes were detected in water samples from sampling sites in the Watertown area. The Watertown WWTP discharged continuously to the Big Sioux River during both the low-flow August 2003 and runoff June 2004 sampling periods. Total OWC concentrations for Big Sioux River sites upstream from the Watertown WWTP discharge generally were small, less than 6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for both sampling periods. SCs accounted for nearly all of the total OWC concentrations for upstream Big Sioux River sites for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, and MAHs accounted for nearly all of the total OWC concentrations for the runoff June 2004 sampling period. Total OWC concentrations for samples collected from the Watertown wastewater effluent were relatively large for both sampling periods (estimated concentrations ranged from 20 to 41 µg/L), and primarily consisted of HIACs, SCs, and HVACs. Total OWC concentrations for Big Sioux River sites downstream from the Watertown WWTP discharge were relatively large for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period (estimated concentrations ranged from 6.9 to 19 µg/L) and smaller for the runoff June 2004 sampling period (estimated concentrations ranged from 3.3 to 6.5 µg/L), a pattern that probably reflects a greater fraction of the total flow of the Big Sioux River being derived from WWTP discharge during the low-flow sampling period. Major OWC classes contributing to total OWC concentrations for Big Sioux River sites downstream from the Watertown WWTP were HIACs, SCs, and HVACs. Total OWC concentrations decreased substantially between the two downstream Big Sioux River sites. Although confident conclusions could not be made primarily due to possible effects of non-Lagrangian sampling, OWC results for the Watertown area might indicate that (1) OWCs for upstream Big Sioux River sites probably were primarily contributed by nonpoint agricultural sources, with livestock agriculture accounting for most of the total OWC concentration for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, and crop agriculture accounting for most of the total OWC concentration for the runoff June 2004 sampling period; (2) OWCs for downstream Big Sioux River sites were substantially influenced by contributions from the Watertown WWTP during both the low-flow and runoff sampling periods; and (3) contributions of OWCs that might be derived from nonpoint livestock agricultural sources increased in proportion for the most downstream site for both the low-flow and runoff sampling periods. Suspected endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) were detected in all Big Sioux River samples in the Watertown area. For both the low-flow and runoff sampling periods, the numbers of EDCs detected, and EDC concentrations and loads generally were larger for downstream Big Sioux River sites than for upstream Big Sioux River sites. Combined EDC concentrations for downstream Big Sioux River sites consisted mostly of HIACs for the low-flow sampling period and both HIACs and MAHs for the runoff sampling period. OWCs in all compound classes except PAHs were detected in samples from sites in the Volga area. The Volga WWTP was not discharging to the Big Sioux River during the low-flow August 2003 and runoff June 2004 sampling periods, but was discharging continuously to the Big Sioux River during the low-flow October 2003 sampling period. For the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, the upstream Big Sioux River site had larger total OWC concentrations and loads than downstream Big Sioux River sites, and SCs accounted for most of the total OWC concentration for all Big Sioux River sites. For the low-flow October 2003 sampling period, when the Volga WWTP was discharging to the Big Sioux River, total OWC concentrations and loads were larger for the downstream Big Sioux River site than for the upstream site, and the increase in load corresponded well with the load contributed by the Volga wastewater effluent discharge, especially for HIACs. HIACs and SCs accounted for most of the total OWC concentrations for Big Sioux River sites for the October 2003 sampling period. For the June 2004 runoff sampling period, the upstream Big Sioux River site had smaller total OWC concentrations and loads than downstream Big Sioux River sites, and MAHs accounted for most of the total OWC concentrations for all Big Sioux River sites. Although confident conclusions could not be made due to possible effects of non-Lagrangian sampling, the data might indicate that (1) for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, nonpoint livestock agricultural and/or human wastewater sources might have been the primary contributors to occurrence of OWCs at Big Sioux River sampling sites; (2) for the low-flow October 2003 sampling period, nonpoint livestock sources and upstream human wastewater sources primarily contributed to occurrence of OWCs at Big Sioux River sampling sites; (3) for the runoff June 2004 sampling period, nonpoint crop agricultural sources primarily contributed to occurrence of OWCs at Big Sioux River sampling sites; (4) for the low-flow August 2003 and runoff June 2004 sampling periods, seepage of water from the Volga WWTP had little effect on downstream OWC concentrations; and (5) for the low-flow October 2003 sampling period, the Volga wastewater effluent discharge contributed to downstream OWC concentrations. EDCs were detected in all samples collected from sampling sites in the Volga area. For all sampling periods, total EDC concentrations generally were similar between upstream and downstream Big Sioux River sites and consisted of HIACs and MAHs. HIACs accounted for most of the total EDC concentrations for the low-flow August 2003 and October 2003 sampling periods, and MAHs accounted for most of the total EDC concentrations for the runoff June 2004 sampling period for all Big Sioux River sites. OWCs in all compound classes except PAHs were detected in water samples from sampling sites in the Brookings area. The Brookings WWTP discharged continuously to the Big Sioux River during all sampling periods. For the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, the upstream site had slightly smaller total OWC concentrations and loads compared to the downstream Big Sioux River sites. SCs and HIACs accounted for most of the total OWC concentration in all Big Sioux River sampling sites, but the proportion of SCs increased at the most downstream site. For the runoff June 2004 sampling period, the upstream site generally had smaller total OWC concentrations and loads than downstream Big Sioux River sites. MAHs accounted for most of the total OWC concentration for all Big Sioux River sites, but the proportion of SCs increased at the most downstream site. Although confident conclusions could not be made due to possible effects of non-Lagrangian sampling, the data might indicate that (1) for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, nonpoint livestock agricultural sources probably primarily contributed to occurrence of OWCs at all Big Sioux River sampling sites, and the Brookings WWTP wastewater effluent discharge contributed but did not have a substantial effect on concentrations at downstream sites; and (2) for the runoff June 2004 sampling period, nonpoint crop agricultural sources primarily contributed to occurrence of OWCs at all Big Sioux River sites, contributions of OWCs that might be derived from nonpoint livestock agricultural sources increased in proportion to other sources for the most downstream site, and the Brookings WWTP wastewater effluent discharge probably did not substantially contribute to total OWC concentrations at downstream sampling sites. EDCs were detected in all samples collected from sampling sites in the Brookings area. Total EDC concentrations for the upstream site consisted entirely of MAHs. Total EDC concentrations for downstream sites consisted of MAHs and HIACs. HIACs accounted for most of the total EDC concentrations for the low-flow August 2003 sampling period, and MAHs accounted for most of the total EDC concentrations for the runoff June 2004 sampling period for downstream Big Sioux River sites. The city of Watertown is located near the upstream part of the Big Sioux River Basin, where the mean annual flow of the Big Sioux River is less than 100 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Watertown WWTP discharges can account for a substantial part of the flow in the Big Sioux River, especially during low-flow periods. Effects of the Watertown WWTP wastewater effluent discharges on the occurrence of OWCs in the Big Sioux River downstream were apparent during both the low-flow and runoff sampling periods. For Volga and Brookings, which are farther downstream and where the mean annual flow of the Big Sioux River exceeds 400 ft 3 /s, wastewater effluent discharges from the Volga and Brookings WWTPs probably influenced the occurrence of OWCs in the Big Sioux River, but probably did not substantially contribute to total OWC concentrations, especially during the runoff sampling period.
Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.
Seven nested headwater catchments (8 to 161 ha) were monitored during five summer rain events to evaluate storm runoff components and the effect of catchment size on water sources. Two-component isotopic hydrograph separation showed that event-water contributions near the time of peakflow ranged from 49% to 62% in the 7 catchments during the highest intensity event. The proportion of event water in stormflow was greater than could be accounted for by direct precipitation onto saturated areas. DOC concentrations in stormflow were strongly correlated with stream 18O composition. Bivariate mixing diagrams indicated that the large event water contributions were likely derived from flow through the soil O-horizon. Results from two-tracer, three-component hydrograph separations showed that the throughfall and O-horizon soil-water components together could account for the estimated contributions of event water to stormflow. End-member mixing analysis confirmed these results. Estimated event-water contributions were inversely related to catchment size, but the relation was significant for only the event with greatest rainfall intensity. Our results suggest that perched, shallow subsurface flow provides a substantial contribution to summer stormflow in these small catchments, but the relative contribution of this component decreases with catchment size.Seven nested headwater catchments (8 to 161 ha) were monitored during five summer rain events to evaluate storm runoff components and the effect of catchment size on water sources. Two-component isotopic hydrograph separation showed that event-water contributions near the time of peakflow ranged from 49% to 62% in the 7 catchments during the highest intensity event. The proportion of event water in stormflow was greater than could be accounted for by direct precipitation onto saturated areas. DOC concentrations in stormflow were strongly correlated with stream 18O composition. Bivariate mixing diagrams indicated that the large event water contributions were likely derived from flow through the soil O-horizon. Results from two-tracer, three-component hydrograph separations showed that the throughfall and O-horizon soil-water components together could account for the estimated contributions of event water to stormflow. End-member mixing analysis confirmed these results. Estimated event-water contributions were inversely related to catchment size, but the relation was significant for only the event with greatest rainfall intensity. Our results suggest that perched, shallow subsurface flow provides a substantial contribution to summer stormflow in these small catchments, but the relative contribution of this component decreases with catchment size.
This report serves as metadata and a user guide for five out of six hydrologic and landscape databases developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, to describe data-collection, data-reduction, and data-analysis methods used to construct the databases and provides statistical and graphical descriptions of the databases. Six hydrologic and landscape databases were developed: (1) the Cache River and White River National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) and contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, (2) the Cahaba River NWR and contributing watersheds in Alabama, (3) the Caloosahatchee and J.N. “Ding” Darling NWRs and contributing watersheds in Florida, (4) the Clarks River NWR and contributing watersheds in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi, (5) the Lower Suwannee NWR and contributing watersheds in Georgia and Florida, and (6) the Okefenokee NWR and contributing watersheds in Georgia and Florida. Each database is composed of a set of ASCII files, Microsoft Access files, and Microsoft Excel files. The databases were developed as an assessment and evaluation tool for use in examining NWR-specific hydrologic patterns and trends as related to water availability and water quality for NWR ecosystems, habitats, and target species. The databases include hydrologic time-series data, summary statistics on landscape and hydrologic time-series data, and hydroecological metrics that can be used to assess NWR hydrologic conditions and the availability of aquatic and riparian habitat. Landscape data that describe the NWR physiographic setting and the locations of hydrologic data-collection stations were compiled and mapped. Categories of landscape data include land cover, soil hydrologic characteristics, physiographic features, geographic and hydrographic boundaries, hydrographic features, and regional runoff estimates. The geographic extent of each database covers an area within which human activities, climatic variation, and hydrologic processes can potentially affect the hydrologic regime of the NWRs and adjacent areas. The hydrologic and landscape database for the Cache and White River NWRs and contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma has been described and documented in detail (Buell and others, 2012). This report serves as a companion to the Buell and others (2012) report to describe and document the five subsequent hydrologic and landscape databases that were developed: Chapter A—the Cahaba River NWR and contributing watersheds in Alabama, Chapter B—the Caloosahatchee and J.N. “Ding” Darling NWRs and contributing watersheds in Florida, Chapter C—the Clarks River NWR and contributing watersheds in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi, Chapter D—the Lower Suwannee NWR and contributing watersheds in Georgia and Florida, and Chapter E—the Okefenokee NWR and contributing watersheds in Georgia and Florida.
A regional, two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow system and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Menominee Indian Reservation. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, to contribute to the fundamental understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system, including groundwater/surface-water interactions, and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional groundwater-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate groundwater-flow patterns at multiple scales. Simulations made with the regional model reproduce groundwater levels and stream base flows representative of recent conditions (1970–2013) and illustrate groundwater-flow patterns with maps of (1) the simulated water table and groundwater-flow directions, (2) probabilistic areas contributing recharge to high-capacity pumped wells, and (3) estimation of the extent of infiltrated wastewater from treatment lagoons. The groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including surficial unconsolidated aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from existing high-capacity production wells. Areas contributing recharge to pumped high-capacity wells on the Menominee Indian Reservation were delineated by tracking simulated water particles from the water table to wells in combination with Monte Carlo techniques, and maps of the probability of capture for each well nest were produced. Groundwater-agebased areas contributing recharge to wells were simulated by using the calibrated set of parameters and porosity values adjusted to account for bias in simulated saturated thickness. Simulations were performed for current (2013) pumping rates. The simulations show a range in sensitivity of the simulated areas contributing recharge to wells given the parameters evaluated through the Monte Carlo analysis. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for the villages of Zoar and Neopit are long and narrow, with a sharp gradation from high to low probability of capture. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for Middle Village and the village of Keshena exhibit a sharp gradation from high to low probability over a relatively small area between the well and a local groundwater mound. The highest probability areas contributing recharge to the supply wells for the Villages of Onekewat and Redwing are in the immediate vicinity of the wells. These wells also have an extensive area with low probability for capturing water that is likely due to a locally low hydraulic gradient and the large degree of uncertainty associated with the lakebed resistance parameters that control interaction between groundwater and local lakes. Additional field investigations and associated local model refinements would facilitate further reductions in uncertainty associated with simulated areas contributing recharge to the wells. The likely extent of the Neopit wastewater plume was simulated by using the groundwater-flow model and Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the sensitivity of predictive simulations to a range of model parameter values. Wastewater infiltrated from the currently operating lagoons flows predominantly south toward Tourtillotte Creek. Some of the infiltrated wastewater is simulated as having a low probability of flowing beneath Tourtillotte Creek to the nearby West Branch Wolf River. Results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are considered to be qualitative because the method only considers advective flow and does not account for processes affecting contaminant transport in porous media. Therefore, results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are sensitive to the number of particles used to represent flow from the lagoon and the resolution of a synthetic grid used for the analysis. Nonetheless, it is expected that the qualitative results may be of use for identifying potential downgradient areas of concern that can then be evaluated using the quantitative “area contributing recharge to wells” method or traditional contaminant-transport simulations.
Anadromous northern Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma support a summer subsistence fishery in Beaufort Sea coastal waters. These same waters coincide with areas of oil and gas exploration and development. The purpose of this study was to assess variation in stock origins of Dolly Varden collected from sites along 400 km of Beaufort Sea coast. Mixed‐stock analyses (MSA) of allozyme data were used to compare collections from four sites (Endicott near Prudhoe Bay, Mikkelsen Bay, and Kaktovik in Alaska and Phillips Bay in Canada) and to assess variation in stock contributions among summer months and between 1987 and 1988. The MSA estimates for individual stocks were summed into estimates for three stock groups: western stocks from the area near Sagavarnirktok River and Prudhoe Bay (SAG), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge stocks (Arctic Refuge), and Canadian stocks. The MSA of Endicott samples taken in 1987 and 1988 did not differ among months in terms of contributions from local SAG stocks (range, 71–95%). Contributions from nonlocal (>100 km distant) Canadian and Arctic Refuge stocks were not different from zero in 1987, but contributions from Canadian stocks were so in July (17%) and August (20%) but not in September of 1988. Thus, stock contributions to Endicott collections were different between 1987 and 1988. Samples from the Kaktovik area in 1988 were different between months in terms of contributions from nonlocal SAG stocks (July, 7%; August, 27%). Significant contributions to these samples were made both months by Canadian (25% and 17%) and local Arctic Refuge stocks (68% and 56%). Among the four coastal sites, local stocks typically contributed most to collections; however, every site had collections that contained significant contributions from nonlocal stocks. The MSA estimates clearly revealed the movement of Dolly Varden between U.S. and Canada coastal waters. If local stocks are affected by oil and gas development activities, distant subsistence fisheries along the coast could also be affected.
Hydrograph separation was used to determine the base-flow component of streamflow for 148 sites sampled as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment program. Sites in the Southwest and the Northwest tend to have base-flow index values greater than 0.5. Sites in the Midwest and the eastern portion of the Southern Plains generally have values less than 0.5. Base-flow index values for sites in the Southeast and Northeast are mixed with values less than and greater than 0.5. Hypothesized flow paths based on relative scaling of soil and bedrock permeability explain some of the differences found in base-flow index. Sites in areas with impermeable soils and bedrock (areas where overland flow may be the primary hydrologic flow path) tend to have lower base-flow index values than sites in areas with either permeable bedrock or permeable soils (areas where deep groundwater flow paths or shallow groundwater flow paths may occur). The percentage of nitrate load contributed by base flow was determined using total flow and base flow nitrate load models. These regression-based models were calibrated using available nitrate samples and total streamflow or base-flow nitrate samples and the base-flow component of total streamflow. Many streams in the country have a large proportion of nitrate load contributed by base flow: 40 percent of sites have more than 50 percent of the total nitrate load contributed by base flow. Sites in the Midwest and eastern portion of the Southern Plains generally have less than 50 percent of the total nitrate load contributed by base flow. Sites in the Northern Plains and Northwest have nitrate load ratios that generally are greater than 50 percent. Nitrate load ratios for sites in the Southeast and Northeast are mixed with values less than and greater than 50 percent. Significantly lower contributions of nitrate from base flow were found at sites in areas with impermeable soils and impermeable bedrock. These areas could be most responsive to nutrient management practices designed to reduce nutrient transport to streams by runoff. Conversely, sites with potential for shallow or deep groundwater contribution (some combination of permeable soils or permeable bedrock) had significantly greater contributions of nitrate from base flow. Effective nutrient management strategies would consider groundwater nitrate contributions in these areas. Mean annual base-flow nitrate concentrations were compared to shallow-groundwater nitrate concentrations for 27 sites. Concentrations in groundwater tended to be greater than base-flow concentrations for this group of sites. Sites where groundwater concentrations were much greater than base-flow concentrations were found in areas of high infiltration and oxic groundwater conditions. The lack of correspondingly high concentrations in the base flow of the paired surface-water sites may have multiple causes. In some settings, there has not been sufficient time for enough high-nitrate shallow groundwater to migrate to the nearby stream. In these cases, the stream nitrate concentrations lag behind those in the shallow groundwater, and concentrations may increase in the future as more high-nitrate groundwater reaches the stream. Alternatively, some of these sites may have processes that rapidly remove nitrate as water moves from the aquifer into the stream channel. Partitioning streamflow and nitrate load between the quick-flow and base-flow portions of the hydrograph coupled with relative scales of soil permeability can infer the importance of surface water compared to groundwater nitrate sources. Study of the relation of nitrate concentrations to base-flow index and the comparison of groundwater nitrate concentrations to stream nitrate concentrations during times when base-flow index is high can provide evidence of potential nitrate transport mechanisms. Accounting for the surface-water and groundwater contributions of nitrate is crucial to effective management and remediat
The shallow groundwater system in the Forest County Potawatomi Comminity, Forest County, Wisconsin, was simulated by expanding and recalibrating a previously calibrated regional model. The existing model was updated using newly collected water-level measurements, inclusion of surface-water features beyond the previous near-field boundary, and refinements to surface-water features. The updated model then was used to calculate the area contributing recharge for seven existing and three proposed pumping locations on lands of the Forest County Potawatomi Community. The existing wells were the subject of a 2004 source-water evaluation in which areas contributing recharge were calculated using the fixed-radius method. The motivation for the present (2012) project was to improve the level of detail of areas contributing recharge for the existing wells and to provide similar analysis for the proposed wells. Delineated 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge for existing and proposed wells extend from the areas of pumping to delineate the area at the surface contributing recharge to the wells. Steady-state pumping was simulated for two scenarios: a base-pumping scenario using pumping rates that reflect what the Community currently (2012) pumps (or plans to in the case of proposed wells), and a high-pumping scenario in which the rate was set to the maximum expected from wells installed in this area, according to the Forest County Potawatomi Community Natural Resources Department. In general, the 10-year areas contributing recharge did not intersect surface-water bodies. The 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge simulated at the maximum pumping rate at Bug Lake Road may intersect Bug Lake. At the casino near the Town of Carter, Wisconsin, the 10-year areas contributing recharge intersect infiltration ponds. At the Devils Lake and Lois Crow Drive wells, areas contributing recharge are near cultural features, including residences.