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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with the number of associated springs. Resilience was greater for SMZs on topographically shaded, north‐facing slopes. Several high‐resilience SMZs were located immediately below persistent snowbanks, suggesting a possible source of steady recharge throughout the growing season. The approach presented here—if combined with field assessments of spring hydrogeology, discharge, and groundwater age—could help identify spring‐fed wetlands that are most likely to serve as hydrologic refugia from climate change.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗
USGS2022

Models combining multiple scales of inference capture hydrologic and climatic drivers of riparian tree distributions

Predicting species geographic distributions is key to managing invasive species, conserving biodiversity, and understanding species' environmental requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) commonly focus on climatic predictors, but other environmental factors can also be essential, particularly for species with specialized habitats defined by hydrologic, topographic, or edaphic conditions (e.g., riparian, wetland, alpine, coastal, serpentine). Here, we demonstrate a novel approach for capturing strong effects of both hydrologic and climatic predictors in SDMs for riparian plants, by merging analyses targeted at environmental drivers within riparian ecosystems and across the western USA (3.8 × 10 6 km 2 ). We developed presence-background SDMs from five algorithms for three invasive riparian trees ( Tamarix ramossisima / chinensis [saltcedar], Elaeagnus angustifolia [Russian olive], and Ulmus pumila [Siberian elm]) and three native Populus spp. (cottonwoods). We used separate background datasets to develop models with different spatial scales of inference: (1) spatially filtered random points to represent available habitat across the study area and (2) target-group points from Salix (willow) occurrences to represent available riparian habitat. Random-background models captured hydrologic drivers of riparian tree distributions relative to the largely upland western USA, whereas Salix -background models captured climatic drivers within the context of riparian ecosystems. Combining predictions from the two backgrounds identified hydrologically suitable habitats within climatically suitable regions, resulting in fewer false “absences” than either background alone, improving predictions over previous SDMs, and providing more complete information to guide management decisions. Surprisingly, the predicted habitat for U. pumila , a newly recognized riparian invader, was as or more extensive than Populus deltoides / fremontii , T. ramossisima / chinensis , and E. angustifolia , the most common riparian tree complexes in the western USA. Watersheds constituting 20% of U. pumila predicted habitat contained no occurrence records, indicating high risk of future and unrecognized invasions. Combining models from random and ecosystem-specific target-group backgrounds may improve SDMs for species from many specialized habitats, providing a method to link predicted distributions to localized geographic features while capturing broad-scale climatic requirements.

western United States↗
USGS2017

The interacting roles of climate, soils, and plant production on soil microbial communities at a continental scale

Soil microbial communities control critical ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter formation. Continental scale patterns in the composition and functioning of microbial communities are related to climatic, biotic, and edaphic factors such as temperature and precipitation, plant community composition, and soil carbon, nitrogen, and pH. Although these relationships have been well explored individually, the examination of the factors that may act directly on microbial communities vs. those that may act indirectly through other ecosystem properties has not been well developed. To further such understanding, we utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate a set of hypotheses about the direct and indirect effects of climatic, biotic, and edaphic variables on microbial communities across the continental United States. The primary goals of this work were to test our current understanding of the interactions among climate, soils, and plants in affecting microbial community composition, and to examine whether variation in the composition of the microbial community affects potential rates of soil enzymatic activities. A model of interacting factors created through SEM shows several expected patterns. Distal factors such as climate had indirect effects on microbial communities by influencing plant productivity, soil mineralogy, and soil pH, but factors related to soil organic matter chemistry had the most direct influence on community composition. We observed that both plant productivity and soil mineral composition were important indirect influences on community composition at the continental scale, both interacting to affect organic matter content and microbial biomass and ultimately community composition. Although soil hydrolytic enzymes were related to the moisture regime and soil carbon, oxidative enzymes were also affected by community composition, reflected in the abundance of soil fungi. These results highlight that soil microbial communities can be modeled within the context of multiple interacting ecosystem properties acting both directly and indirectly on their composition and function, and this provides a rich and informative context with which to examine communities. This work also highlights that variation in climate, microbial biomass, and microbial community composition can affect maximum rates of soil enzyme activities, potentially influencing rates of decomposition and nutrient mineralization in soils.

Ecology↗
USGS2022

Fitness homeostasis across an experimental water gradient predicts species' geographic range and climatic breadth

Species range sizes and realized niche breadths vary tremendously. Understanding the source of this variation has been a long-term aim in evolutionary ecology and is a major tool in efforts to ameliorate the impacts of changing climates on species distributions. Species ranges that span a large climatic envelope can be achieved by a collection of specialized genotypes locally adapted to a small range of conditions, by genotypes with stable fitness across variable environments, or a combination of these factors. We asked whether fitness expressed along a key niche axis, water availability, could explain a species' realized niche breadth, its geographic range and climate breadth, in 11 species from a clade of jewelflowers whose range sizes vary by two orders of magnitude. Specifically, we explored whether the range size of a species was related to the ability of genotypes (maternal families) to maintain fitness across a range of experimental water availabilities based on 30-year historical field precipitation regimes. We operationally characterized fitness homeostasis through the coefficient of variation in fitness of a genotype (family) across the experimental water gradient. We found that species with genotypes that had high fitness homeostasis, low variation in fitness over our treatments, had larger climatic niche breadth and geographic range in their field distributions. The result was robust to alternate measures of fitness homeostasis. Our results show that the fitness homeostasis of genotypes can be a major factor contributing to niche breadth and range size in this clade. Fitness homeostasis can buffer species from loss of genetic diversity and under changing climates, provides time for adaptation to future conditions.

Ecology↗
USGS2013

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Introduction to a SETAC international workshop

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2020

Oases of the future? Evaluating springs as potential hydrologic refugia in drying climates

Springs in water-limited landscapes are biodiversity hotspots and keystone ecosystems, disproportionately influencing surrounding landscapes despite their often small areas. Some springs served as evolutionary refugia during previous climate drying, supporting relict species in isolated habitats. Understanding whether springs will provide hydrologic refugia from future climate change is important to biodiversity conservation but complicated by hydrologic variability among springs, data limitations, and multiple non-climate threats to groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we present a conceptual framework for categorizing springs as potentially stable, relative, or transient hydrologic refugia in a drying climate. Clues about refugial capacity of springs can be assembled from diverse approaches, including citizen-science-powered ecohydrologic monitoring, remote sensing, landowner interviews, and environmental tracer analysis. Managers can integrate multiple lines of evidence to predict which springs may become future refugia for species of concern, strengthening the long-term effectiveness of springs conservation and restoration and informing climate adaptation for terrestrial and freshwater species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2020

Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions

Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and precipitation, or by mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes. However, the function of those hypothesized refugia must be validated (or challenged) with independent data not used in the initial identification of the refugia. Although doing so would facilitate the incorporation of climate‐change refugia into conservation and management decision making, a synthesis of validation methods is currently lacking. We reviewed the literature and defined four methods to test refugia predictions. We propose that such bottom‐up approaches can lead to improved protected‐area designations and on‐the‐ground management actions to reduce influences from non‐climate stressors within potential refugia.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2024

Disease-smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well-documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate-change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease-smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2025

Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks

In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events, and drought exposure are all projected to increase within seven regions delineated in the US National Climate Assessment. In particular, the anticipated collective impacts of droughts and flooding events will lead to unique management challenges, including combinations of management actions that may seem inconsistent. Furthermore, uncertainty in the magnitude of change varied by region and climate variable considered, pointing to specific opportunities for prioritization, transferability, and innovation of climate adaptation regionally and at the park-unit scale.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2021

How does climate change affect emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems?

Emergent properties of ecosystems are community attributes, such as structure and function, that arise from connections and interactions (e.g., predator–prey, competition) among populations, species, or assemblages that, when viewed together, provide a holistic representation that is more than the sum of its individual parts. Climate change is altering emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems through component responses, a combination of shifts in species range, phenology, distribution, and productivity, which lead to novel ecosystems that have no historical analog. The reshuffling, restructuring, and rewiring of aquatic ecosystems due to climate impacts are of high concern for natural resource management and conservation as these changes can lead to species extinctions and reductions in ecosystem services. Overall, we found that substantial progress has been made to advance our understanding of how climate change is affecting emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems. However, responses are incredibly complex, and high uncertainty remains for how systems will reorganize and function over the coming decades. This cross‐system perspective summarizes the state of knowledge of climate‐driven emergent properties in aquatic habitats with case studies that highlight mechanisms of change, observed or anticipated outcomes, as well as insights into confounding non‐climate effects, research tools, and management approaches to advance the field.

Fisheries↗
USGS2019

Effects of climate-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes in a small forested watershed in the Southeastern United States

Streamwater quality can be affected by climate-related variability in hydrologic state, which controls flow paths and affects biogeochemical processes. Thirty-one years of input/output solute fluxes at Panola Mountain Research Watershed, a small, forested, seasonally water-limited watershed near Atlanta, Georgia, were used to quantify the effects of climatic-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes. Streamwater fluxes were estimated for ten solutes from weekly and event sample concentrations using regression-based methods. The most pertinent storage attribute (current or antecedent watershed, shallow, and deep storage) for each solute was determined by fitting separate concentration relationships. The concentration-discharge relationships varied more for reactive solutes such as potassium, sulfate, and DOC and less for weathering products (base cations and dissolved silica) and conservative chloride. Many solutes exhibited higher concentrations when storage levels were lower or wetting up, which was likely the result of the concentrating effects of evapotranspiration and/or the buildup and flushing of weathering products associated with longer residence times. The impacts of storage modeling on annual fluxes varied by solute, ranging from about 5% (magnesium) to 52% (nitrate) as relative standard deviations, and sufficiently removed climate-related patterns observed in streamwater concentrations. Sulfate was particularly mobilized following growing season droughts but only if deep storage was sufficiently recharged, possibly indicating that sulfides in the deep storage pool were oxidized to sulfate during droughts and mobilized when re-wetted. The lack of streamwater sulfate response to 61% declines in atmospheric deposition indicates the importance of watershed biogeochemical processes on controls of streamwater export of sulfate. The approach of explicitly incorporating storage in the streamwater concentration modeling elucidated the effects of climate on streamwater water-quality and may provide insight into the effects of climatic change on future fluxes.

Georgia↗
USGS2008

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream-flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R2 = 0.32 and 0.29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200-1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800-2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150-2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600-4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2023

Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development

Soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation have important implications for oil and gas reclamation success on drylands. It is uncertain if reclaimed well pads, on highly degraded drylands, can successfully regain ecological function or meet indicator benchmarks for reclamation. Here, our goals were to assess patterns in reclamation outcomes relative to (1) soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation; and (2) plant and soil reference benchmarks. We collected a suite of plant, soil, and landscape characteristics from 134 reclaimed well pads on the Colorado Plateau that spanned climate and soil gradients and ranged from 2 to 20 years post-reclamation, then compared characteristics to those from 583 reference plots. On the reclaimed pads, less saline soils, more mesic climates, and longer time since reclamation were associated with favorable reclamation outcomes based on metrics of plant species richness and diversity, plant structure, and cover of important plant functional groups. However, most pads had major departures in 1/4 indicators, suggesting unsuccessful reclamation. Arid warm locations with shallow soils had the greatest percentage of major departures, and noxious plant richness had the greatest departures across soil and climate settings. Our assessment indicates reclamation is failing in key metrics for most pads, and the results highlight the role of environmental conditions in driving reclamation outcomes. These new insights are valuable for ascertaining possible reclamation outcomes and success rates following energy related disturbance, including orphaned wells and renewable energy development. Importantly, the approach used here has applicability for setting benchmarks and outcome standards.

Land Degradation and Development↗
USGS2019

Using a mechanistic model to develop management strategies to cool Apache Trout streams under the threat of climate change

User‐friendly stream temperature models populated with on‐site data may help in developing strategies to manage temperatures of individual stream reaches that are subject to climate change. We used the field‐tested Stream Segment Temperature model (U.S. Geological Survey) to simulate how altering discharge, groundwater input, channel wetted width, and shade prevents the temperatures of White Mountain, Arizona, stream reaches from exceeding the thermal tolerance of Apache Trout Oncorhynchus apache , both under existing conditions and under a climate change scenario. Simulations suggested increasing shade, either through streamside planting of specific numbers and species of plants or by other means, would be most effective and feasible for cooling the stream reaches we studied. Ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa and Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii provided the most shade followed in order by Engelman spruce Picea engelmannii , Bebb's willow Salix bebbiana , Arizona alder Alnus oblongifolia , and finally coyote willow Salix exigua . Vegetation survival depends on the appropriateness of site conditions at present and under climate change, and planting in buffer strips minimizes additional water removal from the watershed through evapotranspiration. Alternative shading options, including thick sedge growth, shade cloth, or felled woody vegetation, may be considered when environmental conditions do not support plantings. Increasing groundwater input can cool streams, but additional sources are scarce in the region. Decreasing the width‐to‐depth ratio would succeed best on reaches with widths greater than 2.0 m. Increasing discharge from upstream may lower water temperature on reaches with an initial discharge greater than 0.5 m 3 /s. Existing models provide suggestions to cool stream reaches. Further development of accessible software packages that incorporate evaporation, fragmentation, and other projected climate change effects into their routines will provide additional tools to help manage climate change effects.

Arizona↗
USGS2006

Analysis of the surface hydrology in a regional climate model

This paper discusses the surface hydrology of a multi‐year simulation of present day climate over the United States (US) conducted with a regional climate model (RegCM) nested within a general circulation model (GCM). The RegCM, which is run with a 60 km gridpoint spacing is interactively coupled with a state‐of‐the‐art surface physics package that includes full surface hydrology calculations (the Biosphere‐Atmosphere Transfer Scheme or BATS). The hydrologic budgets of ten regional drainage basins in the US are analysed. Model results are compared with available observations and with results from previous modelling experiments to evaluate the feasibility of using nested RegCM/GCM models for hydrology studies. In our experiment, the model captures the basic seasonality of the basin hydrologic budgets, although the simulated precipitation amounts are too high over the western US and too low over the eastern US. As a result, runoff, snow cover and soil water content are underestimated over the eastern US basins, while evaporation and runoff are overestimated in some of the western US basins. Topographically induced characteristics of precipitation, snow cover and runoff are well simulated over the mountainous western regions. Also well captured is the inter‐basin variation of hydrologic budgets which occurs in response to different climatic settings. The springtime snowmelt and peak runoff season generally occurs in the model earlier in the year than is observed. Although our work indicates that the coupled regional modelling system can be useful in applications to hydrological studies, results from this experiment indicate that better accuracy in the simulation of regional climatic variables and more detailed representation of some hydrologic processes would be required before the coupled modelling system could be used to provide accurate assessments of hydrologic responses to climate change.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Soci↗
USGS2015

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the USA

There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero-flow behavior, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity), and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero-flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

River Research and Applications↗