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Water resources of Mellette and Todd counties, South Dakota

Mellette and Todd Counties are located in south-central South Dakota and have a combined area of 2,694 square miles. The White River and its tributaries, which include the Little White River, drain Mellette County and about one-half of Todd County. Tributaries to the Niobrara River, which include the Keya Paha River, drain the other one-half of Todd County. The average discharge of the Little White River is about 56 cubic feet per second as the river enters Todd County and is about 131 cubic feet per second as it discharges to the White River in northern Mellette County. The average discharge of the Keya Paha River just outside Todd County is about 39 cubic feet per second. The average annual runoff for Mellette and Todd Counties ranges from 0.94 to 2.36 inches based on records from nine streamflow-gaging stations in and near the counties. The average annual runoff is 1.62 inches, which compares with the average annual precipitation of about 19 inches. In Todd County, shallow wells completed in the alluvial, Ogallala, Arikaree, and White River aquifers generally can supply water that has low concentrations of dissolved solids, is fresh, and is soft to moderately hard. Ground water from shallow aquifers is limited in Mellette County; therefore, deep wells, often greater than 1,000 feet, are sometimes installed. The Pierre Shale often is used to supply rural domestic and stock wells in Mellette County even though well yields are low and the water has high dissolved solids, is moderately saline, and is very hard. Alluvial aquifers are present in both counties and store an estimated 1.6 million acre-feet of water. The water quality of the alluvial aquifers is dependent on the underlying deposits, and generally the water has low concentrations of dissolved solids, is fresh, and is soft to moderately hard where underlain by the Ogallala and Arikaree Formations; has moderate concentrations of dissolved solids, is slightly saline, and is hard where underlain by the White River Group; and has high concentrations of dissolved solids, is saline, and is very hard where underlain by the Pierre Shale. Also, yields often are lower where the alluvial aquifers are underlain by the Pierre Shale. The Ogallala aquifer is present in only Todd County, and the Arikaree aquifer is present throughout most of Todd County and southwestern and south-central Mellette County. The Ogallala aquifer contains an estimated 17 million acre-feet of water in storage, and the Arikaree aquifer contains an estimated 50 million acre-feet of water in storage. Both aquifers generally are suitable for irrigation, and yields from these aquifers are sometimes greater than 1,000 gallons per minute. Nitrate concentrations in 13 out of 92 water samples collected from the Ogallala aquifer exceeded the Primary Drinking Water Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 milligrams per liter. In 11 out of 46 samples collected from the Arikaree aquifer, arsenic concentrations exceeded the MCL of 50 micrograms per liter. The White River aquifer, where present, is usually the shallowest source of ground water in Mellette County. The White River aquifer also is used in northern Todd County where the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are not present. The White River aquifer contains an estimated 50 million acre-feet of water in storage. Reported yields from the aquifer range from 1 to 30 gallons per minute, which generally is insufficient to support irrigation in most areas. However, yields are sufficient for livestock-watering and rural-domestic purposes. In both counties, the Pierre Shale is the shallowest bedrock aquifer and is exposed at the land surface throughout most of Mellette County. This aquifer is used primarily in Mellette County. Although the aquifer contains an estimated maximum of 1.5 million acre-feet of water in storage, it is not a viable source of ground water because the aquifer is relatively impermeable, yields are low, and water usually can be obtained from shallower sources, especially in Todd County. Reported yields from the Pierre Shale aquifer range from 1 to 8 gallons per minute. Because few test holes and wells penetrate below the Pierre Shale, little is known about the extent of the deeper bedrock aquifers. All wells completed in the Dakota Sandstone, Inyan Kara, and Minnelusa and Madison aquifers in the counties are used for stock-watering purposes. High concentrations of dissolved solids and hard water are characteristic of the water quality in the bedrock aquifers. Depths to the top of the deeper bedrock aquifers range from 1,270 feet to greater than 2,000 feet below land surface.

South Dakota

Computing flow-field distortion coefficients from well-construction and formation properties

Direct measurements of groundwater velocity made with borehole flowmeters in screened wells must be compensated for the effects of flow-field distortion (also known as borehole acceleration). A theoretical equation developed by Drost et al. (1968) and simple inputs describing hydraulic properties of well construction and geologic formation were programmed into an Excel workbook to facilitate computation by groundwater-flowmeter users. Tables describing the physical and hydraulic properties for well constructions and gravel pack media are provided with an example to facilitate use of the workbook. Groundwater flowlines converge or diverge as they pass from a geologic formation, through a gravel pack and well screen. The extent of flowline convergence or divergence and the value of the flow-field distortion coefficient is related to the relative changes in hydraulic conductivity of the well screen, gravel pack, and geologic formation. Convergence or divergence is accompanied by acceleration or deceleration of groundwater. Direct measurements of groundwater velocity at the center of the monitoring well can be adjusted to provide a more accurate estimate of velocity in the formation by applying a correction for flow-field distortion. Variables required to compute the flow-field distortion coefficient include the hydraulic conductivity of the gravel pack, well screen, and the geologic formation surrounding the well screen; the borehole radius, and the inside radius and outside radius of the well screen.

Groundwater

Distributed volcanic fields—Patterns, products, processes, and plumbing

Distributed volcanic fields—also referred to as “monogenetic fields” or simply “volcanic fields”—are found on every continent, on the seafloors, and in every tectonic setting on Earth. Yet, our understanding of what constitutes a distributed volcanic field, and our knowledge of the common products, spatiotemporal patterns in activity, and plumbing systems of these fields, are commonly poor and (or) debated. Here we provide an overview of the current understanding of distributed volcanic fields (DVFs) through review and compilation of published data, with an emphasis on understanding the characteristics of fields that are essential to prepare for future hazardous volcanic activity. Distributed fields can erupt restricted to variable magma compositions. Activity in these fields produces nearly all types of volcanoes, including scoria and spatter cones, maars, low shields, lava fields, stratovolcanoes, and calderas, but monogenetic volcanoes are the defining characteristic of DVFs. The number of vents and lifespans of DVFs vary greatly; vent numbers range from 2 to greater than 1,000, and fields can remain active for 150,000 to 10 million years. Some characteristics of DVFs appear field dependent. Although the volumes of single monogenetic eruptions within DVFs globally are variable (from less than 0.1 to a few cubic kilometers), each field may have a characteristic range in eruption volumes. Eruptions within distributed volcanic fields can have a random distribution and timing, but spatial and (or) temporal vent clustering and alignment are common, and eruptions may be time or volume predictable. Average eruption recurrence intervals in DVFs span over an order of magnitude, from less than 3 to greater than 100 thousand years. Exposures of the shallow portions of older systems reveal that many magma batches end their ascent before reaching the surface, with some dikes stopping within only meters of the surface. Petrologic insights into the deeper plumbing systems of DVF volcanoes indicate variable depths of magma crystallization and (or) stalling, and that magma transport and storage systems may be unique to a particular DVF and its underlying crustal structure. Both seismic and petrologic data for mafic DVF eruptions corroborate intrusions of magma into storage systems in the months to years before eruption, as well as variable ascent rates through the crust (days to weeks). Few distributed fields are closely monitored, as they erupt infrequently, but these observations imply that the amount of time available to install monitoring instrumentation after the first felt seismicity may be short, as precursory activity is frequently on the order of days to months for modern DVF eruptions. Satellite-based geodesy may provide useful warning in such cases. This chapter concludes with outstanding questions and areas for future research that will aid in our understanding and preparedness for future DVF eruptions.

Professional Paper

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Timing of hydrothermal alteration and Au-Sb-W mineralization, Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, Idaho

The Stibnite-Yellow Pine district of central Idaho was mined from the early 1900s until the 1990s, extracting gold, antimony, tungsten, and mercury from veins and disseminated and replacement ores in mountainous terrain along the headwaters of the Salmon River. Mining during the two World Wars supplied critical antimony and tungsten to the war efforts. Recent exploration has delineated mineral resources of over 187 metric tons Au, 274 metric tons Ag, and 93,000 metric tons Sb. Mineralization is hosted in Cretaceous Idaho batholith granitic rocks and a sequence of Neoproterozoic to Paleozoic metasedimentary strata of carbonate and siliciclastic compositions. Historical studies outlined some of the complex paragenesis but debated the absolute age of mineralization. New petrographic and geochronologic work documents a sequence of five hydrothermal events in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district. Event 1 is related to Cretaceous magmatic and hydrothermal activity and includes events ranging in age from 86 to 75 Ma, including sparse quartz-molybdenite veins dated at 86 Ma. Disseminated gold mineralization of event 2 is associated with sericitic alteration and sulfidation of igneous biotite and replacement of plagioclase by potassium feldspar, largely in granodiorite. Gold is present in zoned arsenian pyrite in both disseminated ores and in crosscutting carbonate-quartz veins containing pyrite and arsenopyrite. The large Yellow Pine deposit, localized at a dilatant bend in the Meadow Creek fault, hosts such disseminated and vein gold. Event 2 is interpreted as the major gold-forming event; 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of sericite and potassium feldspar alteration range, respectively, from 70 to 59 and 66 to 56 Ma. The long span is interpreted to reflect the age of gold mineralization and local overprinting by event 3. A narrower range from 66 to 61 Ma is interpreted to date the peak of gold mineralization and alteration. Event 3, tungsten mineralization with scheelite, is texturally later than event 2 gold and localized along the Meadow Creek structure. Event 3 scheelite has been dated by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) U-Pb methods at 57 Ma. Event 4, best developed in the West End area, includes gold-silver–bearing quartz-carbonate-pyrite veins and breccias with epithermal textures and potassium feldspar alteration envelopes. Adularia from event 4 yields 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau ages of 52 to 51 Ma. Event 5 antimony and mercury mineralization consists of stibnite veins and breccia cements at the Yellow Pine and Hangar Flat deposits as well as cinnabar veins and replacements at the peripheral Fern and Hermes deposits; it is constrained by an LA-ICP-MS U-Pb date on scheelite (ca. 47 Ma) intergrown with stibnite. Minor propylitic and argillic alteration is evident in 47 Ma igneous dikes, which do not contain economic mineralization. The Au-Sb-W ores in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district formed over an extended time period from about 70 to 45 Ma in multiple pulses that were localized along the Meadow Creek fault zone. Each event corresponds to episodes of magmatism and/or hydrothermal activity in the region. Insignificant event 1 skarn and molybdenum mineralization is similar in age to the Thompson Creek porphyry molybdenum deposit in central Idaho. Event 2 gold mineralization occurred during a magmatic gap in central Idaho but was synchronous with magmatism in the Bitterroot lobe further north; event 2 is similar in age to orogenic gold-arsenic mineralization at the Beartrack mine in eastern Idaho. Event 3 scheelite mineralization coincides with tungsten mineralization at the Quartz Creek deposit, late magmatism in the Bitterroot lobe, and rapid exhumation of the Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith. Event 4 gold mineralization is coincident with the onset of regional Challis magmatism and extension. Event 5 antimony and mercury mineralization is time-equivalent to epithermal gold mineralization in the nearby Thunder Mountain volcanic field and the peak of Challis magmatism.

Idaho

Stepovers and beyond: Structural control of The Geysers geothermal system and the broader Clear Lake region

Fault geometry exerts a first-order control on geothermal systems by governing stress localization, fracture development, and permeability, yet in complex fault networks or broader shear zones, the relative influence of individual geometric features is often difficult to resolve. In the northern California Coast Ranges, The Geysers geothermal field is commonly interpreted to occur within a releasing stepover, although no single, clearly defined stepover is identified in published studies. To investigate the structural controls on The Geysers and the broader Clear Lake region, a two-dimensional elastic boundary element model is developed to evaluate spatial patterns of dilational strain associated with progressively more complete fault geometries. Model results show that dilation in the region is not controlled by a single structure but instead reflects the combined effects of multiple interacting fault elements. Three primary controls are identified: (1) opposing bends in the regional strike-slip fault system, including a releasing bend along the Maacama fault; (2) the southern fault tip of the Collayomi fault, which generates a prominent dilational lobe beneath the southern Geysers; and (3) a releasing stepover between the Collayomi fault and the Geyser Peak–Mercuryville–Big Sulphur Creek fault system, inferred to collectively behave as a right-lateral shear zone bounding the western margin of The Geysers. Predicted dilational strain magnitudes are sufficient to localize permeability between faults. These results highlight that incorporating complete fault networks and bedrock geological mapping can enhance geothermal assessments and provide a transferable framework for evaluating structurally controlled permeability in tectonically active regions.

California

Understanding market sensitivity: Estimation of supply and demand elasticities for non-fuel minerals

In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, understanding market responsiveness to price changes and the factors influencing commodity prices has become increasingly relevant. Price elasticities serve as indicators of how variations in market conditions affect supply and demand, providing insights into the sensitivity of commodity markets to price fluctuations. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of price elasticities of supply and demand for 74 non-fuel mineral commodities including precious metals, base metals, minor metals, and industrial minerals that are utilized across various industries. We employ various econometric techniques, including fixed effects models for panel data and two-stage dynamic ordinary least squares (2S-DOLS) alongside autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for time series analysis, to derive robust estimates of price elasticities. Our findings reveal variability in elasticities among different commodities and indicate that all studied mineral commodities exhibit price inelastic supply and demand in the short run, which we define as one year for the purposes of our analysis, given that the data is all annual. This research provides original estimates of price responsiveness for a wide range of commodities that have not been previously addressed in the literature, thereby enhancing the understanding of market dynamics in the mineral sector. Given that price elasticities can be influenced by factors such as market structure, technological advancements, mining costs, and industry-specific demand drivers, we use variables that serve as proxies for these factors.

Mineral Economics

Geochemistry and radiogenic isotopes constrain the mantle source region of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, California

The Mountain Pass carbonatite stock is the largest rare earth element (REE) deposit and only active REE mine in the United States. The carbonatite intrusion and spatially associated alkaline silicate intrusions constitute the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, which is located within the Mojave Province in California. Both the carbonatite and the alkaline silicate rocks are enriched in large ion lithophile elements and light REEs, and less enriched to depleted in high field strength elements, indicating the mantle source region was metasomatically enriched in incompatible trace elements. The cause of this metasomatic mantle enrichment and the genetic relationship between the carbonatite and the alkaline silicate stocks are poorly understood. In this study, major and trace element geochemical data and isotopic (Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and Lu-Hf) data are presented to constrain genesis of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, from mantle source region to the intrusion of the stocks. Our geochemical data are consistent with derivation of the alkaline silicate and carbonatite melts through partial melting from a shared mantle source region rather than through liquid immiscibility or fractional crystallization and separation of a carbothermal fluid. Although the Rb-Sr isotopic system in the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite is disturbed at the whole-rock scale, the isotopic systems for whole-rock Sm-Nd (εNd i = ‐2.2 ± 0.8) and zircon Lu-Hf (εHf i = 0.1 ± 1.1) are robust and support mantle derivation of the magmas. Geochemical modeling using experimentally derived partition coefficients was used to identify possible causes of enrichment in incompatible elements through metasomatism in the mantle source region. Modeling of metasomatism by melts derived by partial melting of deeply subducted carbonated sediments approximates observed Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite trace element chemistry. Scattered εHf i in inherited zircon (2.8 ± 2.6) is consistent with derivation from an arc-related environment with substantial crustal contamination. Paleotectonic studies in the Mojave Province indicate that regional subduction preceded emplacement of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite by ∼300 Ma. Melting of the Mountain Pass source region may have been caused by post-collisional thermal relaxation and extension.

California

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado

New 10Be-26Al isochron burial dating informs the Pliocene and Pleistocene evolution of the lower Colorado River, southwestern United States

Four new 10 Be- 26 Al isochron burial ages ranging from 4.4 to 2 Ma on ancestral Colorado River deposits in the lower Colorado River corridor (LCRC) help constrain the river’s evolution during the Pliocene and early Pleistocene. They help fill a gap between previous work that focused on older and younger deposits: Older dated deposits include the 5 Ma Bouse Formation, which records the integration of the Colorado River through a series of preexisting basins to the Gulf of California and the ca. 4.5 - 3.5 Ma Bullhead Alluvium, a 200 to 300 m thick aggregational package that immediately followed integration. The much younger, 100 - 70 ka, Chemehuevi Formation is another major aggradation package mapped throughout the LCRC. The new burial ages on the facies of Santa Fe Railway (4.37 ± 0.71 Ma), boulder conglomerate of Bat Cave Wash (2.12 ± 0.26 and 2.05 ± 0.31 Ma), and the Palo Verde alluvium (3.03 ± 0.26 Ma) partially fill in a 3.5 M.y. gap between the deposition of the Bullhead Alluvium and the Chemeheuvi Formation and document the timescales over which the Colorado River was able to remove the Bullhead aggradational package and initiate newer and smaller aggradational pulses.

Arizona, California, Nevada

Evidence of mineral alteration in a salt marsh subterranean estuary: Implications for carbon and trace element cycling

Subterranean estuaries (STE) in salt marshes are biogeochemically active zones where interactions between terrestrial groundwater and seawater drive complex cycling of carbon and trace elements, influenced by mineral dissolution. These systems, characterized by fine-grained organic-rich peat overlying permeable coastal aquifers, play a crucial role as a blue carbon sink, yet their geochemical dynamics remain poorly understood. We investigated dissolved trace elements, carbon, silica, and radium isotopes in a salt marsh STE (Sage Lot Pond, Waquoit Bay, MA) over seasonal and annual cycles. Our results reveal that groundwater and estuarine water circulation through marsh peat and aquifer sediments leads to enrichments of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC), Si, Ba, and Mn, with variable source/sink behavior of Fe and net removal of U. Submarine groundwater discharge dominated Ba fluxes, whereas pore water drainage from marsh peat acted as the main sink for U and source of Si. Fe cycling was variable, with terrestrial Fe largely removed as groundwater passed through the STE, consistent with Fe-sulfide and amorphous phase formation. Radium isotope ratios identified two distinct subsurface flow pathways, influenced by metal-oxide cycling and organic matter breakdown. Si production was decoupled from DIC, suggesting Si originates from mineral alteration, whereas DIC results from both mineral weathering and microbial respiration. Silicate mineral alteration, coupled with marsh pore water drainage, accounts for up to 16% of annual DIC exports (66 g C m −2 y −1 ), highlighting the importance of STEs in coastal carbon and trace element cycling, especially as marshes face environmental change.

Massachusetts

Summary of results from electromagnetic and galvanic soundings on Kilauea Iki lava lake, Hawaii

The purpose of this report is to summarize various electrical sounding studies made on the Kilauea Iki lava lake and to present some of the preliminary interpretations that resulted from the measurements. The following discussion is not intended as a complete interpretation, but is intended to summarize the major points made in an invited oral presentation at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting held in San Francisco, Calif. on December 6, 1976. This paper was part of a group of papers dealing with various geophysical studies recently made on the Kilauea Iki lava lake. A general plan map of Kilauea Iki lava lake is shown in figure 1. Electromagnetic (EM) loop-loop soundings, D.C. resistivity soundings, and VLF apparent resistivity measurements were made on the lave lake surface. All of these surveys were made to determine the geoelectric structure of the lava lake and to determine parameters of the molten basaltic lens that exist in the partially solidified lava lake.

Hawaii

Concentrations and distribution of manmade organic compounds in the Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada and California, 1997-99

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency and the Lahontan Regional Water-Quality Control Board, sampled Lake Tahoe, major tributary streams to Lake Tahoe, and several other lakes in the Lake Tahoe Basin for manmade organic compounds during 1997-99. Gasoline components were found in all samples collected from Lake Tahoe during the summer boating season. Methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) were the commonly detected compounds in these samples. Most samples from tributary streams and lakes with no motorized boating had no detectable concentrations of gasoline components. Motorized boating activity appears to be directly linked in space and time to the occurrence of these gasoline components. Other sources of gasoline components to Lake Tahoe, such as the atmosphere, surface runoff, and subsurface flow, are minor compared to the input by motorized boating. Water sampled from Lake Tahoe during mid-winter, when motorized boating activity is low, had no MTBE and only one sample had any detectable BTEX compounds. Soluble pesticides rarely were detected in water samples from the Lake Tahoe Basin. The only detectable concentrations of these compounds were in samples from Blackwood and Taylor Creeks collected during spring runoff. Concentrations found in these samples were low, in the 1 to 4 nanograms per liter range. Organochlorine compounds were detected in samples collected from semipermeable membrane devices (SPMD's) collected from Lake Tahoe, tributary streams, and Upper Angora Lake. In Lake Tahoe, SPMD samples collected offshore from urbanized areas contained the largest number and highest concentrations of organochlorine compounds. The most commonly detected organochlorine compounds were cis- and trans-chlordane, p , p' -DDE, and hexachlorobenzene. In tributary streams, SPMD samples collected during spring runoff generally had higher combined concentrations of organochlorine compounds than those collected during baseflow conditions. Upper Angora Lake had the fewest number of organochlorine compounds detected of all lake samples. Dioxins and furans were not detected in SPMD samples from two sites in Lake Tahoe or from two tributary streams. The number of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds and their combined concentrations generally were higher in samples from Lake Tahoe than those from tributary streams. Areas of high-motorized boating activity at Lake Tahoe had the largest number and highest concentrations of PAH's. PAH compounds were detected in samples from SPMD's in four of six tributary streams during spring runoff, all tributary streams during baseflow conditions, and at all lake sites. The most commonly detected PAH's in tributary streams during spring runoff were phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and chrysene, and during baseflow conditions were phenanthrene, 1-methylphenanthrene, diethylnaphthalene, and pyrene. Upper Truckee River, which has an urban area in its drainage basin, had the largest number and highest combined concentration of PAH's of all stream samples. Bottom-sediment from Lake Tahoe had detectable concentrations of p-cresol, a phenol, in all but one sample. A sample collected near Chambers Lodge contained phenol at an estimated concentration of 4 micrograms per kilogram (µg/kg). Bottom-sediment samples from tributary streams had no detectable concentrations of organochlorine or PAH compounds. Several compounds were detected in bottom sediment from Upper Angora Lake at high concentrations. These compounds and their concentrations were p , p' -DDD (10 µg/kg), p , p' -DDE (7.4 µg/kg), 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene (estimated at 190 µg/kg), pentachlorophenol (3,000 µg/kg), and p-cresol (4,400 µg/kg).

California, Nevada

Latitudinal gradients of snow contamination in the Rocky Mountains associated with anthropogenic sources

Seasonal snow is an important source of drinking water and recreation, and for agriculture in the Rocky Mountain region. Monitoring snow-water quality can inform on the effects to the albedo and energy balance of the snowpack, and the sources of natural and anthropogenic aerosol and gases. This study analyzed metals in the seasonal snowpack from water year (WY) 2018 for 49 sites. Calcium, lanthanum, and cerium concentrations support the importance of mineral dust to the southern Rocky Mountains. Mercury (Hg), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) concentrations showed a similar spatial pattern to mineral dust, whereas antimony (Sb) concentrations were highest in the northern Rocky Mountains. To assess the relative contributions from dust versus anthropogenic contaminant sources, enrichment factors (EF) were calculated, with values above 10 indicating anthropogenic contamination. For Cd, Hg, Sb, and Zn, EF values exceeded 10 at northern sites. These observations were compared to spatial trends of EF values of Hg from WY2009 to WY2018, regional monitoring networks, and back trajectory analyses. The agreement between these datasets revealed temporally consistent contaminant sources and/or transport processes to the northern Rocky Mountains snowpack. Sources include current and historical mining and smelting in the region. Strategies to limit the emissions of these metals to the Northern Rockies could benefit from focusing on remediation of contaminated sites, and continued monitoring and mitigation of active mining and smelting.

Colorado , Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma — Nutrients, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended sediment in surface water, 1993-95

Nutrient, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended- sediment samples were collected from 1993-95 at 43 surface-water-quality sampling sites within the Ozark Plateaus National Water- Quality Assessment Program study unit. Most surface-water-quality sites have small or medium drainage basins, near-homogenous land uses (primarily agricultural or forest), and are located predominantly in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The water-quality data were analyzed using selected descriptive and statistical methods to determine factors affecting occurrence in streams in the study unit. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use increased in the Ozark Plateaus study unit for the period 1965-85, but the application rates are well below the national median. Fertilizer use differed substantially among the major river basins and physiographic areas in the study unit. Livestock and poultry waste is a major source of nutrient loading in parts of the study unit. The quantity of nitrogen and phosphorus from livestock and poultry wastes differed substantially among the river basins of the study unit's sampling network. Eighty six municipal sewage-treatment plants in the study unit have effluents of 0.5 million gallons per day or more (for the years 1985-91). Statistically significant differences existed in surface-water quality that can be attributed to land use, physiography, and drainage basin size. Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations generally were larger at sites associated with agricultural basins than at sites associated with forested basins. A large difference in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations occurred between streams draining basins with agricultural land use in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. Streams draining both small and medium agricultural basins in the Springfield Plateau had much larger concentrations than their counterparts in the Salem Plateau. Drainage basin size was not a significant factor in affecting total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, or dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Suspended-sediment concentrations generally were small and indicative of the clear water in streams in the Ozark Plateaus. A comparison of the dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform data collected at the fixed and synoptic sites indicates that generally the data for streams draining basins of similar physiography, land-use setting, and drainage basin size group together. Many of the variations are most likely the result of differences in percent agricultural land use between the sites being compared or are discharge related. The relation of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform concentration to percent agricultural land use has a strong positive 2 Water-Quality Assessment-Nutrients, Bacteria, Organic Carbon, and Suspended Sediment in Surface Water, 1993-95 correlation, with percent agricultural land use accounting for between 42 and 60 percent of the variation in the observed concentrations.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York