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USGS2025

Rapid risk assessment framework to estimate potential for spillback at human-wildlife interfaces

More than 60% of emerging infectious diseases of humans have a wildlife origin, and when these diseases spread through human populations to new geographical areas, there is a considerable risk of spillback from humans to wildlife species. Spillback events can have severe consequences for wildlife populations, where the disease may cause morbidity and mortality, and human populations, where the establishment in wildlife may lead to prolonged transmission or new exposures in humans. Mitigating these consequences requires identifying the key risk factors that lead to human–wildlife transmission events and implementing risk-reducing actions, a challenge given that cross-species transmission events are rare and often data deficient. To identify potential species and locations that are most likely to lead to these rare events, we developed a spatially explicit, rapid risk assessment framework that incorporates three components of the spillback process: wildlife susceptibility, wildlife exposure, and pathogen introduction pressure. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our framework, we conducted a rapid risk assessment on two recent emerging zoonotic pathogens in humans, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and mpox, to determine the relative spillback risk to wild mammalian species in the continental United States. The rapid risk assessment identified both species and locations with higher than expected spillback risk, providing managers and researchers with valuable information to prioritize surveillance and risk-mitigation actions. Our framework represents a rapid and flexible approach to assess the risks of spillback to wildlife populations during rapidly evolving zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗
USGS2021

Elk migration influences the risk of disease spillover in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Wildlife migrations provide important ecosystem services, but they are declining. Within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) some elk ( Cervus canadensis ) herds are losing migratory tendencies, which may increase spatiotemporal overlap between elk and livestock (domestic bison [ Bison bison ] and cattle [ Bos taurus ]), potentially exacerbating pathogen transmission risk. We combined disease, movement, demographic, and environmental data from eight elk herds in the GYE to examine the differential risk of brucellosis transmission (through aborted fetuses) from migrant and resident elk to livestock. For both migrants and residents, we found that transmission risk from elk to livestock occurred almost exclusively on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Weather variability affected the estimated distribution of spillover risk from migrant elk to livestock, with a 7‐12% increase in migrant abortions on private ranchlands during years with heavier snowfall. In contrast, weather variability did not affect spillover risk from resident elk. Migrant elk were responsible for the majority (68%) of disease spillover risk to livestock because they occurred in greater numbers than resident elk. On a per‐capita basis, however, our analyses suggested that resident elk disproportionately contributed to spillover risk. In five of seven herds, we estimated that the per‐capita spillover risk was greater from residents than from migrants. Averaged across herds, an individual resident elk was 23% more likely than an individual migrant elk to abort on private ranchlands. Our results demonstrate links between migration behavior, spillover risk, and environmental variability, and highlight the utility of integrating models of pathogen transmission and host movement to generate new insights about the role of migration in disease spillover risk. Further, they add to the accumulating body of evidence across taxa that suggests that migrants and residents should be considered separately during investigations of wildlife disease ecology. Finally, our findings have applied implications for elk and brucellosis in the GYE, and suggest that managers should prioritize actions that maintain spatial separation of elk and livestock on private ranchlands during years when snowpack persists into the risk period.

Wyoming↗
USGS1937

Disease relationship of domestic stock and wildlife

From the time that western civilization established itself on the North American continent until very recent years, little thought was given to the diseases, or other forms of loss, in game. In the process of bringing civilization and the incidental domestic arts and trades to the United States it appears to have been the policy to establish domestic farm stock on the land just as abundantly as the carrying capacity of land would tolerate. And judged by the low quality of many of our present farm animals, it is evident that in many cases the land was, and is now, overstocked and undermanaged. In traveling over this country one is impressed by the lack of uniformity, imperfect physical development, and poor state of nutrition of much of the domestic livestock. It would appear that the wild animals unhampered by fencing and other restraint such as controlled mating, feed selection, and enforced habitat in contaminated or polluted environment, have a better chance for perfect growth and complete development to a size and proportion normal for those species. While all of the factors mentioned produce a definitely deleterious result on the welfare of animal life, that of contaminated or polluted environment is by no means the least. The stunting action of disease on the growth of the young is too well known to admit of controversy. The impairment of function of vital organs due to minute cellular changes resulting from sub-acute or chronic infections prevents normal growth. Through centuries of enforced survival in densely congested pastures, pens, and stables, a certain degree of acquired resistance to many diseases has been built up in farm stock. If it were not so, very few barnyard animals would ever survive the conditions generally seen in our agricultural districts. Manure heaps, quantities of partly spoiled feed, and decaying masses of vegetation and refuse have come to be regarded as a natural part of the barnyard scene.

Conference Paper↗