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Results for “Reliability Engineering and System Safety (RESS)”

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1,692 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Age and colony variation in Adélie penguin metapopulation vital rates: Insights from a 25-year mark–recapture study

Understanding how vital rates vary with age, life-history stage, and among populations is fundamental for predicting the demographic consequences of environmental change, especially in longer-lived species with complex life histories. These species often exhibit delayed maturity and iteroparity, making nuanced demographic insights critical for assessing their long-term viability. This study investigated age- and colony-related variation in Adélie penguin vital rates including survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity. We used mark–recapture data collected over 25 years (1996–2020) from three Adélie penguin breeding colonies that differed in population sizes and trends but comprised a metapopulation located at capes Royds, Bird, and Crozier on Ross Island, Antarctica. We used multi-state models to estimate survival and detection rates relative to reproductive state and breeding colony and estimated transition probabilities reflecting movements between reproductive states and colonies. Apparent survival varied by reproductive state, colony, and age and averaged 0.80 (SD = 0.02) at Bird, and 0.72 (SD = 0.03) and 0.73 (SD = 0.03) at Crozier and Royds, respectively, for pre-breeders age 2–7 years with strong declines in pre-breeder survival after age 8. We observed less age-related variation in survival of breeders and non-breeders, but we observed differences between colonies with lower survival for breeders (0.72 to 0.80) compared to non-breeders (0.75 to 0.82). The average probability of surviving the first 2 years after fledging ranged from 0.43 (SD = 0.14) at Royds and Crozier (0.43, SD = 0.10) to 0.55 (SD = 0.15) at Bird. Movement between colonies was highest for pre-breeders (0.00%–12.00% depending on age and colony) and lowest for breeders (<0.20%). We observed the lowest age-related recruitment rates at Royds, with recruitment at Crozier almost twice as high, and intermediate at Bird. Breeding propensity was highest at Crozier and lowest at Bird. Colony-specific variation in vital rates likely contributed differently to population trajectories, suggesting that care must be taken to extrapolate vital rate estimates across colonies even within a metapopulation. These findings also highlight the importance of considering age, life-history stage, and geographic variation when assessing population vital rates in species with complex life histories.

Frontiers in Ecology and Environment↗
USGS1995

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma: Analysis of information on nutrients, suspended sediment, and suspended solids, 1970-92

Water-quality data collected during water years 1970-90 (October 1 to September 30) for 83 surface-water sites and during 1970-92 for 395 ground-water sites in the 48,000 square mile Ozark Plateaus study unit of the National Water Quality Assessment Program were analyzed using selected descriptive and statistical methods. The water- quality data include nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), suspended sediment, and suspended- solids data, and ancillary information such as fertilizer use, animal waste, sewage treatment plant, and land use. Statistically significant differences exist in surface-water quality that can be attributed to physiography, land use, and other effects. The sites that were considered to be substantially affected by sewage treatment plants had the largest concentrations of nutrients. Nutrient concentrations generally were larger at sites associated with agricultural basins than at sites associated with forested basins. Statistically significant differences existed in the quality of ground water that can be attributed to hydrogeologic and land-use effects. Nutrient concentrations generally were largest where the water source is indicated to be shallow in origin and where parts of the hydrogeologic units are in agricultural land-use areas. Water quality has changed at several surface-water sites since 1970. Nutrient concentrations appear to have increased at some sites and decreased at other sites. Causes of these apparent trends are not known, but many of the sites with apparent trends are in agricultural areas. Surface-water loads of nutrients and suspended sediment were affected by several factors including streamflow, climate, drainage area, reservoir operation, and inputs from point and nonpoint sources. Annual loads were largest in large basins, with large inputs of nutrients or sediment during periods of high streamflows at locations where reservoir operation effects are not substantial.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2025

Comparisons of shoreline positions from satellite-derived and traditional field- and remote-sensing techniques

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Alaska, Florida, Massachusetts, Washington↗
USGS2024

Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.

California↗
USGS2025

Decomposing the Tea Bag Index and finding slower organic matter loss rates at higher elevations and deeper soil horizons in a minerogenic salt marsh

Environmental gradients can affect organic matter decay within and across wetlands and contribute to spatial heterogeneity in soil carbon stocks. We tested the sensitivity of decay rates to tidal flooding and soil depth in a minerogenic salt marsh using the Tea Bag Index (TBI). Tea bags were buried at 10 and 50 cm depths across an elevation gradient in a subtropical Spartina alterniflora marsh in Georgia (USA). Plant and animal communities and soil properties were characterized once, while replicate tea bags and porewaters were collected several times over 1 year. TBI decay rates were faster than prior litterbag studies in the same marsh, largely due to rapid green tea loss. Rooibos tea decay rates were more comparable to natural marsh litter, potentially suggesting that is more useful as a standardized organic matter proxy than green tea. Decay was slowest at higher marsh elevations and not consistently related to other biotic (e.g., plants, crab burrows) or abiotic factors (e.g., porewater chemistry), indicating that local hydrology strongly affected organic matter loss rates. TBI rates were 32 %–118 % faster in the 10 cm horizon than at 50 cm. Rates were fastest in the first 3 months and slowed 54 %–60 % at both depths between 3 and 6 months. Rates slowed further between 6 and 12 months, but this was more muted at 10 cm (17 %) compared to 50 cm (50 %). Slower rates at depth and with time were unlikely due to the TBI stabilization factor, which was similar across depths and decreased from 6 to 12 months. Slower decay at 50 cm demonstrates that rates were constrained by environmental conditions in the deeper horizon rather than the composition of this highly standardized litter. Overall, these patterns suggest that hydrological setting, which affects oxidant introduction and reactant removal and is often overlooked in marsh decomposition studies, may be a particularly important control on organic matter loss in the short term (3–12 months).

Georgia↗
USGS2024

Formation of vertical columnar seismic structures and seafloor depressions by groundwater discharge in the drowned Miami Terrace platform and overlying deep-water carbonates, southeastern Florida

The presence of vertical cross-formational fluid migration passageways within sedimentary basins can profoundly impact aquifer and reservoir fluid-flow and their identification is fundamental to informing management of subsurface fluid resources (groundwater, oil, gas). In an onshore and offshore southeastern part of Florida, 2D/3D seismic-reflection and bathymetry data document ∼153 vertical columnar structures composed of reflection disruptions up to 790 m in the height and averaging 360 m in diameter, and ∼219 subcircular to circular seafloor depressions up to 1334 m wide. Our study focuses on these features found within the offshore shallow-marine carbonate Miami Terrace platform, which drowned approximately at the end of the middle Miocene, and within overlying Plio-Quaternary deep-water carbonate slope and drift deposits. Most columnar structures are rooted in stratiform aquifers of the Miami Terrace platform and associated with faults or fault intersections produced by Eocene and circa late Miocene tectonics. The columns commonly terminate within the platform or as subcircular depressions along an amalgamated karstic and drowning unconformity at the platform top. The columns typically stretch upwards from a zone of deep karst cavity collapse through the Miami Terrace platform with upward decreasing sag on internal reflections. Following drowning and Plio-Quaternary partial burial of the Miami Terrace platform by deep-water deposits, the subcircular depressions and faults along the platform top were points of origin for a second phase of column growth upward into the deep-water deposits. The continuation of deep platform cavity collapse and column evolution produced pockmarks along paleo-seafloors within the deep-water deposits and at the present-day sea floor. The Plio-Quaternary pockmarks formed at water depths too deep to suggest an origin related to meteoric karst above or near sea level, but rather their formation is suggested to be related to cyclic sea level falls that drove increased groundwater head and density gradients, and seafloor discharge of offshore freshened groundwater sourced from the underlying platform. Plausibly, mixing of freshened groundwater and seawater at the seafloor discharge sites drove dissolution of the host deep-water deposits, which together with erosion by groundwater venting and current scouring formed the pockmarks. Seaward of the Plio-Quaternary seafloor pockmarks, at the late-middle Miocene upper slope of the Miami Terrace platform and along the regional karst/drowning unconformity is a slope-parallel band of ∼189 densely distributed subcircular seafloor depressions with diameters up to 1334 m at water depths up to ∼660 m. It is plausible that along the upper slope, faults and fractures produced by gravity-driven slope instability and possibly tectonics formed a dense network of fluid passageways that promoted upward artesian freshened groundwater flow to sites of discharge where mixing with seawater generated limestone dissolution and the depressions. But tectonic uplift may have forced emersion and initial meteoric sinkhole formation circa late Miocene with later enhancement by freshened groundwater discharge and bottom current erosion.

Florida↗
USGS2022

South Carolina and Landsat

South Carolina, the eighth State admitted to the union, transcends its size with its deep, rich history; striking beauty; vast natural resources; and extensive cultural diversity. Home to part of the Blue Ridge Mountains of the Central Appalachians, the Upstate is graced with more than 100 waterfalls, while the Lowcountry borders the Atlantic Ocean with 187 miles of coastline and 35 barrier islands. Forests cover two-thirds of the State, and forestry and agriculture together, as agribusiness, make up South Carolina’s leading industry. Two historic crops—cotton and tobacco—still rank in the top 10 commodities, though corn and soybeans now rank higher. Poultry, cattle, peanuts, and flowers also make the list. South Carolina’s population totals more than five million. Other residents include a variety of wildlife, bird, reptile, and fish species, including Ursus americanus (black bears), Alligator mississippiensis (American alligators), and Tursiops truncatus (bottlenose dolphins). More than 100 tree species also reside in South Carolina, which pays homage to one with its “The Palmetto State” nickname. South Carolina’s subtropical climate, long coastline, and lower elevations make it highly susceptible to tornado and hurricane activity and coastal flooding. Projected sea-level rise is a growing concern. A view from space can help monitor and manage natural resources on the land and in rivers, marshes, and the coast. Landsat reveals not just what an area looks like now, but also insights from decades ago.

South Carolina↗
USGS2025

Enhanced hydrologic monitoring and characterization of groundwater drainage features

Groundwater drains to the land surface, generating the baseflow of streams, lakes, and wetlands. The hydrologic resilience of baseflow during prolonged dry periods and after disturbance can be assessed with evolving remote sensing analysis paired with localized monitoring of groundwater drainage features and creative model calibration strategies.

Nature Water↗
USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2024

Apatite and monazite geochemistry record magmatic and metasomatic processes in rare earth element mineralization at Mountain Pass, California

The largest rare earth element (REE) deposit in the United States is a carbonatite intrusion at Mountain Pass in the Mojave Desert, California. Despite a clear spatiotemporal association of alkaline silicate and carbonatite intrusions at Mountain Pass, a genetic model of their mutual formation has not been resolved. The Mountain Pass carbonatite has long been upheld as an example of a primary magmatic body, but recent work has suggested it could be fluid-derived. This study investigates the geochemistry of apatite and monazite grains from the alkaline silicate and carbonatite stocks and dikes of the Mountain Pass district, to elucidate the magmatic history of the intrusive suite and identify the role of fluids in rare earth element mineralization. Three apatite populations are identified in the alkaline silicate rocks. A primary magmatic apatite group supports intrusion of the stocks as separate pulses of magma derived from a spatially extensive metasomatized mantle source region. The second group implicates the role of a regional fluid that mobilized light rare earth elements from apatite grains. A minor group of inherited apatite cores, identified by low Sr and negative Eu anomalies, supports assimilation of crustal material in the formation of the intrusive suite. Analyses of monazite and apatite grains from the carbonatite orebody also reveal a mix of primary magmatic and metasomatic (fluid-related) minerals. Compositional similarities between primary phosphates in the carbonatite and alkaline silicate rocks support a genetic link between the intrusive suites. The presence of fluids regionally and within the carbonatite orebody indicates the Mountain Pass carbonatite should not be classified as a purely magmatic REE deposit.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2026

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2026

Spectral characteristics and mapping of lithium-rich playas in the Basin and Range Province, western United States

This report presents a comprehensive set of prospectivity maps for lithium in brines located within the playas of the Basin and Range Province of western United States. The prospectivity assessment is based on criteria established in the descriptive deposit model outlined in a previous U.S. Geological Survey report, with a focus on regional remote sensing methodologies. The playas within the study area have been systematically ranked according to several key factors, including size, the presence and abundance of source rocks, vegetation as an indicator of water availability, documented prospects, and data products derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor. Notably, the deposits in the playa of Clayton Valley make it stand out as the sole lithium brine-producing playa in the United States. The ASTER sensor provides optimal regional coverage, characterized by a 60-kilometer swath width and unique multispectral capabilities that are not available with other remote sensing instruments. This report and the accompanying maps are intended to serve as resources for further multidisciplinary assessments of lithium or other elements or commodities where prospectivity can be inferred from the presence of proxies such as alteration minerals.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, I↗
USGS2024

3-D mapping of the conterminous U.S. within the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program: Progress and future prospects

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Cooperative Mapping Program (NCGMP) is bringing together subsurface and three-dimensional information at multiple scales for the conterminous United States from data produced throughout the USGS and by federal and state partners. Components of this work include data inventory and catalog development, data integration and database development, and construction of subregional and basin-scale three-dimensional (3-D) geologic models. At small scales, the NCGMP is compiling subsurface data to create a limited number of subsurface layers that map the majority of the lower 48 States. At larger scales, 3-D models of stratigraphic units are intended to be the subsurface analog and extension of the surface geologic maps made within the Program. The Mapping Program is developing methods of storing, visualizing, and distributing 3-D models and subsurface data from multiple sources in easily shareable, queryable, non-proprietary format(s). We report on progress in 3-D mapping of the conterminous U.S. and on future prospects.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Generating geochemical and mineralogy distributions of soil in the conterminous United States using Bayesian hierarchical spatial models

Characterizing geochemical and mineralogical soil distributions across large spatial extents is essential for understanding mineral resources, ecosystem processes, and environmental risks. Rasters of soil geochemical distributions for the conterminous United States, however, are limited. We present a Bayesian modeling workflow and tool for generating predictive geochemical and mineralogy distribution maps for the conterminous United States using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) with the stochastic partial differential equation approach. By modeling soil geostatistical data with environmental covariates (soil properties, topography, climate, and land cover), we generate predictive distributions of soil geochemistry that can be mapped or extracted for further analyses. As an example, we model the spatial distribution of trace elements in soil relevant to vertebrate health (cobalt, copper, iron, manganese, selenium, and zinc) and provide a workflow that can be used to generate and visualize predictive distributions of 39 other major and trace elements and 21 minerals of the soil survey, supporting a variety of ecological, environmental, and agricultural applications.

MethodsX↗
USGS2024

Thick- and thin-skinned contractional styles and the tectonic evolution of the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, USA, contain an unusual combination of thick- and thin-skinned contractional structures involving both basement and cover rocks in the Laramide Rocky Mountain foreland. These structures are truncated by down-faulted extensional basins to the east and west. Together with synorogenic sediments, these structures preserve a record of the rise of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, the Laramide orogeny, and Rio Grande rifting. Laramide structures within the mountains provide clues to processes that link the three events and to necessary conditions for thin-skinned and thick-skinned contractional structures to form together in continental interiors. To examine the full variety of structural styles, a portion of the northern Sangre de Cristo fold- and-thrust belt in Colorado was described and interpreted using geologic maps and structural cross-sections. Stratigraphic relations of the Ancestral Rocky Mountain highlands and basin fill were reconstructed from existing maps. These relations allow identification of faults inherited from the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, differentiation of thrust sheets, and in some cases, estimation of the magnitude of displacement. To examine relations between Laramide thrusts and Rio Grande rifting, kinematic data were collected from a thrust fault adjacent to rift faults. Three thrust fault styles were recognized: thin-skinned basement, thin-skinned cover rocks, and thick-skinned basement. Thin-skinned thrusts arising from a hinterland beneath the present San Luis Valley carried sheets of Proterozoic basement rocks northeast over a Laramide foreland. These basement thrusts are interpreted to be faults of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains that reactivated during the Laramide orogeny. The Laramide foreland consists of thin-skinned thrusts and folds in sedimentary cover rocks as young as 49 Ma. Both thin-skinned thrusts in basement and cover rocks are bounded by thick-skinned basement thrusts that moved intermittently throughout the Laramide orogeny. We infer that thin-skinned thrusts form in continental interiors where deformation is focused in weak strata of thick basin fill and in fluid-reaction weakened preexisting faults in basement rocks. Both conditions are met in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Basement thrusts adjacent to the San Luis Valley contain evidence of plastic contractional microstructures overprinted by extensional microstructures that may record the transition from Laramide contraction to Rio Grande extension of the crust.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

The mineral chemistry networks of tin and tungsten reflect metallogenic eras of the Mesozoic

Continental remobilization is a crucial driver of metallogenesis and the formation of ore deposits. Some of the world’s largest mineral deposits of the economically valuable elements tin (Sn), tungsten (W), gold (Au), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) formed during the Mesozoic Era. Additionally, the chemistry and distribution of the elements Sn and W have been investigated in previous studies to understand planetary formation and differentiation processes. These two elements are largely co-located during certain South China Mesozoic metallogenic events but are not co-located during other time periods in the same regions. Here, we investigated the mineral chemistry network similarities and dissimilarities of Sn and W to understand their mineral formation and distribution during the Mesozoic Era and throughout Earth history. Mineral chemistry network community detection analysis and electronegativity associations among mineral constituent elements of Sn minerals and W minerals indicate that the elements have similar chemistry among their oxide minerals. However, Sn forms a much wider range of minerals that also contain S compared to W, which occurs in a limited number of S-containing minerals. The divergent constituent element interactions among S-containing Sn minerals and W minerals reflect the redox sensitivity and importance of oxygen (O) fugacity in Sn mineral formation. Conversely, extensive W mineral deposits are known to form at both high and low O fugacities. The similarities and differences between the mineral chemistry networks of Sn and W reflect the mineral distribution of the two elements in the Sn-W mineralization event from 160 to 139 Ma vs. the Sn–uranium (U) mineralization event from 125 to 98 million years ago (Ma). The mineral chemistry and distribution of Mesozoic Sn and W deposits illustrate the contrasting importance of redox and O fugacity on the mineral formation of different elements, and the dynamic crustal evolution that took place during this period of Earth history.

Geosciences↗