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Factors affecting the distribution of water-bearing fractures in the bedrock aquifers of West Virginia

Bedrock aquifers cover 23,601 square miles within the State of West Virginia and comprise 97.4 percent of the surficial area within the State; the remaining 2.6 percent (621 square miles) consists of alluvial sand-and-gravel and glacial outwash aquifers bordering the State’s major rivers. While West Virginia’s alluvial aquifers have been studied extensively, bedrock aquifers have only been characterized for studies completed in a few areas in Jefferson, McDowell, and Monroe Counties. Bedrock aquifers are water supplies for public supply, agriculture, industry, and residential homeowner use. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection Division of Water and Waste Management, provides a statewide assessment of the occurrence and distribution of fractures within bedrock aquifers of the State and the various topographic, physiographic, and lithologic influences controlling the occurrence and distribution of bedrock fractures. The results of this study provide an increased understanding of the distribution of fractures in bedrock aquifers in West Virginia and help to verify trends that have been suspected for many years but were never well documented or verified by data. The results confirmed that the density of fractures and those that were determined to be water bearing decrease significantly with depth. A statistically significant difference in the density of fractures was observed at a depth of 215 feet for wells in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province’s and in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province’s aquifers; a higher density of fractures and water-bearing fractures were above a depth of 215 feet than below that depth. This is an important consideration when drilling wells for residential, commercial, industrial, or agricultural water supply. Abandoned underground coal mines are commonly believed to form large pools of water in the interconnected mine entries in abandoned room and pillar coal mines. Such pools of water can and do exist in abandoned underground coal mines, but many mines lack open entries and are held up by overburden strata and pillars that can collapse and form aquifers comprised of vast interconnected rubble zones (gob), especially in older mines. Data assessed for this study showed that shale-corrected values of effective porosity for limestone aquifers in West Virginia had a median value of 2 percent and an average value of 4 percent and generally are mineralized with low effective porosity. Argillaceous or sandy limestone has a median shale-corrected porosity of 4 percent and an average shale-corrected porosity of 5 percent. The median and average shale-corrected porosity of sandstone aquifers was estimated to be 14 percent, but the median shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 5 percent and the average shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 6 percent. Even though shale has a relatively high total sonic porosity compared to other lithologies, shale and siltstone had relatively low shale-corrected porosity, ranging from 0 to 2 percent. Well yields were previously documented to be highest in valley settings, lowest on hilltops, and intermediate on hillsides. Transmissivity data provided by this study confirm this general pattern within the Appalachian Plateaus Province; however, the Valley and Ridge Province does not follow this pattern. While still lowest on hilltop settings, the highest well yields were in hillside settings. The trend for the Valley and Ridge Province was likely skewed because of 9 high-yield wells specifically targeting deeper thin limestone units, such as the Tonoloway and Helderberg Limestones, at depths with transmissivity in excess of 2,000 feet squared per day in Mineral County, West Virginia, or targeting karst aquifers in Berkeley, Jefferson, or Greenbrier Counties, West Virginia. Finally, water-bearing fractures have been hypothesized to comprise a small number of all fractures within a typical bedrock well in West Virginia. Data collected for this study support this theory. A total of 3,403 fractures were identified during this study; 3,151 (92.6 percent) of those fractures are low-transmissive, and only 252 (7.4 percent) fractures are water-bearing. Even though a well may contain many fractures, less than 8 percent are considered water-bearing fractures.

West Virginia

The role of groundwater in contributing to surface water salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Freshwater salinization impacts the availability of water for human use and ecosystem needs worldwide. It has been estimated that total dissolved solids (TDS) in the Colorado River Basin cause $350 million/year in damages and substantial resources are devoted to reducing TDS loading to streams. This study describes the development and application of coupled watershed models that enable TDS source tracking through the subsurface and across the landscape at a seasonal timestep for 35 years in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Results indicate that, on average, 75% of TDS loading to streams originates as baseflow, and 50% of loading is lagged in delivery by longer than one season. Snowmelt was identified as a dominant process controlling the transport of lagged TDS to streams. This approach informs when and where TDS mitigation efforts may be effective in a watershed that serves as a critical water supply for the southwestern United States.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Spectral characteristics and mapping of lithium-rich playas in the Basin and Range Province, western United States

This report presents a comprehensive set of prospectivity maps for lithium in brines located within the playas of the Basin and Range Province of western United States. The prospectivity assessment is based on criteria established in the descriptive deposit model outlined in a previous U.S. Geological Survey report, with a focus on regional remote sensing methodologies. The playas within the study area have been systematically ranked according to several key factors, including size, the presence and abundance of source rocks, vegetation as an indicator of water availability, documented prospects, and data products derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor. Notably, the deposits in the playa of Clayton Valley make it stand out as the sole lithium brine-producing playa in the United States. The ASTER sensor provides optimal regional coverage, characterized by a 60-kilometer swath width and unique multispectral capabilities that are not available with other remote sensing instruments. This report and the accompanying maps are intended to serve as resources for further multidisciplinary assessments of lithium or other elements or commodities where prospectivity can be inferred from the presence of proxies such as alteration minerals.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, I

An inventory of three-dimensional geologic models—U.S. Geological Survey, 2004–22

A database of spatial footprints and characteristics of three-dimensional geological models that were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey between 2004 and 2022 was compiled as part of ongoing development of subsurface geologic information by the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program. This initial inventory resulted in the compilation of 38 three-dimensional geological models that vary widely in their spatial extent, the type and purpose of the model, the number of subsurface units characterized by the model, and the software platforms used to create the model. This Data Report provides the scientific rationale and explanation of the contents of a companion USGS digital data release of spatial data and attributes associated with each three-dimensional model.

Data Report

Mineral chemistry perspective on remobilization of stored magma at Kamakai'a Hills, Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea, Island of Hawai'i, USA

Differentiated magmas stored in the rift zones of Kīlauea have received more attention in recent years following eruption of andesite during the early phase of 2018 lower East Rift Zone activity. Despite this growing interest, some of the most voluminous eruptions of differentiated rift zone magmas remain poorly studied. One such eruption, and the most voluminous exposed differentiated flow field at Kīlauea, is the Kamakaiʻa Hills. This eruption took place in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, a region that is hypothesized to contain a long-lived rift zone reservoir. The Kamakaiʻa Hills flow field encompasses >250 × 10 6 m 3 of basaltic andesite and basalt compositions with a mineral assemblage of orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + plagioclase during its early ʻaʻā phase and clinopyroxene + plagioclase + olivine during its late pāhoehoe phase. To better understand storage conditions and magma accumulation, this study focuses on major, minor, and trace elements from the mineral assemblage present within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases. The diversity of clinopyroxene and plagioclase compositions within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases, as well as diverse compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene within the early ʻaʻā phase, suggest multiple magma bodies and limited pre-eruption magma mixing within the broader Kamakaiʻa Hills reservoir. Oscillatory zoning patterns (particularly in clinopyroxene) imply processes such as recharge events, magma mixing or mingling, or convection within a differentially cooling, chemically stratified reservoir over protracted time intervals, whereas only limited resorbed mineral textures indicate incomplete mixing of heat and chemically distinct magmas during the dike intrusion that triggered the eruption. Mineral-mineral and mineral-melt thermobarometry indicate predominantly shallow (≤2.5 km depth) crustal storage conditions of the cooled, differentiated magma (∼1100 °C and cooler for the basaltic andesites) to hotter temperatures for the basalts (all >1100 °C). Despite the known large standard errors estimated for mineral-melt and mineral-mineral barometry (10s to >100 MPa), the calculated pressures and depths broadly correspond with earthquake swarm depths beneath the Kamakaiʻa Hills, and drill core and fluid inclusion barometry storage depths of differentiated magmas within the lower East Rift Zone. The Kamakaiʻa Hills differentiated magmas have H 2 O contents (∼0.5 wt%, using plagioclase-melt hygrometry) equivalent to typical Kīlauea basalts. Our data and interpretations demonstrate a complex, long-lived rift zone storage system that consisted of multiple magma bodies and was mobilized into eruption through intrusion of a hotter and more primitive summit-derived (uprift) magma.

Hawaii

Solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits of the southern Colorado Plateau, northwestern Arizona, USA

Some of the highest-grade uranium deposits in the United States occur in breccia pipes that formed by solution and collapse of sedimentary strata, which occur in the southern portion of the Colorado Plateau in northwestern Arizona. The host breccia pipes are up to 1200 m in vertical extent, average about 90 m in diameter, and can cross-cut strata from their base in the Mississippian Redwall Limestone to as stratigraphically high on some plateaus as the Triassic Chinle Formation. These uranium-base metal deposits are up to 600 m thick and formed within the breccia pipes where they transect the Permian Coconino Sandstone, Hermit Formation, and the Esplanade Sandstone. Of the hundreds of breccia pipes identified across this region, only a small percentage are known to contain mineralization. The main uranium ore mineral is uraninite that is intergrown with at least 20 base-metal sulfide minerals, which contribute Fe, Cu, Co, As, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Ag to the deposits. This study considered regional stratigraphy, sulfur isotope systematics, mineralogy, in situ dating, and compilation and analysis of previous work on the deposits. A comprehensive deposit model has not been published for these deposits. This analysis identified new additions to update the deposit model for these unusual, possibly unique deposits. Proposed modifications to the model include: (1) the source, mechanisms, timing of the base-metal sulfide mineral assemblages, and (2) the source, mechanism, and timing of the uranium mineralization. Sulfide and uranium deposition are shown to be separate mineralization events. The study proposes the possible role of gypsum as a source of sulfur for the sulfide minerals in the deposits. Groundwaters carrying uranium encountered the preexisting sulfides in breccia pipes, reducing the uranyl ions, and precipitating U oxide (as uraninite). Analysis of the regional stratigraphy recognized that numerous beds of gypsum are in the strata that lie only tens of meters above the breccia pipe deposits. In the breccia pipe region, if these stratigraphic units (Toroweap and Kaibab Formations) do not contain gypsum layers then the underlying pipes are not mineralized; where these Permian gypsum layers do occur, breccia pipes can host mineralization. This new understanding should be useful in identifying the prospective region for mineralized pipes.

Arizona

Potentiometric surface maps and groundwater-level hydrographs for confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 2018

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), prepared potentiometric surface maps for 10 confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain physiographic province based on water-level measurements collected during late 2018 and early 2019 from 951 wells in New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania and Delaware. Maps were prepared for the confined Cohansey aquifer, Rio Grande water-bearing zone, Atlantic City 800-foot sand, Piney Point aquifer, Vincentown aquifer, Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, Englishtown aquifer system, and the upper, middle, and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system. Potentiometric surface maps indicate regional cones of depression in the following aquifers and the counties in which they are centered: Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Atlantic County, the Piney Point aquifer in Cumberland County, the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and Englishtown aquifer system in Monmouth and Ocean Counties, the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Camden and Gloucester County, the upper aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Ocean County, and the upper, middle, and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Camden County. Cones of depression with smaller areal extents were in the confined Cohansey aquifer, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand centered in Cape May County, the Piney Point aquifer centered in Ocean County, the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Salem and Burlington Counties, the Englishtown aquifer system in Camden County, the upper aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Monmouth County, and the middle aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem Counties. No cone of depression was interpreted in the Vincentown aquifer. Long-term hydrographs are presented for 75 wells spanning each of the 10 confined aquifers, and contain a mix of discrete water-level measurements and daily mean water levels based on continuously recorded 15-minute data. Changes of water levels during 2014–19, as indicated by the hydrographs, were compared with those of previous periods to assess any departures from historical data. During 2014–19, water levels were stable and fluctuated within similar ranges as previous periods in the following aquifers and locations: all wells in the confined Cohansey aquifer, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Vincentown aquifer, the Englishtown aquifer system, the Piney Point aquifer wells in Burlington and Ocean Counties, six of eight wells in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, all wells in the upper and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system outside NJDEP Critical Areas, and all wells in the middle aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system except those within NJDEP Critical Area II. Increasing water levels in 2014–19, ongoing since historical periods, were indicated in the following aquifers and locations: Atlantic County wells in the Piney Point aquifer, all wells in the upper and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system outside NJDEP Critical Areas, and all wells in the middle aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system within NJDEP Critical Area II. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand also increased during 2014–19 in wells in Atlantic County and northern Cape May County closer to the center of the cone of depression in that aquifer, which is a response unique to this period and absent from previous periods. During 2013–19, continued decreasing water levels, ongoing since previous periods, were indicated by hydrographs of Atlantic City 800-foot sand wells in southern Cape May County, Piney Point aquifer wells in Cumberland County where the regional cone of depression is located, and two wells in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer—070478, which in 2014–19 departed from previous periods, and 330020, which continued a gradual decrease throughout its period of record.

New Jersey

Ages and trace element fertility of porphyry-related mineralization in the Philipsburg polymetallic district, Montana, with a comparison to Butte

The Philipsburg mining district is a Mo-Cu porphyry system with associated Cordilleran polymetallic veins. Geochronology was employed to date the porphyry (~66 Ma, U/Pb in zircon) and molybdenite mineralization from the veins (~76 Ma, Re-Os). Age results suggest that the two-mineralization events model proposed by Lund et al. (2018) for the Butte district can be applied to the Philipsburg deposit. Furthermore, common fertility indicators from zircon trace elements were analyzed with variable success to characterize the existing Mo-Cu mineralization of the Philipsburg porphyry. This raises concerns about the benefits of this method and/or the importance of sampling, which could impact exploration for similar porphyry deposits.

Montana

Geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Much of the southeastern United States, including all of Florida, is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains which have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks that underlie these coastal plains in Florida, here collectively referred to as “basement,” are known only from a relatively small number of boreholes. This scientific investigations map presents an interpretation of the basement geology in a 1:1,000,000-scale subsurface geologic map with supporting text, data, and figures. The subsurface mapping methodology integrates petrographic, geochronological, thermochronological, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of drill cores and cuttings in the context of regional geophysical data. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks of Florida consist of the Gondwanan (West African) Suwannee terrane which was accreted to Laurentia during the Alleghanian orogeny and subsequently intruded by Permian granites, superposed by early Mesozoic rift basins, and partially overlain by bimodal Jurassic volcanic rocks. The younger basement components, specifically the Southwest Florida volcanic province, North Florida tholeiites, early Mesozoic rift basins, and Alleghanian granitoids, have correlative and contemporaneous units throughout the Appalachian orogen. In contrast, Florida’s older basement rocks, including Paleozoic siliciclastic strata of the Suwannee basin, North Florida volcanic series, Osceola and Gaskin intrusive complexes, and the St. Lucie Metamorphic Complex, have neither surface exposures nor unequivocal correlates. Major structures include early Mesozoic normal faults and northwest-striking transfer zones such as the Jay fault. Many of these faults define the boundaries of subbasins within the South Georgia rift system. Top-of-basement structure contours show gentle arches and embayments that are also recognized in overlying coastal plain strata.

Florida

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

Hawaii

Unscrambling the Proterozoic supercontinent record of northeastern Washington State, USA

The time interval from Supercontinent Nuna assembly in the late Paleoproterozoic to Supercontinent Rodinia breakup in the Neoproterozoic is considered by some geologists to comprise the “Boring Billion,” an interval possibly marked by a slowdown in plate tectonic processes. In northeastern Washington State, USA, similar to much of western Laurentia, early workers generally thought the tectonostratigraphic framework of this interval of geologic time consisted of two major sequences, the (ca. 1480–1380 Ma) Mesoproterozoic Belt Supergroup and unconformably overlying (<720 Ma) Neoproterozoic Windermere Supergroup. However, recent research indicates that strata considered by early workers as Belt Supergroup equivalents are actually younger, and a post-Belt, pre-Windermere record is present within the <1360 Ma Deer Trail Group and <760 Ma Buffalo Hump Formation. Thus, the northeastern Washington region perhaps comprises the most complete stratigraphic record of the “Boring Billion” time interval in the northwestern United States and holds important insights into global Proterozoic supercontinent tectonic processes. In light of these exciting developments, this field guide will address the early historic economic geology and original mapping of these Proterozoic sequences in the northeastern Washington region, and from that foundation explore more recent isotopic provenance data and their regional to global context. Finally, the guide will end with a discussion of remaining questions with a goal of stimulating interest in these relatively understudied, yet important, rocks.

Washington

Geochemistry and radiogenic isotopes constrain the mantle source region of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, California

The Mountain Pass carbonatite stock is the largest rare earth element (REE) deposit and only active REE mine in the United States. The carbonatite intrusion and spatially associated alkaline silicate intrusions constitute the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, which is located within the Mojave Province in California. Both the carbonatite and the alkaline silicate rocks are enriched in large ion lithophile elements and light REEs, and less enriched to depleted in high field strength elements, indicating the mantle source region was metasomatically enriched in incompatible trace elements. The cause of this metasomatic mantle enrichment and the genetic relationship between the carbonatite and the alkaline silicate stocks are poorly understood. In this study, major and trace element geochemical data and isotopic (Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and Lu-Hf) data are presented to constrain genesis of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite, from mantle source region to the intrusion of the stocks. Our geochemical data are consistent with derivation of the alkaline silicate and carbonatite melts through partial melting from a shared mantle source region rather than through liquid immiscibility or fractional crystallization and separation of a carbothermal fluid. Although the Rb-Sr isotopic system in the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite is disturbed at the whole-rock scale, the isotopic systems for whole-rock Sm-Nd (εNd i = ‐2.2 ± 0.8) and zircon Lu-Hf (εHf i = 0.1 ± 1.1) are robust and support mantle derivation of the magmas. Geochemical modeling using experimentally derived partition coefficients was used to identify possible causes of enrichment in incompatible elements through metasomatism in the mantle source region. Modeling of metasomatism by melts derived by partial melting of deeply subducted carbonated sediments approximates observed Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite trace element chemistry. Scattered εHf i in inherited zircon (2.8 ± 2.6) is consistent with derivation from an arc-related environment with substantial crustal contamination. Paleotectonic studies in the Mojave Province indicate that regional subduction preceded emplacement of the Mountain Pass Intrusive Suite by ∼300 Ma. Melting of the Mountain Pass source region may have been caused by post-collisional thermal relaxation and extension.

California

Tracking diagenetic alteration of magnetic susceptibility in thrust ridge and slope basin sediments of the Cascadia margin (ODP Sites 1249 and 1252; IODP Site U1325)

We investigated sediment core records from the Cascadia Margin (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1249 and 1252 at Hydrate Ridge; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1325 offshore Vancouver Island) using a Zr/Rb heavy mineral proxy from X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning to identify intervals of primary detrital magnetic susceptibility (κ) and predict intervals where diagenesis caused magnetite dissolution by hydrogen sulfide. We also measured total sulfur (TS) content, grain size distributions, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and the magnetic mineral assemblage to further constrain the role of diagenesis on κ. Understanding how κ can be used to better characterize the varied effects of detrital and diagenetic signals in marine settings is important for understanding biogeochemical cycling and records of paleoenvironmental change. The upper 100 m of slope basin Site 1252 contains multiple intervals (> 90 m total) of decreased κ correlated with elevated TS content, consistent with dissolution of magnetite and precipitation of pyrite, iron monosulfides, and/or elemental sulfur. Similarly at the other slope basin site, Site U1325, κ is lower and TS is elevated in the interval between 24 and 51 mbsf, due to sulfide formation. At both slope basin sites, these low κ intervals correspond with high TOC, suggesting the possibility that organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR) is likely a major driver of diagenetic alteration of κ at these sites. High TS:TOC ratios at Site U1325 suggests anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) during sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) migration may have contributed to alteration of κ. In contrast, within the upper 90 m of Site 1249, a methane seep site at the summit of Hydrate Ridge, κ is almost entirely altered by diagenetic processes, with much of the low κ explained by a high degree of iron sulfide formation, while some intervals are affected by precipitation of magnetic iron sulfides that maintain or even increase κ. The presence of abundant methane seepage and gas hydrate as well as chemosynthetic seafloor fauna at this site, suggests that sulfide is released to the water column and AOM, rather than OSR, drives diagenetic alteration of κ at this site. Overall, the slope basin sites show episodic variation of κ that is influenced by TOC content, likely driven by changes in marine primary productivity and sedimentation rate, while the seep site shows consistently altered κ with lower TS content and no correlation with TOC. Methane seep environments likely experience loss of hydrogen sulfide to the water column and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide by seafloor seep fauna, which limits the amount of solid phase sulfur (pyrite, iron monosulfides, elemental sulfur) that can be precipitated within the sediments. In contrast, the migration of a buried SMTZ at slope basin sites results in enhanced sulfur precipitation within the sediments. This integrated magnetic and geochemical approach reveals the diagenetic production pathway and residence time of sulfide with the sediment column ultimately controls the style and degree of diagenetic loss of κ in marine sediments. This approach works best in environments with unaltered reference intervals/sites, consistent magnetic mineralogy, and clay-to-silt grain sizes.

Cascadia margin, Pacific Ocean

Fault displacement model for surface principal rupture of strike-slip faults

The probability distribution model for principal displacement accommodated on the surface main trace is a critical input to the fault displacement hazard analysis. This article presents a new model for strike-slip ruptures in the moment magnitude ( M ) range of 6 to 8.3. The new model is the outcome of a multi-year research effort to update the widely used model developed by Petersen and others in 2011. Updates include the adoption of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative database and enhancements to rupture and displacement data preparation. Statistical formulation and estimation have also been updated substantially. A three-parameter modified normal distribution that we refer to as the negative Exponentially Modified Gaussian distribution is adopted to model the probability distribution of the natural logarithm of principal displacement. Formulation for the mean parameter of the modified normal includes a random earthquake term, a nonlinear scaling relation with M , and an ellipse function for along-main-trace variation. The aleatory variability of the updated model now depends on M as well as site’s along-main-trace position. These updates not only significantly improve the fit to the distribution of the observed displacements but also yield reasonable 95th percentile predictions for M > 7.5 events. Alternative models representing the estimation uncertainty of the M -scaling relation are also developed. These new models are compared to the previous model in terms of percentile predictions and the calculated hazard curves. The steeper hazard curves from the new models yield a lower exceedance rate than the normal-distribution based model developed previously by Petersen and others.

Earthquake Spectra

Unraveling protracted modification of Archean and Paleoproterozoic crust in central Laurentia, Penokean orogen, with garnet and accessory mineral geochronology and microstructural analysis

Proterozoic metamorphism and deformation of the southern margin of the Superior craton in the Lake Superior region is attributed to the Penokean orogeny (1890−1830 Ma). This model includes a period of crustal inversion in which Archean basement blocks were exhumed through overlying Paleoproterozoic strata, producing the corridor of gneiss domes that parallels the trend of the Penokean orogen across the northern Midcontinent, USA. However, recent geologic mapping and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology challenge this interpretation, suggesting instead that the gneiss dome structures reflect younger episodes of tectonic activity along the southern margin of Laurentia. In absence of integrated pressure-temperature-time-deformation constraints for these rocks, interpretations are largely limited to their final cooling history, making it difficult to both identify the tectonic forces that shaped the architecture of the Penokean orogenic belt and assess the extent to which later Proterozoic tectonism modified the southern Superior craton. We address this problem with an approach joining thermodynamic modeling, garnet and accessory mineral geochronology, and microstructural analysis for several metamorphic rocks across the gneiss dome corridor. The U-Pb ages of titanite reveal that the Proterozoic geometries of exhumed basement gneiss domes are governed by preexisting Archean structures. Garnet Lu-Hf geochronology constrains the timing of prograde-to-peak metamorphism in the Penokean orogenic belt. Granulite facies metamorphism is related to the final stages of the Penokean orogeny at 1837 Ma and localized in a belt of high-grade rocks near a major Penokean suture. Garnet Lu-Hf ages of samples adjacent to gneiss domes reflect regional metamorphism following the accretionary phase of the Penokean orogeny, between 1825 Ma and 1782 Ma, which we suggest reflects continued crustal thickening related to convergence farther south during this time interval. Combination of garnet microstructures and Sm-Nd ages reflects later exhumation of gneiss domes and buried metasedimentary rocks by ca. 1750 Ma, consistent with previously published 40 Ar/ 39 Ar cooling ages across the region. Reset Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages and U-Pb ages of syn-kinematic titanite reflect reactivation of primary Penokean structures during this period of basement uplift. These data document significant modification of the Penokean orogen and the Archean crust of the southern Superior province between 1800 Ma and 1700 Ma. Tectonic activity during this interval coincides with collisional events recognized in western Laurentia, suggesting that the period immediately following the Penokean orogeny may be a broadly important time for crustal growth and modification in proto-North America.

Michigan, Wisconsin

A process-based model for forecasting wave runup along the coast of Georgia

Wave runup is an important nearshore process that impacts total water level, sediment transport, and coastal design. Current methods for forecasting wave runup implement an empirical model that considers offshore wave height, wave period, and generalized beach slope. In this study, the authors generated wave runup forecasts from offshore wave conditions and a system of polynomial equations derived from numerical simulations at three different still water datums for each beach profile. They developed a process-based methodology that incorporated site-specific cross-shore topobathy into the phase-resolving numerical model. A comparison between the system of equations, deterministic hydrodynamic simulations, and observed high-water marks was made using Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) for 12 cases, and it showed that the polynomials were capable of being consistent with the results from full simulation runs, while not requiring hours of runtime when a forecast was needed—the differences between the polynomial and the observed high water marks ranged from 3 to 32 cm for the Irma hindcast and 9–70 cm for Matthew. Then, using forcings from Hurricanes Ian and Nicole (2022), the model predicted the occurrence of dune collision, overwash, and inundation for the coast of Georgia and suggested that wave runup was impacted by the still water level and local topobathy.

Georgia