Editorial: Exploring new frontiers with JGR–Solid Earth
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Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
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Anisotropy, repeating earthquakes, and seismicity associated with the 2008 eruption of Okmok Volcano, Alaska
We use shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis and double-difference relocation to examine temporal variations in seismic properties prior to and accompanying magmatic activity associated with the 2008 eruption of Okmok volcano, Alaska. Using bispectrum cross-correlation, a multiplet of 25 earthquakes is identified spanning five years leading up to the eruption, each event having first motions compatible with a normal fault striking NE–SW. Cross-correlation differential times are used to relocate earthquakes occurring between January 2003 and February 2009. The bulk of the seismicity prior to the onset of the eruption on 12 July 2008 occurred southwest of the caldera beneath a geothermal field. Earthquakes associated with the onset of the eruption occurred beneath the northern portion of the caldera and started as deep as 13 km. Subsequent earthquakes occurred predominantly at 3 km depth, coinciding with the depth at which the magma body has been modeled using geodetic data. Automated SWS analysis of the Okmok catalog reveals radial polarization outside the caldera and a northwest-southeast polarization within. We interpret these polarizations in terms of a magma reservoir near the center of the caldera, which we model with a Mogi point source. SWS analysis using the same input processing parameters for each event in the multiplet reveals no temporal changes in anisotropy over the duration of the multiplet, suggesting either a short-term or small increase in stress just before the eruption that was not detected by GPS, or eruption triggering by a mechanism other than a change of stress in the system.
Alaska↗
Lessons from (triggered) tremor
I test a “clock-advance” model that implies triggered tremor is ambient tremor that occurs at a sped-up rate as a result of loading from passing seismic waves. This proposed model predicts that triggering probability is proportional to the product of the ambient tremor rate and a function describing the efficacy of the triggering wave to initiate a tremor event. Using data mostly from Cascadia, I have compared qualitatively a suite of teleseismic waves that did and did not trigger tremor with ambient tremor rates. Many of the observations are consistent with the model if the efficacy of the triggering wave depends on wave amplitude. One triggered tremor observation clearly violates the clock-advance model. The model prediction that larger triggering waves result in larger triggered tremor signals also appears inconsistent with the measurements. I conclude that the tremor source process is a more complex system than that described by the clock-advance model predictions tested. Results of this and previous studies also demonstrate that (1) conditions suitable for tremor generation exist in many tectonic environments, but, within each, only occur at particular spots whose locations change with time; (2) any fluid flow must be restricted to less than a meter; (3) the degree to which delayed failure and secondary triggering occurs is likely insignificant; and 4) both shear and dilatational deformations may trigger tremor. Triggered and ambient tremor rates correlate more strongly with stress than stressing rate, suggesting tremor sources result from time-dependent weakening processes rather than simple Coulomb failure.
Cascadia↗
Volcano monitoring using GPS: Developing data analysis strategies based on the June 2007 Kīlauea Volcano intrusion and eruption
The global positioning system (GPS) is one of the most common techniques, and the current state of the art, used to monitor volcano deformation. In addition to slow (several centimeters per year) displacement rates, GPS can be used to study eruptions and intrusions that result in much larger (tens of centimeters over hours-days) displacements. It is challenging to resolve precise positions using GPS at subdaily time intervals because of error sources such as multipath and atmospheric refraction. In this paper, the impact of errors due to multipath and atmospheric refraction at subdaily periods is examined using data from the GPS network on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i. Methods for filtering position estimates to enhance precision are both simulated and tested on data collected during the June 2007 intrusion and eruption. Comparisons with tiltmeter records show that GPS instruments can precisely recover the timing of the activity.
Hawai'i↗
Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens
The long‐term behavior of the 2004–2008 effusive eruption of Mount St. Helens was characterized by a gradual decline in the rates of seismicity, dome growth, and broad‐scale ground deformation, but shallow near‐periodic “drumbeat” earthquakes over timescales of minutes indicated episodic short‐term behavior. In part to better characterize this behavior and any associated ground deformation, a network of tiltmeters was installed and recorded thousands of cyclic tilt events within the crater. The duration of these events, from minutes to hours, was too long for them to be directly caused by the drumbeat seismicity. Tilt events were characterized by a recoverable, asymmetric pattern of rapid tilt away from the vent followed by a more gradual reversal, were highly correlated between different tiltmeters in the crater, sometimes occurred in association with volcanic seismicity, and ceased at the end of the eruption. Tilt vectors converged on a point just south of the center of the preexisting 1980s lava dome, and the absence of detectable tilt outside the crater suggests a shallow source (<1 km). We examine several models, including cycles of conduit pressurization and plug slip or gas loss and stick‐slip behavior on the interface between the ascending plug and the 1980s lava dome. The small number of stations within the crater prevents a unique determination of source type or geometry, but results are consistent with a mechanism involving extrusion of the semisolid dacite plug and/or cycles of conduit pressurization.
Washington↗
Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault
The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km 2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by <9 months are unlikely to occur by random chance, suggesting that the multiple short-term stress interactions observed among the recent Gorda zone earthquakes are not an apparent effect. In all well-constrained ≥0.2 bar Coulomb stress interactions between earthquakes that occurred within 4 years of each other, the second earthquake is promoted. On longer timescales, calculated stress changes imparted by the 1980 M w = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.
California↗
Origins of large-volume, compositionally zoned volcanic eruptions: New constraints from U-series isotopes and numerical thermal modeling for the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption
We present the results of a combined U-series isotope and numerical modeling study of the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption in Alaska. A stratigraphically constrained set of samples have compositions that range from basalt through basaltic andesite, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite. The major and trace element range can be modeled by 80–90% closed-system crystal fractionation over a temperature interval from 1279°C to 719°C at 100 MPa, with an implied volume of parental basalt of ∼65 km 3 . Numerical models suggest, for wall rock temperatures appropriate to this depth, that 90% of this volume of magma would cool and crystallize over this temperature interval within a few tens of kiloyears. However, the range in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, ( 230 Th/ 238 U), and ( 226 Ra/ 230 Th) requires open-system processes. Assimilation of the host sediments can replicate the range of Sr isotopes. The variation of ( 226 Ra/ 230 Th) ratios in the basalt to andesite compositional range requires that these were generated less than several thousand years before eruption. Residence times for dacites are close to 8000 years, whereas the rhyolites appear to be 50–200 kyr old. Thus, the magmas that erupted within only 60 h had a wide range of crustal residence times. Nevertheless, they were emplaced in the same thermal regime and evolved along similar liquid lines of descent from parental magmas with similar compositions. The system was built progressively with multiple inputs providing both mass and heat, some of which led to thawing of older silicic material that provided much of the rhyolite.
Alaska↗
Sediment transport under wave groups: Relative importance between nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming
Sediment transport under nonlinear waves in a predominately sheet flow condition is investigated using a two-phase model. Specifically, we study the relative importance between the nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming on cross-shore sand transport. Terms in the governing equations because of the nonlinear boundary layer process are included in this one-dimensional vertical (1DV) model by simplifying the two-dimensional vertical (2DV) ensemble-averaged two-phase equations with the assumption that waves propagate without changing their form. The model is first driven by measured time series of near-bed flow velocity because of a wave group during the SISTEX99 large wave flume experiment and validated with the measured sand concentration in the sheet flow layer. Additional studies are then carried out by including and excluding the nonlinear boundary layer terms. It is found that for the grain diameter (0.24 mm) and high-velocity skewness wave condition considered here, nonlinear waveshape (e.g., skewness) is the dominant mechanism causing net onshore transport and nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect only causes an additional 36% onshore transport. However, for conditions of relatively low-wave skewness and a stronger offshore directed current, nonlinear boundary layer streaming plays a more critical role in determining the net transport. Numerical experiments further suggest that the nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect becomes increasingly important for finer grain. When the numerical model is driven by measured near-bed flow velocity in a more realistic surf zone setting, model results suggest nonlinear boundary layer processes may nearly double the onshore transport purely because of nonlinear waveshape. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
Northern Monterey Bay upwelling shadow front: Observations of a coastally and surface-trapped buoyant plume
During the upwelling season in central California, northwesterly winds along the coast produce a strong upwelling jet that originates at Point A??o Nuevo and flows southward across the mouth of Monterey Bay. A convergent front with a mean temperature change of 3.77 ?? 0.29??C develops between the warm interior waters and the cold offshore upwelling jet. To examine the forcing mechanisms driving the location and movement of the upwelling shadow front and its effects on biological communities in northern Monterey Bay, oceanographic conditions were monitored using cross-shelf mooring arrays, drifters, and hydrographic surveys along a 20 km stretch of coast extending northwestward from Santa Cruz, California, during the upwelling season of 2007 (May-September). The alongshore location of the upwelling shadow front at the northern edge of the bay was driven by: regional wind forcing, through an alongshore pressure gradient; buoyancy forces due to the temperature change across the front; and local wind forcing (the diurnal sea breeze). The upwelling shadow front behaved as a surface-trapped buoyant current, which is superimposed on a poleward barotropic current, moving up and down the coast up to several kilometers each day. We surmise that the front is advected poleward by a preexisting northward barotropic current of 0.10 m s -1 that arises due to an alongshore pressure gradient caused by focused upwelling at Point A??o Nuevo. The frontal circulation (onshore surface currents) breaks the typical two-dimensional wind-driven, cross-shelf circulation (offshore surface currents) and introduces another way for water, and the material it contains (e.g., pollutants, larvae), to go across the shelf toward shore.Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States
Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
Mineralogy and stratigraphy of phyllosilicate-bearing and dark mantling units in the greater Mawrth Vallis/west Arabia Terra area: Constraints on geological origin
Analyses of MRO/CRISM images of the greater Mawrth Vallis region of Mars affirm the presence of two primary phyllosilicate assemblages throughout a region ∼1000 × 1000 km. These two units consist of an Fe/Mg-phyllosilicate assemblage overlain by an Al-phyllosilicate and hydrated silica assemblage. The lower unit contains Fe/Mg-smectites, sometimes combined with one or more of these other Fe/Mg-phyllosilicates: serpentine, chlorite, biotite, and/or vermiculite. It is more than 100 m thick and finely layered at meter scales. The upper unit includes Al-smectite, kaolin group minerals, and hydrated silica. It is tens of meters thick and finely layered as well. A common phyllosilicate stratigraphy and morphology is observed throughout the greater region wherever erosional windows are present. This suggests that the geologic processes forming these units must have occurred on at least a regional scale. Sinuous ridges (interpreted to be inverted channels) and narrow channels cut into the upper clay-bearing unit suggesting that aqueous processes were prevalent after, and possibly during, the deposition of the layered units. We propose that layered units may have been deposited at Mawrth Vallis and then subsequently altered to form the hydrated units. The Fe/Mg-phyllosilicate assemblage is consistent with hydrothermal alteration or pedogenesis of mafic to ultramafic rocks. The Al-phyllosilicate/hydrated silica unit may have formed through alteration of felsic material or via leaching of basaltic material through pedogenic alteration or a mildly acidic environment. These phyllosilicate-bearing units are overlain by a darker, relatively unaltered, and indurated material that has probably experienced a complex geological history.
Journal of Geophysical Research↗
Complexities in barrier island response to sea level rise: Insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks
Using a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an “effective” barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e.g., previous slopes, sediment budgets, etc.) in determining migration trajectories and therefore how a barrier island will respond to sea level rise. Although simple analytical calculations may predict barrier response in simplified coastal environments (e.g., constant slope, constant sea level rise rate, etc.), our model experiments demonstrate that morphological-behavior modeling is necessary to provide critical insights regarding changes that may occur in environments having complex geometries, especially when multiple parameters change simultaneously.
North Carolina↗
A rain splash transport equation assimilating field and laboratory measurements
Process-based models of hillslope evolution require transport equations relating sediment flux to its major controls. An equation for rain splash transport in the absence of overland flow was constructed by modifying an approach developed by Reeve (1982) and parameterizing it with measurements from single-drop laboratory experiments and simulated rainfall on a grassland in East Africa. The equation relates rain splash to hillslope gradient, the median raindrop diameter of a storm, and ground cover density; the effect of soil texture on detachability can be incorporated from other published results. The spatial and temporal applicability of such an equation for rain splash transport in the absence of overland flow on uncultivated hillslopes can be estimated from hydrological calculations. The predicted transport is lower than landscape-averaged geologic erosion rates from Kenya but is large enough to modify short, slowly eroding natural hillslopes as well as microtopographic interrill surfaces between which overland flow transports the mobilized sediment. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration
Shallow rainfall-induced landslides commonly occur under conditions of transient infiltration into initially unsaturated soils. In an effort to predict the timing and location of such landslides, we developed a model of the infiltration process using a two-layer system that consists of an unsaturated zone above a saturated zone and implemented this model in a geographic information system (GIS) framework. The model links analytical solutions for transient, unsaturated, vertical infiltration above the water table to pressure-diffusion solutions for pressure changes below the water table. The solutions are coupled through a transient water table that rises as water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone. This scheme, though limited to simplified soil-water characteristics and moist initial conditions, greatly improves computational efficiency over numerical models in spatially distributed modeling applications. Pore pressures computed by these coupled models are subsequently used in one-dimensional slope-stability computations to estimate the timing and locations of slope failures. Applied over a digital landscape near Seattle, Washington, for an hourly rainfall history known to trigger shallow landslides, the model computes a factor of safety for each grid cell at any time during a rainstorm. The unsaturated layer attenuates and delays the rainfall-induced pore-pressure response of the model at depth, consistent with observations at an instrumented hillside near Edmonds, Washington. This attenuation results in realistic estimates of timing for the onset of slope instability (7 h earlier than observed landslides, on average). By considering the spatial distribution of physical properties, the model predicts the primary source areas of landslides.
Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
Flow structures and sandbar dynamics in a canyon river during a controlled flood, Colorado River, Arizona
In canyon rivers, debris fan constrictions create rapids and downstream pools characterized by secondary flow structures that are closely linked to channel morphology. In this paper we describe detailed measurements of the three‐dimensional flow structure and sandbar dynamics of two pools along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon during a controlled flood release from Glen Canyon Dam. Results indicate that the pools are characterized by large lateral recirculation zones (eddies) resulting from flow separation downstream from the channel constrictions, as well as helical flow structures in the main channel and eddy. The lateral recirculation zones are low‐velocity areas conducive to fine sediment deposition, particularly in the vicinity of the separation and reattachment points and are thus the dominant flow structures controlling sandbar dynamics. The helical flow structures also affect morphology but appear secondary in importance to the lateral eddies. During the controlled flood, sandbars in the separation and reattachment zones at both sites tended to build gradually during the rising limb and peak flow. Deposition in shallow water on the sandbars was accompanied by erosion in deeper water along the sandbar slope at the interface with the main channel. Erosion occurred via rapid mass failures as well as by gradual boundary shear stress driven processes. The flow structures and morphologic links at our study sites are similar to those identified in other river environments, in particular sharply curved meanders and channel confluences where the coexistence of lateral recirculation and helical flows has been documented.
Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
A universal approximation to grain size from images of non-cohesive sediment
The two-dimensional spectral decomposition of an image of sediment provides a direct statistical estimate, grid-by-number style, of the mean of all intermediate axes of all single particles within the image. We develop and test this new method which, unlike existing techniques, requires neither image processing algorithms for detection and measurement of individual grains, nor calibration. The only information required of the operator is the spatial resolution of the image. The method is tested with images of bed sediment from nine different sedimentary environments (five beaches, three rivers, and one continental shelf), across the range 0.1 mm to 150 mm, taken in air and underwater. Each population was photographed using a different camera and lighting conditions. We term it a “universal approximation” because it has produced accurate estimates for all populations we have tested it with, without calibration. We use three approaches (theory, computational experiments, and physical experiments) to both understand and explore the sensitivities and limits of this new method. Based on 443 samples, the root-mean-squared (RMS) error between size estimates from the new method and known mean grain size (obtained from point counts on the image) was found to be ±≈16%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±31% of the true mean grain size (measured in a linear scale). The RMS error reduces to ≈11%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±20% of the true mean grain size if point counts from a few images are used to correct bias for a specific population of sediment images. It thus appears it is transferable between sedimentary populations with different grain size, but factors such as particle shape and packing may introduce bias which may need to be calibrated for. For the first time, an attempt has been made to mathematically relate the spatial distribution of pixel intensity within the image of sediment to the grain size.
Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
The perfect debris flow? Aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments
Aggregation of data collected in 28 controlled experiments reveals reproducible debris-flow behavior that provides a clear target for model tests. In each experiment ∼10 m 3 of unsorted, water-saturated sediment composed mostly of sand and gravel discharged from behind a gate, descended a steep, 95-m flume, and formed a deposit on a nearly horizontal runout surface. Experiment subsets were distinguished by differing basal boundary conditions (1 versus 16 mm roughness heights) and sediment mud contents (1 versus 7 percent dry weight). Sensor measurements of evolving flow thicknesses, basal normal stresses, and basal pore fluid pressures demonstrate that debris flows in all subsets developed dilated, coarse-grained, high-friction snouts, followed by bodies of nearly liquefied, finer-grained debris. Mud enhanced flow mobility by maintaining high pore pressures in flow bodies, and bed roughness reduced flow speeds but not distances of flow runout. Roughness had these effects because it promoted debris agitation and grain-size segregation, and thereby aided growth of lateral levees that channelized flow. Grain-size segregation also contributed to development of ubiquitous roll waves, which had diverse amplitudes exhibiting fractal number-size distributions. Despite the influence of these waves and other sources of dispersion, the aggregated data have well-defined patterns that help constrain individual terms in a depth-averaged debris-flow model. The patterns imply that local flow resistance evolved together with global flow dynamics, contradicting the hypothesis that any consistent rheology applied. We infer that new evolution equations, not new rheologies, are needed to explain how characteristic debris-flow behavior emerges from the interactions of debris constituents.
Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
Iceberg calving as a primary source of regional‐scale glacier‐generated seismicity in the St. Elias Mountains, Alaska
Since the installation of the Alaska Regional Seismic Network in the 1970s, data analysts have noted nontectonic seismic events thought to be related to glacier dynamics. While loose associations with the glaciers of the St. Elias Mountains have been made, no detailed study of the source locations has been undertaken. We performed a two-step investigation surrounding these events, beginning with manual locations that guided an automated detection and event sifting routine. Results from the manual investigation highlight characteristics of the seismic waveforms including single-peaked (narrowband) spectra, emergent onsets, lack of distinct phase arrivals, and a predominant cluster of locations near the calving termini of several neighboring tidewater glaciers. Through these locations, comparison with previous work, analyses of waveform characteristics, frequency-magnitude statistics and temporal patterns in seismicity, we suggest calving as a source for the seismicity. Statistical properties and time series analysis of the event catalog suggest a scale-invariant process that has no single or simple forcing. These results support the idea that calving is often a response to short-lived or localized stress perturbations. Our results demonstrate the utility of passive seismic instrumentation to monitor relative changes in the rate and magnitude of iceberg calving at tidewater glaciers that may be volatile or susceptible to ensuing rapid retreat, especially when existing seismic infrastructure can be used.
Alaska↗