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Magnitude and frequency of floods in the Coastal Plain region of Louisiana, 2016

To improve flood-frequency estimates for rural streams in the Coastal Plain region of Louisiana, generalized least-squares regression techniques were used to relate corresponding annual exceedance probability streamflows for 211 streamgages in the region to a suite of explanatory variables that include physical, climatic, pedologic, and land-use characteristics of the streamgage drainage area. The resulting generalized least-squares models can be used to estimate selected annual exceedance probability streamflows for rural ungaged locations in the Coastal Plain region of Louisiana. For the 211 streamgages in the Coastal Plain region of Louisiana and surrounding States, annual peak-streamflow data available through the 2016 water year were used in this study. Two unique flood regions, the Mississippi Alluvial Plain and Coastal Plain, were identified as separate hydrologic regions based on statistical evaluation and significance of categorical variables representing the regions regressed against the 1-percent annual exceedance probability streamflow (the 100-year flood). Regional regression equations for estimating annual exceedance probability streamflow for the Mississippi Alluvial Plain region have been previously published; therefore, the purpose of this study was to generate updated regional regression equations for the Coastal Plain region of Louisiana. The final regression models used drainage area and channel slope as explanatory variables based on performance metrics.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Geohydrology of the High Plains Aquifer, western Kansas

The High Plains aquifer underlies 174,050 sq mi of eight states (Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming) and contains approximately 3.3 billion acre-ft of water in storage. Saturated thicknesses within the aquifer are as great as 600 ft near the southern border of southwest Kansas. The aquifer is replenished primarily by infiltration from precipitation. Average precipitation at the Garden City Experiment Station is 18.93 in/yr. Groundwater flow is generally from west to east under unconfined conditions. Hydraulic connection with subcropping consolidated aquifers allows ground water to flow vertically in minor quantities. The aquifer is depleted primarily by irrigation. Hydraulic conductivity estimates from 1,612 lithologic logs had an average value of 75 ft/day, with a standard deviation of 35 ft/day. Specific yields estimated from the same lithologic logs had a mean of 0.17 and a standard deviation of 0.047. Water from the High Plains aquifer in Kansas generally is suitable for human and animal consumption and irrigation of crops. Typically, it is a calcium bicarbonate type water, with concentrations of total dissolved solids ranging from 250 to 500 mg/L. The quality of water in the aquifer deteriorates toward the east due to mixing with recharge water containing dissolved minerals leached from the overlying soil and unsaturated zones and mineralized water from adjacent bedrock units. The simulated water budget for the steady state model of predevelopment (pre-1950) conditions in the High Plains aquifer in northwest Kansas showed that annual recharge to the aquifer from infiltration of precipitation was 87,000 acre-ft/yr and from boundary inflow, 21,000 acre-ft/yr. Annual discharge from the aquifer was 108,000 acre-ft/yr, including 81,000 acre-ft/yr from leakage to streams, 23,000 acre-ft from outflow at the boundaries of the aquifer, and 4,000 acre-ft from municipal and industrial pumpage. (Lantz-PTT)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates at defined frequencies and durations for nontidal streams in Delaware

Reliable estimates of the magnitude of peak flows in streams are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water conveyance structures. In addition, reliable estimates of the magnitude of low flows at defined frequencies and durations are needed for meeting regulatory requirements, quantifying base flows in streams and rivers, and evaluating time of travel and dilution of toxic spills. This report, in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation and the Delaware Geological Survey, presents methods for estimating the magnitude of peak flows and low flows at defined frequencies and durations on nontidal streams in Delaware, at locations both monitored by streamflow-gage sites and ungaged. Methods are presented for estimating (1) the magnitude of peak flows for return periods ranging from 2 to 500 years (50-percent to 0.2-percent annual-exceedance probability), and (2) the magnitude of low flows as applied to 7-, 14-, and 30-consecutive day low-flow periods with recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 20 years (50-, 10-, and 5-percent annual non-exceedance probabilities). These methods are applicable to watersheds that exhibit a full range of development conditions in Delaware. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that allows users to easily obtain peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for user-selected locations in Delaware. Peak-flow and low-flow magnitude estimates for ungaged sites are obtained using statistical regression analysis through a process known as regionalization, where information from a group of streamflow-gage sites within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the same region. Ninety-four streamflow-gage sites in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of nonregulated annual peak-flow data were used for the peak-flow regression analysis, a subset of the 121 sites for which peak-flow estimates were computed. These sites included both continuous-record streamflow-gage sites as well as partial record sites. Forty-five streamflow-gage sites with at least 10 years of nonregulated low-flow data available were used for the low-flow regression analyses, a subset of the 68 sites for which low-flow estimates were computed. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates using the recent Bulletin 17C guidelines that incorporate the Expected Moments Algorithm with (2) regional estimates of peak-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations and regional skew derived from sites with records greater than or equal to 35 years. Example peak-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Estimates for low-flow gaged sites are obtained by combining (1) the station low-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and low-flow estimates with (2) regional estimates of low-flow magnitude derived from regional regression equations. Example low-flow estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged sites, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. A total of 54 sites in the Coastal Plain region were used to develop peak-flow regressions for the region and 40 sites were used for the Piedmont region. Similarly, 24 sites were used for low-flow regression equation development in the Coastal Plain, with 21 in the Piedmont. Peak and low-flow site inclusion in the Coastal Plain tended to be more restricted with tidal influence and ranges of basin characteristics, including drainage area, limiting regression equation development and application. Regional regression equations for peak flows and low flows, as applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces in Delaware, are presented. Peak-flow regression equations used variables that quantified drainage area, basin slope, percent area with well-drained soils, percent area with poorly drained soils, impervious area, and percent area of surface water storage in estimating peak-flow estimates, whereas low-flow regression equations used only drainage area and percent poorly drained soils in the estimation of low flows. Average standard errors for peak-flow regressions tended to be lower than those for low- flow regressions, with lower errors in the Piedmont region for both peak- and low-flow regressions. For peak-flow estimates, a sensitivity analysis of Piedmont regression equation estimates to changes in impervious area is also presented. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are discussed, including (1) the availability and description of 32 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites and inclusion in or exclusion from the regional analysis; (3) regional skew analysis and determination of regression regions; (4) sample adjustments and removal of sites owing to regulation and redundancy; and (5) a brief comparison of peak- and low-flow estimates at gages used in previous studies.

Delaware↗

Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Breeding Site and Territory Summary - 2007

The Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus; hereafter references to willow flycatcher and flycatcher refer to E.t. extimus, except where specifically noted) is an endangered bird that breeds only in dense riparian habitats in parts of six Southwestern states (Arizona, New Mexico, southern California, extreme southern Nevada, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado). Since 1993, hundreds of Southwestern willow flycatcher surveys have been conducted each year, and many new flycatcher breeding sites located. This document synthesizes the most current information available on all known Southwestern willow flycatcher breeding sites. This rangewide data synthesis was designed to meet two objectives: (1) identify all known Southwestern willow flycatcher breeding sites and (2) assemble data to estimate population size, location, habitat, and other information for all breeding sites, for as many years as possible, from 1993 through 2007. This report provides data summaries in terms of the number of flycatcher sites and the number of territories. When interpreting and using this information, it must be kept in mind that a 'site' is a geographic location where one or more willow flycatchers establishes a territory. Sites with unpaired territorial males are considered breeding sites, even if no nesting attempts were documented. A site is often a discrete patch of riparian habitat but may also be a cluster of riparian patches; there is no standardized definition for site, and its use varies within and among states. For example, five occupied habitat patches along a 10-km stretch of river might be considered five different sites in one state but only a single site in another state. This lack of standardization makes comparisons based on site numbers problematic. Researchers for this report generally deferred to statewide summary documents or to local managers and researchers when delineating a site for inclusion in the database. However, to avoid inflating the number of sites and to establish more consistent definitions of the term 'site', adjacent and nearby sites from statewide reports were sometimes considered as a single site for the purposes of the rangewide data summary. Any combining or splitting of sites at the rangewide level was done on a case-by-case basis. Because of differences in site definitions, one should not evaluate the relative importance of a geographic region (such as drainage, watershed, or state) simply according to the number of flycatcher sites. A 'territory' is an exclusive defended area within a breeding site. Although detailed monitoring studies have identified unpaired territorial males and polygynous males at some flycatcher breeding sites, for the purposes of this report a territory is equivalent to the exclusive breeding area of a pair of flycatchers. In general, the concept of territory is more similar among states and different investigators than site; thus, it is a more robust unit to use for summaries and comparisons. However, note that the definition of a polygynous territory is not consistent among states; a male polygynously paired with two females would be considered one territory in some states and two territories in other states. For each site, we referred to reports or spoke directly with researchers and managers to gather information such as management entity/agency, location (state, drainage, elevation), gross habitat type (native, exotic, or mixed; dominant tree species), and number of flycatcher territories. Synthesizing the information on more than 200 breeding sites is challenging because annual data-collection and survey-reporting requirements are not standardized rangewide, and the nature and degree of readily available information varies widely from state to state. This is particularly true for areas such as California, where there are many flycatcher sites but surveyors are not required to submit standardized flycatcher survey forms. The lack of c

Open-File Report↗

Water resources of part of Canyonlands National Park, southeastern Utah

Canyonlands National Park is in about the center of the Canyon Lands section of the Colorado Plateaus physiographic province in southeastern Utah. The part of the park discussed embraces an area of about 400 square miles comprising isolated mesas, precipitous canyons, and dissected broad benches near the confluence of the Green and Colorado Rivers, the only perennial streams in the area. The climate is arid to semiarid; normal annual precipitation ranges from less than 8 to about 10 inches. Potential evapotranspiration is about 41 inches annually. Geology of the park is characterized by nearly horizontal strata that dip gently northward. Exposed rock formations and deposits range in age from Middle Pennsylvanian to Holocene. Owing to the elevated and deeply dissected topography, only parts of the Cedar Mesa and White Rim Sandstone Members of the Cutler Formation of Permian age have potential for development of wells. Strata above and below them support only small springs, are dry, or contain brine. In the northwest part of the park, the Green River at Taylor Canyon is a potential source of surface water for public supplies for the Island In The Sky area and a small part of the northwest White Rim area. It will require filtration and treatment before use. In the same area, two unused wells in Taylor Canyon will supply enough water for present requirements from the White Rim Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation, about 140 gallons per minute combined, but yield mineralized water that will require treatment before use. Springs yielding good water at the Island In The Sky and White Rim are mostly intermittent and too small for public-water supply. Most of the White Rim area is dry, having no usable ground water. In The Needles area, wells provide water of good quality from the Cedar Mesa Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation. Springs yielding good water in the same area are available for supplementary supplies. West of The Needles, The Grabens area is without springs or potential aquifers bearing usable water. During 1970 about 510,000 gallons of water was used in Canyonlands National Park. Of this amount, 110,000 gallons was supplied to Island In The Sky by tank truck from a source outside the park, and about 400,000 gallons was withdrawn from the well in use at The Needles. Estimated total annual requirements in 10 years (1980) may be as much as 6 million gallons. Sources of water supplies within the park now in use and potential sources of surface water or ground water outlined by this investigation will meet the estimated requirements. Development of rainfall-collection and cistern-storage systems could furnish small emergency sources of water for waterless areas on the White Rim and in The Grabens.

Utah↗

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Not putting all their eggs in one basket: bet-hedging despite extraordinary annual reproductive output of desert tortoises

Bet-hedging theory makes the counter-intuitive prediction that, if juvenile survival is low and unpredictable, organisms should consistently reduce short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure in the long-term. We investigated the long-term reproductive output of an Agassiz's desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) population and conformance to a bet-hedging strategy of reproduction in an unpredictable but comparatively productive environment. Most females reproduced every year, even during periods of low precipitation and poor germination of food plants, and the mean percentage of reproducing females did not differ significantly on an annual basis. Although mean annual egg production (clutch size × clutch frequency) differed significantly among years, mean clutch size and mean clutch frequency remained relatively constant. During an El Niño year, mean annual egg production and mean annual clutch frequency were the highest ever reported for this species. Annual egg production was positively influenced by maternal body size but clutch size and clutch frequency were not. Our long-term results confirm earlier conclusions based on short-term research that desert tortoises have a bet-hedging strategy of producing small clutches almost every year. The risk of long-term reproductive failure is minimized in unpredictable environments, both through time by annually producing multiple small clutches over a long reproductive lifespan, even in years of low resource availability, and through space by depositing multiple annual clutches in different locations. The extraordinary annual reproductive output of this population appears to be the result of a typically high but unpredictable biomass of annual food plants at the site relative to tortoise habitat in dryer regions. Under the comparatively productive but unpredictable conditions, tortoises conform to predictions of a bet-hedging strategy of reproduction with relatively small but consistent clutch sizes.

Biological Journal of the Linnean Society↗

Surface-Water Quality and Nutrient Loads in the Nepaug Reservoir Watershed, Northwestern Connecticut, 1999-2001

Water quality was characterized at three tributary watersheds to the Nepaug Reservoir-Nepaug River, Phelps Brook, and Clear Brook-from October 1998 through September 2001 to document existing water-quality conditions and evaluate potential future effects of the removal of sand and gravel from areas of the watershed. Some removal operations may include removal of vegetation and top soil and steepening of slopes. Routine water samples collected monthly in all three watersheds were analyzed for nutrients, organic carbon, major ions, and fecal indicator bacteria. Results of the analyses indicate that, in general, the water quality in all three tributary watersheds is good and meets standards established for drinking-water supplies for nitrate, but does not always meet contact-recreation standards for bacteria. Median concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon were highest in the routine monthly samples from Phelps Brook and lowest from Clear Brook. Samples also were collected during selected storms to examine changes in concentrations of nutrients during periods of high streamflow. The maximum values measured for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon were in storm samples from Clear Brook. The Nepaug River watershed delivered the largest loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon to the reservoir. Yields of nutrients and organic carbon differed significantly from year to year and among the three watersheds. Yields of total nitrogen and total organic carbon were largest from Phelps Brook and smallest from Clear Brook. The yields of total phosphorus were largest from Nepaug River and smallest from Phelps Brook. In comparison to other watersheds in Connecticut, annual loads and yields from the three streams were lower than those of developed urban areas and comparable to those of other rural and forested basins. Delivery of nutrients and organic carbon to the reservoir took place mostly during the spring with the exception of those constituents delivered during Tropical Storm Floyd, a large fall storm.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Development and Application of Regression Models for Estimating Nutrient Concentrations in Streams of the Conterminous United States, 1992-2001

Data collected for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment program from 1992-2001 were used to investigate the relations between nutrient concentrations and nutrient sources, hydrology, and basin characteristics. Regression models were developed to estimate annual flow-weighted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus using explanatory variables derived from currently available national ancillary data. Different total-nitrogen regression models were used for agricultural (25 percent or more of basin area classified as agricultural land use) and nonagricultural basins. Atmospheric, fertilizer, and manure inputs of nitrogen, percent sand in soil, subsurface drainage, overland flow, mean annual precipitation, and percent undeveloped area were significant variables in the agricultural basin total nitrogen model. Significant explanatory variables in the nonagricultural total nitrogen model were total nonpoint-source nitrogen input (sum of nitrogen from manure, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition), population density, mean annual runoff, and percent base flow. The concentrations of nutrients derived from regression (CONDOR) models were applied to drainage basins associated with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) River Reach File (RF1) to predict flow-weighted mean annual total nitrogen concentrations for the conterminous United States. The majority of stream miles in the Nation have predicted concentrations less than 5 milligrams per liter. Concentrations greater than 5 milligrams per liter were predicted for a broad area extending from Ohio to eastern Nebraska, areas spatially associated with greater application of fertilizer and manure. Probabilities that mean annual total-nitrogen concentrations exceed the USEPA regional nutrient criteria were determined by incorporating model prediction uncertainty. In all nutrient regions where criteria have been established, there is at least a 50 percent probability of exceeding the criteria in more than half of the stream miles. Dividing calibration sites into agricultural and nonagricultural groups did not improve the explanatory capability for total phosphorus models. The group of explanatory variables that yielded the lowest model error for mean annual total phosphorus concentrations includes phosphorus input from manure, population density, amounts of range land and forest land, percent sand in soil, and percent base flow. However, the large unexplained variability and associated model error precluded the use of the total phosphorus model for nationwide extrapolations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Suspended-sediment loads and reservoir sediment trap efficiency for Clinton Lake, Kansas, 2010-12

Continuous streamflow and turbidity data collected from October 1, 2010, to September 30, 2012, at a site upstream and downstream from Clinton Lake, Kansas, were used to compute the total suspended-sediment load delivered to and released from the reservoir as well as the sediment trap efficiency for the reservoir. Ongoing sedimentation is inhibiting the ability of Clinton Lake to serve several purposes including flood control, water supply, and recreation. The inflow suspended-sediment load was substantially larger than the outflow load and most of the suspended-sediment load was delivered during short-term, high-discharge periods. Respectively, the total 2-year inflow and outflow suspended-sediment loads were computed to be 44.4 and 1.49 million pounds. Sediment trap efficiency for the reservoir was estimated to be 97 percent. The mean annual suspended-sediment yield from the upstream basin was estimated to be 60,500 pounds per square mile. Because this study was completed during a drought, the estimated inflow suspended-sediment load and suspended-sediment yield likely are substantially less than what would occur during a period of average or above average precipitation and runoff.

Kansas↗

Shoreline erosion at selected areas along Lake Sharpe on the Lower Brule Reservation in South Dakota, 1966–2015

The Lower Brule Reservation in central South Dakota is losing land because of shoreline erosion along Lake Sharpe, a reservoir on the Missouri River, which has caused detrimental effects for the Lower Brule Sioux Tribe including losses of cultural sites, recreation access points, wildlife habitat, irrigated cropland, and landmass. To better understand and quantify shoreline erosion, the Lower Brule Sioux Tribe and the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated on a series of data-collection efforts and study of shoreline erosion along Lake Sharpe. Data collected or compiled for 1966–2015 were used to describe and quantify shoreline erosion along Lake Sharpe. The progression of shoreline erosion near the community of Lower Brule, South Dakota, was tracked by comparing current or recent aerial imagery with existing historical maps. At 33 evaluation lines along a 7-mile reach of Lake Sharpe shoreline near Lower Brule, cumulative change of shoreline from 1966 to 2010 ranged from about −224 feet of deposition to 770 feet of erosion. Photographic and location data were collected for this study to understand the processes affecting erosion and estimate erosion rates. Photographs were collected only in the 7-mile reach near Lower Brule, but locations of the bank over time were collected at the 7-mile reach and two additional reaches within the Lower Brule Reservation. Global navigation satellite system equipment was used in real-time kinematic mode to collect bank locations along three reaches of interest. Reach-length data were collected four times between November 2011 and November 2012. A small, unmanned aerial system (drone) was used to capture digital video along the shoreline of the 7-mile reach. Water-level fluctuations contribute to the number of wet-dry cycles experienced by the soils at the shoreline or bank. The soils present under the current (2017) location of the reservoir are predominantly terrace alluvium, consisting of sand and silt. Detailed soils data for Lyman County indicate that the dominant soil type along the southern part of the shoreline in the 7-mile reach is Bullcreek clay. Weather within the study area can affect the erosion rate. Air temperature can potentially affect erosion rates by freezing and thawing water and soils. Mean hourly wind speeds vary somewhat throughout the year but averaged 13.3 miles per hour. The direction of prevailing winds near Lower Brule indicates that there are several miles of fetch to build large waves. Annual erosion rates calculated or measured throughout this study varied by location. Long-term annual average erosion rates of the 7-mile reach, as calculated by image analysis, ranged from −5.1 feet per year (deposition) to 17.5 feet per year (erosion). Short-term annual erosion rates measured using global navigation satellite system equipment during 2010–12 ranged from about 0 to 31.7 feet per year for the 7-mile reach. Existing scour countermeasures have been effective variably. Fieldstone rip-rap seems to have stabilized the shoreline, whereas tree strips paralleling the shoreline seem to have slowed erosion.

South Dakota↗

Precipitation depth-duration and frequency characteristics for Antelope Valley, Mojave Desert, California

Methods to evaluate changes in the volume of storm runoff from drainage basins that are likely to be urbanized are needed by land-use planning agencies to establish criteria for the design of flood-control systems. To document the changes in runoff volume of basins that may be urbanized, nine small basins that are considered representative of varying hydrologic conditions in Antelope Valley, California, were selected for detailed study. Precipitation and stream-gaging stations were established and data were collected for the period 1990-93. The data collected at these U.S. Geological Survey stations were supplemented by data collected at 35 Long-term precipitation stations operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works. These data will be used to calibrate and verify rainfall-runoff models for the nine basins. Results of the model runs will then be used as a guide for estimating basin runoff characteristics throughout Antelope Valley. Annual precipitation in Antelope Valley ranges from more than 20 inches in the mountains to less than 4 inches on the valley floor. Most precipitation in the valley falls during the months of December through March, but cyclonic storms in the fall and convectional storms in the summer sometimes occur. The duration of most storms ranges from 1 to 8 days, but most of the precipitation usually occurs within the first 2 days. Many parts of the valley have been affected by storms with precipitation depths that equal or exceed 0.60 inch per hour. The storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense storms of record, with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years in some parts of the valley. Depth-duration ratios were calculated by disaggregating daily total precipitation data for intervals of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 18 hours for storms that occurred during 1990-93. The hourly total precipitation data were then disaggregated at 5-minute intervals. A comparison of the depth-duration data collected during 1990-93 at the Geological Survey stations with the data collected at the other stations indicated that the 1990-93 data are not representative of historical storms. Therefore, depth-duration ratios developed using these data should be considered preliminary for use in disaggregating the historical hourly data for Antelope Valley. Annual maximum 24-hour precipitation records were used to calculate precipitation depth-frequency relations for 23 stations in the valley using the log Pearson type III distribution. These calculations indicate that the storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense of record in the valley with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water Budget for the Iao Area, Island of Maui, Hawaii

Ground-water recharge is estimated as the residual component of a monthly water budget calculated using soil characteristics and long-term average rainfall, streamflow, irrigation, and pan-evaporation data. The water-budget components of rainfall, direct runoff, evapotranspiration, and ground-water recharge are defined seasonally, through the use of monthly data, and spatially by land-use and geohydrologic areas, through the use of a geographic information system model. The long-term average ground-water recharge for the Iao area was estimated for four scenarios using natural land-use, and using 1926-79, 1980-85, and 1986-95 land-use and irrigation data. The recharge rate for natural conditions is 34 million gallons per day, which is 34 percent of rainfall. The average annual ground-water recharge rate for 1926-79 conditions is 51 million gallons per day, which is 41 percent of the sum of rainfall and irrigation. The recharge rates for 1980-85 and 1986-95 conditions are 40 and 36 million gallons per day, which are 37 and 35 percent of rainfall plus irrigation, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-coal-mined basins in Fayette County, Pennsylvania

The Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-mined basins of Fayette County, Pa. Hydrologic data from the Stony Fork Basin (0.93 square miles) was used to calibrate HSPF parameters. The calibrated parameters were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin (8.83 square miles) to evaluate the transfer value of model parameters. The results of this investigation provide information to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, regarding the value of the simulated hydrologic data for use in cumulative hydrologic-impact assessments of surface-mined basins. The calibration period was October 1, 1985, through September 30, 1988 (water years 1986-88). The simulated data were representative of the observed data from the Stony Fork Basin. Mean simulated streamflow was 1.64 cubic feet per second compared to measured streamflow of 1.58 cubic feet per second for the 3-year period. The difference between the observed and simulated peak stormflow ranged from 4.0 to 59.7 percent for 12 storms. The simulated sediment load for the 1987 water year was 127.14 tons (0.21 ton per acre), which compares to a measured sediment load of 147.09 tons (0.25 ton per acre). The total simulated suspended-sediment load for the 3-year period was 538.2 tons (0.30 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 467.61 tons (0.26 ton per acre per year). The model was verified by comparing observed and simulated data from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 1989. The results obtained were comparable to those from the calibration period. The simulated mean daily discharge was representative of the range of data observed from the basin and of the frequency with which specific discharges were equalled or exceeded. The calibrated and verified parameters from the Stony Fork model were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin. The two basins are in a similar physical setting. Data from October 1, 1987, through September 30, 1989, were used to evaluate the Poplar Run model. In general, the results from the Poplar Run model were comparable to those obtained from the Stony Fork model. The difference between observed and simulated total streamflow was 1.1 percent for the 2-year period. The mean annual streamflow simulated by the Poplar Run model was 18.3 cubic feet per second. This compares to an observed streamflow of 18.15 cubic feet per second. For the 2-year period, the simulated sediment load was 2,754 tons (0.24 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 3,051.2 tons (0.27 ton per acre per year) for the Poplar Run Basin. Cumulative frequency-distribution curves of the observed and simulated streamflow compared well. The comparison between observed and simulated data improved as the time span increased. Simulated annual means and totals were more representative of the observed data than hourly data used in comparing storm events. The structure and organization of the HSPF model facilitated the simulation of a wide range of hydrologic processes. The simulation results from this investigation indicate that model parameters may be transferred to ungaged basins to generate representative hydrologic data through modeling techniques.

Pennsylvania↗

Estimates of groundwater recharge rates and sources in the East Mountain area, Eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2005-12

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, has conducted a monitoring program in the East Mountain area of eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, since 2000 to better define the hydrogeologic characteristics of the East Mountain area and to provide scientific information that will assist in the sustainable management of water resources. This report presents estimates of groundwater recharge to the aquifers that supply water to a network of springs that discharged within the East Mountain area of eastern Bernalillo County during 2005–12. Chloride concentration, the mass ratio of chloride to bromide, and the stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen were used to estimate annual groundwater recharge rates and to identify the sources and timing of recharge to the aquifers in the East Mountain area. Groundwater recharge rates were estimated by using a chloride mass-balance (CMB) method applied to data from selected springs located in the study area. Eleven springs and four downgradient monitoring wells were sampled for this study. On the basis of chloride concentrations and the mass ratio of chloride to bromide, eight of the eleven sampled springs are considered representative of dilute groundwater recharged by meteoric water in the Sandia Mountains. Eight of the eleven springs sampled as part of this investigation are considered representative of dilute groundwater not influenced by nonmeteoric chloride sources on the basis of analysis of chloride concentrations and the mass ratio of chloride to bromide. Chloride concentrations at three of the sampled springs were likely affected by nonmeteoric chloride sources. Results of CMB calculations for the eight springs with Cl:Br ratios and chloride concentrations within the range of dilute groundwater (not influenced by nonmeteoric chloride sources) indicated that between about 5.5 and 23 percent of annual precipitation recharges the groundwater system. The variation in estimated recharge rates indicated that the mechanisms for recharge and groundwater movement in the East Mountain area are complex and that factors such as climate variability, the extent and interconnection of structural features such as faults and fractures, and potential solution enhancement of the aquifers all play important roles in the rates and timing of recharge. Stable isotope data from springs and snowpacks sampled in the East Mountain area were compared with local, regional, and global meteoric water lines and were analyzed along with values representing the stable isotope composition of winter precipitation and summer monsoonal rains. Results of the stable isotope analysis from springs in this study suggested that winter precipitation is the primary source of groundwater recharge to the aquifers supplying the springs, but there is a component of more isotopically enriched precipitation being recharged as well, likely from summer monsoonal rains. Specific conductance, groundwater-level hydrographs, snowpack chemistry, and snow-water equivalent data were used to inform the analyses and corroborate the findings of the CMB and stable isotope results.

New Mexico↗

Evaluation of recommended revisions to Bulletin 17B

For the past 36 years, Bulletin 17B, published by the Interagency Committee on Water Data in 1982, has guided flood-frequency analyses in the United States. During this period, much has been learned about both hydrology and statistical methods. In keeping with the tradition of periodically updating the Bulletin 17B guidelines in light of advances in our understanding and methods, the Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) was charged by the Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH) of the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI) to consider possible updates to Bulletin 17B. The purpose of this report is to consider the statistical performance of possible revisions to Bulletin 17B procedures. Of particular interest are procedures designed to accommodate more general forms of flood information. The concern is how the proposed procedures would affect the precision, accuracy and robustness of flood-frequency estimates. The investigations reported here focus on techniques for the following: incorporating information related to historical flooding that occurred outside the period of systematic streamgaging; and identification of potentially influential low floods (PILFs). The proposed changes, which mostly involve generalizing Bulletin 17B’s method-of-moments procedures by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), are relatively modest, at least in the sense that they would not affect the main features of Bulletin 17B. The proposed methods include the following: continued use of the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution; continued use of the Method-of-Moments fitting method applied to the logarithms of annual-peak-flow data; and a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test used in Bulletin 17B to identify low outliers. The new multiple Grubbs-Beck test is sensitive to multiple PILFs. The hydrological literature already provides extensive support for the theory behind the proposed changes. The remaining question is practical: How well do the proposed methods perform under typical and realistic conditions and, specifically, with difficult records occasionally encountered in practice? In order to answer these questions, the HFAWG commissioned the work reported here. The following four major sets of results are provided: Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from simulated LP3 populations; Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from non-LP3 populations that were selected to reflect likely deviations of flood series from LP3 distributions, based on the experience of HFAWG members; a direct comparison of the fitted LP3 distributions for 82 real “test sites” identified by an independent data group as both “typical” and “challenging” for flood-frequency estimation; and simulations of fitting procedures using records obtained by resampling with replacement from the longest of the 82 test-site records. Collectively, these studies provide a reasonably comprehensive, valid, and robust assessment of the properties of the Bulletin 17B methods and proposed alternatives. The experiments and analysis indicate that the flood quantile estimators, proposed as a revision of Bulletin 17B, do the following: perform generally as well as, and in some cases much better than, Bulletin 17B estimators in terms of the mean square error of flood quantiles estimates; allow for incorporation and efficient statistical treatment of broader classes of flood-frequency data and information, including historical information, binomial data and interval data; and generally confirm studies and the theoretical findings reported in the hydrological literature that would support use of updated estimation procedures that have been developed since Bulletin 17B was published.

Open-File Report↗

Sediment transport and effective discharge of the North Platte, South Platte, and Platte Rivers in Nebraska

Sediment discharge was computed for four locations along the North Platte, South Platte, and the Platte Rivers between North Platte and Grand Island, Nebraska in order to determine the effective discharge. The total-sediment discharge was computed by the Colby method and modified Einstein method so that comparisons could be made with the measured total-sediment discharge. The results agreed closely. The Colby method is the simplest and most convenient to use. The mean annual total-sediment discharge for the four sites investigated ranged from 150 tons per day for the South Platte River at North Platte to 1,260 tons per day for the Platte River near Grand Island. The effective discharge at the sites ranged from 41 to 158 cubic meters per second. The probability of the effective discharge being equaled or exceeded ranged from 1 to 30 percent for the four sites. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Estimates of ground-water discharge as determined from measurements of evapotranspiration, Ash Meadows area, Nye County, Nevada

Ash Meadows is one of the major discharge areas within the regional Death Valley ground-water flow system of southern Nevada and adjacent California. Ground water discharging at Ash Meadows is replenished from inflow derived from an extensive recharge area that includes the eastern part of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Currently, contaminants introduced into the subsurface by past nuclear testing at NTS are the subject of study by the U.S. Department of Energy's Environmental Restoration Program. The transport of any contaminant in contact with ground water is controlled in part by the rate and direction of ground-water flow, which itself depends on the location and quantity of ground water discharging from the flow system. To best evaluate any potential risk associated with these test-generated contaminants, studies were undertaken to accurately quantify discharge from areas downgradient from the NTS. This report presents results of a study to refine the estimate of ground-water discharge at Ash Meadows. The study estimates ground-water discharge from the Ash Meadows area through a rigorous quantification of evapotranspiration (ET). To accomplish this objective, the study identifies areas of ongoing ground-water ET, delineates unique areas of ET defined on the basis of similarities in vegetation and soil-moisture conditions, and computes ET rates for each of the delineated areas. A classification technique using spectral-reflectance characteristics determined from satellite images recorded in 1992 identified seven unique units representing areas of ground-water ET. The total area classified encompasses about 10,350 acres dominated primarily by lush desert vegetation. Each unique area, referred to as an ET unit, generally consists of one or more assemblages of local phreatophytes. The ET units identified range from sparse grasslands to open water. Annual ET rates are computed by energy-budget methods from micrometeorological measurements made at 10 sites within six of the seven identified ET units. Micrometeorological data were collected for a minimum of 1 year at each site during 1994 through 1997. Evapotranspiration ranged from 0.6 foot per year in a sparse, dry saltgrass environment to 8.6 feet per year over open water. Ancillary data, including water levels, were collected during this same period to gain additional insight into the evapotranspiration process. Water levels measured in shallow wells showed annual declines of more than 10 feet and daily declines as high as 0.3 foot attributed to water losses associated with evapotranspiration. Mean annual ET from the Ash Meadows area is estimated at 21,000 acre-feet. An estimate of ground-water discharge, based on this ET estimate, is presented as a range to account for uncertainties in the contribution of local precipitation. The estimates given for mean annual ground-water discharge range from 18,000 to 21,000 acre-feet. The low estimate assumes a large contribution from local precipitation in computed ET rates; whereas, the high estimate assumes no contribution from local precipitation. The range presented is only slightly higher than previous estimates of ground-water discharge from the Ash Meadows area based primarily on springflow measurements.

Nevada↗