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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges, Virginia, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges in Virginia. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of six marsh management units within the refuges, totaling about 575 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to approximately $ 143,000, but that further expenditures may yield diminishing return on investment. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than $ 143,000 included digging runnels by hand to improve drainage from the marsh surface, breaching a road to restore natural hydrology, trapping predators to enhance nest success of tidal marsh birds, and reducing the abundance of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) to minimize their effects on marsh vegetation. The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in number of tidal marsh obligate breeding birds, species richness of nekton, and density of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health); and an expected decrease in duration of surface flooding. The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuges.

Virginia↗

USGS2002

Rangeland health attributes and indicators for qualitative assessment

Panels of experts from the Society for Range Management and the National Research Council proposed that status of rangeland ecosystems could be ascertained by evaluating an ecological site's potential to conserve soil resources and by a series of indicators for ecosystem processes and site stability. Using these recommendations as a starting point, we developed a rapid, qualitative method for assessing a moment-in-time status of rangelands. Evaluators rate 17 indicators to assess 3 ecosystem attributes (soil and site stability, hydrologic function, and biotic integrity) for a given location. Indicators include rills, water flow patterns, pedestals and terracettes, bare ground, gullies, wind scour and depositional areas, litter movement, soil resistance to erosion, soil surface loss or degradation, plant composition relative to infiltration, soil compaction, plant functional/structural groups, plant mortality, litter amount, annual production, invasive plants, and reproductive capability. In this paper, we detail the development and evolution of the technique and introduce a modified ecological reference worksheet that documents the expected presence and amount of each indicator on the ecological site. In addition, we review the intended applications for this technique and clarify the differences between assessment and monitoring that lead us to recommend this technique be used for moment-in-time assessments and not be used for temporal monitoring of rangeland status. Lastly, we propose a mechanism for adapting and modifying this technique to reflect improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes. We support the need for quantitative measures for monitoring rangeland health and propose some measures that we believe may address some of the 17 indicators.

Journal of Range Management↗

USGS2018

Novel ecological and climatic conditions drive rapid adaptation in invasive Florida Burmese pythons

Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genome‐wide adaptation on short ‘ecological’ timescales. Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behavior, and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic datasets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures have driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often‐overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗

USGS2018

Consequences of gas flux model choice on the interpretation of metabolic balance across 15 lakes

Ecosystem metabolism and the contribution of carbon dioxide from lakes to the atmosphere can be estimated from free-water gas measurements through the use of mass balance models, which rely on a gas transfer coefficient ( k ) to model gas exchange with the atmosphere. Theoretical and empirically based models of k range in complexity from wind-driven power functions to complex surface renewal models; however, model choice is rarely considered in most studies of lake metabolism. This study used high-frequency data from 15 lakes provided by the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) to study how model choice of k influenced estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere. We tested 6 models of k on lakes chosen to span broad gradients in surface area and trophic states; a metabolism model was then fit to all 6 outputs of k data. We found that hourly values for k were substantially different between models and, at an annual scale, resulted in significantly different estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere.

Inland Waters↗

USGS2021

A common garden super-experiment: An impossible dream to inspire possible synthesis

Global change threatens plant diversity and disrupts its interrelationship with ecosystem structure and function. This disruption in turn undermines confidence in the knowledge ecologists produce, and whether it will translate into multidisciplinary research settings or guide the effective management of natural lands. To address this challenge, ecology needs to consider the interactions between different levels of biological hierarchy, especially how they feedback on, and are mediated by, plant diversity. Doing so will require conducting empirical work and developing theory that simultaneously considers multiple disciplinary perspectives and units of study. Here we advocate the use of common gardens to integrate ecology, evolutionary biology, and ecosystem science through an explicit focus on simultaneous measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. This approach will provide opportunities to evaluate assumptions important to prediction, such as space-for-time substitution, and tackle the integration of physicochemical and eco-evolutionary foundations to understanding plants and ecosystems. Synthesis: We summarize the large body of research on Sonoran Desert winter annuals to demonstrate how experimental designs that employ common gardens to integrate processes across scales hold special promise. This includes refining trait-based theories of plant strategies, providing insight into ecosystem responses to global change, and collaborating effectively with other scientific disciplines.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2011

Habitat selection and abundance of young-of-year smallmouth bass in north temperate lakes

Habitat use during early life history plays an important role in the ecology of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in north temperate lakes. The highest levels of mortality occur during the first year of life, and the habitat selected probably affects mortality. We used resource selection functions and abundance data from two northern Wisconsin lakes to determine the habitats that influence the survival of smallmouth bass. Coarse substrates were consistently important to both nesting locations and young-of-year smallmouth bass. Young smallmouth bass used woody structure after swimming from their nests but disassociated themselves from habitats with more complex woody structure by August. Nonwoody cobble areas offer protection for young-of-year smallmouth bass without attracting predators, as woody habitats do. The decline in the abundance of young-of-year smallmouth bass was best fit to an exponential decay function in woody habitats, but in rock habitats it was linear. Habitat selection by young-of-year smallmouth bass shifts over time, and the shift is linked to predation risk: woody habitats initially offer them an advantage with respect to spawning but eventually provide their predators greater opportunities for ambush. This shift underscores the importance of having a diversity of littoral habitats. This study provides the first quantifiable analyses describing the habitat features selected by young-of-year smallmouth bass and links these descriptions to population dynamics.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Patterns in fish assemblage structure in a small western stream

Knowledge of how patterns in fish assemblages are spatially structured is important for guiding management and conservation actions. However, most studies have taken place in the eastern and midwestern U.S., resulting in a poor understanding of factors influencing western stream fishes. The objectives of this study were to evaluate habitat and species associations of fishes in Deep Creek, a small tributary of the Kootenai River in Idaho. Fishes and habitat were sampled from 58 reaches in Deep Creek. In total, 7,129 individual fishes representing 18 species were sampled. Patterns in species richness were largely a function of channel gradient and associated habitat characteristics. Species richness decreased with increased channel gradient. Species-specific habitat relationships for native and nonnative fishes in Deep Creek provided specific insights into the ecology of each species. Predicted probability of occurrence and relative abundance varied by species and were related to a broad suite of environmental characteristics. This study provides insight on patterns of fish assemblage structure, as well as important information on the ecology of native and nonnative fishes in a western stream system.

Idaho↗

USGS2023

Recognizing political influences in participatory social-ecological systems modeling

Stakeholder participation in social-ecological systems (SES) modeling is increasingly considered a desirable way to elicit diverse sources of knowledge about SES behavior and to promote inclusive decision-making in SES. Understanding how participatory modeling processes function in the context of long-term adaptive management of SES may allow for better design of participatory processes to achieve the intended outcomes of inclusionary knowledge, representativeness, and social learning, while avoiding unintended outcomes. Long-term adaptive management contexts often include political influences -- attempts to shift or preserve power structures and authority, and efforts to represent the political and economic interests of stakeholders -- in the computer models that are used to shape policy making and implementation. In this research, we examine a period that included a major transition in the watershed model used for management of the Chesapeake Bay in the United States. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model has been in development since the 1980s, and is considered by many to be an exemplary case of participatory modeling. We use documentary analysis and interviews with participants involved in the model application and development transition to reveal a variety of ways in which participatory modeling may be subject to different kinds of political influences, some of which resulted in unintended outcomes, including: perceptions of difficulty updating the model in substantive ways, “gaming” of the model/participatory process by stakeholders, and increasing resistance against considering uncertainty in the system not captured by the model. This research suggests unintended or negative outcomes may be associated with both participatory decision-making and stakeholder learning even though they are so often touted as the benefits of participatory modeling. We end with a hypothesis that further development of a theory of computer model governance to bridge model impact and broader theories of environmental governance at the science-policy interface may result in improved SES modeling outcomes.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2009

The numerical and functional responses of a granivorous rodent and the fate of Neotropical tree seeds

Despite their potential to provide mechanistic explanations of rates of seed dispersal and seed fate, the functional and numerical responses of seed predators have never been explicitly examined within this context. Therefore, we investigated the numerical response of a small-mammal seed predator, Heteromys desmarestianus, to disturbance-induced changes in food availability and evaluated the degree to which removal and fate of seeds of eight tree species in a lowland tropical forest in Belize were related to the functional response of H. desmarestianus to varying seed densities. Mark-recapture trapping was used to estimate abundance of H. desmarestianus in six 0.5-ha grids from July 2000 to September 2002. Fruit availability and seed fate were estimated in each grid, and two experiments nested within the grids were used to determine (1) the form of the functional response for nine levels of fruit density (2-32 fruits/m 2 ), (2) the removal rate and handling times, and (3) the total proportion of fruits removed. The total proportion of fruits removed was determined primarily by the numerical response of H. desmarestianus to fruit availability, while removal rates and the proportion of seeds eaten or cached were related primarily to the form of the functional response. However, the numerical and functional responses interacted; H. desmarestianus showed strong spatial and temporal numerical responses to total fruit availability, and their density relative to fruit availability resulted in variation in the form of the functional response. Types I, II, and III functional responses were observed, as were density-independent responses, and these responses varied both among and within fruit species. The highest proportions of fruits were eaten when the Type III functional response was detected, which was when fruit availability was high relative to H. desmarestianus population density. Numerous idiosyncratic influences on seed fate have been documented, but our results indicate that shifts in the numerical and functional responses of seed predators to seasonal and interannual variation in seed availability potentially provide a general mechanistic explanation for patterns of removal and fate for vertebrate-dispersed seeds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2011

Inference about density and temporary emigration in unmarked populations

Few species are distributed uniformly in space, and populations of mobile organisms are rarely closed with respect to movement, yet many models of density rely upon these assumptions. We present a hierarchical model allowing inference about the density of unmarked populations subject to temporary emigration and imperfect detection. The model can be fit to data collected using a variety of standard survey methods such as repeated point counts in which removal sampling, double‐observer sampling, or distance sampling is used during each count. Simulation studies demonstrated that parameter estimators are unbiased when temporary emigration is either “completely random” or is determined by the size and location of home ranges relative to survey points. We also applied the model to repeated removal sampling data collected on Chestnut‐sided Warblers ( Dendroica pensylvancia ) in the White Mountain National Forest, USA. The density estimate from our model, 1.09 birds/ha, was similar to an estimate of 1.11 birds/ha produced by an intensive spot‐mapping effort. Our model is also applicable when processes other than temporary emigration affect the probability of being available for detection, such as in studies using cue counts. Functions to implement the model have been added to the R package unmarked .

New Hampshire↗

USGS2022

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Petit Manan National Wildlife Refuge of the Maine Coastal Islands National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Petit Manan National Wildlife Refuge of the Maine Coastal Islands National Wildlife Refuge Complex in Maine. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of two marsh management units within the refuge complex, totaling about 47 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to $ 9,545, and may continue to increase at a lower rate with further expenditures. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than or equal to $ 9,545 included removing dikes to restore tidal flow in the Gouldsboro Bay management unit and installing runnels to improve surface-water drainage in the Sawyers Marsh management unit. The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in the numbers of tidal marsh obligate breeding birds and density of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health), reduced duration of flooding, and increased capacity of marsh elevation to keep pace with sea-level rise. The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Maine Coastal Islands National Wildlife Refuge Complex that can be updated for implementation as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge complex.

Maine↗

USGS2024

Evaluating the sagebrush conservation design through the lens of a sagebrush indicator species

Sagebrush ecosystems support a suite of unique species such as the emblematic greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) but are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic stressors such as annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, altered wildfire regimes, and land use change. We examined the ability of an ecosystem-based framework for sagebrush conservation, the sagebrush conservation design (SCD) strategy, and the associated model of sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI), to identify and rank priority habitats for sage-grouse, a sagebrush indicator species. We compared sage-grouse population trends from 1996–2021 across the three ranked SEI categories. We then modeled those trends directly as a function of the same landcover predictors underlying SEI, used the median trend estimates to recategorize the sage-grouse’s range, and used spatial correlation methods to compare our sage-grouse performance categories with those of SEI. Finally, we compared the sage-grouse condition categories, predicted by our landcover-based model, to empirical trends derived from population count data. We found that the SCD and SEI were effective tools for identifying and ranking priority habitats for sage-grouse. Population trends were stable in the core areas identified by SEI but declining in the lower (i.e., growth and other) condition categories. As a result, core areas encompassed an increasingly larger share of the total sage-grouse population in a disproportionately smaller area. Our model supports the general functional relationships between landcover and sage-grouse performance suggested by SEI. We found strong spatial congruence between our categories of predicted sage-grouse population performance, the condition categories of SEI, and empirical trends derived from population count data. Our analysis demonstrates that proactive ecosystem-based approaches to the conservation of the sagebrush biome can help optimize the return on limited conservation resources and benefits for sagebrush obligate species and help reduce some of the real and perceived conflicts inherent in single-species management.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, ↗

USGS2015

Predictive modelling of habitat use by marine predators with respect to the abundance and depth distribution of pelagic prey

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin species distribution patterns is a fundamental goal in spatial ecology. However, developing predictive models of habitat use is challenging for species that forage in marine environments, as both predators and prey are often highly mobile and difficult to monitor. Consequently, few studies have developed resource selection functions for marine predators based directly on the abundance and distribution of their prey. We analysed contemporaneous data on the diving locations of two seabird species, the shallow-diving Peruvian Booby ( Sula variegata ) and deeper diving Guanay Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax bougainvilliorum ), and the abundance and depth distribution of their main prey, Peruvian anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens ). Based on this unique data set, we developed resource selection functions to test the hypothesis that the probability of seabird diving behaviour at a given location is a function of the relative abundance of prey in the upper water column. For both species, we show that the probability of diving behaviour is mostly explained by the distribution of prey at shallow depths. While the probability of diving behaviour increases sharply with prey abundance at relatively low levels of abundance, support for including abundance in addition to the depth distribution of prey is weak, suggesting that prey abundance was not a major factor determining the location of diving behaviour during the study period. The study thus highlights the importance of the depth distribution of prey for two species of seabird with different diving capabilities. The results complement previous research that points towards the importance of oceanographic processes that enhance the accessibility of prey to seabirds. The implications are that locations where prey is predictably found at accessible depths may be more important for surface foragers, such as seabirds, than locations where prey is predictably abundant. Analysis of the relative importance of abundance and accessibility is essential for the design and evaluation of effective management responses to reduced prey availability for seabirds and other top predators in marine systems.

Gulf of Guinea↗

USGS2023

Assimilating ecological theory with empiricism: Using constrained generalized additive models to enhance survival analyses

1. Integrating ecological theory with empirical methods is ubiquitous in ecology using hierarchical Bayesian models. However, there has been little development focused on integration of ecological theory into models for survival analysis. Survival is a fundamental process, linking individual fitness with population dynamics, but incorporating life history strategies to inform survival estimation can be challenging because mortality processes occur at multiple scales. 2. We develop an approach to survival analysis, incorporating model constraints based on a species' life history strategy using functional analytical tools. Specifically, we structurally separate intrinsic patterns of mortality that arise from age-specific processes (e.g. increasing survival during early life stages due to growth or maturation, versus senescence) from extrinsic mortality patterns that arise over different periods of time (e.g. seasonal temporal shifts). We use shape constrained generalized additive models (CGAMs) to obtain age-specific hazard functions that incorporate theoretical information based on classical survivorship curves into the age component of the model and capture extrinsic factors in the time component. 3. We compare the performance of our modelling approach to standard survival modelling tools that do not explicitly incorporate species life history strategy in the model structure, using metrics of predictive power, accuracy, efficiency and computation time. We applied these models to two case studies that reflect different functional shapes for the underlying survivorship curves, examining age-period survival for white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in Wisconsin, USA and Columbian sharp-tailed grouse T ympanuchus phasianellus columbianus in Colorado, USA.

Colorado, Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

A comparative framework to develop transferable species distribution models for animal telemetry data

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become increasingly popular for making ecological inferences, as well as predictions to inform conservation and management. In predictive modeling, practitioners often use correlative SDMs that only evaluate a single spatial scale and do not account for differences in life stages. These modeling decisions may limit the performance of SDMs beyond the study region or sampling period. Given the increasing desire to develop transferable SDMs, a robust framework is necessary that can account for known challenges of model transferability. Here, we propose a comparative framework to develop transferable SDMs, which was tested using satellite telemetry data from green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ). This framework is characterized by a set of steps comparing among different models based on (1) model algorithm (e.g., generalized linear model vs. Gaussian process regression) and formulation (e.g., correlative model vs. hybrid model), (2) spatial scale, and (3) accounting for life stage. SDMs were fitted as resource selection functions and trained on data from the Gulf of Mexico with bathymetric depth, net primary productivity, and sea surface temperature as covariates. Independent validation datasets from Brazil and Qatar were used to assess model transferability. A correlative SDM using a hierarchical Gaussian process regression (HGPR) algorithm exhibited greater transferability than a hybrid SDM using HGPR, as well as correlative and hybrid forms of hierarchical generalized linear models. Additionally, models that evaluated habitat selection at the finest spatial scale and that did not account for life stage proved to be the most transferable in this study. The comparative framework presented here may be applied to a variety of species, ecological datasets (e.g., presence-only, presence-absence, mark-recapture), and modeling frameworks (e.g., resource selection functions, step selection functions, occupancy models) to generate transferable predictions of species–habitat associations. We expect that SDM predictions resulting from this comparative framework will be more informative management tools and may be used to more accurately assess climate change impacts on a wide array of taxa.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Community-level response of fishes and aquatic macroinvertebrates to stream restoration in a third-order tributary of the Potomac River, USA

Natural stream channel design principles and riparian restoration practices were applied during spring 2010 to an agriculturally impaired reach of the Cacapon River, a tributary of the Potomac River which flows into the Chesapeake Bay. Aquatic macroinvertebrates and fishes were sampled from the restoration reach, two degraded control, and two natural reference reaches prior to, concurrently with, and following restoration (2009 through 2010). Collector filterers and scrapers replaced collector gatherers as the dominant macroinvertebrate functional feeding groups in the restoration reach. Before restoration, based on indices of biotic integrity (IBI), the restoration reach fish and macroinvertebrate communities closely resembled those sampled from the control reaches, and after restoration more closely resembled those from the reference reaches. Although the macroinvertebrate community responded more favorably than the fish community, both communities recovered quickly from the temporary impairment caused by the disturbance of restoration procedures and suggest rapid improvement in local ecological conditions.

West Virginia↗

USGS2008

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models ( Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004 ). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Ecological Modelling↗