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Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender sustained directional changes as well as abrupt transformations. This environmental non-stationarity challenges assumptions and expectations among scientists, managers, rights holders, and stakeholders. These challenges are anything but straightforward – a high degree of uncertainty impedes our ability to predict the environmental trajectory with confidence, and affected resources often span multiple governance jurisdictions or are subject to competing management objectives. Fortunately, tools exist to help grapple with such challenges. Two commonly used tools are scenario planning (SP) and structured decision making (SDM). SP is a well-established approach for assessing system response and facilitating decision making under a wide range of conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable, such as those associated with adapting to climate change. However, SP lacks a defined structure for establishing objectives, quantifying tradeoffs, and evaluating the performance of candidate decisions to meet those objectives. SDM, on the other hand, is rooted in decision theory and focuses on explicit (often quantitative) assessment of the expected outcomes of choosing among a set of decision alternatives. SDM has been criticized for an inability to account for surprises and for imposing an overly narrow framing of problems to increase tractability. We discuss the strengths and limitations of SDM and SP as experienced through their application in various resource-management contexts, and then propose a new generalized framework – Scenario-Based Decision Analysis (SBDA) – that integrates these complementary approaches. SBDA structures resource management problems and solutions while considering uncertainties and surprises to inform resource management decision making.

Biological Conservation↗

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative Science and Management Workshop Proceedings, May 12-14, 2009, Laramie, Wyoming

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hosted the second Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Science and Management Workshop at the University of Wyoming Conference Center and Hilton Garden Inn on May 12, 13, and 14, 2009, in Laramie, Wyo. The workshop focused on six topics seen as relevant to ongoing WLCI science and management activities: mapping and modeling resources for decisionmaking; data information and management; fish and wildlife research; changing landscapes; monitoring; and reclamation and offsite mitigation. Panelists gave presentations on ongoing research in these six areas during plenary sessions followed by audience discussions. Three breakout groups focused on discussing wildlife, reclamation, and monitoring. Throughout the plenary sessions, audience discussions, and breakout groups, several needs were repeatedly emphasized by panelists and workshop participants: developing a conservation plan and identifying priority areas and species for conservation actions; gaining a deeper understanding of sagebrush ecology; identifying thresholds for wildlife that can be used to create an 'early warning system' for managers; continuing to collect basic data across the landscape; facilitating even greater communication and partnership across agencies and between scientists and land managers; and engaging proactively in understanding new changes on the landscape such as wind energy development and climate change. Detailed proceedings from the workshop are captured and summarized in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Positive but un-sustained wildlife community responses to reserve expansion and mammal reintroductions in South Africa

The creation and expansion of protected areas, coupled with wildlife reintroductions, are increasingly used as conservation measures to combat wildlife declines worldwide. Although these types of restoration efforts are expected be beneficial to wildlife populations, variable species management and interactions among species within complex food webs have the potential to lead to unintended species-specific responses to reserve expansion which can counteract the anticipated positive effects. We used a multi-season camera trap study to investigate community-wide responses of wildlife to a reserve expansion and associated wildlife releases in South Africa. We analyzed the camera trap data using community occupancy and N-mixture models to assess how the occupancy and intensity of use of individual species changed in the four seasons following reserve expansion. We found species-specific responses to reserve expansion, although responses were generally positive in occupancy and intensity of use but un-sustained. The apex predator, the lion ( Panthera leo ) and the majority of managed herbivores exhibited sustained or delayed positive responses, whereas most subordinate predators and unmanaged herbivores had short-lived, fluctuating, or neutral responses. Interactive effects of top-down suppression, competitive pressure, and increased space and food resources likely resulted in the temporally-variable responses of most species. Although no species responded negatively to reserve expansion and mammal reintroductions, the lack of sustained positive responses for most species indicates the complexities of implementing conservation actions to benefit multiple wildlife species. Our results highlight the importance of monitoring the entire wildlife community following management actions such as reserve expansion or wildlife reintroductions.

Biological Conservation↗

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius , in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

Oregon↗

Too simple, too complex, or just right? Advantages, challenges, and guidance for indicators of genetic diversity

Measuring genetic diversity of wild species using DNA-based data remains resource intensive and time consuming for nearly all species. However, genetic assessments are needed for global conservation commitments, including the Convention on Biological Diversity, and for governments and managers to evaluate conservation progress, as well as prioritizing species and populations to preserve and recover genetic diversity (e.g., via genetic rescue). Recently, indicators were developed for tracking and reporting genetic diversity status and trends for hundreds of species. The indicators quantify two simple proxies of within-population and among-population genetic diversity and adaptive potential: small effective population size ( N e < 500) and the loss of genetically distinct populations. The indicators must balance scientific credibility, practicality, and simplicity. In the present article, we summarize the advantages of these pragmatic indicators, address critiques by scientists for simplifying assumptions and by policymakers for complexity, and propose potential solutions and next steps. We aim to support practitioners putting indicators into policy, action, legislation, and reporting.

BioScience↗

Geodatabase of Wyoming statewide oil and gas drilling activity to 2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a geographic information system (GIS) of Wyoming statewide historical oil and gas drilling activity for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The WLCI is representative of the partnerships being formed by the USGS with other Department of the Interior bureaus, State and local agencies, industry, academia, and private landowners that are committed to maintaining healthy landscapes, sustaining wildlife, and preserving recreational and grazing uses as energy resources development progresses in southwestern Wyoming. This product complements the 2009 USGS publication on oil and gas development in southwestern Wyoming http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/437/) by approximating, based on database attributes, the time frame of drilling activity for each well (start and stop dates). This GIS product also adds current oil and gas drilling activity not only in the area encompassing the WLCI, but also statewide. Oil and gas data, documentation, and spatial data processing capabilities are available and can be downloaded from the USGS website. These data originated from the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (WOGCC), represent decades of oil and gas drilling (1900 to 2010), and will facilitate a landscape-level approach to integrated science-based assessments, resource management and land-use decision making.

Wyoming↗

U.S. Geological Survey sagebrush ecosystem research annual report for 2020

The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem extends across 251,473 square miles over portions of 13 western States. Affected by multiple stressors, including interactions among fire, invasive plants, and human land uses, this ecosystem has experienced significant loss, fragmentation, and degradation of landscapes once dominated by sagebrush. In turn, wildlife populations have declined following these deleterious conditions. Federal, State, local, and Tribal agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry have been galvanized by declining wildlife populations to implement management actions to confront the impacts of these stressors and ensure the long-term availability of the sagebrush ecosystem for the broad range of uses critical to stakeholders in the Western United States. The sagebrush ecosystem provides habitat for more than 350 species of plants and animals that are dependent on sagebrush for all or part of their annual life history. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) stands out as an iconic species of this ecosystem. Sage-grouse populations occur in 11 States, and 2 Canadian Provinces and require relatively large expanses of sagebrush-dominated habitat to meet all their seasonal habitat needs. Recent management actions to conserve and maintain the sagebrush ecosystem have focused on the protection and restoration of sage-grouse habitat; however, each of the 350 species has a unique life history and differing area requirements (for example, large areas for mule deer [ Odocoileus hemionus ] and small areas for pygmy rabbit [ Brachylagus idahoensis ]), and some species, such as migratory birds, rely on various parts of the sagebrush ecosystem but only for part of the year (for example, Brewer’s sparrow [ Spizella breweri ]). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a broad research program focused on the sagebrush ecosystem, wildlife species within the ecosystem, and the species’ response to stressors and management actions. The program provides a foundation of scientific information for use in major land and resource management decisions in the sagebrush ecosystem. By providing the science to inform these decisions, the USGS is assisting land and resource managers at the Federal, State, Tribal, and local levels working towards the goal of sustainable wildlife populations and restored landscapes. This information can inform planning and management conducted by nongovernmental organizations as well. USGS research is tailored specifically to inform adaptive management, improve strategies for maintaining existing areas of intact sagebrush, and restoring degraded landscapes. Examples of research support for partners include providing information for actions such as the preclusion of the need to list the greater sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act and recent revisions to Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service resource management plans and land use. The USGS continues to provide foundational science to inform science-based decisions within the U.S. Department of the Interior and other Federal, State, and local agencies and their continued conservation, management, and restoration of the sagebrush ecosystem to help support local economies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

Land↗

Balancing practicality and hydrologic realism: a parsimonious approach for simulating rapid groundwater recharge via unsaturated-zone preferential flow

The impact of preferential flow on recharge and contaminant transport poses a considerable challenge to water-resources management. Typical hydrologic models require extensive site characterization, but can underestimate fluxes when preferential flow is significant. A recently developed source-responsive model incorporates film-flow theory with conservation of mass to estimate unsaturated-zone preferential fluxes with readily available data. The term source-responsive describes the sensitivity of preferential flow in response to water availability at the source of input. We present the first rigorous tests of a parsimonious formulation for simulating water table fluctuations using two case studies, both in arid regions with thick unsaturated zones of fractured volcanic rock. Diffuse flow theory cannot adequately capture the observed water table responses at both sites; the source-responsive model is a viable alternative. We treat the active area fraction of preferential flow paths as a scaled function of water inputs at the land surface then calibrate the macropore density to fit observed water table rises. Unlike previous applications, we allow the characteristic film-flow velocity to vary, reflecting the lag time between source and deep water table responses. Analysis of model performance and parameter sensitivity for the two case studies underscores the importance of identifying thresholds for initiation of film flow in unsaturated rocks, and suggests that this parsimonious approach is potentially of great practical value.

Water Resources Research↗

Considering behavioral state when predicting habitat use: Behavior-specific spatial models for the endangered Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle

Effective planning for species conservation often requires an understanding of habitat use. The resources an animal selects within the landscape relate to its behavioral state and, therefore, incorporating behavior into habitat selection analyses can help inform management of threatened species. Here we present an approach for developing behavior-specific spatial habitat-use models using large quantities of GPS telemetry data. Using hidden Markov models, we first characterize 231,478 GPS fixes from 22 recently fledged endangered Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles ( Aquila audax fleayi ) as reflective of either perching, short-distance flight, or long-distance flight. We then use a multivariate habitat selection ratio to develop spatial models predicting where these behavioral states occur. Recently fledged Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles selected for areas close to forest edges during perching and short distance flights, whereas they selected more strongly for areas with steep topography (slopes > 15°) and further from forest edges for longer flights. Models using distance to forest edge and topographic slope effectively predicted where eagles engaged in long flights ( R 2 > 0.91, r s > 0.90) in each of six regions, whereas the performance varied by region for models describing perching ( R 2 = 0.43–0.97, r s = 0.80–0.97) and short flights ( R 2 = 0.34–0.93, r s = 0.63–1.00). Our study provides a detailed understanding of habitat use by young Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles, which has multiple applications in the ongoing conservation of the population. Our method illustrates a framework for spatially explicit and behavior-specific habitat selection analyses that can be applied to other species of conservation concern.

Tasmania↗

USGS Workshop on Scientific Aspects of a Long-Term Experimental Plan for Glen Canyon Dam, April 10-11, 2007, Flagstaff, Arizona

Executive Summary Glen Canyon Dam is located in the lower reaches of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area on the Colorado River, approximately 15 miles upriver from Grand Canyon National Park (fig. 1). In 1992, Congress passed and the President signed into law the Grand Canyon Protection Act (GCPA; title XVIII, sec. 1801?1809, of Public Law 102-575), which seeks ?to protect, mitigate adverse impacts to, and improve the values for which Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area were established.? The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was implemented as a result of the 1996 Record of Decision on the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement to ensure that the primary mandate of the GCPA is met through advances in information and resources management (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). On November 3, 2006, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) announced it would develop a long-term experimental plan environmental impact statement (LTEP EIS) for operational activities at Glen Canyon Dam and other management actions on the Colorado River. The purpose of the long-term experimental plan is twofold: (1) to increase the scientific understanding of the ecosystem and (2) to improve and protect important downstream resources. The proposed plan would implement a structured, longterm program of experimentation to include dam operations, potential modifications to Glen Canyon Dam intake structures, and other management actions such as removal of nonnative fish species. The development of the long-term experimental plan continues efforts begun by the GCDAMP to protect resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, including Grand Canyon, through adaptive management and scientific experimentation. The LTEP EIS will rely on the extensive scientific studies that have been undertaken as part of the adaptive management program by the U.S. Geological Survey?s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), one of the four research stations within the USGS Southwest Biological Science Center. On April 10 and 11, 2007, at the behest of Reclamation, the GCMRC convened a workshop with scientific experts to identify one or more scientifically credible, long-term experimental options for Reclamation to consider for the LTEP EIS that would be consistent with the purpose and need for the plan. Workshop participants included government, academic, and private scientists with broad experience in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and regulated rivers around the world. Resource managers and GCDAMP participants were also present on the second day of the workshop. In advance of the workshop, Reclamation and LTEP EIS cooperating agencies identified 14 core scientific questions. Workshop participants were asked to consider how proposed options would address these questions, which fall primarily into four areas: (1) conservation of endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and other high-priority biological resources, (2) conservation of sediment resources, (3) enhancement of recreational resources, and (4) preservation of cultural resources. A secondary objective of the workshop was the evaluation of four long-term experimental options developed by the GCDAMP Science Planning Group (SPG) (appendix B). The flow and nonflow treatments called for in the four experimental options were an important starting point for workshop discussions. At the beginning of the workshop, participants were provided with the final LTEP EIS scoping report prepared by Reclamation. Participants were also advised that Reclamation had committed to ?make every effortEto ensure that a new population of humpback chub is established in the mainstem or one or more of the tributaries within Grand Canyon? in the 1995 Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). This decision was consistent with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service?s 1995 bi

Open-File Report↗

Arthropod prey of Wilson's Warblers in the understory of Douglas-fir forests

Availability of food resources is an important factor in avian habitat selection. Food resources for terrestrial birds often are closely related to vegetation structure and composition. Identification of plant species important in supporting food resources may facilitate vegetation management to achieve objectives for providing bird habitat. We used fecal analysis to describe the diet of adult Wilson's Warblers ( Wilsonia pusilla ) that foraged in the understory of Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii ) forests in western Oregon during the breeding season. We sampled arthropods at the same sites where diet data were collected, and compared abundance and biomass of prey among seven common shrub species. Wilson's Warblers ate more caterpillars (Lepidoptera larvae), flies (Diptera), beetles (Coleoptera), and Homoptera than expected based on availability. Deciduous shrubs supported higher abundances of arthropod taxa and size classes used as prey by Wilson's Warblers than did evergreen shrubs. The development and maintenance of deciduous understory vegetation in conifer forests of the Pacific Northwest may be fundamental for conservation of food webs that support breeding Wilson's Warblers and other shrub-associated, insectivorous songbirds.

Oregon↗

Managing state lands for wildlife

State-owned lands are a vital component of state fish and wildlife management programs because they contain valuable habitats for a diversity of wild species and often provide important public access. The Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA 2017) reported state agencies manage or administer approximately 188 million hectares of land, including 10 million hectares under fee title ownership with the remainder of those lands leased or licensed in conservation agreements, grazing allotments, or rights-of-ways. State agencies commonly strive to enhance wildlife habitats within their purview, but have also improved areas not directly owned by them. In total, an estimated 22,953,364 additional hectares have been improved by state fish and wildlife agencies through private landowner agreements (AFWA 2017). States also own 192,000 individual water rights and have developed at least 53,000 formal partnership agreements to conserve wildlife. Today, there are a plethora of state land categories including wildlife refuges, wildlife management areas, state forests, parks and trails, state trust lands, research and natural areas, and public fishing areas. Acquisition and/or leasing of properties to provide access for fishing and hunting are often vitally important in meeting local constituents’ desires for consumptive uses of their natural resources. However, state agencies also provide areas for forest conservation, boating, camping, hiking, rock hounding, skiing, wildlife viewing, and other nonconsumptive recreational pursuits. Lastly, states often acquire properties primarily for wildlife habitat management/conservation or to preserve areas of cultural and historic value to their citizens.

Book chapter↗

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin↗

Protected from Pterygoplichthys? Predicting thermal habitat suitability for nonnative armored catfish in the Suwannee River

Objective Nonnative fishes can modify ecosystems and harm economies when they are introduced to new environments. Climate change is likely to assist the spread and establishment of some nonnative fishes (e.g., warmwater species), but spatiotemporal gaps in water temperature monitoring and modeling may prevent ecologists and managers from forecasting thermal habitat suitability for these taxa. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of winter water temperatures and thermal habitat suitability for two priority nonnative armored catfish, Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish P. multiradiatus , in the Suwannee River, Florida and Georgia. Methods Precipitation- and groundwater-corrected air–water temperature models were developed and evaluated using a model selection procedure to predict water temperatures at four sites in the Suwannee River. These models were chosen because they blend the simplicity of air–water temperature models with the accuracy of hydrometeorological models to create an efficient, economical, management-relevant approach for analyzing and forecasting water temperature. Results Most of the top-performing water temperature models (92%) had precipitation or groundwater corrections to air–water temperature formulations. Projected mean and maximum water temperatures increased as simulated climate change intensified. All four Suwannee River sites studied were projected to be thermally hospitable to the survival of Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish. Lower river sites, noticeably warmer than upper river sites, were conducive to the survival of Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the winter months. The upper river sites were too cold for Orinoco Sailfin Catfish survival in some climate-change scenarios, but the Suwannee River has an abundance of constant-temperature springs that are likely hospitable to Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the year. Conclusions The findings suggest that winter water temperatures will likely not be a barrier to the survival of Pterygoplichthys catfish in the Suwannee River, amplifying the importance of conservation and management approaches to inhibit their spread and establishment. If the Pterygoplichthys population remains small and isolated and decision makers are able to devote required staff time and resources to managing these species, removal and eradication at local if not broader scales may be reasonable goals. This study provides a water temperature modeling approach that can aid ecologists and managers in prioritizing sites to prevent the introduction, slow the dispersal, eradicate, and control Pterygoplichthys catfish and other nonnative fishes in the Suwannee River and beyond.

Florida, Georgia↗

Exotic plant species invade hot spots of native plant diversity

Some theories and experimental studies suggest that areas of low plant species richness may be invaded more easily than areas of high plant species richness. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data on plant species richness, foliar cover, and frequency from 200 1-m 2 subplots (20 1000-m 2 modified-Whittaker plots) in the Colorado Rockies (USA), and 160 1-m 2 subplots (16 1000-m 2 plots) in the Central Grasslands in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Minnesota (USA) to test the generality of this paradigm. At the 1-m 2 scale, the paradigm was supported in four prairie types in the Central Grasslands, where exotic species richness declined with increasing plant species richness and cover. At the 1-m 2 scale, five forest and meadow vegetation types in the Colorado Rockies contradicted the paradigm; exotic species richness increased with native-plant species richness and foliar cover. At the 1000-m 2 plot scale (among vegetation types), 83% of the variance in exotic species richness in the Central Grasslands was explained by the total percentage of nitrogen in the soil and the cover of native plant species. In the Colorado Rockies, 69% of the variance in exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots was explained by the number of native plant species and the total percentage of soil carbon. At landscape and biome scales, exotic species primarily invaded areas of high species richness in the four Central Grasslands sites and in the five Colorado Rockies vegetation types. For the nine vegetation types in both biomes, exotic species cover was positively correlated with mean foliar cover, mean soil percentage N, and the total number of exotic species. These patterns of invasibility depend on spatial scale, biome and vegetation type, spatial autocorrelation effects, availability of resources, and species-specific responses to grazing and other disturbances. We conclude that: (1) sites high in herbaceous foliar cover and soil fertility, and hot spots of plant diversity (and biodiversity), are invasible in many landscapes; and (2) this pattern may be more closely related to the degree resources are available in native plant communities, independent of species richness. Exotic plant invasions in rare habitats and distinctive plant communities pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Ecological Monographs↗

Assessing the impact of site-specific BMPs using a spatially explicit, field-scale SWAT model with edge-of-field and tile hydrology and water-quality data in the Eagle Creek watershed, Ohio

The Eagle Creek watershed, a small subbasin (125 km 2 ) within the Maumee River Basin, Ohio, was selected as a part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) “Priority Watersheds” program to evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) funded through GLRI at the field and watershed scales. The location and quantity of BMPs were obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was built and calibrated for this predominantly agricultural Eagle Creek watershed, incorporating NCP BMPs and monitoring data at the watershed outlet, an edge-of-field (EOF), and tile monitoring sites. Input air temperature modifications were required to induce simulated tile flow to match monitoring data. Calibration heavily incorporated tile monitoring data to correctly proportion surface and subsurface flow, but calibration statistics were unsatisfactory at the EOF and tile monitoring sites. At the watershed outlet, satisfactory to very good calibration statistics were achieved over a 2-year calibration period, and satisfactory statistics were found in the 2-year validation period. SWAT fixes parameters controlling nutrients primarily at the watershed level; a refinement of these parameters at a smaller-scale could improve field-level calibration. Field-scale modeling results indicate that filter strips (FS) are the most effective single BMPs at reducing dissolved reactive phosphorus, and FS typically decreased sediment and nutrient yields when added to any other BMP or BMP combination. Cover crops were the most effective single, in-field practice by reducing nutrient loads over winter months. Watershed-scale results indicate BMPs can reduce sediment and nutrients, but reductions due to NCP BMPs in the Eagle Creek watershed for all water-quality constituents were less than 10%. Hypothetical scenarios simulated with increased BMP acreages indicate larger investments of the appropriate BMP or BMP combination can decrease watershed level loads.

Ohio↗

Delineating draft inventory analysis units for National Scenic and Historic Trails inventory, assessment, and monitoring programs

As of 2024, there are 32 National Scenic and Historic Trails (NSHTs) in the system administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The BLM administers, manages, and protects 19 of these trails as part of its system of national conservation lands. Various laws, regulations, and policies require that the BLM conduct and maintain an inventory to protect trail-related resources, qualities, values, associated settings, and primary use or uses. There are set procedures for conducting inventory, assessment, and monitoring (IAM) of NSHTs, as outlined in volumes 1 and 2 of BLM Technical Reference 6280-1. One of the first steps in the IAM process is deciding the area along a trail to inventory. However, volumes 1 and 2 of BLM Technical Reference 6280-1 do not specify how the land area to be inventoried should be delineated. The BLM calls these focus areas for IAM efforts “inventory analysis units” (IAUs), which are defined as the geospatial boundary for the location of an inventory along a trail. This report reviews the approach used to delineate the IAUs for an inventory effort and identifies best practices for creating initial IAUs, termed “draft IAUs.” Draft IAUs would provide standardization across multiple management jurisdictions by applying the same parameters for their delineation. These draft IAUs would provide trail managers with an area surrounding NSHTs that would trigger the need for an inventory if a project were proposed within it and are meant to be refined during localized inventory efforts. The best practices herein are for creating draft IAUs using standard parameters for performing a viewshed analysis to identify a proxy of land to include in an initial inventory effort.

New Mexico↗