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A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document event scales and inform population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability which will increase the ability to robustly estimate mortality, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, mortality spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods, that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible, are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

EcoEvoRxiv↗

A comprehensive monitoring program for North American shorebirds

Anthropogenic changes to the biosphere, including widespread degradation and losses of habitats and ecosystems, are causing rapid and profound changes to bird and other wildlife populations throughout the world. Such changes have led to increasing risks and rates of extinction. As a consequence, information on how bird populations are changing is becoming increasingly important to wildlife conservationists and managers. Early detection of population change is crucial for setting wildlife planning and management priorities. For example, information on population size, population vulnerability, and population change has been central to international conservation strategies such as the Ramsar Convention, the Western Hemisphere (Bonn) Convention, and the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network. Measuring population size or change is also crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of population management programs implemented by wildlife agencies both locally and regionally. Although the concept of determining population size is simple, practical difficulties can be enormous and costly to overcome. In the United States, 4 billion dollars will be spent in year 2000 to census the human population, possibly one of the most easily counted of all vertebrates. By contrast, the portion of the FY 2000 budget of the U.S. Department of the Interior allotted for tracking populations of all migratory birds (> 600 species) is less than 5 million dollars (.0125% of the human census figure). This falls far short of the amount required to provide adequate, science-based information about bird populations and population change to wildlife managers. The gap between current ability and need is especially noteworthy for shorebirds. There are 72 species, subspecies, or distinct populations of shorebirds in North America. Even though most of these have received less conservation attention than such groups as waterfowl, colonial waterbirds, or songbirds, recent independent evaluation of data collected for other purposes in the eastern United States and Canada during the 1970s and early 1980s showed that 16 of 26 species surveyed are apparently declining, some at rates exceeding 5% per year (Howe et al., 1989). Except for one increasing species, populations of the other 9 species were statistically unchanged over the time period analyzed. In most cases causes of shorebird population declines are poorly known. For some species, the declines may be part of natural population cycles. For others the changes may reflect deterioration of conditions on the nesting grounds, at migration stopover locations, in wintering zones, or combinations of these. Determining which of these scenarios is correct and what management actions, if any, are warranted will be possible only after implementing a comprehensive monitoring plan such as that described here

Report↗

Trends in conservation research and management in Hawai‘i over the past 20 years

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering of the majority of scientists, managers and the public in Hawaiʻi. Of the 2145 abstracts considered, 60% percent reported research results; 40.0% reported information on conservation and resource management programmes and institutions (i.e., non-research abstracts). Initially, applied research abstracts predominated, but in recent years the number of basic research abstracts has become similar. Across taxonomic groups, terrestrial plants, mammals and birds were the dominant research subjects, fish, algae and fungi were noticeably less studied relative to their diversity in Hawaiʻi. Bird and fish species studied were mostly native; research on most other taxa was evenly divided between native and non-native species. Topics have oscillated in frequency over the years, but there have been no dramatic trends, with the exception of climate change and Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK). Although there is an increasing trend in LEK and cross-disciplinary studies, the number of related abstracts have remained uncommon through the period, accounting for less than 5.0% of total research abstracts analyzed. Our results offer an oportunity for the conservation community to take a closer look at reported effort to better address key conservation questions for Hawaiʻi.

Hawaiʻi↗

A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document the scale of events and assess population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities, such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability, which will increase the ability to estimate mortality robustly, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring, which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, determination of mortality minimum spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this decision tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Ornithological Applications↗

Current range of the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris). Part II: Winter range

The importance of wintering areas for Neotropical migrants is well established. The wintering range of the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) is described in detail and presented in maps. The paper also discusses extralimital records from islands in the Caribbean Basin as well as scattered wintering individuals outside the winter range. The possibility of eastern birds wintering on the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent Central America is considered. An extensive treatment of the protected areas of Peninsular Florida, the northern Bahamas, and Cuba describes the importance of upland habitats within these protected areas for wintering buntings. This information should be useful to land management agencies, conservation organizations, and private landholders for the welfare of the bunting and biodiversity in general and may also be of interest to ornithologists, other biological disciplines, naturalists, and birders.

North American Birds↗

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions. The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

Differential shortstopping behaviour in Whooping Cranes: Habitat or social learning?

Many migratory bird species have begun shifting their wintering grounds closer to their breeding grounds, shortening their yearly migration distance through a behavior called shortstopping. While multiple studies have investigated possible drivers, it remains unclear why only some populations adopt this behavior. We studied the differential occurrence of shortstopping in two populations of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana): a remnant population where juveniles migrate with their parents, and a reintroduced population consisting largely of captive-reared birds trained to migrate by unrelated conspecifics or by humans. Shortstopping is widespread in the reintroduced population, while the remnant population has not shown any appreciable northward movement of its overwintering sites. We examined potential drivers for this lack of shortstopping, including a lack of suitable habitat north of their current wintering area or social differences between populations. Using characteristics of winter locations used by the reintroduced population, we found that 31.4% of the remnant migration corridor was predicted to be suitable for wintering, suggesting that insufficient habitat suitability is not limiting shortstopping behaviour. However, we found evidence for behavioural differences that might explain the absence of shortstopping in the remnant population: while all juveniles of the remnant population associate with their parents during overwintering, juveniles from the reintroduced population did not associate with older conspecifics in 12 out of 25 observed wintering events, suggesting that the social transmission of winter migration behaviours might be less effective in the reintroduced population. Although social learning is generally believed to increase flexibility in migratory strategies, a strong vertical transmission of behaviour might enforce adherence to established traditions and reduce the uptake of novel behaviours such as shortstopping. We suggest that, besides habitat availability, social factors may also play a role in explaining the absence of shortstopping behaviour in some migratory bird populations.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes) , two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Chesapeake Bay↗

Nest visits and capture events affect breeding success of Yellow-billed and Pacific loons

Accurate estimates of breeding success are essential for understanding population dynamics and for managing populations. Unfortunately, research activities to collect these data can negatively impact the breeding success of the study species and bias estimates of breeding success. Despite the potential for negative impacts, few studies have documented the effect of capturing incubating adults on nest survival or compared nest survival following different capture methods. In this study we evaluate the impacts of investigator disturbance associated with captures and nest visits on nest survival of Yellow-billed Loons ( Gavia adamsii ) and Pacific Loons ( Gavia pacifica ) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), an area of conservation concern, in 2011–2013. In an effort to reduce capture-related nest failures, we developed a new suspended dive net technique to catch territorial aquatic birds while off their nests. We then compared nest survival following suspended dive net captures to bow-net trap captures of breeding adult loons. Daily nest survival following bow-net trap or suspended dive net capture was about 30% lower than when adults were not captured. The effect of captures on nest survival was similar between bow-net trap and suspended dive net capture methods. Nest visits without captures also negatively impacted nest survival, although less than captures. If not accounted for, nest visitation biased daily survival rates of nests downward 6%. Effects of investigator disturbance did not differ by species or between years. Our results suggest that any source of disturbance that displaces incubating adult loons could potentially reduce nest survival. To maximize breeding success, human disturbance factors should be limited near loon nests.

Alaska↗

Satellite transmitters reveal previously unknown migratory behavior and wintering locations of Yuma Ridgway’s Rails

Preventing or reversing population declines of rare species often requires an understanding of their complete annual life cycle, but this information is lacking for many species. Such has been the case for Yuma Ridgway’s Rails ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ), a federally endangered marsh bird endemic to the Lower Colorado River Basin and Salton Sink in California, Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico. Yuma Ridgway’s Rails have been considered non-migratory, but incidental mortalities at solar facilities > 50 km from any rail habitat called this assumption into question. We attached transmitters to 89 Yuma Ridgway’s Rails during the summers of 2017 to 2019 and documented the migratory movements of 23 rails, including three adult male Yuma Ridgway’s Rails with breeding territories in the United States that wintered in Mexico and returned to the United States the following year. The rails flew > 900 km in the fall to mangrove wetlands along the coast of Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico, and returned to their breeding areas in the United States the following breeding season. Of the rails in our study, 40.0% (20 of 50) of adults and 21.4% (3 of 14) of juveniles initiated fall migratory movements. Our results invalidate existing paradigms about Yuma Ridgway’s Rails by demonstrating that not all individuals remain in their breeding areas throughout the year. Instead, some migrate long distances over inhospitable terrain to reach wintering areas that, in some cases, are in wetland types different from those in their breeding territories. Our results provide actionable data to expand conservation strategies to better account for the annual life cycle of this endangered species and highlight the need for United States-Mexico cooperation, given the regular migration of this rare bird between the two countries.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sono↗

Winter philopatry of harlequin ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska

We used capture-mark-recapture data to assess winter philopatry by Harlequin Ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, during winters 1995–1997 and 2000–2001. Philopatry was quantified using homing rates, which were estimated as the proportion of birds recaptured at their original site out of all recaptured birds. Between-year homing rates of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87–1.00) and 1.00 (0.92–1.00) were estimated for females and males, respectively, at three locations on Montague Island. Similar homing rates were measured in western Prince William Sound, where estimates were 0.92 (0.80–0.98) for females and 0.96 (0.79–1.00) for males, with a scale of detected movements for all recapture birds ranging from 3–52 km. Our results indicate that wintering aggregations may be demographically independent at a much finer spatial scale than genetic data indicate, and that conservation efforts should recognize this degree of demographic separation among population segments.

Alaska↗

Reproductive ecology of American Oystercatchers nesting on shell rakes

Degradation of nesting habitat for coastal birds has led to the use of nontraditional nesting habitat. The American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) is listed as a "Species of High Concern'' by the U. S. Shorebird Conservation Plan and is declining in the southern portion of its U. S. breeding range, where ~ 50% of breeding oystercatchers nest on shell substrate instead of beachfront habitat. We measured daily survival rates during incubation and chick rearing in shell rake habitats over five breeding seasons in the Cape Romain region of South Carolina, USA. Of 354 nesting attempts monitored, 16.1% hatched at least one egg. During incubation, daily survival rate was 0.938, corresponding to 22.8% success to hatching (nest success). For broods, daily survival was 0.991, or 74.0% success from hatching to fledging. Productivity in the Cape Romain region is primarily being lost during the incubation phase, when nests are exposed to overwash and predation. Mobile chicks may, however, be able to avoid flood events or predators by relocating to higher or more protected portions of a shell rake. Based on comparative data for American Oystercatchers from elsewhere in their range, it does not appear that shell rakes in the Cape Romain region are inferior breeding habitat. Our data suggest that conservation actions targeting nest and chick loss from flooding and predation have the greatest opportunity to enhance reproductive success in this core breeding area, and that an assessment of the availability, structure, avian use, and protection status of shell rakes is warranted.

Condor↗

New faunal records from a World Heritage Site in danger: Rennell Island, Solomon Islands

Remote oceanic islands have high potential to harbor unique fauna and flora, but opportunities to conduct in-depth biotic surveys are often limited. Furthermore, underrepresentation of existing biodiversity in the literature has the potential to detract from conservation planning and action. Between 18 and 29 October 2018, we surveyed the terrestrial vertebrates of East Rennell, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Solomon Islands. We documented 56 species, including 15 squamates, 13 mammals, and 38 birds, and present four new vertebrate records for the island: Stephan's emerald dove ( Chalcophaps stephani ), Maluku myotis ( Myotis moluccarum ), littoral skink ( Emoia atrocostata ) and brahminy blindsnake ( Indotyphlops braminus ). East Rennell was designated a World Heritage site for its significant on-going ecological and biological processes, and importance for the study of island biogeography. The new records presented here provide evidence that continued field studies combined with DNA analysis will continue to uncover even greater endemic biodiversity. Rennell is currently experiencing major habitat destruction in parts of the island that are not under World Heritage protection, and we anticipate collateral damage will likely extend into protected areas. Our survey also underscores the incredible vertebrate biodiversity that stands to be lost unless conservation actions and local community needs are intertwined to promote beneficial outcomes on both fronts.

Pacific Science↗

Flexible migration and habitat use strategies of an endangered waterbird during hydrological drought

Wildlife species confront threats from climate and land use change, exacerbating the influence of extreme climatic events on populations and biodiversity. Migratory waterbirds are especially vulnerable to hydrological drought via reduced availability of surface water habitats. We assessed how whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) modified habitat use and migration strategies during drought to evaluate their resilience to changing conditions and adaptive capacity. We categorized >8000 night-roost sites used by 146 cranes from 2010 to 2022 and examined relative use during non-drought, moderate drought, and extreme drought conditions. We found cultivated and uncultivated palustrine and lacustrine wetlands were generally used less during droughts than non-drought conditions. Conversely, impounded palustrine and lacustrine systems and rivers served more frequently as drought refugia (i.e., used more during drought than non-drought conditions). Night roosts occurred primarily on private lands (86% overall); public land use decreased with latitude and increased with drought severity, with greatest use (56%) occurring during severe autumn drought in the southern Great Plains. Quantifying use of identified critical habitats in the United States indicated that Cheyenne Bottoms State Waterfowl Management Area and Quivira National Wildlife Refuge were used less during drought, and the Central Platte River and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge received similar use during drought compared to non-drought conditions. Our findings provide insights into compensatory use of habitats, where impounded surface water may function in a complementary fashion with natural wetlands. Collectively, these and other types of wetlands distributed across the migration corridor provided a reliable network of habitat available across the Great Plains. A diversity of wetlands available during variable environmental conditions would be useful in supporting continued recovery of whooping cranes and likely have benefits for a wide array of migratory birds.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Black oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) population size, use of marine reserve complexes, and spatial distribution in Oregon

The Black Oystercatcher is a large shorebird found along the west coast of North America. Because of their small global population size, low reproductive rate, and dependence on rocky intertidal habitats, they are considered a “species of high conservation concern” and may act as an indicator of intertidal ecosystem health. In 2015, the Audubon Society of Portland initiated a 3-year shore-based population survey in Oregon building upon long-term monitoring previously conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others. The objectives were to 1) Estimate the current minimum population of breeding Black Oystercatchers in Oregon and to compare that to previous estimates to better understand the population trend; 2) Document oystercatcher abundance adjacent to the Oregon’s system of Marine Reserves and Marine Protected Areas; and 3) Describe spatial distribution of breeding oystercatchers along the coast. We targeted all rocky shoreline habitats along Oregon’s coastline to perform abundance surveys each spring. A total of 75 survey routes were sampled using a standardized protocol. Trained volunteer community scientists conducted the majority of the surveys. We used N-mixture statistical models to estimate oystercatcher population size and probability of detection. Population estimates from the best fitting models were consistent, with estimates ranging from 506 oystercatchers in 2016 (95% credible interval, 463-560) to 629 (548-743) in 2015. These estimates indicated a small but stable population. Probability of detection remained consistent across years (ranging from 0.51 to 0.53). The effect of geographic region corresponded with greater bird density in the southern region of Oregon. Oystercatcher abundance adjacent to MR/MPAs accounted for between 12.4-18.3% of the total population estimate which was lower than expected (~25%). We recommend that subsequent conservation efforts directed on Black Oystercatchers in Oregon balance limiting human disturbance, particularly on the north and central coasts, with ensuring protection of core habitats on the south coast where much of the population resides.

Oregon↗

Vegetation changes over 12 years in ungrazed and grazed Conservation Reserve Program Grasslands in the central and southern plains

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) established under the 1985 Food Security Act has the fundamental objectives of jointly providing economic support to segments of the agricultural community and conservation of natural resources (Osborn, 1997; Heard and others, 2000). Although soil loss on highly erodable lands was the principal natural resource conservation issue addressed in the 1985 CRP, improving water quality and wildlife habitat both became important considerations as the program evolved (Farmer and others, 1988). For example, Best and others (1997) found that production of young birds on CRP fields in the Midwest was ≥15 times the production on row-crop fields because of improved habitat. The increasing importance of wildlife habitat is reflected in continuing refinement of the Environmental Benefits Index (EBI) used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to quantify the potential benefits of enrolling lands in CRP (Osborn, 1997; Ribaudo and others, 2001). The refinements reflect input furnished by federal, state, and non-government organizations seeking greater wildlife habitat quality on CRP lands (Roseberry and David, 1994; Hughes and others, 1995; Millenbah and others, 1996; Patterson and Best, 1996; Rodgers, 1999; Allen and others, 2001). Refinement in the EBI has changed the types of grasses planted on newly enrolled land. In early CRP signups (1 through 11), 71% of new grassland acres were planted to introduced grasses and legumes [Conservation Practice (CP) 1] while 29% of the acres were planted to native grasses (CP2) (Osborn and others, 1992). By the 27th signup in July 2004, over 34.8 million acres (14 million ha) were enrolled in the CRP. More than 73% of these lands were planted to various mixtures of introduced (CP1) or native (CP2) grasses for a minimal contract period of 10 years (USDA, 2004). Continuation of grass plantings under the 2002 Farm Bill may result in CRP lands furnishing grass dominated cover for 20 or more consecutive years. The species of grass established in seeded grasslands can have a major influence on the potential quality of wildlife habitat where vegetation is maintained over a multi-year period. Different species of grass may have comparable abilities to alleviate soil erosion but furnish dissimilar qualities of wildlife habitat (fig. 1). For example, smooth brome, an introduced cool-season grass (grass species and scientific names are presented in table 1), is highly valued for its erosion control and forage attributes (Casler and Carlson, 1995). Switchgrass, a native warm-season grass, also is valued for its soil and water conservation qualities (Moser and Vogel, 1995) but provides greater benefits for some species of wildlife (Clubine, 1995). The quality of nesting and winter cover for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) furnished by smooth brome on northeastern Colorado CRP lands is inferior to that provided by the taller, more robust switchgrass (Allen, 1994). Characteristics of the agricultural landscape surrounding individual CRP fields also play a role in the wildlife habitat potential of CRP plantings (Weber and others, 2002; Nusser and others, 2004). of native and seeded grasslands change in response to the presence (and absence) of physical disturbances such as fire, grazing, tillage, and haying (Hobbs and Huenneke, 1992; Millenbah and others, 1996; Allen and others, 2001; Renfrew and Ribic, 2001; Swengel and Swengel, 2001). The perpetuation of diversity in species composition and vegetation structure following disturbance sustains desirable habitat for a variety of grassland-dependent wildlife (Hall and Willig, 1994; Barnes and others, 1995; King and Savidge, 1995; Granfors and others, 1996; Herkert and others, 1996; Kurzejeski, 1996; Patterson and Best, 1996; Klute and others, 1997). Undisturbed grasslands have lower grass and forb species diversity, greater amounts of dead plant material, decreased as well as seasonally delayed productivity, and diminished structural diversity of vegetation (Peet and others, 1975; Rice and Parenti, 1978; Butler and Briske, 1988; Campa and Winterstein, 1992). Recommendations for the timing of disturbance to increase grass and forb species diversity range from 3 to 8 years following establishment of seeded grasslands in the northern Great Plains and Midwest (Duebbert and others, 1981; Higgens, 1987; Millenbah and others, 1996). The management interval, however, is affected by climatic conditions, soils, grass species, and management history of the individual stand. We quantified changes in vegetation structure and species composition across the typical 10-year contract period in undisturbed southern and central Great Plains CRP fields (fig. 2) planted to introduced and native grasses. In addition, we compared changes in vegetation in fields grazed during the emergency release of 1996 by comparing conditions prior to grazing and two and four years post grazing relative to changes in similar fields that were not grazed. Documentation of long-term changes in vegetation structure and composition for fields planted to common grass seed mixtures across a wide range of environmental conditions provides information to improve long-term wildlife habitat potential, guide program administration, and define management practices that yield economic benefits to operators while still meeting wildlife and conservation objectives. Emergency grazing provisions of the CRP are controversial. Although grazing can alter vegetative characteristics and reduce habitat quality in the short-term (Temple and others, 1999), periodic disturbance may be necessary to maintain habitat quality, and more information is needed assessing long-term effects of emergency grazing on vegetative structure and species composition.

Conference Paper↗

Leveraging relationships between species abundances to improve predictions and inform conservation

Many management and conservation contexts can benefit from understanding relationships between species abundances, which can be used to improve predictions of species occurrence and abundance. We present conditional prediction as a tool to capture information about species abundances via residual covariance between species. From a fitted joint species distribution model, this framework produces a species coefficient matrix that contains relationships between species abundances. The species coefficients allow co-observed species to be treated as a second set of predictors supplementing covariates in the model to improve prediction. We use simulations to demonstrate the potential benefits and limitations of conditional prediction across data types and species covariance before applying conditional prediction to two management contexts with real data. Simulations demonstrate that conditional prediction provides the largest benefits to continuous data and when there is residual covariance between many species. In our first application, we show that conditioning on other species improves in-sample and out-of-sample predictions of fish and invertebrate species, including Atlantic cod. In our second application, we show that the species coefficient matrix can be used to identify bird species at risk of nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds. Synthesis and applications . We present guidelines for using conditional prediction, which can help understand relationships between species abundances, improve predictions and inform conservation in a variety of contexts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Conservation of migratory raptors: An overview based on fifty years of raptor banding

During the 50-year period 1931-80, 422,000 raptors were banded in the United States and Canada. Encounter rates were calculated, by decades of banding, for all birds reported outside of the l0-min block of latitude and longitude where they had been banded. Encounter rates for the various raptor species decreased from about 15-25% in the 1930s to about 1-5% in the 1970s. The percentage of encounters that were reported as shot also decreased sharply, from 55-85% for most species in the 1930s to 3-16% in the 1970s, reflecting the increase in protective state and federal legislation. During the same period the percentage of raptors found dead increased. In contrast, no such trends were apparent in raptors encountered south of the United States

Book chapter↗