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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2021

NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development

In this article, we present an overview of the research project NGA-East, Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), and summarize the key methodology and products. The project was tasked with developing a new ground motion characterization (GMC) model for CENA. The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 median ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA, PGV) and response spectral ordinates for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The NGA-East GMMs are applicable to horizontal components of ground motions on very hard rock, for the moment magnitude range of 4.0–8.2, and distances of up to 1500 km. The aleatory standard deviations of GMMs are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) applications (ergodic standard deviation). In addition, adjustment factors are provided for source depth and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast Region. During the course of the project, several innovative technologies were developed and implemented to increase the transparency and repeatability of the GMC building process. This involved expanding on a set of candidate median GMMs to define and capture an appropriate range of epistemic uncertainty in ground motions. We also developed a new approach for modeling the aleatory variability that was completely independent of the median GMMs. The development made extensive use of the CENA database but also borrowed data from other parts of the world when relevant and led to an integrated suite of models. Through this repeatable process, epistemic uncertainty could be quantified more objectively than before, relying less on expert opinion. The NGA-East project went through a comprehensive Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 peer review process before its release.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2021

Selection of random vibration theory procedures for the NGA-East project and ground-motion modeling

Traditional ground-motion models (GMMs) are used to compute pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) from future earthquakes and are generally developed by regression of PSA using a physics-based functional form. PSA is a relatively simple metric that correlates well with the response of several engineering systems and is a metric commonly used in engineering evaluations; however, characteristics of the PSA calculation make application of scaling factors dependent on the frequency content of the input motion, complicating the development and adaptability of GMMs. By comparison, Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) represents ground-motion amplitudes that are completely independent from the amplitudes at other frequencies, making them an attractive alternative for GMM development. Random vibration theory (RVT) predicts the peak response of motion in the time domain based on the FAS and a duration, and thus can be used to relate FAS to PSA. Using RVT to compute the expected peak response in the time domain for given FAS therefore presents a significant advantage that is gaining traction in the GMM field. This article provides recommended RVT procedures relevant to GMM development, which were developed for the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-East project. In addition, an orientation-independent FAS metric—called the effective amplitude spectrum (EAS)—is developed for use in conjunction with RVT to preserve the mean power of the corresponding two horizontal components considered in traditional PSA-based modeling (i.e., RotD50). The EAS uses a standardized smoothing approach to provide a practical representation of the FAS for ground-motion modeling, while minimizing the impact on the four RVT properties ( zeroth moment, m0 ; bandwidth parameter, δ ; frequency of zero crossings, fz ; and frequency of extrema, fe ). Although the recommendations were originally developed for NGA-East, they and the methodology they are based on can be adapted to become portable to other GMM and engineering problems requiring the computation of PSA from FAS.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2021

NGA-Subduction research program

This article summarizes the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Subduction (NGA-Sub) project, a major research program to develop a database and ground motion models (GMMs) for subduction regions. A comprehensive database of subduction earthquakes recorded worldwide was developed. The database includes a total of 214,020 individual records from 1,880 subduction events, which is by far the largest database of all the NGA programs. As part of the NGA-Sub program, four GMMs were developed. Three of them are global subduction GMMs with adjustment factors for up to seven worldwide regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. The fourth GMM is a new Japan-specific model. The GMMs provide median predictions, and the associated aleatory variability, of RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Three GMMs also quantified “within-model” epistemic uncertainty of the median prediction, which is important in regions with sparse ground motion data, such as Cascadia. In addition, a damping scaling model was developed to scale the predicted 5%-damped PSA of horizontal components to other damping ratios ranging from 0.5% to 30%. The NGA-Sub flatfile, which was used for the development of the NGA-Sub GMMs, and the NGA-Sub GMMs coded on various software platforms, have been posted for public use.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2022

Hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation validation of small magnitude active shallow crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

This article presents a comprehensive validation of the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation approach (via the commonly used Graves and Pitarka method) in a New Zealand context with small magnitude point source ruptures using an extensive set of 5218 ground motions recorded at 212 sites from 479 active shallow crustal earthquakes across the country. Modifications to the simulation method inferred from a previous New Zealand validation are implemented, and the improvements are explicitly quantified. Empirical ground-motion models are also considered to provide a benchmark for simulation prediction accuracy and precision. Examination of intensity measure residuals identifies that the simulation method modifications lead to reduced model prediction bias and within-event variability and provides evidence toward the use of spatially varying coefficient models for simulation parameters, such as the high-frequency Brune stress parameter. Additional biases identified include, among others, underprediction of significant durations at soft soil sites and overprediction of short-period pseudo-spectral accelerations at stiff alluvial gravel and rock sites due to low-estimated 30 m time-averaged shear-wave velocity values.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2023

Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

The need for US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) to report estimates of epistemic uncertainties in the hazard (e.g. fractile hazard curves) in all forthcoming releases is increasing. With fractile hazard curves as potential new outputs from the USGS 2023 NSHM, a simultaneous need is to help end-users better understand these epistemic uncertainties and clarify their potential uses. In this article, we address the latter need by (1) characterizing epistemic uncertainties in two updates of the USGS NSHM (2014 for California and 2021 for Hawaii), (2) illustrating a variety of downstream applications of fractile hazard curves in both hazard and risk contexts, and (3) discussing implications from the various types of uncertainties. We found that the epistemic uncertainty in hazard is generally larger for Hawaii than for California, the epistemic uncertainty in hazard can be reasonably approximated with a lognormal distribution for most of the cases considered, and the correlation between epistemic uncertainty in hazard at two different intensity measure levels generally varies with both location and type of intensity measure. Furthermore, we developed models for readily generating approximate fractile hazard curves in California and Hawaii. Finally, given the complexities involved in the hazard modeling process, we developed an open-source interactive tool to enable a broad range of users to independently examine and potentially start using such epistemic uncertainties for their respective applications.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2024

The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models

The US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used to calculate earthquake ground-shaking intensities for design and rehabilitation of structures in the United States. The most recent 2014 and 2018 versions of the NSHM for the conterminous United States included major updates to ground-motion models (GMMs) for active and stable crustal tectonic settings; however, the subduction zone GMMs were largely unchanged. With the recent development of the next generation attenuation-subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs, and recent progress in the utilization of “M9” Cascadia earthquake simulations, we now have access to improved models of ground shaking in the US subduction zones and the Seattle basin. The new NGA-Sub GMMs support multi-period response spectra calculations. They provide global models and regional terms specific to Cascadia and terms that account for deep-basin effects. This article focuses on the updates to subduction GMMs for implementation in the 2023 NSHM and compares them to the GMMs of previous NSHMs. Individual subduction GMMs, their weighted averages, and their impact on the estimated mean hazard relative to the 2018 NSHM are discussed. The updated logic trees include three of the new NGA-Sub GMMs and retain two older models to represent epistemic uncertainty in both the median and standard deviation of ground-shaking intensities at all periods of interest. Epistemic uncertainty is further represented by a three-point logic tree for the NGA-Sub median models. Finally, in the Seattle region, basin amplification factors are adjusted at long periods based on the state-of-the-art M9 Cascadia earthquake simulations. The new models increase the estimated mean hazard values at short periods and short source-to-site distances for interface earthquakes, but decrease them otherwise, relative to the 2018 NSHM. On softer soils, the new models cause decreases to the estimated mean hazard for long periods in the Puget Lowlands basin but increases within the deep Seattle portion of this basin for short periods relative to the 2018 NSHM.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2025

Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs

On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the earthquakes on the operations of women-owned businesses. The mixed-method study with entrepreneurs belonging to a women’s business association operating in a moderately disrupted part of the region explores their struggles and recovery expectations. Thirty-five questionnaires were analyzed to identify the reasons for business closure, challenges, and needs faced in the post-disaster period and their recovery strategies. In addition, 23 entrepreneurs participated in roundtable discussions to provide a broader context to their responses to survey topics as well as lessons learned. Across both the survey and roundtables, while many respondents reported minor physical damage to their building, they also experienced financial and personal challenges from disruption to equipment, infrastructure, services, supply chains, institutional decisions, employee well-being, and customer base. Many used their business resources and personal savings to assist employees and others in the community. The women entrepreneurs often felt their recovery needs were ignored by government and private relief organizations and encountered barriers to receiving assistance from public and private institutions. Organizing together as women in business, even informally, provided mutual support during the crisis and recovery periods and catalyzed their role in support of their communities. The results illuminate functional community recovery as a balance of recovery of built infrastructure functionality and recovery of the broader social and economic fabric of the community.

southern Turkey↗
USGS2025

Fault displacement model for surface principal rupture of strike-slip faults

The probability distribution model for principal displacement accommodated on the surface main trace is a critical input to the fault displacement hazard analysis. This article presents a new model for strike-slip ruptures in the moment magnitude ( M ) range of 6 to 8.3. The new model is the outcome of a multi-year research effort to update the widely used model developed by Petersen and others in 2011. Updates include the adoption of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative database and enhancements to rupture and displacement data preparation. Statistical formulation and estimation have also been updated substantially. A three-parameter modified normal distribution that we refer to as the negative Exponentially Modified Gaussian distribution is adopted to model the probability distribution of the natural logarithm of principal displacement. Formulation for the mean parameter of the modified normal includes a random earthquake term, a nonlinear scaling relation with M , and an ellipse function for along-main-trace variation. The aleatory variability of the updated model now depends on M as well as site’s along-main-trace position. These updates not only significantly improve the fit to the distribution of the observed displacements but also yield reasonable 95th percentile predictions for M > 7.5 events. Alternative models representing the estimation uncertainty of the M -scaling relation are also developed. These new models are compared to the previous model in terms of percentile predictions and the calculated hazard curves. The steeper hazard curves from the new models yield a lower exceedance rate than the normal-distribution based model developed previously by Petersen and others.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2024

Following the tug of the audience from complex to simplified hazards maps at Cascade Range volcanoes

Volcano-hazard maps are broadly recognized as important tools for forecasting and managing volcanic crises and for disseminating spatial information to authorities and people at risk. As scientists, we might presume that hazards maps can be developed at the time and with the methods of our discretion, yet the co-production of maps with stakeholder groups, who have programmatic needs of their own, can sway the timing, usability, and acceptance of map products. We examine two volcano hazard map-making efforts by staff at the U.S. Geological Survey. During the 1990s and early 2000s scientists developed a series of hazard assessments and maps with detailed zonations for volcanoes in Washington and Oregon. In 2009, the National Park Service expressed the need for simplified versions of the existing hazard maps for a high-profile visitor center exhibit. This request created an opportunity for scientists to rethink the objectives, scope, content, and map representations of hazards. The primary focus of this article is a discussion of processes used by scientists to distill the most critical information within the official parent maps into a series of simplified maps using criteria specified. We contextualize this project with information about development of the parent maps, public response to the simplified hazard maps, the value of user engagement in mapmaking, and with reference to the abundance of guidance available to the next generation of hazard-mapmakers. We argue that simplified versions of maps should be developed in tandem with any hazard maps that contain technical complexities, not as a replacement, but as a mechanism to broaden awareness of hazards. We found that when scientists endeavor to design vivid and easy-to-understand maps, people in many professions find uses for them within their organization’s information products, resulting in extensive distribution.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Assessing the global distribution of river fisheries harvest: A systematic map protocol

Background Although surface freshwater comprises < 0.01% of the total water volume of earth, freshwater inland capture fisheries and aquaculture represent 40% of the global reported finfish harvest. While the social, economic, and ecological importance of inland fish and fisheries is difficult to overstate, they are often undervalued and underappreciated. Accurate information about these highly dispersed fisheries is inherently difficult to acquire, often unreported, and not collected in a standardized format globally. A standardized river fishery database is needed for managing aquatic systems as well as for defining relevant development policies. Here, we describe our methodology to search, identify, and describe available river fisheries information to create a harmonized global database of river fisheries harvest. This database will provide the first global database of spatially and temporally explicit river fisheries data. The database can be used to identify locations, hotspots of data collection, and gaps in existing knowledge and will be especially important to inform studies and management at larger spatial scales (i.e., watershed, regional, or global scales). This database will also be critical for developing fish biomass models for rivers, which can provide managers with information critical for decision-making, such as improved valuation methods for river fish and fisheries. Methods This systematic map protocol describes the methodology to search, identify, and describe available information on river fish and fisheries across the globe. We define river fisheries as “both capture and aquaculture of river finfish species for food, income, or recreation”. River fish species are those finfish that live part, or all of their lives in rivers. The searches will be conducted for the period from 1950 to present using bibliographic databases and grey literature sources. To identify relevant evidence, pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be used to screen articles at title, abstract, and full text. A searchable database containing extracted meta-data from relevant included studies will be developed and presented as a geodatabase. The final systematic map will consist of a descriptive narrative report of the distribution and content of river fish literature including a geodatabase of available information.

Environmental Evidence↗
USGS2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares >1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Environmental Evidence↗
USGS1986

Archaeological prospection: An introduction to the Special Issue

Archaeological prospection, as the use of geophysical methods in archaeology is known in Europe, is about four decades old (seven decades, if aerial photography of archaeological sites is included). Virtually the entire range of geophysical methods, perhaps excluding only borehole techniques, has found application in the search for archaeological sites unseen or partially known. Pressures by developers, and the public's growing sensitivity toward the preservation of historic and prehistoric cultural artifacts and sites, has led to an accelerating use of high-resolution geophysical methods in the archaeological sciences. The archaeogeophysical articles in this Special Issue are reasonably representative of the development of this specialty field of geophysics.

Geophysics↗
USGS2002

A source-depth separation filter: Using the Euler method on the derivatives of total intensity magnetic anomaly data

Derivatives of potential-field anomalies (or the anomaly gradients) enhance the field associated with shallow features and de-emphasize the field from deeper sources. The derivative approach of separating anomalies of shallow, intermediate, and deep sourves is, however, qualitative. Semiautomatic source location methods, such as the Euler method (also variously referred to in the literature as Euler's theorem on homogeneous functions, Euler's differential equation, EULDPH, and Euler deconvolution), the analytic signal method, and Werner deconvolution, developed since the 1980s use anomaly gradients to characterize sources of anomalies (i.e., the type of sources and their locations). In this article, we investigate the benefits of applying the Euler method on derivatives of anomalies to enhance the location of shallow and deep sources. Used appropriately, the method is suitable for characterizing sources from all potential-field data and/or their derivatives, as long as the data can be regarded mathematically as “continuous.” We also explain the reasons why the use of the Euler method on derivatives of anomalies is particularly helpful in the analysis and interpretation of shallow features.

Leading Edge (Tulsa, OK)↗
USGS2009

Anomalous dispersion due to hydrocarbons: The secret of reservoir geophysics?

When P- and S-waves travel through porous sandstone saturated with hydrocarbons, a bit of magic happens to make the velocities of these waves more frequency-dependent (dispersive) than when the formation is saturated with brine. This article explores the utility of the anomalous dispersion in finding more oil and gas, as well as giving a possible explanation about the effect of hydrocarbons upon the capillary forces in the formation. ?? 2009 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

Leading Edge (Tulsa, OK)↗
USGS2011

ATV magnetometer systems for efficient ground magnetic surveying

Ground magnetic data contain information, not pre-sent in aeromagnetic data, which may be useful for precisely mapping near-surface faults and contacts, as well as constraining or aiding interpretation of other geophysical methods. However, collecting ground magnetic data on foot is labor-intensive and is therefore limited to small surveys. In this article, we present two newly developed all-terrain vehicle (ATV) magnetometer systems that significantly expand the survey area that is possible in a ground magnetic survey without greatly reducing the quality of data.

The Leading Edge↗
USGS2013

Consequences of flight height and line spacing on airborne (helicopter) gravity gradient resolution in the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado

Line spacing and flight height are critical parameters in airborne gravity gradient surveys; the optimal trade-off between survey costs and desired resolution, however, is different for every situation. This article investigates the additional benefit of reducing the flight height and line spacing though a study of a survey conducted over the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, which is the highest-resolution public-domain airborne gravity gradient data set available, with overlapping high- and lower-resolution surveys. By using Fourier analysis and matched filtering, it is shown that while the lower-resolution survey delineates the target body, reducing the flight height from 80 m to 40 m and the line spacing from 100 m to 50 m improves the recoverable resolution even at basement depths.

Colorado↗
USGS1989

Effect of site conditions on ground motion and damage

Results of seismologic studies conducted by the U.S. reconnaissance team in conjunction with Soviet colleagues following the tragic earthquakes of December 7, 1988, suggest that site conditions may have been a major factor in contributing to increased damage levels in Leninakan. As the potential severity of these effects in Leninakan had not been previously identified, this chapter presents results intended to provide a preliminary quantification of these effects on both damage and levels of ground motion observed in Leninakan. The article describes the damage distribution geologic setting, ground motion amplification in Leninakan, including analog amplifications and spectral amplifications. Preliminary model estimates for site response are presented. It is concluded that ground motion amplification in the 0.5-2.5-second period range was a major contributing factor to increased damage in Leninakan as compared with Kirovakan. Leninakan is located on thick water saturated alluvial deposits.

Shirak↗
USGS2011

Developing empirical collapse fragility functions for global building types

Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in terms of macroseismic intensity. This article provides a simple procedure for quantifying collapse fragility using vulnerability criteria based on the European Macroseismic Scale (1998) for selected European building types. In addition, the collapse fragility functions are developed for global building types by fitting the beta distribution to the multiple experts’ estimates for the same building type (obtained from EERI’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE)-PAGER survey). Finally, using the collapse probability distributions at each shaking intensity level as a prior and field-based collapse-rate observations as likelihood, it is possible to update the collapse fragility functions for global building types using the Bayesian procedure.

Earthquake Spectra↗