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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2023

The unmarked R package: Twelve years of advances in occurrence and abundance modelling in ecology

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely applied to understand the processes governing spatial and temporal variation in species abundance and distribution but often do not account for measurement errors such as false negatives and false positives. We describe unmarked , a package for the freely available and open-source R software that provides a complete workflow for modelling species distribution and abundance while explicitly accounting for measurement errors. Here we focus on recent advances in unmarked functionality to support multi-species, multi-state, and multi-season data, as well as support for fitting models with random effects. For illustration, we present an analysis of Acadian Flycatcher Empidonax virescens abundance on Roanoke River National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina, USA, over 18 years. We found that Acadian Flycatcher abundance was initially greater in hardwood plantation habitat relative to bottomland hardwood forest along river levees but that abundance declined over time in both habitats. We plan for unmarked development to keep pace with advances in hierarchical modelling in ecology, including better handling of continuous-time data from camera trap and automated recording units and integrated models for multiple data streams.

Methods in Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS1997

Trout production dynamics and water quality in Minnesota streams

We sampled fish assemblages and quantified production dynamics of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis , brown trout Salmo trutta , and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in 13 southeastern Minnesota streams during 1988–1990 to examine the influence of water quality on fish populations in fertile trout streams. Fish assemblages in 15 stream reaches were abundant, but low in diversity; 13 species were collected. Parameter means (ranges) over the reaches were species richness, 4.1 (1–8); density, 29,490 (1,247–110,602) fish/ha; and biomass, 253.5 (49.6–568.6) kg/ha. Means (ranges) for salmonids were annual mean density, 2,279 (343–8,096) fish/ha; annual mean biomass, 162.0 (32.5–355.5) kg/ha; and annual production, 155.6 (36.7–279.6) kg/ha. Salmonid production and mean biomass were greater during the spring‐fall interval than during fall‐spring; young cohorts (ages 0–1) contributed the greatest proportion to population biomass and production. Salmonid annual production‐to‐mean‐biomass ratio (P/B) averaged 1.06 (0.64–1.42), and means were significantly different among species (1.03 for brown trout, 1.54 for brook trout, and 1.92 for rainbow trout). A significant linear model was developed that describes P/B as an inverse function of population age structure and may be used to improve accuracy in approximations of annual production from mean biomass. Fish density, biomass, or production were not correlated with eight water quality variables describing ionic and nutrient content in these streams, but when data from other United States streams with a wide range in alkalinity were incorporated, salmonid production was strongly, positively correlated with alkalinity. The wide range in fish population and production statistics and their lack of correlation with water quality suggest that no uniform fish carrying capacity exists among these streams and that factors other than water fertility limit fish density, biomass, and productivity at this spatial scale, but the overall maximum production rate in the region may be governed by water quality.

Minnesota↗
USGS1998

U.S. Geological Survey Real-Time River Data Applications

Real-time river data provided by the USGS originate from streamflow-gaging stations. The USGS operates and maintains a network of more than 7,000 such stations across the nation (Mason and Wieger, 1995). These gaging stations, used to produce records of stage and streamflow data, are operated in cooperation with local, state, and other federal agencies. The USGS office in Indianapolis operates a statewide network of more than 170 gaging stations. The instrumentation at USGS gaging stations monitors and records river information, primarily river stage (fig. 1). As technological advances are made, many USGS gaging stations are being retrofitted with electronic instrumentation to monitor and record river data. Electronic instrumentation facilitates transmission of real-time or near real-time river data for use by government agencies in such flood-related tasks as operating flood-control structures and ordering evacuations.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1962

Red iron-ore beds of Silurian age in northeastern Alabama, northwestern Georgia, and eastern Tennessee

Mining and smelting of iron ore in Alabama, northwestern Georgia, and eastern Tennessee date almost to Revolutionary War days, bus substantial production in the Southeast was not attained until after 1850. Numerous furnaces were erected int the region, especially in and near Birmingham, Ala., which is still the principal iron and steel-making center of the area. Locally mined iron ores formed the principal feed of the furnaces, and much of the ore was mined from red beds of Silurian age. These red beds are an abundant resource of iron ore, and they account for a large part of the total production in the Southeastern United States. Exhaustion of near-surface ores, which was easily mined and the best grade, combined with improved transportation and economies of large-scale operations elsewhere, forced most of the furnaces to shut down (Edpt. of the Interior, 1959, production statistics and tables 4-9). Geological studies have determined the lithology and approximate extent of the red iron ores of Silurian age in the Southeast. Detailed investigations have been made by private companies and government agencies. Most of this work has been in the Birmingham, Ala., district, and the remainder of the region has relatively little study in recent years.

Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee↗
USGS2010

Southwestern desert resources

The southwestern deserts stretch from southeastern California to west Texas and then south to central Mexico. The landscape of this region is known as basin and range topography featuring to "sky islands" of forest rising from the desert lowlands which creates a uniquely diverse ecology. The region is further complicated by an international border, where governments have caused difficulties for many animal populations. This book puts a spotlight on individual research projects which are specific examples of work being done in the area and when they are all brought together, to shed a general light of understanding the biological and cultural resources of this vast region so that those same resources can be managed as effectively and efficiently as possible. The intent is to show that collaborative efforts among federal, state agency, university, and private sector researchers working with land managers, provides better science and better management than when scientists and land managers work independently.

Book↗
USGS1997

Perceptions of species abundance, distribution, and diversity: Lessons from four decades of sampling on a government-managed reserve

We examined data relative to species abundance, distribution, and diversity patterns of reptiles and amphibians to determine how perceptions change over time and with level of sampling effort. Location data were compiled on more than one million individual captures or observations of 98 species during a 44-year study period on the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site National Environmental Research Park (SRS-NERP) in South Carolina. We suggest that perceptions of herpetofaunal species diversity are strongly dependent on level of effort and that land management decisions based on short-term data bases for some faunal groups could result in serious errors in environmental management. We provide evidence that acquiring information on biodiversity distribution patterns is compatible with multiyear spatially extensive research programs and also provide a perspective of what might be achieved if long-term, coordinated research efforts were instituted nationwide. To conduct biotic surveys on government-managed lands, we recommend revisions in the methods used by government agencies to acquire and report biodiversity data. We suggest that government and industry employees engaged in biodiversity survey efforts develop proficiency in field identification for one or more major taxonomic groups and be encouraged to measure the status of populations quantitatively with consistent and reliable methodologies. We also suggest that widespread academic cooperation in the dissemination of information on regional patterns of biodiversity could result by establishment of a peer-reviewed, scientifically rigorous journal concerned with status and trends of the biota of the United States.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2010

A new capture fraction method to map how pumpage affects surface water flow

All groundwater pumped is balanced by removal of water somewhere, initially from storage in the aquifer and later from capture in the form of increase in recharge and decrease in discharge. Capture that results in a loss of water in streams, rivers, and wetlands now is a concern in many parts of the United States. Hydrologists commonly use analytical and numerical approaches to study temporal variations in sources of water to wells for select points of interest. Much can be learned about coupled surface/groundwater systems, however, by looking at the spatial distribution of theoretical capture for select times of interest. Development of maps of capture requires (1) a reasonably well-constructed transient or steady state model of an aquifer with head-dependent flow boundaries representing surface water features or evapotranspiration and (2) an automated procedure to run the model repeatedly and extract results, each time with a well in a different location. This paper presents new methods for simulating and mapping capture using three-dimensional groundwater flow models and presents examples from Arizona, Oregon, and Michigan. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association. No claim to original US government works.

Ground Water↗
USGS1969

Water for the cities - The outlook

Except perhaps for the arid Southwest, water resources are generally sufficient to meet the needs of cities for the foreseeable future. Cities will continue to expand and additional rural areas will be converted to urban and suburban complexes. Demands for urban water will continue to rise and this will place a heavy strain on existing systems. Cities have always faced water problems. This has largely been the result of 'crisis planning' or apathy. Immediate needs and minimum cost have been the governing criteria in solving water problems, as cities developed local supplies unilaterally and only at scales to meet local foreseeable demands. Most city water problems, however, have not been the result of shortages of sources of water but rather the result of overtaxed collection, storage, and distribution systems. This is verified by the experience of the Northeast during the recent prolonged drought. Rapid expansion of urban areas, particularly in the large metropolitan complexes of the United States, is placing urban political entities in ever closer juxtaposition to each other. The large demand for water for each entity is resulting in competition for available sources and is rapidly reaching critical proportions. Increasing awareness of the role of water in our society further complicates this competition. Pollution abatement, recreation, wildlife conservation, and aesthetics are demands now recognized by both rural and urban areas. Future development of water resources must consider regional demands and resources. Only in this way can our reasonably abundant water resources meet the severe demands imposed by our rapidly expanding urban areas.

Circular↗
USGS1954

The flood control controversy: Big dams, little dams, and land management

The purpose of this book is to investigate the facts regarding flood control, a subject that has given rise to extreme controversy in the United States in recent years. The question of flood control is obviously a vital one not only to the United States but to many other countries. It is hoped that this book may lead to a far clearer understanding of the facts involved and so may prove a truly important influence in reconciling existing differences of opinion. Most of the material presented here has not previously been available to the general reader nor has it been easily accessible to professional people. Much of it, in fact, has been gathered by the authors from unpublished reports of government agencies and from discussions with technicians in the field. Part of the material, on the other hand, such as the sections on flood plain formation and the hydrologic effect of small dams, stems from original research by the authors.

Book↗
USGS2020

Assessing the state of water resource knowledge and tools for future planning in the lower Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin

The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin (hereinafter referred to as the Rio Grande) is a transboundary basin, with the Rio Grande forming the border between the United States and Mexico for approximately 2,034 km. The waters of the Rio Grande serve as a critical drinking source for 13 million people, connecting numerous population centers representing diverse backgrounds and cultures along its length. Cross-border ecosystems and communities make water management strategies particularly challenging. With different regulations and societal interests in the two countries, developing effective water-management strategies is challenging and requires the coordination of diverse interested parties representing different government agencies, institutions, and stakeholder groups with varying and sometimes conflicting objectives. To better evaluate the human and environmental water needs (environmental flows) of this constrained river system, an improved understanding of past and present water management objectives, policies, allocation practices, and water use is needed.

Lower Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin↗
USGS2021

The future of managing ungulate species: White-tailed deer as a case study

The future challenge to managing ungulate populations to meet objectives is likely to become more difficult as participation in recreational hunting declines and ungulate populations become more abundant. The authors use the white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in North America as a case study to illustrate the management challenges facing decision makers. In states with fewer licensed deer hunters and large urban areas, changes solely to season length and bag limits may be insufficient to control deer populations. Incentivizing antlerless harvest beyond traditional reasons of recreation and sustenance may be necessary. The chapter provides a description of a future in which multiple methods will be required to control deer populations that likely will require an adaptive management approach. Methods other than hunting will incur higher costs to landowners and government agencies, and acceptable methods will depend on resident attitudes toward lethal and nonlethal control measures and costs.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Knowledge and understanding of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande–San Acacia, New Mexico, to Fort Quitman, Texas, and plan for future studies and monitoring

Availability of water in the Rio Grande Basin has long been a primary concern for water-resource managers. The transport and delivery of water in the basin have been engineered by using reservoirs, irrigation canals and drains, and transmountain-water diversions to meet the agricultural, residential, and industrial demand. In contrast, despite the widespread recognition of critical water-quality problems, there have been minimal management efforts to improve water quality in the Rio Grande. Of greatest concern is salinization (concentration of dissolved solids approaching 1,000 mg/L), a water-quality problem that has been recognized and researched for more than 100 years because of the potential to limit both agricultural and municipal use. To address the issue of salinization, water-resource managers need to have a clear conceptual understanding of the sources of salinity and the factors that control storage and transport, identify critical knowledge gaps in this conceptual understanding, and develop a research plan to address these gaps and develop a salinity management program. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) initiated a project to summarize the current state of knowledge regarding the transport of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande between San Acacia, New Mexico, and Fort Quitman, Texas. The primary objective is to provide hydrologic information pertaining to the spatial and temporal variability present in the concentrations and loads of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande, the source-specific budget for the mass of dissolved solids transported along the Rio Grande, and the locations at which dissolved solids enter the Rio Grande. Dissolved-solids concentration data provide a good indicator of the general quality of surface water and provide information on the factors governing salinization within the Rio Grande study area. The pattern in dissolved-solids concentrations along the Rio Grande is one of increasing concentration with increasing distance downstream from Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs. The concentration of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande doubles (approximately 500 to 1,000 mg/L) from below Elephant Butte Reservoir to El Paso and increases by more than a factor of 5 (approximately 500 to 3,200 mg/L) from below Elephant Butte Reservoir to Fort Quitman. Marked increases in the concentration of dissolved solids commonly coincide with contributions from agricultural drains, wastewater-treatment plants, regional groundwater, and upward-flowing saline groundwater. The greatest factor, from the surface-water system, in controlling dissolved solids in the Rio Grande is the amount of water that is being transported or stored. Annual variation in streamflow is influenced primarily by climate (precipitation and evaporation) and management of Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs (water storage and release cycles). Seasonal variation in streamflow within the Rio Grande study area is generally categorized generally as irrigation (March–September) and nonirrigation (October–February) seasons; with streamflow in the Rio Grande is highest during the irrigation season and lowest during the nonirrigation season. Dissolved-solids loads during the irrigation season decrease between Leasburg and Fort Quitman primarily because of irrigation diversions and losses to the underlying alluvial aquifer. Conversely, dissolved-solids loads during the nonirrigation season increase between Caballo Dam and Fort Quitman primarily because of the inflow of dissolved solids from agricultural drains, wastewater-treatment plants, and groundwater with elevated concentrations of dissolved solids. Many studies have mass-balance budgets that account for the mass of dissolved solids transported along the Rio Grande. Results from mass-balance budgets developed for dissolved solids indicated that (1) the inflow of saline groundwater, inflow of regional groundwater, and chemical reactions between mineral phases are the primary sources controlling dissolved solids in the Rio Grande, and (2) groundwater pumping and mineral precipitation are causing a net storage of dissolved solids in the Leasburg to El Paso and El Paso to Fort Quitman reaches of the Rio Grande. Looking forward, multiple water-resource managers from State and local agencies in New Mexico and Texas and Federal agencies formed the Rio Grande Salinity Management Coalition with the goal to reduce the amount of dissolved solids that are transported and stored in the Rio Grande study area. The recommendations for additional monitoring to assist the coalition are as follows: -Monitoring: Couple water-quality and streamflow monitoring in the Rio Grande and agricultural drains; perform groundwater-seepage investigations in the Rio Grande and major agricultural drains; nonitor groundwater water-quality conditions in the Mesilla and Hueco Basins. -Focused Hydrogeology Studies at Inflow Sources: Map dissolved-solids concentrations in the Rio Grande and underlying alluvial aquifer; perform hydrogeologic characterization of subsurface areas containing unusually high concentrations of dissolved solids. -Modeling of Dissolved Solids: Develop models to simulate the transport and storage of dissolved solids in both surface-water and groundwater systems.

New Mexico;Texas↗
USGS2024

Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

Climate Risk Management↗
USGS2017

Antimony

Antimony is an important mineral commodity used widely in modern industrialized societies. The element imparts strength, hardness, and corrosion resistance to alloys that are used in many areas of industry, including in lead-acid storage batteries. Antimony’s leading use is as a fire retardant in safety equipment and in household goods, such as mattresses. The U.S. Government has considered antimony to be a critical mineral mainly because of its use in military applications. The great majority of the world’s antimony comes from China, and much of the remainder is shipped to China for smelting. Antimony resources are unevenly distributed around the world. China has the bulk of the world’s identified resources; other countries that have identified antimony resources include Bolivia, Canada, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Tajikistan, and Turkey. Resources in the United States are located mainly in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada. The most significant antimony mineral deposits occur in geologic environments with a thick sequence of siliciclastic sedimentary rocks in areas with significant fault and fracture systems. The most common antimony ore mineral is stibnite (Sb2 S3 ), but more than 100 other minerals also contain antimony. The presence of antimony in surface waters and groundwaters results primarily from rock weathering, soil runoff, and anthropogenic sources. Global emissions of antimony to the atmosphere average 6,100 metric tons per year. Empirical data suggest that the acid-generating potential of antimony mine waste is low.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1996

A watershed-scale approach to tracing metal contamination in the environment

Introduction Public policy during the 1800's encouraged mining in the western United States. Mining on Federal lands played an important role in the growing economy creating national wealth from our abundant and diverse mineral resource base. The common industrial practice from the early days of mining through about 1970 in the U.S. was for mine operators to dispose of the mine wastes and mill tailings in the nearest stream reach or lake. As a result of this contamination, many stream reaches below old mines, mills, and mining districts and some major rivers and lakes no longer support aquatic life. Riparian habitats within these affected watersheds have also been impacted. Often, the water from these affected stream reaches is generally not suitable for drinking, creating a public health hazard. The recent Department of Interior Abandoned Mine Lands ( AML ) Initiative is an effort on the part of the Federal Government to address the adverse environmental impact of these past mining practices on Federal lands. The AML Initiative has adopted a watershed approach to determine those sites that contribute the majority of the contaminants in the watershed. By remediating the largest sources of contamination within the watershed, the impact of metal contamination in the environment within the watershed as a whole is reduced rather than focusing largely on those sites for which principal responsible parties can be found. The scope of the problem of metal contamination in the environment from past mining practices in the coterminous U.S. is addressed in a recent report by Ferderer (1996). Using the USGS 1:2,000,000-scale hydrologic drainage basin boundaries and the USGS Minerals Availability System ( MAS ) data base, he plotted the distribution of 48,000 past-producing metal mines on maps showing the boundaries of lands administered by the various Federal Land Management Agencies ( FLMA ). Census analysis of these data provided an initial screening tool for prioritization of watersheds in the western U.S. A different approach to the scope of the abandoned mine problem (Church et al., 1996a) is shown by the water quality data collected by the States under the Clean Water Act, section 305(b). These data document the stream reaches affected by metals from naturally occurring sources as well as from mining, or mineral resource extraction. Permitted discharges from active industrial and mine sites are not covered in the 305(b) data base. Local citizens and state and federal agencies are all part of the collaborative decision process used to select the drainage basins chosen for the AML Initiative pilot studies. Data gathered by these three entities were brought to bear on the watershed selection process. The USGS prepared data available from Federal data bases in the form of interpretative GIS products. Maps of the states of Colorado (Plumlee et al., 1995) and a similar study of the state of Montana ( USGS , unpublished data) were used to select the Animas watershed in southwestern Colorado and the Boulder watershed southwest of Helena Montana as the pilot study areas for the AML Initiative. Thus, the watersheds selected for study were public decisions made on the basis of available scientific data. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey in the Abandoned Mine Land Initiative is outlined in Buxton et al. (1997). The watershed approach to metals contamination in the environment has been studied in several drainage basins (Church et al., 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996b; Kimball et al., 1995). The underlying principles used to successfully discriminate between sources and to quantify the impact of these sources on the environment are the subject of this report.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

The status of the double-crested cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding colonies by bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and humans are likely limiting factors on the growth of the western population at present. Because of differences in biology and management, the western population of double-crested cormorants warrants consideration as a separate management unit from the population east of the Continental Divide.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2020

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program—2019 year in review

Acting Chief’s Message Dear Cooperators: Members of the Cooperative Research Units are pleased to provide you with the “2019 Year in Review” report for the Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (CRUs). You will first note that this report looks a little different than those published in the past few years, as we opted for a shorter, more concise format this year. Inside you will find brief descriptions of just a few highlighted activities of unit scientists, students, and cooperators in support of our joint mission. Because of the shorter format, we are not able to include activities from every unit or State, but rest assured that we continue to value the great work that all of you do across the country and around the world. In fiscal year 2019, the CRU program was very productive despite challenging conditions, including budget uncertainty, a month-long furlough, and hiring delays. John Organ, Chief of the CRU program, retired in January 2019. The process to replace John was delayed several times, but as I write this, the position has been announced on the Federal Government recruitment site. I am hopeful that by the time you read this, we will have a new permanent chief. Congress provided an increase of $1 million in our allocation for the express purpose of filling some of the vacancies in our scientific workforce. Since receiving that increase, the management team has been working to fill vacancies. The program is fortunate to have excellent research scientists, dedicated leadership, and an outstanding administrative staff. However, our accomplishments depend on the tremendous support from all of you. We look forward to a productive 2020. John D. Thompson

Circular↗
USGS2019

#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media and social media during the Bombay Beach 2016 Swarm

Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake could be triggered. Within 1–2 days, different forecast models were used to evaluate the likelihood of a larger event with two agencies (the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services) releasing probabilities and forecasts for larger earthquakes. Our research explores communication and news media efforts, as well as how people on a microblogging social media site (Twitter) responded to these forecasts. Our findings suggest that news media used a combination of information sources, basing their articles on what they learned from social media, as well as using information provided by government agencies. As the swarm slowed down, there is evidence of the continued interplay between news media and social media, with the USGS issuing revised probability reports and scientists from the USGS and other institutions participating in media interviews. In reporting on the swarm, news media often used language more generally than the scientists; terms such as probability, likelihood, chance, and possibility were used interchangeably. Knowledge of how news media used scientific information from the 2016 Bombay Beach forecasts can assist local, state, and federal agencies in developing effective communication strategies to respond to future earthquakes.

California↗