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Executive summary

Fossil fuels from the Appalachian basin region have been major contributors to the Nation’s energy needs over much of the last three centuries. Early records indicate that Appalachian coal was first mined in the middle 1700s (Virginia and Pennsylvania) and was used sparingly to fuel colonial settlements and, later, a fledgling industrial-based economy along the eastern seaboard of the United States (de Witt and Milici, 1989). In 2011, central Appalachian basin coal production accounted for approximately 77 percent of all U.S. metallurgical (or coking) coal and 29 percent of total U.S. production (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). Following initial discoveries and commercial use in western New York (1821) and Ohio and West Virginia (mid-1830s), the Appalachian petroleum (oil and gas) industry began in earnest in 1859 with the discovery of oil at the Drake well in northwestern Pennsylvania. Between 1860 and 1989, the Appalachian basin produced more than 2.5 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and more than 30 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) from more than 500,000 wells (de Witt and Milici, 1989). Although both oil and gas continue to be produced in the Appalachian basin, most new wells in the region are drilled in shale reservoirs to produce natural gas. Appalachian coal and petroleum resources are still available in sufficient quantities to contribute significantly to the Nation’s energy needs. For example, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2010) estimated that there are 6,484 million short tons of recoverable coal reserves in the Appalachian basin. Similarly, about 14.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) (1.2 BBO+81 TCFG [or 13.5 BBOE]) of recoverable Appalachian basin oil and gas remain available of an estimated ultimate endowment of approximately 25.5 billion BBOE (cumulative production + reserves + estimated recoverable undiscovered resources) (this volume, chap. C.1). U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1708 is a modern, indepth collection of reports, cross sections, and maps that describe the geology of the Appalachian basin and its fossil fuel resources. Several of the chapters have been published in outside journals or as other USGS publications. Although this volume is not a comprehensive regional treatment of all notable geologic and fossil fuel localities in the Appalachian basin, the selected study areas and topics presented in the chapters cover large segments of the basin and a wide range of stratigraphic intervals. As the title implies, this volume addresses topics that refer to the locations of coal and petroleum accumulations, the stratigraphic and structural framework, and the geochemical characteristics of the coal beds and petroleum in the basin, as well as the results and documentation of recent USGS assessments of coal, oil, and gas resources in the basin. Many of the maps and accompanying data supporting the reports in this volume are available as downloadable geographic information system (GIS) data files (such as selected coal beds, selected oil and gas fields, locations of oil and gas wells, coal production, coal chemistry, total petroleum system (TPS) boundaries, and bedrock geology). Log ASCII Standard (LAS) files for geophysical (gamma ray) wireline well logs also are included. This publication supplements and updates older USGS regional studies of Appalachian basin coal and petroleum resources such as those by Arndt and others (1968) and the numerous contributors to USGS Miscellaneous Map Series I−917 (for example, Harris and others, 1978), respectively. USGS Professional Paper 1708 is intended primarily for geoscientists in academia, industry, and government who are interested in Appalachian basin geology and its coal and petroleum resources. Other users, however, may find the wide variety of topics, papers, and digital images of value for landuse and policy planning issues. Among the anticipated benefits of the report are improvements in (1) resource assessment estimates and methodology, (2) exploration strategies, (3) basin models, and (4) energy use policies.

Appalachian Basin↗

The central and northern Appalachian Basin-a frontier region for coalbed methane development

The Appalachian basin is the world's second largest coalbed-methane (CBM) producing basin. It has nearly 4000 wells with 1996 annual production at 147.8 billion cubic feet (Bcf). Cumulative CBM production is close to 0.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The Black Warrior Basin of Alabama in the southern Appalachian basin (including a very minor amount from the Cahaba coal field) accounts for about 75% of this annual production and about 75% of the wells, and the remainder comes from the central and northern Appalachian basin. The Southwest Virginia coal field accounts for about 95% of the production from the central and northern parts of the Appalachian basin. Production data and trends imply that several of the Appalachian basin states, except for Alabama and Virginia, are in their infancy with respect to CBM development. Total in-place CBM resources in the central and northern Appalachian basin have been variously estimated at 66 to 76 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), of which an estimated 14.55 Tcf (~ 20%) is technically recoverable according to a 1995 U.S. Geological Survey assessment. For comparison in the Black Warrior basin of the 20 Tcf in-place CBM resources, 2.30 Tcf (~ 12%) is technically recoverable. Because close to 0.9 Tcf of CBM has already been produced from the Black Warrior basin and the proved reserves are about 0.8 Tcf for 1996 [Energy Information Administration (EIA), 1997]. U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, 1996 Annual Report. U.S. Department of Energy DOE/EIA-0216(96), 145 pp.], these data imply that the central and northern Appalachian basin could become increasingly important in the Appalachian basin CBM picture as CBM resources are depleted in the southern Appalachian basin (Black Warrior Basin and Cahaba Coal Field). CBM development in the Appalachian states could decrease the eastern U.S.A.'s dependence on coal for electricity. CBM is expected to provide over the next few decades a virtually untapped source of unconventional fossil fuel in the Appalachian states, where the CBM resources are large and the demand for cleaner fossil-fuel energy is high.The central and northern Appalachian basin could become increasingly important in the Appalachian basin coalbed methane (CBM) picture as CBM resources are depleted in the southern Appalachian basin. Total in-place CBM resources in the central and the northern Appalachian basin have been estimated at 66 to 76 Tcf, of which 14.55 Tcf is technically recoverable.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Hydrogeologic framework of the Red River alluvial aquifer and Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer in northwestern Louisiana

Groundwater in northwestern Louisiana is a valuable resource needed for expanding public-supply needs as well as possible energy development needs arising from Haynesville Formation natural-gas production. The Red River alluvial and the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifers are two of the most important and heavily pumped aquifers in northwestern Louisiana; however, little documentation of the regional hydrogeologic framework is available. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development have consolidated information from, and built upon, previous studies of the Red River alluvial and the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifers to characterize and document the regional hydrogeologic framework of northwestern Louisiana. The study area has been tectonically modified and includes abundant structural features such as salt domes and areally extensive faulting in addition to minor folding related to these features, all of which impact the sedimentological and hydraulic characteristics of the freshwater-bearing strata. The hydrogeologic framework of northwestern Louisiana comprises a sequence of structurally modifi ed, complexly interbedded, varyingly interconnected, clayey, sandy, and gravelly alluvial sediments. The important freshwater hydrogeologic units include the Quaternary Red River alluvial and upland terrace aquifers, and the underlying Tertiary Sparta, Cane River, and Carrizo-Wilcox aquifers. The Midway confining unit underlies the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer throughout the study area. No freshwater is present in or below the Midway Group. Tertiary-age formations exposed at land surface in the study area have been incised by the Red River and are hydraulically connected to the Quaternary Red River alluvium in the Red River valley. In 2010, 7.73 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn from the Red River alluvial aquifer in the study area, representing an increase of 2.00 Mgal/d, or about 35 percent, over 2005 withdrawal rates. The Tertiary Carrizo Sand and Wilcox Group crop out across much of the study area. The two units are hydraulically connected and function as a single hydrologic unit referred to as the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. In 2010, 19.33 Mgal/d of water were withdrawn from the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer in the study area, representing an increase of nearly 1.8 Mgal/d, or about 10 percent, over 2005 withdrawal rates. Any expansion in energy development, as well as water needs of an increasing population, could result in an increased demand on groundwater in northwestern Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

Insectivorous bat foraging tracks the availability of aquatic flies (Diptera)

Rivers and their adjacent riparian zones are model ecosystems for observing cross-ecosystem energy transfers. Aquatic insects emerging from streams, for example, are resource subsidies that support riparian consumers such as birds, spiders, lizards, and bats. We collaborated with recreational river runners in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, to record acoustic bat activity and sample riparian insects using light traps at dusk from April through October 2017–2020. River runners collected these data on 1,428 events over 611 sampling nights at 410 sites throughout a 470-km segment of the Colorado River. We documented 71 insect taxa in light traps and recorded 19 bat species with acoustic detectors. We hypothesized that bat activity along this highly regulated river segment would be influenced primarily by variation in prey availability, as compared to other habitat descriptors. We predicted that bat activity would be positively related to aquatic insect catch rates and unrelated to terrestrial insect abundance. We fit Bayesian regression models to test these hypotheses and to quantify the relationship between bat activity and a suite of environmental variables: time of year, time of day, distance from perennial tributaries, distance from rapids, channel width, geomorphic reach, tall vegetation cover, air temperature, and lunar phase. Bat activity was positively related to the abundance of aquatic flies (Diptera), which outcompeted all other prey categories and structural habitat descriptors in our models. Within our dusk sampling period, activity of small myotis (California myotis [ Myotis californicus ] and Yuma myotis [ M. yumanensis ]) was high late in the evening and canyon bats ( Parastrellus hesperus ), conversely, were more active early in the evening. Activity of canyon bats varied seasonally, with peak activity in August. Our results support the hypothesis that aquatic prey, specifically aquatic flies, are key predictors of bat activity along a large, regulated river corridor and demonstrate the power of community science as a tool for ecosystem monitoring.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Elodea mediates juvenile salmon growth by altering physical structure in freshwater habitats

Invasive species introductions in high latitudes are accelerating and elevating the need to address questions of their effects on Subarctic and Arctic ecosystems. As a driver of ecosystem function, submerged aquatic vegetation is one of the most deleterious biological invasions to aquatic food webs. The aquatic plant Elodea spp. has potential to be a widespread invader to Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems and is already established in 19 waterbodies in Alaska, USA. Elodea spp. has been found to alter ecosystem processes through multiple pathways; yet little is known about the impact of Elodea spp. on fish life history. A primary concern is the effect of Elodea spp. on juvenile Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), because this invading plant can form dense stands in littoral zones, potentially impacting important freshwater rearing habitats used by juvenile fish for foraging and refuge from predators. We used a field experiment to test the effect of Elodea spp. on juvenile coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) growth in an infested lake near Cordova, Alaska, USA. We found that Elodea spp. stands result in reduced growth and a lower trophic position for juvenile coho salmon over the summer compared to habitats dominated by a native assemblage of aquatic plants. While infested sites were not associated with significant changes in water condition or primary productivity compared to sites dominated by native vegetation, zooplankton densities were reduced, and Elodea spp. height and vegetation richness increased macroinvertebrate densities. Combined, these results indicate that Elodea spp. may alter the flow of energy to juvenile salmon by restructuring space and affecting prey resources for rearing fish. Furthermore, these results suggest that widespread establishment of Elodea spp. may alter the quality of habitat for juvenile salmon and, by affecting juvenile fish growth, could lead to population-level impacts on salmon returns.

Biological Invasions↗

Modern aerial gamma-ray spectrometry and regional potassium map of the conterminous United States

Aerial gamma-ray surveys of the natural environment measure the flux of gamma rays produced by the radioactive decay of 40 K, 214 Bi, and 208 Tl in the upper 10–20 cm of surface materials. 40 K is a radioactive potassium isotope which can be used to estimate the total amount of potassium in the soils and rocks. 214 Bi is a decay product of the 238 U radioactive decay series and is used to estimate the uranium concentrations, and 208 Tl, a decay product of the 232 Th radioactive decay series, is used to estimate thorium concentrations. Aerial gamma-ray data covering the 48 contiguous states of the United States have been compiled to produce maps showing the distributions of equivalent uranium, equivalent thorium, and potassium. This compilation involved processing the aerial survey data from about 470 1° × 2° quadrangle maps. The aerial gamma-ray data were obtained as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy during the period 1975-1983. References for the Open-File Reports that describe the surveys and data collection can be found in Bendix Field Engineering Corp. (1983). The aerial surveys were flown by contractors using fixed-wing and helicopter systems with 33-50 L (liters) of thallium-activated sodium iodide (NaI (TI)) crystals. The nominal survey altitude used is 122 m. The survey lines were generally east-west with line spacings of 1.6-10 km. Tie lines were flown perpendicular to the flight lines at intervals of 16- 30 km. The data were corrected for background from aircraft contamination and cosmic rays, altitude variations, airborne 214Bi, and Compton scattering. The gamma-ray systems were calibrated using the calibrations pads at Grand Junction, Colorado (Ward, 1978 ) and the dynamic test strip at Lake Mead, Arizona (Geodata International, Inc., 1977).

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

Effect of seasonal differences in dietary meat intake on changes in body mass and composition in wild and captive brown bears

The influence of seasonal dietary meat intake on changes in body mass and composition in wild and captive brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) was investigated because the importance and availability of meat to brown bear populations is currently an important management consideration in several North American ecosystems. Adult female brown bears on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, utilized meat heavily in both spring and fall. Meat accounted for 76.2 ± 26.0% (mean ± 1 SD; primarily moose carrion and calves) of assimilated carbon and nitrogen in the spring and 80.4 ± 22.2% (primarily salmon) in the fall. Mass increases in the spring (71.8 ± 28.2%) were mostly lean body mass, but increases in the fall (81.0 ± 19.5%) were primarily fat. Daily intake by captive brown bears fed meat ad libitum during 12-day trials was positively related to body mass. Mass change was positively related to intake in both seasons, but the composition of the gain varied by season, with spring gains primarily lean body mass (64.2 ± 9.4%), while fall gains were 78.8 ± 19.6% lipid. Absolute rates of gain by wild bears occasionally equaled, but were usually much less than, those of captive bears. This was likely due to a combination of factors, which included the time required to locate and handle meat resources, the limited availability of or access to meat resources, and (or) the duration of meat resource availability. Estimated intake by bears not feeding selectively on high-energy components of moose and salmon were 8.5 ± 1.5 kg/day and 541 ± 156 kg/year and 10.8 ± 4.6 kg/day and 1003 ± 489 kg/year, respectively. Intake would drop by as much as 58% for bears feeding exclusively on salmon roe. Management strategies for areas with brown bears that consume significant amounts of meat should address the perpetuation and availability of these meat resources.

Alaska↗

Dynamics of intertidal foraging by coastal brown bears in Southwestern Alaska

Shoreline areas provide early season foraging opportunities for coastal bears in Alaska. We investigated use by brown bears (Ursus arctos) of soft-shelled (Mya arenaria) and Pacific razor (Siliqua patula) clams at Katmai National Park, Alaska, USA, to identify the potential importance of these clams to bears. We used direct observations of bear foraging behavior in the summers of 1998, 1999, and 2001 to model the nutritional importance of clamming behavior. We also used previously described models to estimate the relative importance of clamming and vegetative foraging in meeting the maintenance requirements of bears. At the harvest rate that we observed (0.69 ?? 0.46 clams/min), bears achieved higher rates of digestible energy intake than those foraging on vegetation. Although clams are available for only a few hours per day, bears could significantly reduce their total daily foraging time by utilizing clams. Smaller single bears and females with dependent young were the most represented groups of bears using intertidal areas. Large male bears, faced with higher energy requirements, likely are unable to efficiently exploit these intertidal resources. Depending on the relationship between clam size and tissue mass, the relative quality of clams differed by species. Bears foraging on Pacific razor clams required the fewest hours to meet maintenance, followed by bears consuming soft-shelled clams. Our findings highlight the significance of intertidal habitats for coastal bears, especially females.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Hydrology and climate of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter C in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico lies directly in the path of the easterly trade winds, which deliver steady rainfall to the mountains and steer tropical wave systems toward the island. Hurricanes and tropical storms derived from these tropical waves differ in frequency and intensity, contributing to substantial interannual variation in precipitation and stream discharge. Puerto Rico's steep topography and small water-storage capacity leave the island's water supply and developed flood plains vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts. This vulnerability may increase in the future owing to ongoing change, both local (such as land-cover shifts, water-supply projects, and construction of roads and other infrastructure) and regional (climate variability and change). Climate change, which could lead to more intense and prolonged droughts as well as an increase in the magnitude and frequency of destructive storms in the Caribbean, may alter temperature and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. Accurate assessment of hydrologic regimes and water budgets is therefore crucial for effective management of water resources. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program, hydrologic and geomorphologic processes and stream chemistry of four small watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico, which differ in geology and land cover, have been studied since 1991. Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and stream discharge, along with water budgets, were determined for the watersheds for the period 1991 to 2005. The locations of the watersheds relative to the Luquillo Mountains and the range's associated rain shadow dominate hydrological processes, dwarfing influences of land cover. The influence of geology is reflected in recession characteristics of the rivers (recession is faster in soils overlying volcaniclastic bedrock) and in hillslope geomorphic processes (sediment is delivered at higher rates from soils overlying granitic bedrock).

Professional Paper↗

High female desert tortoise mortality in the western Sonoran Desert during California’s epic 2012–2016 drought

We conducted population surveys for desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii at 2 nearby sites in the western Sonoran Desert of California, USA, from 2015-2018, during the driest ongoing 22 yr period (2000-2021) in the southwestern USA in over 1200 yr. We hypothesized that drought-induced mortality would be female-biased due to water and energy losses attributable to egg production during protracted periods of resource limitation. At the higher-elevation, cooler, wetter Cottonwood site from 2015-2016, the sex ratio of live adult tortoises was biased toward males and the sex ratio of tortoises estimated to have died during the intensified drought conditions from 2012-2016 was essentially even. At the lower-elevation, warmer, drier Orocopia site from 2017-2018, the sex ratio of live adult tortoises was biased toward males and the sex ratio of tortoises with estimated times of death from 2012-2016 was biased toward females. High female mortality at the Orocopia site may have resulted from the interaction of drought effects and the bet-hedging reproductive strategy of tortoises wherein they continue to produce clutches of eggs in drought years. Annual reproductive output results in an estimated loss of up to 13.5% of female tortoise body mass including over 0.20 l of water. Combined with dehydration during severe droughts, these losses may compromise their ability to survive droughts lasting more than 2 yr. The low tortoise density and high mortality of females observed may reflect reduced survival of tortoises near the southern edge of their range due to climate change, including protracted and intensified droughts.

Western Sonoran Desert↗

Seasonal activity and diets of bats at uranium mines and adjacent areas near the Grand Canyon

Little information exists on the habitat use and feeding ecology of insectivorous bats in arid ecosystems, especially at and near uranium mines in northern Arizona, within the Grand Canyon watershed. In 2015–2016, we conducted mist-netting, nightly acoustic monitoring (>1 year), and diet analyses of bats, as well as insect sampling, at 2 uranium mines (Pinenut and Arizona 1) with water containment ponds. Because of physical barriers and limited general access to areas within the mine yard, mist-netting was limited to outside of the perimeter fence and away from the containment ponds. Mist-netting also occurred at 2 nearby sites that served as proxies to the mines. Bats captured directly at the mines included one pregnant Antrozous pallidus and 3 adult male Parastrellus hesperus . At the proxy sites, we captured 45 individuals identified as A. pallidus , Corynorhinus townsendii , Eptesicus fuscus , Euderma maculatum , Lasionycteris noctivagans , Myotis californicus , Myotis ciliolabrum , P. hesperus , and Tadarida brasiliensis . The nightly and seasonal presence of bats, as shown through acoustic recordings at each mine, coincided with the seasonal migratory and hibernation behaviors of the bat species. Statistical comparisons of acoustic recordings with precipitation data collected over one year show that seasonal monsoon rains generally had a negative effect on the nightly activity and presence of bats. Diets of P. hesperus from both mines were comprised mostly of coleopterans but also included smaller volumes of Hymenoptera, Hemiptera, Lepidoptera, Diptera, and Neuroptera. The diet of A. pallidus was comprised solely of Coleoptera. Diets of bat species from the proxy sites were characteristic of their known feeding ecology, which ranged from the consumption of soft-bodied insects (e.g., moths) by C. townsendii to the consumption of hard-bodied insects (e.g., beetles) by E. fuscus . Ultimately, the increased knowledge of the natural history of bats through multiple methods of data collection allows for a better understanding of complex arid ecosystems. It also provides resources needed for the management of habitat associated with alternative energy, such as uranium mining.

Arizona↗

USGS addresses needs for lithium calibration and quality control materials for pLIBS analysis

Lithium (Li) is a globally important commodity used for energy storage, national defense, human health, and advanced technologies. Lithium resource development requires identifying deposits with elevated concentrations and optimal mineralogy, typically associated with select clays and pegmatites. Lithium is a light, highly reactive alkali metal with low atomic mass that is difficult to detect and quantify using conventional portable geochemical techniques such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF). However, portable laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (pLIBS) is a powerful analytical technique for lithium exploration due to its ability to analyze solids quickly with minimal preparation. The expanded utility of pLIBS is hampered by the lack of matrix-matched calibration and quality control (QC) materials. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed in-house lithium calibration and QC materials for lithium in clay and pegmatite matrices to address this limitation. We present the workflow and implementation of a custom-built matrix specific calibration on a SciAps Z-300 pLIBS, using proprietary Profile Builder software. The implementation of the custom calibration and quality control standards enables us to collect semiquantitative results directly from the pLIBS while in the field. Ultimately, this calibration has improved confidence in sample selection and collection in the field, providing more efficient site characterization.

Conference Paper↗

Vulnerabilities and opportunities at the nexus of electricity, water and climate

The articles in this special issue examine the critical nexus of electricity, water, and climate, emphasizing connections among resources; the prospect of increasing vulnerabilities of water resources and electricity generation in a changing climate; and the opportunities for research to inform integrated energy and water policy and management measures aimed at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Here, we characterize several major themes emerging from this research and highlight some of the uptake of this work in both scientific and public spheres. Underpinning much of this research is the recognition that water resources are expected to undergo substantial changes based on the global warming that results primarily from fossil energy-based carbon emissions. At the same time, the production of electricity from fossil fuels, nuclear power, and some renewable technologies (biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power) can be highly water-intensive. Energy choices now and in the near future will have a major impact not just on the global climate, but also on water supplies and the resilience of energy systems that currently depend heavily on them.

Environmental Research Letters↗

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic carbon dioxide storage

In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The first year of that activity was specified for development of a methodology to estimate storage potential that could be applied uniformly to geologic formations across the United States. After its release, the methodology was to receive public comment and external expert review. An initial methodology was developed and published in March 2009 (Burruss and others, 2009), and public comments were received. The report was then sent to a panel of experts for external review. The external review report was received by the USGS in December 2009. This report is in response to those external comments and reviews and describes how the previous assessment methodology (Burruss and others, 2009) was revised. The resource that is assessed is the technically accessible storage resource, which is defined as the mass of CO 2 that can be stored in the pore volume of a storage formation. The methodology that is presented in this report is intended to be used for assessments at scales ranging from regional to subbasinal in which storage assessment units are defined on the basis of common geologic and hydrologic characteristics. The methodology does not apply to site-specific evaluation of storage resources or capacity.

Open-File Report↗

Physical factors determining the fraction of stored energy recoverable from hydrothermal convection systems and conduction-dominated areas

This report contains background analyses for the estimates of Nathenson and Muffler (1975) of geothermal resources in hydrothermal convection systems and conduction-dominated areas. The first section discusses heat and fluid recharge potential of geothermal reservoirs. The second section analyzes the physical factors that determine the fraction of stored energy obtainable at the surface from a geothermal reservoir. Conversion of heat to electricity and the use of geothermal energy for direct-heating applications are discussed in the last two sections. Nathenson, Manuel, and Muffler, L.J.P., 1975, Geothermal resources in hydrothermal convection systems and conduction dominated areas, in White, D.E., and Williams, D.L., eds., Assessment of the Geothermal Resources of the United States--1975: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 726, p. 104-121, available at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/cir/cir726

Open-File Report↗

Neonatal antipredator tactics shape female movement patterns in large herbivores

Caring for newborn offspring hampers resource acquisition of mammalian females, curbing their ability to meet the high energy expenditure of early lactation. Newborns are particularly vulnerable, and large herbivores have evolved a continuum of neonatal anti-predator tactics, ranging from immobile hider to highly mobile follower offspring. How these tactics constrain female movements around parturition is unknown, particularly within the current context of increasing habitat fragmentation and earlier plant phenology caused by global warming. Using a analysis across 54 populations of 23 species of large herbivores, we show that mothers adjust their movements to variation in resource productivity and heterogeneity according to their offspring’s neonatal tactic. Mothers with hider offspring are unable to exploit environments where the variability of resources occurs at a broad scale, which might alter resource allocation compared to mothers with follower offspring. Our findings reveal that the overlooked neonatal tactic plays a key role for predicting how species are coping with environmental variation.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

Development of a probabilistic assessment methodology for evaluation of carbon dioxide storage

This report describes a probabilistic assessment methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for evaluation of the resource potential for storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the subsurface of the United States as authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140, 2007). The methodology is based on USGS assessment methodologies for oil and gas resources created and refined over the last 30 years. The resource that is evaluated is the volume of pore space in the subsurface in the depth range of 3,000 to 13,000 feet that can be described within a geologically defined storage assessment unit consisting of a storage formation and an enclosing seal formation. Storage assessment units are divided into physical traps (PTs), which in most cases are oil and gas reservoirs, and the surrounding saline formation (SF), which encompasses the remainder of the storage formation. The storage resource is determined separately for these two types of storage. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to calculate a distribution of the potential storage size for individual PTs and the SF. To estimate the aggregate storage resource of all PTs, a second Monte Carlo simulation step is used to sample the size and number of PTs. The probability of successful storage for individual PTs or the entire SF, defined in this methodology by the likelihood that the amount of CO 2 stored will be greater than a prescribed minimum, is based on an estimate of the probability of containment using present-day geologic knowledge. The report concludes with a brief discussion of needed research data that could be used to refine assessment methodologies for CO 2 sequestration.

Open-File Report↗

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment ( i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features ( i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms ( e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods ( e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

Geothermics↗