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Geohydrology of the valley-fill aquifer in the Cohocton area, upper Cohocton River, Steuben County, New York

The Cohocton valley-fill aquifer, composed of outwash, kame, and alluvial sand and gravel, is highly productive and is in hydraulic contact with the Cohocton River. Potential well yields range from 50 to more than 1,000 gallons per minute. Most of the aquifer is under shallow water-table conditions and vulnerable to surface contamination. Thickness ranges from 20 to 100 feet. The aquifer lies in an area containing only small communities and therefore is not heavily pumped. Geohydrologic data are compiled on six maps at 1:24,000 scale and in geologic sections. The maps depict surficial geology, soil-infiltration capacity, potentiometric surface, aquifer thickness, well yields, and land use. The maps are designed to help planners evaluate developments that may affect the aquifer, particularly potential contamination sources. This set is one in a series of four that depict selected aquifers in western New York. It supplements a series that is being done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with State agencies. The maps are based largely on published reports, file data in several State agencies, and field notes. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Geohydrology of the valley-fill aquifer in the Bath area, Lower Cohocton River, Steuben County, New York

The Bath valley-fill aquifer, southern New York, composed of outwash, ice-contact, and ice-disintegration sand and gravel, is highly productive and is in many areas in hydraulic contact with the Cohocton River. Potential well yields range 50 to more than 1,000 gallons per minute. Most of the aquifer is under shallow water-table conditions and vulnerable to surface contamination. Thickness ranges from 20 to 40 feet. Buried aquifers are present locally. The aquifer system underlies an area containing only a few small communities and therefore is not heavily pumped. Geohydrologic data are compiled on six maps at 1:24,000 scale and on a sheet of geologic sections. The maps depict surficial geology, soil-infiltration capacity, potentiometric surface, aquifer thickness, well yields, and land use. This map report set is one in a series of four that depict selected aquifers in Wester New York. It supplements a series that is being done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with State agencies. The maps are based largely on published reports, data filled in several State agencies, and some additional field data collection. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Precision and bias of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1983; and January 1980 through September 1984

Blind-audit samples with known analyte concentrations have been prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey and distributed to the National Atmospheric Deposition Program 's Central Analytical Laboratory. The difference between the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network reported analyte concentrations and known analyte concentrations have been calculated, and the bias has been determined. Calcium, magnesium , sodium, and chloride were biased at the 99-percent confidence limit; potassium and sulfate were unbiased at the 99-percent confidence limit, for 1983 results. Relative-percent differences between the measured and known analyte concentration for calcium , magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate have been calculated for 1983. The median relative percent difference for calcium was 17.0; magnesium was 6.4; sodium was 10.8; potassium was 6.4; chloride was 17.2; and sulfate was -5.3. These relative percent differences should be used to correct the 1983 data before user-analysis of the data. Variances have been calculated for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate determinations. These variances should be applicable to natural-sample analyte concentrations reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network for calendar year 1983. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Regional bankfull-channel dimensions of non-urban wadeable streams in Indiana

During floods, damage to properties and community infrastructure may result from inundation and the processes of erosion. The damages imparted by erosion are collectively termed the fluvial erosion hazard (FEH), and the Indiana Silver Jackets Multi-agency Hazard Mitigation Taskforce is supporting a program to build tools that will assist Indiana property owners and communities with FEH-mitigation efforts. As part of that program, regional channel-dimension relations are identified for non-urban wadeable streams in Indiana. With a site-selection process that targeted the three largest physiographic regions of the state, field work was completed to measure channel-dimension and channel-geometry characteristics across Indiana. In total, 82 sites were identified for data collection; 25 in the Northern Moraine and Lake region, 31 in the Central Till Plain region, and 26 in the Southern Hills and Lowlands region. Following well established methods, for each data-collection site, effort was applied to identify bankfull stage, determine bankfull-channel dimensions, and document channel-geometry characteristics that allowed for determinations of channel classification. In this report, regional bankfull-channel dimension results are presented as a combination of plots and regression equations that identify the relations between drainage area and the bankfull-channel dimensions of width, mean depth, and cross-sectional area. This investigation found that the channel-dimension data support independent relations for each of the three physiographic regions noted above. Furthermore, these relations show that, for any given drainage area, northern Indiana channels have the smallest predicted dimensions, southern Indiana channels have the largest predicted dimensions, and central Indiana channels are intermediate in their predicted dimensions. When considering the suite of variables that influence bankfull-channel dimensions, it appears that contrasting runoff characteristics between the three physiographic regions may explain much of the inequality observed in the measured channel dimensions. While this investigation targeted non-urban wadeable streams in Indiana, site conditions prevented data collection in some areas. Therefore, application of the results of this study always should include knowledge gained from local observations.

Indiana↗

Estimated water withdrawals and return flows in Vermont in 2005 and 2020

In 2005, about 12 percent of total water withdrawals (440 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)) in Vermont were from groundwater sources (51 Mgal/d), and about 88 percent were from surface-water sources (389 Mgal/d). Of total water withdrawals, about 78 percent were used for cooling at a power plant, 9 percent were withdrawn by public suppliers, about 5 percent were withdrawn for domestic use, about 3 percent were withdrawn for use at fish hatcheries, and the remaining 5 percent were divided among commercial/industrial, irrigation, livestock, and snowmaking uses. About 49 percent of the population of Vermont was supplied with drinking water by a public supplier, and 51 percent was self supplied. Some of the Minor Civil Divisions (MCDs) that had large self-supplied populations were located near the major cities of St. Albans, Burlington, Montpelier, Barre, and Rutland, where the cities themselves were served largely by public supply, but the surrounding areas were not. Most MCDs where withdrawals by community water systems totaled more than 1 Mgal/d used predominantly surface water, and those where withdrawals by community water systems totaled 1 Mgal/d or less used predominantly groundwater. Withdrawals of groundwater greater than 1 Mgal/d were made in Middlebury, Bethel, Hartford, Springfield, and Bennington, and withdrawals of surface water greater than 2 Mgal/d were made in Grand Isle, Burlington, South Burlington, Mendon, Brattleboro, and Vernon. Increases in groundwater withdrawals greater than 0.1 Mgal/d are projected for 2020 for Fairfax, Hardwick, Middlebury, Sharon, Proctor, Springfield, and Manchester. The largest projected increases in surface-water withdrawals from 2005 to 2020 are located along the center axis of the Green Mountains in the ski-area towns of Stowe, Warren, Mendon, Killington, and Wilmington. In 2005, withdrawals were at least 1 Mgal/d greater than return flows in South Burlington, Waterford, Orange, Mendon, Woodford, and Vernon. Many of these MCDs had small populations themselves but provided water to community water systems in neighboring towns or cities. Wilmington probably will be added to this list by 2020 because of proposed new withdrawals for snowmaking in Dover. About 15 percent of MCDs had greater return flows than withdrawals; possible reasons are water importation, larger service areas for municipal sewer than for municipal water resulting in underestimation of withdrawals, leakage into sewer pipes, faulty assumptions in assigning coefficients, or other limitations of the study methods. To store and facilitate retrieval of water-use estimates and data for 2005 and projections for 2020, a water-use database for Vermont was designed and populated. Data include withdrawals and return flows from and to groundwater and surface water for all individual facilities and entities that are in Vermont drinking water, discharge permit, or other State water-use databases, along with estimates for many other facilities. Also included are estimates for aggregated domestic and livestock withdrawals and return flows by census block. Retrievals from the database and summaries presented in this report can be used to help identify areas where projected growth in Vermont from 2005 to 2020 might affect groundwater availability.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-quality assessment of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system in the northern Midwest, United States

This report provides a regional assessment of groundwater quality of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, based primarily on raw water samples collected by the NAWQA Program during 1995 through 2007. The NAWQA Program has published findings in local study-unit reports encompassing parts of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system. Data collected from the aquifer system were used in national synthesis reports on selected topics such as specific water-quality constituent classes, well type, or aquifer material; however, a synthesis of groundwater quality at the principal aquifer scale has not been completed and is therefore the major purpose of this report. Water samples collected by the NAWQA Program were analyzed for various classes of characteristics including physical properties, major ions, trace elements, nutrients and dissolved organic carbon, radionuclides (tritium, radon, and radium), pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Subsequent sections of this report provide discussions on these classes of characteristics. The assessment objectives of this report are to (1) summarize constituent concentrations and compare them to human-health benchmarks and non-health guidelines; (2) determine the geographic distribution of constituent concentrations and relate them to various factors such as confining conditions, well type, land use, and groundwater age; and (3) evaluate near-decadal-scale changes in nitrate concentrations and pesticide detections. The most recent sample collected from each well by the NAWQA Program was used for most analyses. Near-decadal-scale changes in nitrate concentrations and pesticide detections were evaluated for selected well networks by using the most recent sample from each well and comparing it to the results from a sample collected 7 or 11 years earlier. Because some of the NAWQA well networks provide a limited areal coverage of the aquifer system, data for raw water samples from other USGS sources and state agencies were included to expand the data coverage into areas between the NAWQA well networks and into northeastern Missouri. Many of the maps in this report that show concentrations of selected constituents include data from other sources to expand on the geographic area covered by the NAWQA data.

Midwest;Cambrian-ordovician Aquifer System↗

Estimates of the volume of water in five coal aquifers, Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, southeastern Montana

The Tongue River Member of the Tertiary Fort Union Formation is the primary source of groundwater in the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation in southeastern Montana. Coal beds within this formation generally contain the most laterally extensive aquifers in much of the reservation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe, conducted a study to estimate the volume of water in five coal aquifers. This report presents estimates of the volume of water in five coal aquifers in the eastern and southern parts of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation: the Canyon, Wall, Pawnee, Knobloch, and Flowers-Goodale coal beds in the Tongue River Member of the Tertiary Fort Union Formation. Only conservative estimates of the volume of water in these coal aquifers are presented. The volume of water in the Canyon coal was estimated to range from about 10,400 acre-feet (75 percent saturated) to 3,450 acre-feet (25 percent saturated). The volume of water in the Wall coal was estimated to range from about 14,200 acre-feet (100 percent saturated) to 3,560 acre-feet (25 percent saturated). The volume of water in the Pawnee coal was estimated to range from about 9,440 acre-feet (100 percent saturated) to 2,360 acre-feet (25 percent saturated). The volume of water in the Knobloch coal was estimated to range from about 38,700 acre-feet (100 percent saturated) to 9,680 acre-feet (25 percent saturated). The volume of water in the Flowers-Goodale coal was estimated to be about 35,800 acre-feet (100 percent saturated). Sufficient data are needed to accurately characterize coal-bed horizontal and vertical variability, which is highly complex both locally and regionally. Where data points are widely spaced, the reliability of estimates of the volume of coal beds is decreased. Additionally, reliable estimates of the volume of water in coal aquifers depend heavily on data about water levels and data about coal-aquifer characteristics. Because the data needed to define the volume of water were sparse, only conservative estimates of the volume of water in the five coal aquifers are presented in this report. These estimates need to be used with caution and mindfulness of the uncertainty associated with them.

Montana↗

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada↗

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Alabama, 2015

To improve flood-frequency estimates at rural streams in Alabama, annual exceedance probability flows at gaged locations and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability flows at ungaged locations were developed by using current geospatial data, new analytical methods, and annual peak-flow data through September 2015 at 242 streamgages in Alabama and surrounding States. The regional regression equations were derived from statistical analyses of annual peak-flow data and basin characteristics for a subset of 217 streamgages. Four flood regions were identified based on residuals from the regional regression analyses and contain sites with similar basin characteristics. A separate set of equations was derived for estimating flood frequency and magnitude for small rural streams using a subset of 40 small basin streamgages. A large river analysis was also completed for 14 selected large-river streamgages in Alabama. Annual exceedance probability flows presented in this report reflect additional streamflow data collected since the previous study of flood magnitude and frequency in Alabama, which included streamflow through September 2003.

Alabama↗

Definition of boundary and initial conditions in the analysis of saturated ground-water flow systems - An introduction

Accurate definition of boundary and initial conditions is an essential part of conceptualizing and modeling ground-water flow systems. This report describes the properties of the seven most common boundary conditions encountered in ground-water systems and discusses major aspects of their application. It also discusses the significance and specification of initial conditions and evaluates some common errors in applying this concept to ground-water-system models. An appendix is included that discusses what the solution of a differential equation represents and how the solution relates to the boundary conditions defining the specific problem. This report considers only boundary conditions that apply to saturated ground-water systems.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model

This report presents a finite-difference model and its associated modular computer program. The model simulates flow in three dimensions. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based and an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program. The modular structure consists of a Main Program and a series of highly independent subroutines called 'modules.' The modules are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system which is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving linear equations which describe the flow system, such as the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The division of the program into modules permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilita development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program are also designed to permit maximum flexibility. Ground-water flow within the aquifer is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined, unconfined, or a combination of confined and unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and streams, can also be simulated. The finite-difference equations can be solved using either the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and will run without modification on most computers that have a FORTRAN 77 compiler. For each program ,module, this report includes a narrative description, a flow chart, a list of variables, and a module listing.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Vulnerability of ground water to atrazine leaching in Kent County, Michigan

A steady-state model of pesticide leaching through the unsaturated zone was used with readily available hydrologic, lithologic, and pesticide characteristics to estimate the vulnerability of the near-surface aquifer to atrazine contamination from non-point sources in Kent County, Michigan. The modelcomputed fraction of atrazine remaining at the water table, RM , was used as the vulnerability criterion; time of travel to the water table also was computed. Model results indicate that the average fraction of atrazine remaining at the water table was 0.039 percent; the fraction ranged from 0 to 3.6 percent. Time of travel of atrazine from the soil surface to the water table averaged 17.7 years and ranged from 2.2 to 118 years. Three maps were generated to present three views of the same atrazine vulnerability characteristics using different metrics (nonlinear transformations of the computed fractions remaining). The metrics were chosen because of the highly (right) skewed distribution of computed fractions. The first metric, rm = RM λ (where λ was 0.0625), depicts a relatively uniform distribution of vulnerability across the county with localized areas of high and low vulnerability visible. The second metric, rm λ-0.5 , depicts about one-half the county at low vulnerability with discontinuous patterns of high vulnerability evident. In the third metric, rm λ-1.0 ( RM ), more than 95 percent of the county appears to have low vulnerability; small, distinct areas of high vulnerability are present. Aquifer vulnerability estimates in the RM metric were used with a steady-state, uniform atrazine application rate to compute a potential concentration of atrazine in leachate reaching the water table. The average estimated potential atrazine concentration in leachate at the water table was 0.16 μg/L (micrograms per liter) in the model area; estimated potential concentrations ranged from 0 to 26 μg/L. About 2 percent of the model area had estimated potential atrazine concentrations in leachate at the water table that exceeded the USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) maximum contaminant level of 3 μg/L. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess effects of parameter uncertainty and spatial interpolation error on the variability of the estimated fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that parameter uncertainty is associated with a standard error of 0.0875 in the computed fractions (in the rm metric). Results of kriging analysis indicate that errors in spatial interpolation are associated with a standard error of 0.146 (in the rm metric). Thus, uncertainty in fractions remaining is primarily associated with spatial interpolation error, which can be reduced by increasing the density of points where the leaching model is applied. A sensitivity analysis indicated which of 13 hydrologic, lithologic, and pesticide characteristics were influential in determining fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results indicate that fractions remaining are most sensitive to the unit changes in pesticide half life and in organic-carbon content in soils and unweathered rocks, and least sensitive to infiltration rates. The leaching model applied in this report provides an estimate of the vulnerability of the near-surface aquifer in Kent County to contamination by atrazine. The vulnerability estimate is related to water-quality criteria developed by the USEPA to help assess potential risks from atrazine to the near-surface aquifer. However, atrazine accounts for only 28 percent of the herbicide use in the county; additional potential for contamination exists from other pesticides and pesticide metabolites. Therefore, additional work is needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the relative risks associated with specific pesticides. The modeling approach described in this report provides a technique for estimating relative vulnerabilities to specific pesticides and for helping to assess potential risks.

Michigan↗

Guidelines for quality assurance and quality control of fish taxonomic data collected as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Fish community structure is characterized by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program as part of a perennial, multidisciplinary approach to evaluating the physical, chemical, and biological conditions of the Nation's water resources. The objective of quality assurance and quality control of fish taxonomic data that are collected as part of the NAWQA Program is to establish uniform guidelines and protocols for the identification, processing, and archiving of fish specimens to ensure that accurate and reliable data are collected. Study unit biologists, collaborating with regional biologists and fish taxonomic specialists, prepare a pre-sampling study plan that includes a preliminary faunal list and identification of an ichthyological curation center for receiving preserved fish specimens. Problematic taxonomic issues and protected taxa also are identified in the study plan, and collecting permits are obtained in advance of sampling activities. Taxonomic specialists are selected to identify fish specimens in the field and to assist in determining what fish specimens should be sacrificed, fixed, and preserved for laboratory identification, independent taxonomic verification, and long-term storage in reference or voucher collections. Quantitative and qualitative sampling of fishes follows standard methods previously established for the NAWQA Program. Common ichthyological techniques are used to process samples in the field and prepare fish specimens to be returned to the laboratory or sent to an institutional repository. Taxonomic identifications are reported by using a standardized list of scientific names that provides nomenclatural consistency and uniformity across study units.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Developing a state water plan: Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1964

This report is the first in a series of annual reports which will describe ground-water conditions in Utah. It was prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Water and Power Board and was designed to provide the data for interested parties, such as legislators, administrators, and planners to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions in the state. Because this report is the first of the series, it necessarily includes certain background and descriptive information which gives a broad general picture of ground-water conditions. Subsequent reports will discuss only changes that have taken place during the previous year. Many of the data used in the preparation of the report were collected by the Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah State Engineer during past and continuing programs. The well-location map and some statistical information about numbers of wells in the State were prepared by digital computer from the Utah Resources Information System, University of Utah, utilizing records which were compiled largely from the files of the Utah State Engineer. R.E. Marsell, geological consultant to the Utah Water and Power Board, first suggested that this report be prepared.

Utah↗

Hydrogeology of Webb County, Texas

Introduction Webb County, in semiarid South Texas on the U.S.-Mexico border, is a region confronted by increasing stresses on natural resources. Laredo (fig. 1), the largest city in Webb County (population 193,000 in 2000), was one of the 10 fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country during 1990-2000 (Perry and Mackun, 2001). Commercial and industrial activities have expanded throughout the region to support the maquiladora industry (manufacturing plants in Mexico) along the border and other growth as a result of the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Rio Grande currently (2002) is the primary source of public water supply for Laredo and other cities along the border in Webb County (fig. 1). Other cities, such as Bruni and Mirando City in the southeastern part of the county, rely on ground-water supplies to meet municipal demands. Increased water demand associated with development and population growth in the region has increased the need for the City of Laredo and Webb County to evaluate alternative water sources to meet future demand. Possible options include (1) supplementing the surface-water supply with ground water, and (2) applying artificial storage and recovery (ASR) technology to recharge local aquifers. These options raise issues regarding the hydraulic capability of the aquifers to store economically substantial quantities of water, current or potential uses of the resource, and possible effects on the quality of water resulting from mixing ground water with alternative source waters. To address some of these issues, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Laredo, began a study in 1996 to assess the ground-water resources of Webb County. A hydrogeologic study was conducted to review and analyze available information on the hydrogeologic units (aquifers and confining units) in Webb County, to locate available wells in the region with water-level and water-quality information from the aquifers, and to analyze the hydraulic properties of the aquifers. The purpose of this report is to document the findings of the study. The information is organized by hydrogeologic unit and presented on this and six other sheets.

Texas↗

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗

Suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, particle sizes, surrogate measurements, and annual sediment loads for selected sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin, water years 2011 through 2016

Accurate measurements of fluvial sediment are important for assessing stream ecological health, calculating flood levels, computing sediment budgets, and managing and protecting water resources. Sediment-enriched rivers in Minnesota are a concern among Federal, State, and local governments because turbidity and sediment-laden waters are the leading impairments and affect more than 6,000 miles of rivers in Minnesota. The suspended sediment in the lower Minnesota River is deleterious, contributing about 75 to 90 percent of the suspended sediment being deposited into Lake Pepin. The Saint Paul District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District collaborate to maintain a navigation channel on the lower 14.7 miles of the Minnesota River through scheduled dredging operations. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has adopted a sediment-reduction strategy to reduce sediment in the Minnesota River by 90 percent by 2040. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and the Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, collected suspended-sediment, bedload, and particle-size samples at five sites in the lower Minnesota River Basin during water years 2011 through 2014 and surrogate measurements of acoustic backscatter at one of these sites on the lower Minnesota River during water years 2012 through 2016 to quantify sediment loads and improve understanding of sediment-transport relations. Annual sediment loads were computed for calendar years 2011 through 2014. Data collected from water years 2011 through 2014 indicated that two tributaries, Le Sueur River and High Island Creek, had the highest sediment yield and concentrations of suspended sediment. These tributaries also had greater stream gradients than the sites on the Minnesota River. Suspended fines were greater than suspended sand at all sites in the study area. The range of median particle sizes matched the range for stream gradients from greatest to smallest. Bedload ranged from 3 to 20 percent of the total load at the Le Sueur River, Minnesota River at Mankato, and High Island Creek and was less than 1 percent of the total load at the Minnesota River near Jordan and at Fort Snelling State Park. The reach of the Minnesota River between Mankato and Jordan is a major source of sediment, with the sediment yield at Jordan being two and a half times greater than at Mankato. Between Jordan and Fort Snelling, the sediment yield decreases substantially, which indicates that the Minnesota River in this reach is a sink for sediment. Surrogate measurements (acoustic backscatter) collected with suspended-sediment concentration data from water years 2012 through 2016 from the Minnesota River at Fort Snelling State Park indicated strong relations between the acoustic backscatter and suspended-sediment concentrations. These results point to the dynamic nature of sediment aggradation, degradation, and transport in the Minnesota River Basin. The analyses described in this report will improve the understanding of sediment-transport relations and sediment budgets in the Minnesota River Basin.

Minnesota↗