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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

North Dakota↗
USGS2018

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2013

Geologic model for the assessment of undiscovered hydrocarbons in Lower to Upper Cretaceous carbonate rocks of the Fredericksburg and Washita groups, U.S. Gulf Coast Region

As part of the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in Jurassic and Cretaceous strata of the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed carbonate rocks of the Fredericksburg and Washita groups and their equivalent units underlying onshore lands and State waters. One conventional assessment unit extending from south Texas to the Florida panhandle was defined: the Fredericksburg-Buda Carbonate Platform-Reef Gas and Oil assessment unit. Assessed strata range in age from Early Cretaceous Albian to Late Cretaceous Cenomanian. The assessment was based on a geologic model that incorporated the Upper Jurassic–Cretaceous–Tertiary Composite Total Petroleum System of the Gulf of Mexico Basin. The following factors were evaluated to define the assessment unit and estimate undiscovered oil and gas resources: potential source rocks, hydrocarbon migration, reservoir porosity and permeability, traps and seals, structural features, depositional framework, and potential for water washing of hydrocarbons near outcrop areas. Analysis of the production history of discovered reservoirs and well data within the assessment unit was also essential for estimating the numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas reservoirs within the assessment unit. The downdip boundary of the assessment unit was drawn as an arbitrary line 10 miles downdip of the Lower Cretaceous shelf margin, to include potential reef-talus reservoirs, a facies described in the geologic model developed for the assessment. Updip boundaries of the assessment unit were drawn based on the updip extent of assessment unit carbonate reservoir rocks, basin margin fault zones, and (or) the presence of producing wells within the assessed interval. Using the U.S. Geological Survey methodology, mean undiscovered resources of 40 million barrels of oil, 622 billion cubic feet of gas, and 14 million barrels of natural gas liquids were estimated for the assessment unit.

U.S. Gulf Coast↗
USGS2011

Carbonatite and alkaline intrusion-related rare earth element deposits–A deposit model

The rare earth elements are not as rare in nature as their name implies, but economic deposits with these elements are not common and few deposits have been large producers. In the past 25 years, demand for rare earth elements has increased dramatically because of their wide and diverse use in high-technology applications. Yet, presently the global production and supply of rare earth elements come from only a few sources. China produces more than 95 percent of the world's supply of rare earth elements. Because of China's decision to restrict exports of these elements, the price of rare earth elements has increased and industrial countries are concerned about supply shortages. As a result, understanding the distribution and origin of rare earth elements deposits, and identifying and quantifying our nation's rare earth elements resources have become priorities. Carbonatite and alkaline intrusive complexes, as well as their weathering products, are the primary sources of rare earth elements. The general mineral deposit model summarized here is part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Resources Program to update existing models and develop new descriptive mineral deposit models to supplement previously published models for use in mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments. Carbonatite and alkaline intrusion-related REE deposits are discussed together because of their spatial association, common enrichment in incompatible elements, and similarities in genesis. A wide variety of commodities have been exploited from carbonatites and alkaline igneous rocks, such as rare earth elements, niobium, phosphate, titanium, vermiculite, barite, fluorite, copper, calcite, and zirconium. Other enrichments include manganese, strontium, tantalum, thorium, vanadium, and uranium.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Community attachment and stewardship identity influence responsibility to manage wildlife

Managing wildlife in landscapes under private ownership requires partnership between landowners, resource users, and governing agencies. Agencies often call on landowners to voluntarily change their practices to achieve collective goals. Landowner support for management action is partially a function of normative beliefs about managing wildlife. Understanding factors that support development of normative beliefs is important for program design, with implications beyond deer. Drawing on norm activation theory, identity theory, and community attachment, we hypothesized that landowners’ ascription of responsibility to manage deer were a function of their identity as a wildlife steward and attachment to their community. We tested our hypotheses using structural equation modeling with data from a survey of southeast Minnesota landowners. Results revealed ascribed responsibility to be a function of identity. In turn, identity was predicted by affect toward the community. Findings suggest community-based approaches to wildlife management could improve goal achievement.

Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Moose habitat selection and fitness consequences during two critical winter tick life stages in Vermont, United States

The moose ( Alces alces ) is a charismatic species in decline across much of their southern distribution in North America. In the northeastern United States, much of the reduction has been attributed to winter tick ( Dermacentor albipictus ) infestations. Winter ticks are fairly immobile throughout all life stages, and therefore their distribution patterns at any given time are shaped largely by the occurrence of moose across the landscape during the peak of two critical time periods: fall questing (when ticks latch onto moose) and spring drop-off (when engorged female ticks detach from moose). We used recent land cover and lidar data within a dynamic occupancy modeling framework to estimate first-order habitat selection (use vs. non-use) of female moose ( n = 74) during the tick questing and drop-off periods. Patch extinction and colonization rates between the fall questing and spring drop-off periods were strongly influenced by habitat and elevation, but these effects were diminished during the fall questing period when moose were more active across the landscape. From the fall questing period to the spring drop-off period, patches where colonization was high and extinction was low had higher proportions of young (shrub/forage) mixed forest at higher elevations. Further, we evaluated the fitness consequences of habitat selection by adult females during the fall questing period, when females and their calves acquire ticks. We compared Resource Selection Functions (RSF) for five females that successfully reared a calf to age 1 with five females whose calves perished due to ticks. Adult female moose whose offspring perished selected habitats in the fall that spatially coincided with areas of high occupancy probability during the spring tick drop-off period. In contrast, adult female moose whose offspring survived selected areas where the probability of occupancy during the spring drop-off was low; at present, natural selection may favor female adults who do not select the same habitats in fall as in spring. Our model coefficients and mapped results define “hotspots” that are likely encouraging the deleterious effects of the tick-moose cycle. These findings fill knowledge gaps about moose habitat selection that may improve the effectiveness of management aimed at reversing declining population trends.

Vermont↗
USGS2001

Assessment method for epithermal gold deposits in northeast Washington State using weights-of-evidence GIS modeling

The weights-of-evidence analysis, a quantitative mineral resource mapping tool, is used to delineate favorable areas for epithermal gold deposits and to predict future exploration activity of the mineral industry for similar deposits in a four-county area (222 x 277 km), including the Okanogan and Colville National Forests of northeastern Washington. Modeling is applied in six steps: (1) building a spatial digital database, (2) extracting predictive evidence for a particular deposit, based on an exploration model, (3) calculating relative weights for each predictive map, (4) combining the geologic evidence maps to predict the location of undiscovered mineral resources and (5) measuring the intensity of recent exploration activity by use of mining claims on federal lands, and (6) combining mineral resource and exploration activity into an assessment model of future mining activity. The analysis is accomplished on a personal computer using ArcView GIS platform with Spatial Analyst and Weights-of-Evidence software. In accord with the descriptive model for epithermal gold deposits, digital geologic evidential themes assembled include lithologic map units, thrust faults, normal faults, and igneous dikes. Similarly, geochemical evidential themes include placer gold deposits and gold and silver analyses from stream sediment (silt) samples from National Forest lands. Fifty mines, prospects, or occurrences of epithermal gold deposits, the training set, define the appropriate a really-associated terrane. The areal (or spatial) correlation of each evidential theme with the training set yield predictor theme maps for lithology, placer sites and normal faults. The weights-of-evidence analysis disqualified the thrust fault, dike, and gold and silver silt analyses evidential themes because they lacked spatial correlation with the training set. The decision to accept or reject evidential themes as predictors is assisted by considering probabilistic data consisting of weights and contrast values calculated for themes according to areal correlation with the training sites. Predictor themes having acceptable weights and contrast values are combined into a preliminary model to predict the locations of undiscovered epithermal gold deposits. This model facilitates ranking of tracts as non-permissive, permissive or favorable categories based on exclusionary, passive, and active criteria through evaluation of probabilistic data provided by interaction of predictor themes. The method is very similar to the visual inspection method of drawing conclusions from anomalies on a manually overlain system of maps. This method serves as a model for future mineral assessment procedures because of its objective nature. To develop a model to predict future exploration activity, the locations of lode mining claims were summarized for 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1996. Land parcels containing historic claims were identified either as those with mining claims present in 1980 or valid claims present in 1985. Current claim parcels were identified as those containing valid lode claims in either 1990 or 1996. A consistent parcel contains both historic and current claims. The epithermal gold and mining claim activity models were combined into an assessment (or mineral resource-activity) model to assist in land use decisions by providing a prediction of mineral exploration activity on federal land in the next decade. Ranks in the assessment model are: (1) no activity, (2) low activity, (3) low to moderate activity, (4) moderate activity and (5) high activity.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Natural-color and color-infrared image mosaics of the Colorado River corridor in Arizona derived from the May 2009 airborne image collection

The Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically collects airborne image data for the Colorado River corridor within Arizona (fig. 1) to allow scientists to study the impacts of Glen Canyon Dam water release on the corridor’s natural and cultural resources. These data are collected from just above Glen Canyon Dam (in Lake Powell) down to the entrance of Lake Mead, for a total distance of 450 kilometers (km) and within a 500-meter (m) swath centered on the river’s mainstem and its seven main tributaries (fig. 1). The most recent airborne data collection in 2009 acquired image data in four wavelength bands (blue, green, red, and near infrared) at a spatial resolution of 20 centimeters (cm). The image collection used the latest model of the Leica ADS40 airborne digital sensor (the SH52), which uses a single optic for all four bands and collects and stores band radiance in 12-bits. Davis (2012) reported on the performance of the SH52 sensor and on the processing steps required to produce the nearly flawless four-band image mosaic (sectioned into map tiles) for the river corridor. The final image mosaic has a total of only 3 km of surface defects in addition to some areas of cloud shadow because of persistent inclement weather during data collection. The 2009 four-band image mosaic is perhaps the best image dataset that exists for the entire Arizona part of the Colorado River. Some analyses of these image mosaics do not require the full 12-bit dynamic range or all four bands of the calibrated image database, in which atmospheric scattering (or haze) had not been removed from the four bands. To provide scientists and the general public with image products that are more useful for visual interpretation, the 12-bit image data were converted to 8-bit natural-color and color-infrared images, which also removed atmospheric scattering within each wavelength-band image. The conversion required an evaluation of the histograms of each band’s digital-number population within each map tile throughout the corridor and the determination of the digital numbers corresponding to the lower and upper one percent of the picture-element population within each map tile. Visual examination of the image tiles that were given a 1-percent stretch (whereby the lower 1- percent 12-bit digital number is assigned an 8-bit value of zero and the upper 1-percent 12-bit digital number is assigned an 8-bit value of 255) indicated that this stretch sufficiently removed atmospheric scattering, which provided improved image clarity and true natural colors for all surface materials. The lower and upper 1-percent, 12-bit digital numbers for each wavelength-band image in the image tiles exhibit erratic variations along the river corridor; the variations exhibited similar trends in both the lower and upper 1-percent digital numbers for all four wavelength-band images (figs. 2–5). The erratic variations are attributed to (1) daily variations in atmospheric water-vapor content due to monsoonal storms, (2) variations in channel water color due to variable sediment input from tributaries, and (3) variations in the amount of topographic shadows within each image tile, in which reflectance is dominated by atmospheric scattering. To make the surface colors of the stretched, 8-bit images consistent among adjacent image tiles, it was necessary to average both the lower and upper 1-percent digital values for each wavelength-band image over 20 river miles to subdue the erratic variations. The average lower and upper 1-percent digital numbers for each image tile (figs. 2–5) were used to convert the 12-bit image values to 8-bit values and the resulting 8-bit four-band images were stored as natural-color (red, green, and blue wavelength bands) and color-infrared (near-infrared, red, and green wavelength bands) images in embedded geotiff format, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image. All image data are projected in the State Plane (SP) map projection using the central Arizona zone (202) and the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83). The map-tile scheme used to segment the corridor image mosaic followed the standard USGS quarter-quadrangle (QQ) map borders, but the high resolution (20 cm) of the images required further quarter segmentation (QQQ) of the standard QQ tiles, where the image mosaic covered a large fraction of a QQ map tile (segmentation shown in (figure 6), where QQ_1 to QQ_4 shows the number convention used to designate a quarter of a QQ tile). To minimize the size of each image tile, each image or map tile was subset to only include that part of the tile that had image data. In addition, some QQQ image tiles within a QQ tile were combined when adjacent QQQ map tiles were small. Thus, some image tiles consist of combinations of QQQ map tiles, some consist of an entire QQ map tile, and some consist of two adjoining QQ map tiles. The final image tiles number 143, which is a large number of files to list on the Internet for both the natural-color and color-infrared images. Thus, the image tiles were placed in seven file folders based on the one-half-degree geographic boundaries within the study area (fig. 7). The map tiles in each file folder were compressed to minimize folder size for more efficient downloading. The file folders are sequentially referred to as zone 1 through zone 7, proceeding down river (fig. 7). The QQ designations of the image tiles contained within each folder or zone are shown on the index map for each respective zone (figs. 8–14).

Arizona↗
USGS2012

Hydrostratigraphic interpretation of test-hole and surface geophysical data, Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska, 2008 to 2011

The Elkhorn-Loup Model (ELM) was begun in 2006 to understand the effect of various groundwater-management scenarios on surface-water resources. During phase one of the ELM study, a lack of subsurface geological information was identified as a data gap. Test holes drilled to the base of the aquifer in the ELM study area are spaced as much as 25 miles apart, especially in areas of the western Sand Hills. Given the variable character of the hydrostratigraphic units that compose the High Plains aquifer system, substantial variation in aquifer thickness and characteristics can exist between test holes. To improve the hydrogeologic understanding of the ELM study area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, multiple Natural Resources Districts participating in the ELM study, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Conservation and Survey Division, described the subsurface lithology at six test holes drilled in 2010 and concurrently collected borehole geophysical data to identify the base of the High Plains aquifer system. A total of 124 time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) soundings of resistivity were collected at and between selected test-hole locations during 2008-11 as a quick, non-invasive means of identifying the base of the High Plains aquifer system. Test-hole drilling and geophysical logging indicated the base-of-aquifer elevation was less variable in the central ELM area than in previously reported results from the western part of the ELM study area, where deeper paleochannels were eroded into the Brule Formation. In total, more than 435 test holes were examined and compared with the modeled-TDEM soundings. Even where present, individual stratigraphic units could not always be identified in modeled-TDEM sounding results if sufficient resistivity contrast was not evident; however, in general, the base of aquifer [top of the aquifer confining unit (ACU)] is one of the best-resolved results from the TDEM-based models, and estimates of the base-of-aquifer elevation are in good accordance with those from existing test-hole data. Differences between ACU elevations based on modeled-TDEM and test-hole data ranged from 2 to 113 feet (0.6 to 34 meters). The modeled resistivity results reflect the eastward thinning of Miocene-age and older stratigraphic units, and generally allowed confident identification of the accompanying change in the stratigraphic unit forming the ACU. The differences in elevation of the top of the Ogallala, estimated on the basis of the modeled-TDEM resistivity, and the test-hole data ranged from 11 to 251 feet (3.4 to 77 meters), with two-thirds of model results being within 60 feet of the test-hole contact elevation. The modeled-TDEM soundings also provided information regarding the distribution of Plio-Pleistocene gravel deposits, which had an average thickness of 100 feet (30 meters) in the study area; however, in many cases the contact between the Plio-Pleistocene deposits and the overlying Quaternary deposits cannot be reliably distinguished using TDEM soundings alone because of insufficient thickness or resistivity contrast.

Nebraska↗
USGS2005

A new reserve growth model for United States oil and gas fields

Reserve (or field) growth, which is an appreciation of total ultimate reserves through time, is a well-recognized phenomenon, particularly in mature petroleum provinces. The importance of forecasting reserve growth accurately in a mature petroleum province made it necessary to develop improved growth functions, and a critical review of the original Arrington method was undertaken. During a five-year (1992-1996), the original Arrington method gave 1.03% higher than the actual oil reserve growth, whereas the proposed modified method gave a value within 0.3% of the actual growth, and therefore it was accepted for the development for reserve growth models. During a five-year (1992-1996), the USGS 1995 National Assessment gave 39.3% higher oil and 33.6% lower gas than the actual growths, whereas the new model based on Modified Arrington method gave 11.9% higher oil and 29.8% lower gas than the actual growths. The new models forecast predict reserve growths of 4.2 billion barrels of oil (2.7%) and 30.2 trillion cubic feet of gas (5.4%) for the conterminous U.S. for the next five years (1997-2001). ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Influence of inherited structure on flexural extension in foreland basin systems: Evidence from the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA

Extensional faults are key components of foreland basin systems. They form within the upper crust in response to flexure of the lithosphere and accommodate subsidence within the foredeep and forebulge depozones. Such faults are excellent proxies for orogenic system evolution and control the distribution of natural resources and hazards. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of flexural extension has not been documented previously at a regional scale, thereby limiting our understanding of underlying geodynamic controls. Here, we resolve late Paleozoic flexural extension in the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA. We synthesize a large database of previous mapping, existing research, subsurface data, and geophysical data into 3D geologic and 2D kinematic models. Mesh surfaces representing several key horizons from the Carboniferous Period (ca. 335-306 Ma) were constructed. These surfaces were built from oil and gas well tops (n = ∼10,000) and surface geologic map contacts using an advanced kriging method. The mesh surfaces are offset by a complex 3D fault network, allowing detailed analysis of along-strike and down-dip variations in fault displacement. Analysis of the 3D model reveals a regular and repeated fault segmentation pattern wherein E -W striking, left- and foreland-stepping en échelon normal faults are segmented by inherited NE striking basement faults. Maximum vertical separation along the E -W normal faults is generally focused between the inherited NE-trending faults. This suggests that the inherited basement faults delocalized extensional strain during late Paleozoic normal faulting. Maximum vertical separation and fault localization may correlate to areas with high-amplitude positive magnetic anomalies interpreted as Mesoproterozoic granitic rocks. Speculative covariance of magnetic anomalies and fault displacements implies that the relatively strong basement granite concentrated stress, leading to localized faulting within the relatively thin sedimentary cover. Lastly, we show that flexural extension migrated southeast to northwest from the Chesterian-Morrowan (ca. 335-319 Ma) to the Desmoinesian (ca. 306 Ma). The migratory flexural extension may be explained by diachronous loading during Pangean assembly, or by synchronous loading but variable load compensation due to inherent factors.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2001

Characteristics of water-well yields in part of the Blue Ridge Geologic Province in Loudoun County, Virginia

Loudoun County, Virginia, which is located about 50 km to the west of Washington, DC, was the site of intensive suburban development during the 1980s and 1990s. In the western half of the county, the source of water for domestic use has been from wells drilled into the fractured crystalline bedrock of the Blue Ridge Geologic Province. A comprehensive digital database that contains information on initial yield, location, depth, elevation, and other data for 3651 wells drilled in this 825.5-km 2 area was combined with a digital geologic map to form the basis for a study of geologic and temporal controls on water-well yields. Statistical modeling procedures were used to determine that mean yields for the wells were significantly different as a function of structural setting, genetic rock type, and geologic map unit. The Bonferroni procedure then was used to determine which paired comparisons contributed to these significant differences. The data were divided into 15 temporal drilling increments to determine if the time-dependent trends that exist for the Loudoun County data are similar to those discovered in a previous study of water-well yields in the Pinardville 7.5-min quadrangle, New Hampshire. In both regions, trends, which include increasing proportions of very low yield wells and increasing well depths through time, and the counterintuitive result of increasing mean well yields through time, were similar. In addition, a yield-to-depth curve similar tothat discovered in the Pinardville quadrangle was recognized in this study. Thus, the temporal model with a feed-forward-loop mechanism to explain the temporal trends in well characteristics proposed for the New Hampshire study appears to apply to western Loudoun County.

Virginia↗
USGS1997

Predicting coastal flooding and wetland loss

The southeastern coastal region encompasses vast areas of wetland habitat important to wildlife and other economically valuable natural resources. Located on the interface between sea and land, these wetland habitats are affected by both sea-level rise and hurricanes, and possibly by hydroperiod associated with regional climatic shifts. Increased sea level is expected to accompany global warming because of higher sea temperatures and ice melt. To help determine the effects of sea-level rise on these wetlands, USGS scientists created computer models of coastal flooding and wetland loss.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Continuous turbidity data used to compute constituent concentrations in the South Loup River, Nebraska, 2017–18

The South Loup River in central Nebraska has been impaired by bacteria since at least 2004, which has resulted in the river not meeting its intended use as a recreational waterway. As part of a strategy for reducing the bacterial load in the river, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, made continuous estimates of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and nutrient concentrations during seasonal monitoring at the South Loup River at Saint Michael, Nebraska, during 2017–18. Continuous turbidity data were collected from mid-April through October in 2017 and 2018 and were paired with 35 co-occurring discrete water samples that were analyzed for E. coli , nutrients, and suspended solids. Surrogate models relating the discrete concentrations to the continuous turbidity data were developed using ordinary-least-squares regression and were evaluated for model performance and uncertainty. Although the model assumptions were met for E. coli , the imprecision of the E. coli model was considerably higher than the other constituents, probably because of measurement imprecision and greater sensitivity to environmental factors. Once the models were developed, the turbidity data were used to predict continuous constituent concentrations and corresponding prediction intervals, which were made available online as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. It is expected that results from these models will provide stakeholders with an understanding of constituent concentrations during the 2017–18 monitoring period and the results will also provide a good reference point for any future comparisons.

Nebraska↗
USGS2024

Water-quality constituent concentrations and loads computed using real-time water-quality data for the Republican River, Clay Center, Kansas, August 2018 through July 2023

Milford Lake, the largest reservoir by surface area in Kansas, has had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer since reporting began in 2011, except 2018–19. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic under section 303(d) of the 1972 Clean Water Act. In 2014, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment established a total maximum daily load for eutrophication and dissolved oxygen impairments. In 2018, the Natural Resources Conservation Service funded the Regional Conservation Partnership Program for the Milford Lake Watershed to focus on best management practices in the Lower Republican River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, completed this study to assess and quantify water-quality constituent concentrations and loads for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) using previously published models for the Republican River near Clay Center, Kansas (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), about 15 miles upstream from Milford Lake, during August 1, 2018, through July 31, 2023. TN, TP, and SS concentrations and loads were monitored because of their relation to water supply and water-quality issues in Milford Lake, including nutrient and sediment transport, taste-and-odor events, potentially toxic cyano-harmful algal bloom events, and subsequent downstream transport of contaminants. Data from this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements. The study mean annual loads for TN and TP were greater than the reported mean annual total maximum daily load and exceeded the watershed reduction goals as well as Kansas nonpoint source reduction goals defined by the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategy for the Lower Republican watershed. TN and TP annual loads during 2019–20 were greater than the defined mean annual total maximum daily load. During 2022, TN and TP annual loads were less than the Kansas nonpoint source reduction goal and during 2023 were less than the watershed reduction goal. SS loads were less than the mean annual sedimentation rate computed from the total maximum daily load for the entirety of the study period, and the study mean annual load was 72 percent less than the designed annual reservoir sedimentation rate for Milford Lake. Data collected during the study period represented a wide range of streamflow and water-quality conditions at the Clay Center site, ranging from low-flow with less frequent runoff during 2023 to high-flow with frequent runoff during 2018. Nutrient reduction goals were only met in the final 2 years of the study period when annual mean flow conditions were lower than normal, indicating that goals may be unattainable during average or high-flow conditions. In all years except 2019, the annual mean SS load was less than the 20-year sediment load reduction target. Although annual SS loads at the Clay Center site generally decreased over time, corresponding reductions in annual streamflow indicated that these reductions may primarily be related to less frequent runoff from the upstream basin. Continued water-quality monitoring and tracking of best management practices are necessary to understand the success of Regional Conservation Partnership Program efforts to reduce nutrient transport in the Milford Lake Watershed.

Kansas↗
USGS2019

Black bears alter movements in response to anthropogenic features with time of day and season

Background With the growth and expansion of human development, large mammals will increasingly encounter humans, elevating the likelihood of human-wildlife conflicts. Understanding the behavior and movement of large mammals, particularly around human development, is important for crafting effective conservation and management plans for these species. Methods We used GPS collar data from American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) to determine how seasonal food resources and human development affected bear movement patterns and resource use across the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Results We found that though bears moved more and avoided human development during crepuscular and daylight hours than at night, bears preferentially moved through human dominated areas at night. This indicates bears were mitigating the risk of human development by altering their behavior to exploit these areas when human activity is low. This behavioral shift was most prominent in the spring, when natural foods are scarce, and fall, when energetic demands are high. We also observed a high degree of inter-individual variability among our sample of bears. Bears with a higher density of houses in their home ranges (~ 75 houses/km2) displayed less avoidance of human development than more rural bears. Furthermore, bear movement models had different explanatory variables, with preference or avoidance of a variable being dependent on the individual bear. To account for this individuality in our predictive surfaces, we projected the probability of movement for each season and time of day using a spatially weighted surface centered on each bear’s home range. Conclusions We found that black bears in Massachusetts are operating in a landscape of fear and are altering their movement patterns to use developed areas when human activity is low. We also found seasonal and diel differences among individual bears in resource selection during movement. Accounting for these individual, seasonal, and diel differences when assessing movement for large mammals is especially important if predictive surfaces are to be used in identifying areas for conservation and management.

Movement Ecology↗
USGS2016

Urban infrastructure and water management—Science capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey

Managing the urban-water cycle has increasingly become a challenge for water-resources planners and regulators faced with the problem of providing clean drinking water to urban residents. Sanitary and combined sanitary and storm sewer networks convey wastewater to centralized treatment plants. Impervious surfaces, which include roads, parking lots, and buildings, increase stormwater runoff and the efficiency by which runoff is conveyed to nearby stream channels; therefore, impervious surfaces increase the risk of urban flooding and alteration of natural ecosystems. These challenges will increase with the expansion of urban centers and the probable effects of climate change on precipitation patterns. Understanding the urban-water cycle is critical to effectively manage water resources and to protect people, infrastructure, and urban-stream ecosystems. As a leader in water-supply, wastewater, and stormwater assessments, the U.S. Geological Survey has the expertise and resources needed to monitor, model, and interpret data related to the urban-water cycle and thereby enable water-resources managers to make informed decisions.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2006

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Scientific Investigations Report↗