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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Holocene faulting in the Bellingham forearc basin: Upper-plate deformation at the northern end of the Cascadia subduction zone

The northern Cascadia forearc takes up most of the strain transmitted northward via the Oregon Coast block from the northward-migrating Sierra Nevada block. The north-south contractional strain in the forearc manifests in upper-plate faults active during the Holocene, the northern-most components of which are faults within the Bellingham Basin. The Bellingham Basin is the northern of four basins of the actively deforming northern Cascadia forearc. A set of Holocene faults, Drayton Harbor, Birch Bay, and Sandy Point faults, occur within the Bellingham Basin and can be traced from onshore to offshore using a combination of aeromagnetic lineaments, paleoseismic investigations and scarps identified using LiDAR imagery. With the recognition of such Holocene faults, the northernmost margin of the actively deforming Cascadia forearc extends 60 km north of the previously recognized limit of Holocene forearc deformation. Although to date no Holocene faults are recognized at the northern boundary of the Bellingham Basin, which is 15 km north of the international border, there is no compelling tectonic reason to expect that Holocene faults are limited to south of the international border.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Impact of reduced near-field entrainment of overpressured volcanic jets on plume development

Volcanic plumes are often studied using one-dimensional analytical models, which use an empirical entrainment ratio to close the equations. Although this ratio is typically treated as constant, its value near the vent is significantly reduced due to flow development and overpressured conditions. To improve the accuracy of these models, a series of experiments was performed using particle image velocimetry, a high-accuracy, full-field velocity measurement technique. Experiments considered a high-speed jet with Reynolds numbers up to 467,000 and exit pressures up to 2.93 times atmospheric. Exit gas densities were also varied from 0.18 to 1.4 times that of air. The measured velocity was integrated to determine entrainment directly. For jets with exit pressures near atmospheric, entrainment was approximately 30% less than the fully developed level at 20 diameters from the exit. At pressures nearly three times that of the atmosphere, entrainment was 60% less. These results were introduced into Plumeria, a one-dimensional plume model, to examine the impact of reduced entrainment. The maximum column height was only slightly modified, but the critical radius for collapse was significantly reduced, decreasing by nearly a factor of two at moderate eruptive pressures.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Toward an understanding of disequilibrium dihedral angles in mafic rocks

The median dihedral angle at clinopyroxene-plagioclase-plagioclase junctions in mafic rocks, Θcpp, is generally lower than equilibrium (109˚ {plus minus} 2˚). Observation of a wide range of mafic bodies demonstrates that previous work on systematic variations of Θcpp is incorrect in several important respects. Firstly, the spatial distribution of plagioclase compositional zoning demonstrates that the final geometry of three-grain junctions, and hence Θcpp, is formed during solidification (the igneous process): sub-solidus textural modification in most dolerites and gabbros, previously thought to be the dominant control on Θcpp, is insignificant. Θcpp is governed by mass transport constraints, the inhibiting effects of small pore size on crystallization, and variation in relative growth rates of pyroxene and plagioclase. During rapid cooling, pyroxene preferentially fills wider pores while the narrower pores remain melt-filled, resulting in an initial value of Θcpp of 78˚, rather than 60˚ which would be expected if all melt-filled pores were filled with pyroxene. Lower cooling rates create a higher initial Θcpp due to changes in relative growth rates of the two minerals at the nascent three-grain junction. Low Θcpp (associated with cuspate clinopyroxene grains at triple junctions) can also be diagnostic of infiltration of previously melt-free rocks by late-stage evolved liquids (the metasomatic process). Modification of Θcpp by sub-solidus textural equilibration (the metamorphic process) is only important for fine-grained mafic rocks such as chilled margins and intra-plutonic chill zones. In coarse-grained gabbros from shallow crustal intrusions the metamorphic process occurs only in the centres of oikocrysts, associated with rounding of chadacrysts.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Why the 2002 Denali fault rupture propagated onto the Totschunda fault: implications for fault branching and seismic hazards

The propagation of the rupture of the M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake from the central Denali fault onto the Totschunda fault has provided a basis for dynamic models of fault branching in which the angle of the regional or local prestress relative to the orientation of the main fault and branch plays a principal role in determining which fault branch is taken. GeoEarthScope LiDAR and paleoseismic data allow us to map the structure of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection and evaluate controls of fault branching from a geological perspective. LiDAR data reveal the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection is structurally simple with the two faults directly connected. At the branch point, 227.2 km east of the 2002 epicenter, the 2002 rupture diverges southeast to become the Totschunda fault. We use paleoseismic data to propose that differences in the accumulated strain on each fault segment, which express differences in the elapsed time since the most recent event, was one important control of the branching direction. We suggest that data on event history, slip rate, paleo offsets, fault geometry and structure, and connectivity, especially on high slip rate-short recurrence interval faults, can be used to assess the likelihood of branching and its direction. Analysis of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection has implications for evaluating the potential for a rupture to propagate across other types of fault intersections and for characterizing sources of future large earthquakes.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Ash3d: A finite-volume, conservative numerical model for ash transport and tephra deposition

We develop a transient, 3-D Eulerian model (Ash3d) to predict airborne volcanic ash concentration and tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. This model simulates downwind advection, turbulent diffusion, and settling of ash injected into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption column. Ash advection is calculated using time-varying pre-existing wind data and a robust, high-order, finite-volume method. Our routine is mass-conservative and uses the coordinate system of the wind data, either a Cartesian system local to the volcano or a global spherical system for the Earth. Volcanic ash is specified with an arbitrary number of grain sizes, which affects the fall velocity, distribution and duration of transport. Above the source volcano, the vertical mass distribution with elevation is calculated using a Suzuki distribution for a given plume height, eruptive volume, and eruption duration. Multiple eruptions separated in time may be included in a single simulation. We test the model using analytical solutions for transport. Comparisons of the predicted and observed ash distributions for the 18 August 1992 eruption of Mt. Spurr in Alaska demonstrate to the efficacy and efficiency of the routine.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2011

The Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) imaging spectrometer for lunar science: Instrument description, calibration, on‐orbit measurements, science data calibration and on‐orbit validation

The NASA Discovery Moon Mineralogy Mapper imaging spectrometer was selected to pursue a wide range of science objectives requiring measurement of composition at fine spatial scales over the full lunar surface. To pursue these objectives, a broad spectral range imaging spectrometer with high uniformity and high signal-to-noise ratio capable of measuring compositionally diagnostic spectral absorption features from a wide variety of known and possible lunar materials was required. For this purpose the Moon Mineralogy Mapper imaging spectrometer was designed and developed that measures the spectral range from 430 to 3000 nm with 10 nm spectral sampling through a 24 degree field of view with 0.7 milliradian spatial sampling. The instrument has a signal-to-noise ratio of greater than 400 for the specified equatorial reference radiance and greater than 100 for the polar reference radiance. The spectral cross-track uniformity is >90% and spectral instantaneous field-of-view uniformity is >90%. The Moon Mineralogy Mapper was launched on Chandrayaan-1 on the 22nd of October. On the 18th of November 2008 the Moon Mineralogy Mapper was turned on and collected a first light data set within 24 h. During this early checkout period and throughout the mission the spacecraft thermal environment and orbital parameters varied more than expected and placed operational and data quality constraints on the measurements. On the 29th of August 2009, spacecraft communication was lost. Over the course of the flight mission 1542 downlinked data sets were acquired that provide coverage of more than 95% of the lunar surface. An end-to-end science data calibration system was developed and all measurements have been passed through this system and delivered to the Planetary Data System (PDS.NASA.GOV). An extensive effort has been undertaken by the science team to validate the Moon Mineralogy Mapper science measurements in the context of the mission objectives. A focused spectral, radiometric, spatial, and uniformity validation effort has been pursued with selected data sets including an Earth-view data set. With this effort an initial validation of the on-orbit performance of the imaging spectrometer has been achieved, including validation of the cross-track spectral uniformity and spectral instantaneous field of view uniformity. The Moon Mineralogy Mapper is the first imaging spectrometer to measure a data set of this kind at the Moon. These calibrated science measurements are being used to address the full set of science goals and objectives for this mission.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Stability of Mg-sulfates at-10C and the rates of dehydration/rehydration processes under conditions relevant to Mars

We report the results of low temperature (−10°C) experiments on the stability fields and phase transition pathways of five hydrous Mg-sulfates. A low temperature form of MgSO 4 ·7H 2 O (LT-7w) was found to have a wide stability field that extends to low relative humidity (∼13% RH at −10°C). Using information on the timing of phase transitions, we extracted information on the reaction rates of five important dehydration and rehydration processes. We found that the temperature dependencies of rate constants for dehydration processes differ from those of rehydration, which reflect differences in reaction mechanisms. By extrapolating these rate constants versus T correlations into the T range relevant to Mars, we can evaluate the possibility of occurrence of specific processes and the presence of common Mg-sulfate species present on Mars in different periods and locations. We anticipate in a moderate obliquity period, starkeyite and LH-MgSO 4 ·H 2 O should be two common Mg-sulfates at the surface, another polymorph MH-MgSO 4 ·H 2 O can exist at the locations where hydrothermal processes may have occurred. In polar regions or within the subsurface of other regions, meridianiite (coexisting with water ice, near 100% RH) and LT-7w (over a large RH range) are the stable phases. During a high obliquity period, meridianiite and LT-7w should exhibit widespread occurrence. The correlations of reaction rates versus temperature found in this study imply that dehydration and rehydration of hydrous Mg-sulfates would always be slower than the sublimation and crystallization of water ice, which would be supported by mission observations from Odyssey and by Mars Exploration Rovers.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2012

Characterization of previously unidentified lunar pyroclastic deposits using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) data

We used a Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) global monochrome Wide-angle Camera (WAC) mosaic to conduct a survey of the Moon to search for previously unidentified pyroclastic deposits. Promising locations were examined in detail using LROC multispectral WAC mosaics, high-resolution LROC Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) images, and Clementine multispectral (ultraviolet-visible or UVVIS) data. Out of 47 potential deposits chosen for closer examination, 12 were selected as probable newly identified pyroclastic deposits. Potential pyroclastic deposits were generally found in settings similar to previously identified deposits, including areas within or near mare deposits adjacent to highlands, within floor-fractured craters, and along fissures in mare deposits. However, a significant new finding is the discovery of localized pyroclastic deposits within floor-fractured craters Anderson E and F on the lunar farside, isolated from other known similar deposits. Our search confirms that most major regional and localized low-albedo pyroclastic deposits have been identified on the Moon down to ~100 m/pix resolution, and that additional newly identified deposits are likely to be either isolated small deposits or additional portions of discontinuous, patchy deposits.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2012

Advances in the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted granular material: 1. Simulation

1. In this, the first of a pair of papers which address the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted natural granular material, a method is presented for simulation of two-phase (solid, void) assemblages of discrete non-cohesive particles. The purpose is to have a flexible, yet computationally and theoretically simple, suite of tools with well constrained and well known statistical properties, in order to simulate realistic granular material as a discrete element model with realistic size and shape distributions, for a variety of purposes. The stochastic modeling framework is based on three-dimensional tessellations with variable degrees of order in particle-packing arrangement. Examples of sediments with a variety of particle size distributions and spatial variability in grain size are presented. The relationship between particle shape and porosity conforms to published data. The immediate application is testing new algorithms for automated measurements of particle properties (mean and standard deviation of particle sizes, and apparent porosity) from images of natural sediment, as detailed in the second of this pair of papers. The model could also prove useful for simulating specific depositional structures found in natural sediments, the result of physical alterations to packing and grain fabric, using discrete particle flow models. While the principal focus here is on naturally occurring sediment and sedimentary rock, the methods presented might also be useful for simulations of similar granular or cellular material encountered in engineering, industrial and life sciences.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Advances in the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted granular material: 2. Direct measures of particle properties

1. In this, the second of a pair of papers on the structure of well-sorted natural granular material (sediment), new methods are described for automated measurements from images of sediment, of: 1) particle-size standard deviation (arithmetic sorting) with and without apparent void fraction; and 2) mean particle size in material with void fraction. A variety of simulations of granular material are used for testing purposes, in addition to images of natural sediment. Simulations are also used to establish that the effects on automated particle sizing of grains visible through the interstices of the grains at the very surface of a granular material continue to a depth of approximately 4 grain diameters and that this is independent of mean particle size. Ensemble root-mean squared error between observed and estimated arithmetic sorting coefficients for 262 images of natural silts, sands and gravels (drawn from 8 populations) is 31%, which reduces to 27% if adjusted for bias (slope correction between observed and estimated values). These methods allow non-intrusive and fully automated measurements of surfaces of unconsolidated granular material. With no tunable parameters or empirically derived coefficients, they should be broadly universal in appropriate applications. However, empirical corrections may need to be applied for the most accurate results. Finally, analytical formulas are derived for the one-step pore-particle transition probability matrix, estimated from the image's autocorrelogram, from which void fraction of a section of granular material can be estimated directly. This model gives excellent predictions of bulk void fraction yet imperfect predictions of pore-particle transitions.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2011

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Scaling the Teflon Peaks: Rock type and the generation of extreme relief in the glaciated western Alaska Range

Parts of the Alaska Range (Alaska, USA) stand in prominent exception to the “glacial buzzsaw hypothesis,” which postulates that terrain raised above the ELA is rapidly denuded by glaciers. In this paper, we discuss the role of a strong contrast in rock type in the development of this exceptional terrain. Much of the range is developed on pervasively fractured flysch, with local relief of 1000–1500 m, and mean summit elevations that are similar to modern snow line elevations. In contrast, Cretaceous and Tertiary plutons of relatively intact granite support the range's tallest mountains (including Mt. McKinley, or Denali, at 6194 m), with 2500–5000 m of local relief. The high granitic peaks protrude well above modern snow lines and support many large glaciers. We focus on the plutons of the Denali massif and the Kichatna Mountains, to the west. We use field observations, satellite photos, and digital elevation data to demonstrate how exhumation of these plutons affects glacier longitudinal profiles, the glacial drainage network, and the effectiveness of periglacial processes. In strong granite, steep, smooth valley walls are maintained by detachment of rock slabs along sheeting joints. These steep walls act as low-friction surfaces (“Teflon”), efficiently shedding snow. Simple scaling calculations show that this avalanching may greatly enhance the health of the modern glaciers. We conclude that, in places such as Denali, unusual combinations of rapid tectonic uplift and great rock strength have created the highest relief in North America by enhancing glacial erosion in the valleys while preserving the peaks.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Analysis of low-frequency seismic signals generated during a multiple-iceberg calving event at Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

We investigated seismic signals generated during a large-scale, multiple iceberg calving event that occurred at Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, on 21 August 2009. The event was recorded by a high-rate time-lapse camera and five broadband seismic stations located within a few hundred kilometers of the terminus. During the event two full-glacier-thickness icebergs calved from the grounded (or nearly grounded) terminus and immediately capsized; the second iceberg to calve was two to three times smaller than the first. The individual calving and capsize events were well-correlated with the radiation of low-frequency seismic signals (<0.1 Hz) dominated by Love and Rayleigh waves. In agreement with regional records from previously published ‘glacial earthquakes’, these low-frequency seismic signals had maximum power and/or signal-to-noise ratios in the 0.05–0.1 Hz band. Similarly, full waveform inversions indicate that these signals were also generated by horizontal single forces acting at the glacier terminus. The signals therefore appear to be local manifestations of glacial earthquakes, although the magnitudes of the signals (twice-time integrated force histories) were considerably smaller than previously reported glacial earthquakes. We thus speculate that such earthquakes may be a common, if not pervasive, feature of all full-glacier-thickness calving events from grounded termini. Finally, a key result from our study is that waveform inversions performed on low-frequency, calving-generated seismic signals may have only limited ability to quantitatively estimate mass losses from calving. In particular, the choice of source time function has little impact on the inversion but dramatically changes the earthquake magnitude. Accordingly, in our analysis, it is unclear whether the smaller or larger of the two calving icebergs generated a larger seismic signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Displacement fields from point cloud data: Application of particle imaging velocimetry to landslide geodesy

Acquiring spatially continuous ground-surface displacement fields from Terrestrial Laser Scanners (TLS) will allow better understanding of the physical processes governing landslide motion at detailed spatial and temporal scales. Problems arise, however, when estimating continuous displacement fields from TLS point-clouds because reflecting points from sequential scans of moving ground are not defined uniquely, thus repeat TLS surveys typically do not track individual reflectors. Here, we implemented the cross-correlation-based Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) method to derive a surface deformation field using TLS point-cloud data. We estimated associated errors using the shape of the cross-correlation function and tested the method's performance with synthetic displacements applied to a TLS point cloud. We applied the method to the toe of the episodically active Cleveland Corral Landslide in northern California using TLS data acquired in June 2005–January 2007 and January–May 2010. Estimated displacements ranged from decimeters to several meters and they agreed well with independent measurements at better than 9% root mean squared (RMS) error. For each of the time periods, the method provided a smooth, nearly continuous displacement field that coincides with independently mapped boundaries of the slide and permits further kinematic and mechanical inference. For the 2010 data set, for instance, the PIV-derived displacement field identified a diffuse zone of displacement that preceded by over a month the development of a new lateral shear zone. Additionally, the upslope and downslope displacement gradients delineated by the dense PIV field elucidated the non-rigid behavior of the slide.

California↗
USGS2012

Grain-size segregation and levee formation in geophysical mass flows

Data from large-scale debris-flow experiments are combined with modeling of particle-size segregation to explain the formation of lateral levees enriched in coarse grains. The experimental flows consisted of 10 m 3 of water-saturated sand and gravel, which traveled ∼80 m down a steeply inclined flume before forming an elongated leveed deposit 10 m long on a nearly horizontal runout surface. We measured the surface velocity field and observed the sequence of deposition by seeding tracers onto the flow surface and tracking them in video footage. Levees formed by progressive downslope accretion approximately 3.5 m behind the flow front, which advanced steadily at ∼2 m s −1 during most of the runout. Segregation was measured by placing ∼600 coarse tracer pebbles on the bed, which, when entrained into the flow, segregated upwards at ∼6–7.5 cm s −1 . When excavated from the deposit these were distributed in a horseshoe-shaped pattern that became increasingly elevated closer to the deposit termination. Although there was clear evidence for inverse grading during the flow, transect sampling revealed that the resulting leveed deposit was strongly graded laterally, with only weak vertical grading. We construct an empirical, three-dimensional velocity field resembling the experimental observations, and use this with a particle-size segregation model to predict the segregation and transport of material through the flow. We infer that coarse material segregates to the flow surface and is transported to the flow front by shear. Within the flow head, coarse material is overridden, then recirculates in spiral trajectories due to size-segregation, before being advected to the flow edges and deposited to form coarse-particle-enriched levees.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Monitoring glacier surface seismicity in time and space using Rayleigh waves

Sliding glaciers and brittle ice failure generate seismic body and surface wave energy characteristic to the source mechanism. Here we analyze continuous seismic recordings from an array of nine short-period passive seismometers located on Bench Glacier, Alaska (USA) (61.033°N, 145.687°W). We focus on the arrival-time and amplitude information of the dominant Rayleigh wave phase. Over a 46-hour period we detect thousands of events using a cross-correlation based event identification method. Travel-time inversion of a subset of events (7% of the total) defines an active crevasse, propagating more than 200 meters in three hours. From the Rayleigh wave amplitudes, we estimate the amount of volumetric opening along the crevasse as well as an average bulk attenuation ( = 42) for the ice in this part of the glacier. With the remaining icequake signals we establish a diurnal periodicity in seismicity, indicating that surface run-off and subglacial water pressure changes likely control the triggering of these surface events. Furthermore, we find that these events are too weak (i.e., too noisy) to locate individually. However, stacking individual events increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the waveforms, implying that these periodic sources are effectively stationary during the recording period.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment

Debris flows can dramatically increase their volume, and hence their destructive potential, by entraining sediment. Yet quantitative constraints on rates and mechanics of sediment entrainment by debris flows are limited. Using an in situ sensor network in the headwaters of a natural catchment we measured flow and bed properties during six erosive debris-flow events. Despite similar flow properties and thicknesses of bed sediment entrained across all events, time-averaged entrainment rates were significantly faster for bed sediment that was saturated prior to flow arrival compared with rates for sediment that was dry. Bed sediment was entrained from the sediment-surface downward in a progressive fashion and occurred during passage of dense granular fronts as well as water-rich, inter-surge flow. En masse failure of bed sediment along the sediment-bedrock interface was never observed. Large-magnitude, high-frequency fluctuations in total normal basal stress were dissipated within the upper 5 cm of bed sediment. Within this near surface layer, concomitant fluctuations in Coulomb frictional resistance are expected, irrespective of the influence of pore fluid pressure or fluctuations in shear stress. If the near-surface sediment was wet as it was overridden by a flow, additional large-magnitude, high-frequency pore pressure fluctuations were measured in the near-surface bed sediment. These pore pressure fluctuations propagated to depth at subsonic rates and in a diffusive manner. The depth to which large excess pore pressures propagated was typically less than 10 cm, but scaled as ( D / f i ) 0.5 , in which D is the hydraulic diffusivity and f i is the frequency of a particular pore pressure fluctuation. Shallow penetration depths of granular-normal-stress fluctuations and excess pore pressures demonstrate that only near-surface bed sediment experiences the full dynamic range of effective-stress fluctuations, and as a result, can be more easily entrained than deeper sediment. These data provide robust tests for mechanical models of entrainment and demonstrate that a debris flow over wet bed sediment will be larger than the same flow over dry bed sediment.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

Florida↗