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USGS2011

Setting limits: Using air pollution thresholds to protect and restore U.S. ecosystems

More than four decades of research provide unequivocal evidence that sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury pollution have altered, and will continue to alter, our nation's lands and waters. The emission and deposition of air pollutants harm native plants and animals, degrade water quality, affect forest productivity, and are damaging to human health. Many air quality policies limit emissions at the source but these control measures do not always consider ecosystem impacts. Air pollution thresholds at which ecological effects are observed, such as critical loads, are effective tools for assessing the impacts of air pollution on essential ecosystem services and for informing public policy. U.S. ecosystems can be more effectively protected and restored by using a combination of emissions-based approaches and science-based thresholds of ecosystem damage. Based on the results of a comprehensive review of air pollution thresholds, we conclude: ??? Ecosystem services such as air and water purification, decomposition and detoxification of waste materials, climate regulation, regeneration of soil fertility, production and biodiversity maintenance, as well as crop, timber and fish supplies are impacted by deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, mercury and other pollutants. The consequences of these changes may be difficult or impossible to reverse as impacts cascade throughout affected ecosystems. ??? The effects of too much nitrogen are common across the U.S. and include altered plant and lichen communities, enhanced growth of invasive species, eutrophication and acidification of lands and waters, and habitat deterioration for native species, including endangered species. ??? Lake, stream and soil acidification is widespread across the eastern United States. Up to 65% of lakes within sensitive areas receive acid deposition that exceeds critical loads. ??? Mercury contamination adversely affects fish in many inland and coastal waters. Fish consumption advisories for mercury exist in all 50 states and on many tribal lands. High concentrations of mercury in wildlife are also widespread and have multiple adverse effects. ??? Air quality programs, such as those stemming from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, have helped decrease air pollution even as population and energy demand have increased. Yet, they do not adequately protect ecosystems from long-term damage. Moreover they do not address ammonia emissions. ??? A stronger ecosystem basis for air pollutant policies could be established through adoption of science-based thresholds. Existing monitoring programs track vital information needed to measure the response to policies, and could be expanded to include appropriate chemical and biological indicators for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and establishment of a national ecosystem monitoring network for mercury. The development and use of air pollution thresholds for ecosystem protection and management is increasing in the United States, yet threshold approaches remain underutilized. Ecological thresholds for air pollution, such as critical loads for nitrogen and sulfur deposition, are not currently included in the formal regulatory process for emissions controls in the United States, although they are now considered in local management decisions by the National Park Service and U.S. Forest Service. Ecological thresholds offer a scientifically sound approach to protecting and restoring U.S. ecosystems and an important tool for natural resource management and policy. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2016

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2013

Biodiversity and disease: a synthesis of ecological perspectives on Lyme disease transmission.

Recent reviews have argued that disease control is among the ecosystem services yielded by biodiversity. Lyme disease (LD) is commonly cited as the best example of the ‘diluting’ effect of biodiversity on disease transmission, but many studies document the opposite relationship, showing that human LD risk can increase with forestation. Here, we unify these divergent perspectives and find strong evidence for a positive link between biodiversity and LD at broad spatial scales (urban to suburban to rural) and equivocal evidence for a negative link between biodiversity and LD at varying levels of biodiversity within forests. This finding suggests that, across zoonotic disease agents, the biodiversity–disease relationship is scale dependent and complex.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2025

Using advanced machine learning to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of human–bear interactions in Maryland, USA

American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) are highly adaptable to human-dominated areas, which can lead to interactions with humans. Managing these interactions is a priority for many wildlife agencies in North America. Climate-induced shortages in natural food can exacerbate human–bear interactions, as bears are driven to seek alternative food sources in human-dominated areas. However, few studies have investigated the impact of climate or weather on the frequency and severity of human–bear interactions. In Maryland, USA, no research has examined the anthropogenic or environmental factors contributing to human–bear interactions, even though reported interactions have consistently increased since the 1990s. Our research addresses these knowledge gaps by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques, specifically eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to analyze 15 anthropogenic and environmental features in relation to human–bear interactions in Maryland from 2020 through 2023. Through our analysis, we identified meaningful anthropogenic and landscape features that aid in predicting interaction risk and highlighted the often overlooked influence of weather. Our findings revealed an increased risk of interactions during and after droughts, which we visualized on maps that identify predicted high-risk areas across the state. Our research demonstrates the utility of integrating advanced machine learning techniques into ecological studies to achieve high predictive accuracy and inform evidence-based management decisions. The insights and visualizations produced from this effort are designed to support wildlife managers as they assess risk, allocate resources, and develop proactive strategies to foster coexistence between humans and bears in a rapidly changing environment.

Maryland↗

USGS2012

Use of alligator hole abundance and occupancy rate as indicators for restoration of a human-altered wetland

Use of indicator species as a measure of ecosystem conditions is an established science application in environmental management. Because of its role in shaping wetland systems, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is one of the ecological indicators for wetland restoration in south Florida, USA. We conducted landscape-level aerial surveys of alligator holes in two different habitats in a wetland where anthropogenic modification of surface hydrology has altered the natural system. Alligator holes were scarcer in an area where modified hydrology caused draining and frequent dry-downs compared to another area that maintains a functional wetland system. Lower abundance of alligator holes indicates lack of alligator activities, lower overall species diversity, and lack of dry-season aquatic refugia for other organisms. The occupancy rate of alligator holes was lower than the current restoration target for the Everglades, and was variable by size class with large size-class alligators predominantly occupying alligator holes. This may indicate unequal size-class distribution, different habitat selection by size classes, or possibly a lack of recruitment. Our study provides pre-restoration baseline information about one indicator species for the Everglades. Success of the restoration can be assessed via effective synthesis of information derived by collective research efforts on the entire suite of selected ecological indicators.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Predator-induced demographic shifts in coral reef fish assemblages

In recent years, it has become apparent that human impacts have altered community structure in coastal and marine ecosystems worldwide. Of these, fishing is one of the most pervasive, and a growing body of work suggests that fishing can have strong effects on the ecology of target species, especially top predators. However, the effects of removing top predators on lower trophic groups of prey fishes are less clear, particularly in highly diverse and trophically complex coral reef ecosystems. We examined patterns of abundance, size structure, and age-based demography through surveys and collection-based studies of five fish species from a variety of trophic levels at Kiritimati and Palmyra, two nearby atolls in the Northern Line Islands. These islands have similar biogeography and oceanography, and yet Kiritimati has ∼10,000 people with extensive local fishing while Palmyra is a US National Wildlife Refuge with no permanent human population, no fishing, and an intact predator fauna. Surveys indicated that top predators were relatively larger and more abundant at unfished Palmyra, while prey functional groups were relatively smaller but showed no clear trends in abundance as would be expected from classic trophic cascades. Through detailed analyses of focal species, we found that size and longevity of a top predator were lower at fished Kiritimati than at unfished Palmyra. Demographic patterns also shifted dramatically for 4 of 5 fish species in lower trophic groups, opposite in direction to the top predator, including decreases in average size and longevity at Palmyra relative to Kiritimati. Overall, these results suggest that fishing may alter community structure in complex and non-intuitive ways, and that indirect demographic effects should be considered more broadly in ecosystem-based management.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2010

Hydrological connectivity for riverine fish: measurement challenges and research opportunities

In this review, we first summarize how hydrologic connectivity has been studied for riverine fish capable of moving long distances, and then identify research opportunities that have clear conservation significance. Migratory species, such as anadromous salmonids, are good model organisms for understanding ecological connectivity in rivers because the spatial scale over which movements occur among freshwater habitats is large enough to be easily observed with available techniques; they are often economically or culturally valuable with habitats that can be easily fragmented by human activities; and they integrate landscape conditions from multiple surrounding catchment(s) with in‐river conditions. Studies have focussed on three themes: (i) relatively stable connections (connections controlled by processes that act over broad spatio‐temporal scales >1000 km 2 and >100 years); (ii) dynamic connections (connections controlled by processes acting over fine to moderate spatio‐temporal scales ∼1–1000 km 2 and <1–100 years); and (iii) anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity, including actions that disrupt or enhance natural connections experienced by fish. We outline eight challenges to understanding the role of connectivity in riverine fish ecology, organized under three foci: (i) addressing the constraints of river structure; (ii) embracing temporal complexity in hydrologic connectivity; and (iii) managing connectivity for riverine fishes. Challenges include the spatial structure of stream networks, the force and direction of flow, scale‐dependence of connectivity, shifting boundaries, complexity of behaviour and life histories and quantifying anthropogenic influence on connectivity and aligning management goals. As we discuss each challenge, we summarize relevant approaches in the literature and provide additional suggestions for improving research and management of connectivity for riverine fishes. Specifically, we suggest that rapid advances are possible in the following arenas: (i) incorporating network structure and river discharge into analyses; (ii) increasing explicit consideration of temporal complexity and fish behaviour in the scope of analyses; and (iii) parsing degrees of human and natural influences on connectivity and defining acceptable alterations. Multiscale analyses are most likely to identify dominant patterns of connections and disconnections, and the appropriate scale at which to focus conservation activities.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2026

Conflicts and collisions with an endangered carnivore: Landscape drivers and spatial risk pattern

Human–wildlife conflicts and anthropogenic mortality are expected to increase with the continuous encroachment on natural habitats within and around protected areas, yet the processes governing these risks remain poorly understood. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of two distinct processes involving the endangered Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ; hereafter, panther): (1) direct human–panther interactions and livestock depredation (hereafter, conflicts), and (2) vehicle collisions (hereafter, collisions). Using long-term data collected between 2006 and 2022 within the panther's breeding range in Southwest Florida, USA, we applied dynamic occupancy models to estimate probabilities of occurrence, colonization, and extinction of conflicts and collisions while accounting for imperfect detection. A total of 277 conflicts and 239 collisions were recorded during the study period. Occurrence probabilities for both conflicts and collisions increased during the early years of the study and subsequently stabilized. Landscape configuration consistently showed strong associations with both processes. Conflicts were more likely in areas with fragmented but closely spaced habitat patches, whereas collisions were more likely along road segments characterized by connected landscapes with low resistance to panther movement. In contrast, areas that showed greater distances between habitat patches and increased proportions of protected area were associated with lower probabilities of conflict or collision persistence over time. A predictive map was created to highlight areas with high probability of conflict and road segments with high probability of collision in Southwest Florida, USA. Identifying areas with elevated risk can inform targeted mitigation strategies, including habitat management, wildlife crossings, and outreach efforts, and further support long-term coexistence between humans and large carnivore populations.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Applied aspects of locomotion and biomechanics

Locomotion is the act and process of moving from place to place, which is fundamental to the life history of all mobile organisms. While the field of biomechanics encompasses the study of the physical constraints of what animals are capable of, ecological contexts require an integrated view that includes ecology and behavior. This chapter provides an overview of some of the areas where locomotion and biomechanics of fish movement interface with the rapidly evolving changes that humans impose on aquatic environments. These changes include fundamental alterations to the environment such as altered flows, fragmentation of riverine habitats, and invasive species, but also direct interactions that occur with capture fisheries. We explore each of these areas, considering both challenges and opportunities informed by the study of locomotion and biomechanics, emphasizing how this field can contribute to conservation of fishes in the Anthropocene. We then turn to technology, where important advances are aiding in our understanding of fish movement. In some cases those advances have themselves led to novel technologies, where biomimetic robots and related devices offer novel opportunities, both for conservation and for other pursuits.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

A spatial model of streaked horned lark breeding habitat in the Columbia River, USA

The streaked horned lark (hereafter “lark”; Eremophila alpestris strigata ) is a federally listed bird subspecies of the Pacific Northwest that occupies open landscapes with short vegetation and abundant bare ground. Across its breeding range, which has contracted dramatically, the lark relies primarily on human-modified habitats maintained in early successional states (e.g., agricultural fields, airfields, deposition islands). The focus of our study is the lower Columbia River where larks primarily occupy deposition islands created as a byproduct of shipping channel deepening (dredging) projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has proactively adopted a shifting-habitat-mosaic management approach when placing dredge (sand) materials to maintain lark habitat throughout the project area. To help achieve their goal, we created a geospatial tool capable of quantifying and tracking habitat suitability for larks throughout the project area with satellite imagery. We created spatial models of lark breeding habitat by incorporating lark survey data, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, dredge-deposition maps, and surface-elevation models. We built candidate predictive models of lark breeding habitat after combining survey data (years 2016 and 2017), predictor variables, and logistic regression. In addition, we created a novel seral-stage predictor variable to identify young, mature, old, and unsuitable locations; critical information for lark conservation planning and dredge-disposal operational planning. We challenged probability models the year they were constructed (2016) and the following year (2017) with set-aside survey data. The best model contained terrain ruggedness, deposition age, vegetation greenness (e.g., lushness and density of vegetation) inside a 10-m cell, and heterogeneity in greenness within a 100-m radius. Verification accuracy ranged from 75 to 83% depending on the model tested and year. Importantly, the seral-stage variable allowed us to quantify and locate early, optimal, and late habitats. Model results will facilitate conservation planning decisions by informing real-time management decisions. Furthermore, they provide a foundation for application in other human-modified habitats across the species’ range.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Habitat associations of breeding conifer-associated birds in managed and regenerating forested stands

Forests are often affected by management that could influence demographics of breeding and post-breeding birds that reside within. Numerous studies have focused on immediate effects from management on wildlife soon after forestry treatment (e.g., 0–5 years), however, fewer studies have examined changes in focal species abundance over longer durations as a forest regenerates after disturbance. We examined how forest management influenced 18 conifer-associated birds during breeding and post-breeding over the forest regeneration period in a landscape dominated by forestry. To achieve this, we paired avian detection data from point count surveys in lowland conifer and mixed-wood forests with Bayesian distance-removal models and an information-theoretic framework. We estimated abundance and associations with seven common forestry treatment categories applied at the stand scale, years-since-harvest (YSH; 5–120+), and seven vegetation variables measured within stands. Forestry treatment categories and YSH were poor predictors of abundance, and none of the 14 species with good-fitting models had associations with these covariates. Twelve of 13 species with good-fitting models had important associations between abundance and vegetation variables. All vegetation variables were associated with abundance of some species, irrespective of the forestry treatment in which the site occurred, including spruce-fir tree composition (seven species), tree basal area (six species), midstory cover (five species), live crown ratio (three species), shrub cover (three species), tree diameter at breast height (two species), and shrub composition (one species). In a companion study, several species assemblages were associated with vegetation variables (i.e., spruce-fir tree composition, tree basal area, and tree diameter at breast height) that varied with YSH and forestry treatments, suggesting that some forestry treatments may indirectly influence avian abundance when certain vegetation outcomes are achieved. Our results suggest that managers should target species-specific vegetation outcomes rather than more broadly categorized forestry treatment types when managing for individual focal species because of large variations in vegetative outcomes across stands within a forest treatment category. Our study informs management and conservation of biodiversity in regions such as the Atlantic Northern Forest where commercial forestry is the dominant human land use.

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont↗

USGS2017

Trends and drivers of fire activity vary across California aridland ecosystems

Fire activity has increased in western US aridland ecosystems due to increased human-caused ignitions and the expansion of flammable exotic grasses. Because many desert plants are not adapted to fire, increased fire activity may have long-lasting ecological impacts on native vegetation and the wildlife that depend on it. Given the heterogeneity across aridland ecosystems, it is important to understand how trends and drivers of fire vary, so management can be customized accordingly. We examined historical trends and quantified the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers of fire patterns across five aridland ecoregions in southeastern California from 1970 to 2010. Fire frequency increased across all ecoregions for the first couple decades, and declined or plateaued since the 1990s; but area burned continued to increase in some regions. The relative importance of anthropogenic and biophysical drivers varied across ecoregions, with both direct and indirect influences on fire. Anthropogenic variables were equally important as biophysical variables, but some contributed indirectly, presumably via their influence on annual grass distribution and abundance. Grass burned disproportionately more than other cover types, suggesting that addressing exotics may be the key to fire management and conservation in much of the area.

California↗

USGS2016

Fishes in paleochannels of the Lower Mississippi River alluvial valley: A national treasure

Fluvial geomorphology of the alluvial valley of the Lower Mississippi River reveals a fascinating history. A prominent occupant of the valley was the Ohio River, estimated to have flowed 25,000 years ago over western Tennessee and Mississippi to join the Mississippi River north of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 750–800 km south of the present confluence. Over time, shifts in the Mississippi and Ohio rivers toward their contemporary positions have left a legacy of abandoned paleochannels supportive of unique fish assemblages. Relative to channels abandoned in the last 500 years, paleochannels exhibit harsher environmental conditions characteristic of hypereutrophic lakes and support tolerant fish assemblages. Considering their ecological, geological, and historical importance, coupled with their primordial scenery, the hundreds of paleochannels in the valley represent a national treasure. Altogether, these waterscapes are endangered by human activities and would benefit from the conservation attention afforded to our national parks and wildlife refuges.

Lower Mississippi River valley↗

USGS2007

Frequent transmission of immunodeficiency viruses among bobcats and pumas

With the exception of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which emerged in humans after cross-species transmissions of simian immunodeficiency viruses from nonhuman primates, immunodeficiency viruses of the family Lentiviridae represent species-specific viruses that rarely cross species barriers to infect new hosts. Among the Felidae, numerous immunodeficiency-like lentiviruses have been documented, but only a few cross-species transmissions have been recorded, and these have not been perpetuated in the recipient species. Lentivirus seroprevalence was determined for 79 bobcats (Lynx rufus) and 31 pumas (Puma concolor) from well-defined populations in Southern California. Partial genomic sequences were subsequently obtained from 18 and 12 seropositive bobcats and pumas, respectively. Genotypes were analyzed for phylogenic relatedness and genotypic composition among the study set and archived feline lentivirus sequences. This investigation of feline immunodeficiency virus infection in bobcats and pumas of Southern California provides evidence that cross-species infection has occurred frequently among these animals. The data suggest that transmission has occurred in multiple locations and are most consistent with the spread of the virus from bobcats to pumas. Although the ultimate causes remain unknown, these transmission events may occur as a result of puma predation on bobcats, a situation similar to that which fostered transmission of HIV to humans, and likely represent the emergence of a lentivirus with relaxed barriers to cross-species transmission. This unusual observation provides a valuable opportunity to evaluate the ecological, behavioral, and molecular conditions that favor repeated transmissions and persistence of lentivirus between species. Copyright ?? 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Journal of Virology↗

USGS2002

Alien plant species threat assessment and management prioritization for Sequoia-Kings Canyon and Yosemite National Parks

Executive Summary This document reports the results of alien species surveys at Sequoia-Kings Canyon and Yosemite national parks. It includes the findings of a comprehensive literature review of the biology and ecology of all alien plant species found during these surveys and the ranking of those species for prioritizing management and control programs. Surveys primarily targeted areas of human disturbance, such as campgrounds, corrals, developments, roads, trails and pastures. Alien species richness was compared across elevational gradients within the parks. To compare and contrast species composition among sites, an exploratory cluster analysis of the sites included in the speciesrichness- by-elevation figures was conducted using ordination techniques. All alien species discovered during the directed surveys were grouped into one of four management priority categories based on their attributes, potential impacts, and geographical extent. Category 1 species are aliens that are currently restricted to a relatively small number of sites in each park and have either been shown to greatly affect native vegetation or have a high probability of causing serious impacts. Category 2 species are restricted to a relatively small number of sites and are ones that generally have a lesser effect on native vegetation. Category 3 species are broadly distributed in the parks, are apparently increasing their ranges within the parks, and are those that have been shown to have a great impact on native vegetation. Category 4 species are those that were detected by the surveys but not assigned to one of the three ranked categories and are considered low priority.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2002

Polar bear management in Alaska 1997-2000

Since the Twelfth Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group in 1997, a number of changes in the management of polar bears have occurred in Alaska. On October 16, 2000, the governments of the United States and the Russian Federation signed the “Agreement on the Conservation and Management of the Alaska-Chukotka Polar Bear Population.” This agreement provides substantial benefits for the effective conservation of polar bears shared between the U.S. and Russia. It will require enactment of enabling legislation by the U.S. Congress and other steps by Russia before the agreement has the force of law. A copy of the agreement is included as Appendix 1 to this report. Also, during this period, regulations were developed to implement 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which allow polar bear trophies taken in approved Canadian populations by U.S. citizens to be imported into the U.S. A summary of the regulatory actions and a table listing populations approved for importation and the number of polar bears imported into the U.S. since 1997 is included in this report. Regarding oil and gas activities in polar bear habitat, three sets of regulations were published authorizing the incidental, non-intentional, taking of small numbers of polar bears concurrent to oil and gas activities. Cooperation continued with the Alaska Nanuuq Commission, representing the polar bear hunting communities in Alaska, as well as with the North Slope Borough and the Inuvialuit Game Council in their agreement for the management of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population. Harvest summaries and technical assistance in designing and assistance in conducting a National Park Service/Alaska Nanuuq Commission study to collect traditional ecological knowledge of polar bear habitat use in Chukotka were provided. In addition, a long-range plan was developed to address and minimize polar bear-human conflicts in North Slope communities. We continued to monitor the harvest of polar bears in Alaska and collect and analyze specimens for presence and level of organochlorine compounds and trace elements. A paper on genetic assessment of hunter reported sex of harvested bears was recently published (Schliebe et al. 1999). Population status and trend assessment efforts continued. An aerial survey of polar bears in the Eastern Chukchi Sea and western portions of the Southern Beaufort Sea was conducted from the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker “Polar Star” in August 2000. The first year of a multi-year survey of barrier islands and coastlines during the open water and freeze-up phase was conducted in the central Southern Beaufort Sea during fall 2000.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Enhancing the predictability of ecology in a changing world: A call for an organism-based approach

Ecology is usually very good in making descriptive explanations of what is observed, but is often unable to make predictions of the response of ecosystems to change. This has implications in a human-dominated world where a suite of anthropogenic stresses are threatening the resilience and functioning of ecosystems that sustain mankind through a range of critical regulating and supporting services. In ecosystems, cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to elucidate because of complex networks of negative and positive feedbacks. Therefore, being able to effectively predict when and where ecosystems could pass into different (and potentially unstable) new states is vitally important under rapid global change. Here, we argue that such better predictions may be reached if we focus on organisms instead of species, because organisms are the principal biotic agents in ecosystems that react directly on changes in their environment. Several studies show that changes in ecosystems may be accurately described as the result of changes in organisms and their interactions. Organism-based theories are available that are simple and derived from first principles, but allow many predictions. Of these we discuss Trait-based Ecology, Agent Based Models, and Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology and show that together they form a logical sequence of approaches that allow organism-based studies of ecological communities. Combining and extending them makes it possible to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of groups of organisms in terms of how metabolic energy is distributed over areas, time, and resources. We expect that this “Organism-based Ecology” (OE) ultimately will improve our ability to predict ecosystem dynamics.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗