Seismic hazard from the Hispaniola subduction zone: correction to "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region"
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A three-part algorithm is described and tested to provide robust bathymetry maps based solely on long time series observations of surface wave motions. The first phase consists of frequency-dependent characterization of the wave field in which dominant frequencies are estimated by Fourier transform while corresponding wave numbers are derived from spatial gradients in cross-spectral phase over analysis tiles that can be small, allowing high-spatial resolution. Coherent spatial structures at each frequency are extracted by frequency-dependent empirical orthogonal function (EOF). In phase two, depths are found that best fit weighted sets of frequency-wave number pairs. These are subsequently smoothed in time in phase 3 using a Kalman filter that fills gaps in coverage and objectively averages new estimates of variable quality with prior estimates. Objective confidence intervals are returned. Tests at Duck, NC, using 16 surveys collected over 2 years showed a bias and root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.19 and 0.51 m, respectively but were largest near the offshore limits of analysis (roughly 500 m from the camera) and near the steep shoreline where analysis tiles mix information from waves, swash and static dry sand. Performance was excellent for small waves but degraded somewhat with increasing wave height. Sand bars and their small-scale alongshore variability were well resolved. A single ground truth survey from a dissipative, low-sloping beach (Agate Beach, OR) showed similar errors over a region that extended several kilometers from the camera and reached depths of 14 m. Vector wave number estimates can also be incorporated into data assimilation models of nearshore dynamics.
Spur and groove (SAG) formations are found on the fore reefs of many coral reefs worldwide. Although these formations are primarily present in wave‐dominated environments, their effect on wave‐driven hydrodynamics is not well understood. A two‐dimensional, depth‐averaged, phase‐resolving nonlinear Boussinesq model ( funwaveC ) was used to model hydrodynamics on a simplified SAG system. The modeling results show that the SAG formations together with shoaling waves induce a nearshore Lagrangian circulation pattern of counter‐rotating circulation cells. The mechanism driving the modeled flow is an alongshore imbalance between the pressure gradient (PG) and nonlinear wave (NLW) terms in the momentum balance. Variations in model parameters suggest the strongest factors affecting circulation include spur‐normal waves, increased wave height, weak alongshore currents, increased spur height, and decreased bottom drag. The modeled circulation is consistent with a simple scaling analysis based on the dynamical balance of NLW, PG, and bottom stress terms. Model results indicate that the SAG formations efficiently drive circulation cells when the alongshore SAG wavelength allows for the effects of diffraction to create alongshore differences in wave height without changing the mean wave angle.
Assessments of climate change over time scales that exceed the last 100 years require robust integration of high-quality instrument records with high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data. In this study, we show that the recent biogenic sediments accumulating in two temperate ice-free fjords in Southeast Alaska preserve evidence of North Pacific Ocean climate variability as recorded by both instrument networks and satellite observations. Multicore samples EW0408-32MC and EW0408-43MC were investigated with 137 Cs and excess 210 Pb geochronometry, three-dimensional computed tomography, high-resolution scanning XRF geochemistry, and organic stable isotope analyses. EW0408-32MC (57.162°N, 135.357°W, 146 m depth) is a moderately bioturbated continuous record that spans AD ∼1930–2004. EW0408-43MC (56.965°N, 135.268°W, 91 m depth) is composed of laminated diatom oozes, a turbidite, and a hypopycnal plume (river flood) deposit. A discontinuous event-based varve chronology indicates 43MC spans AD ∼1940–1981. Decadal-scale fluctuations in sedimentary Br/Cl ratios accurately reflect changes in marine organic matter accumulation that display the same temporal pattern as that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. An estimated Sitka summer productivity parameter calibrated using SeaWiFS satellite observations support these relationships. The correlation of North Pacific climate regime states, primary productivity, and sediment geochemistry indicate the accumulation of biogenic sediment in Southeast Alaska temperate fjords can be used as a sensitive recorder of past productivity variability, and by inference, past climate conditions in the high-latitude Gulf of Alaska.
This study characterizes the seasonal cycle of the Catalan inner-shelf circulation using observations and complementary numerical results. The relation between seasonal circulation and forcing mechanisms is explored through the depth-averaged momentum balance, for the period between May 2010 and April 2011, when velocity observations were partially available. The monthly-mean along-shelf flow is mainly controlled by the along-shelf pressure gradient and by surface and bottom stresses. During summer, fall, and winter, the along-shelf momentum balance is dominated by the barotropic pressure gradient and local winds. During spring, both wind stress and pressure gradient act in the same direction and are compensated by bottom stress. In the cross-shelf direction the dominant forces are in geostrophic balance, consistent with dynamic altimetry data.
This study investigates the variability of clouds, primarily marine stratus clouds, and how they are associated with surface temperature anomalies over California, especially along the coastal margin. We focus on the summer months of June to September when marine stratus are the dominant cloud type. Data used include satellite cloud reflectivity (cloud albedo) measurements, hourly surface observations of cloud cover and air temperature at coastal airports, and observed values of daily surface temperature at stations throughout California and Nevada. Much of the anomalous variability of summer clouds is organized over regional patterns that affect considerable portions of the coast, often extend hundreds of kilometers to the west and southwest over the North Pacific, and are bounded to the east by coastal mountains. The occurrence of marine stratus is positively correlated with both the strength and height of the thermal inversion that caps the marine boundary layer, with inversion base height being a key factor in determining their inland penetration. Cloud cover is strongly associated with surface temperature variations. In general, increased presence of cloud (higher cloud albedo) produces cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Summer daytime temperature fluctuations associated with cloud cover variations typically exceed 1°C. The inversion-cloud albedo-temperature associations that occur at daily timescales are also found at seasonal timescales.
Mineral aerosols are produced during the erosion of soils by wind and are a common source of particles (dust) in arid and semiarid regions. The size of these particles varies widely from less than 2 µm to larger particles that can exceed 50 µm in diameter. In this study, we present two continuous records of total suspended particle (TSP) concentrations at sites in Mesa Verde and Canyonlands National Parks in Colorado and Utah, USA, respectively, and compare those values to measurements of fine and coarse particle concentrations made from nearby samplers. Average annual concentrations of TSP at Mesa Verde were 90 µg m−3 in 2011 and at Canyonlands were 171 µg m −3 in 2009, 113 µg m −3 in 2010, and 134 µg m −3 in 2011. In comparison, annual concentrations of fine (diameter of 2.5 µm and below) and coarse (2.5–10 µm diameter) particles at these sites were below 10 µg m −3 in all years. The high concentrations of TSP appear to be the result of regional dust storms with elevated concentrations of particles greater than 10 µm in diameter. These conditions regularly occur from spring through fall with 2 week mean TSP periodically in excess of 200 µg m −3 . Measurement of particles on filters indicates that the median particle size varies between approximately 10 µm in winter and 40 µm during the spring. These persistently elevated concentrations of large particles indicate that regional dust emission as dust storms and events are important determinants of air quality in this region.
We have measured the bidirectional reflectance of analogs of dry, wet, and frozen Martian soils over a wide range of phase angles in the visible spectral range. All samples were produced from two geologic samples: the standard JSC Mars-1 soil simulant and Hawaiian basaltic sand. In a first step, experiments were conducted with the dry samples to investigate the effects of surface texture. Comparisons with results independently obtained by different teams with similar samples showed a satisfying reproducibility of the photometric measurements as well as a noticeable influence of surface textures resulting from different sample preparation procedures. In a second step, water was introduced to produce wet and frozen samples and their photometry investigated. Optical microscope images of the samples provided information about their microtexture. Liquid water, even in relatively low amount, resulted in the disappearance of the backscattering peak and the appearance of a forward-scattering peak whose intensity increases with the amount of water. Specular reflections only appeared when water was present in an amount large enough to allow water to form a film at the surface of the sample. Icy samples showed a wide variability of photometric properties depending on the physical properties of the water ice. We discuss the implications of these measurements in terms of the expected photometric behavior of the Martian surface, from equatorial to circum-polar regions. In particular, we propose some simple photometric criteria to improve the identification of wet and/or icy soils from multiple observations under different geometries.
Aeolian transport is an important characteristic of many arid and semiarid regions worldwide that affects dust emission and ecosystem processes. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a recent model of aeolian transport in the presence of vegetation. This approach differs from previous models by accounting for how vegetation affects the distribution of shear velocity on the surface rather than merely calculating the average effect of vegetation on surface shear velocity or simply using empirical relationships. Vegetation, soil, and meteorological data at 65 field sites with measurements of horizontal aeolian flux were collected from the Western United States. Measured fluxes were tested against modeled values to evaluate model performance, to obtain a set of optimum model parameters, and to estimate the uncertainty in these parameters. The same field data were used to model horizontal aeolian flux using three other schemes. Our results show that the model can predict horizontal aeolian flux with an approximate relative error of 2.1 and that further empirical corrections can reduce the approximate relative error to 1.0. The level of error is within what would be expected given uncertainties in threshold shear velocity and wind speed at our sites. The model outperforms the alternative schemes both in terms of approximate relative error and the number of sites at which threshold shear velocity was exceeded. These results lend support to an understanding of the physics of aeolian transport in which (1) vegetation's impact on transport is dependent upon the distribution of vegetation rather than merely its average lateral cover and (2) vegetation impacts surface shear stress locally by depressing it in the immediate lee of plants rather than by changing the bulk surface's threshold shear velocity. Our results also suggest that threshold shear velocity is exceeded more than might be estimated by single measurements of threshold shear stress and roughness length commonly associated with vegetated surfaces, highlighting the variation of threshold shear velocity with space and time in real landscapes.
It has been proposed that debris flows cut bedrock valleys in steeplands worldwide, but field measurements needed to constrain mechanistic models of this process remain sparse due to the difficulty of instrumenting natural flows. Here we present and analyze measurements made using an automated sensor network, erosion bolts, and a 15.24 cm by 15.24 cm force plate installed in the bedrock channel floor of a steep catchment. These measurements allow us to quantify the distribution of basal forces from natural debris‒flow events that incised bedrock. Over the 4 year monitoring period, 11 debris‒flow events scoured the bedrock channel floor. No clear water flows were observed. Measurements of erosion bolts at the beginning and end of the study indicated that the bedrock channel floor was lowered by 36 to 64 mm. The basal force during these erosive debris‒flow events had a large‒magnitude (up to 21 kN, which was approximately 50 times larger than the concurrent time‒averaged mean force), high‒frequency (greater than 1 Hz) fluctuating component. We interpret these fluctuations as flow particles impacting the bed. The resulting variability in force magnitude increased linearly with the time‒averaged mean basal force. Probability density functions of basal normal forces were consistent with a generalized Pareto distribution, rather than the exponential distribution that is commonly found in experimental and simulated monodispersed granular flows and which has a lower probability of large forces. When the bed sediment thickness covering the force plate was greater than ~ 20 times the median bed sediment grain size, no significant fluctuations about the time‒averaged mean force were measured, indicating that a thin layer of sediment (~ 5 cm in the monitored cases) can effectively shield the subjacent bed from erosive impacts. Coarse‒grained granular surges and water‒rich, intersurge flow had very similar basal force distributions despite differences in appearance and bulk‒flow density. These results demonstrate that debris flows can have strong control on rates of steepland evolution and contribute to a foundation needed for modeling debris‒flow incision stochastically.
Measurements of morphologic change are often used to infer sediment mass balance. Such measurements may, however, result in gross errors when morphologic changes over short reaches are extrapolated to predict changes in sediment mass balance for long river segments. This issue is investigated by examination of morphologic change and sediment influx and efflux for a 100 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona. For each of four monitoring intervals within a 7 year study period, the direction of sand-storage response within short morphologic monitoring reaches was consistent with the flux-based sand mass balance. Both budgeting methods indicate that sand storage was stable or increased during the 7 year period. Extrapolation of the morphologic measurements outside the monitoring reaches does not, however, provide a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of sand-storage change for the 100 km study area. Extrapolation results in large errors, because there is large local variation in site behavior driven by interactions between the flow and local bed topography. During the same flow regime and reach-average sediment supply, some locations accumulate sand while others evacuate sand. The interaction of local hydraulics with local channel geometry exerts more control on local morphodynamic response than sand supply over an encompassing river segment. Changes in the upstream supply of sand modify bed responses but typically do not completely offset the effect of local hydraulics. Thus, accurate sediment budgets for long river segments inferred from reach-scale morphologic measurements must incorporate the effect of local hydraulics in a sampling design or avoid extrapolation altogether.
The spatial distribution of riparian vegetation can strongly influence the geomorphic evolution of dryland rivers during large floods. We present the results of an airborne lidar differencing study that quantifies the topographic change that occurred along a 12 km reach of the Lower Rio Puerco, New Mexico, during an extreme event in 2006. Extensive erosion of the channel banks took place immediately upstream of the study area, where tamarisk and sandbar willow had been removed. Within the densely vegetated study reach, we measure a net volumetric change of 578,050 ± ∼ 490,000 m 3 , with 88.3% of the total aggradation occurring along the floodplain and channel and 76.7% of the erosion focusing on the vertical valley walls. The sediment derived from the devegetated reach deposited within the first 3.6 km of the study area, with depth decaying exponentially with distance downstream. Elsewhere, floodplain sediments were primarily sourced from the erosion of valley walls. Superimposed on this pattern are the effects of vegetation and valley morphology on sediment transport. Sediment thickness is seen to be uniform among sandbar willows and highly variable within tamarisk groves. These reach-scale patterns of sedimentation observed in the lidar differencing likely reflect complex interactions of vegetation, flow, and sediment at the scale of patches to individual plants.
A sediment particle traversing the fluvial system may spend the majority of the total transit time at rest, stored in various sedimentary deposits. Floodplains are among the most important of these deposits, with the potential to store large amounts of sediment for long periods of time. The virtual velocity of a sediment grain depends strongly on the amount of time spent in storage, but little is known about sediment storage times. Measurements of floodplain vegetation age have suggested that storage times are exponentially distributed, a case that arises when all the sediment on a floodplain is equally vulnerable to erosion in a given interval. This assumption has been incorporated into sediment routing models, despite some evidence that younger sediment is more likely to be eroded from floodplains than older sediment. We investigate the relationship between sediment age and erosion, which we term the “erosion hazard,” with a model of a meandering river that constructs its floodplain by lateral accretion. We find that the erosion hazard decreases with sediment age, leading to a storage time distribution that is not exponential. We propose an alternate model that requires that channel motion is approximately diffusive and results in a heavy tailed distribution of storage time. The model applies to timescales over which the direction of channel motion is uncorrelated. We speculate that the lower end of this range of time is set by the meander cutoff timescale and the upper end is set by processes that limit the width of the meander belt.
No abstract is available for this article.
Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m 2 /yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m 2 /yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.
Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km 2 ) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km 2 ). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.
Human activities are rapidly increasing the global supply of reactive N and substantially altering the structure and hydrologic connectivity of managed ecosystems. There is long-standing recognition that N must be removed along hydrologic flowpaths from uplands to streams, yet it has proven difficult to assess the generality of this removal across ecosystem types, and whether these patterns are influenced by land-use change. To assess how well upland nitrate (NO 3 - ) loss is reflected in stream export, we gathered information from >50 watershed biogeochemical studies that reported nitrate concentrations ([NO 3 - ]) for stream water and for either upslope soil solution or groundwater NO 3 - to examine whether stream export of NO3- accurately reflects upland NO 3 - losses. In this dataset, soil solution and streamwater [NO 3 - ] were correlated across 40 undisturbed forest watersheds, with streamwater [NO 3 - ] typically half (median = 50%) soil solution [NO 3 - ]. A similar relationship was seen in 10 disturbed forest watersheds. However, for 12 watersheds with significant agricultural or urban development, the intercept and slope were both significantly higher than the relationship seen in forest watersheds. Differences in concentration between soil solution or groundwater and stream water may be attributed to biological uptake, microbial processes including denitrification, and/or preferential flow routing. The results of this synthesis are consistent with the hypotheses that undisturbed watersheds have a significant capacity to remove nitrate after it passes below the rooting zone and that land use changes tend to alter the efficiency or the length of watershed flowpaths, leading to reductions in nitrate removal and increased stream nitrate concentrations.
Boreal ecosystems store significant quantities of organic carbon (C) that may be vulnerable to degradation as a result of a warming climate. Despite their limited coverage on the landscape, streams play a significant role in the processing, gaseous emission, and downstream export of C, and small streams are thought to be particularly important because of their close connection with the surrounding landscape. However, ecosystem carbon studies do not commonly incorporate the role of the aquatic conduit. We measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations and emissions in a headwater stream network of interior Alaska underlain by permafrost to assess the potential role of stream gas emissions in the regional carbon balance. First-order streams exhibited the greatest variability in fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4, and the greatest mean p CO 2 . High-resolution time series of stream p CO 2 and discharge at two locations on one first-order stream showed opposing p CO 2 responses to storm events, indicating the importance of hydrologic flowpaths connecting CO 2 -rich soils with surface waters. Repeated longitudinal surveys on the stream showed consistent areas of elevated p CO 2 and p CH 4 , indicative of discrete hydrologic flowpaths delivering soil water and groundwater having varying chemistry. Up-scaled basin estimates of stream gas emissions suggest that streams may contribute significantly to catchment-wide CH 4 emissions. Overall, our results indicate that while stream-specific gas emission rates are disproportionately high relative to the terrestrial landscape, both stream surface area and catchment normalized emission rates were lower than those documented for the Yukon River Basin as a whole. This may be due to limitations of C sources and/or C transport to surface waters.