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Results for “Climate of the Past”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Greater Horn of Africa↗
USGS2019

Persistence of intense, climate-driven runoff late in Mars history

Mars is dry today, but numerous precipitation-fed paleo-rivers are found across the planet’s surface. These rivers’ existence is a challenge to models of planetary climate evolution. We report results indicating that, for a given catchment area, rivers on Mars were wider than rivers on Earth today. We use the scale (width and wavelength) of Mars paleo-rivers as a proxy for past runoff production. Using multiple methods, we infer that intense runoff production of >(3–20) kg/m 2 per day persisted until <3 billion years (Ga) ago and probably <1 Ga ago, and was globally distributed. Therefore, the intense runoff production inferred from the results of the Mars Science Laboratory rover was not a short-lived or local anomaly. Rather, precipitation-fed runoff production was globally distributed, was intense, and persisted intermittently over >1 Ga. Our improved history of Mars’ river runoff places new constraints on the unknown mechanism that caused wet climates on Mars.

Science Advances↗
USGS2000

Stratigraphic and structural evolution of the Selenga Delta Accommodation Zone, Lake Baikal Rift, Siberia

Seismic reflection profiles from the Lake Baikal Rift reveal extensive details about the sediment thickness, structural geometry and history of extensional deformation and syn-rift sedimentation in this classic continental rift. The Selenga River is the largest single source of terrigenous input into Lake Baikal, and its large delta sits astride the major accommodation zone between the Central and South basins of the lake. Incorporating one of the world's largest lacustrine deltas, this depositional system is a classic example of the influence of rift basin structural segmentation on a major continental drainage. More than 3700 km of deep basin-scale multi-channel seismic reflection (MCS) data were acquired during the 1989 Russian and the 1992 Russian–American field programs. The seismic data image most of the sedimentary section, including pre-rift basement in several localities. The MCS data reveal that the broad bathymetric saddle between these two major half-graben basins is underlain by a complex of severely deformed basement blocks, and is not simply a consequence of long-term deltaic deposition. Maximum sediment thickness is estimated to be more than 9 km in some areas around the Selenga Delta. Detailed stratigraphic analyses of the Selenga area MCS data suggest that modes of deposition have shifted markedly during the history of the delta. The present mode of gravity- and mass-flow sedimentation that dominates the northern and southern parts of the modern delta, as well as the pronounced bathymetric relief in the area, are relatively recent developments in the history of the Lake Baikal Rift. Several episodes of major delta progradation, each extending far across the modern rift, can be documented in the MCS data. The stratigraphic framework defined by these prograding deltaic sequences can be used to constrain the structural as well as depositional evolution of this part of the Baikal Rift. An age model has been established for this stratigraphy, by tying the delta sequences to the site of the Baikal Drilling Project 1993 Drill Hole. Although the drill hole is only 100 m deep, and the base of the cores is only ∼670 ka in age, ages were extrapolated to deeper stratigraphic intervals using the Reflection-Seismic-Radiocarbon method of Cohen et al. (1993). The deep prograding delta sequences now observed in the MCS data probably formed in response to major fluctuations in sediment supply, rather than in response to shifts in lake level. This stratigraphic framework and age model suggest that the deep delta packages developed at intervals of approximately 400 ka and may have formed as a consequence of climate changes affiliated with the northern hemisphere glaciations. The stratigraphic analysis also suggests that the Selenga Basin and Syncline developed as a distinct depocentre only during the past ∼2–3 Ma.

Lake Baikal Rift↗
USGS2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Human activity drives establishment, but not invasion, of non-native plants on islands

Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence established and invasive plant richness using generalized linear models nested within piecewise structural equation models. Our results indicate that anthropogenic land use (i.e. human modification) is strongly associated with establishment but not invasion, that climate (maximum monthly temperature) is strongly associated with invasion but not establishment, and that habitat heterogeneity (represented by maximum elevation and island area) is strongly associated with both establishment and invasion. Island isolation explains native plant richness well, but is not associated with established and invasive plant richness, likely due to anthropogenic introductions. We conclude that anthropogenic land use on islands is likely to be a proxy for the number of introductions (i.e. propagule pressure), which is more important for establishment than invasion. Conversely, islands with more diverse habitats and favorable (warm) climate conditions are likely to contain more available niche space (i.e. ‘vacant niches’) which create opportunities for both establishment and invasion. By evaluating multiple stages of the invasion process, we differentiate between the biogeographic characteristics that influence plant establishment (which does not necessarily lead to ecological impacts) versus those that influence subsequent plant invasion (which does lead to negative impacts).

Ecography↗
USGS2014

Changing Arctic ecosystems: sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, and benefits for geese

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strives to inform resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. A key area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 30 years, leading to reductions in sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Saltwater tolerant plants are now thriving in these areas and this appears to be a positive outcome for geese in the Arctic. This finding is contrary to the deleterious effects that declining sea ice is having on habitats of ice-dependent animals, such as polar bear and walrus.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to historical climate variability and atmospheric CO2 in the United States

We use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, Version 4.1) and the land cover data set of the international geosphere-biosphere program to investigate how increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate variability during 1900-1994 affect the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous USA, and how carbon storage has been affected by land-use change. The estimates of TEM indicate that over the past 95 years a combination of increasing atmospheric CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability causes a 4.2% (4.3 Pg C) decrease in total carbon storage of potential vegetation in the conterminous US, with vegetation carbon decreasing by 7.2% (3.2 Pg C) and soil organic carbon decreasing by 1.9% (1.1 Pg C). Several dry periods including the 1930s and 1950s are responsible for the loss of carbon storage. Our factorial experiments indicate that precipitation variability alone decreases total carbon storage by 9.5%. Temperature variability alone does not significantly affect carbon storage. The effect of CO2 fertilization alone increases total carbon storage by 4.4%. The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability are not additive. Interactions among CO2, temperature and precipitation increase total carbon storage by 1.1%. Our study also shows substantial year-to-year variations in net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems due to climate variability. Since the 1960s, we estimate these terrestrial ecosystems have acted primarily as a sink of atmospheric CO2 as a result of wetter weather and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the 1980s, we estimate the natural terrestrial ecosystems, excluding cropland and urban areas, of the conterminous US have accumulated 78.2 Tg C yr-1 because of the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability. For the conterminous US, we estimate that the conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland and urban areas has caused a 18.2% (17.7 Pg C) reduction in total carbon storage from that estimated for potential vegetation. The carbon sink capacity of natural terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous US is about 69% of that estimated for potential vegetation.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗
USGS2011

Hydrological effects of the increased CO 2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

Increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO 2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO 2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO 2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO 2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO 2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO 2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

Mississippi River Basin↗
USGS2012

Changing Arctic ecosystems - measuring and forecasting the response of Alaska's terrestrial ecosystem to a warming climate

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades, leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at an unprecedented rate. The loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to higher rates of erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Warming temperatures also have advanced the overall phenology of the region, including earlier snowmelt, lake ice thaw, and plant growth. As a result, many migratory species now arrive in the Arctic several days earlier in spring than in the 1970s. Predicted warming trends for the future will continue to alter plant growth, ice thaw, and other basic landscape processes. These changes will undoubtedly result in different responses by wildlife (fish, birds, and mammals) and the food they rely upon (plants, invertebrates, and fish). However, the type of response by different wildlife populations and their habitats-either positively or negatively-remains largely unknown.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Greenhouse gas emissions from diverse Arctic Alaskan lakes are dominated by young carbon

Climate-sensitive Arctic lakes have been identified as conduits for ancient permafrost-carbon (C) emissions and as such accelerate warming. However, the environmental factors that control emission pathways and their sources are unclear; this complicates upscaling, forecasting and climate-impact-assessment efforts. Here we show that current whole-lake CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from widespread lakes in Arctic Alaska primarily originate from organic matter fixed within the past 3–4 millennia (modern to 3,300 ± 70 years before the present), and not from Pleistocene permafrost C. Furthermore, almost 100% of the annual diffusive C flux is emitted as CO 2 . Although the lakes mostly processed younger C (89 ± 3% of total C emissions), minor contributions from ancient C sources were two times greater in fine-textured versus coarse-textured Pleistocene sediments, which emphasizes the importance of the underlying geological substrate in current and future emissions. This spatially extensive survey considered the environmental and temporal variability necessary to monitor and forecast the fate of ancient permafrost C as Arctic warming progresses.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗
USGS2015

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time and temperature, we developed three state-transition models to project future changes in area for 60 ecotypes involving 243 potential transitions during three 30-year periods (ending 2040, 2070, 2100). The time model, assuming changes over the past 30 years continue at the same rate, projected a net change, or directional shift, of 6 % by 2100. The temperature model, using past rates of change relative to the past increase in regional mean annual air temperatures (1 °C/30 year), projected a net change of 17 % in response to expected warming of 2, 4, and 6 °C at the end of the three periods. A rate-adjusted temperature model, which adjusted transition rates (±50 %) based on assigned feedbacks associated with 23 biophysical drivers, estimated a net change of 13 %, with 33 ecotypes gaining and 23 ecotypes losing area. Major drivers included shrub and tree expansion, fire, succession, and thermokarst. Overall, projected changes will be modest over the next century even though climate warming increased transition rates up to 9 fold. The strength of this state-transition modeling is that it used a large dataset of past changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of likely future changes associated with numerous drivers affecting the full diversity of ecosystems across a broad region.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury

A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergone limited evaluation of how injury level and time since fire interact to influence model accuracy and predictor variable importance. Less severe injuries potentially serve as an indicator for vulnerability to additional stressors such as bark beetle attack or moisture stress. We used a collection of 164,293 individual tree records to examine post-fire tree mortality in eight western USA conifers: Abies concolor , A. grandis , Calocedrus decurrens , Larix occidentalis , Pinus contorta , P. lambertiana , P. ponderosa , and Pseudotsuga menziesii . We evaluated the importance of fire injury predictors on discriminating between surviving trees versus immediate and delayed post-fire mortality. We fit balanced random forest models for each species using cumulative tree mortality from 1–5-years post-fire. We compared these results to multi-class random forest models using first-year mortality, 2–5-year mortality, and survival 5-years post-fire as a response variable. Crown volume scorched, diameter at breast height, and relative bark char height, were used as predictor variables. The cumulative mortality models all predicted trees that died within 1-year of fire with high accuracy but failed to predict 2–5-year mortality. The multi-class models were an improvement but had lower accuracy for predicting 2–5-year mortality. Multi-class model accuracies ranged from 85–95% across all species for predicting 1-year post-fire mortality, 42–71% for predicting 2–5-year mortality, and 64–85% for predicting trees that lived past 5-years. Our study highlights the differences in tree species tolerance to fire injury and suggests that including second-order predictors such as beetle attack or climatic water stress before and after fire will be critical to improve accuracy and better understand the mechanisms and patterns of fire-caused tree death. Random forest models have potential for management applications such as post-fire harvesting and simulating future stand dynamics.

western United States↗
USGS2015

Global patterns and environmental controls of perchlorate and nitrate co-occurrence in arid and semi-arid environments

Natural perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) is of increasing interest due to its wide-spread occurrence on Earth and Mars, yet little information exists on the relative abundance of ClO 4 − compared to other major anions, its stability, or long-term variations in production that may impact the observed distributions. Our objectives were to evaluate the occurrence and fate of ClO 4 − in groundwater and soils/caliche in arid and semi-arid environments (southwestern United States, southern Africa, United Arab Emirates, China, Antarctica, and Chile) and the relationship of ClO 4 − to the more well-studied atmospherically deposited anions NO 3 − and Cl − as a means to understand the prevalent processes that affect the accumulation of these species over various time scales. ClO 4 − is globally distributed in soil and groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions on Earth at concentrations ranging from 10 −1 to 10 6 μg/kg. Generally, the ClO 4 − concentration in these regions increases with aridity index, but also depends on the duration of arid conditions. In many arid and semi-arid areas, NO 3 − and ClO 4 − co-occur at molar ratios (NO 3 − /ClO 4 − ) that vary between ∼10 4 and 10 5 . We hypothesize that atmospheric deposition ratios are largely preserved in hyper-arid areas that support little or no biological activity (e.g. plants or bacteria), but can be altered in areas with more active biological processes including N 2 fixation, N mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, and microbial ClO 4 − reduction, as indicated in part by NO 3 − isotope data. In contrast, much larger ranges of Cl − /ClO 4 − and Cl − /NO 3 − ratios indicate Cl − varies independently from both ClO 4 − and NO 3 − . The general lack of correlation between Cl − and ClO 4 − or NO 3 − implies that Cl − is not a good indicator of co-deposition and should be used with care when interpreting oxyanion cycling in arid systems. The Atacama Desert appears to be unique compared to all other terrestrial locations having a NO 3 − /ClO 4 − molar ratio ∼10 3 . The relative enrichment in ClO 4 − compared to Cl − or NO 3 − and unique isotopic composition of Atacama ClO 4 − may reflect either additional in-situ production mechanism(s) or higher relative atmospheric production rates in that specific region or in the geological past. Elevated concentrations of ClO 4 − reported on the surface of Mars, and its enrichment with respect to Cl − and NO 3 − , could reveal important clues regarding the climatic, hydrologic, and potentially biologic evolution of that planet. Given the highly conserved ratio of NO 3 − /ClO 4 − in non-biologically active areas on Earth, it may be possible to use alterations of this ratio as a biomarker on Mars and for interpreting major anion cycles and processes on both Mars and Earth, particularly with respect to the less-conserved NO 3 − pool terrestrially.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2026

Fifteen years of WRTDS for advancing water-quality science: A critical review of methodological developments and global applications

Contamination by nutrients, major ions, and metals poses a major threat to global water sustainability. Understanding how these pollutants vary across time and space requires long-term monitoring and robust statistical approaches. Traditional methods, however, often struggle to account for streamflow variability, seasonality, and nonlinear responses. Introduced in 2010, the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method offers a flexible, data-driven framework that generates both observed and flow-normalized estimates of concentration and load. Over the past 15 years, WRTDS has become a state-of-the-art tool for water-quality science and management, with applications spanning a wide range of hydrologic, climatic, and policy contexts─including major watersheds across North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Arctic. In this review of WRTDS, we document the method’s major advancements, examine its expanding geographic and thematic applications, and summarize its relevance to water-quality management programs and policies worldwide. We also discuss its performance relative to other regression and machine-learning approaches. Finally, we identify key priorities for future development to support the continued evolution of WRTDS as a trusted and practical tool for scientists and managers working to protect and sustain water resources.

Environmental Science and Technology↗
USGS2011

Spatial variations in focused exhumation along a continental-scale strike-slip fault: The Denali fault of the eastern Alaska Range

40Ar/39Ar, apatite fission-track, and apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronological techniques were used to determine the Neogene exhumation history of the topographically asymmetric eastern Alaska Range. Exhumation cooling ages range from ~33 Ma to ~18 Ma for 40Ar/39Ar biotite, ~18 Ma to ~6 Ma for K-feldspar minimum closure ages, and ~15 Ma to ~1 Ma for apatite fission-track ages, and apatite (U-Th)/He cooling ages range from ~4 Ma to ~1 Ma. There has been at least ~11 km of exhumation adjacent to the north side of Denali fault during the Neogene inferred from biotite 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology. Variations in exhumation history along and across the strike of the fault are influenced by both far-field effects and local structural irregularities. We infer deformation and rapid exhumation have been occurring in the eastern Alaska Range since at least ~22 Ma most likely related to the continued collision of the Yakutat microplate with the North American plate. The Nenana Mountain region is the late Pleistocene to Holocene (~past 1 Ma) primary locus of tectonically driven exhumation in the eastern Alaska Range, possibly related to variations in fault geometry. During the Pliocene, a marked increase in climatic instability and related global cooling is temporally correlated with an increase in exhumation rates in the eastern Alaska Range north of the Denali fault system.

Geosphere↗
USGS2004

Constraining the inferred paleohydrologic evolution of a deep unsaturated zone in the Amargosa Desert

Natural flow regimes in deep unsaturated zones of arid interfluvial environments are rarely in hydraulic equilibrium with near-surface boundary conditions imposed by present-day plant–soil–atmosphere dynamics. Nevertheless, assessments of water resources and contaminant transport require realistic estimates of gas, water, and solute fluxes under past, present, and projected conditions. Multimillennial transients that are captured in current hydraulic, chemical, and isotopic profiles can be interpreted to constrain alternative scenarios of paleohydrologic evolution following climatic and vegetational shifts from pluvial to arid conditions. However, interpreting profile data with numerical models presents formidable challenges in that boundary conditions must be prescribed throughout the entire Holocene, when we have at most a few decades of actual records. Models of profile development at the Amargosa Desert Research Site include substantial uncertainties from imperfectly known initial and boundary conditions when simulating flow and solute transport over millennial timescales. We show how multiple types of profile data, including matric potentials and porewater concentrations of Cl − , δD, δ 18 O, can be used in multiphase heat, flow, and transport models to expose and reduce uncertainty in paleohydrologic reconstructions. Results indicate that a dramatic shift in the near-surface water balance occurred approximately 16000 yr ago, but that transitions in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation were not necessarily synchronous. The timing of the hydraulic transition imparts the largest uncertainty to model-predicted contemporary fluxes. In contrast, the uncertainties associated with initial (late Pleistocene) conditions and boundary conditions during the Holocene impart only small uncertainties to model-predicted contemporaneous fluxes.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2012

Sound data management as a foundation for natural resources management and science

Effective decision making is closely related to the quality and completeness of available data and information. Data management helps to ensure data quality in any discipline and supports decision making. Managing data as a long-term scientific asset helps to ensure that data will be usable beyond the original intended application. Emerging issues in water-resources management and climate variability require the ability to analyze change in the conditions of natural resources over time. The availability of quality, well-managed, and documented data from the past and present helps support this requirement.

Fact Sheet↗