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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Introduction: Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana , respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Methods: We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km 2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. Results: While the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia , while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana . Discussion: By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Frontiers Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Novel ecological and climatic conditions drive rapid adaptation in invasive Florida Burmese pythons

Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genome‐wide adaptation on short ‘ecological’ timescales. Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behavior, and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic datasets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures have driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often‐overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Historical fire regimes and contemporary fire effects within sagebrush habitats of Gunnison Sage-grouse

The historical role of fire in sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) landscapes remains poorly understood, yet is important to inform management and conservation of obligate species such as the threatened Gunnison Sage-grouse (GUSG; Centrocercus minimus ). We reconstructed fire histories from tree-ring fire scars at sagebrush–forest ecotones (10 sites, 111 trees) to better understand the role of fire in sagebrush landscapes of the Upper Gunnison Basin (UGB), Colorado, and how fire may have changed following Euro-American settlement. We assessed likely influences of historical fire by surveying plant composition and structure at 100 sagebrush sites with and without recent (2001–2020) fires. Tree-ring fire scars revealed a history of repeated low-severity fire at sagebrush–forest ecotones until 1892, followed by over a century without fire. Between 1684 and 1892, the mean fire interval (MFI) among sites averaged 49.6 years (ranging from 18.2 to 119 years). Fire over this period occurred synchronously at two or more sites on average every 23.6 years, potentially indicative of spread between sites. Most (70%) of the historical fires burned in the early growing season, consistent with times of strong wind. Recent burns exhibited reductions in sagebrush cover (5% vs. 25% in unburned sites) and concomitant increases in herbaceous cover (55% vs. 40%). These differences declined over time but persisted for at least two decades. Burned sites were dominated by native perennial grasses, forbs, and resprouting shrub species. Historically, such openings may have served as seasonal GUSG habitat. Our results indicate that parts of the UGB sagebrush landscapes were characterized historically by frequent fire and dynamic vegetation mosaics that included open, grassy patches. These findings support the use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain this ecological process and vegetation heterogeneity. However, the contemporary context for fire has changed and now includes substantially reduced, Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed GUSG populations, increased risk of non-native plant invasion, and climate warming. These circumstances highlight new risks, information needs, and opportunities for key knowledge co-production via management–research partnerships.

Colorado↗

USGS2006

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2012

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2019

Endless forams: >34,000 modern planktonic foraminiferal images for taxonomic training and automated species recognition using convolutional neural networks

Accurate planktonic foraminiferal species identification is central to many paleoceanographic studies, from selecting specific species for geochemical research to elucidating the biotic dynamics of microfossil communities relevant to physical oceanographic processes and interconnected phenomena such as climate change. However, species identification varies among taxonomic schools, few resources exist to train students in the difficult task of discerning amongst closely related species, and the number of taxonomic experts is limited. Here, we take the first steps towards removing these rate-limiting steps by generating the first extensive image library of modern planktonic foraminifera, providing taxonomic training tools and resources, and automating species-level taxonomic identification of planktonic foraminifera via machine learning using convolution neural networks. Taxonomic experts identified 34,640 images of modern planktonic foraminifera to the species level. These images are served as species exemplars through the online portal Endless Forams (endlessforams.org) and a taxonomic training portal hosted on the citizen science platform Zooniverse (zooniverse.org/projects/ahsiang/endless-forams/). A supervised machine learning classifier was then trained with more than 24,000 images of planktonic foraminifera and tested using the remaining ~10,000 images (i.e., the validation set). The best classifier provided the correct species name for an image in the validation set 87.4% of the time. Together, these resources provide a rigorous set of training tools in modern planktonic foraminiferal taxonomy and a means of rapidly generating assemblage data via machine learning in future studies.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2021

The imminent calving retreat of Taku Glacier

Along the rugged Southeast Alaska coast, 30 kilometers northeast of the state capital Juneau, a tidewater glacier has largely defied global trends by steadily advancing for most of the past century while most glaciers on Earth retreated. This 55-kilometer-long and nearly 1,500-meter-thick tidewater glacier, named Taku Glacier, or T'aaḵú Ḵwáan Sít'i in the language of the Indigenous Tlingit people, has been the focus of continuous scientific study for more than 70 years. Some records even extend back to the mid-18th century. With this long observation record and the glacier’s year-round accessibility and proximity to Juneau and adjacent research facilities, Taku provides an unparalleled locale to study tidewater glaciers and their response to Earth’s rapidly changing climate.

Eos, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2010

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Circular↗

USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Understanding natural capital

This chapter serves to introduce the geophysics of Neotropical steeplands. Topics are covered in a general manner with hyperlinks to active research and monitoring sites (such as the National Hurricane Center and US Geological Survey publication). Topics covered include ‘tropical climate and weather,’ ‘climate variations and trends,’ Neotropical ‘geology, and soils,’ ‘hillslopes and erosion,’ ‘lakes and reservoirs,’ and ‘effects of land cover on water quality and quantity.’ Obviously, this is a lot of information to cover in a short chapter, hence the use of hyperlinks. The last theme ‘effects of land cover on water quality and quantity’ is covered by case studies, in all of which I have been centrally involved. These studies were chosen because they are among the few studies with sufficient data of high enough quality to reach definitive conclusions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Status and management of moose in the northeastern United States

Moose (Alces alces) populations have recolonized much of their historic range in the northeastern United States in the past 30 years, with their southern range edge extending to southern New England and northern New York. This southerly expansion occurred when certain other populations in the United States were in decline along the southern range edge, with climate change often cited as a probable cause. The areas that moose have recently occupied in the northeastern United States are some of the most densely human populated in moose range, which has raised concern about human safety and moose-vehicle collisions (MVC). We conducted a literature search about moose in the northeastern United States, and distributed a questionnaire and conducted phone interviews with regional biologists responsible for moose management to determine the status of moose, management activity, and research deficiencies and needs. Moose numbers appear stable throughout much of the region, with slow population growth in northern New York. Management activity ranges from regulated harvest of moose in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, to no active management in southern New England and New York. The combined annual harvest in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont is >3,000. MVCs are a widespread regional concern with >1,000 occurring annually involving several human fatalities. Research should address impacts of parasitism by winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) and brain-worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) on productivity and mortality of moose, influence of climate change on population dynamics and range, and conflicts in areas with high human population density.

Alces↗

USGS2021

Water priorities for the Nation—USGS Integrated Water Science basins

The United States faces growing challenges to its water supply, infrastructure, and aquatic ecosystems because of population growth, climate change, floods, and droughts. To help address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Mission Area is integrating recent advances in monitoring, research, and modeling to improve assessments of water availability throughout the United States. A key part of this effort is the intensive study of 10 Integrated Water Science (IWS) basins across the Nation between 2019 and 2028. The goal is to study 10 IWS basins that are representative of large geographic regions across the United States and that encompass a variety of potential threats to the amount and quality of water across the Nation. Lessons learned from these smaller IWS basins (10,000–20,000 square miles in size) about the interactions among climate, human effects, surface water, groundwater, water quality, and water supply and demand will be used to help quantify and forecast water availability in the larger regions and ultimately the Nation.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2024

Characterization of the water resources of the Pamunkey River watershed in Virginia—A review of water science, management, and traditional ecological knowledge

In central Virginia, the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing increasingly complex water resource issues related to quantity and quality. Documentation of surface-water, groundwater, water quality, land subsidence, sea-level rise, and river ecology issues in the Pamunkey River watershed and incorporation of traditional ecological knowledge into these research topics may improve understanding of the water resources broadly. This report summarizes the relevant traditional ecological knowledge and scientific literature to elucidate gaps in the total combined knowledge of a suite of water science topics concerning the Pamunkey River watershed. This suite of water science topics includes some of the issues that the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing within the watershed: fragmentation of streams and management of streamflow, flooding, degrading water quality, groundwater extraction, relative sea-level rise, rapid changes in ecosystems, loss of ecological and biological diversity, and climate change. Gaps in total combined knowledge are pervasive throughout each of these water resource topics. Identifying these knowledge gaps can help inform future research and management strategies.

Virginia↗

USGS2022

Range-wide persistence of the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus) for 20+ years following a prolonged drought

Prolonged drought due to climate change has negatively impacted amphibians in southern California, U.S.A. Due to the severity and length of the current drought, agencies and researchers had growing concern for the persistence of the arroyo toad ( Anaxyrus californicus ), an endangered endemic amphibian in this region. Range-wide surveys for this species had not been conducted for at least 20 years. In 2017–2020, we conducted collaborative surveys for arroyo toads at historical locations. We surveyed 88 of the 115 total sites having historical records and confirmed that the arroyo toad is currently extant in at least 61 of 88 sites and 20 of 25 historically occupied watersheds. We did not detect toads at almost a third of the surveyed sites but did detect toads at 18 of 19 specific sites delineated in the 1999 Recovery Plan to meet one of four downlisting criteria. Arroyo toads are estimated to live 7–8 years, making populations susceptible to prolonged drought. Drought is estimated to increase in frequency and duration with climate change. Mitigation strategies for drought impacts, invasive aquatic species, altered flow regimes, and other anthropogenic effects could be the most beneficial strategies for toad conservation and may also provide simultaneous benefits to several other native species that share the same habitat.

California↗

USGS2024

Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: Reflections from initial efforts

There are increasing calls to incorporate indigenous knowledge (IK) into climate adaptation planning (CAP) and related projects. However, given unique attributes of IK and the positionality of tribal communities to scientific research, several considerations are important to ensure CAP efforts with IK are ethical and effective. While such topics have been thoroughly explored conceptually, incorporation of IK into CAP is a nascent field only beginning to report findings and improve science production and delivery. Based on recent work with Ute Mountain Ute (UMU) resource managers and knowledge holders, we reflect on key considerations for incorporating IK into CAP: the importance of sustained and multi-level tribal engagement, operational approaches to IK incorporation, cross-cultural challenges with risk-based approaches, and how CAP can support existing tribal priorities. We hope exploring these considerations can help set appropriate expectations, promote ethical interactions, and increase the effectiveness of tribal CAP and related efforts.

Frontiers in Climate↗

USGS2013

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2018

When portfolio theory can help environmental investment planning to reduce climate risk to future environmental outcomes - and when it cannot

Variability among climate change scenarios produces great uncertainty in what is the best allocation of resources among investments to protect environmental goods in the future. Previous research shows Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can help optimize environmental investment targeting to reduce outcome risk with minimal loss of expected level of environmental benefits, but no work has yet identified the types of cases for which MPT is most useful. This paper assembles data on 26 different conservation cases in three distinct ecological settings and develops new metrics to evaluate how well MPT can reduce uncertainty in future outcomes of a set of environmental investments. We find MPT is broadly but not universally useful and works best when multiple investments have negatively correlated outcomes across climate scenarios, a second-best investment has expected value almost as good as the value in the best investment; or multiple investments have little uncertainty in ecological outcomes.

Conservation Letters↗