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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2013

The biogeographic histories of Pinus edulis and Pinus monophylla over the last 50,000 years

Well-preserved pine needles found in fossil packrat middens document the biogeographic responses of pinyon pines to changing climates over the last 50,000 years. During the full glacial Wisconsinan (MIS2), Pinus monophylla (single-needle pinyon), Pinus edulis (Colorado pinyon), and P. edulis var. fallax (Arizona singleleaf pinyon) all grew along the southern portions of their current ranges. P. monophylla extended from the southern Sierra Nevada across the Mojave Desert to northwestern Arizona. P. edulis grew from northwestern Arizona across central Arizona to New Mexico and south to westernmost Texas. P. edulis var. fallax grew throughout what is now the Sonoran Desert of southern Arizona. Application of the modern climate requirements for these species suggest that winter precipitation at this time was at least 150% of modern, but also that summer precipitation may have been somewhat greater than today, at least at the northernmost end of the Gulf of California. During the Bølling and Allerød intervals P. edulis and P. edulis var. fallax quickly expanded northward over the Mogollon Rim of central Arizona into the Little Colorado River basin and northwestern Arizona. This northerly expansion of the fallax variety during the Allerød interval suggests that temperatures were warmer than most of the latest Wisconsinan and that summer precipitation was at least 120% of modern. After the rapid warming at the start of the Holocene (11.7 ka), P. monophylla and P. edulis populations were reduced in extent as their retreating southerly stands were not immediately replaced by expansion into cooler regions. These populations slowly expanded 300–500 km northward at rates between 20 and 60 m y −1 , reaching some of their current northern limits only within the last millennium. Increases in temperature expected over the next several hundred years will result in a similar reduction in populations unless this warming is ameliorated by favorable increases in precipitation. The consistent needle anatomy and distributions of the three types relative to each other suggest that there has been little evolutionary change discernible from these needles over at least the last 25,000 years.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2020

Sediment connectivity: A framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways

Connectivity provides a framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways, building on conceptual advances in graph theory from other scientific disciplines. Connectivity schematizes sediment pathways as a directed graph (i.e., a set of nodes and links). This study presents a novel application of graph theory and connectivity metrics like modularity and centrality to coastal sediment dynamics, exemplified here using Ameland Inlet in the Netherlands. We divide the study site into geomorphic cells (i.e., nodes) and then quantify sediment transport between these cells (i.e., links) using a numerical model. The system of cells and fluxes between them is then schematized in a network described by an adjacency matrix. Network metrics like link density, asymmetry, and modularity quantify system‐wide connectivity. The degree, strength, and centrality of individual nodes identify key locations and pathways throughout the system. For instance, these metrics indicate that under strictly tidal forcing, sand originating near shore predominantly bypasses Ameland Inlet via the inlet channels, whereas sand on the deeper foreshore mainly bypasses the inlet via the outer delta shoals. Connectivity analysis can also inform practical management decisions about where to place sand nourishments, the fate of nourishment sand, or how to monitor locations vulnerable to perturbations. There are still open challenges associated with quantifying connectivity at varying space and time scales and the development of connectivity metrics specific to coastal systems. Nonetheless, connectivity provides a promising technique for predicting the response of our coasts to climate change and the human adaptations it provokes.

Ameland Inlet↗

USGS2021

The imminent calving retreat of Taku Glacier

Along the rugged Southeast Alaska coast, 30 kilometers northeast of the state capital Juneau, a tidewater glacier has largely defied global trends by steadily advancing for most of the past century while most glaciers on Earth retreated. This 55-kilometer-long and nearly 1,500-meter-thick tidewater glacier, named Taku Glacier, or T'aaḵú Ḵwáan Sít'i in the language of the Indigenous Tlingit people, has been the focus of continuous scientific study for more than 70 years. Some records even extend back to the mid-18th century. With this long observation record and the glacier’s year-round accessibility and proximity to Juneau and adjacent research facilities, Taku provides an unparalleled locale to study tidewater glaciers and their response to Earth’s rapidly changing climate.

Eos, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2024

Toward a US framework for continuity of satellite observations of Earth's climate and for supporting societal resilience

There is growing urgency for improved public and commercial services to support a resilient, secure, and thriving United States (US) in the face of mounting decision-support needs for environmental stewardship and hazard response, as well as for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Sustained space-based Earth observations are critical infrastructure to support the delivery of science and decision-support information with local, national, and global utility. This is reflected in part through the United States' sustained support of a suite of weather and land-imaging satellites. However, outside of these two areas, the US lacks an overarching, systematic plan or framework to identify, prioritize, fund, and implement sustained space-based Earth observations to meet the Nation's full range of needs for science, government policy, and societal support. To aid and accelerate the discussion on our nation's needs, challenges and opportunities associated with sustained critical space-based Earth observations, the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) sponsored a multi-week think-tank study to offer ways forward. Based on this study, the KISS study team suggests the establishment of a robust coordination framework to help address US needs for sustained Earth observations. This coordination framework could account for: (a) approaches to identify and prioritize satellite observations needed to meet US needs for science and services, (b) the rapidly evolving landscape of space-based Earth viewing architecture options and technology improvements with increasing opportunities and lower cost access to space, and (c) the technical and programmatic underpinnings required for proper and comprehensive data stewardship to support a wide range of research and public services.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2022

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as ‘dryland mechanisms’. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2015

Predicting Brook Trout occurrence in stream reaches throughout their native range in the eastern United States

The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (&sim;0.78) and Cohen's kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

USGS2013

Snow effects on alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the relationships between snow and vegetation is important for interpretation of the responses of alpine ecosystems to climate changes. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is regarded as an ideal area due to its undisturbed features with low population and relatively high snow cover. We used 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets during 2001–2010 to examine the snow–vegetation relationships, specifically, (1) the influence of snow melting date on vegetation green-up date and (2) the effects of snow cover duration on vegetation greenness. The results showed that the alpine vegetation responded strongly to snow phenology (i.e., snow melting date and snow cover duration) over large areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Snow melting date and vegetation green-up date were significantly correlated (p < 0.1) in 39.9% of meadow areas (accounting for 26.2% of vegetated areas) and 36.7% of steppe areas (28.1% of vegetated areas). Vegetation growth was influenced by different seasonal snow cover durations (SCDs) in different regions. Generally, the December–February and March–May SCDs played a significantly role in vegetation growth, both positively and negatively, depending on different water source regions. Snow's positive impact on vegetation was larger than the negative impact.

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau↗

USGS2000

A 22,000-year record of monsoonal precipitation from northern Chile's Atacama Desert

Fossil rodent middens and wetland deposits from the central Atacama Desert (22° to 24°S) indicate increasing summer precipitation, grass cover, and groundwater levels from 16.2 to 10.5 calendar kiloyears before present (ky B.P.). Higher elevation shrubs and summer-flowering grasses expanded downslope across what is now the edge of Absolute Desert, a broad expanse now largely devoid of rainfall and vegetation. Paradoxically, this pluvial period coincided with the summer insolation minimum and reduced adiabatic heating over the central Andes. Summer precipitation over the central Andes and central Atacama may depend on remote teleconnections between seasonal insolation forcing in both hemispheres, the Asian monsoon, and Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. A less pronounced episode of higher groundwater levels in the central Atacama from 8 to 3 ky B.P. conflicts with an extreme lowstand of Lake Titicaca, indicating either different climatic forcing or different response times and sensitivities to climatic change.

Science↗

USGS2008

Multistage late Cenozoic evolution of the Amargosa River drainage, southwestern Nevada and eastern California Society of America. All rights reserved

Stratigraphic and geomorphic analyses reveal that the regional drainage basin of the modern Amargosa River formed via multistage linkage of formerly isolated basins in a diachronous series of integration events between late Miocene and latest Pleistocene-Holocene time. The 275-km-long Amargosa River system drains generally southward across a large (15,540 km<sup> 2</sup> ) watershed in southwestern Nevada and eastern California to its terminus in central Death Valley. This drainage basin is divided into four major subbasins along the main channel and several minor subbasins on tributaries; these subbasins contain features, including central valley lowlands surrounded by highlands that form external divides or internal paleodivides, which suggest relict individual physiographic-hydrologic basins. From north to south, the main subbasins along the main channel are: (1) an upper headwaters subbasin, which is deeply incised into mostly Tertiary sediments and volcanic rocks; (2) an unincised low-gradient section within the Amargosa Desert; (3) a mostly incised section centered on Tecopa Valley and tributary drainages; and (4) a west- to northwest-oriented mostly aggrading lower section along the axis of southern Death Valley. Adjoining subbasins are hydro-logically linked by interconnecting narrows or canyon reaches that are variably incised into formerly continuous paleodivides. The most important linkages along the main channel include: (1) the Beatty narrows, which developed across a Tertiary bedrock paleodivide between the upper and Amargosa Desert subbasins during a latest Miocene-early Pliocene to middle Pleistocene interval (ca. 4-0.5 Ma); (2) the Eagle Mountain narrows, which cut into a mostly alluvial paleodivide between the Amar-gosa Desert and Tecopa subbasins in middle to late Pleistocene (ca. 150-100 ka) time; and (3) the Amargosa Canyon, which formed in late middle Pleistocene (ca. 200140 ka) time through a breached, actively uplifting paleodivide between the Tecopa and southern Death Valley subbasins. Collectively, the interconnecting reaches represent discrete integration events that incrementally produced the modern drainage basin starting near Beatty sometime after 4 Ma and ending in the Salt Creek tributary in the latest Pleistocene to Holocene (post-30 ka). Potential mechanisms for drainage integration across paleodivides include basin overtopping from sedimentary infilling above paleodivide elevations, paleolake spillover, groundwater sapping, and (or) headward erosion of dissecting channels in lower-altitude subbasins. These processes are complexly influenced by fluvial responses to factors such as climatic change, local base-level differences across divides, and (or) tectonic activity (the latter only recognized in Amargosa Canyon). ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2017

USA National Phenology Network gridded products documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network ( USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to facilitate informed ecosystem stewardship and management by providing phenological information freely and openly. One way the USA-NPN is endeavoring to accomplish these goals is by providing data and data products in a wide range of formats, including gridded real-time, short-term forecasted, and historical maps of phenological events, patterns and trends. This document describes the suite of gridded phenologically relevant data products produced and provided by the USA National Phenology Network, which can be accessed at www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps and also through web services at geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/wms?request=GetCapabilities .

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V ) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1994

South Cascade Glacier, Washington; hydrologic and meteorological data, 1957-67

Historic hydrologic and meteorological data are compiled for South Cascade Glacier, Washington, USA, a site selected by the U.S. Geological Survey for long-term study of the response of a glacier to climate change and its effect on water resources. The data consist of stream discharge and meteorological data, including precipitation, air temperature, and instantaneous weather observations, all at various locations in the glacier basin. Data span the years 1957-67 and are presented in tables, with annual time-series graphs shown for most data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Assessing tidal marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise in the Skagit Delta

Historical aerial photographs, from 1937 to the present, show Skagit Delta tidal marshes prograding into Skagit Bay for most of the record, but the progradation rates have been steadily declining and the marshes have begun to erode in recent decades despite the large suspended sediment load provided by the Skagit River. In an area of the delta isolated from direct riverine sediment supply by anthropogenic blockage of historical distributaries, 0.5-m tall marsh cliffs along with concave marsh profiles indicate wave erosion is contributing to marsh retreat. This is further supported by a “natural experiment” provided by rocky outcrops that shelter high marsh in their lee, while being bounded by 0.5-m lower eroded marsh to windward and on either side. Coastal wetlands with high sediment supply are thought to be resilient to sea level rise, but the case of the Skagit Delta shows this is not necessarily true. A combination of sea level rise and wave-generated erosion may overwhelm sediment supply. Additionally, anthropogenic obstruction of historical distributaries and levee construction along the remaining distributaries likely increase the jet momentum of river discharge, forcing much suspended sediment to bypass the tidal marshes and be exported from Skagit Bay. Adaptive response to the threat of climate change related sea level rise and increased wave frequency or intensity should consider the efficacy of restoring historical distributaries and managed retreat of constrictive river levees to maximize sediment delivery to delta marshes.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: Interactions between fire and thermokarst

To determine the influence of fire and thermokarst in a boreal landscape, we investigated peat cores within and adjacent to a permafrost collapse feature on the Tanana River Floodplain of Interior Alaska. Radioisotope dating, diatom assemblages, plant macrofossils, charcoal fragments, and carbon and nitrogen content of the peat profile indicate ???600 years of vegetation succession with a transition from a terrestrial forest to a sedge-dominated wetland over 100 years ago, and to a Sphagnum-dominated peatland in approximately 1970. The shift from sedge to Sphagnum, and a decrease in the detrended tree-ring width index of black spruce trees adjacent to the collapse coincided with an increase in the growing season temperature record from Fairbanks. This concurrent wetland succession and reduced growth of black spruce trees indicates a step-wise ecosystem-level response to a change in regional climate. In 2001, fire was observed coincident with permafrost collapse and resulted in lateral expansion of the peatland. These observations and the peat profile suggest that future warming and/or increased fire disturbance could promote permafrost degradation, peatland expansion, and increase carbon storage across this landscape; however, the development of drought conditions could reduce the success of both black spruce and Sphagnum, and potentially decrease the long-term ecosystem carbon storage.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2025

Automated snow cover detection on mountain glaciers usingspaceborne imagery and machine learning

Tracking the extent of seasonal snow on glaciers over time is critical for assessing glacier vulnerability and the response of glacierized watersheds to climate change. Existing snow cover products do not reliably distinguish seasonal snow from glacier ice and firn, preventing their use for glacier snow cover detection. Despite previous efforts to classify glacier surface facies using machine learning on local scales, currently there is no published comparison of machine learning models for classifying glacier snow cover across different satellite image products. We present an automated snow detection workflow for mountain glaciers using supervised machine-learning-based image classifiers and Landsat 8 and 9, Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope satellite imagery. We develop the image classifiers by testing numerous machine learning algorithms with training and validation data from the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glacier Project glaciers. The workflow produces daily to twice monthly time series of several glacier mass balance and snowmelt indicators (snow-covered area, accumulation area ratio, and seasonal snow line) from 2013 to present. Workflow performance is assessed by comparing automatically classified images and snow lines to manual interpretations at each glacier site. The image classifiers exhibit overall accuracies of 92%–98%, K scores of 84%–96%, and F scores of 93%–98% for all image products. The median difference between automatically and manually delineated median snow line altitudes is 31m (IQR of 73to0m)across all image products. The Sentinel-2 classifier (support vector machine) produces the most accurate glacier mass balance and snowmelt indicators and distinguishes snow from ice and f irn the most reliably. Although they are less accurate, the Landsat- and PlanetScope-derived estimates greatly enhance the temporal coverage of observations. The transient accumulation area ratio produces the least noisy time series, making it the most reliable indicator for characterizing seasonal snow trends. The temporally detailed accumulation area ratio time series reveal that the timing of minimum snow cover conditions varies by up to a month between Arctic (63°N) and midlatitude (48°N) sites, underscoring the potential for bias when estimating glacier minimum snow cover conditions from a single late-summer image. Widespread application of our automated snow detection workflow has the potential to improve regional assessments of glacier mass balance, land ice representations within Earth system models, water resources, and the impacts of climate change on snow cover across broad spatial scales.

The Cryosphere↗

USGS2004

Lake level variability in Silver Lake, Michigan: a response to fluctuations in lake levels of Lake Michigan

Sediment from Silver Lake, Michigan, can be used to constrain the timing and elevation of Lake Michigan during the Nipissing transgression. Silver Lake is separated from Lake Michigan by a barrier/dune complex and the Nipissing, Calumet, and Glenwood shorelines of Lake Michigan are expressed landward of this barrier. Two Vibracores were taken from the lake in February 2000 and contain pebbly sand, sand, buried soils, marl, peat, and sandy muck. It is suggested here that fluctuations in the level of Lake Michigan are reflected in Silver Lake since the Chippewa low phase, and possibly at the end of the Algonquin phase. An age of 12,490 B.P. (10,460±50 14 C yrs B.P.) on wood from a buried Entisol may record the falling Algonquin phase as the North Bay outlet opened. A local perched water table is indicated by marl deposited before 7,800 B.P. and peat between 7,760-7,000 B.P. when Lake Michigan was at the low elevation Chippewa phase. Continued deepening of the lake is recorded by the transition from peat to sandy muck at 7,000 B.P. in the deeper core, and with the drowning of an Inceptisol nearly 3 m higher at 6,410 B.P. in the shallower core. A rising groundwater table responding to a rising Lake Michigan base level during the Nipissing transgression, rather than a response to mid-Holocene climate change, explains deepening of Silver Lake. Sandy muck was deposited continually in Silver Lake between Nipissing and modern time. Sand lenses within the muck are presumed to be eolian in origin, derived from sand dunes advancing into the lake on the western side of the basin.

Michigan↗

USGS2022

Integrating climate considerations into grazing management programs in national parks

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing livestock grazing in nearly 100 parks, and several park grazing management planning efforts are currently underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management practices to be responsive and adaptive to future climate change. As a step toward developing a process to address this need, this project worked with Dinosaur National Monument to consider climate change in its grazing management planning process. In this project, we convened researchers, managers, subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists through a participatory climate change scenario planning workshop to develop and apply a small set of challenging, plausible, relevant, and divergent scenarios that qualitatively assessed how grazing resources and management may be affected under climate change.

Final Project Report↗