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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Point sources and agricultural practices control spatial-temporal patterns of orthophosphate in tributaries to Chesapeake Bay

Orthophosphate (PO 4 ) is the most bioavailable form of phosphorus (P). Excess PO 4 may cause harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems. A major restoration effort is underway for Chesapeake Bay (CB) to reduce P, nitrogen, and sediment loading to CB. Although PO 4 cycling and delivery to streams has been characterized in small-scale studies, regional drivers of PO 4 patterns remain poorly understood because most water quality trend assessment focus on total P. Moreover, these trend assessments are usually at an annual timestep. To address this research gap, we analyzed PO 4 patterns over a 9-year period at 53 monitoring stations across the CB watershed to: 1) characterize the role of PO 4 in total P fluxes and trends; 2) describe spatial and temporal patterns of PO 4 concentrations across seasons and streamflow ; and 3) explore factors explaining these patterns. Agricultural watersheds exported the most total P compared with watersheds under different land uses (e.g., urban or forest), with PO 4 comprising up to 50% of those exports. Although PO 4 exports are declining at many sites, some agricultural regions are experiencing increasing trends at a rate sufficient to drive total P trends. Regression modeling results suggest that point source load reductions are likely responsible for decreasing PO 4 concentrations observed at many sites. Watersheds with more Conservation Reserve Program enrollment had lower summer PO 4 concentrations, highlighting the effectiveness of this practice. Manure inputs strongly predicted PO 4 concentrations at high flows across all seasons. Both manure applications and conservation tillage were correlated with changes in PO 4 concentrations at high flow, suggesting these activities could contribute to increasing PO 4 concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of point source control for reducing PO 4 exports and underscores the need for management strategies to target sources, practices, and landscape factors determining PO 4 loss from soils where manure inputs remain high.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2019

Regional patterns of anthropogenic influences on streams and rivers in the conterminous United States, from the early 1970s to 2012

This paper introduces a dataset containing consistent time-series measurements of anthropogenic activities potentially affecting stream quality across the conterminous United States and summarizes the most noteworthy trends from 61 variables in 16 categories. Data include measures of atmospheric deposition, agricultural production, livestock, urbanization, irrigation, land use, nutrients from fertilizer, dams/reservoirs, and pesticide use, among others. The trend periods range from 10 to 40 years, beginning as early as 1970 and ending in 2012. Detailed summaries are provided for 1992-2012. Key results include: increase of urbanization and ‘exurbanization’, particularly in the South, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic; increases in crop production and fertilizer use in much of the Midwest; increases in the concentration of livestock, particularly of hogs and pigs; increases in irrigation, dams, and reservoirs in the Lower Mississippi and Lower Missouri watersheds, widespread increase in the use of the pesticide glyphosate; and widespread decrease in atmospheric deposition of sulfate. These results and others provide a framework for evaluating potential causes of water-quality changes over the past four decades.

Journal of Land Use Science↗

USGS2019

Phylogeny and foraging mode correspond with thiaminase activity in freshwater fishes: Potential links to environmental factors

Knowledge of the dietary components of fish species is important for understanding their growth, survival, and recruitment. Deficiency in thiamine (vitamin B1) leading to reproductive failure and physiological illness among freshwater fishes has been attributed to thiaminase activity in fish in the Great Lakes and the New York Finger Lakes, but the causes of variation in thiaminase activity among freshwater fishes is unclear. We characterized thiaminase activity in 29 species of freshwater fishes across 7 ray-finned and 1 jawless family. All fish were further categorized by phylogeny, trophic category (trophic level and feeding mode), and native or non-native status to evaluate how ecological processes correspond with thiaminase activity. Thiaminase activity varied significantly across species, families, trophic factors, phylogenetic groups, and sites. Teleosts that were more recently derived had higher thiaminase activity than more basal species. Thiaminase activity was also higher among herbivores than omnivores or carnivores. This trend was clearest in the Cyprinidae family, which had the greatest range in thiaminase activity and a wide range in trophic-level position and trophic categories (herbivores, omnivores, and carnivores). Variation in average thiaminase activity of Spotfin Shiners (Cyprinella spiloptera) among sites within a watershed was correlated with anthropogenic and natural components of land cover. Our study contributes much-needed quantitative ecological information related to thiaminase activity in a suite of fish species that vary in evolutionary history, trophic level, and foraging modes. However, more studies are needed to identify interacting causes of thiaminase variation and examine the implications of these findings on the overall health of aquatic populations and freshwater ecosystems.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2007

Holocene climates and connections between the San Francisco Bay Estuary and its watershed: A review

Climate over the watershed of the San Francisco Bay Delta estuary system varies on a wide range of space and time scales, and affects downstream estuarine ecosystems. The historical climate has included mild to severe droughts and torrential rains accompanied by flooding, providing important lessons for present-day resource managers. Paleoclimate records spanning the last 10,000 years, synthesized across the Estuary, watershed and key regions beyond, provide a basis for increased understanding of how variable California’s climate can be and how it affects the Bay Delta system. This review of paleoclimate records reveals a gradual warming and drying in California from about 10,000 years to about 4,000 years before present. During this period, the current Bay and Delta were inundated by rising sea level so that by 4,000 years ago the Bay and Delta had taken on much of their present shape and extent. Between about 4,000 and 2,000 years ago, cooler and wetter conditions prevailed in the watershed, lowering salinity in the Estuary and altering local ecosystems. Those wetter conditions gave way to increasing aridity during the past 2,000 years, a general trend punctuated by occasional prolonged and severe droughts and occasional unusually wet, cool periods. California’s climate since A.D. 1850 has been unusually stable and benign, compared to climate variations during the previous 2,000 or more years. Thus, climate variations in California’s future may be even more (perhaps much more) challenging than those of the past 100 years. To improve our understanding of these past examples of climate variability in California, and of the linkages between watershed climate and estuarine responses, greater emphases on paleoclimate records in and around the Estuary, improved temporal resolutions in several record types, and linked watershed-estuary paleo-modeling capabilities are needed.

California↗

USGS2003

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program

In 2002, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a program to enhance the acquisition, preservation, and use of remotely sensed data for USGS science programs, as well as for those of cooperators and customers. Remotely sensed data are fundamental tools for studying the Earth's land surface, including coastal and near-shore environments. For many decades, the USGS has been a leader in providing remotely sensed data to the national and international communities. Acting on its historical topographic mapping mission, the USGS has archived and distributed aerial photographs of the United States for more than half a century. Since 1972, the USGS has acquired, processed, archived, and distributed Landsat and other satellite and airborne remotely sensed data products to users worldwide. Today, the USGS operates and manages the Landsats 5 and 7 missions and cooperates with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to define and implement future satellite missions that will continue and expand the collection of moderate-resolution remotely sensed data. In addition to being a provider of remotely sensed data, the USGS is a user of these data and related remote sensing technology. These data are used in natural resource evaluations for energy and minerals, coastal environmental surveys, assessments of natural hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides), biological surveys and investigations, water resources status and trends analyses and studies, and geographic and cartographic applications, such as wildfire detection and tracking and as a source of information for The National Map. The program furthers these distinct but related roles by leading the USGS activities in providing remotely sensed data while advancing applications of such data for USGS programs and a wider user community.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2011

Interdisciplinary environmental project probes Chesapeake Bay down to the core

Interrelated environmental concerns about Chesapeake Bay are being addressed in an interdisciplinary project using paleoecological and geochemical records from sediment cores to investigate Holocene climate and human encroachment. The research is looking at interannual through millennial-scale variability of bay salinity, sediment accumulation, and dissolved oxygen, temperature, and faunal and floral trends. Current and planned research is expected to result in better restoration strategies by improving our understanding of the linkages between the bay's ecosystem, climate, and land use. Chesapeake Bay, the United States' largest and most productive estuary, faces several complex environmental issues, including eutrophication and anoxia in the main channel and tributaries, high turbidity and rates of sedimentation, outbreaks of the toxic dinoflagellate Pfiesteria piscicida , and coastal erosion and submergence tied to sea-level rise. Such problems often are attributed to human activities in the bay's watershed, including pollution, urbanization, and deforestation, but it now is recognized that climatic factors also strongly influence bay salinity, temperature, and water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2019

Soil aggregates as a source of dissolved organic carbon to streams: An experimental study on the effect of solution chemistry on water extractable carbon

Over the past two decades, headwater streams of the northern hemisphere have shown increased amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coinciding with decreased acid deposition. The exact nature of the mechanistic link between precipitation composition and stream water DOC is still widely debated in the literature. We hypothesize that soil aggregates are the main source of stream water DOC and that DOC release is greater in organic rich, riparian soils vs. hillslope soils. To test these hypotheses, we collected soils from two main landscape positions (hillslope and riparian zones) from the acid-impacted Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont. We performed aqueous soil extracts with solutions of different ionic strength (IS) and composition to simulate changes in soil solution. We monitored dynamic changes in soil particle size, aggregate architecture and composition, leachate DOC concentrations, dissolved organic matter (DOM) characteristics by fluorescence spectroscopy and trends in bioavailability. In low IS solutions, extractable DOC concentrations were significantly higher, particle size (by laser diffraction) was significantly smaller and organic material was separated from mineral particles in scanning electron microscope observations. Furthermore, higher DOC concentrations were found in Na + compared to Ca 2+ solutions of the same IS. These effects are attributed to aggregate dispersion due to expanding diffuse double layers in decreased IS solutions and to decreased bridging by divalent cations. Landscape position impacted quality but not quantity of released DOC. Overall, these results indicate that soil aggregates might be one important link between Critical Zone inputs (i.e., precipitation) and exports in streams.

Vermont↗

USGS2019

A space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in intensity across many waterbodies worldwide, including the western basin of Lake Erie. Substantial efforts have been made to track these blooms using in situ sampling and remote sensing. However, such measurements do not fully capture HAB spatial and temporal dynamics due to the limitations of discrete shipboard sampling over large areas and the effects of clouds and winds on remote sensing estimates. To address these limitations, we develop a space-time geostatistical modeling framework to improve estimates of HAB timing, extent, and intensity using five independent sets of chlorophyll a (chl-a) data sampled from June to October, 2008 to 2017. Based on the Bayesian information criterion for model selection, trend variables explain bloom northerly and easterly expansion from Maumee Bay, wind effects over depth, and variability among sampling methods. Cross validation results indicate the model can estimate daily, location-specific chl-a concentrations with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 55%) between monitoring cruises. Conditional simulations provide probabilistic estimates of algal biomass and surface areal extent, which are compared to remote sensing estimates. The simulations also provide, for the first time, comprehensive estimates of overall bloom biomass based on depth-integrated concentrations, with quantified uncertainties. These estimates enhance our understanding of HAB variability and can inform HAB monitoring network design, predictive modeling, and management.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2000

16-year trends in elements of lichens at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, ND

An epiphytic lichen and a soil lichen in two very closely related genera (Parmelia sulcata and Xanthoparmelia chlorochroa, respectively) were sampled 16 years apart at Theodore Roosevelt National Park in North Dakota and measured for their elemental content. Mercury and cadmium decreased approximately 30% over the time period in both species. Sulfur decreased 8% in the epiphytic species, but increased 20% in the soil lichen. Factor analysis revealed that soil elements were higher in the soil lichen, indicating there was some soil contamination in that species. A relationship between iron and titanium was found only in the soil lichen. Sulfur and mercury were highly enriched in both species relative to the soil, which suggests that the atmosphere is a contributing source of these elements. New baseline values were calculated, 22 elements for both species, although it is not recommended that the soil lichen be sampled in the future.

North Dakota↗

USGS2003

Pleistocene glaciations of the Rocky Mountains

T his chapter presents the status of Rocky Mountain glacial studies in 1965 and progress from that time to the present. The Rocky Mountains and the adjacent Basin and Range of the United States consist of about 100 ranges distributed in a northwest trending belt 2,000 km long and 200–800 km wide. In 1965, Rocky Mountain glacial subdivisions and correlations are closely linked with those of the mid-continent. Also, erratic boulders and diamictons well beyond or above moraines of Pinedale and Bull Lake age are noted at many sites in the Rocky Mountains and are attributed to an older glaciation , vastly more extensive than the Bull Lake or Pinedale. Global climate models suggest that glacial-anticyclonic circulation weaken westerly flow and results in air that is cooler and drier than present, particularly for the northern Rocky Mountains. More precisely dated, glacial and lacustrine records may reveal patterns in such nonparallelism from south to north (colder) or east to west (wetter) throughout the Rocky Mountains.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho,Nevada New Me↗

USGS2008

Regional nitrate and pesticide trends in ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

Protection of ground water for present and future use requires monitoring and understanding of the mechanisms controlling long-term quality of ground water. In this study, spatial and temporal trends in concentrations of nitrate and pesticides in ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, were evaluated to determine the long-term effects of agricultural and urban development on regional ground-water quality. Trends in concentrations of nitrate, the nematocide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, and the herbicide simazine during the last two decades are generally consistent with known nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide use and with the position of the well networks in the regional ground-water flow system. Concentrations of nitrate and pesticides are higher in the shallow part of the aquifer system where domestic wells are typically screened, whereas concentrations are lower in the deep part of the aquifer system where public-supply wells are typically screened. Attenuation processes do not seem to significantly affect concentrations. Historical data indicate that concentrations of nitrate have increased since the 1950s in the shallow and deep parts of the aquifer system. Concentrations of nitrate and detection of pesticides in the deep part of the aquifer system will likely increase as the proportion of highly affected water contributed to these wells increases with time. Because of the time of travel between the water table and the deep part of the aquifer system, current concentrations in public-supply wells likely reflect the effects of 40- to 50-yr-old management practices. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Foundational uncertainties in terminal Ediacaran chronostratigraphy revealed by high-precision zircon U-Pb geochronology of the Nama Group, Namibia

The Nama Group of southern Namibia and northwestern South Africa hosts the best-dated mixed carbonate-siliciclastic foreland basin succession of the terminal Ediacaran [ca. 551 million years (Ma) ago to <538 Ma] and is key for resolving the chronology of early metazoan evolution. Numerous silicified volcanic tuff interbeds are present, but differing interpretations regarding the fidelity of their ages lead to different regional stratigraphic correlations, especially for the Urusis Formation of the Schwarzrand Subgroup. An expanded record of the Urusis Formation is found in the Swartpunt area of southern Namibia, which has yielded an important metazoan biota. But the succession in this area is preserved as a series of thrusts at the leading edge of the Gariep orogenic belt and zircon U-Pb data show systematic age repetition. We use regional stratigraphic and structural mapping, integrated with carbonate carbon isotope (δ 13 C carb ) chemostratigraphy and high-precision radioisotope U-Pb zircon geochronology from outcrop and recently acquired drill core to develop a temporally calibrated basin-wide depositional model. This integrated dataset either reflects complex zircon reworking, inheritance, or potential analytical biases (Scenario 1) or the presence of a Gariep-related cryptic décollement within the Spitskop Member that has resulted in stratigraphic repetition (Scenario 2). We investigate the evidence for and against both scenarios and consider their implications for stratigraphic and δ 13 C carb correlations between the Swartpunt area and coeval exposures along the Orange River border with South Africa. Given that these issues are in an area that hosts numerous silicified ash beds and extensive exposure, an inability to confidently discount either scenario highlights a level of compounding uncertainty in zircon U-Pb geochronology that must be considered when attempting to build global chronostratigraphic frameworks. Scenario 1 implies that some of the weighted mean ages and Bayesian eruption ages from the Swartpunt area may be >1 Myr older than the depositional age of their respective ash beds when assuming existing stratigraphic correlations. If this scenario is preferred, then a cautious approach would be to consider all weighted mean zircon U-Pb ages from ash beds to reflect maximum depositional ages. Both scenarios support deposition of the Huns Member >540 Ma in the Swartpunt area if the oldest weighted mean age reported here represents a near-depositional age, which has significant implications for the temporal calibration of important terminal Ediacaran ichnofossil assemblages and future cyclostratigraphic studies. Stratigraphic correlations common to both scenarios allow us to temporally calibrate a basin evolution model for the Nama Group. Temporal trends in initial hafnium isotope (εHf) compositions of zircon grains from ash beds throughout the succession may support progressive crustal thickening associated with underplating of the Damara orogenic belt along the northern periphery of the Kalahari craton from ca. 547 Ma to ca. 538 Ma. The compilation of new and published zircon U-Pb ages may also imply that the locus of carbonate platform development migrated from north to south (present co-ordinates), tracking the migration of foredeep subsidence.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2020

Landscape drivers of dynamic change in water quality of US rivers

Water security is a top concern for social well-being and dramatic changes in the availability of freshwater have occurred as a result of human uses and landscape management. Elevated nutrient loading and perturbations to major ion composition have resulted from human activities and have degraded freshwater resources. This study addresses the emerging nature of stream water quality in the 21st century through analysis of concentrations and trends in a wide variety of constituents in streams and rivers of the U.S. Concentrations of fifteen separate water quality parameters including nutrients, major ions, sediment, and specific conductance were analyzed over the period 1982-2012 and a targeted trend analysis was performed from 1992-2012. Although environmental policy is geared toward addressing the long-standing problem of nutrient overenrichment, these efforts have had uneven success, with decreasing nutrient concentrations at urbanized sites and little to no change at agricultural sites. However, freshwaters are being salinized rapidly in all human-dominated land use types. Increasing salinity negatively affects biodiversity, mobilizes sediment-bound contaminants, and increases lead contamination of drinking water but the effects are poorly quantified. Therefore, while efforts to control nutrients are ongoing, rapid salinity increases are ushering in a new set of poorly-defined issues.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS1999

Correlation of soil and sediment organic matter polarity to aqueous sorption of nonionic compounds

Polarities of the soiL/sediment organic matter (SOM) in 19 soil and 9 freshwater sediment sam pies were determined from solid-state 13C-CP/MAS NMR spectra and compared with published partition coefficients (K(oc)) of carbon tetrachloride (CT) from aqueous solution. Nondestructive analysis of whole samples by solid-state NMR permits a direct assessment of the polarity of SOM that is not possible by elemental analysis. The percent of organic carbon associated with polar functional groups was estimated from the combined fraction of carbohydrate and carboxylamide-ester carbons. A plot of the measured partition coefficients (K(oc)) of carbon tetrachloride (CT) vs. percent polar organic carbon (POC) shows distinctly different populations of soils and sediments as well as a roughly inverse trend among the soil/sediment populations. Plots of K(oc) values for CT against other structural group carbon fractions did not yield distinct populations. The results indicate that the polarity of SOM is a significant factor in accounting for differences in K(oc) between the organic matter in soils and sediments. The alternate direct correlation of the sum of aliphatic and aromatic structural carbons with K(oc) illustrates the influence of nonpolar hydrocarbon on solute partition interaction. Additional elemental analysis data of selected samples further substantiate the effect of the organic matter polarity on the partition efficiency of nonpolar solutes. The separation between soil and sediment samples based on percent POC reflects definite differences of the properties of soil and sediment organic matters that are attributable to diagenesis.Polarities of the soil/sediment organic matter (SOM) in 19 soil and 9 freshwater sediment samples were determined from solid-state 13C-CP/MAS NMR spectra and compared with published partition coefficients (Koc) of carbon tetrachloride (CT) from aqueous solution. Nondestructive analysis of whole samples by solid-state NMR permits a direct assessment of the polarity of SOM that is not possible by elemental analysis. The percent of organic carbon associated with polar functional groups was estimated from the combined fraction of carbohydrate and carboxyl-amide-ester carbons. A plot of the measured partition coefficients (Koc) of carbon tetrachloride (CT) vs. percent polar organic carbon (POC) shows distinctly different populations of soils and sediments as well as a roughly inverse trend among the soil/sediment populations. Plots of Koc values for CT against other structural group carbon fractions did not yield distinct populations. The results indicate that the polarity of SOM is a significant factor in accounting for differences in Koc between the organic matter in soils and sediments. The alternate direct correlation of the sum of aliphatic and aromatic structural carbons with Koc illustrates the influence of nonpolar hydrocarbon on solute partition interaction. Additional elemental analysis data of selected samples further substantiate the effect of the organic matter polarity on the partition efficiency of nonpolar solutes. The separation between soil and sediment samples based on percent POC reflects definite differences of the properties of soil and sediment organic matters that are attributable to diagenesis.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2010

The onset of metamorphism in ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites

Ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites of the lowest petrologic types were surveyed by X-ray mapping techniques. A variety of metamorphic effects were noted and subjected to detailed analysis using electron microprobe, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and cathodoluminescence (CL) methods. The distribution of Cr in FeO-rich olivine systematically changes as metamorphism increases between type 3.0 and type 3.2. Igneous zoning patterns are replaced by complex ones and Cr-rich coatings develop on all grains. Cr distributions in olivine are controlled by the exsolution of a Cr-rich phase, probably chromite. Cr in olivine may have been partly present as tetrahedrally coordinated Cr 3+ . Separation of chromite is nearly complete by petrologic type 3.2. The abundance of chondrules showing an inhomogeneous distribution of alkalis in mesostasis also increases with petrologic type. TEM shows this to be the result of crystallization of albite. Residual glass compositions systematically change during metamorphism, becoming increasingly rich in K. Glass in type I chondrules also gains alkalis during metamorphism. Both types of chondrules were open to an exchange of alkalis with opaque matrix and other chondrules. The matrix in the least metamorphosed chondrites is rich in S and Na. The S is lost from the matrix at the earliest stages of metamorphism due to coalescence of minute grains. Progressive heating also results in the loss of sulfides from chondrule rims and increases sulfide abundances in coarse matrix assemblages as well as inside chondrules. Alkalis initially leave the matrix and enter chondrules during early metamorphism. Feldspar subsequently nucleates in the matrix and Na re-enters from chondrules. These metamorphic trends can be used to refine classification schemes for chondrites. Cr distributions in olivine are a highly effective tool for assigning petrologic types to the most primitive meteorites and can be used to subdivide types 3.0 and 3.1 into types 3.00 through 3.15. On this basis, the most primitive ordinary chondrite known is Semarkona, although even this meteorite has experienced a small amount of metamorphism. Allan Hills (ALH) A77307 is the least metamorphosed CO chondrite and shares many properties with the ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite Acfer 094. Analytical problems are significant for glasses in type II chondrules, as Na is easily lost during microprobe analysis. As a result, existing schemes for chondrule classification that are based on the alkali content of glasses need to be revised.

Meteoritics and Planetary Science↗

USGS1976

An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely, Colorado

An experiment in an oil field at Rangely, Colorado, has demonstrated the feasibility of earthquake control. Variations in seismicity were produced by controlled variations in the fluid pressure in a seismically active zone. Precise earthquake locations revealed that the earthquakes clustered about a fault trending through a zone of high pore pressure produced by secondary recovery operations. Laboratory measurements of the frictional properties of the reservoir rocks and an in situ stress measurement made near the earthquake zone were used to predict the fluid pressure required to trigger earthquakes on preexisting fractures. Fluid pressure was controlled by alternately injecting and recovering water from wells that penetrated the seismic zone. Fluid pressure was monitored in observation wells, and a computer model of the reservoir was used to infer the fluid pressure distributions in the vicinity of the injection wells. The results of this experiment confirm the predicted effect of fluid pressure on earthquake activity and indicate that earthquakes can be controlled wherever we can control the fluid pressure in a fault zone.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2014

Occurrence and origin of Escherichia coli in water and sediments at two public swimming beaches at Lake of the Ozarks State Park, Camden County, Missouri, 2011-13

In the past several years, the Missouri Department of Natural Resources has closed two popular public beaches, Grand Glaize Beach and Public Beach 1, at Lake of the Ozarks State Park in Osage Beach, Missouri when monitoring results exceeded the established Escherichia coli (E. coli) standard. As a result of the beach closures, the U.S. Geological Survey and Missouri University of Science and Technology, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, led an investigation into the occurrence and origins of E. coli at Grand Glaize Beach and Public Beach 1. The study included the collection of more than 1,300 water, sediment, and fecal source samples between August 2011 and February 2013 from the two beaches and vicinity. Spatial and temporal patterns of E. coli concentrations in water and sediments combined with measurements of environmental variables, beach-use patterns, and Missouri Department of Natural Resources water-tracing results were used to identify possible sources of E. coli contamination at the two beaches and to corroborate microbial source tracking (MST) sampling efforts. Results from a 2011 reconnaissance sampling indicate that water samples from Grand Glaize Beach cove contained significantly larger E. coli concentrations than adjacent coves and were largest at sites at the upper end of Grand Glaize Beach cove, indicating a probable local source of E. coli contamination within the upper end of the cove. Results from an intensive sampling effort during 2012 indicated that E. coli concentrations in water samples at Grand Glaize Beach cove were significantly larger in ankle-deep water than waist-deep water, trended downward during the recreational season, significantly increased with an increase in the total number of bathers at the beach, and were largest during the middle of the day. Concentrations of E. coli in nearshore sediment (sediment near the shoreline) at Grand Glaize Beach were significantly larger in foreshore samples (samples collected above the shoreline) than in samples collected in ankle-deep water below the shoreline, significantly larger in the left and middle areas of the beach than the right area, and substantially larger than similar studies at E. coli- contaminated beaches on Lake Erie in Ohio. Concentrations of E. coli in the water column also were significantly larger after resuspension of sediments. Results of MST indicate a predominance of waterfowl-associated markers in nearshore sediments at Grand Glaize Beach consistent with frequent observations of goose and vulture fecal matter in sediment, especially on the left and middle areas of the beach. The combination of spatial and temporal sampling and MST indicate that an important source of E. coli contamination at Grand Glaize Beach during 2012 was E. coli released into the water column by bathers resuspending E. coli-contaminated sediments, especially during high-use days early in the recreational season.

Missouri↗