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USGS2010

Hydrology and Ecology of Freshwater Wetlands in Central Florida - A Primer

Freshwater wetlands are an integral part of central Florida, where thousands are distributed across the landscape. However, their relatively small size and vast numbers challenge efforts to characterize them collectively as a statewide water resource. Wetlands are a dominant landscape feature in Florida; in 1996, an estimated 11.4 million acres of wetlands occupied 29 percent of the area of the State. Wetlands represent a greater percentage of the land surface in Florida than in any other state in the conterminous United States. Statewide, 90 percent of the total wetland area is freshwater wetlands and 10 percent is coastal wetlands. About 55 percent of the freshwater wetlands in Florida are forested, 25 percent are marshes and emergent wetlands, 18 percent are scrub-shrub wetlands, and the remaining 2 percent are freshwater ponds. Freshwater wetlands are distributed differently in central Florida than in other parts of the State. In the panhandle and in northern Florida, there are fewer isolated wetlands than in the central and southern parts of the State, and few of those wetlands are affected by activities such as groundwater withdrawals. In southern Florida, the vast wetlands of the Everglades and the Big Cypress Swamp blanket the landscape and form contiguous shallow expanses of water, which often exhibit slow but continuous flow toward the southwestern coast. In contrast, the wetlands of central Florida are relatively small, numerous, mostly isolated, and widely distributed. In many places, wetlands are flanked by uplands, generating a mosaic of contrasting environments-unique wildlife habitat often adjacent to dense human development. As the population of central Florida increases, the number of residents living near wetlands also increases. Living in close proximity to wetlands provides many Floridians with an increased awareness of nature and an opportunity to examine the relationship between people and wetlands. Specifically, these residents can observe how wetlands are affected by human activities. Freshwater wetlands are unique and complex ecosystems defined by characteristic properties. Wetlands usually have standing water during at least part of the year, although water depths can vary from a few inches to as much as several feet from one wetland to another. The hydrologic behavior of wetlands is influenced by drainage basin characteristics, as well as by natural variations in climate. Wetlands in central Florida (especially forested wetlands) often have acidic waters that are darkly stained from organic substances released by decomposing leaves and other plant material. Wetlands are characterized by biogeochemical cycles in which vital elements such as carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and others are transformed as they move between wetland soils and sediments, the open water, and the atmosphere. Wetlands are populated with plants that can thrive under conditions of saturated soils and low dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The bottoms of many wetlands, especially marshes, are covered with decayed plant material that can accumulate over time to form brown peat or black muck soils. Wetlands are inhabited by animals that need standing water to complete some or all of their life cycles, and they also provide periodic food, water, and shelter for many other animals that spend most of their lives on dry land. The complex and interrelated components of wetlands directly affect one another and there are numerous feedback mechanisms.

Circular↗

USGS2018

Monitoring riparian-vegetation composition and cover along the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

Vegetation in the riparian zone (the area immediately adjacent to streams, such as stream banks) along the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, supports many ecosystem and societal functions. In both Glen Canyon and Grand Canyon, this ecosystem has changed over time in response to flow alterations, invasive species, and recreational use. Riparian-vegetation cover and composition are likely to continue to change as these pressures persist and new ones emerge. Because this system is a valuable resource that is known to change in response to flow regime and other disturbances, a long-term monitoring protocol has been designed with three primary objectives: Annually measure and summarize the status (composition and cover) of native and non-native vascular-plant species within the riparian zone of the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead. At 5-year intervals, assess change in vegetation composition and cover in the riparian zone, as related to geomorphic setting and dam operations, particularly flow regime. Collect data in a manner that can be used by multiple stakeholders, particularly the basinwide monitoring program overseen by the National Park Service’s Northern Colorado Plateau Network Inventory and Monitoring program. A protocol for the long-term monitoring of riparian vegetation is described in detail and standard operating procedures are included herein for all tasks. Visual estimates of foliar and ground covers are collected in conjunction with environmental measurements to assess correlations of foliar cover with abiotic and flow variables. Sample quadrats are stratified by frequency of inundation, geomorphic feature, and by river segment to account for differences in vegetation type. Photographs of sites are also taken to illustrate qualitative characteristics of the site at the time of sampling. Procedures for field preparation, generating random samples, data collection, data management, collecting and managing unknown species collections, and reporting are also described. Although this protocol is intended to be consistent over the long-term, procedures for minor and major revisions to the protocol are also outlined.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

Quantifying uncertainty and tradeoffs in resilience assessments

Several frameworks have been developed to assess the resilience of social-ecological systems, but most require substantial data inputs, time, and technical expertise. Stakeholders and practitioners often lack the resources for such intensive efforts. Furthermore, most end with problem framing and fail to explicitly address trade-offs and uncertainty. To remedy this gap, we developed a rapid survey assessment that compares the relative resilience of social-ecological systems with respect to a number of resilience properties. This approach generates large amounts of information relative to stakeholder inputs. We targeted four stakeholder categories: government (policy, regulation, management), end users (farmers, ranchers, landowners, industry), agency/public science (research, university, extension), and NGOs (environmental, citizen, social justice) in four North American watersheds, to assess social-ecological resilience through surveys. Conceptually, social-ecological systems are comprised of components ranging from strictly human to strictly ecological, but that relate directly or indirectly to one another. They have soft boundaries and several important dimensions or axes that together describe the nature of social-ecological interactions, e.g., variability, diversity, modularity, slow variables, feedbacks, capital, innovation, redundancy, and ecosystem services. There is no absolute measure of resilience, so our design takes advantage of cross-watershed comparisons and therefore focuses on relative resilience. Our approach quantifies and compares the relative resilience across watershed systems and potential trade-offs among different aspects of the social-ecological system, e.g., between social, economic, and ecological contributions. This approach permits explicit assessment of several types of uncertainty (e.g., self-assigned uncertainty for stakeholders; uncertainty across respondents, watersheds, and subsystems), and subjectivity in perceptions of resilience among key actors and decision makers and provides an efficient way to develop the mental models that inform our stakeholders and stakeholder categories.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2009

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha −1 year −1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha −1 year −1 . To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS1995

A comparison of avian hematozoan epizootiology in two California coastal scrub communities

Passerine birds within two California (USA) coastal scrub ecosystems, an island and a mainland site, were examined for hematozoa from 1984 to 1990. Island birds had a significantly lower hematozoan prevalence than mainland birds. This prevalence difference can be related to a lack of appropriate hematozoan vectors on the island. Haemoproteus spp. and Leucocytozoon spp. were the most commonly encountered hematozoa; four new species of Leucocytozoon spp. and one new Haemoproteus sp. were found in five host families. No transmission of hematozoan parasites was detected at the island site during the study. At the mainland coastal scrub site, Leucocytozoon spp. was transmitted each year while Plasmodium spp. and Haemoproteus spp. transmission varied between years. There was evidence that some species of birds acquired infections outside of their breeding season. Results of this study lend further support to the prediction of decreased disease on remote island ecosystems.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2024

Patterns and drivers of cottonwood mortality in the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA

Riparian ecosystems are some of the most valuable and vulnerable on the planet. Riparian tree mortality is increasing in the western United States, where altered streamflows are combining with warming climate. Between 2011 and 2013, one third of an extensive stand of Populus deltoides var. wislizeni (Rio Grande cottonwood) died along the middle Rio Grande on the Pueblo of Santa Ana in New Mexico. Mortality coincided with a severe drought that followed a decade of decreasing streamflow, but it was heterogeneous, with adjacent patches of dead and live trees. The goal of this research was to determine the drivers of mortality to provide insights into future risks of die-off and potential management interventions. We compared tree age, competition, tree-ring widths, sediment particle size and climate influences between live and dead forest patches in a nested plot design. Live and dead trees had similar age, stand density and particle sizes of shallow sediments. Tree-ring widths had the highest correlations with July–September streamflow (1932–2013). All trees had declining ring growth since 1992, coinciding with declining late summer streamflow. An accelerated decline in growth began in 2002, corresponding to recent warmer droughts. Trees that died had lower ring growth 3 years prior to death and in the mid-1900s. Dead trees also had coarser deep sediments 2.4–3.7 m below ground, suggesting that reduced water holding capacity was an important factor for mortality. Water management to increase streamflow during the late summer, especially during times of extended drought, could reduce mortality risk in the face of projected increasingly warm droughts.

New Mexico↗

USGS2014

Sustainability of the Lake Superior fish community: Interactions in a food web context

The restoration and rehabilitation of the native fish communities is a long-term goal for the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Superior, the ongoing restoration of the native lake trout populations is now regarded as one of the major success stories in fisheries management. However, populations of the deepwater morphotype (siscowet lake trout) have increased much more substantially than those of the nearshore morphotype (lean lake trout), and the ecosystem now contains an assemblage of exotic species such as sea lamprey, rainbow smelt, and Pacific salmon (chinook, coho, and steelhead). Those species play an important role in defining the constraints and opportunities for ecosystem management. We combined an equilibrium mass balance model (Ecopath) with a dynamic food web model (Ecosim) to evaluate the ecological consequences of future alternative management strategies and the interaction of two different sets of life history characteristics for fishes at the top of the food web. Relatively rapid turnover rates occur among the exotic forage fish, rainbow smelt, and its primary predators, exotic Pacific salmonids. Slower turnover rates occur among the native lake trout and burbot and their primary prey—lake herring, smelt, deepwater cisco, and sculpins. The abundance of forage fish is a key constraint for all salmonids in Lake Superior. Smelt and Mysis play a prominent role in sustaining the current trophic structure. Competition between the native lake trout and the exotic salmonids is asymmetric. Reductions in the salmon population yield only a modest benefit for the stocks of lake trout, whereas increased fishing of lake trout produces substantial potential increases in the yields of Pacific salmon to recreational fisheries. The deepwater or siscowet morphotype of lake trout has become very abundant. Although it plays a major role in the structure of the food web it offers little potential for the restoration of a valuable commercial or recreational fishery. Even if a combination of strong management actions is implemented, the populations of lean (nearshore) lake trout cannot be restored to pre-fishery and pre-lamprey levels. Thus, management strategy must accept the ecological constraints due in part to the presence of exotics and choose alternatives that sustain public interest in the resources while continuing the gradual progress toward restoration.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2005

Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems

It is difficult to find references to fire in general textbooks on ecology, conservation biology or biogeography, in spite of the fact that large parts of the world burn on a regular basis, and that there is a considerable literature on the ecology of fire and its use for managing ecosystems. Fire has been burning ecosystems for hundreds of millions of years, helping to shape global biome distribution and to maintain the structure and function of fire-prone communities. Fire is also a significant evolutionary force, and is one of the first tools that humans used to re-shape their world. Here, we review the recent literature, drawing parallels between fire and herbivores as alternative consumers of vegetation. We point to the common questions, and some surprisingly different answers, that emerge from viewing fire as a globally significant consumer that is analogous to herbivory.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2010

Modeling the production, decomposition, and transport of dissolved organic carbon in boreal soils

The movement of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through boreal ecosystems has drawn increased attention because of its potential impact on the feedback of OC stocks to global environmental change in this region. Few models of boreal DOC exist. Here we present a one-dimensional model with simultaneous production, decomposition, sorption/desorption, and transport of DOC to describe the behavior of DOC in the OC layers above the mineral soils. The field-observed concentration profiles of DOC in two moderately well-drained black spruce forest sites (one with permafrost and one without permafrost), coupled with hourly measured soil temperature and moisture, were used to inversely estimate the unknown parameters associated with the sorption/desorption kinetics using a global optimization strategy. The model, along with the estimated parameters, reasonably reproduces the concentration profiles of DOC and highlights some important potential controls over DOC production and cycling in boreal settings. The values of estimated parameters suggest that humic OC has a larger potential production capacity for DOC than fine OC, and most of the DOC produced from fine OC was associated with instantaneous sorption/desorption whereas most of the DOC produced from humic OC was associated with time-dependent sorption/desorption. The simulated DOC efflux at the bottom of soil OC layers was highly dependent on the component and structure of the OC layers. The DOC efflux was controlled by advection at the site with no humic OC and moist conditions and controlled by diffusion at the site with the presence of humic OC and dry conditions.

Soil Science↗

USGS2011

Effects of lowhead dams on riffle-dwelling fishes and macroinvertebrates in a Midwestern river

Many studies have assessed the effects of large dams on fishes and macroinvertebrates, but few have examined the effects of lowhead dams. We sampled fishes, macroinvertebrates, habitat, and physicochemistry monthly from November 2000 to October 2001 at eight gravel bar sites centered around two lowhead dams on the Neosho River, Kansas. Sites included a reference site and a treatment site both upstream and downstream from each dam. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that habitat, but not physicochemistry, varied immediately upstream and down-stream from the dams, with resultant effects on macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages. Compared with reference sites, upstream treatment sites were deeper and had lower velocities and downstream treatment sites were shallower and had higher velocities; both upstream and downstream treatment sites had greater substrate compaction than reference sites. Macroinvertebrate richness did not differ among site types, but abundance was lowest at downstream treatment sites and evenness was lowest at upstream treatment sites. Fish species richness did not differ among site types, but abundance was highest at downstream reference sites and evenness was highest at upstream sites. The abundance of some benthic fishes was influenced by the dams, including that of the Neosho madtom Noturus placidus, which was lowest immediately upstream and downstream from dams, and those of the suckermouth minnow Phenacobius mirabilis, orangethroat darter Etheostoma spectabile, and slenderhead darter Percina phoxocephala, which were highest in downstream treatment sites. Although limited to one system during a 1-year period, this study suggests that the effects of lowhead dams on fishes, macroinvertebrates, and habitat are similar to those reported for larger dams, providing important considerations for riverine ecosystem conservation efforts.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2002

Potential responses of riparian vegetation to dam removal

Throughout the world, riparian habitats have been dramatically modified from their natural condition. Dams are one of the principal causes of these changes, because of their alteration of water and sediment regimes ( Nilsson and Berggren 2000 ). Because of the array of ecological goods and services provided by natural riparian ecosystems ( Naiman and Decamps 1997 ), their conservation and restoration have become the focus of many land and water managers. Efforts to restore riparian habitats and other riverine ecosystems have included the management of flow releases downstream of dams to more closely mimic natural flows ( Poff et al. 1997 ), but dam removal has received little attention as a possible approach to riparian restoration.

BioScience↗

USGS2010

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade

Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small-bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit-and-wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide-ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves ( Canis lupus ) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) by causing elk ( Cervus elaphus ) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator–prey life history and ecological context.

Yellowstone↗

USGS2024

Integrated science for the study of microplastics in the environment—A strategic science vision for the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Evidence of the widespread occurrence of microplastics throughout our environment and exposure to humans and other organisms over the past decade has led to questions about the possibility of health hazards and mitigation of exposures. This document discusses nanoplastics as well as microplastics (referred to solely as microplastics); the microplastics have a range from 1 micrometer to 5 millimeters (1 μm–5 mm) in length, whereas the nanoplastics are less than 1 μm in length (sidebar ES1). A myriad of environmental exposure pathways with microplastics to humans and wildlife, including ingestion, inhalation, and bodily absorption, are likely to exist. A growing body of evidence has documented bioaccumulation of microplastics in tissues and organs of humans and wildlife, benthic community effects, and potential nutritional and reproductive effects in some wildlife species. Understanding if or when environmental exposures pose a health risk is complicated by the diversity of microplastic sizes, morphologies, polymer types, and chemicals added during manufacturing or sorbed from the environment; ongoing challenges in analytical methods used to detect, quantify, and characterize microplastics and associated chemicals in our ecosystems; and the fact that ecotoxicological studies regarding microplastics are still in their infancy. Therefore, the study of environmental exposures and potential related health hazards of microplastics to the public and wildlife is a One Health (sidebar ES2) research topic that necessitates integrated science approaches. A better understanding of the sources, pathways, fate, and biological effects of microplastics has become a priority of the Federal Government, State governments, Tribes, stakeholders, and the public. Examples of Federal and State microplasticfocused legislation and programs to prioritize microplastic research and reduction include the Federal Microbead-Free Waters Act of 2015, California Senate Bills 1422 and 1263 (2018), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Trash Free Waters Program, the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s Microplastic and Nanoplastic Metrology project, and Minnesota’s microplastic project. With its unique expertise and capabilities, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is well positioned to help fill some of the most important microplastic science gaps. This strategic science vision document for microplastics identifies current (2023) microplastic science gaps and prioritizes research relevant to the mission, expertise, and capabilities of the USGS. It is intended for USGS scientists and stakeholders to use as a starting point for planning, prioritizing, and designing collaborative environmental microplastic science. Many of the microplastic science gaps and priorities are scalable, from local to national, and thus, can be made commensurate with available funding and evolving analytical and field tools, laboratory capacity, and stakeholder needs. Current (2023) or future research by academia and other Federal or State agencies, and Tribes may be aimed at some of the same microplastic science gaps identified in this document. Therefore, this document can be used as an information resource to maximize strengths and capabilities and minimize redundancy in communication and collaboration.

Circular↗

USGS2012

U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 2011 report of selected wildlife diseases

The National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) was founded in 1975 to provide technical assistance in identifying, controlling, and preventing wildlife losses from diseases, conduct research to understand the impact of diseases on wildlife populations, and devise methods to more effectively manage these disease threats. The impetus behind the creation of the NWHC was, in part, the catastrophic loss of tens of thousands of waterfowl as a result of an outbreak of duck plague at the Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge in South Dakota during January 1973. In 1996, the NWHC, along with other Department of Interior research functions, was transferred from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), where we remain one of many entities that provide the independent science that forms the bases of the sound management of the Nation’s natural resources. Our mission is to provide national leadership to safeguard wildlife and ecosystem health through dynamic partnerships and exceptional science. The main campus of the NWHC is located in Madison, Wis., where we maintain biological safety level 3 (BSL–3) diagnostic and research facilities purposefully designed for work with wildlife species. The NWHC provides research and technical assistance on wildlife health issues to State, Federal, and international agencies. In addition, since 1992 we have maintained a field station in Hawaii, the Honolulu Field Station, which focuses on marine and terrestrial natural resources throughout the Pacific region. The NWHC conducts diagnostic investigations of unusual wildlife morbidity and mortality events nationwide to detect the presence of wildlife pathogens and determine the cause of death. This is also an important activity for detecting new, emerging and resurging diseases. The NWHC provides this crucial information on the presence of wildlife diseases to wildlife managers to support sound management decisions. The data and information generated also allows for further indepth analyses for determining the biological and ecological significance of disease events, detecting disease trends over time and space, as well as detecting any significant changes to how diseases manifest in the field. Moreover, this information allows us to gain insight into the significance of future wildlife disease events. The purpose of this report is to provide a sample of NWHC data that are available from our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS). These data are presented in summary format with minimal statistical analysis and interpretation. The goal is to share these data with wildlife managers and other stakeholders, promote the use of NHWC data, and encourage the sharing of wildlife disease data to improve temporal and geographic surveillance coverage. Continued national surveillance for wildlife diseases is essential for providing early detection and warning of events that have the potential to result in harm to human health, economic losses, declines in wildlife populations, and subsequent ecological disturbances. Increased collaboration, coordination, and sharing of surveillance data will enhance this Nation’s ability to detect and respond to wildlife disease threats.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km 2 of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.

Great Basin↗

USGS2022

Estimating Pacific walrus abundance and survival with multievent mark-recapture models

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid physical and biological change associated with climate warming and loss of sea ice. Sea ice loss will impact many species through altered spatial and temporal availability of resources. In the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is one species that could be impacted by rapid environmental change, and thus, population assessments are needed to monitor changes in the status of this ecologically and culturally important marine mammal. We conducted a 5 yr genetic mark-recapture study to estimate demographic parameters for the Pacific walrus. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark-recapture model to estimate walrus survival and abundance while accounting for age misclassification. We estimated the probability of juvenile annual survival as 0.63 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.39-0.87) and adult female annual survival as 0.90 (95% CrI: 0.74-1.00). We estimated total abundance as 257 193 (95% CrI: 171 138-366 366). We provide the first estimate of total Pacific walrus abundance since an aerial survey in 2006, which generated a substantially less precise total population size estimate (129 000; 95% CI: 55 000-507 000). The emerging ecosystem state in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas will likely result in a decline in Pacific walrus abundance, but there is substantial uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the anticipated decline. Our demographic estimates provide critical information to evaluate future population trends of this subsistence resource vital to communities that border the Bering and Chukchi Seas in the USA and Russia.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Mississippi’s resiliency and changing environmental conditions

Mississippi is experiencing shifts in environmental conditions, many of which are expected to intensify in the coming decades, and will have important implications for ecosystems, species, and natural resource management across the state. Historical climate analyses and downscaled projections summarized for the state’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level III Ecoregions show that Mississippi will likely face increases in extremely hot days, more intense heatwaves, greater evapotranspiration, and reductions in cold-season extremes. Temperature trends indicate that while Mississippi has warmed relatively little over the last century, recent years have been among the warmest on record. Projections suggest substantial increases in the number of days with maximum temperatures at or above 95°F across all Ecoregions, particularly under higher warming scenarios. Correspondingly, the number of freezing nights is expected to decline, with statewide decreases of 7–21 days depending on the global warming level and timeframe. These combined patterns are likely to reshape habitat conditions, influence species’ thermal stress, and alter ecological processes such as soil moisture retention and stream temperature regimes. Mississippi’s hydrological systems are also expected to be significantly affected. Extreme rainfall events, particularly the most intense 1% of precipitation days, are projected to increase across the state, raising risks of flooding, erosion, and altered stream flow. Coastal Mississippi faces additional stress from sea‑level rise, which is already contributing to more frequent high‑tide flooding; projections show continued increases in inundation risk throughout the century. These flooding patterns, combined with stronger hurricane rainfall rates and the potential for landfalling storms to stall, pose ongoing threats to coastal ecosystems and communities. The state is also vulnerable to extreme weather hazards such as tornadoes. Recent research shows a geographic shift in tornado activity toward the Southeast, with Mississippi experiencing some of the nation’s greatest increases in favorable tornado days and nighttime tornado frequency—hazards that have direct implications for wildlife, habitat stability, and human safety. Drought conditions may intensify as well: higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration during dry spells could worsen water stress regardless of uncertainty in average annual precipitation. These changing environmental conditions have important consequences for Mississippi’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). Vulnerability assessments and ecological niche models indicate that several fish, mussel, crayfish, plant, amphibian, bird, and mammal species may face heightened stress due to warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, habitat loss, and increases in extreme events. For example, many cold‑water and moisture‑dependent species in the state’s rivers and wetlands are already near their thermal limits, and further warming could reduce suitable habitat. Birds breeding in bottomland hardwood forests, such as the Prothonotary Warbler, are increasingly susceptible to nest loss from flooding. Similarly, species like the Louisiana Black Bear may encounter higher risks from habitat inundation and shifting food availability. The “A Closer Look” section underscores the vulnerability of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain—one of the state’s most ecologically rich yet heavily altered Ecoregions. Its bottomland hardwood forests, wetlands, and floodplain habitats support diverse wildlife but are increasingly threatened by rising temperatures, hydrological changes, development pressures, and compounded disturbances. These habitats provide critical ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood attenuation, and biodiversity support, making their conservation particularly urgent under future conditions. Collectively, these findings indicate that Mississippi’s ongoing and projected environmental changes present both challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. Incorporating adaptation strategies into the State Wildlife Action Plan will be essential for sustaining habitats, mitigating risks, and supporting the long‑term resilience of Mississippi’s wildlife and ecosystems.

Mississippi↗

USGS2013

Woodland dynamics at the northern range periphery: A challenge for protected area management in a changing world

Managers of protected natural areas increasingly are confronted with novel ecological conditions and conflicting objectives to preserve the past while fostering resilience for an uncertain future. This dilemma may be pronounced at range peripheries where rates of change are accelerated and ongoing invasions often are perceived as threats to local ecosystems. We provide an example from City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO) in southern Idaho, positioned at the northern range periphery of pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland. Reserve managers are concerned about P-J woodland encroachment into adjacent sagebrush steppe, but the rates and biophysical variability of encroachment are not well documented and management options are not well understood. We quantified the rate and extent of woodland change between 1950 and 2009 based on a random sample of aerial photo interpretation plots distributed across biophysical gradients. Our study revealed that woodland cover remained at approximately 20% of the study area over the 59-year period. In the absence of disturbance, P-J woodlands exhibited the highest rate of increase among vegetation types at 0.37% yr −1 . Overall, late-successional P-J stands increased in area by over 100% through the process of densification (infilling). However, wildfires during the period resulted in a net decrease of woody evergreen vegetation, particularly among early and mid-successional P-J stands. Elevated wildfire risk associated with expanding novel annual grasslands and drought is likely to continue to be a fundamental driver of change in CIRO woodlands. Because P-J woodlands contribute to regional biodiversity and may contract at trailing edges with global warming, CIRO may become important to P-J woodland conservation in the future. Our study provides a widely applicable toolset for assessing woodland ecotone dynamics that can help managers reconcile the competing demands to maintain historical fidelity and contribute meaningfully to the U.S. protected area network in a future with novel, no-analog ecosystems.

Idaho↗