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USGS2025

Revisiting an enigma on California's north coast: The Mw6.5 Fickle Hill earthquake of 21 December 1954

Many earthquakes occur along the North Coast of California in the vicinity of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), where the Pacific, Gorda, and North American (NA) plates meet, and on the adjacent plate boundaries. The MTJ marks the nexus of the Mendocino and San Andreas faults with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). Historically, most large earthquakes around the MTJ have been within the offshore Gorda plate and its subducted portion beneath the NA plate. North of the MTJ, active faults mapped in the NA plate are part of the CSZ fold‐and‐thrust belt. Although some events have been detected in the NA plate, no large historic events have been associated with mapped surface faults. The 21 December 1954 M w 6.5 earthquake in Humboldt County is one possible exception. Using published data from catalogs and articles, unpublished data from Berkeley’s archives, and S ‐ P times interpreted from two U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS) accelerometers, we determine a probability cloud for the earthquake’s hypocenter using NonLinLoc. The highest probability location lies beneath Fickle Hill just east of the city of Arcata, California, at 40.87° N, 124.03° W, and ∼11 km depth. Using P ‐wave polarities from Berkeley stations and the digitized waveforms from the accelerometers, we find that the focal mechanism most consistent with the data indicates thrust movement with strike, dip, and rake of 350°, 10°, and 90°, respectively, at a depth of 14 km. Given the depth uncertainties of both this event and the megathrust, this implies that the earthquake most likely took place on the subduction interface rather than on the mapped faults in the Mad River fault zone that trend 322° and dip to the northeast. The revisited intensity in the epicentral region also supports a location beneath Fickle Hill to the east of the city of Arcata, California.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Evaluating mass flow meter measurements from chambers for greenhouse gas emissions from orphan wells and other point sources

This study evaluates the performance of a rigid gas flux chamber equipped with a mass flow meter (MFM) for measuring gas emissions from leaking orphan wells and similar pressure-driven gas point sources. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to evaluate the sensitivity, stability, and dynamic range of an MFM chamber system and found an optimal method for sealing the chamber to the ground to isolate the emission source. From these results, we estimate the effects of different soil gas permeabilities on measurements and identify the uncertainty of environmental processes that can impact measurements. Simulations of an MFM chamber are compared to those of a dynamic flux chamber to contrast the data derived with both methodologies and illustrate the potential for measuring high variability leaks with the MFM chamber. Using a low flow resistance MFM and a chamber well-sealed to the ground, it is possible to measure leaks down to 1.08 x 10 -3 cubic meters per hour (m 3 h −1 ) (refenced to 25°/1 atm), corresponding to 0.77 grams per hour (g h −1 ) methane or 2.11 g h −1 carbon dioxide, with a mean uncertainty of 0.89 % relative standard deviation. Environmental processes such as heated gas inside the chamber from solar gain, wind blowing across the chamber vent, and changing humidity in the chamber, can cause variation in MFM measurements. Over 11 d of continuous monitoring under varying weather conditions, the standard deviation of the environmentally sourced signals was found to be 7.40 x 10 -3 m 3 h −1 (equivalent to or 5.27 g h −1 methane or 14.45 g h −1 carbon dioxide). Strategies to obtain the highest quality data from MFM chambers include burying the edges of the chamber below the surface sufficiently deep to seal the chamber edges against gas flow and soaking the dirt with water to lower the chances of escaping gases, while monitoring the gas flow and adjusting the chamber seal to achieve a maximum flow rate.

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques↗
USGS2024

Separating signals in elevation data improves supervised machine learning predictions for hydrothermal favorability

A recent study identified topography (land surface elevation above sea level) as an important input dataset (feature) for predicting the location of hydrothermal systems in the Great Basin in Nevada. Yet, topography is generally a result of more than one geological process and may consequently contain multiple distinct signals. For example, the geologic evolution of the Great Basin has produced both crustal thickening (i.e., regional-scale trends in elevation) and thinning via Basin and Range extensional faulting (i.e., valley-scale topographic relief). We postulate that these geologic processes may affect the occurrence of hydrothermal systems differently. Therefore, we separate the regional trend from the valley-scale signal in the Great Basin, and then use them separately to evaluate the importance of each as predictors for hydrothermal favorability. Our prior work applying supervised machine learning (ML) using the data from the Nevada Machine Learning Project demonstrated that employing a training strategy that randomly selects negative training sites produces better performing models for predicting hydrothermal favorability than a training strategy that uses expert-selected negatives. The models created using both training strategies exhibited a west-east geographic trend in the predictions for the favorability of hydrothermal resources. These models generally predicted higher favorability in western Nevada and lower favorability in eastern Nevada. This west-east trend in predicted favorability correlates with elevation across the Great Basin, which trends higher from west to east. By separating the original elevation feature into distinct features for elevation trend (i.e., regional-scale topography) and detrended elevation (i.e., valley-scale or local relative topography), we find that models using the separated topographic signals consistently outperform competing models that use the original elevation feature. Although western Nevada still exhibits higher favorability than eastern Nevada, using separated signals for regional elevation and local structure reduces the west-east prediction trend in the region and emphasizes structures associated with hydrothermal upflow. This work emphasizes how carefully engineering features to represent geological conditions relevant to hydrothermal systems allows ML algorithms to detect important patterns for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability and leads to better model performance.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Methodology for inclusion of produced and stored carbon dioxide in the U.S. Geological Survey Federal lands greenhouse gas inventory

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed two new carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and sequestration accounting methods for use in future reports. The first method is a Federal lease-produced CO2 emissions calculation for an update of the report, “Federal Lands Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sequestration in the United States.” The methodology to incorporate Federal lease CO2 production emissions into the updated report relies on CO2 sales royalty data from the Office of Natural Resources Revenue (ONRR). The end usage points for the gas include enhanced oil recovery with CO2 (CO2-EOR), food and beverage, and chemical production. CO2-EOR is the main end point for natural CO2 production in the United States; it accounted for 94% of usage in 2022 [1]. Federal lands emissions from this sector are estimated at 460 metric tons of CO2 in 2022, a very small amount relative to most other Federal lands emissions sector estimates. The second new method, planned for a separate report, is a calculation of the geologic storage of CO2 on Federal lands. The second method estimates the CO2 stored under Federal surface lands and documents Federal climate change mitigation efforts. Currently, there is no storage of CO2 at an industrial level on Federal lands, however multiple proposals and projects are planned. This method was developed on non-Federal lands datasets in an effort to prepare for when these activities on Federal lands will require accounting. National estimates for CO2 geologic storage using this method, but without a Federal lands filtering step, totaled 8.0 million metric tons (Mt) in 2022. The two methods described here are new benchmark methods in a collection of accounting procedures to document the current state of greenhouse gas emissions and their storage on Federal lands. These benchmarks can then be used to measure any subsequent changes in emissions from or carbon storage beneath Federal lands. While the magnitude of the values is currently non-existent to small, emissions mitigation goals established by decision makers indicate that these values will grow, and their documentation will take on greater value and use.

continental United States↗
USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Oligocene–Miocene northward growth of the Tibetan Plateau: Insights from intermontane basins in the West Qinling Belt, NW China

Growth of the Tibetan Plateau, Earth’s broadest and highest elevation collisional system, shapes orographic barriers, reorganizes drainage networks, and influences surface erosion and sediment delivery, whose changes in space and provenance feed back to intracontinental tectonic processes. Studies of interior basins within the northern Tibetan Plateau provide new sediment accumulation, provenance, paleodrainage, and deformation timing data that enable a reconstruction of the far-field tectono-geomorphic evolution of the rising Tibetan Plateau. Along the northern plateau margin, topographic growth in the West Qinling Belt is inferred to have initiated in the Eocene, nearly coeval with the India-Asia collision, as well as in the late Miocene. However, geological knowledge about the intervening period remains at present enigmatic, and the kinematics and dynamics are uncertain. This study presents a multidisciplinary data set from the intermontane Anhua-Huicheng Basin (AHB; Gansu Province, China) to fill this gap. Magnetostratigraphic dating, regional mapping, and sedimentological analysis imply that contractional deformation and thrust-top basin systems formed within the West Qinling Belt in the Oligocene (not later than ca. 24 Ma). A combination of observations including paleocurrent changes, detrital zircon U-Pb age variations, and appearance of growth strata along the Anhua-Huicheng Basin reveal the rapid uplift of the West Qinling Belt at ca. 15 Ma. Sedimentation in the intermontane basins ended after the late Miocene (ca. 8 Ma), when the region experienced intrabasinal deformation, uplift, and erosion with the establishment of an external drainage system. Since the late Miocene, the growth of the West Qinling Belt reached a climax with the lack of substantial contractional deformation in Cenozoic sequences heralding the onset of the modern kinematic regime and attainment of high elevation. Observed transitions in the tectonostratigraphy and paleodrainage define different phases of deformation and plateau-wide shifts in stress reorganization, which led to the northward growth and later lateral expansion of the Tibetan Plateau.

GSA Bulletin↗
USGS2025

Insights and strategic opportunities from the USGS 2024 Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Interagency Workshop

Introduction In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Circular 1490 titled, “Integrated Science for the Study of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in the Environment: A Strategic Science Vision for the U.S. Geological Survey” (Tokranov and others, 2021). Circular 1490 was created to be a resource for USGS scientists prioritizing and planning research related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and to be a guide for developing partnerships with other scientists, State and Federal agencies, and stakeholders engaged in PFAS research and management and mitigation of the environmental and human-health effects of PFAS. This USGS PFAS Strategic Science Vision document was intended to be the foundation for a “living strategic vision,” periodically providing updates on the state of USGS PFAS research, emerging PFAS data gaps and needs, and progress on interagency and stakeholder PFAS partnerships and priorities. To meet this objective, the USGS planned to host an Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop every 2–3 years. During September 10–12, 2024, the USGS hosted the first Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The Workshop brought together experts from other Federal agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Food and Drug Administration, Department of Defense [Air Force, Army]), State agencies (Washington Fish and Wildlife, Virginia Department of Transportation), and academia (Harvard University, University of Maryland) to address key challenges relating to the measurement and modeling of PFAS and the implications for environmental health. Participants engaged in in-depth discussions centered around six pivotal topics related to PFAS: (1) sampling protocols, methods and interpretation; (2) environmental sources, source apportionment, and occurrence; (3) environmental fate and transport; (4) human and wildlife exposure routes and risk; (5) bioconcentration, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification; and (6) ecotoxicology and effects. Each topic had three breakout sessions. A recurrent theme of workshop discussions was how data on a nationwide scale for PFAS occurrence in various environmental matrices, including air, water, food crops, biota, soil, and streambed sediment could help to advance scientific understanding. Participants noted significant geospatial data gaps, particularly in the midwestern and southern United States and the Pacific Northwest. PFAS data collection tends to be more robust along the eastern seaboard and in California. Participants stressed how enhancing the integration of large and small datasets across various agencies could help to support national scale understanding of PFAS. To address these gaps, attendees suggested leveraging datasets from Federal entities like the USGS and the U.S. Department of Defense, State agencies, and municipal utility services to develop predictive contaminant detection and transport models. Improved coordination between water quality programs and USGS research could help to facilitate access to valuable data, leading to comprehensive databases that inform PFAS point (wastewater treatment plants and landfills) and nonpoint (runoff from land, atmospheric deposition, food packaging) sources, environmental transport mechanisms, environmental detection and concentrations, potential exposure routes, and health effects on different biota, including humans. A specific request was made to develop a map demarking the depth of modern (1953 or later) groundwater, which is susceptible to surface-derived anthropogenic (that is, human-made) contamination, based on tritium-age dating. Emphasis was placed on incorporation of hydrology, groundwater flow paths, groundwater–surface water interactions, and landscape factors in predictive statistical models as a step to improve contaminant source identification and tracking. Molecular fingerprinting approaches garnered attention as techniques to link specific PFAS mixtures detected in a sample to environmental sources and levels in biota (Dávila-Santiago and others, 2022). Integrating data from abiotic (that is, water, soil, and air) and biotic (that is, living organisms) systems identified as a research opportunity. For example, understanding the composition of soils and sediments, which include a mixture of mineral, plant, and animal components, could advance understanding of exposure pathways. The discussions highlighted opportunities to explore and understand the potential redistribution and biotic exposures of PFAS from biosolid and wastewater treatment plant effluent land application practices, in addition to atmospheric releases and discharges from landfill and wastewater treatment plants. Participants identified research gaps surrounding how these sources may contribute to contamination and may affect surrounding ecosystems, including a better definition of anthropogenic background concentrations. Moving forward, the collection of co-occurrence data was noted as a means to improve understanding of complex mixtures and to leverage companion modeling efforts focused on areas with high and low contamination levels to identify areas of concern and unaffected resources. Participants emphasized how centralized USGS databases and the establishment of sample-metadata archives can help to ensure that samples are preserved and accessible for future research. In conclusion, the workshop participants identified opportunities to bridge data gaps and improve measurement techniques, modeling frameworks, databases, and communication, to enhance the understanding of PFAS and their effects on environmental and human health. Upon completion of the workshop, participants indicated an interest in developing strategic data collection, modeling, and analytical approaches to address these challenges.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Forecasting volcanic activity in Germany—A multi-criteria approach

Igneous activity, including shallow intrusions and volcanism, has the potential to disrupt underground critical infrastructure. Notably, future underground infrastructure projects like high-level radioactive waste repositories must be sited in areas of extremely low disruption probability by igneous activity. In Germany, according to the Repository Site Selection Act of 2017 (Standortauswahlgesetz, or StandAG), areas in which Quaternary volcanism is either present or future volcanic activity is expected within the next 1 million years (m.y.) must be excluded from the site selection process. Although the locations of regions with Quaternary volcanism are reasonably well known in Germany, forecasting potential igneous activity at intraplate volcanic fields is challenging, as many processes and their interactions control the spatial distribution of volcanic centers. Here, a semi-quantitative, multi-criteria approach is proposed for a regional evaluation of the relative potential of future igneous activity in Germany. A variety of geoscientific indicators are used, including seismic anomalies in Earth’s mantle, gravity data, tectonic activity, sutures, ground motion, earthquakes, mantle degassing centers, and geochronological data of volcanic rocks. The indicators describe the sequence of processes from potential melt generation in Earth’s mantle, through ascent and accumulation of melt within the lithosphere, to eruption at Earth’s surface. In total, 15 out of 30 proposed geoscientific indicators are selected and quantified using 20 total assigned parameters. Defined threshold values are used to spatially delimit relevant parameter properties to focus on areas with higher potential of future magmatic activity. To consider uncertainties of parameters and their underlying processes, which are usually more spatially extensive below ground, buffer zones are defined in which values of relevance decrease with increasing distance from the initial lateral shape of a parameter. Normalized parameters are combined into an index, whose spatial value distribution is used to differentiate the relative potential of future igneous activity (within the next 1 m.y.). The sensitivity of the results is shown by varying the weighting factors for the relevant parameters in country-wide index maps. Thereby, profiles illustrate the distribution of the resulting index values and respective index fractions of various parameters. Different index maps for the relative potential of future igneous activity are presented and can be used for hazard assessments.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2025

Exploration for blind geothermal systems in the eastern Great Basin of Utah: An update on the “Lund North” INGENIOUS detailed study site

Existing geothermal production in Utah is commonly collocated with surficial expressions of geothermal heat including active hot springs and hot spring deposits. However, geothermal potential across the Great Basin region is thought to be much higher for hidden or blind geothermal systems. Accordingly, exploration techniques that can locate geothermal resources that lack surface thermal features could support future development of these systems. The goal of the INGENIOUS project is to reduce exploration risk and discover new, economically viable hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region. This paper summarizes the efforts and preliminary results of blind geothermal resource prospecting in Utah as part of the larger INGENIOUS project. The Lund North site in the Basin and Range province of southwest Utah was designated as the fourth detailed study site for the project. The site was initially identified from the preliminary Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) geothermal favorability map, which is based on various data elements, and the identification of favorable structural settings across Utah. This site contains existing legacy data including a thermal gradient borehole with a heat-flow value exceeding 220 mW/m 2 . New data collected at this site include terrestrial gravity, magnetotellurics, transient electromagnetics, fluid geochemistry, geologic mapping, UAV-based lidar, paleomagnetism, aeromagnetic surveys, and a shallow temperature survey. Preliminary data and model interpretations corroborate the presence of a large, east-dipping, northeast-southwest-trending normal fault on the edge of a typical Basin and Range graben. Quaternary fault mapping refined by high-resolution lidar surveys suggests a complex step over fault geometry. Utilizing multi-disciplinary datasets for further site assessment at Lund North will facilitate the development of a local-scale PFA and geothermal conceptual model. This new data will be used to site successive thermal gradient drilling to verify heat flow with temperatures at depth at the Lund North site and further investigate the existence of a local geothermal system.

Utah↗
USGS1995

Water quality of the Boca Raton canal system and effects of the Hillsboro Canal inflow, southeastern Florida, 1990-91

The City of Boca Raton in southeastern Palm Beach County, Florida, is an urban residential area that has sustained a constant population growth with subsequent increase in water use. The Boca Raton network of canals is controlled to provide for drainage of excess water, to maintain proper coastal ground-water levels to prevent saltwater intrusion, and to recharge the surficial aquifer system from which the city withdraws potable water. Most of the water supplied to the Boca Raton canal system and the surficial aquifer system, other than rainfall and runoff, is pumped from the Hillsboro Canal. The Biscayne aquifer, principal hydrogeologic unit of the surficial aquifer system, is highly permeable and there is a close relation between water levels in the canals and the aquifer. The amount of water supplied by seepage from the conservation areas is unknown. Because the Hillsboro Canal flows from Lake Okeechobee and Water Conservation Areas 1 and 2, which are places of more highly mineralized ground water and surface water, the canal is a possible source of contamination. Water samples were collected at 10 canal sites during wet and dry seasons and analyzed for major inorganic ions and related characteristics, nutrients, and trace elements. All concentrations were generally within or less than the drinking-water standards established by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. The high concentrations of sodium and chloride that were detected in samples from the Boca Raton canal system are probably from the more mineralized water of the Hillsboro Canal. Other water-quality data, gathered from various sources from 1982 through 1991, did not indicate any significant changes nor trends. The data include pesticide and metal analyses of water samples and bottom sediments collected at four canal sites in the Boca Raton study area by the U.S. Geological Survey during 1982-84. The effects of the Hillsboro Canal on the water quality of the Boca Raton canal system are indicated by increased concentrations of sodium, chloride, dissolved solids, and total organic carbon. Concentrations of the constituents in the canal water generally decrease with distance from the Hillsboro Canal pumping station and are the result of dilution by receiving canal waters.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Using stable oxygen isotope dual-inlet isotope-ratio mass spectrometry to elucidate uranium transport and mixed 230Th/U calcite formation ages at the seminal Devils Hole, Nevada, natural laboratory

Rationale Vein calcite in Devils Hole has been precipitating continuously in oxygen-isotope equilibrium at a constant temperature for over 500 000 years, providing an unmatched δ 18 O paleoclimate time series. A substantial issue is that coeval calcite (based on matching δ 18 O values) has uranium-series ages differing by 12 000 years. Methods An unparalleled high-accuracy δ 18 O chronology series from continuously submerged calcite was used to correct the published uranium-series ages of non-continuously formed calcite in two cores, cyclically exposed by water-table decline during glacial–interglacial transitions. This method relies on the premise that the δ 18 O values of coevally precipitated calcite are identical, allowing matching calcite δ 18 O values to establish formation ages. Results Exposed calcite can have apparent ages that are 12 000 years too young due to unrecognized uranium mobility and resulting mixed ages identified in over 50 mixed uranium-series ages from previous studies. Secondary uranium in fluids, sourced from the formation or dissolution of porous carbonate deposits (folia) with high uranium-238 ( 238 U) concentrations, has migrated up to 10 mm into vein calcite. Conclusions The continuously submerged Devils Hole δ 18 O chronology is not explained by orbital forcing. Rather, this chronology represents a regional climate record in the southern Great Basin of sea-surface-temperature (SST) variations off California, variations that preceded the last and penultimate deglaciations by 5000 to approximately 10 000 years. Temporal discrepancies between the continuously submerged Devils Hole chronology and other regional δ 18 O records (e.g., the Leviathan chronology) can be explained by unrecognized cryptic, pernicious uranium mobility, leading to model estimations that may be thousands of years younger than actual ages. Consequently, paleo-moisture availability, water-table, and groundwater recharge models based on these mixed uranium-series ages are too young by as much as 12 000 years. The potential for post-formation uranium addition in subaerial cores and speleothems underscores the need for caution in uranium-series dating, highlighting δ 18 O time-series comparisons as a method for identifying mixed ages.

Nevada↗
USGS2026

Comparative assessment of STIC sensors, streamflow and rain gauges for quantifying river connectivity in intermittent systems

In intermittent stream systems, including those occurring in Texas, USA, the severity of low-flow conditions, duration of seasonal disconnection, and frequency of no-flow events have been amplified by drought. Documentation of these no-flow events is necessary to evaluate ecosystem health. However, many intermittent reaches remain un-gauged given that perennial river sec-tions are often prioritized for gauge placement. Our objectives were to 1) document stream flow using Stream Temperature, Intermittency, and Conductivity (STIC) loggers to determine the frequency and duration of no-flow events in intermittent tributaries of the Colorado River, Texas and 2) compare logger data to publicly available data from streamflow discharge and precipitation gauge networks to understand differences among these data types for drying event characterization. We use these comparisons to summarize benefits and limitations of the application of in-stream data loggers. STIC loggers were deployed at 19 sites, one in each pool and riffle habitat of a stream reach. STIC loggers recorded a measurement of relative conductance every six hours from June 2022 to March 2024, which was used to determine the presence or absence of flow connectivity in a reach. No-flow duration among intermittent reaches varied between 37 and 270 days across tributaries during an ongoing drought in the study area. Overall, logger data was more precise than discharge data for characterizing no-flow events or precipitation data when documenting presence of water in the stream channel due to runoff. Lack of discharge gauges in intermittent tributaries left large sections of stream reaches undocumented and resulted in mischaracterization of flow patterns. Drought severity across the tributaries did not follow longitudinal patterns that would be expected by the climatic precipitation gradient of the study area. More research is needed to determine if factors such as population size affect severity. Likewise, precipitation data did not correlate well with logger water presence data, lacking consideration for groundwater recharge, soil hydrophobicity, and surface compaction. This study shows that to monitor no-flow events, detailed spatial datasets are necessary and that STIC loggers are useful tools that provide data to fill spatial information gaps and facilitate more accurate flow characterization and water presence data in intermittent systems.

Texas↗
USGS2025

Reduction of red bed sedimentary rocks in connection with energy metal ore formation: A case study from the Sinbad seep, Mesa County, Colorado

The Paradox Basin’s Sinbad seep is a modern analog for ancient bleaching of red bed sediments by introduced alkaline, reducing brines. This bleaching, involving reductive alteration of former red beds, is essential ground preparation that enables the altered rocks to trap Cu, U, and V from later oxidized fluids, forming ore deposits. Study of Sinbad thus offers insights into these metallic mineralization processes in the Paradox and other sedimentary basins. The Sinbad seep occurs where shallow groundwater interacts with organic-rich petroleum source rocks, flows up a fault, and discharges into Salt Creek. Ratios of Na/Cl, Na/Br, and Cl/Br, plus high sulfate concentrations, indicate that the salinity of the seep water originated from dissolution of halite and gypsum during topographically driven flow of meteoric water across a diapir of the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation, rather than from deep basinal brines. In contact with the organic-rich shales of the Paradox, these SO 4 -rich waters become reduced through bacterial reduction, producing H 2 S. The waters react with red beds of the Permian Cutler Formation, causing pervasive bleaching. The bleaching at Sinbad is characterized by iron-conservative reduction of ferric iron in diagenetic hematite and detrital ilmenite and magnetite to Fe sulfides. The ferrous iron is retained in these sulfides likely as sorbed Fe. Associated alteration includes precipitation of quartz and feldspar overgrowths, partial dissolution of detrital quartz and feldspar caused by pressure solution, formation of clay and authigenic rutile, and precipitation of carbonate and gypsum. The Fe sulfides rapidly degenerate to a mixture of jarosite and iron oxides on weathering at the surface. Among the major-oxide elements and most trace elements, there is no statistical difference between unbleached and bleached samples. The exceptions are uranium and sulfur, which are somewhat greater in bleached samples. Fission track radiography illuminates that uranium is preferentially concentrated in iron oxide cements, iron sorbed into detrital clasts, and finely disseminated iron oxide in illite cement in bleached samples. A leaching experiment suggests that uranium may be more easily available for mobilization from rocks that have undergone bleaching alteration, making them potential U sources. In addition, bleached rocks form effective traps for U, V, and some Cu mineralization.

Colorado↗
USGS2000

Estimating the probability of elevated nitrate (NO2+NO3-N) concentrations in ground water in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area, Washington

Logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (man-made) and natural factors to the occurrence of elevated concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area, eastern Washington. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, depth of well casing, ground-water recharge rates, presence of canals, fertilizer application amounts, soils, surficial geology, and land-use types. The variables that best explain the occurrence of nitrate concentrations above 3 milligrams per liter in wells were the amount of fertilizer applied annually within a 2-kilometer radius of a well and the depth of the well casing; the variables that best explain the occurrence of nitrate above 10 milligrams per liter included the amount of fertilizer applied annually within a 3-kilometer radius of a well, the depth of the well casing, and the mean soil hydrologic group, which is a measure of soil infiltration rate. Based on the relations between these variables and elevated nitrate concentrations, models were developed using logistic regression that predict the probability that ground water will exceed a nitrate concentration of either 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter. Maps were produced that illustrate the predicted probability that ground-water nitrate concentrations will exceed 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter for wells cased to 78 feet below land surface (median casing depth) and the predicted depth to which wells would need to be cased in order to have an 80-percent probability of drawing water with a nitrate concentration below either 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter. Maps showing the predicted probability for the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations indicate that the irrigated agricultural regions are most at risk. The predicted depths to which wells need to be cased in order to have an 80-percent chance of obtaining low nitrate ground water exceed 600 feet in the irrigated agricultural regions, whereas wells in dryland agricultural areas generally need a casing in excess of 400 feet. The predicted depth to which wells need to be cased to have at least an 80-percent chance to draw water with a nitrate concentration less than 10 milligrams per liter generally did not exceed 800 feet, with a 200-foot casing depth typical of the majority of the area.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Collaborative drought science planning in the Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using collaborative, interdisciplinary planning to develop data and tools needed to optimize the management of water resources and land use by resource management agencies during an ongoing, multidecadal drought in the Colorado River Basin. The USGS Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team works to build relationships with resource management agencies and other stakeholders who can benefit from the use of USGS data and products. In 2023, the Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team hosted a series of collaborative workshops to bring together representatives of resource management agencies and other stakeholders (any person or entity with interests in a resource or location) with USGS program managers, scientists, and multidisciplinary subject matter experts to codevelop concepts for interdisciplinary drought science and technology projects to address pressing needs related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. Workshop participants identified current and recent scientific data that could be shared through a centralized online data portal. Workshop participants also identified drought science and technology needs and developed project concepts to address those science needs. Participants categorized project concepts based on their potential to develop short-, mid-, and long-term drought science data and tools, provide for the spatial or temporal expansion of ongoing USGS science projects, and address high-priority science needs. Participants developed nine project concepts: (1) understanding shifting ecohydrologic baselines, (2) San Juan River Basin synthesis, (3) incorporating dynamic land cover into hydrologic models, (4) aridification compared to drought, (5) surface water-groundwater interactions, (6) cascading effects of drought on dust, (7) cascading effects of drought on water availability, (8) cascading effects of drought on socioeconomic factors, and (9) the value of water in the Colorado River Basin. This report provides an overview of the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series, synthesized outcomes from workshop materials and discussions, and science project concepts that emerged from the collaborative meetings that will continue to be refined into science project proposals through codevelopment processes. This report also highlights lessons learned and next steps needed to receive feedback and testing of the USGS Science Collaboration Portal, continue collaboration to develop detailed specifics and steps for short-term wins, develop interdisciplinary project proposals, and implement science planning and studies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2026

Hydrologic investigation of water level fluctuations at Moreau Lake, Moreau Lake State Park, town of Moreau, New York

The causes of water level fluctuations at Moreau Lake, within Moreau Lake State Park in the town of Moreau, New York, were investigated from 2016 to 2021 after lake water levels dropped between 2015 and 2016, raising concerns about the loss of a shallow swimming area at the park beach. Annual variation in precipitation records from the area did not account for the lake water level decline. Two possible causes for the low lake water levels were investigated: the increase in groundwater withdrawals from new residential development since about 2000 and seasonal changes (nongrowing and growing seasons) in precipitation. Investigation of the potential effects of nearby groundwater withdrawals required the compilation and collection of well-log data, seismic surveys, and measurements of lake and groundwater levels, field chemical parameters, and water isotopes to define the hydrogeologic system and to estimate water use. The net result of this work was the determination that Moreau Lake is a “flow though” lake with no surface water outlet; groundwater enters the lake on the upgradient side and exits through the downgradient side, however, groundwater does not flow southward from the lake toward nearby groundwater withdrawals from the semiconfined aquifer, and thus groundwater withdrawals were unlikely to have an effect on lake water levels. Investigation of the historic precipitation records during nongrowing (November through April) and growing (May through October) indicated that (1) nongrowing season precipitation from 2011–12 to 2015–16 was more deficient than any similar period during the past 78 years and (2) since about 2000, nongrowing seasons have been drier overall and growing seasons have been considerably wetter. Initiation of lake water level monitoring in 2016 provided an opportunity to compare seasonal precipitation with seasonal lake water level changes. Nongrowing season lake water levels are very sensitive to precipitation, such that high precipitation (40 percent above the seasonal median) resulted in a 5-foot rise in lake water level. In contrast, the growing season lake water levels are sensitive to dry conditions; for example, deficient rainfall (about 6 percent below the seasonal median) resulted in a decline of lake water levels of about 3.5 feet. However, lake water levels are insensitive to high growing season rainfall inputs (about 10 to 47 percent above the seasonal median); lake water levels consistently declined about by 0.8 feet above this range of seasonal excessive precipitation.

New York↗
USGS2024

Inset groundwater-flow models for the Cache and Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Areas, northeastern Arkansas

The water resources in the Mississippi alluvial plain, located in parts of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, supports a multibillion-dollar agricultural industry that relies heavily on pumping of groundwater for irrigation of crops and aquaculture. The primary source of groundwater for agricultural-related pumping is the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, which has declined in storage for decades; secondary groundwater sources include the middle Claiborne aquifer and Wilcox aquifer system. Two areas in northeastern Arkansas that lie within the Mississippi alluvial plain, part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions, have been designated as Critical Groundwater Areas owing to decades of groundwater declines that resulted from past and current water use. The multidisciplinary Mississippi Alluvial Plain project, led by the U.S. Geological Survey, and funded by their Water Availability and Use Science Program, included objectives to develop numerical groundwater models in focus regions, including the part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of northeastern Arkansas. Two inset models were developed using the child model capabilities of MODFLOW 6, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Modular Hydrologic Model simulation software. Both models, called the Cache model and Grand Prairie model, simulated the groundwater system and surface-water/groundwater interactions for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and underlying Tertiary-age aquifers and confining units to the Midway confining unit. Each model was spatially discretized into 500-meter x 500-meter orthogonal cells on a grid with 5-meter constant-thickness vertical layers that represented the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and increasing thickness layers for the aquifers and confining units below the alluvial aquifer. The Cache and Grand Prairie models were calibrated with the PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother Version 5 and employed high dimensional parameterization schemes of 13,740 and 30,436 parameters, respectively. The Cache mean absolute residual for groundwater-level observations within each model domain for the priority well was 1.58 meters. Grand Prairie mean absolute residuals for the alluvial aquifer and middle Claiborne aquifer groundwater-level observations were 2.71 and 10.78 meters, respectively. The groundwater budgets for the Cache and Grand Prairie models were characterized by substantial outflows to irrigation wells, which constituted about 52 and 54 percent of all outflows, with the primary source of water to those wells being releases from unconfined aquifer storage.

Arkansas↗
USGS2024

Land-use interactions, Oil-Field infrastructure, and natural processes control hydrocarbon and arsenic concentrations in groundwater, Poso Creek Oil Field, California, USA

Like many hydrocarbon production areas in the U.S., the Poso Creek Oil Field in California includes and is adjacent to other land uses (agricultural and other developed lands) that affect the hydrology and geochemistry of the aquifer overlying and adjacent to oil development. We hypothesize that the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater in such areas will be controlled by complex interactions between mixed land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes. In 2020–2021, samples of groundwater and surface water were collected and analyzed for a large suite of inorganic and organic chemicals and isotope and gas tracers to test this hypothesis. Those data are supplemented with ancillary data on historical geochemistry, hydrology, geology, and oil-field infrastructure. Hydrocarbons in groundwater (e.g., methane through pentane gases and benzene) are associated with natural processes (e.g., fault offsets or transition in sediment depositional environment) and oil-field infrastructure (e.g., fluid-migration pathways associated with uncemented annulus in oil wells or unlined pits). Arsenic concentrations >10 μg per liter (μg/L; maximum concentration 12.9 μg/L) are associated with natural processes in old, high-pH groundwater, and more recent recharge of water from natural and/or engineered recharge processes. Along the southwest margin of the oil field, pumping for drinking-water and irrigation supplies in combination with engineered groundwater recharge produce a depression in groundwater elevations where groundwater with elevated sulfate concentrations from agricultural areas and groundwater with hydrocarbons from the oil field mix to produce a zone of sulfate reduction that removes hydrocarbons and arsenic from groundwater but produces elevated sulfide (S 2- ) concentrations (maximum concentration 29 mg per liter, mg/L). In this study, multiple approaches were required to resolve the overlapping effects of land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes on the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater. The combined use of geographic, historical, physical, chemical, isotopic, and other information to constrain processes could be a useful approach for studies in other hydrocarbon-production areas. This is particularly important where land uses affect aquifer hydrology to an extent that causes mixing of groundwaters with different chemical compositions.

California↗