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USGS1995

Effect of seasonal and long-term changes in stress on sources of water to wells

The source of water to wells is ultimately the location where the water flowing to a well enters the boundary surface of the ground-water system . In ground-water systems that receive most of their water from areal recharge, the location of the water entering the system is at the water table . The area contributing recharge to a discharging well is the surface area that defines the location of the water entering the groundwater system. Water entering the system at the water table flows to the well and is eventually discharged from the well. Many State agencies are currently (1994) developing wellhead-protection programs. The thrust of some of these programs is to protect water supplies by determining the areas contributing recharge to water-supply wells and by specifying regulations to minimize the opportunity for contamination of the recharge water by activities at the land surface. In the analyses of ground-water flow systems, steady-state average conditions are frequently used to simplify the problem and make a solution tractable. Recharge is usually cyclic in nature, however, having seasonal cycles and longer term climatic cycles. A hypothetical system is quantitatively analyzed to show that, in many cases, these cyclic changes in the recharge rates apparently do not significantly affect the location and size of the areas contributing recharge to wells. The ratio of the mean travel time to the length of the cyclic stress period appears to indicate whether the transient effects of the cyclic stress must be explicitly represented in the analysis of contributing areas to wells. For the cases examined, if the ratio of the mean travel time to the period of the cyclic stress was much greater than one, then the transient area contributing recharge to wells was similar to the area calculated using an average steady-state condition. Noncyclic long-term transient changes in water use, however, and cyclic stresses on systems with ratios less than 1 can and do affect the location and size of the areas contributing recharge to wells.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2014

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2018

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

Hydrological alteration, which may be exacerbated by climate change, is known to facilitate aquatic species invasion. Altered hydrology, invasive species, and the additive effects of these stressors pose a threat to aquatic biodiversity. Understanding extinction risk in the context of these stressors is crucial for prioritizing conservation efforts. As case studies, three narrow‐ranged endemic crayfish species of conservation concern ( Faxonius marchandi , Faxonius roberti , and Cambarus hubbsi ) in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri, USA, were used to examine the effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to model the population dynamics of these imperilled species, assess how these populations may be affected under increased invasion effects and intensified drought, determine potential refuge effects, and examine the sensitivity of quasi‐extinction to model parameters. ramas‐metapop was used to construct stage‐based demographic models. Terminal extinction risk, median time to quasi‐extinction, and metapopulation occupancy were used to assess population viability under different scenarios. Cambarus hubbsi appears to be highly susceptible to decline if survival rates are reduced by simulated drought, as they have low reproductive potential and mature slowly. Models indicated that potential refuges allow F. roberti and C. hubbsi to persist, even when invasion and drought effects were extreme. Conversely, barriers to dispersal for F. marchandi led to reduced quasi‐extinction times and the greatest extinction risk under most invasion scenarios. Quasi‐extinction was most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival for all species examined, which indicates that improved estimates of stage‐specific demographic parameters for crayfish will improve model predictions. An increased understanding of the mechanisms of displacement of native crayfish by invasive crayfish is needed for most crayfish species. Limiting the spread of invasive species, maintaining natural habitat and hydrological regimes, and gaining insight into life histories and demographic parameters will increase the ability to conserve endemic and imperilled crayfish.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2025

Hydroclimatic and land-use factors affecting peak streamflow in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗

USGS2011

Application of a watershed model (HSPF) for evaluating sources and transport of pathogen indicators in the Chino Basin drainage area, San Bernardino County, California

A watershed model using Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was developed for the urbanized Chino Basin in southern California to simulate the transport of pathogen indicator bacteria, evaluate the flow-component and land-use contributions to bacteria contamination and water-quality degradation throughout the basin, and develop a better understanding of the potential effects of climate and land-use change on water quality. The calibration of the model for indicator bacteria was supported by historical data collected before this study and by samples collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from targeted land-use areas during storms in water-year 2004. The model was successfully calibrated for streamflow at 5 gage locations representing the Chino Creek and Mill Creek drainages. Although representing pathogens as dissolved constituents limits the model's ability to simulate the transport of pathogen indicator bacteria, the bacteria concentrations measured over the period 1998-2004 were well represented by the simulated concentrations for most locations. Hourly concentrations were more difficult to predict because of high variability in measured bacteria concentrations. In general, model simulations indicated that the residential and commercial land uses were the dominant sources for most of the pathogen indicator bacteria during low streamflows. However, simulations indicated that land used for intensive livestock (dairies and feedlots) and mixed agriculture contributed the most bacteria during storms. The calibrated model was used to evaluate how various land use, air temperature, and precipitation scenarios would affect flow and transport of bacteria. Results indicated that snow pack formation and melt were sensitive to changes in air temperature in the northern, mountainous part of the Chino Basin, causing the timing and magnitude of streamflow to shift in the natural drainages and impact the urbanized areas of the central Chino Basin. The relation between bacteria concentrations and air temperature was more complicated, and did not substantially affect the quality of water discharging from the Chino Basin into the Santa Ana River. Changes in precipitation had a greater basin-wide affect on bacteria concentrations than changes in air temperature, and varied according to location. Drainages representing natural conditions had a decrease in bacteria concentrations in correlation with an increase in precipitation, whereas drainages in the central and southern part of the Chino Basin had an increase in bacteria concentrations. Drier climate conditions tended to result in higher sensitivity of simulated bacteria concentrations to changes in precipitation. Simulated bacteria concentrations in wetter climates were usually less sensitive to changes in precipitation because bacteria transport becomes more dependent on the land-use specified bacteria loading rates and the storage limits. Bacteria contamination from impervious-area runoff is affected to a greater degree by drier climates, whereas contamination from pervious-area runoff is affected to a greater degree by wetter climates. Model results indicated that the relation between precipitation, runoff, and bacteria contamination is complicated because after the initial bacteria washoff and transport from the land surfaces during the beginning of a storm period, subsequent runoff has fewer bacteria available for washoff, which then dilutes the concentrations of bacteria in the downstream reach. It was illustrated that pathogen indicator bacteria transport depends most significantly on the relation of imperviousness to runoff, which controls the frequency, and often the magnitude, of transport, and on the contribution of higher bacteria loading rates used for pervious land areas, especially intensive feedlots, to the infrequent, but very high, peaks of bacteria contamination. The indicator bacteria transport model for the Chino Basin was based on the assumption that no

California↗

USGS2023

An integrated hydrologic model to support the Central Platte Natural Resources District Groundwater Management Plan, central Nebraska

The groundwater and surface-water supply of the Central Platte Natural Resources District supports a large agricultural economy from the High Plains aquifer and Platte River, respectively. This study provided the Central Platte Natural Resources District with an advanced numerical modeling tool to assist with the update of their Groundwater Management Plan. An integrated hydrologic model, called the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model, was constructed using the MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Model code with the Newton solver. This code integrates climate, landscape, surface water, and groundwater-flow processes in a fully coupled approach. Model framework included 163 rows; 327 columns; 2,640 feet cell sides; and 3 vertical layers. A predevelopment model simulated steady-state hydrologic conditions prior to April 30, 1895, and a development period model discretized into 610 stress periods simulated transient hydrologic conditions from May 1, 1895, to December 31, 2016, using 170 biannual stress periods from 1895 to 1980, and monthly stress periods from May 1, 1980, to December 31, 2016. Calibration of the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model involved two phases: a manual adjustment of parameters, followed by the automated calibration completed using BeoPEST that was facilitated by the employment of the singular value decomposition-assist features of PEST that specified 50 super parameters assembled from the 435 adjustable parameters and Tikhonov regularization. The average absolute groundwater-level residuals for model layers one, two, and three were 6.1, 12.4, and 7.4 feet, respectively. Calibrated horizontal hydraulic conductivity was about 70, 32, and 35 feet per day for layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The largest development period inflow to groundwater was recharge from deep percolation past the root zone, averaging 1,122,257 acre-feet per year (2.7 inches per year), and the largest outflow was to irrigation wells, averaging 693,171 acre-feet per year (10.2 inches per year for the Central Platte Natural Resources District). Other substantial groundwater outflows included evapotranspiration and base flow. For the total development period, there was a net change in storage of −122,393 acre-feet per year (−0.3 inch per year). The calibrated Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model was used to simulate eight different potential future climate and irrigation pumping conditions from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2049. Simulated future groundwater levels within the Central Platte Natural Resources District varied significantly between scenarios and locally, from 13.8 feet below to 7.6 feet above baseline 1982 groundwater levels. Most areas exhibited groundwater-level declines for the drought scenarios and rises for the alternate irrigation scenarios. Changes in scenario groundwater levels correlated with the relations between farm net recharge and irrigation pumping. Linear “first order second moment” techniques indicated that the uncertainty in projected groundwater altitudes was reduced by 15.33 feet through model calibration.

Nebraska↗

USGS2009

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise— A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation. The SAP also outlines the policy context in the mid-Atlantic region and describes the implications of sea-level rise impacts for other regions of the United States. Finally, this SAP discusses ways natural and social science research can improve understanding and prediction of potential impacts to aid planning and decision making. Projections of sea-level rise for the twenty-first century vary widely, ranging from several centimeters to more than a meter. Rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Existing elevation data for the mid-Atlantic United States do not provide the degree of confidence needed for local decision making. Systematic nationwide collection of high-resolution elevation data would improve the ability to conduct detailed assessments in support of planning. The coastal zone is dynamic and the response of coastal areas to sea-level rise is more complex than simple inundation. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. All these changes will affect coastal habitats and species. Increasing population and development in coastal areas also affects the ability of natural ecosystems to adjust to sea-level rise. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to coastal hazards by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses. Shoreline armoring can eliminate the land along the shore to which the public has access; beach nourishment projects often increase access to the shore. Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, longlived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the implicit assumption that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises. The prospect of accelerated sea-level rise and increased vulnerability in coastal regions underscores the immediate need for improving our scientific understanding of and ability to predict the effects of sea-level rise on natural systems and society. These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise.

Report↗

USGS2011

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Greater Horn of Africa↗

USGS2019

Predicting hydrologic disturbance of streams using species occurrence data

Aquatic organisms have adapted over evolutionary time-scales to hydrologic variability represented by the natural flow regime of rivers and streams in their unimpaired state. Rapid landscape change coupled with growing human demand for water have altered natural flow regimes of many rivers and streams on a global scale. Climate non-stationarity is expected to further intensify hydrologic variability, placing increased pressure on aquatic communities. Using a machine learning approach and georeferenced species occurrence data, we modeled and mapped spatial patterns of hydrologic disturbance for streams in Arkansas, Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma. Random forest (RF) models trained on fish community data, hydrologic, and landscape metrics for gaged streams in the National Hydrography (NHDPlusV2) database were used to predict a hydrologic disturbance index (HDI) for ungaged streams. The HDI is part of the USGS Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGESII) database and is a composite index of watershed-scale disturbance from anthropogenic stressors. Fish presence/absence data had similar overall model prediction accuracy (77%; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.80) as flow variables (76%; CI: 0.73, 0.80). Including topographic variables increased the RF prediction accuracy of both the fish (90%; CI: 0.88, 0.92) and flow models (86%; CI: 0.84, 0.89). Spatial patterns of hydrologic disturbance suggest distinct ecohydrological regions exist where conservation actions may be focused. Streams with low HDI were predominately located in the Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, and Ouachita Mountains. Correlation analysis of HDI by flow regime showed groundwater stable streams had the lowest disturbance frequency, with over 50% of stream reaches with low HDI located in forested land cover. HDI was highest for big rivers, intermittent runoff streams and streams in areas of agricultural land use. Our results show long-term georeferenced biological data can provide a valuable resource for predictive modeling of hydrologic disturbance for ungaged rivers and streams.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2011

Biochar for soil fertility and natural carbon sequestration

Biochar is charcoal (similar to chars generated by forest fires) that is made for incorporation into soils to increase soil fertility while providing natural carbon sequestration. The incorporation of biochar into soils can preserve and enrich soils and also slow the rate at which climate change is affecting our planet. Studies on biochar, such as those cited by this report, are applicable to both fire science and soil science.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2010

Fort Collins Science Center-Fiscal year 2009 science accomplishments

Public land and natural resource managers in the United States are confronted with increasingly complex decisions that have important ramifications for both ecological and human systems. The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center?many of whom are at the forefront of their fields?possess a unique blend of ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise. Because of this diverse talent, Fort Collins Science Center staff are able to apply a systems approach to investigating complicated ecological problems in a way that helps answer critical management questions. In addition, the Fort Collins Science Center has a long record of working closely with the academic community through cooperative agreements and other collaborations. The Fort Collins Science Center is deeply engaged with other U.S. Geological Survey science centers and partners throughout the Department of the Interior. As a regular practice, we incorporate the expertise of these partners in providing a full complement of ?the right people? to effectively tackle the multifaceted research problems of today's resource-management world. In Fiscal Year 2009, the Fort Collins Science Center's scientific and technical professionals continued research vital to Department of the Interior's science and management needs. Fort Collins Science Center work also supported the science needs of other Federal and State agencies as well as non-government organizations. Specifically, Fort Collins Science Center research and technical assistance focused on client and partner needs and goals in the areas of biological information management and delivery, enterprise information, fisheries and aquatic systems, invasive species, status and trends of biological resources (including human dimensions), terrestrial ecosystems, and wildlife resources. In the process, Fort Collins Science Center science addressed natural-science information needs identified in the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy (http://www.usgs.gov/science_strategy), including understanding and predicting change in ecosystems, climate variability and change, energy development and land management, the role of the environment and wildlife in human health, freshwater ecosystems, data integration, and evolving technologies. Several science projects were expanded in Fiscal Year 2009 to meet these evolving needs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1982

Wetland hydrology and tree distribution of the Apalachicola River flood plain, Florida

The Apalachicola River in northwest Florida is part of a three-state drainage basin encompassing 50,800 square kilometers in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. The river is formed by the confluence of the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers at Jim Woodruff Dam from which it flows 171 kilometers to Apalachicola Bay in the Gulf of Mexico. Its average annual discharge at Chattahoochee, Florida, is 690 cubic meters per second (1958-80) with annual high flows averaging nearly 3,000 cubic meters per second. Its flood plain supports 450 square kilometers of bottom-land hardwood and tupelo-cypress forests. The Apalachicola River Quality Assessment focuses on the hydrology and productivity of the flood-plain forest. The purpose of this part of the assessment is to address river and flood-plain hydrology, floodplain tree species and forest types, and water and tree relations. Seasonal stage fluctuations in the upper river are three times greater than in the lower river. Analysis of long-term streamflow record revealed that 1958-79 average annual and monthly flows and flow durations were significantly greater than those of 1929-57, probably because of climatic changes. However, stage durations for the later period were equal to or less than those of the earlier period. Height of natural riverbank levees and the size and distribution of breaks in the levees have a major controlling effect on flood-plain hydrology. Thirty-two kilometers upstream of the bay, a flood-plain stream called the Brothers River was commonly under tidal influence during times of low flow in the 1980 water year. At the same distance upstream of the bay, the Apalachicola River was not under tidal influence during the 1980 water year. Of the 47 species of trees sampled, the five most common were wet-site species constituting 62 percent of the total basal area. In order of abundance, they were water tupelo, Ogeechee tupelo, baldcypress, Carolina ash, and swamp tupelo. Other very common species were sweet-gum, overcup oak, planertree, green ash, water hickory, sugarberry, and diamond-leaf oak. Five forest types were defined based on species predominance by basal area. Biomass increased downstream and was greatest in forests growing on permanently saturated soils. Depth of water, duration of inundation and saturation, and water-level fluctuation, but not water velocity, were very highly correlated with forest types. Most forest types dominated by tupelo and bald-cypress grew on permanently saturated soils with inundation by flood waters 50 to 90 per cent of the time, or an average of 75 to 225 consecutive days during the growing season from 1958 to 1980. Most forest types dominated by other species grew in areas that were saturated or inundated 5 to 25 percent of the time, or an average of 5 to 40 consecutive days during the growing season from 1958 to 1980. Water and tree relations varied with river location because range in water-level fluctuation and topographic relief in the flood plain diminished downstream.

Florida↗

USGS1984

Wetland hydrology and tree distribution of the Apalachicola River flood plain, Florida

The Apalachicola River in northwest Florida is part of a three-State drainage basin encompassing 50,800 km 2 in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. The river is formed by the confluence of the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers at Jim Woodruff Dam from which it flows 171 km to Apalachicola Bay in the Gulf of Mexico. Its average annual discharge at Chattahoochee, Fla., is 690 m3/s (1958-80) with annual high flows averaging nearly 3,000 m3/s. Its flood plain supports 450 km 2 of bottom-land hardwood and tupelo-cypress forests. The Apalachicola River Quality Assessment focuses on the hydrology and productivity of the flood-plain forest. The purpose of this part of the assessment is to address river and flood-plain hydrology, flood-plain tree species and forest types, and water and tree relations. Seasonal stage fluctuations in the upper river are three times greater than in the lower river. Analysis of long-term streamflow record revealed that 1958-79 average annual and monthly flows and flow durations were significantly greater than those of 1929-57, probably because of climatic changes. However, stage durations for the later period were equal to or less than those of the earlier period. Height of natural riverbank levees and the size and distribution of breaks in the levees have a major controlling effect on flood-plain hydrology. Thirty-two kilometers upstream of the bay, a flood-plain stream called the Brothers River was commonly under tidal influence during times of low flow in the 1980 water year. At the same distance upstream of the bay, the Apalachicola River was not under tidal influence during the 1980 water year. Of the 47 species of trees sampled, the five most common were wet-site species constituting 62 percent of the total basal area. In order of abundance, they were water tupelo, Ogeechee tupelo, baldcypress, Carolina ash, and swamp tupelo. Other common species were sweetgum, overcup oak, planertree, green ash, water hickory, sugarberry, and diamond-leaf oak. Five forest types were defined on the basis of species predominance by basal area. Biomass increased downstream and was greatest in forests growing on permanently saturated soils. Depth of water, duration of inundation and saturation, and water-level fluctuation, but not water velocity, were highly correlated with forest types. Most forest types dominated by tupelo and bald-cypress grew on permanently saturated soils that were inundated by flood waters 50 to 90 percent of the time, or an average of 75 to 225 consecutive days during the growing season from 1958 to 1980. Most forest types dominated by other species grew in areas that were saturated or inundated 5 to 25 percent of the time, or an average of 5 to 40 consecutive days during the growing season from 1958 to 1980. Water and tree relations varied with river location because range in water-level fluctuation and topographic relief in the flood plain diminished downstream.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2019

The risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Mexico

Coastal development and climate change are dramatically increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and extreme weather events. Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems act as natural defenses against coastal hazards, but their degradation increases risk to people and property. Environmental degradation, however, has rarely been quantified as a driver of coastal risk. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region on the Mexican Caribbean coast with an annual tourism economy of 10 billion USD, coral reefs constitute a natural barrier against flooding from hurricanes. This study spatially quantifies the risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Quintana Roo for people, buildings, and hotel infrastructure. The risk reduction benefits are substantial. For example, the reefs prevented 43% additional damage during Hurricane Dean in (2007) and provide nowadays hazard risk reduction for 4.3% of the people, 1.9% of the built capital, and 2.4% of the hotel infrastructure, per year. The annual benefits are estimated in 4,600 people, 42 million USD damage prevention for buildings, and 20.8 million USD for hotel infrastructure. The study also compares the risk reduction of coral reefs with (i) the protection offered by dunes and (ii) the increase in coastal risk from sea-level rise (SLR). The risk reduction of dunes is more critical where there are no coral reefs offshore and for small return-periods storms. Sea-level rise, however, will make the more frequent storms more impactful and will drive significant increases in annual expected damages across the region. However, we demonstrate that, in coral reef environments, the contribution of reef degradation to coastal risk is larger than the expected increase in risk from SLR. However, the spatial distribution of the risk reduction benefits from reefs differs for people and infrastructure, and in particular for hotels, which receive the most protection from reefs. Furthermore, many sections present larger benefits than the typical costs of restoration. This valuation makes a compelling case for protecting and maintaining this natural infrastructure for its risk reduction service, but also allows the development of piloting innovative strategies, such as risk finance and insurance strategies, that can align environmental and risk management goals.

Mesoamerican Reef↗

USGS2016

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Geoscience Canada↗

USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2017

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks. We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract. Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

California↗