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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Cosmogenic 10Be and 36Cl geochronology of offset alluvial fans along the northern Death Valley fault zone: Implications for transient strain in the eastern California shear zone

The northern Death Valley fault zone (NDVFZ) has long been recognized as a major right-lateral strike-slip fault in the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). However, its geologic slip rate has been difficult to determine. Using high-resolution digital topographic imagery and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating, we present the first geochronologically determined slip rate for the NDVFZ. Our study focuses on the Red Wall Canyon alluvial fan, which exposes clean dextral offsets of seven channels. Analysis of airborne laser swath mapping data indicates ???297 ?? 9 m of right-lateral displacement on the fault system since the late Pleistocene. In situ terrestrial cosmogenic 10Be and 36C1 geochronology was used to date the Red Wall Canyon fan and a second, correlative fan also cut by the fault. Beryllium 10 dates from large cobbles and boulders provide a maximum age of 70 +22/-20 ka for the offset landforms. The minimum age of the alluvial fan deposits based on 36Cl depth profiles is 63 ?? 8 ka. Combining the offset measurement with the cosmogenic 10Be date yields a geologic fault slip rate of 4.2 +1.9/-1.1 mm yr-1, whereas the 36Cl data indicate 4.7 +0.9/-0.6 mm yr-1 of slip. Summing these slip rates with known rates on the Owens Valley, Hunter Mountain, and Stateline faults at similar latitudes suggests a total geologic slip rate across the northern ECSZ of ???8.5 to 10 mm yr-1. This rate is commensurate with the overall geodetic rate and implies that the apparent discrepancy between geologic and geodetic data observed in the Mojave section of the ECSZ does not extend north of the Garlock fault. Although the overall geodetic rates are similar, the best estimates based on geology predict higher strain rates in the eastern part of the ECSZ than to the west, whereas the observed geodetic strain is relatively constant. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements

A coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation model. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic model tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip earthquakes and a compilation of finite source models of 18 earthquakes, the Chengkung earthquake generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung earthquake seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip earthquakes. The coseismic source model of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Space geodetic observation of expansion of the San Gabriel Valley, California, aquifer system, during heavy rainfall in winter 2004-2005

[1] Starting early in 2005, the positions of GPS stations in the San Gabriel valley region of southern California showed statistically significant departures from their previous behavior. Station LONG moved up by about 47 mm, and nearby stations moved away from LONG by about 10 mm. These changes began during an extremely rainy season in southern California and coincided with a 16-m increase in water level at a nearby well in Baldwin Park and a regional uplift detected by interferometric synthetic aperture radar. No equivalent signals were seen in GPS station position time series elsewhere in southern California. Our preferred explanation, supported by the timing and by a hydrologic simulation, is deformation due to recharging of aquifers after near-record rainfall in 2004–2005. We cannot rule out an aseismic slip event, but we consider such an event unlikely because it requires slip on multiple faults and predicts other signals that are not observed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Earthquake-by-earthquake fold growth above the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, Los Angeles, California: Implications for fold kinematics and seismic hazard

Boreholes and high-resolution seismic reflection data collected across the forelimb growth triangle above the central segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (PHT) beneath Los Angeles, California, provide a detailed record of incremental fold growth during large earthquakes on this major blind thrust fault. These data document fold growth within a discrete kink band that narrows upward from ???460 m at the base of the Quaternary section (200-250 m depth) to <150 m at 2.5 m depth, with most growth during the most recent folding event occurring within a zone only ???60 m wide. These observations, coupled with evidence from petroleum industry seismic reflection data, demonstrate that most (>82% at 250 m depth) folding and uplift occur within discrete kink bands, thereby enabling us to develop a paleoseismic history of the underlying blind thrust fault. The borehole data reveal that the youngest part of the growth triangle in the uppermost 20 m comprises three stratigraphically discrete growth intervals marked by southward thickening sedimentary strata that are separated by intervals in which sediments do not change thickness across the site. We interpret the intervals of growth as occurring after the formation of now-buried paleofold scarps during three large PHT earthquakes in the past 8 kyr. The intervening intervals of no growth record periods of structural quiescence and deposition at the regional, near-horizontal stream gradient at the study site. Minimum uplift in each of the scarp-forming events, which occurred at 0.2-2.2 ka (event Y), 3.0-6.3 ka (event X), and 6.6-8.1 ka (event W), ranged from ???1.1 to ???1.6 m, indicating minimum thrust displacements of ???2.5 to 4.5 m. Such large displacements are consistent with the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 7). Cumulative, minimum uplift in the past three events was 3.3 to 4.7 m, suggesting cumulative thrust displacement of ???7 to 10.5 m. These values yield a minimum Holocene slip rate for the PHT of ???0.9 to 1.6 mm/yr. The borehole and seismic reflection data demonstrate that dip within the kink band is acquired incrementally, such that older strata that have been deformed by more earthquakes dip more steeply than younger strata. Specifically, strata dip 0.4?? at 4 m depth, 0.7?? at 20 m depth, 8?? at 90 m, 16?? at 110 m, and 17?? at 200 m. Moreover, structural restorations of the borehole data show that the locus of active folding (the anticlinal active axial surface) does not extend to the surface in exactly the same location from earthquake to earthquake. Rather, that the axial surfaces migrate from earthquake to earthquake, reflecting a component of fold growth by kink band migration. The incremental acquisition of bed dip in the growth triangle may reflect some combination of fold growth by limb rotation in addition to kink band migration, possibly through a component of trishear or shear fault bend folding. Alternatively, the component of limb rotation may result from curved hinge fault bend folding, and/or the mechanical response of loosely consolidated granular sediments in the shallow subsurface to folding at depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Mechanical properties of sand, silt, and clay containing tetrahydrofuran hydrate

The mechanical behavior of hydrate-bearing sediments subjected to large strains has relevance for the stability of the seafloor and submarine slopes, drilling and coring operations, and the analysis of certain small-strain properties of these sediments (for example, seismic velocities). This study reports on the results of comprehensive axial compression triaxial tests conducted at up to 1 MPa confining pressure on sand, crushed silt, precipitated silt, and clay specimens with closely controlled concentrations of synthetic hydrate. The results show that the stress-strain behavior of hydrate-bearing sediments is a complex function of particle size, confining pressure, and hydrate concentration. The mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments at low hydrate concentration (probably < 40% of pore space) appear to be determined by stress-dependent soil stiffness and strength. At high hydrate concentrations (>50% of pore space), the behavior becomes more independent of stress because the hydrates control both stiffness and strength and possibly the dilative tendency of sediments by effectively increasing interparticle coordination, cementing particles together, and filling the pore space. The cementation contribution to the shear strength of hydrate-bearing sediments decreases with increasing specific surface of soil minerals. The lower the effective confining stress, the greater the impact of hydrate formation on normalized strength.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Hydrogeologic controls imposed by mechanical stratigraphy in layered rocks of the Chateauguay River Basin, a U.S.-Canada transborder aquifer

[1] The Ch&acirc;teauguay River Basin delineates a transborder watershed with roughly half of its surface area located in northern New York State and half in southern Qu&eacute;bec Province, Canada. As part of a multidisciplinary study designed to characterize the hydrogeologic properties of this basin, geophysical logs were obtained in 12 wells strategically located to penetrate the four major sedimentary rock formations that constitute the regional aquifers. The layered rocks were classified according to their elastic properties into three primary units: soft sandstone, hard sandstone, and dolostone. Downhole measurements were analyzed to identify fracture patterns associated with each unit and to evaluate their role in controlling groundwater flow. Fracture networks are composed of orthogonal sets of laterally extensive, subhorizontal bedding plane partings and bed-delimited, subvertical joints with spacings that are consistent with rock mechanics principles and stress models. The vertical distribution of transmissive zones is confined to a few select bedding plane fractures, with soft sandstone having the fewest (one per 70-m depth) and hard sandstone the most (five per 70-m depth). Bed-normal permeability is examined using a probabilistic model that considers the lengths of flow paths winding along joints and bedding plane fractures. Soft sandstone has the smallest bed-normal permeability primarily because of its wide, geomechanically undersaturated joint spacing. Results indicate that the three formations have similar values of bulk transmissivity, within roughly an order of magnitude, but that each rock unit has its own unique system of groundwater flow paths that constitute that transmissivity.

Chateauguay River Basin↗
USGS2007

Waveform inversion of volcano-seismic signals for an extended source

[1] We propose a method to investigate the dimensions and oscillation characteristics of the source of volcano-seismic signals based on waveform inversion for an extended source. An extended source is realized by a set of point sources distributed on a grid surrounding the centroid of the source in accordance with the source geometry and orientation. The source-time functions for all point sources are estimated simultaneously by waveform inversion carried out in the frequency domain. We apply a smoothing constraint to suppress short-scale noisy fluctuations of source-time functions between adjacent sources. The strength of the smoothing constraint we select is that which minimizes the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). We perform a series of numerical tests to investigate the capability of our method to recover the dimensions of the source and reconstruct its oscillation characteristics. First, we use synthesized waveforms radiated by a kinematic source model that mimics the radiation from an oscillating crack. Our results demonstrate almost complete recovery of the input source dimensions and source-time function of each point source, but also point to a weaker resolution of the higher modes of crack oscillation. Second, we use synthetic waveforms generated by the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled crack, and consider two sets of waveforms dominated by the modes with wavelengths 2 L /3 and 2 W /3, or L and 2 L /5, where W and L are the crack width and length, respectively. Results from these tests indicate that the oscillating signature of the 2 L /3 and 2 W /3 modes are successfully reconstructed. The oscillating signature of the L mode is also well recovered, in contrast to results obtained for a point source for which the moment tensor description is inadequate. However, the oscillating signature of the 2 L /5 mode is poorly recovered owing to weaker resolution of short-scale crack wall motions. The triggering excitations of the oscillating cracks are successfully reconstructed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Postseismic relaxation and aftershocks

[1] Perfettini et al. (2005) suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u ( t ) measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to N ( t ), the cumulative number of aftershocks, by the equation u ( t ) = a + bt + cN ( t ) + d (1 − e − αt ), where a , b , c , d , and α are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time. N ( t ) appears in the expression for u ( t ) because both the aftershocks and a portion of u ( t ) are thought to be driven by the same source, postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We show that this equation with the actually observed N ( t ) fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes: 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine (southern California), 2002 M7.9 Denali (central Alaska), 2003 M6.5 San Simeon (central California), and 2004 M6.0 Parkfield (central California) earthquakes. Although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u ( t ), the large number of adjustable constants ( a , b , c , d , and α ) involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit. Because the observed N ( t ) is well fit by the modified Omori's law, fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence. That dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep. Montesi (2004) demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Structure of the California Coast Ranges and San Andreas Fault at SAFOD from seismic waveform inversion and reflection imaging

[1] A seismic reflection and refraction survey across the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield provides a detailed characterization of crustal structure across the location of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). Steep-dip prestack migration and frequency domain acoustic waveform tomography were applied to obtain highly resolved images of the upper 5 km of the crust for 15 km on either side of the SAF. The resulting velocity model constrains the top of the Salinian granite with great detail. Steep-dip reflection seismic images show several strong-amplitude vertical reflectors in the uppermost crust near SAFOD that define an ∼2-km-wide zone comprising the main SAF and two or more local faults. Another prominent subvertical reflector at 2–4 km depth ∼9 km to the northeast of the SAF marks the boundary between the Franciscan terrane and the Great Valley Sequence. A deep seismic section of low resolution shows several reflectors in the Salinian crust west of the SAF. Two horizontal reflectors around 10 km depth correlate with strains of seismicity observed along-strike of the SAF. They represent midcrustal shear zones partially decoupling the ductile lower crust from the brittle upper crust. The deepest reflections from ∼25 km depth are interpreted as crust-mantle boundary.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗
USGS2007

Three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the San Francisco Bay region, California

[1] A new three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the greater San Francisco Bay region has been derived using the double-difference seismic tomography method, using data from about 5,500 chemical explosions or air gun blasts and approximately 6,000 earthquakes. The model region covers 140 km NE-SW by 240 km NW-SE, extending from 20 km south of Monterey to Santa Rosa and reaching from the Pacific coast to the edge of the Great Valley. Our model provides the first regional view of a number of basement highs that are imaged in the uppermost few kilometers of the model, and images a number of velocity anomaly lows associated with known Mesozoic and Cenozoic basins in the study area. High velocity ( V p > 6.5 km/s) features at ∼15-km depth beneath part of the edge of the Great Valley and along the San Francisco peninsula are interpreted as ophiolite bodies. The relocated earthquakes provide a clear picture of the geometry of the major faults in the region, illuminating fault dips that are generally consistent with previous studies. Ninety-five percent of the earthquakes have depths between 2.3 and 15.2 km, and the corresponding seismic velocities at the hypocenters range from 4.8 km/s (presumably corresponding to Franciscan basement or Mesozoic sedimentary rocks of the Great Valley Sequence) to 6.8 km/s. The top of the seismogenic zone is thus largely controlled by basement depth, but the base of the seismogenic zone is not restricted to seismic velocities of ≤6.3 km/s in this region, as had been previously proposed.

California↗
USGS2007

Postseismic relaxation associated with transient creep rheology

[1] Perfettini and Avouac (2004) postulated that both the aftershock rate (assumed proportional to the local stressing rate) and the postseismic relaxation are driven by the loading imposed by postseismic slip on the brittle creep fault zone (BCFZ), the downdip extension of the fault zone below the coseismic rupture. I explore the consequences of that hypothesis for a long, strike-slip fault in the case where the BCFZ rheology is compatible with ordinary transient creep (creep strain proportional to log e (1 + t / τ 2 )). Because the important relaxation occurs near the bottom of the coseismic rupture, I calculate the postearthquake response with a model in which the BCFZ is represented by a viscoelastic half-space below the coseismic rupture. I find that both the predicted postseismic relaxation and the cumulative number of aftershocks can be approximated by the same temporal dependence N MO ( t ) = a MO (1−(1 + t / τ ) 1− p )/( p − 1), where t is the time after the earthquake and a MO , τ , and p are the constants chosen to fit either data set. Notice that d N MO ( t )/d t = ( a MO / τ )/(1 + t / τ ) p is the modified Omori law used to describe the rate of aftershock occurrence. Thus, the modified Omori law can be understood as a consequence of the Perfettini–Avouac hypothesis (aftershocks driven by slip on the BCFZ) and a BCFZ rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep. Moreover, the temporal dependence N MO ( t ) has been shown to fit postseismic surface deformation following at least 9 earthquakes. I also show that the conventional, one-dimensional, spring-block model of a BFCZ with a rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep leads to the same temporal dependence ( N MO ( t )).

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Hydrothermal fluid flow and deformation in large calderas: Inferences from numerical simulations

[1] Inflation and deflation of large calderas is traditionally interpreted as being induced by volume change of a discrete source embedded in an elastic or viscoelastic half-space, though it has also been suggested that hydrothermal fluids may play a role. To test the latter hypothesis, we carry out numerical simulations of hydrothermal fluid flow and poroelastic deformation in calderas by coupling two numerical codes: (1) TOUGH2 [Pruess et al., 1999], which simulates flow in porous or fractured media, and (2) BIOT2 [Hsieh, 1996], which simulates fluid flow and deformation in a linearly elastic porous medium. In the simulations, high-temperature water (350°C) is injected at variable rates into a cylinder (radius 50 km, height 3–5 km). A sensitivity analysis indicates that small differences in the values of permeability and its anisotropy, the depth and rate of hydrothermal injection, and the values of the shear modulus may lead to significant variations in the magnitude, rate, and geometry of ground surface displacement, or uplift. Some of the simulated uplift rates are similar to observed uplift rates in large calderas, suggesting that the injection of aqueous fluids into the shallow crust may explain some of the deformation observed in calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Putting it all together: Exhumation histories from a formal combination of heat flow and a suite of thermochronometers

A suite of new techniques in thermochronometry allow analysis of the thermal history of a sample over a broad range of temperature sensitivities. New analysis tools must be developed that fully and formally integrate these techniques, allowing a single geologic interpretation of the rate and timing of exhumation and burial events consistent with all data. We integrate a thermal model of burial and exhumation, (U-Th)/He age modeling, and fission track age and length modeling. We then use a genetic algorithm to efficiently explore possible time-exhumation histories of a vertical sample profile (such as a borehole), simultaneously solving for exhumation and burial rates as well as changes in background heat flow. We formally combine all data in a rigorous statistical fashion. By parameterizing the model in terms of exhumation rather than time-temperature paths (as traditionally done in fission track modeling), we can ensure that exhumation histories result in a sedimentary basin whose thickness is consistent with the observed basin, a physically based constraint that eliminates otherwise acceptable thermal histories. We apply the technique to heat flow and thermochronometry data from the 2.1 -km-deep San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole near the San Andreas fault, California. We find that the site experienced <1 km of exhumation or burial since the onset of San Andreas fault activity

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Three-dimensional geophysical mapping of rock alteration and water content at Mount Adams, Washington: Implications for lahar hazards

[1] Hydrothermally altered rocks, particularly if water saturated, can weaken stratovolcanoes, thereby increasing the potential for catastrophic sector collapses that can lead to far-traveled, destructive debris flows. Evaluating the hazards associated with such alteration is difficult because alteration has been mapped on few active volcanoes and the distribution and intensity of subsurface alteration are largely unknown on any active volcano. At Mount Adams, some Holocene debris flows contain abundant hydrothermal minerals derived from collapse of the altered edifice. Intense hydrothermal alteration significantly reduces the resistivity and magnetization of volcanic rock, and therefore hydrothermally altered rocks can be identified with helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic measurements. Electromagnetic and magnetic data, combined with geological mapping and rock property measurements, indicate the presence of appreciable thicknesses of hydrothermally altered rock in the central core of Mount Adams north of the summit. We identify steep cliffs at the western edge of this zone as the likely source for future large debris flows. In addition, the electromagnetic data identified water in the brecciated core of the upper 100–200 m of the volcano. Water helps alter the rocks, reduces the effective stress, thereby increasing the potential for slope failure, and acts, with entrained melting ice, as a lubricant to transform debris avalanches into lahars. Therefore knowing the distribution of water is also important for hazard assessments. Our results demonstrate that high-resolution geophysical and geological observations can yield unprecedented views of the three-dimensional distribution of altered rock and shallow pore water aiding evaluation of the debris avalanche hazard.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity

We study how enforcing self-consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event. We explore features of rupture dynamics that (1) lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and (2) maintain these conditions following rupture, so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events. Our three-dimensional fmite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical, planar strike-slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop (initial shear stress) and breakdown work (fracture energy) are spatially heterogeneous. In these models the breakdown work is on the order of MJ/m2, which is comparable to the radiated energy. These conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model. An alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence, which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models. We hypothesize that self-consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self-sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kJ/M2. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗