USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Environmental Data Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Interlaboratory comparison of real-time pcr protocols for quantification of general fecal indicator bacteria

The application of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) technologies for the rapid identification of fecal bacteria in environmental waters is being considered for use as a national water quality metric in the United States. The transition from research tool to a standardized protocol requires information on the reproducibility and sources of variation associated with qPCR methodology across laboratories. This study examines interlaboratory variability in the measurement of enterococci and Bacteroidales concentrations from standardized, spiked, and environmental sources of DNA using the Entero1a and GenBac3 qPCR methods, respectively. Comparisons are based on data generated from eight different research facilities. Special attention was placed on the influence of the DNA isolation step and effect of simplex and multiplex amplification approaches on interlaboratory variability. Results suggest that a crude lysate is sufficient for DNA isolation unless environmental samples contain substances that can inhibit qPCR amplification. No appreciable difference was observed between simplex and multiplex amplification approaches. Overall, interlaboratory variability levels remained low (<10% coefficient of variation) regardless of qPCR protocol.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS1995

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2021

Expanding freshwater biologger studies to view fish as environmental sensing platforms

While recording fish habitat use by electronic sensors, biologgers can also be viewed as autonomous environmental monitoring systems with the organism as a vehicle. This dual perspective has provided novel results from marine ecosystems, but has not been applied to freshwater ecosystems. To understand limitations in fresh water, we evaluated miniature depth and temperature recorders as aquatic monitoring systems in a Laurentian Great Lake: Erie. As part of an acoustic telemetry study, biologgers were opportunistically implanted in a subsample of walleye Sander vitreus . Biologgers recorded temperature and depth at half-hour intervals for up to 1 year. Recaptures provided six biologgers for analysis of seasonal temperature patterns and lake stratification, key variables for understanding dimictic lakes. Depth-resolved temperature patterns showed close correspondence with independent weather buoy measurements. Because the buoy was deployed late in the season, biologger data provided improved estimates of the start of stratification, which had important implications for understanding development of hypoxia in the hypolimnion. Drawbacks to biologger data included imprecise knowledge of fish location and reliance on tag recoveries from the fishery. Optimistically, our results show how biologgers could be part of a monitoring approach that integrates limnological surveys with fisheries science.

Marine and Freshwater Research↗
USGS2022

Diatoms.org: Supporting taxonomists, connecting communities

Consistent identification of diatoms is a prerequisite for studying their ecology, biogeography, and successful application as environmental indicators. However, taxonomic consistency among observers has been difficult to achieve because taxonomic information is scattered across numerous literature sources, presenting challenges to the diatomist. Firstly, literature is often inaccessible because of cost or its location in journals that are not widely circulated. Secondly, taxonomic revisions of diatoms are taking place faster than floras can be updated. Finally, taxonomic information is often contradictory across literature sources. These issues can be addressed by developing a content creation community dedicated to making taxonomic, ecological, and image-based data freely available for diatom researchers. Diatoms.org represents such a content curation community, providing open, online access to a vast amount of recent and historical information on North American diatom taxonomy and ecology. The content curation community aggregates existing taxonomic information, creates new content, and provides feedback in the form of corrections and notices of literature with nomenclatural changes. The website not only addresses the needs of experienced diatom scientists for consistent identification but is also designed to meet users at their level of expertise, including engaging the lay public in the importance of diatom science. The website now contains over 1000 species pages contributed by over 100 content contributors, from students to established scientists. The project began with the intent to provide accurate information on diatom identification, ecology, and distribution using an approach that incorporates engaging design, user feedback, and advanced data access technology. In retrospect, the project that began as an ‘extended electronic book’ has emerged not only as a means to support taxonomists, but for practitioners to communicate and collaborate, expanding the size of and benefits to the content curation community. In this paper, we outline the development of diatoms.org , document key elements of the project, examine ongoing challenges and consider the unexpected emergent properties, including the value of diatoms.org as a source of data. Ultimately, if the field of diatom taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity is to be relevant, a new generation of taxonomists needs to be trained and employed using new tools. We propose that diatoms.org is in a key position to serve as a hub of training and continuity for the study of diatom biodiversity and aquatic conditions.

Diatom Research↗
USGS2017

Use of fish telemetry in rehabilitation planning, management, and monitoring in Areas of Concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Freshwater ecosystems provide many ecosystem services; however, they are often degraded as a result of human activity. To address ecosystem degradation in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Canada and the United States of America established the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). In 1987, 43 highly polluted and impacted areas were identified under the GLWQA as having one or more of 14 Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs) to the physical and chemical habitat for fish, wildlife and humans, and were designated as Areas of Concern (AOC). Subnational jurisdictions combined with local stakeholders, with support from federal governments, developed plans to remediate and restore these sites. Biotelemetry (the tracking of animals using electronic tags) provides information on the spatial ecology of fish in the wild relevant to habitat management and stock assessment. Here, seven case studies are presented where biotelemetry data were directly incorporated within the AOC Remedial Action Plan (RAP) process. Specific applications include determining seasonal fish–habitat associations to inform habitat restoration plans, identifying the distribution of pollutant-indicator species to identify exposure risk to contamination sources, informing the development of fish passage facilities to enable fish to access fragmented upstream habitats, and assessing fish use of created or restored habitats. With growing capacity for fish biotelemetry research in the Great Lakes, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of incorporating biotelemetry into AOC RAP processes to improve the science and practice of restoration and to facilitate the delisting of AOCs.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2025

Using a BACI design to assess stream ecology and chemistry response after wildfire

Wildfires can have complex effects on aquatic communities, which can be either beneficial or adverse depending on the setting. In California, USA, the size, frequency, and severity of wildfires has greatly increased over the last few decades. Understanding the effects of fire on aquatic ecosystem health and human land use has become increasingly important in managing the interface of the natural and urban landscape. In this study, we used a before–after control–impact (BACI) study design to test for differences in bed sediment chemistry, water chemistry, benthic algal biomass, and benthic macroinvertebrate communities between burned and unburned (control) watersheds, pre- and post-fire, using data collected before and after California’s 2017 Atlas, Nuns, and Tubbs wildfires. We found a treatment effect (burned vs control) on water chemistry, sediment trace-metal concentrations, algae, and community structure of benthic macroinvertebrates, but we found no evidence of an interaction between time period (pre- vs post-fire) and treatment. Both the difference in environmental factors between our control and burned sample sites and the proximity and degree of wildfire burn severity may have contributed to the results of this BACI study. Our results also highlight the importance of including control sites when assessing the effects of discrete disturbances, such as wildfire, to avoid spurious conclusions of disturbance effects that may be attributable to innate ecological variability.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS1999

Cumulative index to chemicals and to common and scientific names of species listed in Contaminant Hazard Reviews 1 through 34

The Contaminant Hazard Review (CHR) series--sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center--synthesizes ecotoxicological data for selected environmental contaminants, with emphasis on hazards to native species of flora and fauna. From 1985 through 1998, 34 reviews were published in various report series of the U.S. Department of the Interior on agricultural pesticides (acrolein, atrazine, carbofuran, chlordane, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, diflubenzuron, famphur, fenvalerate, mirex, paraquat, toxaphene), metals and metalloids (arsenic, boron, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, tin, zinc), mammalian biocides (sodium monofluoroacetate), organic industrial and municipal wastes (dioxins, pentachlorophenol, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls), minin wastes (cyanide), and ionizing radiations. This current report is a cumulative index to the common and scientific names of all biological species listed in the first 34 reports in the CHR series, with individual species cross-referenced with contaminant hazard review and corresponding page numbers. A similar index for chemicals is included.

Biological Science Report↗
USGS2017

Using groundwater age distributions to understand changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in ambient groundwater, northeastern United States

Temporal changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in groundwater were evaluated in the northeastern United States, an area of the nation with widespread low-level detections of MtBE based on a national survey of wells selected to represent ambient conditions. MtBE use in the U.S. peaked in 1999 and was largely discontinued by 2007. Six well networks, each representing specific areas and well types (monitoring or supply wells), were each sampled at 10 year intervals between 1996 and 2012. Concentrations were decreasing or unchanged in most wells as of 2012, with the exception of a small number of wells where concentrations continue to increase. Statistically significant increasing concentrations were found in one network sampled for the second time shortly after the peak of MtBE use, and decreasing concentrations were found in two networks sampled for the second time about 10 years after the peak of MtBE use. Simulated concentrations from convolutions of estimates for concentrations of MtBE in recharge water with age distributions from environmental tracer data correctly predicted the direction of MtBE concentration changes in about 65 percent of individual wells. The best matches between simulated and observed concentrations were found when simulating recharge concentrations that followed the pattern of national MtBE use. Some observations were matched better when recharge was modeled as a plume moving past the well from a spill at one point in time. Modeling and sample results showed that wells with young median ages and narrow age distributions responded more quickly to changes in the contaminant source than wells with older median ages and broad age distributions. Well depth and aquifer type affect these responses. Regardless of the timing of decontamination, all of these aquifers show high susceptibility for contamination by a highly soluble, persistent constituent.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2024

The potential of remote sensing for improved infectious disease ecology research and practice

Outbreaks of Covid-19 in humans, Dutch elm disease in forests, and highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds and poultry highlight the disruptive impacts of emerging infectious diseases on public health, ecosystems, and economies. Infectious disease dynamics often depend on environmental conditions that drive occurrence, transmission, and outbreaks. Remote sensing can contribute to infectious disease research and management by providing standardized environmental data across broad spatial and temporal extents, often at no cost to the user. Here, we 1) conduct a systematic review of primary literature to quantify current uses of remote sensing in disease ecology and 2) synthesize qualitative information to identify opportunities for further integration of remote sensing into disease ecology. We identify that modern advances in airborne remote sensing are promoting early detection of forest pathogens and that satellite data is contributing to the study of geographically widespread human diseases. We discuss opportunities for increased use of data products that characterize vegetation, surface water, and soil; provide data at high spatio-temporal and spectral resolutions; and quantify uncertainty in measurements. Additionally, combining remote sensing with animal movement telemetry can provide novel insights into wildlife disease. Integrating these opportunities will advance research and management of infectious diseases.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2016

Ecological relevance of current water quality assessment unit designations in impaired rivers

Managers often nest sections of water bodies together into assessment units (AUs) to monitor and assess water quality criteria. Ideally, AUs represent an extent of waters with similar ecological, watershed, habitat and land-use conditions and no overlapping characteristics with other waters. In the United States, AUs are typically based on political or hydrologic boundaries rather than on ecologically relevant features, so it can be difficult to detect changes in impairment status. Our goals were to evaluate if current AU designation criteria of an impaired water body in southeastern Idaho, USA that, like many U.S. waters, has three-quarters of its mainstem length divided into two AUs. We focused our evaluation in southeastern Idaho's Portneuf River, an impaired river and three-quarters of the river is divided into two AUs. We described biological and environmental conditions at multiple reaches within each AU. We used these data to (1) test if variability at the reach-scale is greater within or among AUs and, (2) to evaluate alternate AU boundaries based on multivariate analyses of reach-scale data. We found that some biological conditions had greater variability within an AU than between AUs. Multivariate analyses identified alternative, 2- and 3-group, AUs that reduced this variability. Our results suggest that the current AU designations in the mainstem Portneuf River contain ecologically distinct sections of river and that the existing AU boundaries should be reconsidered in light of the ecological conditions measured at the reach scale. Variation in biological integrity within designated AUs may complicate water quality and biological assessments, influence management decisions or affect where monitoring or mitigation resources are directed.

Idaho↗
USGS2021

Assessing the uncertainties in climatic estimates based on vegetation assemblages: Examples from modern vegetation assemblages in the American Southwest

Assemblages of fossil plant remains have been widely used to reconstruct past climatic conditions, usually through the application of methods that involve either finding vegetation analogues on the modern landscape (and using the modern associated climatic values as the basis for an estimate) or using the modern climatic ranges of individual taxa in an assemblage to determine the range of a given climate variable that would allow these plant taxa to live together. Although these approaches are relatively straightforward, it is difficult to assess the uncertainties associated with each approach, particularly in regard to their application to plant macrofossil assemblages. To explore the uncertainty that may arise from inaccuracy and imprecision in climate reconstructions and from ecological considerations we used variants of both approaches to estimate climate from two data sets of modern vegetation assemblages from the southwestern United States: (1) 1752 gridded “virtual plant assemblages” based on plant range maps that provide uniform spatial coverage of the presence or absence of major woody plant taxa across the study area; and (2) 43 modern packrat ( Neotoma spp.) midden presence-absence assemblages that are similar to fossil midden assemblages. By comparing observed and estimated climate values, we evaluated the quality of the climate estimates, identified sources of uncertainty, and characterized the nature and magnitude of the effects of these uncertainties on the climate estimates. Uncertainties in estimating climate from vegetation assemblages arise because any given plant taxon (or assemblage) must have the resiliency to survive a range of climatic variability, and because of the strong intercorrelations among climatic variables in the modern climate data. Additional sources of uncertainty in climate estimates from plant assemblages include: (1) the modern climate and plant distribution data that are selected as the basis for estimation; (2) the particular quantitative approach that is used to estimate climate; (3) the sufficiency of the number of taxa in the analysis for providing an unbiased representation of the vegetation community as it existed for each time period in the analysis; and, (4) the location of the assemblage on the climatic and environmental gradients in the calibration data set for each climate variable under consideration. We conclude that vegetation assemblages can provide valid and reproducible estimates of climatic variables and that the primary trends and mapped patterns in the observed climate data can be reconstructed from such estimates. However, many factors may affect the quality of an estimate from a given plant assemblage, including aspects of data selection, data adequacy, methodologies, and the location of the assemblage site relative to gradients in the base climate data. It is particularly difficult to accurately estimate extreme values in the observed climate data, because estimated values from either end of an observed climate gradient necessarily “move toward the middle” of the gradient. In addition, the interval chosen to represent modern climate (here we used 1961 to 1990) may have a large impact on the size of the estimated difference between modern and past climate at a given site.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2012

Social values for ecosystem services (SolVES): Documentation and user manual, version 2.0

In response to the need for incorporating quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem services assessments, the Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC), in collaboration with Colorado State University, developed a geographic information system (GIS) application, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES). With version 2.0 (SolVES 2.0), RMGSC has improved and extended the functionality of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the perceived social values of ecosystem services. Social values such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and recreation can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups as distinguished by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses, such as motorized recreation and logging. As with the previous version, SolVES 2.0 derives a quantitative, 10-point, social-values metric, the Value Index, from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public attitude and preference surveys and calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. Additionally, SolVES 2.0 integrates Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social value maps and to produce robust statistical models describing the relationship between the social values maps and explanatory environmental variables. The performance of these models can be evaluated for a primary study area, as well as for similar areas where primary survey data are not available but where social value mapping could potentially be completed using value-transfer methodology. SolVES 2.0 also introduces the flexibility for users to define their own social values and public uses, model any number and type of environmental variable, and modify the spatial resolution of analysis. With these enhancements, SolVES 2.0 provides an improved public domain tool for decisionmakers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among different ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts ranging from forest and rangeland to coastal and marine.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Understanding tidal marsh trajectories: Evaluation of multiple indicators of marsh persistence

Robust assessments of ecosystem stability are critical for informing conservation and management decisions. Tidal marsh ecosystems provide vital services, yet are globally threatened by anthropogenic alterations to physical and biological processes. A variety of monitoring and modeling approaches have been undertaken to determine which tidal marshes are likely to persist into the future. Here, we conduct the most robust comparison of marsh metrics to date, building on two foundational studies that had previously and independently developed metrics for marsh condition. We characterized pairs of marshes with contrasting trajectories (of marsh cover ) across six regions of the United States, using a combination of remote-sensing and field-based metrics. We also quantified decadal trends in marsh conversion to mudflat/open water at these twelve marshes. Our results suggest that metrics quantifying the distribution of vegetation across an elevational gradient represent the best indicators of marsh trajectories. The unvegetated to vegetated ratio and flood-ebb sediment differential also served as valuable indicators. No single metric universally predicted marsh trajectories, and therefore a more robust approach includes a suite of spatially integrated, landscape-scale metrics that are mostly obtainable from remote sensing. Data from surface elevation tables and marker horizons revealed that degrading marshes can have higher rates of vertical accretion and elevation gain than more intact counterparts, likely due to longer inundation times potentially combined with internal recycling of material. A high rate of elevation gain relative to local sea-level rise has been considered critical to marsh persistence, but our results suggest that it also may serve as a signature of degradation in marshes that have already begun to deteriorate. This investigation, with rigorous comparison and integration of metrics initially developed independently, tested at a broad geographic scale, provides a model for collaborative science to develop management tools for improving conservation outcomes.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1990

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating pliocene-Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function (GSF18) related 5 North Atlantic assemblages to winter and summer sea surface temperature. GSF18, based on recombined and simplified core top census data, preserves most environmental information and reproduces modern North Atlantic conditions with approximately the same accuracy as previous transfer functions, but can be more readily applied to faunal samples ranging in age from Pliocene to Holocene. Transfer function GSF18 has been applied to faunal data from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 552A to produce a 2.5 m.y. sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. Estimates show several periods between 2.3 and 4.6 Ma during which mean SST's were both several degrees warmer and several degrees cooler than modern conditions. Between 2.9 and 4.0 Ma SST was generally warmer than modern except for a 250 k.y. interval centered at 3.3 Ma. Maximum SST, with respect to modern conditions, occurred after the cool interval near 3.1 Ma when SST was approximately 3.6??C warmer than present conditions. Comparison of SST estimates with stable isotope data suggest that after peak warming at 3.1 Ma, there was an overall surface water cooling with concomitant build up of global ice volume, culminating in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This event is also indicated by the presence of ice rafted detritus in 552A sediments at about 2.45 Ma. ?? 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

Marine Micropaleontology↗
USGS2025

Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan

Preface This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A provides scoping details of the report, a summary of the 19 metrics that are used to evaluate the performance of each of 5 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Chapter B analyzes elk population and chronic wasting disease dynamics under the five alternatives. Chapter C evaluates elk space-use based on data collected from global positioning system collars on elk and expert elicitation for scenarios with limited data. Chapter D evaluates bison population dynamics, conflict, and harvest patterns under the five alternatives. Chapter E assesses social and economic consequences. The alternatives are anticipated to have varying affects on bison and elk population abundance and private land use, wildlife-related recreation and tourism, and hunters and outfitters in the region. Each chapter was developed under advisement of a technical team, made up science experts from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

An 8700 year paleoclimate reconstruction from the southern Maya lowlands

Analysis of a sediment core from Lago Puerto Arturo, a closed basin lake in northern Peten, Guatemala, has provided an &sim;8700 cal year record of climate change and human activity in the southern Maya lowlands. Stable isotope, magnetic susceptibility, and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct environmental change in the region. Results indicate a relatively wet early to middle Holocene followed by a drier late Holocene, which we interpret as reflecting long-term changes in insolation (precession). Higher frequency variability is more likely attributable to changes in ocean/atmosphere circulation in both the North Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Pollen and isotope data show that most of the period of prehispanic agricultural settlement, i.e. &sim;5000&ndash;1000 cal yr BP, was characterized by drier conditions than previous or subsequent periods. The presence of Zea (corn) pollen through peak aridity during the Terminal Classic period (&sim;1250&ndash;1130 cal yr BP) suggests that drought may not have had as negative an impact as previously proposed. A dramatic negative shift in isotope values indicates an increase in precipitation after &sim;950 cal yr BP (hereafter BP).

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2020

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Science↗
USGS2014

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis , was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica , showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Environment and Ecology Research↗