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Navigating the science-policy interface

As a wildlife population ecologist who wants to conduct useful science, I find the Endangered Species Act (ESA), like other federal wildlife statutes, an intriguing read. The topic is in my wheelhouse—fish, wildlife, and plants, with a focus at the population and species levels. There is an emphasis on science, in fact, the “best scientific and commercial data available.” And there are intriguing questions: what threats does a species face? What habitat would be critical for its survival? Could any federal actions put the species or critical habitat in greater peril? I am not alone in this attraction. Hundreds of scientists continue to consider the types of scientific analysis suggested by the ESA. The enthusiasm is palpable. If the first cursory read of the ESA is intriguing to me as a scientist, the second close read is tantalizing—I realize that something very attractive is just out of reach. I know how to estimate the probability of extinction, but I do not know what “in danger of extinction” means. I know how to evaluate the incremental change in status that might arise from some level of proposed take, but I do not know what “is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence” of a species means. The standards expressed in the statute are not stated in purely scientific terms. Thus, ESA decisions cannot be based solely on science, and require additional policy interpretation. Clarity about these policy interpretations—even awareness that they are needed—can be hard to find, leaving a gap between what I can provide as a scientist and what an ESA decision maker needs. This awareness of the interaction between science and policy is also occurring in the larger field of conservation science, where there has been an increasing recognition of a research-implementation gap, the need for actionable science, and the promise of translational ecology. All of these terms emphasize that science alone does not result in action; instead, action arises out of decisions that are informed both by science and by values. At the interface of science and policy, a scientist can deliver relevant knowledge, and a decision maker can explain the policy context in which that science is needed. As a scientist wanting to conduct useful science, I crave this two-way conversation. But how can this conversation be structured in a meaningful and appropriate way? In this chapter, I explore how decision analysis can be used to navigate the science-policy interface for ESA decisions. Decision analysis is a large, well-established field that studies how decisions are made and how they could be made, with explicit attention given to clarifying and separating the values-based and science-based elements of a decision; identifying the impediments that make a decision difficult; and providing tools to overcome those impediments. There have been concerted efforts to apply formal decision analysis to ESA decisions, but the practice is not yet widespread across both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service (the Services). The chapter begins with an introduction to decision analysis and how it seeks to bridge the science-policy interface. In subsequent sections, I explore how a decision analyst might frame listing and reclassification decisions, recovery planning, section 7 consultation, budget allocations, and a few other ESA decisions, with an emphasis on two questions: for each type of decision, what policy clarifications does the decision maker need to make; and knowing the policy context, what type of scientific assessment is needed. In the final discussion, I identify common themes among the types of decisions, and offer thoughts on how decision analysis could be more widely used to integrate science into ESA decisions.

Book chapter↗

The future of recreational fisheries: Advances in science, monitoring, management, and practice

Recreational fisheries (RF) are complex social-ecological systems that play an important role in aquatic environments while generating significant social and economic benefits around the world. The nature of RF is diverse and rapidly evolving, including the participants, their priorities and behaviors, and the related ecological impacts and social and economic benefits. RF can lead to negative ecological impacts, particularly through overexploitation of fish populations and spread of non-native species and genotypes through stocking. Hence, careful management and monitoring of RF is essential to sustain these ecologically and socioeconomically important resources. This special issue on recreational fisheries contains diverse research, syntheses, and perspectives that highlight the advances being made in RF research, monitoring, management, and practice, which we summarize here. Co-management actions are rising, often involving diverse interest groups including government and non-government organizations; applying collaborative management practices can help balance social and economic benefits with conservation targets. Technological and methodological advances are improving the ability to monitor biological, social, and economic dynamics of RF, which underpin the ability to maximize RF benefits through management actions. To ensure RF sustainability, much research focuses on the ecological aspects of RF, as well as the development of management and angling practices that reduce negative impacts on fish populations. For example, angler behavior can be influenced to conform to conservation-minded angling practices through regulations, but is often best accomplished through growing bottom-up social change movements. Anglers can also play an important role in fisheries monitoring and conservation, including providing data on fish abundance and assemblages (i.e., citizen science). The increasing impacts that growing human populations are having on the global environment are threatening many of the natural resources and ecosystem services they provide, including valuable RF. However, with careful development of research initiatives, monitoring and management, sustainable RF can generate positive outcomes for both society and natural ecosystems and help solve allocation conflicts with commercial fisheries and conservation.

Fisheries Research↗

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular↗

Interpreting and Reporting Radiological Water-Quality Data

This document provides information to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers on interpreting and reporting radiological results for samples of environmental matrices, most notably water. The information provided is intended to be broadly useful throughout the United States, but it is recommended that scientists who work at sites containing radioactive hazardous wastes need to consult additional sources for more detailed information. The document is largely based on recognized national standards and guidance documents for radioanalytical sample processing, most notably the Multi-Agency Radiological Laboratory Analytical Protocols Manual (MARLAP), and on documents published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the American National Standards Institute. It does not include discussion of standard USGS practices including field quality-control sample analysis, interpretive report policies, and related issues, all of which shall always be included in any effort by the Water Science Centers. The use of 'shall' in this report signifies a policy requirement of the USGS Office of Water Quality.

Techniques and Methods↗

Working with strainmeter data

The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), the geodetic component of the U.S. National Science Foundation–funded Earthscope program, includes 75 borehole and 6 laser strainmeters ( http://pbo.unavco.org ). The strainmeters are installed at several locations: on the Cascadia forearc in Washington state and on Vancouver Island, Canada; in arrays of two to nine instruments along the North American–Pacific plate boundary in California; at Mount St. Helens; and in Yellowstone National Park. For deformation signals seconds to weeks in duration, strainmeters have a resolution and a signal-to-noise ratio superior to those of seismometers and GPS. However, this high sensitivity can introduce nontectonic signals into strain data, presenting data interpretation challenges, especially for borehole strainmeters.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

North Cascades National Park Service Complex

Natural Resource Condition Assessments (NRCAs) evaluate current conditions for a subset of natural resources and resource indicators in national parks. NRCAs also report on trends in resource condition (when possible), identify critical data gaps, and characterize a general level of confidence for study findings. The resources and indicators emphasized in a given project depend on the park’s resource setting, status of resource stewardship planning and science in identifying high-priority indicators, and availability of data and expertise to assess current conditions for a variety of potential study resources and indicators. Although the primary objective of NRCAs is to report on current conditions relative to logical forms of reference conditions and values, NRCAs also report on trends, when appropriate (i.e., when the underlying data and methods support such reporting), as well as influences on resource conditions. These influences may include past activities or conditions that provide a helpful context for understanding current conditions and present-day threats and stressors that are best interpreted at park, watershed, or landscape scales (though NRCAs do not report on condition status for land areas and natural resources beyond park boundaries). Intensive cause-andeffect analyses of threats and stressors, and development of detailed treatment options, are outside the scope of NRCAs.

Washington↗

Mount Rainier National Park

Natural Resource Condition Assessments (NRCAs) evaluate current conditions for a subset of natural resources and resource indicators in national parks. NRCAs also report on trends in resource condition (when possible), identify critical data gaps, and characterize a general level of confidence for study findings. The resources and indicators emphasized in a given project depend on the park’s resource setting, status of resource stewardship planning and science in identifying high-priority indicators, and availability of data and expertise to assess current conditions for a variety of potential study resources and indicators. Although the primary objective of NRCAs is to report on current conditions relative to logical forms of reference conditions and values, NRCAs also report on trends, when appropriate (i.e., when the underlying data and methods support such reporting), as well as influences on resource conditions. These influences may include past activities or conditions that provide a helpful context for understanding current conditions and present-day threats and stressors that are best interpreted at park, watershed, or landscape scales (though NRCAs do not report on condition status for land areas and natural resources beyond park boundaries). Intensive cause-andeffect analyses of threats and stressors, and development of detailed treatment options, are outside the scope of NRCAs. It is also important to note that NRCAs do not address resources that lack sufficient data for assessment. For Mount Rainier National Park, this includes most invertebrate species and many other animal species that are subject to significant stressors from climate change and other anthropogenic sources such as air pollutants and recreational use. In addition, we did not include an analysis of the physical hydrology associated with streams (such as riverine landforms, erosion and aggradation which is significant in MORA streams), due to a loss of staff expertise from the USGS-BRD staff conducting the work, and human disturbance landcover issues such as the effects of roads, trails, and other anthropogenic developments due to lack of funds.

Report↗

The value of earth observations: methods and findings on the value of Landsat imagery

Data from Earth observation systems are used extensively in managing and monitoring natural resources, natural hazards, and the impacts of climate change, but the value of such data can be difficult to estimate, particularly when it is available at no cost. Assessing the socioeconomic and scientific value of these data provides a better understanding of the existing and emerging research, science, and applications related to this information and contributes to the decision making process regarding current and future Earth observation systems. Recent USGS research on Landsat data has advanced the literature in this area by using a variety of methods to estimate value. The results of a 2012 survey of Landsat users, a 2013 requirements assessment, and 2013 case studies of applications of Landsat imagery are discussed.

Book chapter↗

Differential energy radiation from two earthquakes in Japan with identical M w : The Kyushu 1996 and Tottori 2000 earthquakes

We examine two closely located earthquakes in Japan that had identical moment magnitudes M w but significantly different energy magnitudes M e . We use teleseismic data from the Global Seismograph Network and strong-motion data from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention's K-Net to analyze the 19 October 1996 Kyushu earthquake (M w 6.7, M e 6.6) and the 6 October 2000 Tottori earthquake (M w 6.7, M e 7.4). To obtain regional estimates of radiated energy E S we apply a spectral technique to regional (<200 km) waveforms that are dominated by S and Lg waves. For the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake, we estimate an average regional attenuation Q(f) 230f 0:65 . For the strike-slip Tottori earthquake, the average regional attenuation is Q(f) 180f 0:6 . These attenuation functions are similar to those derived from studies of both California and Japan earthquakes. The regional estimate of E S for the Kyushu earthquake, 3:8 ?? 10 14 J, is significantly smaller than that for the Tottori earthquake, E S 1:3 ?? 10 15 J. These estimates correspond well with the teleseismic estimates of 3:9 ?? 10 14 J and 1:8 ?? 10 15 J, respectively. The apparent stress (T a = ??E s /M 0 with ?? equal to rigidity) for the Kyushu earthquake is 4 times smaller than the apparent stress for the Tottori earthquake. In terms of the fault maturity model, the significantly greater release of energy by the strike-slip Tottori earthquake can be related to strong deformation in an immature intraplate setting. The relatively lower energy release of the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake can be related to rupture on mature faults at a subduction environment. The consistence between teleseismic and regional estimates of E S is particularly significant as teleseismic data for computing E S are routinely available for all large earthquakes whereas often there are no near-field data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST)

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a study approach focused on building cross-disciplinary connections to weave together the scientific knowledge related to drought conditions and effects in the Colorado River Basin. The basin is experiencing the worst drought in recorded history, posing unprecedented new challenges in the basin and in areas relying on water from the basin. Science is continually advancing, and there is an increasing need to interpret the connections between studies to predict the effects of drought and other changes affecting the Earth system. The USGS primarily works in independent disciplines and science centers to provide cutting-edge science to advance research and science applications worldwide. The complexity and volume of research that has been conducted related to drought in the Colorado River Basin is difficult to quantify. To complicate matters, studies, models, and datasets are cataloged and may be available in multiple, unrelated locations, across various internal systems, data repositories, and local offices. Furthermore, there are limited interactions and interfaces between scientists and partners working in different science disciplines; in many cases, individual science products require stakeholders to integrate complex interdisciplinary data across geographical and topical extents. The diverse array of interdisciplinary science and science products produced by the USGS highlights the need for a wide ranging collaborative support structure.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

User engagement to improve coastal data access and delivery

Executive Summary A priority of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program focus on coastal change hazards is to provide accessible and actionable science that meets user needs. To understand these needs, 10 virtual Coastal Data Delivery Listening Sessions were completed with 5 coastal data user types that coastal change hazards data are intended to serve: resource managers, consultants, local planners, State planners, and non-USGS researchers. During these listening sessions, participants revealed challenges to coastal data use including being overwhelmed by too many webtools, having a lack of capacity to search for and understand new information, facing difficulties finding data, and not understanding how to apply data. The specific coastal data and information needs described by participants are also detailed in the report and describe data gaps, a need for simpler tools, data needs that differ across spatial and temporal scales, and more outreach on coastal topics and climate change. Participants also suggested leveraging data across study sites and regions to help improve capacity issues and called for more communication and collaboration among and within Federal agencies. The synthesized information from the Coastal Data Delivery Listening Sessions provided in this report can help the USGS and those working on coastal challenges better understand barriers to coastal information use and the exact data requirements of different coastal data users.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Bayesian networks facilitate updating of species distribution and habitat suitability models

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

Oregon, Washington↗

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth&mdash;including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology↗

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Scenario Retrospective 2006–21

The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project has created four major hazard scenarios—ShakeOut, ARkStorm, Tsunami Scenario, and HayWired—with multidisciplinary teams of scientists, academics, and practitioners. By presenting a clear and highly detailed narrative of potential damage from earthquakes, tsunamis, and winter storms, the scenarios are intended to foster science-based preparedness strategies and disaster risk reduction innovations. This evaluation explores the presence of these scenarios in cultures of preparedness and their role in disaster risk reduction, and reports barriers and enablers to creating and using these scenarios. To do this, the evaluation team developed a mixed-methods study that includes background research for each scenario, qualitative interviews, data collection of media and academic engagement, and examples of SAFRR scenario use in hazard planning. The data collection led to the development of a hazard scenario evaluation tool that combines theories from multiple disciplines to create a best practice set of categories that aid in scenario use and efficacy. The evaluation tool categories—actionable, longitudinal, educational, relevant, and thorough—are organized as a series of checklists that are used to determine how the scenario planners prioritized different aspects of the scenarios to achieve their goals. The tool could also be used to aid scenario planning for other regional disaster risk reduction scenarios of a similar scope. Findings from this evaluation include detailed narratives of scenario use over time, demonstrating that the scenarios have continued to be useful in hazard planning and preparedness across the globe. Examples of use include using the scenarios to advocate for resilient building and development policy, to promote hazard response exercises, and as source data for the development of new hazard models and science. The scenarios themselves are innovative, both in the hazard science created for scenario development and in their branding and public engagement as U.S. Geological Survey products. This SAFFR retrospective is a descriptive evaluation and does not formally address the effects of the scenarios. Nevertheless, this report does include evidence of scenario affects as discovered through qualitative interviews and research, which is presented to explore how the SAFRR scenarios have been received by cultures of preparedness.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

In situ optical water-quality sensor networks - Workshop summary report

Advanced in situ optical water-quality sensors and new techniques for data analysis hold enormous promise for furthering scientific understanding of aquatic systems. These sensors measure important biogeochemical parameters for long deployments, enabling the capture of data at time scales over which they vary most meaningfully. The high-frequency, real-time water-quality data they generate provide opportunities for early warning of water-quality deterioration, trend detection, and science-based decision support. However, developing networks of optical sensors in freshwater systems that report reliable and comparable data across and between sites remains a challenge to the research and monitoring community. To address this, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) convened a joint 3-day workshop (June 8-10, 2011) at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepardstown, West Virginia, to explore ways to coordinate development of standards and applications for optical sensors, and improve handling, storing, and analyzing the continuous data they produce. The workshop brought together more than 60 scientists, program managers, and vendors from universities, government agencies, and the private sector. Several important outcomes emerged from the presentations and breakout sessions. There was general consensus that making intercalibrated measurements requires that both manufacturers and users better characterize and calibrate the sensors under field conditions. For example, the influence of suspended particles, highly colored water, and temperature on optical sensors remains poorly understood, but consistently accounting for these factors is critical to successful deployment and for interpreting results in different settings. This, in turn, highlights the lack of appropriate standards for sensor calibrations, field checks, and characterizing interferences, as well as methods for data validation, treatment, and analysis of resulting measurements. Participants discussed a wide range of logistical considerations for successful sensor deployments, including key physical infrastructure, data loggers, and remote-communication techniques. Tools to manage, assure, and control quality, and explore large streams of continuous water-quality data are being developed by the USGS, CUAHSI, and other organizations, and will be critical to making full use of these highfrequency data for research and monitoring.

Open-File Report↗

Effects of acid deposition on ecosystems: Advances in the state of the science

Chapter 2 focused on the environmental results of the ARP, presenting data from national monitoring networks on SO2 and NOx emissions, air quality, atmospheric deposition, surface water chemistry, and visibility. This chapter expands on this information by examining the most recent research into how ecosystems respond to acid deposition, especially the processes that control the recovery of ecosystems as acid deposition decreases. In Chapter 2, two general trends were discussed regarding the current recovery status of affected ecosystems: (1) these ecosystems are trending generally towards recovery, but improvements in ecosystem condition shown by surface water chemistry monitoring data thus far have been less than the improvements in deposition; and (2) ecosystem impacts and trends vary widely by geographic region, but the evidence of improvement is strongest and most evident in the Northeast. These trends are not uniform across the United States, however, and in some regions (e.g., central Appalachian Mountain region), trends in improved water quality are generally not evident. Despite the strong link in many areas between reduced emissions and reduced acidity of atmospheric deposition, the link is less clear between reduced acidity and recovery of the biological communities that live in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that have experienced deleterious effects from acid deposition. The recovery of these communities is proceeding at a slower pace than, for example, the improvements in stream and lake ANC would indicate. The goal of this chapter is to synthesize the science in a weightof-evidence manner to provide policy makers with tangible evidence and likely causative factors regarding ecosystem status and recovery patterns to date. This chapter serves as an update to the 2005 NAPAP RTC (NSTC, 2005), with an emphasis on scientific studies and monitoring since 2003, which was the last year for consideration of research results in the 2005 report. Several issues pertinent to ecosystem response to emission controls and acid deposition are receiving increasing attention in the scientific literature and will be discussed in this chapter, including the (1) observed delay in ecosystem recovery in the eastern United States, even with decreases in emissions and deposition over the past 30 years; (2) emerging ecosystem impacts of nitrogen deposition in the western United States; (3) the application of critical deposition loads as a tool for scientists to better inform air quality policies; (4) the role of changes in climate and the carbon cycle as factors that affect the response of ecosystems to acid deposition; and (5) the interaction of multiple pollutants in ecosystems. Throughout this chapter, the value of long-term environmental monitoring data in informing air quality policy will be highlighted, including the limitations of assessing the current status of some ecosystem indicators for which continuous, long-term data are lacking.

Report↗

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗

Teaching citizen science skills online: Implications for invasive species training programs

Citizen science programs are emerging as an efficient way to increase data collection and help monitor invasive species. Effective invasive species monitoring requires rigid data quality assurances if expensive control efforts are to be guided by volunteer data. To achieve data quality, effective online training is needed to improve field skills and reach large numbers of remote sentinel volunteers critical to early detection and rapid response. The authors evaluated the effectiveness of online static and multimedia tutorials to teach citizen science volunteers (n = 54) how to identify invasive plants; establish monitoring plots; measure percent cover; and use Global Positioning System (GPS) units. Participants trained using static and multimedia tutorials provided less (p <.001) correct species identifications (63% and 67%) than did professionals (83%) across all species, but they did not differ (p =.125) between each other. However, their ability to identify conspicuous species was comparable to that of professionals. The variability in percent plant cover estimates between static (??10%) and multimedia (??13%) participants did not differ (p =.86 and.08, respectively) from those of professionals (??9%). Trained volunteers struggled with plot setup and GPS skills. Overall, the online approach used did not influence conferred field skills and abilities. Traditional or multimedia online training augmented with more rigorous, repeated, and hands-on, in-person training in specialized skills required for more difficult tasks will likely improve volunteer abilities, data quality, and overall program effectiveness. ?? Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Applied Environmental Education and Communication↗