USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climatic Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Strategic needs of water on the Yukon: An interdisciplinary approach to studying hydrology and climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin

Strategic Needs of Water on the Yukon (SNOWY) is an interdisciplinary research project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF; http://www.nsf.gov/ ). The SNOWY team is made up of a diverse group of researchers from different backgrounds and organizations. This partnership between scientists from different disciplines (hydrology, geography, and social science), government agencies, nonprofit organizations, universities, and Lower Yukon River Basin (LYRB) and Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta communities provided an opportunity to study the effects of climate change using a holistic approach. The Arctic and Subarctic are experiencing environmental change at a rate faster than the rest of the world, and the lack of historical baseline data in these often remote locations makes understanding and predicting regional climate change difficult. This project focused on collecting data to fill in these gaps by using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to tell the story of environmental change in this region as told by the physical data and the people who rely on this landscape.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Report↗
USGS2021

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗
USGS2010

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

Study region Eastern and central Montana. Study focus Fish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period). New hydrological insights for the region Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2022

Landscape characteristics influence projected growth rates of stream-resident juvenile salmon in the face of climate change in the Kenai River watershed, south-central Alaska

Objective Climate change is affecting the distribution and productivity of Pacific salmon throughout their range. At high latitudes, warmer temperatures have been associated with increased freshwater growth of juvenile salmon, but it is not clear how long this trend will continue before further warming leads to reduced growth. To explore the potential influence of climate warming on juvenile Chinook and Coho Salmon summer growth rates in southcentral Alaska, we coupled bioenergetics models with temperature sensitivity models for streams across the Kenai River watershed. Methods We measured diet ( n = 772 stomachs) and growth ( n = 3,791 weight/length values) under current conditions and used published air temperature projections to model growth for the 2030–2039 and 2060–2069 decades. Result We estimated direct effects of climate warming on juvenile growth (body mass at the end of May–September study period) will be primarily negative, ranging from +5.1% to −22.8% relative to a 2010–2019 baseline. Estimated effects depended on age cohort, feeding rate, and climate scenario. However, an extended growing season from warming could mitigate or offset predicted reductions in growth during midsummer. Conclusion Our results illustrate how diverse habitats are expected to produce variation in the magnitude of climate effects throughout juvenile salmon rearing environments.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for ( i ) warmer, ( ii ) warmer and 20% wetter, and ( iii ) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2021

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Navigating the possibilities and pitfalls of biocrust recovery in a changing climate

Biological soil crusts are complex communities composed of lichens, mosses, bacteria, and cyanobacteria that create a living skin on the soil surface across drylands worldwide. Although small in size, the vast area that biocrusts cover and the critical functions they provide make them a cornerstone of dryland health and resiliency. In addition to being important, biocrusts are exceptionally vulnerable to certain types of disturbance. Although they can withstand a wide range of temperatures and long periods without precipitation, biocrusts are highly sensitive to land-use change and are vulnerable to physical and compressional disturbance (i.e., trampling, vehicles, cattle, heavy machinery). In the face of these disturbances, a critical, long-standing question of interest to dryland ecologists is: Can biocrusts recover following disturbance without active intervention. If so, how long does it take? Early estimates of biocrust recovery suggested recovery can be incredibly slow (on the order of thousands of years), with more modern studies finding potential for faster recovery, especially with intervention. Multiple lines of evidence agree that recovery is context dependent, differing across climates, soils, and with the types of disturbance and biocrust. Additionally, active restoration of biocrusts is becoming more common as tractable strategies are developed for facilitating the establishment of biocrusts after disturbance. Here, we add to the body of knowledge about biocrust recovery following disturbances by reviewing recovery patterns, their connection to climate change, considerations for recovery in changing climates, and the role of restoration.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2017

Fossil beetle evidence for climatic change 18,000-10,000 years B.P. in south-central Chile

Cold-adapted beetles colonized the lowlands of the Lake Region of south-central Chile following the retreat of glaciers from their maximum extent at about 19,500 yr B.P. The beetle fauna from 18,000 to 14,000 yr B.P. was characterized by species of moorland habitats. This fauna was species-poor compared to later faunas of the postglacial interval. By 14,000 yr B.P. arboreal species were replacing species of open habitats, reflecting a change toward a warmer climate. By about 12,500 yr B.P. fossil beetle assemblages consisted entirely of rain forest species. The fauna of the postglacial interval was about five times as species-rich as that of the glacial interval. The change in species composition and greater diversity of the beetle fauna was produced by an increase in mean annual temperature estimated to be about 4??-5??C. This was the last major climatic change to affect profoundly the biota of the middle latitudes of South America. The fossil beetle assemblages do not imply a reversal to a colder climate at the time of the European Younger Dryas interval between 11,000 and 10,000 yr B.P. ?? 1992.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2009

Acid rock drainage and climate change

Rainfall events cause both increases and decreases in acid and metals concentrations and their loadings from mine wastes, and unmined mineralized areas, into receiving streams based on data from 3 mines sites in the United States and other sites outside the US. Gradual increases in concentrations occur during long dry spells and sudden large increases are observed during the rising limb of the discharge following dry spells (first flush). By the time the discharge peak has occurred, concentrations are usually decreased, often to levels below those of pre-storm conditions and then they slowly rise again during the next dry spell. These dynamic changes in concentrations and loadings are related to the dissolution of soluble salts and the flushing out of waters that were concentrated by evaporation. The underlying processes, pyrite oxidation and host rock dissolution, do not end until the pyrite is fully weathered, which can take hundreds to thousands of years. These observations can be generalized to predict future conditions caused by droughts related to El Ni??o and climate change associated with global warming. Already, the time period for dry summers is lengthening in the western US and rainstorms are further apart and more intense when they happen. Consequently, flushing of inactive or active mine sites and mineralized but unmined sites will cause larger sudden increases in concentrations that will be an ever increasing danger to aquatic life with climate change. Higher average concentrations will be observed during longer low-flow periods. Remediation efforts will have to increase the capacity of engineered designs to deal with more extreme conditions, not average conditions of previous years.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗
USGS2010

Intra- and interspecific facilitation in mangroves may increase resilience to climate change threats

Mangroves are intertidal ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. At the low tidal limits of their range, they face swamping by rising sea levels; at the high tidal limits, they face increasing stress from desiccation and high salinity. Facilitation theory may help guide mangrove management and restoration in the face of these threats by suggesting how and when positive intra- and interspecific effects may occur: such effects are predicted in stressed environments such as the intertidal, but have yet to be shown among mangroves. Here, we report the results of a series of experiments at low and high tidal sites examining the effects of mangrove density and species mix on seedling survival and recruitment, and on the ability of mangroves to trap sediment and cause surface elevation change. Increasing density significantly increased the survival of seedlings of two different species at both high and low tidal sites, and enhanced sediment accretion and elevation at the low tidal site. Including Avicennia marina in species mixes enhanced total biomass at a degraded high tidal site. Increasing biomass led to changed microenvironments that allowed the recruitment and survival of different mangrove species, particularly Ceriops tagal .

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2023

Effects of freshwater residence time on reproductive success in anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus): climate change implications

Earlier spring warming and anadromous fish migrations prompted by climate change are linked to shorter freshwater residency. Impacts of phenological change on anadromous fish populations are poorly understood with limited studies focused on iteroparous non-salmonids. We assessed freshwater residence time and reproductive success in an iteroparous clupeid, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) using a pedigree analysis and otolith-based spawning dates from captured juveniles. The primary objectives were to (1) estimate adult spawning duration in a freshwater pond (freshwater residence time) and (2) evaluate adult freshwater residence time, arrival date, length, sex, and reproductive success across 2 years in one system. Estimated freshwater residence times varied widely (1–64 days), and longer residence times were associated with earlier arrival dates, higher reproductive success, and more mating events. Longer freshwater residence times may allow alewife to spawn with more mates, produce more gametes, and experience a range of spawning and nursery conditions. Plasticity in alewife freshwater residence time could support earlier and shorter migration periods but may result in lower reproductive output if adults spend less time in freshwater ponds.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2016

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2005

Implications of global climatic change and energy cost and availability for the restoration of the Mississippi delta

Over the past several thousand years, inputs from the Mississippi River formed the Mississippi delta, an area of about 25,000 km 2 . Over the past century, however, there has been a high loss of coastal wetlands of about 4800 km 2 . The main causes of this loss are the near complete isolation of the river from the delta, mostly due to the construction of flood control levees, and pervasive hydrological disruption of the deltaic plain. There is presently a large-scale State-Federal program to restore the delta that includes construction of water control structures in the flood control levees to divert river water into deteriorating wetlands and pumping of dredged sediment, often for long distances, for marsh creation. Global climate change and decreasing availability and increasing cost of energy are likely to have important implications for delta restoration. Coastal restoration efforts will have to be more intensive to offset the impacts of climate change including accelerated sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. Future coastal restoration efforts should also focus on less energy-intensive, ecologically engineered management techniques that use the energies of nature as much as possible. Diversions may be as important for controlling salinity as for providing sediments and nutrients for restoring coastal wetlands. Energy-intensive pumping-dredged sediments for coastal restoration will likely become much more expensive in the future.

Louisiana↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Climate change and dissolved organic carbon export to the Gulf of Maine

Ongoing climate change is affecting the concentration, export (flux), and timing of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported to the Gulf of Maine (GoM) through changes in hydrologic regime. DOC export was calculated for water years 1950 through 2013 for 20 rivers and for water years 1930 through 2013 for 14 rivers draining to the GoM. DOC export was also estimated for the 21st century based on climate and hydrologic modeling in a previously published study. DOC export was calculated by using the regression model LOADEST to fit seasonally adjusted concentration discharge (C-Q) relations. Our results are an analysis of the sensitivity of DOC export to changes in hydrologic conditions over time since land cover and vegetation were held constant over time. Despite large interannual variability, all rivers had increasing DOC export during winter and these trends were significant ( p < 0.05) in 10 out of 20 rivers for 1950 to 2013 and in 13 out of 14 rivers for 1930 to 2013. All rivers also had increasing annual export of DOC although fewer trends were statistically significant than for winter export. Projections for DOC export during the 21st century were variable depending on the climate model and greenhouse gas emission scenario that affected future river discharge through effects on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The most consistent result was a significant increase in DOC export in winter in all model-by-emission scenarios. DOC export was projected to decrease during the summer in all model-by-emission scenarios, with statistically significant decreases in half of the scenarios.

Maine↗